This is Draymond's first game in like a year, so I don't know what to expect other than he'll probably be rusty and the online Warrior fanbase does not seem like they want to hear "give him a few games to get back in the flow" at the moment.
Wiseman should have a speed advantage over Nurkic, hopefully the Warriors look to exploit that in transition now that they have him playing with Draymond who can grab a rebound.
I too disagree. My guess is that he won't be playing more than 5 min per quarter - all with Steph and Wiseman I presume. But in those 5 minutes each, he will be impactful on O and D. But I do expect high TOVs. I worry about him popping a vessel though when he sees people out of place /s/.
Eh disagree. I think based on last year's play plus everything that has happened around this team, I think we're going to hang on to every little good thing Draymond does tonight and ascribe the rest to rust and/or Covid.
My prediction for the night: Draymond has some moments but looks rusty, commits a bunch of turnovers. Wiseman looks amazing, especially in minutes where Nurkic sits, but Dame and CJ both get hot. The game is close until the 4th when a Portland streak puts them too far ahead. Oh, and some random bench player on the Blazers has a career night.
I fully expect that whoever loses this one will win the runback game on Sunday. Don't care how bad we are, the rivalry between these teams is special and the second game will be totally different than the first.
I'm glad you bring up Mannion. I nearly flipped my tv over when I saw the Dubs pick him over Isaiah Joe. Which brings me to my overlying point. Myers and the FO value Multi Skill Positional players. What did Poole do exceptionally well in college? Nothing. But he could shoot at a decent clip, defend ok for his position and most importantly run point or play off ball. Same with Evans. Jury still out on Poole obviously but I'd argue he does nothing that can be considered even average at the NBA level.
Now take Morey in Philly, what does he value? Shooting. He's put a whole bunch of shooters around Simmons and Embiid to adequately space out the floor. What did Isaiah Joe do exceptionally well in college? Shoot the rock. He's seeing some playing time this year because of that ability. Mannion is not.
It's easier to find players late in the first or second round that can do one thing well. Much harder to find a player that can pass, shoot, defend, anticipate, play various positions and have a high bball iq all those things at a competent level. Draymond is the outlier obviously. McCaw has come the closest and full credit to Myers for identifying his abilities but there are reasons why multi skill players such as Iguodala, Livingston, Rush, Curry, Thompson, KD, West, Bogut were drafted at the top half of the draft. Much much much harder to find and/or develop those types of players when you are consistently drafting in the back half of the draft.
Regardless of if Mannion is good or not, the reason he hasn't even been considered for playing time so far is due to Draymond's injury making JTA a key rotation player, and the limits for how much two-way contracts If JTA plays 50 games, Mannion can only play 30. Given that he might need to play if Curry gets injured, it doesn't make sense to use any of his eligibility this early in the season.
From what I can tell, Joe has only played in garbage time so far? Mannion definitely would have played in garbage time in those first two games if he had a roster spot imo. Also, Joe is 21 and Mannion is 19, so Joe should be more NBA ready right now.
My argument admittedly came across as Joe getting minutes so therefore Joe would have gotten minutes here. That was not my intent. I used both as an example because a). Those are the two players that surprisingly I saw play quite a bit in college. I saw Mannion do nothing well.. nothing that I feel would translate directly to the NBA even in 2-3 years. Joe on the other hand I saw shooting that I felt translated well to the NBA level even if he would have followed the same D League trajectory as Mannion.
I never watched Jessup so I can't comment but yes just based on highlights we got someone that seems to shoot the lights out. That's all I can ask for.
Sounds like he was involved in finding JTA and recommending Mulder to the Warriors. It also sounds like he may have had a role in finding Ryan Taylor, who I'm intrigued about as a bench shooter for the Warriors (if no one else signs him).
Also also (I wish there was an edit button), while I don't know about the Warrior FO, I do still give Kerr the benefit of the doubt. And he was unusually involved in this past draft due to the long layoff. If he was involved in selecting Mannion, I'm going to wait and see. Maybe he sees a hitch in Mannion's shot or something (it sounds like the Warriors identified a hitch in Wiseman's shot where he put his guide hand over the ball when he was shooting, and I highly doubt it was Kirk Lacob who noticed it so I'll assume it was Kerr or Adams or another coach).
I also think it's kind of ridiculous that you will discount Paschall as a player, saying you haven't seen him enough to make an evaluation even after he played most of a season last year, and are comfortable making any kind of declarative statement about Joe after what, 5 games?
Apples to Oranges dear sir/ma'am I've been very consistent on these threads that I feel all Three 2019 picks are not going to amount to much when evaluated in a couple of years from now. BUT I've also said it's unfair to judge these picks so soon when making an individual evaluation of the FO. No pick is Jacob Evans not even Smiley. That was an easy call for me as much as I got blasted at the time.
I've also been consistent in saying that having seen both players in college, I would have preferred the Warriors drafted Isaiah Joe. The possibilities of both being out of the league in 2-3 years is pretty high.
So my comparison/evaluation has never been about Paschall vs Joe.
I've watched some of Isaiah Joe's play for the 6ers so far and have seen nothing yet to suggest he will stick in this league as a rotational player, neither in his play itself or his level of opposition. Certainly nothing to validate crapping on the Mannion pick.
