118 Comments

I've avoided all things NBA for the last 24 hours because I was in a complete adolescent snit about last night's game. Having recovered my perspective I realized anew that lo! I could be a Knicks fan or a Lakers fan or something else equally disheartening right now. So rest and rejuvenate Dubs! See ya on the back side of the season.

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Feb 18, 2022·edited Feb 18, 2022

76ers beat the Bucks 123-120. Game got tense in the end after the Sixers held the Bucks scoreless for a few minutes, but they eventually hang on to win the game .

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Yikes. Bucks were up 116-112 with 3:56 left to go and haven't scored since then. It's reminding me of how the Warriors went scoreless during crucial minutes this season so far.

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That was a fun game. For a second I thought Maxey had 42pts & 14 rebounds!! I was like, damn that kid going to be an MVP. Turns ESPN dropped Embiid stat line on Maxey during his free throws 😂

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Bucks-76ers is a close game.

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Wishing the best for JTA. A great role model.

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I hope he wears one of last year's Oakland Jerseys number 95 of course.

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Juan T, absolute legend. I don’t care if he’s not that impactful on this roster at the moment, the guy has earned his place and brings energy EVERY TIME.

I also hope his dunks don’t get upstaged by JKs dunks in the rising star game…because there are gonna be some dunks

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what happened?!

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In the ASW dunk contest.

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I am too but I expect to be underwhelmed because the dunk contest these days uses nostalgia and props in place of creativity and I don't expect JTA to go against the grain.

One of the reasons J-Rich was so memorable was because he was doing stuff that hadn't been done before, maybe that's too much to expect nowadays because mostly everything has been done.

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Maybe they should now limit it to 1 handed dunks. New baseline to add all those gimmicks to:)

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Wasn’t he the first to go through his legs?

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Vince Carter did it before him

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And JR Rider before Vince

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ah, the wording confused me for a second and thought he got injured or cut

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Me three. I thought he got waived which made me sad - why? I am not even from Oakland. I guess must be that I root for underdawgs!!

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Me too! And then I had to dig into the reply string to find out everything is cool

/insert Denzel sigh of relief gif

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Nothing interesting as far as I know. He's going to be in the dunk contest this weekend.

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wonder if steph or wiggs will be in JTA’s dunk antics.

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Oh yeah that would be cool - get them to miss a 3pt off the back rim for a put back

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Semi-serious questions. Can players give up their salary (or part of) to increase the team salary spend? If I've made more money than 99% of NBA players who've every played, wouldn't I want to take a pay cut to increase roster strength and chances of winning a Championship? Am I crazy? And why do I want to punch Austin Rivers in the face?

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One of the older guys jumped on me when I asked this question a few weeks ago. He said they discussed it tons of times. I’ll let him jump on you and give you his explanation. It didn’t make total sense to me.

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In terms of Steph Curry’s recent max contract, even if he signed an extension at half the rate he’s worth, we would still be hitting the tax. Not sure what kind of salary cap gymnastics we had as options to be able to go for anyone besides minimum contracts and the MLE. Only way we can get better is through the draft and vet min ring chasers as long as we want to keep the core. Otherwise we gotta unload them in some combination.

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Feb 18, 2022·edited Feb 18, 2022

No.

Its rare be allowed to re-negotiate a contract, and even then, only by teams under the cap and the re-negotiated contract can only increase, it cannot be changed to offer cap relief.

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So if next year Wiggins said OK I’ll take the vet minimum, he would not be allowed to make that choice?

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After next season, if he doesn't sign an extension, he will be an UFA. He could sign for whatever he wants at that point, but coming off two championships and two All-Star selections, that would be cray-cray to take the vet minimum.

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Just a hypothetical.

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/Joe Friday gif

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Hahaha that’s true, winning does give the Ego a good ole boost doesn’t it.

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I don’t know the answer to your question, but I’ve also wondered if outside interests, say a sports brand like Anta, or maybe a restaurant owned by Joe Lacob could offer certain players an endorsement only if they played on a certain team, with the hope that getting players to that team helps them win championship and is good for the brand

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In my fantasy I see Nike telling all of its very best players that they have to go play with LeBron on one team.

