Win or lose, that game was a classic. Well, here we go, again, tonight, for all the marbles, a playoff spot and a crack at HOUSTON. Second chances are rare these days; LOLakers and T-Wolves helped us produce a plethora of them. Hope we got one more left in us, but, this time, we gonna have to help ourselves while folks are hurting...Any news on BUTLER/STEPH injuries?
Let's quarrel about something else for a bit. The Athletic has announced its awards. What would you argue with?
MVP: Shai, next up Jokic, Giannis, Tatum, Donovan Mitchell.
All NBA First team: Shai Jokic Tatum Giannis LeBron. Second team: Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Steph, Ant, Evan Mobley. Third team: Halliburton, J-Will, Cade, JJJ, KAT
DPOY votes, in order: Amen, Mobley, Dyson Daniels.
For me, Dunleavy should get some GM love. Pelinka lucks into a trade and gets an award, my ass. Or give it to Presti for life because not only is that a hell of a roster but more good stuff is coming for the Thunder. Jokic is my MVP but I can live with SGA I guess. I don't watch enough of the other teams to really get a read on DPOY. It's a tough one because as Draymond says, the stats don't tell the story, you have to see the games. Still, I respect Amen as a choice. I want Steph on the first all NBA team instead of Tatum but I can't say that's a slam dunk, more of a homer choice. You?
LeBron on the first team is utter horseshit. By EPM, the self-styled King was the freaking #70 ranked player in the NBA this season, as the Lakers were literally outscored by their opponents with him on the floor, and much better with him on the bench.
Can’t take anything else they say seriously after seeing that.
In that case I REALLY and not just a smidge wish we were facing them and not Houston in the playoffs. Because I already like their backcourt defense against our main weapon, and if LeBron isn't all he's cracked up to me they are pretty vulnerable.
If you give him the award, some nice big trophy with gold and crystal and whatnot to put on the mantlepice, he'll just go to the pawn shop and trade it for a serviceable set of wooden bookends.
Pretty similar numbers across the board, except for salary. Buddy just under 9M, Klay just under 16M. Klay was a starter for DAL, but on GS they would ideally have had the same role (which Klay rejected). Klay probably takes better advantage of Steph's gravity if he stays.
I think the 2-pointers for Buddy are the fast-break points he gets at the rim now and then. Those would be hard for Klay to replicate. Buddy is a lot faster down the court.
I actually thought Kerr’s gameplan was solid overall, except for benching Moody the last 15 minutes in favor of GP2. Made zero sense in the 4th, and even less in OT when everyone was gassed. At least defenses have to respect Moody from three, even if he’s hesitant or cold
I know all the talk is about Kuminga not playing, but I'm more surprised Gui got no run. I think he was checking in at one point and Kerr pulled him back. In a game where we were giving up a bunch of 2nd chance opportunities, you would think someone as active as Gui would be beneficial. Kerr probably was worried he'd make some bad mistakes as he can do from time to time though. It's unfortunate that GP2 did that anyways with the 3 point foul
Kuminga, Gui - and also Moody in the second half and OT.
We saw Post and while he did one or two good things, it's fair to say he wasn't a positive contributor. But we didn't even see Gui or Kuminga; and when Moody was playing well in the second half we didn't see him in the fourth quarter of overtime. Those things don't jibe with the team we have been seeing winning.
Explanations like "Kerr knows things" or "Kuminga isn't as good as you think" or "Gui is inexperience" are all arguable, but so are positions like "Gui and Kuminga have been contributing, we've all been watching that. That was not a mirage."
[Dua] Since it looks like all the rumors are coming true, the final bit of intel have on this is that ownership will mandate Dumars to keep Willie Green and trade Zion. This is what I have heard. It's possible the Phoenix situation impacts Willie Green, but this is the plan I'm hearing.
I’m still reeling a little about JK getting no minutes.
Just because Kerr and staff make that hard decision, I don’t automatically assume they’re right. But I also acknowledge they know 100 times as much about basketball than me and see 100 times more of JK’s play than we do. So I don’t jump to the conclusion that just because I don’t understand a move, that therefore the staff are idiots.
If you want to seriously analyze things, you have to wonder what’s happening behind the scenes, what they’re seeing, what analytics they’re looking at, what they’re hearing from the other players and leaders, what tradeoffs they’re balancing. There’s a lot we don’t know.
And it does make me think there is no way back from this. Unless JK comes back to have an effective role in the postseason, you have to figure JK’s camp will demand a trade.
My optimistic take is that JK has played really well against the Rockets over the past several years. Maybe it was just matchup based—if they make it to the rockets series, I could see JK playing a lot. If works out like that, and this was just a 1-game choice, I think it’s recoverable. But even then, the Jimmy/JK/Dray fit issues loom large as you look at the cap into the future.
If JK is benched for the post season without ever getting on the floor, I don’t think the relationship recovers.
The whiplash between “he’s our starter for the future” a few months ago and now is intense.
I'm glad Moody has proved me wrong wo were at least not 0-for, for some drafts a few years back but JK and ALWAYS seemed lost out there and it's only when he's going down hill with a path that he looks promising.
Low BB IQ plus lack of any real organized play early on in his development leads me to think he's on the same trajectory as Wiseman, it's just a slower burn.
Given the BBIQ, if JK got injured and lost even 5% of his athleticism, I'm not sure he could stay in the League. Another reason to get what we can in return for a S&T this offseason.