But again I'm not basing it on current play hence why I even corrected some of my own terminology that my argument has always been based on what I saw in college. Simply put, I feel Mannion has no translatable skills. Isaiah Joe has one: shooting.
We have yet to see if that is a skill that will actually translate. If you won't make a declarative statement on Paschal's play after a season, saying Joe has nba-translable skills after 5 games is way premature.
Anybody watching Lonzo Ball in HS and even overseas has said "Wow this kid can pass" hence people feeling that that skill would translate to the NBA. Is it too soon to say it did. I'd argue yes. Most people would say it's already there. Same concept. I'm NOT basing his play on preseason or last 5 games. I've done been telling you that when I saw Joe in college I saw. Really pretty quick release shot that could easily translate to the NBA. Iwhether it does or not is simply a question of letting his play speak for itself.
Why would you get so upset about a back-of-the-draft pick? I legit don't understand. The odds are so stacked against them amounting to anything. Mannion actually seems pretty skilled. If his shot comes around (BIG IF, I know) then he could be a serviceable PG backup at some point, I think.
Figuratively speaking my friend. I have a really nice tv. But why was I upset? Because look at the narrative throughout the preseason and start of the regular season: we need shooting. It's why the fan base myself included have been clamoring for Mulder and Lee to get playing time. Both undrafted. What did Isaiah Joe do much better than Mannion in college? Shoot the rock. What have we been clamoring for so long lately? Kerr needs to play the shooters to open up some space for Curry and Wiggins.
IIRC, we needed a future backup PG, and we did not have Wanamaker when we took Mannion. Poole still has a lot to prove at PG, even if we did pick up his option. I had not seen much of Mannion before we drafted him, just highlights and clips, and I wasn't excited. But in the preseason games, I liked his handles, confidence, and passing, and for a rookie with no summer league and a short training camp, he seemed to have a good idea of what he was doing. For a 2nd rounder, fair enough. I'm not jumping up and down with glee but it's way too soon to judge that pick.
And that's fair. I can respect that. I spent most of that 2nd round hoping another team would draft Mannion and as time got closer to our pick I was "Anybody but Mannion" and as our turn neared and I saw Isaiah Joe (who I saw in a couple of games on tv just shooting the crap out of that ball) I was like Please Please Please him but if not him not Mannion so yeah I was frustrated.
I watched all but two of U of A games last year. In my opinion, Mannion does not have the high upside that I want the FO to take a gamble on nor does he have the necessary floor. I'm a Dubs fan first though and if he hits then I'll gladly say I'm wrong. Right now I think it's another wasted pick. I thought Wiseman was gonna be unplayable for most of the year. I am happily wrong on that
Besides, in the interests of diversity we should have a redhead once in awhile. You can instantly spot him on the court anytime, even without a really nice TV! 😉
Currently the team is 2-2. The only reason we "needed" shooting was because right before the draft Klay went down. I trust this FO to have a proactive plan better than the reactionary fanbase, myself included. I hear you, and appreciate your concerns. Just speaking my piece.
I used Morey as an example of a singular skill he's identified to form players around his core. Let's not act like the Rockets have been dog crap all these years. The Warriors just happened to be better.
If you want to measure strict playoff success as the only factor in what makes a good GM be my guest. I personally would take Morey or Ujiri on this team over Bob and they have much less playoff success than the Dubs. But what I've never ever said is that Myers was a bad GM. I've said for the longest of time that there are a few GMs better than him when it comes to identifying late round talent and/or fit based on what the Warriors look for in those players.
He’s depth, but as our 4th string center behind Wiseman, Looney and Green....and our 3rd string PF behind Green, JTA and Wiggins, “need” might be too strong a term.
Green can't be playing center like that anymore. He might be high on the depth chart come playoff time, but Paschall needs to be above him otherwise imo.
When we talk about wings and PFs and even small-ball Cs nowadays, it's a little misleading because the positions are not so neatly categorized as they once were. Wiggins can play the 4 but he's really a wing - loosely defined. Paschall is a wide body, and he has more offensive upside than Juan, but his D needs to improve. If that happens, Paschall will be the 2nd string PF. Dray is a great small-ball C but he takes too much of a pounding there, so I hope Kerr can avoid doing that. Paschall is young, let him take the pounding when Wiseman and Looney sit.
It's a matter of opinion, I guess. JTA's a better passer and defender but Paschall is by far the better scorer. Paschall was 4th in scoring in the Detroit game, 10 pts in 13:29, twice what JTA got in almost 24 minutes, but got more assists. Paschall was 3rd in scoring against the Bulls, 15 in 19:07, 3x what JTA scored in about the same time. Paschall needs to develop a better all-around game but I think we need those points. Your mileage may differ.
Glad to Draymond back. Hoping for no recurring Covid issues. Excited to see more Wiseman and improved play from Oubre. Happy New Years Ladies and Gents!
Wiseman wont have to cover as much ground w Dray and Oubre bodying up and terrorizing the ball handlers in front of him...it cannot be overstated just how much Dray means to this team.
