I briefly scanned the headline and thought this was merely a discussion of what nickname we should use for Wiseman, so was late to the party. Holy shit was I wrong. Great work 3D; you crunched a lot of data into meaningful analysis and this was really well-written. I hope the W’s data people are doing similar work and coming to the same conclusion.
What I'd really love to do is to get an interview with one of their analytics staff, show them this article, and ask them what important stuff I'm missing.
I'm 100% sure they have better data, and more insightful takeaways, but it's always fun for me to poke around and get a sense of what's actually happening out there.
James Wiseman missed a test during the All-Star break, so wasn't available to practice for the Warriors tonight in Los Angeles. Steve Kerr said he "doesn't know" what that means for Wiseman's availability vs Clippers tomorrow
After that Miami game where he rested, Draymond shot (6/16=)38% from three over the next 7 games. Only around 2 attempts per game, but an excellent percentage for him.
Are we 100% sure he can't get back to being a 30+% three point shooter in the second half of the season? It's been three seasons since he hit that mark.
His trends make that one good shooting year look a whole lot more like a blip rather than a baseline, but there's no reason he couldn't. He's only taking wide open ones and I'm sure he shoots well over 30% in warmups
Given our lack of scoring punch, Draymond should have the most motivation ever to develop a decent 3pt shot and a motivated Draymond is always a good thing... so I think it's possible. Even with his "backpack", it's never felt like a mechanical thing to me... so I wouldn't bet against him getting back to a decent shooting percentage.
The caveat is that this has been true for years. Dray has known that defenses were sagging off of him and that they would keep doing so until he makes them pay consistently. He seems a hard enough worker, yet this key aspect of his game hasn't improved. It's mystifying to me. The guy seems like a brilliant basketball mind. Surely he has a shooting coach with whom he works on this stuff DAILY. I don't get it.
Yea, I was mostly just trying to give off optimistic vibes in hopes that it will come into existence lol.
But... I will say, Green's 3p% kept increasing up until it peaked in 2016 and coincidentally dropped off a cliff once KD joined... in my head, I assume, Dray decided "eff it, I dont need to practice this anymore".
BRs latest gem - Warriors to be aggressive w/Trades.
By ‘aggressive’ I can only imagine they mean waiving Brad, fluke a signing of a veteran BU PG who can have an immediate impact (not sure that’s possible), and call the Bucks to see if Giannis available
Thanks D-Cubed, good article and liked the metrics.
Do you think moving JW to the second unit and lack of play making within this unit has impacted his ability to get efficient shots? I guess at this early stage he can only play within the environment he is placed into?
hmm, I'll have to look into it by the relevant dates.
My guess is no, Wiseman is all over the place with his game and there's so much noise that I definitely didn't see any clear trends in his efficiency or anything
More pick n rolls, pick n pops, less post ups, let him spot up and bring the big out the paint, let's have him develop a pump fake drive to the rim for closing out bigs
The problem with any evaluation right now is that he is a 19 years old who missed almost of year of playing in a team environment. He has so much room to grow but of course it's going to take time. He is playing against skilled grown men for the first time but he has the tools. It will come down to work ethic which the team believes he has a great deal of combined with his gifted athletic ability. This isn't just about Curry's and Klay's prime years but also about having a player to build around after them. The hope of course is that they can take advantage of both with Wiseman. This offseason is going to be huge in answering that question because that is when players improve and develop their game. He appears to be mature, smart and driven to do so.
Still struggling with the developing Wiseman mindset being a useful one to the development of winning basketball habits in Wiseman. If Kobe had to earn his playing time but Wiggins and KAT didn’t, is it wise to just play start a minus player to “develop” him? Does it actually lead to future winning habits? I propose that history across sports indicates working to earn your starting spot by adding value to winshares is a far more effective development method than starting a young player over better alternatives. And playing Green and Looney at the 5 are clearly both better alternatives towards playing winning basketball right now.
Winning teams compete to the best of their ability every year. The championship is a great cap to a successful year but not the only sign of success. And did the raptors have a shot against the stacked KD Warriors team?
> but can they cook the rawness out of his game in time to matter?
Alright, let's not eff-around guys, time to put Wiseman in the Instant Pot...
I'm excited to see what the next half of the season will look like, not just for Wiseman but the entire team. I think this is the only real practice time they've had since the start of the season, right?
Smiley looking like Jokic on amphetamines a year after looking way too raw. Clearly, Wiseman is being fed to the wolves in a way that Smiley has not, despite both being young, athletic projects. No doubt Alen will get some minutes with the big club soon and if the game slowing down for him translates at all, we should be pretty optimistic about Wiseman’s projection. I don’t think anyone doubts James would be eviscerating G-League guys.
Smiley's highlights look amazing, but you could make a film of recent lowlights that might be equally amazing. His toughest defender in his first few games back from the G League was "the rim," which was averaging about one laugh-out-loud block vs him per game.
He was coming back from injury and offseason though, and it looks like he played really well in the playoff games they just had, which coincided with his minutes restriction getting lifted. His passing has also showed some promise recently. I think you're right, they may give him a chance for at least garbage time minutes soon, now that the G League bubble is ending.
One move that I remember being impressed by was this fake dribble handoff in the season opener against the Nets (https://youtu.be/7L8Wd6TMyeE?t=37 ). I think you want to get a guy like him into situations where he can take advantage of his elite speed for the center position.
