I both love and hate this pick. Loved because I genuinely think we have a good crop of Centers coming back and prior to Klay going down, I thought that we could afford to sit Wiseman these next two years and allow him to grow organically into this role (since I safely assumed Wiseman was gonna be the pick but for a brief moment that LGW fooled us with a supposed Chicago trade)
Hate because the expectations being heaped on Wiseman THIS YEAR are absolutely nonsensical. It reminds me of Jacob Evans (but the flip side). We bypassed other potentially more impactful players because Evans was supposed to have contributed immediately. This is the opposite: many people expect Wiseman to contribute off the bat when the man played 69 total minutes and used much of the Pandemic time to transform his body (not necessarily his game). Not saying that's a bad thing but again impossible to duplicate even a semblance of experience with lack of college bball and lack of any type of competition over the last year
Im not as high on Wiseman but giving the pundits the benefit of the doubt, IF Wiseman ceiling is as high as many people believe, I'm afraid it won't be reached until the very tail end of the Curry/Klay Prime years (which may still translate to another championship).
> even Kevin Garnett took three years before even one person would vote for him as DPOY
This is going to be interesting to watch develop here. As calm as we all want to be, there's going to be a lot of pressure to win, and if Wiseman's development arc conflicts with that, it could get real bumpy real quick. But like Eric says in the article, I think the Warriors culture is just about an ideal spot to land for this kid.
About the only thing we know about Wiseman is that he was rated the #1 prospect coming out of high school. The comp or info I would like to see is how accurate that rating has been historically? E.G., is that rating generally accurate or generally BS?
Nov 30, 2020Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball
Eric: so glad that we are back to basketball so you can get back to your fab analytic writing. Am looking forward to EOP almost as much as the games. Curious to see what you'll have for us.
Fantastic article. Definitely needs to be reiterated to Warrior fans that 19 year old rookies don't often play winning basketball even if they become winning players eventually. I agree with comparing him to high school guys, although I suppose he's already a year older. Less mileage on him though, I guess, so maybe it evens out?
"Given the GSW situation where Wiseman can concentrate on defense and rebounding while playing a limited JaVale McGee type role in the offense, I am hopeful that he will be an above-average defender if he can stay healthy."
One thing I wonder about with Wiseman though is whether he's interested in concentrating on defense and rebounding while playing a limited role in the offense. He's compared his game to guys like Giannis, Bosh, and Garnett. He's said he plays PF or C, which I interpret as him saying Cs aren't generally seen as primary ballhandlers/scoring options and he sees that in his future. He was the #1 recruit out of high school and the #2 pick in the draft and has never been "humbled" into accepting that there are certain things he wants to do that he shouldn't do like Chriss (who now says he was "naive" in Phoenix and that he realizes the skill set he has is better for center).
I hope he is as coachable as the Warriors think he is, because they need to convince him to master the center position first and perhaps may eventually need to convince him that his destiny in the league is to be a three point shooting DeAndre Jordan. Theoretically a very good player, but that's also because Jordan understood his role didn't include taking his defender off the dribble or shooting a turnaround fadeaway midrange with 20 seconds left on the shot clock.
Then again, maybe Wiseman really is good enough to be a primary ballhandler and scoring option in addition to handling all of the traditional center duties. If that's the case, he'll be a top 5 player in the league one day, and the Warriors will be sitting pretty for awhile.
As long as we are doing Comps. Can we get a comp for the Warriors as a competitive team drafting high?
I have three:
80’s Boston: Len Bias dies after the draft ending the championship run as Bird’s back ages fast.
2000’s Pistons: Championship team gets second pick and takes Darko #2 over #3 Melo (and Wade.) Darko fights depression, rides the end of the bench, and the team fades leading to 20 years of mediocrity.
90’s Spurs a consistent 50 win team has an injury to their MVP gets the top pick and adds Duncan (rookie double/double machine) to their DPOY Robinson to make a dominant front court that wins a shortened season championship and leads to 20 years of playoff runs and championships.
Excellent analysis (as usual) Apricot! The comparisons are so difficult because there are so many variables.
For example, when comparing him to high school players, does Wiseman get any advantage from at least participating in a college program, which perhaps builds a bit of maturity and more business-like approach to the game? What about all that time he had to work with specialists on his conditioning and agility?
And where exactly do his natural and developed talents lie in these comparisons. His size is pretty freakish; 15 pounds heavier than Robinson and substantially bigger than Bosh, Garnett and AD. Does his speed and length garner him some chase down blocks? Does it allow him to recover after getting beat to disrupt plays? What about the fact that he’s already joining a “good” team with Adams, Collins and Draymond helping him develop while the team can use him, but isn’t depending on him to be a starter right away?
Don't look too closely, but seems like we've got a lot of young players with genuine potential moving forward. Wiseman/Chriss/Paschall/Wiggins/Poole (if he maintains his play from the end of last season) is nearly a starting five on its own. A terrible starting 5 to be clear, but one with definite potential.
One thing struck me on Kerr’s comments about how they targeted Wiseman. Knowing Wiseman is your guy from a zoom call and a workout instead of from scouting//watching tape of his play against high level competition is a very scary statement for us folks who remember the way Dumars&Detroit talked about Darko when they were a good team with the #2 pick.