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

That sounds like something that would be explicitly not allowed since you're circumventing the goal of the salary cap and luxury tax, etc.

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It does presuppose that prime talent would rather get paid more to be on a top heavy team without a back up centre.

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But I think I get the point now. Instead of seeing it as a "Salary Cap" it's more of a "Talent Cap" to keep teams more equal and competitive.

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On the team perspective, it does work out that way. On the individual perspective, especially for superstars, I think it is a salary cap. I saw some analysis looking at European soccer players (no salary cap) that suggested the top NBA players were paid about half of what they should be because their salaries are capped at max or super max. Not that the alternative is better though, I think some of the uncapped sports have superstars really raking it in and all the journeyman that you need to actually have a leage getting by on scraps. Mens pro tennis is a great example of that, and it’s a long term problem for talent development. At least NBA minimum Salary is some real money.

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> stephencurry30

> Verified

> This right here 🙌🏽 Moments you don’t ever forget. Except I forgot Canon’s last words to me “Don’t come off strong side shooter….” Catch y’all after the break!

https://www.instagram.com/p/CaFpFkAlfA3/

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Oh this is so perfect. The dads did not have any to leave.

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There you go, one of the few things in the world more important than basketball.

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I don't want to see any Klay doubters jump back on when Game 6 Klay returns

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Good ole Klay. Be ass just enough to stir up the doubt so he can make those 30 point explosions feel much more potent.

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We’re not trading Klay. Idc. As big of a Warriors fan that I am, I care more for this core (Steph, Klay, Dray, and Iggy) to win another Chip. Tired of that KD savior narrative from these twitter trolls. 73-9 losing 3-1 memes. We all wanted Klay to be at least 80% of who he is when he came back. He is that and then some(Better court vision). He still catching his rhythm and yes his shot selection hasn’t been great. I just attribute that to his eagerness to be out there playing and catching up with lost time. His defense might be a step slower rn but I bet when playoff time comes he’ll put his body on the line like he’s done so in the past. So idc play out the last 3 years of his contract if he does seem to be a shell of himself we’ll just keep him for cheaper. This man bleeds blue and gold, he a warrior for life. Rings without the OG core together wouldn’t be as nice.

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Not with you there. I am a Warriors fan, not a fan of any particular version of the Warriors.

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I feel like "The Splash Brothers" kind of transcends this sentiment for me. And these last few weeks have told me that there really is no modern Warriors without Draymond.

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Which brings up the interesting question of the Young Turks. None of those guys seem to be a savvy all-around defensive player. Payton is a savvy defensive player, but not exactly in the youngest group. Wiggins can be a very good defender when he can. When I look at Moody I do not see Draymond-lite and Payton Is not not large enough to do what Draymond does; he doesn’t seem to be a traffic Director either. Draymond is unique and a force to be reckoned with. Not sure how anyone could replace him, but maybe there are youngish guys out there that I don’t know about.

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Wouldn’t it be nice to have someone come and train with Draymond before he moves on to broadcasting.

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Wiseman and Kuminga?

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Interesting. Right now neither of them seems like the savvy, vocal leader type. But what can you tell about a 19-year-old?

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Who the heck is proposing a Klay trade and have we revoked their Dubs Fan Membership?

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uh im not pointing names however if you look at last night’s post and read down in the comments a bit you’ll find what you’re looking for haha

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

Even if the FO wanted to trade Klay (which they don't and shouldn't), there probably isn't much of a market for him...

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Agreed. $40 mm/year for a guy with that injury background?

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Of course there would be a market for Klay, even if he never got back to 100%. But if they traded him, Myers and Lacob would be tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail by the fans.

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They would be traded!

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

To be clear, if a contender could swing a trade for him without complete gutting their core, they would put a competitive package. But matching his $37M salary is impossible without gutting your top end talent on which your success is based.

It's already hard to put together a reasonable package... and any GM on the other side of the negotiation is thinking "Uhhh... why is Bob selling on Klay? Something fishy here..."

