He should probably go to the Lakers if he ever wants to win a ring. He just might be desperate enough to do so (especially considering his close relationship with LeBron).
A Schroeder + THT sign and trade would probably be good for both teams if Paul decides to leave (the Suns pick up an asset in THT for nothing while the Lakers get CP3).
The angry fans I kept reading on Twitter who inexplicably wanted Bazemore off the team might get their wish I guess, something tells me they won't be happy about it though
On a side note, Isaiah Todd, an athletic 6'10 PF with a 7'1 wingspan with a sweet stroke has been canceling workouts outside the lottery (a typical indication of being promised to be selected).
On the one hand, I'm saddened that one of my preferred second round targets for the Warriors is being taken. On the other, it makes me feel a bit more confident in my scouting abilities considering I'd been rating him as a mid first round talent for a while and it seems like at least one NBA team feels the same.
I typically look at minimum the consensus board top 60 prospects, but the amount of effort I put drops dramatically past top 20. Unfortunately, a lot of my spare time goes to scouting for fantasy football, where me/a couple of friends have constructed custom-built predictive models that allow for us to grab quite a bit of money on the side. I've fallen out of love with football (preferring basketball), but fantasy football has become so lucrative that its eating up a lot of my time.
In any case, regarding my scouting process, I typically watch full games to evaluate the prospect. I have a grading system where I rate the prospect on a scale of 10 for dribbling, passing, perimeter defense, interior defense, positional defense, perimeter shooting, interior shooting, layups/finishing, rebounding, blocks, steals. I also try and rate their athleticism across different sectors taking into account jumping ability, straight-line speed, agility, physical strength, hand-eye coordination, balance, body control etc. Finally, I try to identify their intangibles through interviews/what coaches have said about them, their play on the court (whether or not they demonstrate dog/IQ). After I’ve done this, I go over the ratings, and try to provide context to them taking into account the offensive/defensive schemes of that players team. Finally, after this done, I compare their overall ratings to A) Pro players ratings when they got drafted/now and B) Other players within this draft class.
Ah, super cool, thanks for sharing! I like that it sounds discrete and reproducible and involves averaging over several games. And I can definitely see how that’d be very time consuming!
Does this mean you need a scouting record for many pro players? Did you accumulate that this season or from previous seasons?
I've accumulated that from previous seasons, but it was only this year that I REALLY beefed up my scouting record. I've been scouting for a while (since 2011), but I had to update my older scouting reports to make them more comprehensive/fit my current template.
Point of clarification: For every instance where a particular attribute is required, i give a positive or negative point. After watching 5 games, I look at the remaining number of points for that rating, adjust it, and then compare it to top prospects/NBA players in previous seasons to have a baseline to judge from.
Assuming a starting lineup of Curry-Bazemore-Wiggins-Oubre-Green and a bench of Looney-Poole-DLee-JTA-Chriss.
Certainly, I think the Curry-Green PnR would obliterate the Bucks drop coverage, and the smallball options they can employ makes the box-and-one tactics of the 2019 Raptors less effective. Bucks'll probably adjust by playing Tucker and Giannis at the 5 to match the Warriors smallball.
Ultimately, I think the Warriors just don't have the top tier scoring talent without Klay to take a series. Wiggins and Oubre as the #2 and #3 scorers after Steph isn't going to out-duel the Bucks' Jrue and Middleton.
you seriously think Steph Curry can't go nuclear and win a playoff game (or two) by himself? The series wouldn't need to be competitive for the Dubs to win a couple of games.
True. And, a 6 game series is a coin flip from forcing a game 7 — where anything can happen. My point was clear, I thought: a Bucks & non-Klay Dubs series would not be competitive. And, if you think it would be you’re in fantasyland.
Nah, not a sweep. Curry would absolutely love to play against drop coverage in the playoffs.
Warriors take a game as Bucks open up with their main drop coverage defense, and probably take another game as Bud figures out Lopez for 30mpg against the Warriors smallball wont cut it.
Warriors might end up like the Suns, win the 1st two and then get reverse swept.
I dunno how competitive I'd feel the series was losing 4 in a row...
Not all 6-game series are particularly competitive. The Blazers, Sonics, Blazers, and Jazz (x 2) all took Jordan’s Bulls six games; only one of those series is remembered as particularly competitive.