Also, being the best passer on the team (yes even over steph) he will find and direct JW under the rim early and often
Dame vs Steph will be fun. I think Dame gets extra inspiration when he plays us, even if we're not in Oakland now. I think they're better than we are right now without Dray but if he's really ready to play, we have a good shot at splitting the two games. Hey, we can dream of taking both! But Duby, you wrote "hopeful squads in New Jersey and Milwaukee"... is Brooklyn in New Jersey nowadays? 😉
There is a good reason 538's newish (summer 2019) defense metric is called "DRAYMOND" (Defensive Rating Accounting for Yielding Minimal Openness by Nearest Defender) [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-better-way-to-evaluate-nba-defense/]. As the rating shows, Dray minimizes openness. So pumped to have him back!
I love 538 for political models, but their player projection stuff has been pretty borked for years. This looks like more of a "look back" rather than "look ahead" tool though, and I love the basic premise behind it:
> ...it does get at one essential discovery we made in playing around with the opponents’ shooting data: the idea of minimizing openness. The main goal of shooting defense, especially in today’s spacing-centric, ball-movement-forward offensive era, is really to minimize the chance of an open shot.
I don't disagree with the final list they came up with, but you can see a pretty clear model bias towards bigs that tend to switch and recover a lot. It's cool to see Dray at the top of their model results, but I'd honestly prefer to just use simple defense numbers without all those adjustments 538 seems to be doing.
Do you think Wiseman could eventually do well by this metric? I'm not sure how bad his lateral movement will be limited in the long run- I guess we'll see how the original Draymond can coach him up in this regard.
Speaking of the draft, I was listening to Sam Vecenies latest podcast on the 2021 nba draft and also was reading a couple of other pundits on it and it seems that the draft is not the end all be all all time draft in terms of top end talent. Yes it's still shaping up to be a solid draft but due to obvious Covid limitations there exists the same uncertainty that befell the 2020 nba draft and some people are starting to shy away from labeling the top prospects bonafide superstars. I bring that up because If there is a trade to be had, I wonder how lucrative that 2021 Minny pick will now be looking. If anything, Wiseman has boosted up the trade value of his draft slot BUT can't imagine any player made available outside of Giannis' that they would trade Wiseman for at this point.
I mean, the pick is top three protected, so even if the top prospects looked like superstars, it wouldn’t affect the value of the pick that much.
It’s hard to say much about the draft this far out, other than that Cunningham and Mobley both look pretty studly, and that there are a whole lot of Jalens...
In any case, I doubt the value of the Minny pick has changed substantially since the college season started, if that’s what you’re stressing about these days, lol.
I know that I'm crying over spilt milk, but Gary Trent apparently has developed a Beast Mode. Before that draft, some prognosticators had him going to the Warriors and he was available but we picked...give me a minute, I'm thinking...
Go through the archives on this site and find the series that was done on the Warriors recent drafts. It puts some real analysis on the picks (and missed picks) of the last few years).
I'd also ask that you take a look at the history of whichever team has landed that young stud. Portland has a pretty long list of misses / expected returns from late in the draft
The problem with this FO is that they've been trying to find the next Iguodala and Livingston in the draft for the last few years instead of choosing the best available talent or players that do one or two things really really well (like shooting or getting to the basket).
The problem with the FO obviously is that Iguodala and Livingston were lottery picks. Very hard to duplicate their Jack of All Trades skill set with players late in the first or second round (but they try and try because they hit paydirt with Draymond once). However, if James Wiseman (who I wasn't as high on) becomes a bonafide superstar, all will be forgiven.
One nitpick: Livingston was a shell of the “lottery pick” he once was when he signed with us. He likely never would’ve been a Warrior in circumstances without his injury. (I’d argue the same thing about Bogut; no one would trade him for Ellis if his arm hadn’t been wrecked.)
If course. But he still had all the attributes that made him a high lottery pick. The injury just robbed him of pure athletic ability. One decent example at the extreme end is Brandon Rush. Also a Lottery pick, But for Rush that injury wasn't as much career altering as it was career ending. It could be argued though that had Rush been healthy, we could have made it to the Finals in 2013. Instead we had Jefferson airballing free throws.
Sorry I digress, my point is that outside of a once in a lifetime hit in Draymond, we've been trying to duplicate what Iguodala and Livingston bring to the table and I think there's an obvious reasons why players like them and Rush were lottery picks. McCaw has come the closest but you can still see his very obvious limitations (when not injured).
“But he still had all the attributes that made him a high lottery pick. The injury just robbed him of pure athletic ability.”
So you’re saying that his pure athletic ability was not an attribute that made him a lottery pick? I can’t disagree more strongly. If he’d blown out his knee, rehabbed, then entered the draft, he wouldn’t have been a lottery pick.
Its very hard to to hit on picks at the end of the 1st and 2nd round. Its the equivalent of 5th 6th and 7th round picks for the NFL... very low % chances
Bob Myers landed Dray Looney and Paschall...thats actually a really good track record of late picks in the grand scheme of things.
If u expect to get a solid or great player everytime, then ur dreaming.
I would hold off on Eric Paschalls evaluation (and on the flip side Poole even though I don't think he belongs in the NBA) Right now Paschal's playability has been reduced to a 3rd string small ball Center due to injuries. Any other role he's looked horrid.