It's not that he's not a worthwhile player, he very much is, but I don't really see a market for him.

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Klay is still one of the better wings in the league. He is still knocking the rust off but I think he would be worth the money to the right team. As for "why is Bob selling," if he were so foolish as to deal Klay, it means that Bob thinks the team is no longer built to win it all so he has to shake it up. That doesn't mean Klay wouldn't have great value to another team. Think Portland trading CJ, not to directly compare CJ to Klay but CJ was traded because, as good as Dame and CJ each are, the combination of two small guards that aren't strong defenders wasn't working. CJ would be a better fit elsewhere, paired with a longer player who is a better defender.

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I think Portland would love to have a defender like Klay.

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

They would but they can't have him and that's that!

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Exactly... and CJ was traded for a lesser sampler platter of decent, but not that impactful players. I'd say there wasn't that much of a market for CJ, and that we'd be looking at similar style of return (hopefully slightly better sampler platter). To which I say: No way, Jose. We ride with Klay by the Bay.

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I agree with your fundamental view that we ride with Klay by the Bay! As for Portland, they needed to deal CJ but I can't say I think highly of their FO. They waited too long to address their problems, until they got desperate. They got rid of Nance (and Snell) in that CJ deal too. As you say, they got back decent but not impactful players, plus a protected first (I don't recall what the protection was) and two second-round picks. They dealt Satoransky and Alexander-Walker from the CJ deal for... Joe Ingles? I mean, good player but he's out with an ACL and who knows if he'll ever play for the Blazers. So I guess that's a salary dump, although they have Ingles' Bird rights. They traded Powell and RoCo, and RoCo is a good defender, something they need. So while I think they had to move CJ, the fact they didn't get a lot back to me is not about CJ, it's about the Blazers FO.

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Yeah I know the trade deadline has past.

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Every time I watch Kuminga fly to the basket, I think of Giannis. I’m wondering how he started his career, did he start as just a very athletic and very talented slasher? And then diversify his skill set? Did he look a bit like Kuminga does now?

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Feb 18, 2022·edited Feb 18, 2022

Watching rookie Giannis clips, JK seems to have better body control, touch around the rim and shooting than rookie Giannis. That being said Giannis had a massive growth spurt after his first season, so those elements came after that. I’m not sure if JK will have a growth spurt like Giannis after this season, as he’s already filled out relative to scrawny rookie Giannis. But hey it would be good times if JK grows like Giannis!

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Thanks for the idea. He looks longer and lankier than Kuminga now that I watch him as a rookie. He didn’t seem to have that startling spin move under the basket that Kuminga has, but maybe he developed it later.

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It’s okay if he doesn’t grow any more. We can’t have two Gianni on the team (Kuminga and Wiseman) or else the league will boycott.

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I saw him live once a while before he was such a household name and yeah, that's what he was doing.

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All i know is kuminga is a better shooter than giannis ;)

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

Loon definitely should have made more of those free throws. But I wouldn't say he wasn't making a big-time defensive impact down the stretch. He played Jokic as well as a 6'9" 'center' can play an MVP 7-footer. He made Jokic give the ball up several times, including on the last play, where Steph messed up. A big part of the problem was that Loon was playing with five fouls down the stretch. Not only was he in a mismatch of size and talent, he also had to play more cautiously than usual.

This can, like many games this season, especially during Green's prolonged absence, and doubly especially over the last several games, be traced back to the lack of big-man depth. If Kerr could have thrown in another legit big here and there, Loon wouldn't have been utterly gassed and most likely wouldn't have been in danger of fouling out, and would have been able to play more aggressively at the end.

Stretches like this are the second most important reason for having a legit (backup) big-man on the roster, especially when your two primary centers average 6'7.5" in height. *All* of the Warriors recent championship teams had a legit big that played a significant role. James will help in this regard; but it's an unknown how big of a factor he'll be in the playoffs. And there's no guarantee Draymond, Loon, or Wiseman won't get inured again--because of all the wear and tear they endure.