I'm reeling with you. Do you know of any other instances in playoff-level basketball where a guy who is arguably your sixth man, maybe seventh, is just told before the game not to take off the T-shirt?
I'm struggling to remember if I've ever seen it. Playoff rotations tighten up, to be sure. But this seems like not tight but strangled.
I was going to post the same as you -- that I of course acknoweledge that Kerr and staff know a million times more about the game than I do, and that they have access to so much more information. I have no idea for example if they should Kuminga in more pick and rolls or more isos or what. But on this ONE THING, the question of minutes, I think it is fair for say that especially you, and less so me, have a reasonable ability to weigh in. We've watched him play. We know what that looks like. Because sure, it's not the case that you are always wrong and Kerr is always right. But by the same token, it doesn't have to be the case that he is always right and you are always wrong. My sense is that much of what he has done for the Warriors has been amazing, but it is starting to feel a little stale -- opponents know our schemes, and it's just natural for him as a guy who has had success with a certain Steph Draymond vet heavy formula to go with that. I remember Joe Torre putting Mariano Rivera after 20 years of success but now he had lost his stuff and it's like -- human beings go with what has worked, even if it is no longer working.
I don't know what's happening behind the scenes. I also don't know if there's "a way back." Maybe, maybe not. The only thing I feel confident in saying is that Kerr made a mistake in giving a good player zero minutes. Is that such a stretch, to say that?
I think this one is simple. They were playing two of the best ISO players ever, I don't think Kerr felt JK could guard either Kawhi or Harden, and he didn't have possessions to waste confirming that. Post only lasted 10 minutes for the same kind of reason - helpless on defense. I personally don't see JK in the same class of dependable defender as Moody, Podz, or Payton (or Hield in the last half of the season) - certainly not as consistently focused, and it would seem Kerr and Stackhouse agree with me. Kerr and GS leaned into their strength on defense, went short bench, and almost beat the team I think is currently playing the best ball in the league. I don't really see the error. In any event, in a one game winner-take almost all, I highly doubt whether keeping JK happy was on any of the coaches to-do list.
In terms of what they were seeing, what I saw earlier was JK unable to stay in front of Stephon Castle and getting muscled by Devin Vassell in a game where GS could have used the guy lots of people seem to think JK is. And Harden and Leonard (and Powell) are in a different class than the SA guys.
If JK can't deal with that, it is in fact time to trade him. And if the same GS team shows up against Memphis, JK or no, it shouldn't be close.
JK's camp may not have as much leverage as they would like to think. Jimmy Butler is HIM. He can demand a trade (and it's still messy). JK is pretty much a role player right now. He might want to have a conversation with his body double Kevin Knox about how quickly NBA careers can spiral before he gets too demanding. While he may be on some teams' tentative wishlists, he's in a skill/talent/potential category where attitude still matters a lot.
Jk played great defense against Luka and Lebron just a few weeks ago, his poa defense has been pretty good recently, not perfect but I don't agree that you can't even try him a few minutes on kawhi and harden. He has trouble defending quick guards like Castle, Kawhi ain't that
I am not on this train because as you note, Kerr had Hield out there guarding Harden and Kawhi and Powell. JK may not be Scottie Pippen but I am happy to die on a hill saying that he's very much better an on ball and switching defender than Buddy Hield. He's bigger and yet faster, longer and also stronger. Those things matter.
Maybe that's the plan. With Steph and Jimmy taking up over 60% of the payroll, signing JK will mean going back to the luxury tax and possible penalties.
I woulda rather he just gave him a short leash in the first half and if he wasn’t effective sit him in the second half, hopefully this doesn’t kill his confidence
I just feel like there was no margin for error in last night's game, and that Kerr knew that going in, and that the game itself validated that. Kuminga is a player that does not play in a predictable enough manner for you to be able to play him in that type of game.
"Kuminga is a player that does not play in a predictable enough manner "
I agree with this part... and that makes a lot of what we see somewhat understandable.
I am not convinced that we have seen the end of JK with the Warriors. They can sign him, or match an offer for next season. So much will depend on what he may get offered by any other team. His camp may be upset and demand a trade, but as Mycroft wrote not sure about what leverage they might have.
The Ws have put a lot of time into his development, and unpredictability.
Lacob seems to be a primary supporter so it would make sense to me for them to keep him, if the cost is not too high, and see what he can become.
>>>Hall of Famer Joe Dumars is a serious frontrunner to become the lead basketball executive with the New Orleans Pelicans, sources tell ESPN. The Pelicans and Dumars are expected to engage in conversations to finalize a deal by the end of the week<<<
>>>Since it looks like all the rumors are coming true - the final bit of intel have on this whole situation is that ownership will mandate Dumars to keep Willie Green and trade Zion. This is what I have heard.
It's possible the Phoenix situation impacts Willie Green, but this is the plan I am hearing.<<<
I was just investigating this… JK’s max extension would start at something like $38m and Zion is making ~$36m next year. HOWEVER when a player gets signed to a big raise like JK, for trades they only count for 50% of it (Base Year Compensation). And they can’t be aggregated with other players. So it’s impossible.
I think you could trade JK to a team with cap space for a lesser contract. Say $15M. Then aggregate that hypothetical player with Moody and Buddy to get to Zion's contract.
But in the realistic world, the Dubs lost their opportunity to trade JK until after his extension.
In my current estimation, the success of failure of the Jimmy Butler Experience depends on Tuesday's results.