Added some bonus traditional stat lines for the rookies at the end
I both love and hate this pick. Loved because I genuinely think we have a good crop of Centers coming back and prior to Klay going down, I thought that we could afford to sit Wiseman these next two years and allow him to grow organically into this role (since I safely assumed Wiseman was gonna be the pick but for a brief moment that LGW fooled us with a supposed Chicago trade)
Hate because the expectations being heaped on Wiseman THIS YEAR are absolutely nonsensical. It reminds me of Jacob Evans (but the flip side). We bypassed other potentially more impactful players because Evans was supposed to have contributed immediately. This is the opposite: many people expect Wiseman to contribute off the bat when the man played 69 total minutes and used much of the Pandemic time to transform his body (not necessarily his game). Not saying that's a bad thing but again impossible to duplicate even a semblance of experience with lack of college bball and lack of any type of competition over the last year
Im not as high on Wiseman but giving the pundits the benefit of the doubt, IF Wiseman ceiling is as high as many people believe, I'm afraid it won't be reached until the very tail end of the Curry/Klay Prime years (which may still translate to another championship).
> even Kevin Garnett took three years before even one person would vote for him as DPOY
This is going to be interesting to watch develop here. As calm as we all want to be, there's going to be a lot of pressure to win, and if Wiseman's development arc conflicts with that, it could get real bumpy real quick. But like Eric says in the article, I think the Warriors culture is just about an ideal spot to land for this kid.
This is going to be such a fun season!
About the only thing we know about Wiseman is that he was rated the #1 prospect coming out of high school. The comp or info I would like to see is how accurate that rating has been historically? E.G., is that rating generally accurate or generally BS?
Eric: so glad that we are back to basketball so you can get back to your fab analytic writing. Am looking forward to EOP almost as much as the games. Curious to see what you'll have for us.
Fantastic article. Definitely needs to be reiterated to Warrior fans that 19 year old rookies don't often play winning basketball even if they become winning players eventually. I agree with comparing him to high school guys, although I suppose he's already a year older. Less mileage on him though, I guess, so maybe it evens out?
"Given the GSW situation where Wiseman can concentrate on defense and rebounding while playing a limited JaVale McGee type role in the offense, I am hopeful that he will be an above-average defender if he can stay healthy."
One thing I wonder about with Wiseman though is whether he's interested in concentrating on defense and rebounding while playing a limited role in the offense. He's compared his game to guys like Giannis, Bosh, and Garnett. He's said he plays PF or C, which I interpret as him saying Cs aren't generally seen as primary ballhandlers/scoring options and he sees that in his future. He was the #1 recruit out of high school and the #2 pick in the draft and has never been "humbled" into accepting that there are certain things he wants to do that he shouldn't do like Chriss (who now says he was "naive" in Phoenix and that he realizes the skill set he has is better for center).
I hope he is as coachable as the Warriors think he is, because they need to convince him to master the center position first and perhaps may eventually need to convince him that his destiny in the league is to be a three point shooting DeAndre Jordan. Theoretically a very good player, but that's also because Jordan understood his role didn't include taking his defender off the dribble or shooting a turnaround fadeaway midrange with 20 seconds left on the shot clock.
Then again, maybe Wiseman really is good enough to be a primary ballhandler and scoring option in addition to handling all of the traditional center duties. If that's the case, he'll be a top 5 player in the league one day, and the Warriors will be sitting pretty for awhile.
As long as we are doing Comps. Can we get a comp for the Warriors as a competitive team drafting high?
I have three:
80’s Boston: Len Bias dies after the draft ending the championship run as Bird’s back ages fast.
2000’s Pistons: Championship team gets second pick and takes Darko #2 over #3 Melo (and Wade.) Darko fights depression, rides the end of the bench, and the team fades leading to 20 years of mediocrity.
90’s Spurs a consistent 50 win team has an injury to their MVP gets the top pick and adds Duncan (rookie double/double machine) to their DPOY Robinson to make a dominant front court that wins a shortened season championship and leads to 20 years of playoff runs and championships.
Excellent analysis (as usual) Apricot! The comparisons are so difficult because there are so many variables.
For example, when comparing him to high school players, does Wiseman get any advantage from at least participating in a college program, which perhaps builds a bit of maturity and more business-like approach to the game? What about all that time he had to work with specialists on his conditioning and agility?
And where exactly do his natural and developed talents lie in these comparisons. His size is pretty freakish; 15 pounds heavier than Robinson and substantially bigger than Bosh, Garnett and AD. Does his speed and length garner him some chase down blocks? Does it allow him to recover after getting beat to disrupt plays? What about the fact that he’s already joining a “good” team with Adams, Collins and Draymond helping him develop while the team can use him, but isn’t depending on him to be a starter right away?
It’s going to be fascinating.
Don't look too closely, but seems like we've got a lot of young players with genuine potential moving forward. Wiseman/Chriss/Paschall/Wiggins/Poole (if he maintains his play from the end of last season) is nearly a starting five on its own. A terrible starting 5 to be clear, but one with definite potential.
One thing struck me on Kerr’s comments about how they targeted Wiseman. Knowing Wiseman is your guy from a zoom call and a workout instead of from scouting//watching tape of his play against high level competition is a very scary statement for us folks who remember the way Dumars&Detroit talked about Darko when they were a good team with the #2 pick.
great deep dive Apricot! I now fully expect Wiseman to lead the league in blocks and rebounds
Thank you for another great dive into historical comps! These have been my favorite articles!