Mock Draft Review 1. Moses Moody and Jared Butler. & Open Thread

Time to get to know the possible Warriors draft picks

This is a series of reviews of published mock drafts. Why do this now, when we don’t even know which pick numbers the Warriors will have?

1. It’s fun.

2. We are not looking for a precise prediction of draft order. This is a good chance to see the range of players that draft experts think GSW should be drafting outside of the Top 5.

3. There is an overwhelmingly vast chance that the Warriors will have at least one pick at #6 or below.¹ There is near complete consensus on who the Top 5 should be (Cade, Mobley, Suggs, Green, Kuminga) and zero consensus on who the #6 pick should be.

Now you might think the Warriors are going to trade the picks to get immediate help for next season. I kind of think this too. However, it’s impossible to evaluate a trade and its opportunity cost without looking at what the draft picks might net you.

So without further ado, this mock draft is from Kyle Boone of CBS Sports on May 19.

#6. Moses Moody

Moses Moody SG, ARKANSAS • FR • 6'6" / 205 LBS

Kyle Boone: With Stephen Curry still playing at an MVP level and Klay Thompson set to return next season, the Warriors would do well to add a high-level role player who can maximize this roster. Moody fits the mold. He's a 3-and-D talent who shot 35.8% from 3-point range on high volume (162 attempts) and who would give the Warriors' current backcourt a real boost with his shooting and ability to make an impact off the ball.

Profile from Sports-Reference.com

Wizzy’s Comps. 

• Per 40. Malik Beasley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cameron Thomas, Josh Okogie, Bradley Beal, Terrence Shannon Jr., Bryant Stith, Harold Miner, Andrew Wiggins

• Advanced. James Young, Kevon Looney, Aaron Gordon, Jerami Grant, Keldon Johnson, Kevin Knox, Malik Beasley, Kelly Oubre, Trey Lyles

NBA Draft Room Comp: Allan Houston

Jeremy Woo, SI. While a bad run in the NCAA tournament shouldn’t impact Moody unfairly, it did bring to light some of the primary concerns scouts have held surrounding his athletic toolbox and overall readiness for the NBA. Granted, he’s 18, so some of this is to be expected, but Moody’s efficiency can vary wildly from game to game as a player who’s heavily reliant on shooting jumpers to be effective. He has a good frame and looks the part, but he lacks the explosiveness and struggles to finish regularly in traffic. There’s appealing upside here and Moody had a solid freshman year on the whole. But his range looks more likely to be late-lottery and onward than top 10 at this point.

Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: The excitement surrounding Moody has dampened a bit following an inefficient NCAA Tournament, but I think some people are overthinking it. Moody is a terrific 3-and-D wing option with real size at 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan. He is switchable on defense, with really good feet and a tough mindset. Offensively, he hits shots with a smooth stroke off the catch. He took a ton of contested shots this season as Arkansas’ go-to guy, which led to some of his inefficiencies. But he also showcased some difficult shotmaking ability, too, off the move. The big things to work on here are his passing ability and finishing — and he’s not a wild athlete by any stretch. But it’s tough to find teenagers who are this good at shooting and defending with a platform to improve his other aspects as well.

Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer: SHADES OF Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Morris Peterson

Safe bet to be a productive player for years. His ceiling, however, is unknown.

• Perimeter Shooting

• On-Ball Defense

• Hustle

• Rebounding

PLUSES

• Excellent physical dimensions. Uses his strong frame and long arms to alter shots as a help defender near the rim or harass opponents man-to-man on the perimeter.

• Good stationary shooter, but needs to speed up his release on 3s off screens and handoffs.

• Unselfish player who excelled in an off-ball role. Does a good job of reading the floor off the dribble to make simple passes using either hand. Has intriguing potential as a screener who can thrive on the short roll.

• Capable of pulling up from midrange after one or two dribbles.

• Anticipatory rebounder with a nose for the ball, especially on offense.

• Versatile on-ball defender who invites contact from larger players and has the agility to contain smaller, quicker perimeter scorers.

• Intelligent off-ball defender who always seems to be in the right position.

MINUSES

• Struggled to generate open shots against better defenders. Doesn’t project as a primary scorer unless his handle dramatically improves, and lacks the fluidity of players who develop that skill.

• Lacks a floater.

• Draws a lot of fouls but doesn’t finish well inside. A below-the-rim finisher. Needs to add more touch on finishes.

• Lives in the midrange off the dribble. Needs to extend his range to 3 to hit more one-dribble side-step shots like high-level role players can.

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#17 Jared Butler

(We’ll have to forgive the wacky pick number.)

Jared Butler PG, BAYLOR • JR • 6'3" / 195 LBS

Kyle Boone: Butler averaged a career-high 4.8 assists and made 41.7% of his 3s last season for Baylor, proving his worth both as a combo creator and as a scorer. He would fit with the Warriors in a similar role either as an off-ball threat with Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to give them *another* high-level scoring threat or as a second-unit creator and scorer. He was a 98th percentile spot-up shooter last season with a team-leading 28.0% assist rate, ahead of teammate Davion Mitchell, so his versatility will help him make an impact.

Profile from Sports-Reference.com

Wizzy’s Comps

• Per 40: Chris Whitney, Gilbert Arenas, William Avery, D’Angelo Russell, Jay Williams, Andy Rautins, O.J. Mayo, Raymond Felton, Cameron Payne. 

• Advanced: Davion Mitchell, D’Angelo Russell, Shane Larkin, Payton Pritchard, NahShon Hyland, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Michael Gbinije, Reggie Jackson, Tyrese Haliburton 

NBA Draft Room Comp: George Hill

Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: Butler was as decorated a college player as you’ll find this past season, a first-team All-American who has worked his way into a genuine draft prospect over the last two years. He’s a 6-3 scoring guard who can knock down shots from the outside both directly off the catch and off the pull-up. He averaged nearly 17 points per game while shooting almost 42 percent from 3 and taking tough shots too. Plus, he was All-Defense in the Big 12 and generally does a good job of playing within scheme and locking down opposing players.

Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer: SHADES OF Goran Dragic, Avery Bradley with a handle

Microwave scoring guard who has improved as a playmaker during his three years in college.

• Ballhandling

• Perimeter Shooting

• On-Ball Defense

PLUSES

• Shifty ball handler who moves quickly side-to-side, and uses deception to generate space.

• Good scorer off the dribble; he’s most potent in the pick-and-roll, as he can pull up for deep 3s or split screens and get to the rim, where he can finish with either hand.

• Versatile spot-up shooting threat who relocates like a veteran around the perimeter and has excellent footwork coming off screens.

• Creative passer. He displays the necessary vision and skills that could help him make the jump from secondary playmaker to primary.

• High-effort on-ball defender and instinctive team defender who jumps passing lanes for deflections and rotates to protect the rim.

MINUSES

• Below-the-rim finisher. He doesn’t shy from contact, which is encouraging, but doesn’t finish well or draw many fouls either.

• He’s a risk-taker who occasionally tries to make a difficult pass when he should make a safe one, and he doesn’t always put enough velocity on the ball.

• Undersized, which limits his upside on the defensive end.

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Brief Thoughts

If GSW keeps the picks, I think this is a great outcome. Two guys who can shoot it off-ball at a high clip. Moody is a 3 and D type who had a disappointing NCAA tournament, but otherwise looks really promising. Butler is a bit undersized, but gives great effort defensively and had a good NCAA Tournament (can’t argue with the results!).

1. The exact odds of GSW getting MIN #4 and winning the lottery with their own pick is 9.62% times 2.41% = 0.23%, or about the odds that Steph Curry misses three straight free throws.