If the Warriors take care of business on Tuesday, I will consider the Jimmy Butler trade a success, even if they don't get past Houston.
However, if the Warriors lose on Tuesday and then either miss the playoffs entirely or do not get past OKC in the first round, then I would rather have kept Wiggins and the pick.
I view the Butler trade as a play to be competitive in the 25-26 season and to salvage what they could for this season having dug a pretty deep hole. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see JK dealt in a sign and trade in the off season to up the ante. The Warriors have one or maybe two seasons before Curry decides to hang it up and start working on getting his PGA Tour card and/or buying an ownership stake in the NC Panthers.
I look at it differently… my views on the randomness of close games are well known, accordingly I try to not judge things on the basis of a single game, especially one where Jimmy will be playing with an injured leg and Steph with an injured shooting hand and (shooting?) butt.
However, if I did, then that Clippers game made me feel the Butler trade was a rousing success because it answered my last question, whether scoring Playoff Jimmy is still in there.
Anyway, I already thought the Jimmy trade was a smash success after the first two weeks because of the way it turbocharged the development of Moody, Post and Podz (and Gui).
It’s hard to remember the level of despair about this team in the days before the trade. There was zero hope that the team could win a first round series — minus 4 Steph miracles — and GSW were on track to not even make the play-in. Now we’re in a place where we’re genuinely disappointed to not go 8-2 during a nightmare marathon road trip with injured Steph.
While the results of individual games are subject to randomness, final results are less so.
If the final result of the Butler trade is missing the playoffs or getting smoked by OKC, I would have rather kept Wiggins and tanked in retrospect.
But, yes, it was great to see that playoff Butler is still a thing, refs willing. And I agree that it was basically a choice between getting him or tanking.
I am not saying that you are wrong, but maybe Dray should rightfully hit his layups before complaining. :)
Note that I am assessing this only selfishly as someone who is going to continue to live and die with this team for the long term.
I was resigned to Curry and Dray basically shutting it down for the rest of season had not trade been made. And I am not entirely sure that they would have been too upset by that prospect. Golf and podcasts beckon.
Why? Do you think that would show that Jimmy is at best a regular season addition, and that the "win now" aspect of the deal was a mirage, and should have been set aside in favor of the "win in the future" aspect of keeping Wiggins?
I feel that the Warriors were in already in a decent position in terms of asset management before the trade, and I looked forward to the Warriors' adding a Podz rookie season level contributor (or even better) to the asset pool in this year's draft, given Dunleavy's drafting track record.
Had the Warriors just decided to tank this season instead of pulling the trigger on the Butler trade, they would have been in a good position to make a deal for perhaps an even more effective player (such as Leonard) next season. And they would have played Kuminga, Moody, Post, Knox, and the two ways as many minutes as possible, which I would have enjoyed seeing because I am curious about their upside. And I would have been excited about the future. There is no better time to be a fan as when your team is moving up with a seemingly brighter future, IMHO.
Of course, if you have even a 10% chance to get to the Finals by making a move, you HAVE to go for it. Facing Houston in round 1 would give the Ws that 10% chance. Facing OKC in the first round after playing two play in games would not. And missing the playoffs entirely by bombing out of the play in games yet again could have been achieved with a younger, cheaper Wiggins rather than an older, more expensive and more declining Butler were that a worthy aspiration.
They wouldn't have played those guys much though because they were playing all those veterans that ended up being traded for Jimmy. The reason that Post has gotten any play, that Santos has gotten a lot of play, and that Podz and Moody have been starters is the Jimmy trade.
This is honestly how I feel. I didn’t even think they’d make the playin with how deep a hole they dug so the fact they’re even here and look as good as they do is saying something.
Just need to keep Steph out of foul trouble next game. And remind Dray not to smoke layups.
The game last night was an absolute thriller against a team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. Disappointed to not come out on top, but watching the stars trade difficult buckets and stops throughout the contest was about as good as it can get for an NBA fan. I love Wiggs, but JB reinvigorated the team during what had become a season slipping away and made the rest of our games must see tv. I will try to be content with getting at least one series for our youngsters to gain the playoff experience going forward. Perhaps it would also mean Kerr offers JK some final opportunities to turn around what has become the only unfortunate narrative surrounding all this imho.
1. I am feeling good about the matchup with Memphis.
2. I would rather the dubs face the Rockets than the Lakers in Round 1.
Yeah it would have been great to a guaranteed spot in the 6th seed, but there are bright sides in the current situation. Just gotta stay healthy, confident and focused. Playoff Steph + Playoff Draymond + Playoff Jimmy = good basketball.
Yesterday was the first time where I felt like the Dubs truly had a 2nd scoring option this year. Jimmy mostly got whatever he wanted while Steph was warming up. Just need our role players to step up even more now
That's why he stayed healthy. If the Spurs were a playoff team, he'd have gotten injured. The basketball gods have declared that CP3 shall never win a ring.
Sam on Light Years with regarding JK (paraphrasing)
* He hasn’t become the player they expected him to be by year four
* People jump on Kerr for the decision to not play him, but that’s a Curry decision as well, or at least Curry approves of it. Kerr takes bullets for a lot of decisions that are as much Curry’s as his.
Kawakami on +/- said similarly - that it wasn’t like rest of team was clamoring for JK to get minutes. He noted that they like what they’ve got with Jimmy.
Just a strange twist of fate it happened when JK was injured. We don’t get to know how things would’ve gone if he hadn’t gotten injured. Maybe the situation brought the inherent style conflicts to the fore and Jimmy’s presence meant they were relieved of having to solve that puzzle.