The most important reason for having a solid big on the roster to bang around, take fouls, and lessen the load is to *help prevent* injuries and fatigue to your primary bigs in the first place. This is the second season in a row where this has been an issue. Last season the Dubs missed the playoffs. The argument could be made that if they'd won just a few of the games they lost when Green (19) and/or Loon (21) were out could have placed them at 6th in the West, thus bypassing the play-in.

Obviously the Dubs will make a deep run in the playoffs this year, and they have a legit shot at the Chip. But this isn't a non-trivial issue that can continually be ignored or wished away. There's a compounding, trickle down effect that ripples throughout the roster in the form of fatigue and injuries. Myers knows this, which is why he tried to get a big before the season but wasn't able to get who he wanted. He then gambled on Wiseman coming back before Klay, and Green and Loon not getting injured, but so far that hasn't panned out. Hopefully things won't compound even more and it won't have too big of an impact come playoffs, when health is often the deciding factor.

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There’s some theories:

1. There’s big guys we wanted that weren’t interested in us during free agency.

2. There’s big guys that wanted us but wouldn’t quite tip the scale, where the trade off was one of the wings and the wings we had were a better fit for a stronger roster.

3. FO is doubling down on come playoff time we’d be completely healthy and most of the minutes would go to our advantageous small ball line ups. Assuming they could run most big men out of the opposing team’s rotations and hoping we won’t face Giannis or Embiid in the finals. In the West we only really have to worry about Jokic.

4. Remember the Toronto finals where we didn’t have enough wing depth and scoring after we were decimated by injuries? That is probably in the front of the front office’s minds.

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

Every team is scared of not having wing depth. Every team is also scared of not having enough size, including the Warriors. The chances of two of your top three offensive weapons going down in the Finals is miniscule. That was tremendous bad luck. If Klay or KD had stayed healthy, I'm pretty sure the Dubs would have won the series. But, it could be argued that it's precisely *because* the Dubs didn't have enough size (and/or that with such an expensive and top-heavy roster leading to a lack of roster depth, forcing Kerr to shorten the rotation more than usual) that by the time the Finals rolled around everyone on the team was overworked, fatigued, and thus more prone to injuries.

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

A lot of what I wrote anticipated and at least implicitly addressed those 'theories', and more. What those theories don't take into account is that this isn't a new problem, it's now an old problem. Not only is it an old problem, but it's an old problem that didn't used to be a problem, because they used to start the season with a legit, experienced big on the roster. Myers has been banking on James the last two seasons, and it's cost them. When Loon and James went down last year, he could have tried to bring in another big. As soon as it was known James wouldn't be ready for a big chunk of the beginning of this season, Myers could have addressed the issue again ( he tried but couldn't get the big he wanted). In the very least, they should be developing a big in the G-league to bring up as needed.

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They’ve been trying to develop bigs in their gleague I don’t follow closely, last time I checked they gave Jordan Bell(I know, not that big of a big) some time to burn, so I think they have a few work in progress.

Everybody wants wing depth and size from what you’re saying. However, just like football you can’t have everything on the roster. Stacking a roster in every position is nearly impossible. Myers and Co just placed most his eggs in the Wing depth basket. That’s what they’re banking on.

The rationale might be that you can try to cover up injured bigs(we all know how that’s panning out haha) with wings but you can’t cover injured wing depth with bigs.

I’m sure they’ll try to address this with JTA, Lee, or Bjelica’s spot in the summer. For now we gotta keep our fingers crossed for good health and some luck with the playoff bracket.

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But yes I agree that we should try to find some quality big depth, at least 1 assuming we can retain Looney. Maybe we can do so in the upcoming draft. Also I’d wager we can attract attention from some ring chaser bigs come free agency, since we’re contenders again.

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4. Remember the Toronto finals where we didn’t have enough wing depth and scoring after we were decimated by injuries? That is probably in the front of the front office’s minds.

Right? In an alternate universe, we sign Chriss to the 15th spot, GP2 signs elsewhere, Wiseman doesn't need a second surgery, Klay is slow to come back, Kuminga is too raw, and we're decrying the team for going into the season without enough wings behind Wiggins.

