As much as The Kuminga Show has been fun to watch so far, I'm hoping our remaining preseason games show the non-starters putting some of that high-IQ passing game into practice.
Too often, the motion offense on the second team goes, dribble hand-off, another DHO, hesitate, no advantage, repeat, clock's running out, go iso or dribble into trouble. I'm not entirely sure why it works that way; my best guess is that without a pull-up threat teams can just switch stuff safely or even go under the screens.
So, to unlock the motion offense, we need someone who's a pull up threat going around a screen or getting the ball off quick off a screen; Moody has promise, but isn't there yet. Poole was good at it; Paul, maybe can make it work in the midrange, but that might be hard. Better screens also help with this since the advantage they create lasts just a little longer, which might be the difference between guys getting a shot up or not; I'm looking to TJD to help in that regard.
Alternatively, we can run more Saric pick and pops, Kuminga isolation, stuff that's not the typical motion offense. That may be the quickest path to an effective offense, but it's not as beautiful.
Better PG play should help. Robinson played 21 minutes in Sunday's game, LQ 24 (probably 1/4 of that was at point). Having Steph and Paul back means that the second unit will have Paul, Cojo, or Jet-Ski running the second unit. Any of those guys should be a decent upgrade.
But, yeah, the screening in the second unit was horrible. TJD and Saric were the only ones really looking to set screen ... JK and Moody need to do more on that front.
So far, the look I like the best is the Saric as the initiator, and everyone else playing off of him.
I should have clarified; that was pretty much their entire offense other than fast breaks last night against the Nuggets. For the time I watched, which was admittedly a small sample as it was suuuuper boring.
I would not assume CP3 will come off the bench. I think it’s very likely that GSW will experiment with CP3-Steph-Klay-Wiggs-Dray and a bench pairing of Looney-Saric-Moody-JK-Joseph (they already tried Looney-Saric).
I don't know about the depth for Boston TBH. I have a feeling they run into the same problem in the playoffs where when it gets ugly offensively they'll fold.
Chet takes that team to the next level if he is as advertised. Plus their role players like Joe, Wiggins and Dort are solid as hell too. I wouldn't be too surprised if we play them in the WCF TBH.
Bucks were missing Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Middleton so I guess it's somewhat understandable? It is a legit concern though.
As far as the Celtics goes I think Pritchard will probably provide a nice scoring punch for them off the bench but outside of that they're counting on a 37 year old Horford and.... Sam Hauser? They might be in trouble when they get to the playoffs and certain matchups won't allow them to play those guys. Am I sleeping on anyone on their reserve unit? Maybe Brissett?
Thanks again Eric and Perks for the details about the CBA. Hopefully the rookies keep looking good enough so that the Dubs have 14 playable bodies from their full timers, so the two-way guys are playing for Nick Kerr rather than Steve Kerr, and so we don't even have any concerns about the 90 aggregate game limit.
> Teams must refrain from any long-term shutdown -- or near shutdown -- when a star player stops participating in games or plays in a materially reduced role in circumstances affecting the integrity of the game.
I'm totally not understanding what this is saying. Was this created to address the Kyrie and Harden situations with the Nets?
> Balance between the number of one-game absences for a star player in home games and road games
So multi-game absences won't count against the balance? Or they just count as multiple one-game absences?
Sounds like an open ended "We get to decide who is and who is not at fault" kind of a thing and if they don't address it, the league is going to piss off a lot of people.
The "balance between one-game absences in road vs home games" is a separate clause meant to make players play roughly equal numbers of home games and road games, instead of having all their rest games be road games.
The "long term shutdown" thing is for cases where a team is intentionally tanking and shuts down a star player for no other reason—teams typically do this to avoid injury of the player when they're already eliminated from playoff contention and they might be trading him anyway.
It'll be super engaging as a product to instead watch Luka limp wrist pass the ball to the other team every game instead of having him sit 😃 like I don't enjoy late season tank jobs, but I really prefer them to full season tanks. At least they late season dive usually comes from a team that's been trying to win.