I mean it makes sense they traded for the same player (albeit much more experienced with a higher BBIQ). Thats Kuminga’s ceiling but he’s not there.
JK could be Jimmy after Jimmy’s contract is up here—the signs are there—but I don’t think it’s going to happen because JK will want to get paid and a chance for starter’s minutes.
Butler almost certainly isn’t JK’s ceiling lol. He’s also a total outlier in terms of development—didn’t play elite high school ball, started at a JUCO, was solid but not a star at Marquette, and didn’t flash real star upside until year 4 or 5, around age 26. Not many players meeting that ascension plan.
I’m talking from the perspective of JK’s skill set and who JB is now, and JK is very similar to JB’s down to the questionable 3 ball.
But like you pointed out, JK is essentially ahead of where JB was at when he was getting drafted. I’m not concerned about JB’s path as much as I am whether JK reaches the ceiling he has the potential to, and whether or not he does with the Dubs.
If you’re arguing JK has a higher ceiling, fair enough. If you’re arguing the ceiling is lower than JB, I disagree with that based on Kuminga’s age alone.
Jimmy's career really came together in his 4th season. He made the All Star team and was Most Improved Player that year, and his scoring increased significantly. He showed signs as a defensive player before that and was way ahead of where JK is in BBIQ but not as a scorer. Maybe JK will get it together in his 5th season but he has work to do.
There are bigger flashes there, and I say this as someone who was really sour on him last year. He’s definitely become a better passer on drives but it’s still too hot to handle, and he’s an improved POA defender but still gets lost on help D.
Also he won’t unlock his game and his ability to stay on the floor until he develops a credible 3 ball. He needs to have positional versatility to play the 3 and the 4 and until then he’s stuck behind Draymond and Jimmy (and possibly Moody or GP2) in crunch time
EDIT: This is also why I hate going for the pure athlete. NBA FOs are arrogant and self-assured enough that they can bring these guys up to speed at a high level despite the fact that you barely ever get practice time in an 82 game season once training camp is over. Even more difficult when the prospect doesn’t have seasoning in college.
That’s why our FO takes int’l prospects or guys with at least 2 years in college or another pro league, and they’re smart to do that
I buy this. I think this is not a unilateral decision. The OGs have enough pull, heck Steve pulled JK off for Gui a couple of nights ago to close, upon Steph calling for it
Unless JK is taking possessions from Steph, I really don't see what his issue would be with JK. I don't think Steph is going to necessarily correlate losses to JK either.
You don’t think Steph has opinions on who should/shouldn’t be playing? He’s got a lot more invested in it than any of us, and we certainly have opinions.
Maybe you didn’t notice it, but it’s been called “a players’ league” for decades. Also, just in case you missed it, players (especially stars) get coaches fired on a pretty regular basis.
Not saying Curry threatens Kerr with getting him fired, but it would be naive to think Kerr doesn’t listen to Steph. Steph himself has said he’s consulted with the brass on big decisions.
In the post-game presser, Steph finessed the question about JK not playing and deferred to the coach. But given all their successful years together, I expect Steph, Draymond, and Kerr discuss these things, and Kerr listens closely to his stars.
Coach Kerr, in his post-game presser, said that JK or any player not playing one game does not indicate they're out of the rotation for other games. We'll see what he does but that's what the man said.
I added two new categories in both the offense and defense stats for both Warriors regular season and post-ASB stats: second chance points, points off turnovers, opponent second chance points, and opponent points off turnovers.
https://dubnationhq.com/p/defcon-dub-whats-your-tier-on-the I'M HERE! I'M HIM!
Win or lose, that game was a classic. Well, here we go, again, tonight, for all the marbles, a playoff spot and a crack at HOUSTON. Second chances are rare these days; LOLakers and T-Wolves helped us produce a plethora of them. Hope we got one more left in us, but, this time, we gonna have to help ourselves while folks are hurting...Any news on BUTLER/STEPH injuries?
Let's quarrel about something else for a bit. The Athletic has announced its awards. What would you argue with?
MVP: Shai, next up Jokic, Giannis, Tatum, Donovan Mitchell.
All NBA First team: Shai Jokic Tatum Giannis LeBron. Second team: Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Steph, Ant, Evan Mobley. Third team: Halliburton, J-Will, Cade, JJJ, KAT
DPOY votes, in order: Amen, Mobley, Dyson Daniels.
ROY: Stephon Castle, Zaccharie Risacher, Matas Buzelis
Executive of the Year: Rob Pelinka, Lakers (LOL) , Koby Altman, Cavaliers, Sam Presti, Thunder
Most improved: Dyson, Amen, Cade
Sixth man: Payton Pritchard, Celtics, Malik Beasley, Pistons, De’Andre Hunter, Cavaliers
For me, Dunleavy should get some GM love. Pelinka lucks into a trade and gets an award, my ass. Or give it to Presti for life because not only is that a hell of a roster but more good stuff is coming for the Thunder. Jokic is my MVP but I can live with SGA I guess. I don't watch enough of the other teams to really get a read on DPOY. It's a tough one because as Draymond says, the stats don't tell the story, you have to see the games. Still, I respect Amen as a choice. I want Steph on the first all NBA team instead of Tatum but I can't say that's a slam dunk, more of a homer choice. You?
