92 Comments

Updated BB-Ref pre play-in odds....

#6: 0.1%

#7: 1.1%

#8: 4.8%

#9: 27.0%

#10: 67.0%

We'll probably see #9 jump up to 70-80% if we can take down LA tomorrow. Gonna need some help to get from there to #8.

Expand full comment

Looks like prob 20% chance of 8 if they win out, fwiw

Expand full comment

Whoa. I though Sleepy Steve's 207-39 record in his first three seasons coaching was impressive, but Dawn Staley leading South Carolina to 109-3 in the past three seasons (with two titles) is pretty incredible, too.

Expand full comment

I don't follow college basketball much, does she achieve this remarkable record while having way more talent than others?

If its a function of both coaching and talent, then looking at her resume, I really think we should strive to bring her in to the Warriors.

Expand full comment

The Warriors tried to bring her in already, she declined

Expand full comment

Wouldn't that be a big downgrade for her, unless it's replacing Kerr? That rhymed

Expand full comment

Why would going from being a head coach at a great college basketball program to being an assistant coach at the best basketball league in the world under one of the greatest coaches of all time be a downgrade?

Especially when you consider coaching for the Warriors would be a stepping stone toward a future head coaching job.

Expand full comment

Like when Kerr steps down in 2-5 years…

Expand full comment

All 5 of her starters from last year moved on, so she was starting with a brand new team, and all they did was win every game this season. Clearly the top programs get better players, but to me that says something about her ability to coach. I will admit to being a huge DS stan.

Expand full comment

One thing that is generally true is that white coaches get branded as X's and O's coaches and black coaches get branded as player coaches. Staley herself responded to the claim although without bringing up the obvious subtext:

> "People think I’m just a player’s coach and not an X’s and O’s coach. If we’re not an X’ing and O’ing staff, how are we beating the X’ing and O’ing coaches, programs?

> I really don’t care as long as we keep winning championships."

Expand full comment

GSW is 25-19 with Kuminga as a starter, 12-15 when he comes off the bench. Not sure what it means with all the other variables, but worth considering.

Expand full comment

6-1 when he doesn’t play at all, if one wanted to complete that analysis.

Expand full comment

I missed the game. How were the TJD-Green-JK minutes? Were there any?

Expand full comment

The betting line was -12.5

Our bench in 3 mins garbage time, made lots ppl jumped off their balcony

Expand full comment

I like that the word ‘degenerate’ almost always appears before ‘gambler’, and rarely appears anywhere else.

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

Hitler and his crew used it (or its German equiv.) before "art" to describe interesting, contemporary art that spoke to the 20th century human condition (as opposed to, like, the traditional images of idyllic castles on lakes, lily white madonnas and child, etc. that Adolf liked to paint).

But you're right, in modern parlance, it seems to be ~90% attached to "gambler." Kinda like how you never hear "boggle" in any expression except "boggles the mind"...

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

Kuminga in postgame: "I wasn't concerned about coming off the bench. Like we always say, like coach always says, as long as you go in there, you give all you got, they gonna keep you in there."

Reporter: "Has Kerr talked to you about starting or coming off the bench?"

Kuminga: "If everything is moving well, why would you want to go away from everything moving well, we're just gonna stick with what helps us win."

...

Awaiting the parsing of these quotes by those wishing to view JK as a malcontent who always bitches about starting and playing time.

Expand full comment

I don't recall anyone here thinking any of that of JK, just that what Steve Kerr is doing, which is pairing Dray and TJD in the starting lineup, is working and has the team rolling, particularly on the defensive end. Unfortunately for JK, that puts him in the second unit, but fortunately he's so talented that it won't matter and he'll still earn a bunch of minutes as long as he's scoring, defending and rebounding(!), which he showed tonight.

Expand full comment
author

There has been some buzz about how Kuminga should take it as an insult that he's not starting. I had complete confidence JK wasn't going to make it a big deal since GSW is winning and he's still getting an important role.

Expand full comment

THAT, is maturity...

Expand full comment

I guess people are feeling insecure on his behalf, which I find really weird

Expand full comment

I have always felt that Poole was very much responsible for JK's feeling slighted. (Misery loves company.) I will give the vets, particulary CP, the credit for straightening him out.

Expand full comment

He is still a very young kid, with a very mature game...

Expand full comment

hmmm, "very mature" is a little strong. He's getting better, but "mature" suggests we won't see growth the next few years. Frankly, when he has a counter to quick bigs (who tend to block his shot), more of a face-up game and a better 3-point shot, I will be ready to concede "very mature game."

Expand full comment
Apr 9·edited Apr 9

Relative to other kids his AGE with 0 or very little college experience, while scoring at 20ppg clip, playing superb defense, rebounding, and making excellent playmaking decisions for his teammates. If he can maintain that level of maturity in his game for another 20 games, we WILL make a playoff run. I do not think he will stop improving his game, either, as he gains more experience. Before he got hurt, his mature game was showing, had the entire NBA talking about his emergence, filled a needed void in the team's interior game, and he was a starter. His absence enabled Kerr to give TJD starts and more PT, discovering in the process his effectiveness with DRAY as mini-twin-tower combo, and a much-needed option with the emergence of do-all big men in the NBA. Nice options to have.

