I've avoided all things NBA for the last 24 hours because I was in a complete adolescent snit about last night's game. Having recovered my perspective I realized anew that lo! I could be a Knicks fan or a Lakers fan or something else equally disheartening right now. So rest and rejuvenate Dubs! See ya on the back side of the season.
76ers beat the Bucks 123-120. Game got tense in the end after the Sixers held the Bucks scoreless for a few minutes, but they eventually hang on to win the game .
Yikes. Bucks were up 116-112 with 3:56 left to go and haven't scored since then. It's reminding me of how the Warriors went scoreless during crucial minutes this season so far.
Semi-serious questions. Can players give up their salary (or part of) to increase the team salary spend? If I've made more money than 99% of NBA players who've every played, wouldn't I want to take a pay cut to increase roster strength and chances of winning a Championship? Am I crazy? And why do I want to punch Austin Rivers in the face?
> This right here 🙌🏽 Moments you don’t ever forget. Except I forgot Canon’s last words to me “Don’t come off strong side shooter….” Catch y’all after the break!
We’re not trading Klay. Idc. As big of a Warriors fan that I am, I care more for this core (Steph, Klay, Dray, and Iggy) to win another Chip. Tired of that KD savior narrative from these twitter trolls. 73-9 losing 3-1 memes. We all wanted Klay to be at least 80% of who he is when he came back. He is that and then some(Better court vision). He still catching his rhythm and yes his shot selection hasn’t been great. I just attribute that to his eagerness to be out there playing and catching up with lost time. His defense might be a step slower rn but I bet when playoff time comes he’ll put his body on the line like he’s done so in the past. So idc play out the last 3 years of his contract if he does seem to be a shell of himself we’ll just keep him for cheaper. This man bleeds blue and gold, he a warrior for life. Rings without the OG core together wouldn’t be as nice.
Every time I watch Kuminga fly to the basket, I think of Giannis. I’m wondering how he started his career, did he start as just a very athletic and very talented slasher? And then diversify his skill set? Did he look a bit like Kuminga does now?
Loon definitely should have made more of those free throws. But I wouldn't say he wasn't making a big-time defensive impact down the stretch. He played Jokic as well as a 6'9" 'center' can play an MVP 7-footer. He made Jokic give the ball up several times, including on the last play, where Steph messed up. A big part of the problem was that Loon was playing with five fouls down the stretch. Not only was he in a mismatch of size and talent, he also had to play more cautiously than usual.
This can, like many games this season, especially during Green's prolonged absence, and doubly especially over the last several games, be traced back to the lack of big-man depth. If Kerr could have thrown in another legit big here and there, Loon wouldn't have been utterly gassed and most likely wouldn't have been in danger of fouling out, and would have been able to play more aggressively at the end.
Stretches like this are the second most important reason for having a legit (backup) big-man on the roster, especially when your two primary centers average 6'7.5" in height. *All* of the Warriors recent championship teams had a legit big that played a significant role. James will help in this regard; but it's an unknown how big of a factor he'll be in the playoffs. And there's no guarantee Draymond, Loon, or Wiseman won't get inured again--because of all the wear and tear they endure.
The most important reason for having a solid big on the roster to bang around, take fouls, and lessen the load is to *help prevent* injuries and fatigue to your primary bigs in the first place. This is the second season in a row where this has been an issue. Last season the Dubs missed the playoffs. The argument could be made that if they'd won just a few of the games they lost when Green (19) and/or Loon (21) were out could have placed them at 6th in the West, thus bypassing the play-in.
Obviously the Dubs will make a deep run in the playoffs this year, and they have a legit shot at the Chip. But this isn't a non-trivial issue that can continually be ignored or wished away. There's a compounding, trickle down effect that ripples throughout the roster in the form of fatigue and injuries. Myers knows this, which is why he tried to get a big before the season but wasn't able to get who he wanted. He then gambled on Wiseman coming back before Klay, and Green and Loon not getting injured, but so far that hasn't panned out. Hopefully things won't compound even more and it won't have too big of an impact come playoffs, when health is often the deciding factor.
