I think Beli will unfortunately continue to look a little soft, but I think the Bucks will stretch our defensive connection and rotations. So I think we may look like we have taken a step backwards on D with respect to help rotations/close outs, as opposed to looking soft on POA
After tonight, I expect I won't be able to use the talking point that the biggest Warrior home loss this season with or without Draymond was 6 and required an improbable 19 point fourth quarter comeback.
Got a strange feeling we'll kick their asses tonight. Might get an unexpected 20 from D Lee or something crazy like that but I don't think #30 will let us welcome Draymond back with anything less than a 3 game winning streak
Will continuity (PHO, UTA, MIL, MIA, BOS, GSW -old guard) win out over late season roster/rotation changes (GSW youth additions, PHI-BKL talent swap, DEN & LAC return of star injured players)??
My one playoff fear is that, when the pressure is on, Kerr will fall back on old habits and we are going to see lots of minutes from D Lee, JTA, extending Looney physically, etc. rather than let the younger guys play through a few mistakes. Sure, there is continuity there, but not the kind that wins a Chip. The only way we win a Chip this year, imo, is if embrace the wild and bumpy ride where we infuse the continuity of the old guard with extended playing time for the young Stallions. We are not going to win on skill & IQ alone. And the valued experience of veteran role players will not tip the scales in any series against this year's competition. No one reaches the top of the mountain if they are not allowed to climb it. If we win the Chip this year, it will be because the Warrior's coaching staff embraced and blessed the marriage of 'continuity and mayhem'.
I like your concept and I hope coaches give the rookies a chance to adjust game to game in the playoffs. I suspect they will, and if the guys are falling way off the execution curve, they get limited mins. I can see Moody keeping up with in-series adjustments, but JK finding that a little more challenging. I can’t see Lee or JTA bring in the rotation, regardless if what’s happening with the rookies (caveat injuries of course).
Completely agree! JK and Moody just look a lot better than those guys. Moody is shooting well and can defend. JK is able to draw fouls (and knocking down his FTs now) and defend. JTA and Lee can only do one of these things.
On the flip side, D Lee and JTA are the perfect guys to have at the deep end of your bench. Trusted, they know the system, they know what to do, always ready, they give 100% effort. Break glass in case of emergency, but otherwise, wave towels and cheer lead from the sidelines.
As much as I'd like to see us playing the Orlando Magic on Monday, I'm pretty sure the Wizards will be our opponent that night :) Easy to see how Wizards and Magic can lead to confusion.
So the tiny blue ball hurtles through space spinning on its axis at 1000 mph, orbiting the sun at 67k mph, while our solar system whirls around our galaxy at 490k mph. Still, I am obsessed with the Warriors winning tonight.
Mar 12, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball
OT: New 5-minute video from our recent Humpback Whale encounters, which have included a couple of times where the whales swam up so close to Jenny that she could have touched them. It’s as if they see the camera and say “I’m ready for my closeup!” (There’s also a little bonus footage of a Spotted Eagle Ray that was swimming around below us.)
Watching the mom’s with their babies is really cool. Humpback’s have extraordinarily long pec fins (1/3 their body length) and they use them to guide and “hug” the babies.
Intelligence is a loaded word (and really hard to measure in certain species), but it’s generally accepted that great apes (chimps, bonobos, orangutans and gorillas) and whales/dolphins are at the top, although certain birds (crows and parrots) and cephalopods can solve some amazing puzzles, that require creating multi-step plans to carry out. Elephants are also insanely smart.
I’ve read about “culture” as well, and variations in language (dialects), and it seems like their language / songs are super complex , not to mention travel miles. The intelligence word/loaded was reminds me of a really good read titled “intelligence in nature” by Jeremy Narby, and really shifted my idea of what intelligence is.
Thanks Goofus. I forgot how much I love the sound of water gently lapping the side of a boat/kayak. The sound with the images of those beautiful beings is very relaxing in a rather hectic world. Appreciate the brief respite.