LeBron on the first team is utter horseshit. By EPM, the self-styled King was the freaking #70 ranked player in the NBA this season, as the Lakers were literally outscored by their opponents with him on the floor, and much better with him on the bench.
Can’t take anything else they say seriously after seeing that.
I a-greek with you....he did hold them up there for a while while DAVIS was out, but that is not enough...
In that case I REALLY and not just a smidge wish we were facing them and not Houston in the playoffs. Because I already like their backcourt defense against our main weapon, and if LeBron isn't all he's cracked up to me they are pretty vulnerable.
Shouldn't exec of the year be Nico, as the only one with choice in the matter?
If you give him the award, some nice big trophy with gold and crystal and whatnot to put on the mantlepice, he'll just go to the pawn shop and trade it for a serviceable set of wooden bookends.
Buddy vs Klay comp for the full season: https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=hieldbu01&year_min=2025&player_id1=thompkl01&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_source=bbr&utm_id=thompkl01&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison
Pretty similar numbers across the board, except for salary. Buddy just under 9M, Klay just under 16M. Klay was a starter for DAL, but on GS they would ideally have had the same role (which Klay rejected). Klay probably takes better advantage of Steph's gravity if he stays.
BS ''comparison''...different systems. different roles...KLAY played SF most of season....
Pretty insane how close they are across the board. Buddy's a little better on 2's, Klay a little better on 3s. Minutes played are very close.
Thanks! That was enlightening.
Really? Enlightening?
Yes. Buddy's pretty comparable.
Lol...OK, they both play ball, I guess...
I think the 2-pointers for Buddy are the fast-break points he gets at the rim now and then. Those would be hard for Klay to replicate. Buddy is a lot faster down the court.
I actually thought Kerr’s gameplan was solid overall, except for benching Moody the last 15 minutes in favor of GP2. Made zero sense in the 4th, and even less in OT when everyone was gassed. At least defenses have to respect Moody from three, even if he’s hesitant or cold
Gary's outplayed Moody fir some time.
The difference on wide open threes has been disturbingly minimal.
Admittedly in this game Moody was more impactful.
"KUMINGA KUMINGA KUMINGA"
jeebus
I know all the talk is about Kuminga not playing, but I'm more surprised Gui got no run. I think he was checking in at one point and Kerr pulled him back. In a game where we were giving up a bunch of 2nd chance opportunities, you would think someone as active as Gui would be beneficial. Kerr probably was worried he'd make some bad mistakes as he can do from time to time though. It's unfortunate that GP2 did that anyways with the 3 point foul
Kuminga, Gui - and also Moody in the second half and OT.
We saw Post and while he did one or two good things, it's fair to say he wasn't a positive contributor. But we didn't even see Gui or Kuminga; and when Moody was playing well in the second half we didn't see him in the fourth quarter of overtime. Those things don't jibe with the team we have been seeing winning.
Explanations like "Kerr knows things" or "Kuminga isn't as good as you think" or "Gui is inexperience" are all arguable, but so are positions like "Gui and Kuminga have been contributing, we've all been watching that. That was not a mirage."
r/nba
1 hr. ago
Goosedukee
emoji:bkn-4: Nets
[Dua] Since it looks like all the rumors are coming true, the final bit of intel have on this is that ownership will mandate Dumars to keep Willie Green and trade Zion. This is what I have heard. It's possible the Phoenix situation impacts Willie Green, but this is the plan I'm hearing.
I’m still reeling a little about JK getting no minutes.
Just because Kerr and staff make that hard decision, I don’t automatically assume they’re right. But I also acknowledge they know 100 times as much about basketball than me and see 100 times more of JK’s play than we do. So I don’t jump to the conclusion that just because I don’t understand a move, that therefore the staff are idiots.
If you want to seriously analyze things, you have to wonder what’s happening behind the scenes, what they’re seeing, what analytics they’re looking at, what they’re hearing from the other players and leaders, what tradeoffs they’re balancing. There’s a lot we don’t know.
And it does make me think there is no way back from this. Unless JK comes back to have an effective role in the postseason, you have to figure JK’s camp will demand a trade.
My optimistic take is that JK has played really well against the Rockets over the past several years. Maybe it was just matchup based—if they make it to the rockets series, I could see JK playing a lot. If works out like that, and this was just a 1-game choice, I think it’s recoverable. But even then, the Jimmy/JK/Dray fit issues loom large as you look at the cap into the future.
If JK is benched for the post season without ever getting on the floor, I don’t think the relationship recovers.
The whiplash between “he’s our starter for the future” a few months ago and now is intense.
I'm glad Moody has proved me wrong wo were at least not 0-for, for some drafts a few years back but JK and ALWAYS seemed lost out there and it's only when he's going down hill with a path that he looks promising.
Low BB IQ plus lack of any real organized play early on in his development leads me to think he's on the same trajectory as Wiseman, it's just a slower burn.
Given the BBIQ, if JK got injured and lost even 5% of his athleticism, I'm not sure he could stay in the League. Another reason to get what we can in return for a S&T this offseason.
I'm reeling with you. Do you know of any other instances in playoff-level basketball where a guy who is arguably your sixth man, maybe seventh, is just told before the game not to take off the T-shirt?
I'm struggling to remember if I've ever seen it. Playoff rotations tighten up, to be sure. But this seems like not tight but strangled.