I keep thinking the Warriors optimal lineup rotation is as simple as starting Steph, Klay, Wiggs, Draymond and Looney (aka “the best lineup in the NBA”) and hockey sub in CP3, GP2, MM, JFK and Saric. Do they really need to stagger guys in if both lineups make the most sense by themselves?
Starting lineup strong agree, hockey subs disagree. Prefer the sub Klay out early and then bring him back in along with CP3 when Steph dubs out near the end of the quarter.
Not sure. Depends on if Klay plays within the offense (in which case I agree with you) or if he feels he's THE MAN with Curry on the bench (in which case I think it will be a disaster). Time may tell.
1. As a BFD (big foreign dude) I think Šarić will thrive as a secondary playmaker in this offense like Bogut, Zaza and Bjelica did. Since Paul already has a working relationship with him, I expect them to find each other a lot.
2. I’d add GP2 is also a very effective cutter and strong rebounder, pulling 7 per 36 for us in 21-22.
3. I think Moody’s might be poised take a big leap in his distribution game. I think we might see him finding guys. He just seems too smart and too unselfish not to become a decent asset guy.
4. Uncle Alc said he’s becoming a believer in JFK’s deep ball. After hearing Kerr call it out, I am too. I figure Kerr would be basing that on how good it’s looking in practice as well.
5. To me, Saric is more of a younger, beefier version of Bjelica than anything to do with Casspi.
I feel the high upside for our bench is better than a lot of teams'. Despite this, I'm worried about health generally. I think JK And MM need to play well for our season to succeed even more than this implies given they're less likely to suffer injury than some of our Top 6. It feels like they're playing better, and I've gotten the impression that JK's been very good. This season's start feels much better than last year's!
"Draymond Green, who suffered a sprained left ankle during off-season workouts and has missed the first three preseason games, is making good progress.
He has been cleared to begin light on-court workouts (shooting drills, etc.) and his return to full team practice and scrimmages will be based on his continued progress. He will be re-evaluated again on Sunday."
Yeah, that's fine... but it hasn't become the unanimous nickname yet, I slightly prefer JK, and I've heard/read Kerr referring to him as JK, so I'm going with JK.
Chris Paul confident that he fits in perfectly with Steph Curry, Draymond Green & the Warriors | NBC Sports Bay Area & California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlXUtD9sn00
Oct 17, 2023·edited Oct 17, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot
New CBA 2nd apron trade restrictions:
A question came up yesterday about trading Chris Paul this season. I was going to respond, but when I went digging for answers, I didn't find them all.
1. I know the aggregration part doesn't kick in till next year. We could still send out Paul and another player(s) until next summer.
2. I believe there is a clause that you can only bring back a lesser amount of salary, but I could not find mention of it. Nor do I know whether it is in effect this year or next.
3. Similarly, I believe the salary match range is reduced to 10% at either the first or second apron, and I don't know when that one kicks in either. While that might not affect us, it could affect our trade partner in a 1-1 swap.
So, what part of the above is true?
My general impression is that it's possible to trade Paul this year, but it would probably have to be part of a 'big' trade (finding a single player swap for someone we want would be hard).
Next year, I think it gets very tough, which is why I think they decline the option when they can (to help get under the 2nd apron).
Plus he is a below average defender. I think the Bucks are going to struggle to defend the perimeter this year. They are going to be fun to watch though...
They have to start consolidating ASAP. They already have nine players under contract in 2026: two full years after this one (SGA, Dort, Chet, Jalen, Jaylin, Kenrich Williams, Micic, Dieng, and Wallace). Both Giddey and Mann will be RFAs. So they could theoretically have 11 spots already taken 3 full seasons from now. They will have 7 FRPs in the next 2 drafts and 7 SRPs. The math is already not mathing.
And opposing GMs will know this. They absolutely should have done a big trade this offseason. Jrue would have been a great fit.
