34 Comments

Unless the pick (person) they want is available, they will trade down. Additional costs of early picks is not worth it for a player they have uncertainty about. They believe (without evidence) that they can pick later and develop a player.

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I hope the Warriors will end up picking Obi Toppin. He has such a well-rounded offensive game and looked the most NBA-ready of all the prospects. He is described as having the highest floor. He should start contributing on his 1st year. He is a little under the radar, which is a good thing. 6'9" 220lbs PF that shoots 69.8% from 2pt range, 39% from deep, and 70.2% from FT. Has good handles, can create his own shot, and a willful passer. On a team like GSW, he's going to be that 5th member of a death lineup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbFyQBtLkVc

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Apr 30, 2020Liked by punk basketball

I’m not a fan of drafting now for later. Arguably, the core of the best team basketball has ever seen is in their prime and Warrior pride will forever be linked to maximizing now. Moreover, burnishing the organization’s reputation now does help the future. We had decades of being at the bottom of draft destination desirability. Our banners represent the new status. Curry will be with the dubs long after retirement. Helping him stay on top While he is still balling is just smart.

Speaking of Smart, I like him a lot in these discussions.

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Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Paschall, Green

Smart, Chriss

Poole, Lee, Looney

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Robinson?

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author

yeah, I for sure want GR3 back if the team can swing it!!

I'd love Marcus Smart, but it's really going to depend on what the TPE can actually snag for us without costing us significant other assets.

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You are right, of course. It would take a little luck. But if the Celtics re-sign Hayward or go after Giannis, they might not be able to re-sign Smart and stay under the cap. They could be motivated by one or two of our draft picks packaged with anyone not Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Paschall, Green or Chriss.

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I've learned over the years to never get too assured about anything. Ok, maybe I'm still learning that all the time, but STILL - if Wiggins can work out here (and it looks like he probably can), then who are we to say what the Warriors can't do?

Bob Myers and the FO has earned so much faith from me, I'm for sure not ruling out Smart (even if it ends up taking more than the TPE room and a sweet draft pick).

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Perhaps if it came down to choosing a high profile guard to bring on board, why not go for Anthony Edwards and save the TPE for someone else. I don't see Smart worth a top pick & the TPE. Warriors need help in a few areas.

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Apr 30, 2020Liked by punk basketball

We can all hear the tension in our replies to what the Warriors should do. It's a big question. I think judging from the past behavior of the team, we will see some kind of trade for a vet, a proven player hopefully at a position of need to strengthen and add to the core. It's hard for me to envision them taking a rookie like Wiseman, but he is tempting. So, I think this is the first thing they look for. If they can identify a player or players that meet their criteria, and all parties were amenable to a deal, that would probably be the best thing they could do. I don't know who, though.

This draft will undoubtedly have some breakouts, but who they are is really in question through most of the league. No one agrees on anyone as a sure thing judging by the mock drafts. Maybe we can pull off a trade using the draft pick, Draymond, and the TPE for KD. We make KD our center, Chriss PF, Wiggins SF. How's that for a starting 5?! How many vets will be ready to sign for the minimum to play on this powerhouse? I can dream, can't I?

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I enjoyed watching Durant play, but those days are done. He's finished with this franchise, and they should be finished with him. Time to move along.

If we ever trade Draymond (and I'm saying we should), it should be for someone who actually WANTS to be on the team. Someone very, very good.

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My suggestion was more tongue in cheek than anything else. I'm under no illusion that this scenario will ever come to pass. It was just fun to imagine it.

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author

I just LOL'd at the entire concept of coming back a year later and trading Draymond for KD. It would be objectively hilarious, but sadly, extremely unlikely

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May 1, 2020Liked by punk basketball

would be the first ever trade for a pre-disgruntled star

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I think they should trade down and use the TPE to bring in a 22-26 year old who is a solid player but has upside that has not developed as of yet (Aaron Gordon is my favorite) and draft a player who is as little a gamble as possible.

The other thing is that the draft boards have the players all over the place. I really like Saddiq Bey but I have seen him ranked as high as 6th to as low as 40th. A trade down for a player like him would be a solid move in my opinion.

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Apr 30, 2020Liked by punk basketball

I think it comes down to what a team is willing to trade for the pick. If there's anyway to trade it for someone who can be a better than replacement level contributor, I say do it. As we all know, the core has a prime window of a few years. We should be trying to be as good as we can be in that window. I'm not trying to mortgage the whole future, but there's no point in drafting a super young guy who won't be good inside the window.

Any idea what team's might give up for this year's top-5 first rounder?