I was going to post the same as you -- that I of course acknoweledge that Kerr and staff know a million times more about the game than I do, and that they have access to so much more information. I have no idea for example if they should Kuminga in more pick and rolls or more isos or what. But on this ONE THING, the question of minutes, I think it is fair for say that especially you, and less so me, have a reasonable ability to weigh in. We've watched him play. We know what that looks like. Because sure, it's not the case that you are always wrong and Kerr is always right. But by the same token, it doesn't have to be the case that he is always right and you are always wrong. My sense is that much of what he has done for the Warriors has been amazing, but it is starting to feel a little stale -- opponents know our schemes, and it's just natural for him as a guy who has had success with a certain Steph Draymond vet heavy formula to go with that. I remember Joe Torre putting Mariano Rivera after 20 years of success but now he had lost his stuff and it's like -- human beings go with what has worked, even if it is no longer working.
I don't know what's happening behind the scenes. I also don't know if there's "a way back." Maybe, maybe not. The only thing I feel confident in saying is that Kerr made a mistake in giving a good player zero minutes. Is that such a stretch, to say that?
I think this one is simple. They were playing two of the best ISO players ever, I don't think Kerr felt JK could guard either Kawhi or Harden, and he didn't have possessions to waste confirming that. Post only lasted 10 minutes for the same kind of reason - helpless on defense. I personally don't see JK in the same class of dependable defender as Moody, Podz, or Payton (or Hield in the last half of the season) - certainly not as consistently focused, and it would seem Kerr and Stackhouse agree with me. Kerr and GS leaned into their strength on defense, went short bench, and almost beat the team I think is currently playing the best ball in the league. I don't really see the error. In any event, in a one game winner-take almost all, I highly doubt whether keeping JK happy was on any of the coaches to-do list.
In terms of what they were seeing, what I saw earlier was JK unable to stay in front of Stephon Castle and getting muscled by Devin Vassell in a game where GS could have used the guy lots of people seem to think JK is. And Harden and Leonard (and Powell) are in a different class than the SA guys.
If JK can't deal with that, it is in fact time to trade him. And if the same GS team shows up against Memphis, JK or no, it shouldn't be close.
JK's camp may not have as much leverage as they would like to think. Jimmy Butler is HIM. He can demand a trade (and it's still messy). JK is pretty much a role player right now. He might want to have a conversation with his body double Kevin Knox about how quickly NBA careers can spiral before he gets too demanding. While he may be on some teams' tentative wishlists, he's in a skill/talent/potential category where attitude still matters a lot.
Jk played great defense against Luka and Lebron just a few weeks ago, his poa defense has been pretty good recently, not perfect but I don't agree that you can't even try him a few minutes on kawhi and harden. He has trouble defending quick guards like Castle, Kawhi ain't that
I am not on this train because as you note, Kerr had Hield out there guarding Harden and Kawhi and Powell. JK may not be Scottie Pippen but I am happy to die on a hill saying that he's very much better an on ball and switching defender than Buddy Hield. He's bigger and yet faster, longer and also stronger. Those things matter.
I have no opinion on the trade issues.
Maybe that's the plan. With Steph and Jimmy taking up over 60% of the payroll, signing JK will mean going back to the luxury tax and possible penalties.
Well that and he's just not worth it.
I woulda rather he just gave him a short leash in the first half and if he wasn’t effective sit him in the second half, hopefully this doesn’t kill his confidence
I just feel like there was no margin for error in last night's game, and that Kerr knew that going in, and that the game itself validated that. Kuminga is a player that does not play in a predictable enough manner for you to be able to play him in that type of game.
"Kuminga is a player that does not play in a predictable enough manner "
I agree with this part... and that makes a lot of what we see somewhat understandable.
I am not convinced that we have seen the end of JK with the Warriors. They can sign him, or match an offer for next season. So much will depend on what he may get offered by any other team. His camp may be upset and demand a trade, but as Mycroft wrote not sure about what leverage they might have.
The Ws have put a lot of time into his development, and unpredictability.
Lacob seems to be a primary supporter so it would make sense to me for them to keep him, if the cost is not too high, and see what he can become.
>>>Hall of Famer Joe Dumars is a serious frontrunner to become the lead basketball executive with the New Orleans Pelicans, sources tell ESPN. The Pelicans and Dumars are expected to engage in conversations to finalize a deal by the end of the week<<<
https://www.espn.com/contributor/shams-charania/d3aed7f12d878
>>>Since it looks like all the rumors are coming true - the final bit of intel have on this whole situation is that ownership will mandate Dumars to keep Willie Green and trade Zion. This is what I have heard.
It's possible the Phoenix situation impacts Willie Green, but this is the plan I am hearing.<<<
https://bsky.app/profile/fearthebrown.bsky.social/post/3lms55efj522d
>>>The Denver Nuggets have named Ben Tenzer as Interim General Manager.<<<
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:e3ktrbooe3mildj4hhwhsvtc/post/3lms5q42c5k24
JK for Zion as the ultimate Celebrini Special?
I was just investigating this… JK’s max extension would start at something like $38m and Zion is making ~$36m next year. HOWEVER when a player gets signed to a big raise like JK, for trades they only count for 50% of it (Base Year Compensation). And they can’t be aggregated with other players. So it’s impossible.
*if Perks disagrees, he is right.
I think you could trade JK to a team with cap space for a lesser contract. Say $15M. Then aggregate that hypothetical player with Moody and Buddy to get to Zion's contract.
But in the realistic world, the Dubs lost their opportunity to trade JK until after his extension.
In my current estimation, the success of failure of the Jimmy Butler Experience depends on Tuesday's results.