Very cool. Just got back from a week in Ka'anapali and I've never seen so many whales from the shore. So wonderful to get to see your video and watch them close-up.
I'd have Otto in the closing line up. If Wiggs is still sliding then maybe JP. I just feel that size will be an issue against these bigger teams if the 3 guard line up is not going crazy like the Denver game. Enter Moody or JK.
We've really missed OPJ the last few games - I'd love him in that final lineup with Dray/Klay/Steph/Poole. He plays good D, rebounds well, and could further help space the floor to open things up for everyone. I think it's easy to forget how solid a player he is and how he fits the Dubs' scheme so well.
As Duby alluded to, JP is looking more and more like a lock for closing lineups, regardless of what Wiggins is doing/not doing.
It’s very likely to be Steph, Klay, Poole, Draymond and one of Looney/Kuminga/Wiggins/OPJ/Iggy or perhaps even Moody if he keeps making so many shots and so few mistakes.
It'll be situational in my opinion. They'll need size and rebounding for sure and Otto is your guy there. Will JP's defense be adequate enough? Moody is the better defender and has been knocking down shots. So I see it depending on how the game is going. If you need to protect a lead then you need Wiggs/Looney/Moody/JK/GPII or even JTA.
So Wiggins is a career 72.4% free-thrower. In March he's shooting 22.2%, which is 50.2% below his career average.
According to the principle of regression to the mean, he'll soon have a month where he's shooting 50.2% above his career average. Therefore, sometime during the playoffs he's going to have a breakout FT shooting month where he shoots at 122.6%!!!
I haven't yet, but stay tuned! Honestly, I don't see why players aren't purposefully having bad shooting stretches so that they can save up all of their good shooting for when it matters the most!
I know, this is pedantic, but it is incorrect to say that 22.2% is 50.2% below his career average. Wiggs is shooting 50.2 "percentage points" below his career average but he is shooting 30.6% of his career average (22.2 is 30.6% of 72.4) so he is shooting 69.4% below his career average.
As long as we give a good fight, I’m okay with any outcome. If they play like the last two games, they have a chance.
I don’t feel a win tonight. I just think Milwaukee has too much fire power. I do think we will play tough, just not sure shots will fall.
Come next week though, I don’t see us losing a game ever again. That’s my prediction.
I agree, although we'll probably drop a few random games. But I see a Warriors/Nets final.
Warriors gonna look soft tonight
I think Beli will unfortunately continue to look a little soft, but I think the Bucks will stretch our defensive connection and rotations. So I think we may look like we have taken a step backwards on D with respect to help rotations/close outs, as opposed to looking soft on POA
They better watch out for Coach Draymond, though
Bucks stats:
Offense:
1 in points scored!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (114.6)
25 in points in paint (43.9)
9 in fastbreak points!!!! (13.3)
3 in offensive efficiency!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12 in shooting % (46.4%)
5 in three point % !!!!!!!!!!!! (36.6%)
8 in two point % !!!!!! (54.1%)
14 in off. rebound % (23.3%)
6 in def. rebound % !!!!!!!!!! (78.5%)
7 in total rebound % !!!!!!! (51.0%)
9 in opponent blocks!!! (4.3)
8 in opponent steals!!!!! (7.2)
18 in assists (23.6)
11 in turnovers (13.5)
Defense:
16 in points allowed (110.5)
4 in opponent points in paint!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (43.3)
3 in opponent fastbreak points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (10.9)
14 in defensive efficiency
9 in opponent shooting % !!!! (45.1%)
14 in opponent three point % (34.8%)
19 in opponent two point % (53.5%)
28 in blocks (4.0)
13 in steals (7.6)
23 in opponent assists (25.3)
23 in opponent turnovers (13.2)
Three pointers seem to be the key here. If the Bucks hit a bunch of them, it's game over for the Warriors.