They still have options. They can trade current picks for future picks. They can trade multiple 2nd round picks for future 1st round picks.They can consolidate picks and trade up in the draft (they have traded up in the last two drafts). They traded up for Cason Wallace this year, and might feel like they already have the next Jrue Holiday.
They may make a big vet trade eventually, but my guess is it would be more about trading for a really great role guy with a reasonable contract who's closer in age to the group. Otherwise I think we'll see Presti use picks to acquire better picks or future picks. His MO has always been find the next star and develop them in house.
IMO, OKC should have been in the KD sweepstakes. Giddy, SGA, KD, Holmgren, and Jaylin Williams with the other J. Williams coming off the bench would have been a playoff team and they had the draft picks and guys like Olidapo, Bertrans, and Dort that still have some value but who OKC really didn't need except for salary matching. And they would still have a boatload of picks.
So the Rockets are paying the Thunder in picks to dump KPJ. I guess they couldn't do it themselves, so this is a way around something? Or the Thunder are just willing to take a cap hit/salary dump for the picks, which probably makes more sense.
But yeah, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
The Rockets save some money and they also could theoretically hold onto Oladipo and JRE for another trade this season. Whereas holding onto KPJ all year just stinks.
The Thunder eat $4m in salary cap space for a couple 2nd round picks.
Yeah... if the Rockets keep him on the roster, there may be questions about him every now and then. Since they did value his basketball contribution in the past, so there may be speculation that they'll try to bring him back... heck, there may even be fans who'd rather look the other way on his off-court behavior because they think he can help the team win (yuck). Meanwhile, the Thunder and their fanbase have absolutely zero connection to the guy, and already have answers for any questions: "Yes, we made the trade for draft picks. No, we did not want anything to do with him."
I'm puzzled, too. Maybe Houston wanted to get off Porter's $1 mil guaranteed in 24-25? Oladipo's contract ends this year, and Robinson-Earl's is a club option for that year.
I've seen this move before, and never understood why.
Hollinger Western Conference predictions: https://theathletic.com/4965360/2023/10/18/nba-win-totals-predictions-lakers-warriors-grizzlies-western-conference/?amp=1
Hollinger picks the Grizzlies (!) as the #1 in the Wedt?! Going out on a limb there…
He forecasts a crowded and compressed field with only five games separating 1-7 and the top tr only winning 50 games.
The Warriors project to finish fifth, although the text is more dour than the ranking.
Would be more surprising if Hollinger had anything good to say about the Warriors in his preseason predictions.
Should be a fun year.
A nail biter!
As much as The Kuminga Show has been fun to watch so far, I'm hoping our remaining preseason games show the non-starters putting some of that high-IQ passing game into practice.
Too often, the motion offense on the second team goes, dribble hand-off, another DHO, hesitate, no advantage, repeat, clock's running out, go iso or dribble into trouble. I'm not entirely sure why it works that way; my best guess is that without a pull-up threat teams can just switch stuff safely or even go under the screens.
So, to unlock the motion offense, we need someone who's a pull up threat going around a screen or getting the ball off quick off a screen; Moody has promise, but isn't there yet. Poole was good at it; Paul, maybe can make it work in the midrange, but that might be hard. Better screens also help with this since the advantage they create lasts just a little longer, which might be the difference between guys getting a shot up or not; I'm looking to TJD to help in that regard.
Alternatively, we can run more Saric pick and pops, Kuminga isolation, stuff that's not the typical motion offense. That may be the quickest path to an effective offense, but it's not as beautiful.
Better PG play should help. Robinson played 21 minutes in Sunday's game, LQ 24 (probably 1/4 of that was at point). Having Steph and Paul back means that the second unit will have Paul, Cojo, or Jet-Ski running the second unit. Any of those guys should be a decent upgrade.
But, yeah, the screening in the second unit was horrible. TJD and Saric were the only ones really looking to set screen ... JK and Moody need to do more on that front.