If the Warriors take care of business on Tuesday, I will consider the Jimmy Butler trade a success, even if they don't get past Houston.
However, if the Warriors lose on Tuesday and then either miss the playoffs entirely or do not get past OKC in the first round, then I would rather have kept Wiggins and the pick.
I view the Butler trade as a play to be competitive in the 25-26 season and to salvage what they could for this season having dug a pretty deep hole. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see JK dealt in a sign and trade in the off season to up the ante. The Warriors have one or maybe two seasons before Curry decides to hang it up and start working on getting his PGA Tour card and/or buying an ownership stake in the NC Panthers.
I look at it differently… my views on the randomness of close games are well known, accordingly I try to not judge things on the basis of a single game, especially one where Jimmy will be playing with an injured leg and Steph with an injured shooting hand and (shooting?) butt.
However, if I did, then that Clippers game made me feel the Butler trade was a rousing success because it answered my last question, whether scoring Playoff Jimmy is still in there.
Anyway, I already thought the Jimmy trade was a smash success after the first two weeks because of the way it turbocharged the development of Moody, Post and Podz (and Gui).
It’s hard to remember the level of despair about this team in the days before the trade. There was zero hope that the team could win a first round series — minus 4 Steph miracles — and GSW were on track to not even make the play-in. Now we’re in a place where we’re genuinely disappointed to not go 8-2 during a nightmare marathon road trip with injured Steph.
https://dubnationhq.com/p/warriors-lose-to-suns-depress-fanbase
Agree with every single thing you said.
While the results of individual games are subject to randomness, final results are less so.
If the final result of the Butler trade is missing the playoffs or getting smoked by OKC, I would have rather kept Wiggins and tanked in retrospect.
But, yes, it was great to see that playoff Butler is still a thing, refs willing. And I agree that it was basically a choice between getting him or tanking.
I think Dray and Steph would have never supported tanking and could have rightfully asked for a trade.
I am not saying that you are wrong, but maybe Dray should rightfully hit his layups before complaining. :)
Note that I am assessing this only selfishly as someone who is going to continue to live and die with this team for the long term.
I was resigned to Curry and Dray basically shutting it down for the rest of season had not trade been made. And I am not entirely sure that they would have been too upset by that prospect. Golf and podcasts beckon.
Why? Do you think that would show that Jimmy is at best a regular season addition, and that the "win now" aspect of the deal was a mirage, and should have been set aside in favor of the "win in the future" aspect of keeping Wiggins?
I feel that the Warriors were in already in a decent position in terms of asset management before the trade, and I looked forward to the Warriors' adding a Podz rookie season level contributor (or even better) to the asset pool in this year's draft, given Dunleavy's drafting track record.
Had the Warriors just decided to tank this season instead of pulling the trigger on the Butler trade, they would have been in a good position to make a deal for perhaps an even more effective player (such as Leonard) next season. And they would have played Kuminga, Moody, Post, Knox, and the two ways as many minutes as possible, which I would have enjoyed seeing because I am curious about their upside. And I would have been excited about the future. There is no better time to be a fan as when your team is moving up with a seemingly brighter future, IMHO.
Of course, if you have even a 10% chance to get to the Finals by making a move, you HAVE to go for it. Facing Houston in round 1 would give the Ws that 10% chance. Facing OKC in the first round after playing two play in games would not. And missing the playoffs entirely by bombing out of the play in games yet again could have been achieved with a younger, cheaper Wiggins rather than an older, more expensive and more declining Butler were that a worthy aspiration.
They wouldn't have played those guys much though because they were playing all those veterans that ended up being traded for Jimmy. The reason that Post has gotten any play, that Santos has gotten a lot of play, and that Podz and Moody have been starters is the Jimmy trade.
They would have largely shut down the big guns had no trade been made, IMHO, although they may have used some of the traded vets to lead the tank.
This is honestly how I feel. I didn’t even think they’d make the playin with how deep a hole they dug so the fact they’re even here and look as good as they do is saying something.
Just need to keep Steph out of foul trouble next game. And remind Dray not to smoke layups.
The game last night was an absolute thriller against a team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. Disappointed to not come out on top, but watching the stars trade difficult buckets and stops throughout the contest was about as good as it can get for an NBA fan. I love Wiggs, but JB reinvigorated the team during what had become a season slipping away and made the rest of our games must see tv. I will try to be content with getting at least one series for our youngsters to gain the playoff experience going forward. Perhaps it would also mean Kerr offers JK some final opportunities to turn around what has become the only unfortunate narrative surrounding all this imho.
Yeah, that Klay-up Dray-up *really* hurt.
1. I am feeling good about the matchup with Memphis.
2. I would rather the dubs face the Rockets than the Lakers in Round 1.
Yeah it would have been great to a guaranteed spot in the 6th seed, but there are bright sides in the current situation. Just gotta stay healthy, confident and focused. Playoff Steph + Playoff Draymond + Playoff Jimmy = good basketball.
Hoping for a convincing win against Ja and co. tomorrow. 12+ point win please so the heart can rest easy.
** taps sign on wall saying “Always Close Enough To Hurt™” **
Yesterday was the first time where I felt like the Dubs truly had a 2nd scoring option this year. Jimmy mostly got whatever he wanted while Steph was warming up. Just need our role players to step up even more now
CP3 stayed healthy for all 82 games and would have been healthy for the playoffs in a year his team didn't need him to
That's why he stayed healthy. If the Spurs were a playoff team, he'd have gotten injured. The basketball gods have declared that CP3 shall never win a ring.