A bell curve around 5-6 games is imo a pretty reasonable, non-fantasyland prediction for a series where one team is clearly stronger but inexperienced in the finals, and the other has a three-time championship core (of three players*, plus the coaching staff) led by a Top 15 all-time player who gives you a puncher’s chance in any game.
Loon can guard Giannis. I mean, no one was stopping that dude the way he played last night (least of all Ayton, poor guy), but I think Dray-Loon-Wiseman tag team (with a healthy Quese for good measure?) isn't bad at all as Giannis-stoppers go.
I mean, they were 1-1 in the regular reason. It's not unreasonable to expect to at least a couple of nuclear Steph games, against the Bucks or anyone else, in a seven-game series. Steph has completely destroyed and embarrassed Jrue Holiday head-to-head over their careers, and dropped 41 on him the last time they met:
Probably not great, not enough offense. Bucks could throw tucker and Jrue at Steph, with Giannis to clean up messes. Heck, even if they double Steph, A Wiggins/Dray/looney/Oubre 4v3 against Giannis+2more doesn’t seem doesn’t seem terribly intimidating for the Bucks. Steph could probably pull out 2 games, but my guess is also Bucks 4-2 win
Depends if/when Bucks would've stopped playing the drop against Steph. Once they figured that out, hard to see anything other than bucks in 5 or maybe 6.
They are one of the few teams that can match up to Draymond at the 5 by playing Giannis as a 5.
They played brook and Portis so much though, they'd have to sell out on curry double teams. I think looney n green would have been smart enough to play giannis better then the suns did
Nice to se Giannis' loyalty to the Bucks pay off. The thought of him in a Warriors uniform was sweet but not real in any capacity. I also think Middleton has become the best SG in the game. Indispensable! Adding Holiday seemed to be the right move, too. Kudos to the Bucks.
Random thought: if Giannis came here, there's no doubt Steph would have been robbed of another fmvp. With the attention Steph gets, giannis would have dropped like 40 a game
What sent him looking for greener pastures was his thin skin in the face of media criticism. No need to come up with narratives that Steph didn't deserve an FMVP.
Manner of speaking. Steph was fantastic in all three of his Finals wins — more FMVP-worthy than many past recipients — so it’s only natural for his fans to feel a li’l salty that he doesn’t have one (yet?)
Obviously KD was fantastic and deserving in his two wins as well.
It's not just bigger. Steph will always be the one getting double teamed. If the Cavs double teamed kd all those years and Steph got to play the corpse of Richard Jefferson 1 on 1, he would have both those fmvp
Probably the best non-Warriors winning the title outcome I could have hoped for in these playoffs. No L.A., no Nets, no CP3. Giannis is a classy, humble character and easy to root for. Very happy for Holiday and Middleton as well.
I know it's easy to attribute "likability" to the players on the team whose laundry you happen to be rooting for, but there really are many seemingly good dudes on the Bucks, between Giannis, Holiday, Middleton, Tucker, Portis, Coach Bud, et al.
Only bittersweet note for me is I would have loved to see Monty Williams get a ring.
I can't see PHO even making it back to the WCF in the near future barring a crazy trade that brings another superstar there. I still don't think Booker is good enough to single handedly carry a team and Ayton while very solid isn't a gamechanger IMO. If CP3 leaves that team is screwed with a capital S.
Losing Saric for (basically) a full year is a low-key big blow for them going into next season. They're capped out (unless CP3 opts out?) and he's is a productive 27 y.o. stretch big making $9M a year.
Booker has loads of talent and he's just 24. Until now (okay, the bubble last year), he has been on losing teams. I think he can develop more and be the real deal.
That's true, he can certainly go up another level as soon as next year, but I guess I'm just not impressed by his game, Not that my opinion of him even matters
Well heck put that way none of our opinions of him matter! I'm impressed with him. Obviously it's a team effort but the Suns wouldn't have been within artillery range of the Finals without him.
What can the lakers do salary cap wise? Paul is hitting a wall, but if/when he decides to take less money to ring chase, watch out cuz he still has enough left in the tank to be dangerous. Don’t want to see him get a ring but still respect his game.
Holiday had a horrible game shooting the ball. But the winners find a way to contribute however they can. 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 4 steals, 1 championship.