Pretty much. Let Giannis do whatever he wants in the paint. I don't want the other guys like Middleton, Matthews, and Holiday to hit a bunch of shots.
GS FT% smackdown
1. Poole .9235
2. Thompson .9211
3. Curry .9207
I got my money on Steph.
And the lowest 3?
Steph higher cuz he takes the technical FTs.
FTr (FTA per FGA)
Poole: 0.236
Klay: 0.118
Steph: 0.244
After tonight, I expect I won't be able to use the talking point that the biggest Warrior home loss this season with or without Draymond was 6 and required an improbable 19 point fourth quarter comeback.
If the schedule Gods are on our side, MIL is finishing an 8 city backtobacktobacktobacktobacktobacktobacktoback road trip.
Sadly just the opposite. They’ve had two days off and a nice relaxing weekend in SF. Here’s hoping they partied too hard last night!
Got a strange feeling we'll kick their asses tonight. Might get an unexpected 20 from D Lee or something crazy like that but I don't think #30 will let us welcome Draymond back with anything less than a 3 game winning streak
Gold blooded! 🙌🏻
Nah, we’re winning
Will continuity (PHO, UTA, MIL, MIA, BOS, GSW -old guard) win out over late season roster/rotation changes (GSW youth additions, PHI-BKL talent swap, DEN & LAC return of star injured players)??
My one playoff fear is that, when the pressure is on, Kerr will fall back on old habits and we are going to see lots of minutes from D Lee, JTA, extending Looney physically, etc. rather than let the younger guys play through a few mistakes. Sure, there is continuity there, but not the kind that wins a Chip. The only way we win a Chip this year, imo, is if embrace the wild and bumpy ride where we infuse the continuity of the old guard with extended playing time for the young Stallions. We are not going to win on skill & IQ alone. And the valued experience of veteran role players will not tip the scales in any series against this year's competition. No one reaches the top of the mountain if they are not allowed to climb it. If we win the Chip this year, it will be because the Warrior's coaching staff embraced and blessed the marriage of 'continuity and mayhem'.
I like your concept and I hope coaches give the rookies a chance to adjust game to game in the playoffs. I suspect they will, and if the guys are falling way off the execution curve, they get limited mins. I can see Moody keeping up with in-series adjustments, but JK finding that a little more challenging. I can’t see Lee or JTA bring in the rotation, regardless if what’s happening with the rookies (caveat injuries of course).
Completely agree! JK and Moody just look a lot better than those guys. Moody is shooting well and can defend. JK is able to draw fouls (and knocking down his FTs now) and defend. JTA and Lee can only do one of these things.
On the flip side, D Lee and JTA are the perfect guys to have at the deep end of your bench. Trusted, they know the system, they know what to do, always ready, they give 100% effort. Break glass in case of emergency, but otherwise, wave towels and cheer lead from the sidelines.
Latest Shaqtin' #1 is pretty crazy, I hadn't seen that it had happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEYv--ADh8k
That was solid transition D
I love that he got bumped but still kept mopping.
As much as I'd like to see us playing the Orlando Magic on Monday, I'm pretty sure the Wizards will be our opponent that night :) Easy to see how Wizards and Magic can lead to confusion.
Especially since the Wizarding World of Harry Potter is in Orlando
So the tiny blue ball hurtles through space spinning on its axis at 1000 mph, orbiting the sun at 67k mph, while our solar system whirls around our galaxy at 490k mph. Still, I am obsessed with the Warriors winning tonight.
That's putting quite a spin on it.
You guys are the best
OT: New 5-minute video from our recent Humpback Whale encounters, which have included a couple of times where the whales swam up so close to Jenny that she could have touched them. It’s as if they see the camera and say “I’m ready for my closeup!” (There’s also a little bonus footage of a Spotted Eagle Ray that was swimming around below us.)
https://youtu.be/UWd49xvVXAA
Having encountered them so close, do you feel like their “intelligence”(loaded word) is beyond human, like so many studies seem to be showing?