That leaves 2 players drafted since 2012 that you can consider solid. Obviously Draymond may count for 3-4 hits alone lol and Looney is a solid rotation player but you're still talking a below average track record of drafting in the back half of the draft.
I wouldnt hold off w Paschall...at all. Hes been a solid contributor off of the bench...thats what u call easily out performing ur draft status being a 2nd rounder...which is basically almost falling out of the draft entirely.
U need to "hold off" on ur expectations on draft picks. No team picking where we've been hits on 50% of their picks in any sport
Also, when considering Draymond being a borderline HOF'er, its hard to ask for more than that from ur GM. Dray has been the best or one of the best 2nd round picks in NBA history
If you want this discussion to be meaningful, compare the back half picks of other teams. Also, Paschall contributes meaningful minutes. You can't just write that off.
No I'm not including Paschall because anytime I've brought up Smailigic or Evans in the past I've been asked to give it time to evaluate. I can revisit this conversation next year once Poole and Paschall and Smailigic have another full season under their belts. I'll try to find the hit rate for the other 29 teams. I did this once before on GSOM but I haven't logged on in forever so this may take awhile.
Saying all that, since 2012, IF you simply assign a positive value to each 'hit' and 1 negative value to each miss, the Warriors have had 3 hits:
Draymond
Looney
Patrick McCaw (currently injured but a solid rotation player for the Raptors)
6 Misses:
Festus Ezeli
Ogjen Kuzmic
Nemanja Nedovic
Damian Jones
Jordan Bell
Jacob Evans
For comparison I pulled Masai Ujiri when he was hired in 2013 in the back half of the draft
Hits:
Delon Wright
Pascal Siakam
OG Anunoby
Misses:
Bruno Cabocll
Deandre Daniels
Xavier Thames
That's about a 50 percent hit rate. Yes admittedly the higher you go in the draft the better your chances of hitting and Toronto has drafted ahead of the Warriors last few years. But that's the basis that I had for comparing the other 29 teams. Toronto was somewhere top 10. Warriors when lumped against the other 29 teams have been below average. They are not the worst 'botton half of the drsft' drafting team but theybstil sit below average which is what I have always maintained. Their hit rate is below average and I'm willing to bet YOU a dining gift card that when we include the 2019 draft (especially seeing who got drafted immediately after Poole and giving up assets to move up to Smailigic) that it will be more of the same.
Yes, TOR picked much higher than us in the Bob Myers era...thus my comparison to picking late in the NFL draft.
So, in the NBA, that means picking in the middle of the 1st vs the end of the 1st is the NFL equivalent of picking in the 1st round vs the 5th 6th or 7th round in the NFL...so of course its much more likely u hit if ur TOR.
Didn’t Apricot spend several articles analyzing Warriors’ picks, look at who else was available and conclude that the Warriors draft history is not the train wreck people have arguing like this?
What excites me is that Wiseman is showing he can really shoot, he learns fast, and he will gain confidence while learning from Dray and Steph and the coaches. IIRC, in the Piston game at one point Wiseman left his feet on an upfake, Dray took him aside and talked to him, and after that Wiseman stayed on the ground and used his reach instead of going for those fakes. The kid listens and responds. He seems very coachable, and that's going to help him reach his potential. He, Dray, and Steph will be a problem for the league but next season when Klay comes back, that REALLY will be a problem for the league.
When the game starts, please move over to the Game Thread I just posted. Or move there now, whatever, I'm not your parent. OR AM I???
Man game starts at 7:30. For some reason I thought they'd be doing 7 pm games this year due to Covid restrictions.
On the bright side, it’ll give you an extra half hour to find something else to be concerned about. :-)
According to the NBA standings:
-Everyone has lost at least one game now. Magic was the last team to go undefeated before they lost last night.
-Raptors and Rockets got their first win of the season yesterday.
-Pistons and Wizards are still winless. They both have the chance to break their winless streak tonight.
How reliable a source are these so-called “NBA standings”? Fake news!
This is Draymond's first game in like a year, so I don't know what to expect other than he'll probably be rusty and the online Warrior fanbase does not seem like they want to hear "give him a few games to get back in the flow" at the moment.
Wiseman should have a speed advantage over Nurkic, hopefully the Warriors look to exploit that in transition now that they have him playing with Draymond who can grab a rebound.
I too disagree. My guess is that he won't be playing more than 5 min per quarter - all with Steph and Wiseman I presume. But in those 5 minutes each, he will be impactful on O and D. But I do expect high TOVs. I worry about him popping a vessel though when he sees people out of place /s/.
Eh disagree. I think based on last year's play plus everything that has happened around this team, I think we're going to hang on to every little good thing Draymond does tonight and ascribe the rest to rust and/or Covid.
My prediction for the night: Draymond has some moments but looks rusty, commits a bunch of turnovers. Wiseman looks amazing, especially in minutes where Nurkic sits, but Dame and CJ both get hot. The game is close until the 4th when a Portland streak puts them too far ahead. Oh, and some random bench player on the Blazers has a career night.
Nah! We winning this one. You gonna get a game like '19 WCF.
I fully expect that whoever loses this one will win the runback game on Sunday. Don't care how bad we are, the rivalry between these teams is special and the second game will be totally different than the first.