So far, the look I like the best is the Saric as the initiator, and everyone else playing off of him.
I'm reasonably optimistic for Klay giving some non-Steph lineups a boost too. Imagine last February's Klay but with this year's bench.
Like, look at the guys we had in this game. Klay is gonna have more help this year, right?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202302240GSW.html
Open question: is the entire Clippers half court offense isolation post-ups? Discuss.
I should have clarified; that was pretty much their entire offense other than fast breaks last night against the Nuggets. For the time I watched, which was admittedly a small sample as it was suuuuper boring.
Dave Pasch and Bob Myers make a pretty good team.
I would not assume CP3 will come off the bench. I think it’s very likely that GSW will experiment with CP3-Steph-Klay-Wiggs-Dray and a bench pairing of Looney-Saric-Moody-JK-Joseph (they already tried Looney-Saric).
Those will NOT be the hockey substitutions… but yeah, they could absolutely start CP3.
Too many minutes on a small lineup, specifically CP and Dray?
I don't know about the depth for Boston TBH. I have a feeling they run into the same problem in the playoffs where when it gets ugly offensively they'll fold.
I have much more faith in the depth of the Celtics than in the depth of the Bucks.
Pre-season alert, but getting blown off the floor by OKC with Giannis and Dame playing 25 minutes each is a bit concerning.
OKC isn’t a joke anymore. They’re kinda.scary.
Chet takes that team to the next level if he is as advertised. Plus their role players like Joe, Wiggins and Dort are solid as hell too. I wouldn't be too surprised if we play them in the WCF TBH.
Chet > Pokusevski
They and the kings have a ton of young talent
I’ve seen a number of people predicting that so it might not be as hot as you think.
Bucks were missing Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Middleton so I guess it's somewhat understandable? It is a legit concern though.
As far as the Celtics goes I think Pritchard will probably provide a nice scoring punch for them off the bench but outside of that they're counting on a 37 year old Horford and.... Sam Hauser? They might be in trouble when they get to the playoffs and certain matchups won't allow them to play those guys. Am I sleeping on anyone on their reserve unit? Maybe Brissett?
Thanks again Eric and Perks for the details about the CBA. Hopefully the rookies keep looking good enough so that the Dubs have 14 playable bodies from their full timers, so the two-way guys are playing for Nick Kerr rather than Steve Kerr, and so we don't even have any concerns about the 90 aggregate game limit.
> Teams must refrain from any long-term shutdown -- or near shutdown -- when a star player stops participating in games or plays in a materially reduced role in circumstances affecting the integrity of the game.
I'm totally not understanding what this is saying. Was this created to address the Kyrie and Harden situations with the Nets?
> Balance between the number of one-game absences for a star player in home games and road games
So multi-game absences won't count against the balance? Or they just count as multiple one-game absences?
Sounds like an open ended "We get to decide who is and who is not at fault" kind of a thing and if they don't address it, the league is going to piss off a lot of people.
The "balance between one-game absences in road vs home games" is a separate clause meant to make players play roughly equal numbers of home games and road games, instead of having all their rest games be road games.
The "long term shutdown" thing is for cases where a team is intentionally tanking and shuts down a star player for no other reason—teams typically do this to avoid injury of the player when they're already eliminated from playoff contention and they might be trading him anyway.
This is e.g. the Dame Lillard situation where they shut him down for the last 10ish games of the year last year, as an example.
It'll be super engaging as a product to instead watch Luka limp wrist pass the ball to the other team every game instead of having him sit 😃 like I don't enjoy late season tank jobs, but I really prefer them to full season tanks. At least they late season dive usually comes from a team that's been trying to win.
I keep thinking the Warriors optimal lineup rotation is as simple as starting Steph, Klay, Wiggs, Draymond and Looney (aka “the best lineup in the NBA”) and hockey sub in CP3, GP2, MM, JFK and Saric. Do they really need to stagger guys in if both lineups make the most sense by themselves?