So, I may be getting a little too moneyball here, but under 10s left up by 2, the best game theory play may very well be to foul. Here are my assumptions and math:
Defense probability to allow successful attempted 2pt shot 50%
Defense probability to allow successful attempted contested 3pt shot 33%
Defense probability to allow successful attempted FT 80%
Offense probability to score 1 point 55%
Overtime win probability 50%
Scenario Win probability
Give up contested 3 pointer 67% (67% chance they miss the shot)
Give up 2pt shot 75% (50% chance they miss 2pt shot, 25% chance you win in OT)
Foul and try to score 86% (36% chance they miss a FT, 35% chance they make both FTs and you make a game winner, and 15% chance you win in OT)
If your defense can make them take a low percentage 2pt shot, that's obviously the best play, but that's way easier said than done in the NBA (especially giving Jokic 6s in isolation against Looney)... and of course, giving up an UNCONTESTED 3 point shot is literally the worst thing you can do in that scenario... so, of course that's what Steph did.
A corollary, the Warriors failed this math test against both the Pacers (didn't foul a non-shooting terrible FT shooter and gave up a wide open 3 pointer) and Knicks (went for a 50% shot to get to OT... I like that shot for Klay mid-game, but not in end game scenario).
One thing I've noticed about the losses to the Nuggets this season are FT shooting. Last night, the Warriors shot 16/24 FTs, with Looney going 3/8. In the December game, the Warriors shot 16/31 FTs, with Kuminga shooting 3/10 and JTA shooting 1/6 from the line!
From seeding POV, March 28th game against Grizz may not be as big a deal as it may seem. Grizz have virtually locked up the tie breaker (1-2 Dubs-Griz so far and they will be division winner but we won't be).
But a win in that game would do wonders for confidence of everyone but for the OGs.
I can’t imagine a world where Tristan Thompson isn’t more valuable to us than Beli. It’s quite impossible. Why didn’t we make a run at him again? Because this latest stretch tells you we’re just ducky?
There are up and downsides to our front office and coaching staff having a vision and sticking to it. We talk about the upside a lot- their vision for Poole, Wiggins, keeping the picks, developing, etc. But the downside of always staying the course is that sometimes when you’re paranoid it’s because someone IS trying to get you.
Last year we made no moves and ran out of gas. This year we’re not reacting to injuries and Beli’s being completely unplayable. This is just frustrating
The Knicks have been pathetic this whole season pretty much and especially in the last 1-2 months so of course we were their only win in the month of February
I've avoided all things NBA for the last 24 hours because I was in a complete adolescent snit about last night's game. Having recovered my perspective I realized anew that lo! I could be a Knicks fan or a Lakers fan or something else equally disheartening right now. So rest and rejuvenate Dubs! See ya on the back side of the season.
76ers beat the Bucks 123-120. Game got tense in the end after the Sixers held the Bucks scoreless for a few minutes, but they eventually hang on to win the game .
Yikes. Bucks were up 116-112 with 3:56 left to go and haven't scored since then. It's reminding me of how the Warriors went scoreless during crucial minutes this season so far.
Bucks-76ers is a close game.
Wishing the best for JTA. A great role model.
Semi-serious questions. Can players give up their salary (or part of) to increase the team salary spend? If I've made more money than 99% of NBA players who've every played, wouldn't I want to take a pay cut to increase roster strength and chances of winning a Championship? Am I crazy? And why do I want to punch Austin Rivers in the face?
> stephencurry30
> Verified
> This right here 🙌🏽 Moments you don’t ever forget. Except I forgot Canon’s last words to me “Don’t come off strong side shooter….” Catch y’all after the break!
https://www.instagram.com/p/CaFpFkAlfA3/
I don't want to see any Klay doubters jump back on when Game 6 Klay returns
We’re not trading Klay. Idc. As big of a Warriors fan that I am, I care more for this core (Steph, Klay, Dray, and Iggy) to win another Chip. Tired of that KD savior narrative from these twitter trolls. 73-9 losing 3-1 memes. We all wanted Klay to be at least 80% of who he is when he came back. He is that and then some(Better court vision). He still catching his rhythm and yes his shot selection hasn’t been great. I just attribute that to his eagerness to be out there playing and catching up with lost time. His defense might be a step slower rn but I bet when playoff time comes he’ll put his body on the line like he’s done so in the past. So idc play out the last 3 years of his contract if he does seem to be a shell of himself we’ll just keep him for cheaper. This man bleeds blue and gold, he a warrior for life. Rings without the OG core together wouldn’t be as nice.
Every time I watch Kuminga fly to the basket, I think of Giannis. I’m wondering how he started his career, did he start as just a very athletic and very talented slasher? And then diversify his skill set? Did he look a bit like Kuminga does now?