Sam on Light Years with regarding JK (paraphrasing)
* He hasn’t become the player they expected him to be by year four
* People jump on Kerr for the decision to not play him, but that’s a Curry decision as well, or at least Curry approves of it. Kerr takes bullets for a lot of decisions that are as much Curry’s as his.
Kawakami on +/- said similarly - that it wasn’t like rest of team was clamoring for JK to get minutes. He noted that they like what they’ve got with Jimmy.
Just a strange twist of fate it happened when JK was injured. We don’t get to know how things would’ve gone if he hadn’t gotten injured. Maybe the situation brought the inherent style conflicts to the fore and Jimmy’s presence meant they were relieved of having to solve that puzzle.
I mean it makes sense they traded for the same player (albeit much more experienced with a higher BBIQ). Thats Kuminga’s ceiling but he’s not there.
JK could be Jimmy after Jimmy’s contract is up here—the signs are there—but I don’t think it’s going to happen because JK will want to get paid and a chance for starter’s minutes.
Butler almost certainly isn’t JK’s ceiling lol. He’s also a total outlier in terms of development—didn’t play elite high school ball, started at a JUCO, was solid but not a star at Marquette, and didn’t flash real star upside until year 4 or 5, around age 26. Not many players meeting that ascension plan.
I’m talking from the perspective of JK’s skill set and who JB is now, and JK is very similar to JB’s down to the questionable 3 ball.
But like you pointed out, JK is essentially ahead of where JB was at when he was getting drafted. I’m not concerned about JB’s path as much as I am whether JK reaches the ceiling he has the potential to, and whether or not he does with the Dubs.
If you’re arguing JK has a higher ceiling, fair enough. If you’re arguing the ceiling is lower than JB, I disagree with that based on Kuminga’s age alone.
Jimmy's career really came together in his 4th season. He made the All Star team and was Most Improved Player that year, and his scoring increased significantly. He showed signs as a defensive player before that and was way ahead of where JK is in BBIQ but not as a scorer. Maybe JK will get it together in his 5th season but he has work to do.
Yeah but he would need that BB IQ.
There are bigger flashes there, and I say this as someone who was really sour on him last year. He’s definitely become a better passer on drives but it’s still too hot to handle, and he’s an improved POA defender but still gets lost on help D.
Also he won’t unlock his game and his ability to stay on the floor until he develops a credible 3 ball. He needs to have positional versatility to play the 3 and the 4 and until then he’s stuck behind Draymond and Jimmy (and possibly Moody or GP2) in crunch time
EDIT: This is also why I hate going for the pure athlete. NBA FOs are arrogant and self-assured enough that they can bring these guys up to speed at a high level despite the fact that you barely ever get practice time in an 82 game season once training camp is over. Even more difficult when the prospect doesn’t have seasoning in college.
That’s why our FO takes int’l prospects or guys with at least 2 years in college or another pro league, and they’re smart to do that
I buy this. I think this is not a unilateral decision. The OGs have enough pull, heck Steve pulled JK off for Gui a couple of nights ago to close, upon Steph calling for it
Unless JK is taking possessions from Steph, I really don't see what his issue would be with JK. I don't think Steph is going to necessarily correlate losses to JK either.
You don’t think Steph has opinions on who should/shouldn’t be playing? He’s got a lot more invested in it than any of us, and we certainly have opinions.
who's the coach, again?
Maybe you didn’t notice it, but it’s been called “a players’ league” for decades. Also, just in case you missed it, players (especially stars) get coaches fired on a pretty regular basis.
Not saying Curry threatens Kerr with getting him fired, but it would be naive to think Kerr doesn’t listen to Steph. Steph himself has said he’s consulted with the brass on big decisions.
In the post-game presser, Steph finessed the question about JK not playing and deferred to the coach. But given all their successful years together, I expect Steph, Draymond, and Kerr discuss these things, and Kerr listens closely to his stars.
Coach Kerr, in his post-game presser, said that JK or any player not playing one game does not indicate they're out of the rotation for other games. We'll see what he does but that's what the man said.
I added two new categories in both the offense and defense stats for both Warriors regular season and post-ASB stats: second chance points, points off turnovers, opponent second chance points, and opponent points off turnovers.
Warriors post-ASB stats:
3 in net rating!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Offense:
11 in points scored (117.6)
25 in points in paint (44.5)
11 in fastbreak points (16.4)
7 in second chance points!!!!!!!! (15.9)
1 in points off turnovers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (22.2)
7 in offensive efficiency!!!!!!!!
21 in shooting % (46.6%)
11 in three point % (37.4%)
6 in off. rebounding % !!!!!!!!!! (31.9%)
11 in def. rebounding % (71.2%)
9 in total rebounding % !!! (51.1%)
15 in opponent blocks (4.5)
10 in opponent steals!! (7.7)
2 in assists!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (30.0)
20 in turnovers (14.3)
Defense:
3 in points allowed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (108.2)
4 in opponent points in paint!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (46.4)
11 in opponent fastbreak points (14.2)
3 in opponent second chance points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (12.6)
11 in opponent points off turnovers (16.4)
1 in defensive efficiency!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
16 in opponent shooting % (47.2%)
22 in opponent three point % (37.2%)
18 in blocks (4.3)
1 in steals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (10.6)
7 in opponent assists!!!!!!! (25.2)
1 in opponent turnovers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (17.6)