Starting lineup strong agree, hockey subs disagree. Prefer the sub Klay out early and then bring him back in along with CP3 when Steph dubs out near the end of the quarter.
yeah, I think GP2 is a better fit with Steph than with the second unit, and Klay will bring some nice firepower/shooting to the second group
Not sure. Depends on if Klay plays within the offense (in which case I agree with you) or if he feels he's THE MAN with Curry on the bench (in which case I think it will be a disaster). Time may tell.
FYI Steph ALWAYS dubs out
A lot will depend on other teams rotations but if the subs with CP3 turn out to be better then some starting squads then were in really good shape.
A helluva lot depends on the shooting of those 5 guys you put in the secondary squad.
- CP3 is actually an exceptional catch and shoot guy, but will he receive enough passes from this group to activate?
- GP2 has shown himself to be money from the corners but without a lot of volume. Can he keep it up?
- Moody I'm just gonna say is real as a shooter. I feel it in my bones.
- JFK I still can't believe is as good a 3pt shooter as he has been. If he really is a 36%+ from deep, then this lineup is ultra fire.
- Saric: he's clearly a good shooter. I just still have memories of Casspi that I want to fade away...
1. As a BFD (big foreign dude) I think Šarić will thrive as a secondary playmaker in this offense like Bogut, Zaza and Bjelica did. Since Paul already has a working relationship with him, I expect them to find each other a lot.
2. I’d add GP2 is also a very effective cutter and strong rebounder, pulling 7 per 36 for us in 21-22.
3. I think Moody’s might be poised take a big leap in his distribution game. I think we might see him finding guys. He just seems too smart and too unselfish not to become a decent asset guy.
4. Uncle Alc said he’s becoming a believer in JFK’s deep ball. After hearing Kerr call it out, I am too. I figure Kerr would be basing that on how good it’s looking in practice as well.
5. To me, Saric is more of a younger, beefier version of Bjelica than anything to do with Casspi.
Our second unit just projects as such a strength.
I feel the high upside for our bench is better than a lot of teams'. Despite this, I'm worried about health generally. I think JK And MM need to play well for our season to succeed even more than this implies given they're less likely to suffer injury than some of our Top 6. It feels like they're playing better, and I've gotten the impression that JK's been very good. This season's start feels much better than last year's!
Just to see how the pieces & parts fit together.
Steph Curry on Chris Paul's Warriors fit, importance of their "more mature" roster | NBC Sports BA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aY9E4pR1hE
(Steph interview predates first preseason game)
https://twitter.com/warriors/status/1714373851822592284
"Draymond Green, who suffered a sprained left ankle during off-season workouts and has missed the first three preseason games, is making good progress.
He has been cleared to begin light on-court workouts (shooting drills, etc.) and his return to full team practice and scrimmages will be based on his continued progress. He will be re-evaluated again on Sunday."
It's officially #RAMPUP season
A not terribly analytical, but nice story about #BAZINGA (bowdlerized from #KUMZILLA, so DFIB doesn't have an aneurysm :) )
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/why-jonathan-kuminga-could-be-key-to-warriors-extending-title-contention-window/
Is King Congo off the table?
Yes. Let’s stay away from anything with a sniff of racism.
No, bad Turing.
I pronounce it "Coom" in my head, to remove the obvious connotation. Like his name (Koo-minga, not come-inga).
Kumingod... whatever, I'm going to stick with JK till some nickname really sticks.
I've been reading JoKu quite a bit from Warriors reddit.
Yeah, that's fine... but it hasn't become the unanimous nickname yet, I slightly prefer JK, and I've heard/read Kerr referring to him as JK, so I'm going with JK.
I'm reluctantly coming to the conclusion that Sleepy's "JoKu" nickname is the only one that will keep my out of hot water ... or prison.
Chris Paul confident that he fits in perfectly with Steph Curry, Draymond Green & the Warriors | NBC Sports Bay Area & California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlXUtD9sn00
Note: predates first preseason game,
New CBA 2nd apron trade restrictions:
A question came up yesterday about trading Chris Paul this season. I was going to respond, but when I went digging for answers, I didn't find them all.