Anything can happen... but yea this is likely the result based on the fact that the team is still adjusting
Tonight and Sunday are especially exciting for me, since these are my two fave NBA teams.
@GlueandBold
I'm glad you bring up Mannion. I nearly flipped my tv over when I saw the Dubs pick him over Isaiah Joe. Which brings me to my overlying point. Myers and the FO value Multi Skill Positional players. What did Poole do exceptionally well in college? Nothing. But he could shoot at a decent clip, defend ok for his position and most importantly run point or play off ball. Same with Evans. Jury still out on Poole obviously but I'd argue he does nothing that can be considered even average at the NBA level.
Now take Morey in Philly, what does he value? Shooting. He's put a whole bunch of shooters around Simmons and Embiid to adequately space out the floor. What did Isaiah Joe do exceptionally well in college? Shoot the rock. He's seeing some playing time this year because of that ability. Mannion is not.
It's easier to find players late in the first or second round that can do one thing well. Much harder to find a player that can pass, shoot, defend, anticipate, play various positions and have a high bball iq all those things at a competent level. Draymond is the outlier obviously. McCaw has come the closest and full credit to Myers for identifying his abilities but there are reasons why multi skill players such as Iguodala, Livingston, Rush, Curry, Thompson, KD, West, Bogut were drafted at the top half of the draft. Much much much harder to find and/or develop those types of players when you are consistently drafting in the back half of the draft.
Regardless of if Mannion is good or not, the reason he hasn't even been considered for playing time so far is due to Draymond's injury making JTA a key rotation player, and the limits for how much two-way contracts If JTA plays 50 games, Mannion can only play 30. Given that he might need to play if Curry gets injured, it doesn't make sense to use any of his eligibility this early in the season.
From what I can tell, Joe has only played in garbage time so far? Mannion definitely would have played in garbage time in those first two games if he had a roster spot imo. Also, Joe is 21 and Mannion is 19, so Joe should be more NBA ready right now.
Don't know anything about Joe though.
My argument admittedly came across as Joe getting minutes so therefore Joe would have gotten minutes here. That was not my intent. I used both as an example because a). Those are the two players that surprisingly I saw play quite a bit in college. I saw Mannion do nothing well.. nothing that I feel would translate directly to the NBA even in 2-3 years. Joe on the other hand I saw shooting that I felt translated well to the NBA level even if he would have followed the same D League trajectory as Mannion.
Word. I can't comment on Joe versus Mannion, didn't really watch either. As far as "lower upside" shooters though, they did draft Jessup.
I never watched Jessup so I can't comment but yes just based on highlights we got someone that seems to shoot the lights out. That's all I can ask for.
Also, while I don't know if I believe in the Warrior FO post-Schlenk/West, I'm intrigued by Santa Cruz GM Ryan Atkinson's ability to scout.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/How-Santa-Cruz-Warriors-Ryan-Atkinson-helped-15623301.php
Sounds like he was involved in finding JTA and recommending Mulder to the Warriors. It also sounds like he may have had a role in finding Ryan Taylor, who I'm intrigued about as a bench shooter for the Warriors (if no one else signs him).
Also also (I wish there was an edit button), while I don't know about the Warrior FO, I do still give Kerr the benefit of the doubt. And he was unusually involved in this past draft due to the long layoff. If he was involved in selecting Mannion, I'm going to wait and see. Maybe he sees a hitch in Mannion's shot or something (it sounds like the Warriors identified a hitch in Wiseman's shot where he put his guide hand over the ball when he was shooting, and I highly doubt it was Kirk Lacob who noticed it so I'll assume it was Kerr or Adams or another coach).
I also think it's kind of ridiculous that you will discount Paschall as a player, saying you haven't seen him enough to make an evaluation even after he played most of a season last year, and are comfortable making any kind of declarative statement about Joe after what, 5 games?
Apples to Oranges dear sir/ma'am I've been very consistent on these threads that I feel all Three 2019 picks are not going to amount to much when evaluated in a couple of years from now. BUT I've also said it's unfair to judge these picks so soon when making an individual evaluation of the FO. No pick is Jacob Evans not even Smiley. That was an easy call for me as much as I got blasted at the time.
I've also been consistent in saying that having seen both players in college, I would have preferred the Warriors drafted Isaiah Joe. The possibilities of both being out of the league in 2-3 years is pretty high.
So my comparison/evaluation has never been about Paschall vs Joe.
I've watched some of Isaiah Joe's play for the 6ers so far and have seen nothing yet to suggest he will stick in this league as a rotational player, neither in his play itself or his level of opposition. Certainly nothing to validate crapping on the Mannion pick.
But again I'm not basing it on current play hence why I even corrected some of my own terminology that my argument has always been based on what I saw in college. Simply put, I feel Mannion has no translatable skills. Isaiah Joe has one: shooting.
We have yet to see if that is a skill that will actually translate. If you won't make a declarative statement on Paschal's play after a season, saying Joe has nba-translable skills after 5 games is way premature.
Anybody watching Lonzo Ball in HS and even overseas has said "Wow this kid can pass" hence people feeling that that skill would translate to the NBA. Is it too soon to say it did. I'd argue yes. Most people would say it's already there. Same concept. I'm NOT basing his play on preseason or last 5 games. I've done been telling you that when I saw Joe in college I saw. Really pretty quick release shot that could easily translate to the NBA. Iwhether it does or not is simply a question of letting his play speak for itself.