Loon definitely should have made more of those free throws. But I wouldn't say he wasn't making a big-time defensive impact down the stretch. He played Jokic as well as a 6'9" 'center' can play an MVP 7-footer. He made Jokic give the ball up several times, including on the last play, where Steph messed up. A big part of the problem was that Loon was playing with five fouls down the stretch. Not only was he in a mismatch of size and talent, he also had to play more cautiously than usual.
This can, like many games this season, especially during Green's prolonged absence, and doubly especially over the last several games, be traced back to the lack of big-man depth. If Kerr could have thrown in another legit big here and there, Loon wouldn't have been utterly gassed and most likely wouldn't have been in danger of fouling out, and would have been able to play more aggressively at the end.
Stretches like this are the second most important reason for having a legit (backup) big-man on the roster, especially when your two primary centers average 6'7.5" in height. *All* of the Warriors recent championship teams had a legit big that played a significant role. James will help in this regard; but it's an unknown how big of a factor he'll be in the playoffs. And there's no guarantee Draymond, Loon, or Wiseman won't get inured again--because of all the wear and tear they endure.
The most important reason for having a solid big on the roster to bang around, take fouls, and lessen the load is to *help prevent* injuries and fatigue to your primary bigs in the first place. This is the second season in a row where this has been an issue. Last season the Dubs missed the playoffs. The argument could be made that if they'd won just a few of the games they lost when Green (19) and/or Loon (21) were out could have placed them at 6th in the West, thus bypassing the play-in.
Obviously the Dubs will make a deep run in the playoffs this year, and they have a legit shot at the Chip. But this isn't a non-trivial issue that can continually be ignored or wished away. There's a compounding, trickle down effect that ripples throughout the roster in the form of fatigue and injuries. Myers knows this, which is why he tried to get a big before the season but wasn't able to get who he wanted. He then gambled on Wiseman coming back before Klay, and Green and Loon not getting injured, but so far that hasn't panned out. Hopefully things won't compound even more and it won't have too big of an impact come playoffs, when health is often the deciding factor.
So, I may be getting a little too moneyball here, but under 10s left up by 2, the best game theory play may very well be to foul. Here are my assumptions and math:
Defense probability to allow successful attempted 2pt shot 50%
Defense probability to allow successful attempted contested 3pt shot 33%
Defense probability to allow successful attempted FT 80%
Offense probability to score 1 point 55%
Overtime win probability 50%
Scenario Win probability
Give up contested 3 pointer 67% (67% chance they miss the shot)
Give up 2pt shot 75% (50% chance they miss 2pt shot, 25% chance you win in OT)
Foul and try to score 86% (36% chance they miss a FT, 35% chance they make both FTs and you make a game winner, and 15% chance you win in OT)
If your defense can make them take a low percentage 2pt shot, that's obviously the best play, but that's way easier said than done in the NBA (especially giving Jokic 6s in isolation against Looney)... and of course, giving up an UNCONTESTED 3 point shot is literally the worst thing you can do in that scenario... so, of course that's what Steph did.
A corollary, the Warriors failed this math test against both the Pacers (didn't foul a non-shooting terrible FT shooter and gave up a wide open 3 pointer) and Knicks (went for a 50% shot to get to OT... I like that shot for Klay mid-game, but not in end game scenario).
One thing I've noticed about the losses to the Nuggets this season are FT shooting. Last night, the Warriors shot 16/24 FTs, with Looney going 3/8. In the December game, the Warriors shot 16/31 FTs, with Kuminga shooting 3/10 and JTA shooting 1/6 from the line!
From seeding POV, March 28th game against Grizz may not be as big a deal as it may seem. Grizz have virtually locked up the tie breaker (1-2 Dubs-Griz so far and they will be division winner but we won't be).
But a win in that game would do wonders for confidence of everyone but for the OGs.
I can’t imagine a world where Tristan Thompson isn’t more valuable to us than Beli. It’s quite impossible. Why didn’t we make a run at him again? Because this latest stretch tells you we’re just ducky?
There are up and downsides to our front office and coaching staff having a vision and sticking to it. We talk about the upside a lot- their vision for Poole, Wiggins, keeping the picks, developing, etc. But the downside of always staying the course is that sometimes when you’re paranoid it’s because someone IS trying to get you.
Last year we made no moves and ran out of gas. This year we’re not reacting to injuries and Beli’s being completely unplayable. This is just frustrating
The Knicks have been pathetic this whole season pretty much and especially in the last 1-2 months so of course we were their only win in the month of February