1. I know the aggregration part doesn't kick in till next year. We could still send out Paul and another player(s) until next summer.
2. I believe there is a clause that you can only bring back a lesser amount of salary, but I could not find mention of it. Nor do I know whether it is in effect this year or next.
3. Similarly, I believe the salary match range is reduced to 10% at either the first or second apron, and I don't know when that one kicks in either. While that might not affect us, it could affect our trade partner in a 1-1 swap.
So, what part of the above is true?
My general impression is that it's possible to trade Paul this year, but it would probably have to be part of a 'big' trade (finding a single player swap for someone we want would be hard).
Next year, I think it gets very tough, which is why I think they decline the option when they can (to help get under the 2nd apron).
danke!
Plus he is a below average defender. I think the Bucks are going to struggle to defend the perimeter this year. They are going to be fun to watch though...
That pick and roll/pop though should be a thing of beauty.
last year Giannis was #1 in FTA per 36 minutes and Dame was #5... arrrre they gonna be fun to watch?
15 first round picks and 22 second round picks in the next 7 drafts... lol
They have to start consolidating ASAP. They already have nine players under contract in 2026: two full years after this one (SGA, Dort, Chet, Jalen, Jaylin, Kenrich Williams, Micic, Dieng, and Wallace). Both Giddey and Mann will be RFAs. So they could theoretically have 11 spots already taken 3 full seasons from now. They will have 7 FRPs in the next 2 drafts and 7 SRPs. The math is already not mathing.
And opposing GMs will know this. They absolutely should have done a big trade this offseason. Jrue would have been a great fit.
They still have options. They can trade current picks for future picks. They can trade multiple 2nd round picks for future 1st round picks.They can consolidate picks and trade up in the draft (they have traded up in the last two drafts). They traded up for Cason Wallace this year, and might feel like they already have the next Jrue Holiday.
They may make a big vet trade eventually, but my guess is it would be more about trading for a really great role guy with a reasonable contract who's closer in age to the group. Otherwise I think we'll see Presti use picks to acquire better picks or future picks. His MO has always been find the next star and develop them in house.
IMO, OKC should have been in the KD sweepstakes. Giddy, SGA, KD, Holmgren, and Jaylin Williams with the other J. Williams coming off the bench would have been a playoff team and they had the draft picks and guys like Olidapo, Bertrans, and Dort that still have some value but who OKC really didn't need except for salary matching. And they would still have a boatload of picks.
KD going back to OKC huh? Yeah, don’t think that was happening.
Welcome Back Cupcakes! anyone?
So the Rockets are paying the Thunder in picks to dump KPJ. I guess they couldn't do it themselves, so this is a way around something? Or the Thunder are just willing to take a cap hit/salary dump for the picks, which probably makes more sense.
But yeah, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
The Rockets save some money and they also could theoretically hold onto Oladipo and JRE for another trade this season. Whereas holding onto KPJ all year just stinks.
The Thunder eat $4m in salary cap space for a couple 2nd round picks.
But the Thunder also eat Porter's $15.9M guaranteed for this season, and I don't understand why they would do that.
Yeah... if the Rockets keep him on the roster, there may be questions about him every now and then. Since they did value his basketball contribution in the past, so there may be speculation that they'll try to bring him back... heck, there may even be fans who'd rather look the other way on his off-court behavior because they think he can help the team win (yuck). Meanwhile, the Thunder and their fanbase have absolutely zero connection to the guy, and already have answers for any questions: "Yes, we made the trade for draft picks. No, we did not want anything to do with him."
I'm puzzled, too. Maybe Houston wanted to get off Porter's $1 mil guaranteed in 24-25? Oladipo's contract ends this year, and Robinson-Earl's is a club option for that year.
I've seen this move before, and never understood why.
Color me confused.