CP3 is goin to leave Phoenix this summer? I don't think so. He's gonna stay
He should probably go to the Lakers if he ever wants to win a ring. He just might be desperate enough to do so (especially considering his close relationship with LeBron).
A Schroeder + THT sign and trade would probably be good for both teams if Paul decides to leave (the Suns pick up an asset in THT for nothing while the Lakers get CP3).
Hollinger stat-based contract projection of SFs:
Oubre: $9.4 M (he notes will likely get more)
Bazemore: $8.9 M (he notes likely due to unsustainable 40% 3P% and unlikely to be back in GSW)
Otto Porter: $7.7 M (he notes could be a huge bargain if healthy)
Hard to argue with any of those conclusions.
The angry fans I kept reading on Twitter who inexplicably wanted Bazemore off the team might get their wish I guess, something tells me they won't be happy about it though
Don't read Twitter for nba takes lol
I hope Baze proves him wrong and stays with his good pal Stephen for the fun of the game
Note on how crazy Giannis was this series:
>@deanondraft:
Giannis scored 50 points and 75% TS last night and his ORtg for the series somehow went down from 136 to 135.<
He was on the floor for a lot of bad turnovers yesterday...
On a side note, Isaiah Todd, an athletic 6'10 PF with a 7'1 wingspan with a sweet stroke has been canceling workouts outside the lottery (a typical indication of being promised to be selected).
On the one hand, I'm saddened that one of my preferred second round targets for the Warriors is being taken. On the other, it makes me feel a bit more confident in my scouting abilities considering I'd been rating him as a mid first round talent for a while and it seems like at least one NBA team feels the same.
Scouting Report on Todd:
https://www.democracynow.org/2019/4/26/headlines/report_us_sanctions_have_killed_40_000_in_venezuela_since_2017
Cool share. What’s your scouting process like? How many candidates do you go through?
I typically look at minimum the consensus board top 60 prospects, but the amount of effort I put drops dramatically past top 20. Unfortunately, a lot of my spare time goes to scouting for fantasy football, where me/a couple of friends have constructed custom-built predictive models that allow for us to grab quite a bit of money on the side. I've fallen out of love with football (preferring basketball), but fantasy football has become so lucrative that its eating up a lot of my time.
In any case, regarding my scouting process, I typically watch full games to evaluate the prospect. I have a grading system where I rate the prospect on a scale of 10 for dribbling, passing, perimeter defense, interior defense, positional defense, perimeter shooting, interior shooting, layups/finishing, rebounding, blocks, steals. I also try and rate their athleticism across different sectors taking into account jumping ability, straight-line speed, agility, physical strength, hand-eye coordination, balance, body control etc. Finally, I try to identify their intangibles through interviews/what coaches have said about them, their play on the court (whether or not they demonstrate dog/IQ). After I’ve done this, I go over the ratings, and try to provide context to them taking into account the offensive/defensive schemes of that players team. Finally, after this done, I compare their overall ratings to A) Pro players ratings when they got drafted/now and B) Other players within this draft class.
Ah, super cool, thanks for sharing! I like that it sounds discrete and reproducible and involves averaging over several games. And I can definitely see how that’d be very time consuming!
Does this mean you need a scouting record for many pro players? Did you accumulate that this season or from previous seasons?
I've accumulated that from previous seasons, but it was only this year that I REALLY beefed up my scouting record. I've been scouting for a while (since 2011), but I had to update my older scouting reports to make them more comprehensive/fit my current template.
Point of clarification: For every instance where a particular attribute is required, i give a positive or negative point. After watching 5 games, I look at the remaining number of points for that rating, adjust it, and then compare it to top prospects/NBA players in previous seasons to have a baseline to judge from.
Don't the Warriors not have a 2nd round draft pick this year? Or did you think that they might buy into the 2nd round a la Jordan Bell and McCaw?
Love me some Democracy Now.
Honestly, I completely forgot that the 2nd round draft pick (I thought they did considering how many second round prospects they are working out).
Still, like you said, they could purchase a 2nd round pick a la Bell/McCaw with cash considerations.
Maybe OKC will sell them a pick? They got three second rounders
That was the wrong link (I was reading up on that before coming to this website). Here is the right one.
https://pippenainteasy.com/2021/06/27/chicago-bulls-2021-nba-draft-scouting-reports-pf-isaiah-todd/
Two quality links being shared.