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What is confusing to me, is that everyone I know who watches the Warriors ever since training camp has been saying they need one big guy. A real center, not a 6’9” center. Now Wiseman is not back, Looney is used up, and Draymond’s body has given out. Hard for a non-bball player to understand.

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This is what's most confusing to me, all of our title teams had multiple bigman to throughout there starting from ezeli, mo speights andrew bogut, Zaza, David west, mcgee, DeMarcus cousins, damion jones, and now we have only looney for 2 years straight?! Craziness

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Not only that, but the one year where they didn't have a sufficient center rotation (Cousins out half the season and even Jones tearing his pec early in the season), the Warriors physically fell apart by the end of the season.

They shouldn't have had to learn any lessons, the championship formula of getting vet centers to eat minutes in the regular season before unleashing Draymond/Looney in the playoffs was extremely well known. Only explanation I have for what they've done the past two seasons is that they didn't think Curry/Klay/Draymond was capable of being the backbone of a championship contender anymore.

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I am still very excited to see how this postseason plays out. Steph, Klay, and (hopefully) Dray getting back at it.

But this is definitely the main worry that I have. That the front office is already looking to the future.

I obviously could be very wrong about this, but I think it could be a combo of what you outlined plus...they want less competition for Wiseman. Which I guess could be considered one and the same.

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Feb 17, 2022·edited Feb 17, 2022

The other explanation is that they perceive that the game has changed. The guys who used to be 2s are often 3s, 3s are now 4s, 4s play the 5. To some degree (and that degree is debated), the usefulness of a true, old-style 5 is relativized.

But with the injuries piling up -- Dray (back), Bjeli (back), Iguodala (back), Looney (quad?), it's hard not to wonder if a big part of the usefulness of a more traditional 5 is just to keep guys playing at their position instead of playing one position up against bigger guys.

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There are still plenty of true 5s around, and we struggle with them. Utah recently stuffed us without Gobert but they had Whiteside and Azubuike, two 7-footers, and we had no answer. KAT, Jokic, Embiid, Poeltl, Ayton, Zubac — our defense can't slow these guys down enough. (Obviously, nobody stops the best of them.) AD is another one when he wants to be aggressive. Loon doesn't usually play that many minutes, and he can only do so much. A healthy Draymond can contain most of them pretty well but he takes a pounding, and it's hard for him to stay healthy. And as much as I love Wiseman's potential, it's still potential right now. Myers saying we have 5 centers is not accurate. We have two, Loon (who is undersized but IS a 5) and Wiseman. The rest are forwards who can play small ball C sometimes. Of those, only Draymond is really good at it.

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Exactly. If everyone on the team is playing bigger than their size for most of the season, there are bound to be repercussions. It's a risky strategy. The last two seasons attest to that.

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So, I may be getting a little too moneyball here, but under 10s left up by 2, the best game theory play may very well be to foul. Here are my assumptions and math:

Defense probability to allow successful attempted 2pt shot 50%

Defense probability to allow successful attempted contested 3pt shot 33%

Defense probability to allow successful attempted FT 80%

Offense probability to score 1 point 55%

Overtime win probability 50%

Scenario Win probability

Give up contested 3 pointer 67% (67% chance they miss the shot)

Give up 2pt shot 75% (50% chance they miss 2pt shot, 25% chance you win in OT)

Foul and try to score 86% (36% chance they miss a FT, 35% chance they make both FTs and you make a game winner, and 15% chance you win in OT)

If your defense can make them take a low percentage 2pt shot, that's obviously the best play, but that's way easier said than done in the NBA (especially giving Jokic 6s in isolation against Looney)... and of course, giving up an UNCONTESTED 3 point shot is literally the worst thing you can do in that scenario... so, of course that's what Steph did.

A corollary, the Warriors failed this math test against both the Pacers (didn't foul a non-shooting terrible FT shooter and gave up a wide open 3 pointer) and Knicks (went for a 50% shot to get to OT... I like that shot for Klay mid-game, but not in end game scenario).