*the limits for how much two-way contracts can play. If...
Why would you get so upset about a back-of-the-draft pick? I legit don't understand. The odds are so stacked against them amounting to anything. Mannion actually seems pretty skilled. If his shot comes around (BIG IF, I know) then he could be a serviceable PG backup at some point, I think.
Figuratively speaking my friend. I have a really nice tv. But why was I upset? Because look at the narrative throughout the preseason and start of the regular season: we need shooting. It's why the fan base myself included have been clamoring for Mulder and Lee to get playing time. Both undrafted. What did Isaiah Joe do much better than Mannion in college? Shoot the rock. What have we been clamoring for so long lately? Kerr needs to play the shooters to open up some space for Curry and Wiggins.
IIRC, we needed a future backup PG, and we did not have Wanamaker when we took Mannion. Poole still has a lot to prove at PG, even if we did pick up his option. I had not seen much of Mannion before we drafted him, just highlights and clips, and I wasn't excited. But in the preseason games, I liked his handles, confidence, and passing, and for a rookie with no summer league and a short training camp, he seemed to have a good idea of what he was doing. For a 2nd rounder, fair enough. I'm not jumping up and down with glee but it's way too soon to judge that pick.
And that's fair. I can respect that. I spent most of that 2nd round hoping another team would draft Mannion and as time got closer to our pick I was "Anybody but Mannion" and as our turn neared and I saw Isaiah Joe (who I saw in a couple of games on tv just shooting the crap out of that ball) I was like Please Please Please him but if not him not Mannion so yeah I was frustrated.
I watched all but two of U of A games last year. In my opinion, Mannion does not have the high upside that I want the FO to take a gamble on nor does he have the necessary floor. I'm a Dubs fan first though and if he hits then I'll gladly say I'm wrong. Right now I think it's another wasted pick. I thought Wiseman was gonna be unplayable for most of the year. I am happily wrong on that
Besides, in the interests of diversity we should have a redhead once in awhile. You can instantly spot him on the court anytime, even without a really nice TV! 😉
Currently the team is 2-2. The only reason we "needed" shooting was because right before the draft Klay went down. I trust this FO to have a proactive plan better than the reactionary fanbase, myself included. I hear you, and appreciate your concerns. Just speaking my piece.
If only the Warriors could have approached Morey’s success.
I used Morey as an example of a singular skill he's identified to form players around his core. Let's not act like the Rockets have been dog crap all these years. The Warriors just happened to be better.
"just happened to be," or have a lot of actual real reasons for being better consistently?
If you want to measure strict playoff success as the only factor in what makes a good GM be my guest. I personally would take Morey or Ujiri on this team over Bob and they have much less playoff success than the Dubs. But what I've never ever said is that Myers was a bad GM. I've said for the longest of time that there are a few GMs better than him when it comes to identifying late round talent and/or fit based on what the Warriors look for in those players.
Was this Morey's doing?
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26634745/rockets-audited-18-game-7-say-finals-bid-taken
Most likely.. and all the whining all those years. What's ur point though? ;)
Indeed, all those playoff series we lost to Morey's Rockets teams... oh wait a minute! 😂
Bah, Paschall listed as questionable with a knee thing
Is "Bah, Paschall" the Ebdubezer Scroogedub version of "Bah, Humbug"?
Lmao, it was dialed back from "ugh" because it doesn't seem like that big of a deal. Just a wild string of injuries with this team though- not ideal
I'm not sure I care as long as Dray plays.
We need Paschall too, especially with Chriss out but even if we had Chriss.
He’s depth, but as our 4th string center behind Wiseman, Looney and Green....and our 3rd string PF behind Green, JTA and Wiggins, “need” might be too strong a term.
Green can't be playing center like that anymore. He might be high on the depth chart come playoff time, but Paschall needs to be above him otherwise imo.
When we talk about wings and PFs and even small-ball Cs nowadays, it's a little misleading because the positions are not so neatly categorized as they once were. Wiggins can play the 4 but he's really a wing - loosely defined. Paschall is a wide body, and he has more offensive upside than Juan, but his D needs to improve. If that happens, Paschall will be the 2nd string PF. Dray is a great small-ball C but he takes too much of a pounding there, so I hope Kerr can avoid doing that. Paschall is young, let him take the pounding when Wiseman and Looney sit.
I understand positions have evolved, but he’s currently behind too many other frontcourt players to be considered someone we “need” today.
It's a matter of opinion, I guess. JTA's a better passer and defender but Paschall is by far the better scorer. Paschall was 4th in scoring in the Detroit game, 10 pts in 13:29, twice what JTA got in almost 24 minutes, but got more assists. Paschall was 3rd in scoring against the Bulls, 15 in 19:07, 3x what JTA scored in about the same time. Paschall needs to develop a better all-around game but I think we need those points. Your mileage may differ.
If he’s “questionable”, hopefully he suits up, loosens up and is available, but I could see trying to rest him.
Glad to Draymond back. Hoping for no recurring Covid issues. Excited to see more Wiseman and improved play from Oubre. Happy New Years Ladies and Gents!