Warriors 4th in 2022 chip odds: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31851985/brooklyn-nets-open-2021-22-nba-title-favorites-lakers-bucks-next
How do yall think a non klay healthy warriors (no wiseman) team would have done against this bucks squad?
Dubs in 6, easy
Assuming a starting lineup of Curry-Bazemore-Wiggins-Oubre-Green and a bench of Looney-Poole-DLee-JTA-Chriss.
Certainly, I think the Curry-Green PnR would obliterate the Bucks drop coverage, and the smallball options they can employ makes the box-and-one tactics of the 2019 Raptors less effective. Bucks'll probably adjust by playing Tucker and Giannis at the 5 to match the Warriors smallball.
Ultimately, I think the Warriors just don't have the top tier scoring talent without Klay to take a series. Wiggins and Oubre as the #2 and #3 scorers after Steph isn't going to out-duel the Bucks' Jrue and Middleton.
So, I'll join the chorus and say Bucks in 6.
you seriously think a non-Klay Dubs team wins 2 games in such a series? Bucks in 4 or 5.
you seriously think Steph Curry can't go nuclear and win a playoff game (or two) by himself? The series wouldn't need to be competitive for the Dubs to win a couple of games.
5 is one coin-flip game from 6. Chill.
True. And, a 6 game series is a coin flip from forcing a game 7 — where anything can happen. My point was clear, I thought: a Bucks & non-Klay Dubs series would not be competitive. And, if you think it would be you’re in fantasyland.
Nah, not a sweep. Curry would absolutely love to play against drop coverage in the playoffs.
Warriors take a game as Bucks open up with their main drop coverage defense, and probably take another game as Bud figures out Lopez for 30mpg against the Warriors smallball wont cut it.
Warriors might end up like the Suns, win the 1st two and then get reverse swept.
I dunno how competitive I'd feel the series was losing 4 in a row...
Not all 6-game series are particularly competitive. The Blazers, Sonics, Blazers, and Jazz (x 2) all took Jordan’s Bulls six games; only one of those series is remembered as particularly competitive.
A bell curve around 5-6 games is imo a pretty reasonable, non-fantasyland prediction for a series where one team is clearly stronger but inexperienced in the finals, and the other has a three-time championship core (of three players*, plus the coaching staff) led by a Top 15 all-time player who gives you a puncher’s chance in any game.
*= Steph, Dray, Loon
*Blazers, Sonics, Suns, and Jazz
I think the Dubs have no way to guard Giannis without Wiseman, and with Wiseman he’d probably rack up a quick 5 fouls.
I would have liked to see what happened if Oubre was on Giannis, personally
Loon can guard Giannis. I mean, no one was stopping that dude the way he played last night (least of all Ayton, poor guy), but I think Dray-Loon-Wiseman tag team (with a healthy Quese for good measure?) isn't bad at all as Giannis-stoppers go.
I think our starters could outplay theirs but their depth would get us in a series, bucks in 6
Due respect, that's fantasyland.
This is all fantasyland. It's a thought exercise.
True enough…
I mean, they were 1-1 in the regular reason. It's not unreasonable to expect to at least a couple of nuclear Steph games, against the Bucks or anyone else, in a seven-game series. Steph has completely destroyed and embarrassed Jrue Holiday head-to-head over their careers, and dropped 41 on him the last time they met:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202104060GSW.html
I mean, Giannis didn't play in that game. I do believe the Warriors could sneak through 1 game, but I don't see 2.
Poole dlee jta probably run a 8 9 man rotation
Probably not great, not enough offense. Bucks could throw tucker and Jrue at Steph, with Giannis to clean up messes. Heck, even if they double Steph, A Wiggins/Dray/looney/Oubre 4v3 against Giannis+2more doesn’t seem doesn’t seem terribly intimidating for the Bucks. Steph could probably pull out 2 games, but my guess is also Bucks 4-2 win
With a healthy Klay maybe the warriors push all in on a Tucker trade or somebody else.
Suns did play a lot of iso ball and kept almost every game close I think our offense would have had better success while playing better defense
Depends if/when Bucks would've stopped playing the drop against Steph. Once they figured that out, hard to see anything other than bucks in 5 or maybe 6.