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I'll be happy if there is a 2020-21 season.

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Did we trade for Giannis yet?

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author

Yes, but then we flipped him for Wiggins

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Curious, what's the situation with the Wolves pick we have?

We talk about packaging our pick this year for a trade, can we package the Wolves pick next year?

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author

you can't trade picks in consecutive years, I believe; so the team could do one or the other, but not both.

Now, I don't actually know what happens if you swap picks. Like, if we trade down this one, can we still trade next year's pick as well?

Looks like the answer is yes, as long as the team gets a pick in the first round, it doesn't preclude trading your first rounder in consecutive seasons.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2017/09/trade-restrictions-on-future-draft-picks-by-team.html

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Ah, ok.

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Who would you use for salary on the Dubs side? Right now some players that would fit into the trade exception include LaVert, Dwight Powell, Dillon Brooks, Sabonis, Smart, Lonzo, Dre...

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For a trade or for the TPE?

I think regardless of who the Warriors draft or do with the draft, the Warriors are in dire need of quality wings.

We're probably talking old guys with the TPE though, so like Gay, Iguodala, Ariza or whoever.

Covginton or Oubre would be nice, but I don't see their teams dumping them for cash. Though I guess the Rockets' owner could get cheap again.

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Covington would be a sweet addition to the team.

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Bradley Beal tends to crop up in discussions, though doesn't help resolve the Warriors defensive woes.

I've personally like Myles Turner on the Warriors, though he's juuuust out of TPE range, so like the Aaron Gordon rumours, the Warriors would have to get creative.

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On the trade front, taking Wiggins off the table as an asset far more valuable to the Dubs than any other team (Probably a negative asset for most of the league) would this year’s first rounder plus the trade exception be able to net a better player than they could draft? Could they get a player and a pick for next year; allowing them to use the exception and maintain draft capital without paying for both salaries this coming year?

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Apr 29, 2020Liked by punk basketball

I get terrified every time I read an article about the Warriors in this draft. I sincerely hope the Warriors are smarter than the Suns and don’t waste a top pick on a center. You can get way better centers cheap on the FA market (see Milwaukee Lopez) than you can draft. I hope if they get the number one pick that they are able to trade back. Picking at number 5 would be better in this draft based on salary alone.

In terms of the trade exception, I hope they use it; this is no time to go all Tillman in regards to spending. And I hope they use it on a Heat SF that can help train Wiggins and their draft pick in the Warriors system.

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author

This was a pretty daunting article to write because of all the uncertainty. We don't even know where in the top 5 the team is drafting yet. That said, I agree about Wiseman - intriguing player for sure, but I'm not sure taking a skinny young center because of upside is a smart move at this point

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Great way to phrase that last sentence! I remember when TMac was a skinny young prospect with tons of upside. He was eventually great; but not for the team that drafted him. Let the bottom feeders of the NBA draft for unproven upside. It’s how they stay at the bottom while the better teams pluck those prospects on their second and third contracts once they have matured.

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and this to me, is why the philosophy behind the pick is going to be almost more interesting than whatever player they end up choosing.

Another factor that I thought about but didn't put into the article is if the experience with Jacob Evans and the folly of trying to predict an NBA-ready player out of the draft cooled the Warriors on going for a safer pick.

There's just no guarantee that whoever the team thinks is the most NBA ready will even be remotely close to that. ... Which would be another strong argument in favor of either throwing the dice on your best prospect, or working hard to find a trade

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Truth!

I think there’s a big difference in trying to find an NBA ready player in the top 5 vs outside the lottery. I’d hate to see the Warriors swing too far on the pendulum because they’ve whiffed hard at the back of the first round lately. Guys who are legendary in college are often useful to winning teams in the pros. Durant was a monster in the Big-12 as a freshman. Curry is an NCAA legend. Mano, Duncan, Robinson, Trae Young, Zion, JaMorant, Luca, Wade, even watching Mike Bibby in college it was obvious he’d make it in the nba. Guys who pop at the NCAA/international tournament level generally make good pros. Wiseman is more like one of those HS players from the Kobe/Garnett/TMac era who took years to develop. Without the NCAA tournament this year, are there any players who looked like they were a level above the college game in the time they had this year or last?

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I almost wrote all the odds out, but no, the team has a 50% shot at landing pick #5, and then 12-15% or so for 1-4.

The actual numbers:

#1 - 14%

#2 - 13.4%

#3 - 12.7%

#4 - 12.0 %

#5 - 47.9%

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Guaranteed top 5 pick as the season stands.

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