Watching the mom’s with their babies is really cool. Humpback’s have extraordinarily long pec fins (1/3 their body length) and they use them to guide and “hug” the babies.
Intelligence is a loaded word (and really hard to measure in certain species), but it’s generally accepted that great apes (chimps, bonobos, orangutans and gorillas) and whales/dolphins are at the top, although certain birds (crows and parrots) and cephalopods can solve some amazing puzzles, that require creating multi-step plans to carry out. Elephants are also insanely smart.
I’ve read about “culture” as well, and variations in language (dialects), and it seems like their language / songs are super complex , not to mention travel miles. The intelligence word/loaded was reminds me of a really good read titled “intelligence in nature” by Jeremy Narby, and really shifted my idea of what intelligence is.
Magical
Thanks Goofus. I forgot how much I love the sound of water gently lapping the side of a boat/kayak. The sound with the images of those beautiful beings is very relaxing in a rather hectic world. Appreciate the brief respite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6CLumsir34
Speaking of whales, 50th Anniversary of this Epic Newscast.
Long live Dave Barry!
Wow!
Very cool. Just got back from a week in Ka'anapali and I've never seen so many whales from the shore. So wonderful to get to see your video and watch them close-up.
Thanks and glad you enjoyed your stay
Always do, although I miss Da Kitchen in Kahului and Aloha Mixed Plate in Lahaina.
So beautiful, majestic, serene. Thank you, Goofus!
Ditto. I feel like I’m right there
😊 thanks
Isn’t the game at Chase center ?
I'd have Otto in the closing line up. If Wiggs is still sliding then maybe JP. I just feel that size will be an issue against these bigger teams if the 3 guard line up is not going crazy like the Denver game. Enter Moody or JK.
We've really missed OPJ the last few games - I'd love him in that final lineup with Dray/Klay/Steph/Poole. He plays good D, rebounds well, and could further help space the floor to open things up for everyone. I think it's easy to forget how solid a player he is and how he fits the Dubs' scheme so well.
As Duby alluded to, JP is looking more and more like a lock for closing lineups, regardless of what Wiggins is doing/not doing.
It’s very likely to be Steph, Klay, Poole, Draymond and one of Looney/Kuminga/Wiggins/OPJ/Iggy or perhaps even Moody if he keeps making so many shots and so few mistakes.
It'll be situational in my opinion. They'll need size and rebounding for sure and Otto is your guy there. Will JP's defense be adequate enough? Moody is the better defender and has been knocking down shots. So I see it depending on how the game is going. If you need to protect a lead then you need Wiggs/Looney/Moody/JK/GPII or even JTA.
So Wiggins is a career 72.4% free-thrower. In March he's shooting 22.2%, which is 50.2% below his career average.
According to the principle of regression to the mean, he'll soon have a month where he's shooting 50.2% above his career average. Therefore, sometime during the playoffs he's going to have a breakout FT shooting month where he shoots at 122.6%!!!
I'm doing this correctly, right?
Hashtag science.
BTW, "reversion to the mean" doesn't apply to artificial time periods like NBA seasons. It applies to his entire career.
Which would mean for every four FTs he shoots, he'd be getting five points. Did I do that right?
Have you run the math on Steph's regression to the mean on his three-point shooting?
I haven't yet, but stay tuned! Honestly, I don't see why players aren't purposefully having bad shooting stretches so that they can save up all of their good shooting for when it matters the most!
I was actually hoping his free fall would hit 0% and just overflow back to 100% at some point.
I know, this is pedantic, but it is incorrect to say that 22.2% is 50.2% below his career average. Wiggs is shooting 50.2 "percentage points" below his career average but he is shooting 30.6% of his career average (22.2 is 30.6% of 72.4) so he is shooting 69.4% below his career average.
If it’s on the internet, it must be true.
“Trickle down” being the junkiest of junk