They are one of the few teams that can match up to Draymond at the 5 by playing Giannis as a 5.
They played brook and Portis so much though, they'd have to sell out on curry double teams. I think looney n green would have been smart enough to play giannis better then the suns did
Easy to double Steph when we're playing at least 1 (Draymond) and commonly 2-3 (Looney and JTA) non-threats offensively.
Nice to se Giannis' loyalty to the Bucks pay off. The thought of him in a Warriors uniform was sweet but not real in any capacity. I also think Middleton has become the best SG in the game. Indispensable! Adding Holiday seemed to be the right move, too. Kudos to the Bucks.
Totally with you on the loyalty to a smaller franchise. Congrats to Giannis and the Bucks
Random thought: if Giannis came here, there's no doubt Steph would have been robbed of another fmvp. With the attention Steph gets, giannis would have dropped like 40 a game
Steph wasn't robbed. KD deserved both awards, This is precisely the sort of anti-KD stuff that had him looking for greener pastures.
What sent him looking for greener pastures was his thin skin in the face of media criticism. No need to come up with narratives that Steph didn't deserve an FMVP.
Manner of speaking. Steph was fantastic in all three of his Finals wins — more FMVP-worthy than many past recipients — so it’s only natural for his fans to feel a li’l salty that he doesn’t have one (yet?)
Obviously KD was fantastic and deserving in his two wins as well.
It's not just bigger. Steph will always be the one getting double teamed. If the Cavs double teamed kd all those years and Steph got to play the corpse of Richard Jefferson 1 on 1, he would have both those fmvp
In fairness, KD wasn't just any talented teammate.
Nor would Giannis be.
Probably the best non-Warriors winning the title outcome I could have hoped for in these playoffs. No L.A., no Nets, no CP3. Giannis is a classy, humble character and easy to root for. Very happy for Holiday and Middleton as well.
Torrey Craig is the real winner here. He lost but still won a ring. #UnstoppableBaby
Forreals: in a Playoff Prediction thread on another site before the playoffs began, I had Bucks over Suns 4-2 in the Finals.
Though in fairness: it was about 90% what I wanted to happen and 10% what I actually thought would happen. :-)
Congrats, Bucks!!!
I know it's easy to attribute "likability" to the players on the team whose laundry you happen to be rooting for, but there really are many seemingly good dudes on the Bucks, between Giannis, Holiday, Middleton, Tucker, Portis, Coach Bud, et al.
Only bittersweet note for me is I would have loved to see Monty Williams get a ring.
Nailed it. My feelings exactly.
I can't see PHO even making it back to the WCF in the near future barring a crazy trade that brings another superstar there. I still don't think Booker is good enough to single handedly carry a team and Ayton while very solid isn't a gamechanger IMO. If CP3 leaves that team is screwed with a capital S.
Yea, even with CP3 they aren't getting this far again
Losing Saric for (basically) a full year is a low-key big blow for them going into next season. They're capped out (unless CP3 opts out?) and he's is a productive 27 y.o. stretch big making $9M a year.
Forgot about Saric, losing him and this series is definitely a big blow for them in the immediate future and I'm not sold on Booker either
Booker has loads of talent and he's just 24. Until now (okay, the bubble last year), he has been on losing teams. I think he can develop more and be the real deal.
That's true, he can certainly go up another level as soon as next year, but I guess I'm just not impressed by his game, Not that my opinion of him even matters
Well heck put that way none of our opinions of him matter! I'm impressed with him. Obviously it's a team effort but the Suns wouldn't have been within artillery range of the Finals without him.
What a game for Giannis! Amazing to see a guy push himself that hard physically with that type of mental focus. true greatness
I hope that the Suns did well enough to ensure that CP3 doesn't join the Lakers.
I see CP jumping ship regardless. I'm sure Bron is blowing up his phone at the moment recruiting
What can the lakers do salary cap wise? Paul is hitting a wall, but if/when he decides to take less money to ring chase, watch out cuz he still has enough left in the tank to be dangerous. Don’t want to see him get a ring but still respect his game.
Holiday had a horrible game shooting the ball. But the winners find a way to contribute however they can. 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 4 steals, 1 championship.
They need so much from him defensively, can’t even really complain about the bad shooting