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One thing I've noticed about the losses to the Nuggets this season are FT shooting. Last night, the Warriors shot 16/24 FTs, with Looney going 3/8. In the December game, the Warriors shot 16/31 FTs, with Kuminga shooting 3/10 and JTA shooting 1/6 from the line!

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This is one of those cases where I wonder if the size disadvantage takes a toll on us and adds fatigue when our guys get to the line. Certainly seemed like it with Looney as he looked absolutely winded near the end of the game.

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Also, Warriors are apparently #18 in FT shooting % (76.3%). The top 5 are:

1. Bulls (81.7%)

2. Heat (81.5%)

3. Celtics (81.4%)

4. 76ers (81.2%)

5. Nets (80.8%)

The bottom 5 are:

26. Spurs (74.3%)

27. Hornets (73.8%)

28. Grizzlies (73.4%)

29. Lakers (72.0%)

30. Rockets (71.6%)

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If I remember correctly, we were even worse earlier in the season... somewhere in the mid-20s.

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And that's 76.3% with Curry and Poole both shooting extremely high percentages. Many of the other guys are really pulling the numbers down.

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From seeding POV, March 28th game against Grizz may not be as big a deal as it may seem. Grizz have virtually locked up the tie breaker (1-2 Dubs-Griz so far and they will be division winner but we won't be).

But a win in that game would do wonders for confidence of everyone but for the OGs.

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still a 2-game swing in relative standings tho

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So they’ve already won the tie breaker. Good share.

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Yeah seems that way. Even if we win, we will be 2-2 and then tie breaker is division winner. Suns will win our division and Grizz are #1 in their division with 6 game margin.

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Well... if the Grizzlies don't win their division there would be another team to worry about.

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I can’t imagine a world where Tristan Thompson isn’t more valuable to us than Beli. It’s quite impossible. Why didn’t we make a run at him again? Because this latest stretch tells you we’re just ducky?

There are up and downsides to our front office and coaching staff having a vision and sticking to it. We talk about the upside a lot- their vision for Poole, Wiggins, keeping the picks, developing, etc. But the downside of always staying the course is that sometimes when you’re paranoid it’s because someone IS trying to get you.

Last year we made no moves and ran out of gas. This year we’re not reacting to injuries and Beli’s being completely unplayable. This is just frustrating

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I can understand getting a RoLo or Gasol via buyout and then not cutting a big. But TT?!

TT for Bjelica is absolutely underwhelming...

1. If we trade big for big, we don't actually address depth at C

2. TT is bigger and can rebound better... and that's about it

3. He can't space the floor. (And even though Beli hasn't been hitting his shots, his defender still has to stay out on him... for now.)

4. He can't pass.

5. Defensively, he cannot close out perimeter shooters (one thing Beli actually does well on defense). And I doubt he can switch on wings any better.

6. Draymond thinks he sucks

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author

> I can’t imagine a world where Tristan Thompson isn’t more valuable to us

It's just a different flavor of unplayable. You can look up his numbers if you like, but he just doesn't do much to help teams win - even if he is slightly better at some aspects of basketball than Bjeli

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Could Thompson's reputation be another factor? Has he had any locker room dramas or any bad attitudes throughout his career?

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My guess is that:

- Not enough time left for TT (or another) to be integrated in Dubs' motion offense. Especially considering that they will be trying to get Wise integrated as well.

- Letting Belli go creates bad narrative if we want to get ring chasers next couple of years

- Locker room dynamics

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“Not cut from the same cloth”. Just ask Draymond.

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Maybe, but I mean, we did it with Cassipi. And you have the good narrative around OPJ to offset. Beli has been god awful. He’s not deserving of a roster spot

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I think this is a little harsh. He’s a min player and gives the coaching staff line up options. He’s definitely getting more playing time he would have with a healthy wiseman, but I think he still brings value

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The Knicks have been pathetic this whole season pretty much and especially in the last 1-2 months so of course we were their only win in the month of February

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