Happy new year to u as well
Wiseman wont have to cover as much ground w Dray and Oubre bodying up and terrorizing the ball handlers in front of him...it cannot be overstated just how much Dray means to this team.
Also, being the best passer on the team (yes even over steph) he will find and direct JW under the rim early and often
I love watching Draymond, by far my favorite Warrior of the last many years... however I care more about the W's winning than just having him back.
long term, having Dray back helps with winning - I'm just saying that it's fine (to me) if his return doesn't immediately result in a win tonight.
Agree, and great to be able watch him play long term and hopefully for a long time with the Warriors!
Dame vs Steph will be fun. I think Dame gets extra inspiration when he plays us, even if we're not in Oakland now. I think they're better than we are right now without Dray but if he's really ready to play, we have a good shot at splitting the two games. Hey, we can dream of taking both! But Duby, you wrote "hopeful squads in New Jersey and Milwaukee"... is Brooklyn in New Jersey nowadays? 😉
damnit! I've been making this mistake for years...
Revised in the article, thanks lol.
That's ok. I still think the Astros are in the National League.
You mean the Houston Colt 45s? 😉
Just say you were referring to their new uniforms. 😁
There is a good reason 538's newish (summer 2019) defense metric is called "DRAYMOND" (Defensive Rating Accounting for Yielding Minimal Openness by Nearest Defender) [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-better-way-to-evaluate-nba-defense/]. As the rating shows, Dray minimizes openness. So pumped to have him back!
I love 538 for political models, but their player projection stuff has been pretty borked for years. This looks like more of a "look back" rather than "look ahead" tool though, and I love the basic premise behind it:
> ...it does get at one essential discovery we made in playing around with the opponents’ shooting data: the idea of minimizing openness. The main goal of shooting defense, especially in today’s spacing-centric, ball-movement-forward offensive era, is really to minimize the chance of an open shot.
I don't disagree with the final list they came up with, but you can see a pretty clear model bias towards bigs that tend to switch and recover a lot. It's cool to see Dray at the top of their model results, but I'd honestly prefer to just use simple defense numbers without all those adjustments 538 seems to be doing.
Do you think Wiseman could eventually do well by this metric? I'm not sure how bad his lateral movement will be limited in the long run- I guess we'll see how the original Draymond can coach him up in this regard.
Speaking of the draft, I was listening to Sam Vecenies latest podcast on the 2021 nba draft and also was reading a couple of other pundits on it and it seems that the draft is not the end all be all all time draft in terms of top end talent. Yes it's still shaping up to be a solid draft but due to obvious Covid limitations there exists the same uncertainty that befell the 2020 nba draft and some people are starting to shy away from labeling the top prospects bonafide superstars. I bring that up because If there is a trade to be had, I wonder how lucrative that 2021 Minny pick will now be looking. If anything, Wiseman has boosted up the trade value of his draft slot BUT can't imagine any player made available outside of Giannis' that they would trade Wiseman for at this point.
I mean, the pick is top three protected, so even if the top prospects looked like superstars, it wouldn’t affect the value of the pick that much.
It’s hard to say much about the draft this far out, other than that Cunningham and Mobley both look pretty studly, and that there are a whole lot of Jalens...
In any case, I doubt the value of the Minny pick has changed substantially since the college season started, if that’s what you’re stressing about these days, lol.
I know that I'm crying over spilt milk, but Gary Trent apparently has developed a Beast Mode. Before that draft, some prognosticators had him going to the Warriors and he was available but we picked...give me a minute, I'm thinking...
Go through the archives on this site and find the series that was done on the Warriors recent drafts. It puts some real analysis on the picks (and missed picks) of the last few years).
I'd also ask that you take a look at the history of whichever team has landed that young stud. Portland has a pretty long list of misses / expected returns from late in the draft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland_Trail_Blazers_draft_history
Here is the article I wrote about GTJ: https://www.letsgowarriors.com/p/did-the-warriors-ruin-the-dynasty-53f
Oh that was a great read. Not sure how I missed that article...
The problem with this FO is that they've been trying to find the next Iguodala and Livingston in the draft for the last few years instead of choosing the best available talent or players that do one or two things really really well (like shooting or getting to the basket).
The problem with the FO obviously is that Iguodala and Livingston were lottery picks. Very hard to duplicate their Jack of All Trades skill set with players late in the first or second round (but they try and try because they hit paydirt with Draymond once). However, if James Wiseman (who I wasn't as high on) becomes a bonafide superstar, all will be forgiven.
One nitpick: Livingston was a shell of the “lottery pick” he once was when he signed with us. He likely never would’ve been a Warrior in circumstances without his injury. (I’d argue the same thing about Bogut; no one would trade him for Ellis if his arm hadn’t been wrecked.)
If course. But he still had all the attributes that made him a high lottery pick. The injury just robbed him of pure athletic ability. One decent example at the extreme end is Brandon Rush. Also a Lottery pick, But for Rush that injury wasn't as much career altering as it was career ending. It could be argued though that had Rush been healthy, we could have made it to the Finals in 2013. Instead we had Jefferson airballing free throws.