Expand full comment

I was really impressed with his decision-making last night - made some great passes rather than forcing up contested shots

Expand full comment

Dubs really cooled off on the long ball. Started 11/19 and then finished 3/16

Expand full comment

A

Expand full comment

I missed the game but I like the score.

Expand full comment

JK was awesome tonight…

Expand full comment

I can’t believe people want to trade him

Expand full comment

Can’t have guys stealing minutes from 35 year-old Draymond, tho

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

I’d trade him straight up for Giannis or Wemby tho… but yeah…

Expand full comment

Or bench even

Expand full comment

Some people just don’t know ball

Expand full comment

Any indication on whether Wiggs will play in Lakers game?

Expand full comment

Man… I hope so. We need Good Wiggins for the Lakers game.

Expand full comment

I'd love to see JK on LeBron. We could finally get some data on the question of whether he might have fared better in that playoff game than the fractured rib version of Wiggins.

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

Though in his post-game interview KERR confirmed my notion the MAVS loss was pivotal in his priorities in preparation for play-in game(s) (rest/heal/game preparedness), he made it clear we'll take every win we can. I am also with KERR in his stating TJD will be starting with GREEN (the latter being the KEY 2-WAY TEAM COG for the rest of the 'Ship/Dynastic GRAVITY starters (STEPH/KLAY/WIGGS). Nonetheless, PLAYOFFS will be a different ANIMAL and I hope he is open to JK starts with GREEN at center, as the situation may require; he needs communicate that to JK. Although after the 1st 25 games, to KERR's great credit, he stuck by WIGGS, I wish he had done the same with KLAY for 4 reasons: 1. It takes KLAY that long to find his best self. 2. Dropping KLAY to the bench disrupted the winning DYNASTIC GRAVITY. 3. IT KEPT PODZ from developing at the pure PG position/running the team which he will have to PLAY IN THE PLAYOFFS as he is one PAUL/STEPH injury/missed game away. 4. We lost at least a month of 2D HALF OF SEASON-PEAK PERFORMANCE-KLAY, slowing down starting unit development after all the injury/suspensions/experimentation adjustments (not to mention losing games). I sure hope KERR understands KLAY need be on the floor TOGETHER with DRAY as much as possible for his best performance, and, ALSO with STEPH for max gravity. IMPACT; it also frees/facilitates WIGGS AND TJD TO DO THEIR THING.

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

So with the Wolves beating the Lakers, the Dubs are guaranteed #9 if they win out. They could also pass up the Kings and Pels if each of those goes 1-3 the rest of the way.

Of course, there is also the possibility of a 3-way or 4-way tiebreaker. First criterion is overall record against each of the teams in the tiebreaker. If Dubs tied with the Lakers and Kings for 8-10 with 47-35 records, Dubs would be 5-3 against the Lakers/Kings, Kings would be 6-2, and Lakers would be 1-7, so Kings would get #8, Dubs #9, Lakers #10.

For a four-way tie at 47-35, Dubs would have to win out (including beating the Pels), Lakers would lose to the Dubs but beat the Pels and Memphis, Kings would need to win 2 of their last 4, and the Pels would need to go 1-1 against the Kings and Blazers. Head to head records:

Dubs: 7-4

Kings: 6-6, plus result of Kings/Pels game

Pels: 6-5, plus result of Kings/Pels game

Lakers: 4-8

So Dubs would get #7, Kings or Pels #8-9, depending on their final game against each other, and Lakers #10.

Could get interesting. Now Dubs just have to keep winning.

Expand full comment

Thanks for doing the math! That 4 way tie would be a dream come true. What's even crazier is that the Suns could also go 1-3 in this scenario, with the lone win coming against the Kings, to fall into a 5 way tie!

Expand full comment

I think Tuesday is a big game from seeding perspective for Dubs.

Even if lose, I don't think we can throw in the towel for remaining 3 games.

Expand full comment

Why? If they lose they’re all but locked in to the #10 seed. Could be a great time to rest guys.

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

So, if the Warriors win out, they are guaranteed the 9th seed or better - would need Kings to go 1-3 or Pelicans to go 1-2 in the 3 non-Warriors games to jump them. Considering they play each other, very slim chance of both happening. So, most likely 9th, small chance of 8th, tiny tiny chance of 7th.

If the Warriors lose to the Lakers, they can't pass them, and it would take Kings or Pelicans losing the rest of their games to pass (and, see above, they play each other). So, a Lakers loss essentially locks them into 10th with a very small chance at 9th and eliminates them from 7th or 8th.

Expand full comment

That's a better result than I expected. Ws have to control what they can control. Keep winning and let the rest take care of itself.

Still, I'll crack up if the Ws make a substantial leap in the standings. The talking heads would be apoplectic.

Expand full comment

Or Suns to go 0-4

Expand full comment

So we hope the pelicans beat the Kings but lose the rest of their games. If we win out, we’ll be in a decent position

Expand full comment

Or Pels losing games against Kings (let's hope for a double OT), us and Lakers would be helpful too

Expand full comment
Apr 8·edited Apr 8

That knee looked just fine, as I think Kalena said. So glad to see it.

Expand full comment

Oh hey, Naz Reid smokes other teams too ? Thought he just did that to the Dubs.

Expand full comment

Must be nice having 2 of the best shooting bigs on the team.

Expand full comment

28 points, 11/13 FGs, 6/7 threes, 0/2 FTs

Expand full comment