Sorry I digress, my point is that outside of a once in a lifetime hit in Draymond, we've been trying to duplicate what Iguodala and Livingston bring to the table and I think there's an obvious reasons why players like them and Rush were lottery picks. McCaw has come the closest but you can still see his very obvious limitations (when not injured).
“But he still had all the attributes that made him a high lottery pick. The injury just robbed him of pure athletic ability.”
So you’re saying that his pure athletic ability was not an attribute that made him a lottery pick? I can’t disagree more strongly. If he’d blown out his knee, rehabbed, then entered the draft, he wouldn’t have been a lottery pick.
Its very hard to to hit on picks at the end of the 1st and 2nd round. Its the equivalent of 5th 6th and 7th round picks for the NFL... very low % chances
Bob Myers landed Dray Looney and Paschall...thats actually a really good track record of late picks in the grand scheme of things.
If u expect to get a solid or great player everytime, then ur dreaming.
I would hold off on Eric Paschalls evaluation (and on the flip side Poole even though I don't think he belongs in the NBA) Right now Paschal's playability has been reduced to a 3rd string small ball Center due to injuries. Any other role he's looked horrid.
That leaves 2 players drafted since 2012 that you can consider solid. Obviously Draymond may count for 3-4 hits alone lol and Looney is a solid rotation player but you're still talking a below average track record of drafting in the back half of the draft.
I wouldnt hold off w Paschall...at all. Hes been a solid contributor off of the bench...thats what u call easily out performing ur draft status being a 2nd rounder...which is basically almost falling out of the draft entirely.
U need to "hold off" on ur expectations on draft picks. No team picking where we've been hits on 50% of their picks in any sport
Also, when considering Draymond being a borderline HOF'er, its hard to ask for more than that from ur GM. Dray has been the best or one of the best 2nd round picks in NBA history
If you want this discussion to be meaningful, compare the back half picks of other teams. Also, Paschall contributes meaningful minutes. You can't just write that off.
No I'm not including Paschall because anytime I've brought up Smailigic or Evans in the past I've been asked to give it time to evaluate. I can revisit this conversation next year once Poole and Paschall and Smailigic have another full season under their belts. I'll try to find the hit rate for the other 29 teams. I did this once before on GSOM but I haven't logged on in forever so this may take awhile.
Saying all that, since 2012, IF you simply assign a positive value to each 'hit' and 1 negative value to each miss, the Warriors have had 3 hits:
Draymond
Looney
Patrick McCaw (currently injured but a solid rotation player for the Raptors)
6 Misses:
Festus Ezeli
Ogjen Kuzmic
Nemanja Nedovic
Damian Jones
Jordan Bell
Jacob Evans
For comparison I pulled Masai Ujiri when he was hired in 2013 in the back half of the draft
Hits:
Delon Wright
Pascal Siakam
OG Anunoby
Misses:
Bruno Cabocll
Deandre Daniels
Xavier Thames
That's about a 50 percent hit rate. Yes admittedly the higher you go in the draft the better your chances of hitting and Toronto has drafted ahead of the Warriors last few years. But that's the basis that I had for comparing the other 29 teams. Toronto was somewhere top 10. Warriors when lumped against the other 29 teams have been below average. They are not the worst 'botton half of the drsft' drafting team but theybstil sit below average which is what I have always maintained. Their hit rate is below average and I'm willing to bet YOU a dining gift card that when we include the 2019 draft (especially seeing who got drafted immediately after Poole and giving up assets to move up to Smailigic) that it will be more of the same.
Yes, TOR picked much higher than us in the Bob Myers era...thus my comparison to picking late in the NFL draft.
So, in the NBA, that means picking in the middle of the 1st vs the end of the 1st is the NFL equivalent of picking in the 1st round vs the 5th 6th or 7th round in the NFL...so of course its much more likely u hit if ur TOR.
Didn’t Apricot spend several articles analyzing Warriors’ picks, look at who else was available and conclude that the Warriors draft history is not the train wreck people have arguing like this?
Context matters:
Wright, Siakam and Anunoby were all first round, with Wright as #20 which is certainly not back half of draft (Siakam and Anunoby were 23 and 27).
Looney was 30th pick of 1st round, and Draymond and McCaw were both 2nd round picks.
Stellar response. It's easy to forget that the NBA has only 2 rounds, which translate as you said.
Yeah 20 min. Probably 1st 6 min of 1st and 3rd Quarter and last 4 min of 2nd and 4th.
Han/Chewbacca
Then Steph is Luke Skywalker, Jedi knight! I like it.
Kleia?
I can't wait for the photoshop gurus for this one... :D
Is it weird that I can totally picture Klay with the buns?
I can too and it looks pretty good.
*when
What excites me is that Wiseman is showing he can really shoot, he learns fast, and he will gain confidence while learning from Dray and Steph and the coaches. IIRC, in the Piston game at one point Wiseman left his feet on an upfake, Dray took him aside and talked to him, and after that Wiseman stayed on the ground and used his reach instead of going for those fakes. The kid listens and responds. He seems very coachable, and that's going to help him reach his potential. He, Dray, and Steph will be a problem for the league but next season when Klay comes back, that REALLY will be a problem for the league.
That first lob is going to break people.
Also, memories: https://www.knbr.com/2017/06/26/dray-to-curry-to-kd-wins-assist-of-the-year/