But I also don't blame the Warriors for trying to station him closer to the rim. Quite frankly, he looks soft, and looks like he wants to be a guard. Perhaps the best way to beat that out of him is to force him to play like a big man. Eventually, you can expand his game toward the stuff he's good at, but right now he desperately needs to work on his rebounding, as Kerr mentioned before the break.
At the same time, they might want to run a few more Curry pick and rolls with him or with Draymond and him lurking around the basket to try to get him some easy points for the sake of his confidence, because he doesn't look like he's having a good time out there.
Agreed he has the "wants to be a guard" look to his game. But is it unusual for a 19 year old, particularly one coming straight in from high school, to look soft while adjusting to playing against 25 and 30 year olds? It seems clear from watching him that he actually lacks the strength to go up against most NBA centers. I think we've seen he's willing and capable of making aggressive moves and going at people, it just doesn't usually work right now. He just bounced off of Ayton over and over again against the Suns, and Ayton is far from the strongest center in the league.
I'm hoping the coaches let him get the ball facing up more instead of back to the basket, so he can try more of a speed+strength attack rather than the post moves and lobs they've settled into from him as the season has gone on.
I suspect a decent amount of the frustration watching Wiseman (which I also feel) comes from not just the 2nd overall pick expectations, but also the intuitive expectations that come from seeing him on the court with the frame of a 19-year-old-7-foot-god who occasionally moves like a guard. But it's important to note that frame does not equal muscle mass and focused strength training. Watching him in games shows pretty clearly that when he gets tied up with an opposing big, he almost always gets pushed wayyyy off his base, like almost as bad as a mismatch with a guard. If I'm right and he comes back a lot stronger in year 2, it's going to be fun to watch him start his revenge.
Just so he doesn't go Joe Smith on us. As a rookie Smith (the #1 pick) initially was willing to play low post - and then, if memory serves, he seemingly decided he wasn't willing to get inside and bang with the other bigs. He had a couple of good years with us and after that was just another nothin' special role player for a bunch of years.
Good point. I’m as high on JWise/JDub as anyone but I’m not sure I want him trying to be a young Kevin Garnett or Chris Bosh (his stated role models) any time soon. He may end up a Joe Smith instead. If he can’t primarily protect the rim, rotate and help on D, he won’t work with the current team. Gaining good hands and developing vision with an ability to pass out of trouble would be the next level I’d be looking for (to add to his screen plays). Then the outside set shot, to pull his man out, would make him the perfect Center for this team. He is fast and big and smart and could truly be that guy.
Garnet and Bosh were more PFs and it will likely be too long before JDub develops that kind of multifaceted offensive game (if he ever does). I wouldn’t mind him trying to adopt Garnett’s defensive intensity sooner than later but I’d rather he simplify his offensive goals in his first years and learn to catch near the basket, fake and power it up (some of what Paschall does so well). He has spin moves he can perfect and possibly add a little of Jokic’s cleverness down low. His length would make him very hard to stop.
Probably was asked to do a lot on ball back in HS, needs to learn a new role. He's going to be soft, hesitant, unfamiliar, and comparatively weak. Needs time to adjust and grow. Will he get that time with us? Should he? That depends on trade packages available.
This was actually a knock on him in scouting reports though- that he wanted to play a guard-like role and that it might be tough to teach that out of him.
The non-traditional part of of JW at this point is that his 3 point shot is good enough that the defenders have to honor that shot, just like all of the top centers in the league not named Golbert.
Yes, he fouls too much but at least half of that is the rookie whistle. His post up game will improve to elite as everything slows down for him but that isn't going to happen this season. Like his issues catching the ball, it takes work.
Look for a bit more P&R in the second half, more time in the dunkers spot, a few blowout games for him to find rhythm and some post season experience.
When this season started I thought we needed to be 20-20 after 40 games to make a push for the 6th spot. This team has occasionally boosted those expectation but we are really a 5-6 place team in the west that can beat any of the top 4 teams in a series but not quite strong enough to make a run.
As much as we talk about Wiseman, our ability to get passed the 1st round this year is more about Wiggins improving his offensive efficiency, Oubre stepping up his leadership on the second team, Pascale's knee letting him elevated again and Poole/Manion pushing Wanamaker into the deep bench.
And that's one of the critical issues moving forward for Wiseman's development. They drafted him for some of the non-traditional stuff he can do - but right now, he's not effective enough at any of that to matter. The things he IS already good at subsumes the KD part of his game, and emphasizes the JaVale part.
There's an inherent priority conflict there that's largely symbolic of the questions the Warriors are trying to solve with Wiseman and the current state of the roster
We didn't draft a Javale, they picked Wiseman because he does (or can do) a bunch of other stuff.
So the conundrum is how to get Wiseman better at all that other stuff, while ALSO trying to get him to not do it during games because he's not good at it yet
That doesn't seem like an impossible needle to thread. The other thing is that before the wrist injury, it seemed like Wiseman was getting better from quarter to quarter but since his (brief) return it didn't feel like he was in the flow of the game offensively.
OTOH, take away 3-4 absurd foul calls and his defense over the last few games was respectable, although not elite.
Yes, and thank you, again, for the amazing data! I’d love to see the Warriors help Wiseman develop. I think they can do better by him. Maybe hook him up with Bogut or another mentor so he can work one-on-one. Or is that Zara’s role.
And Janet, thanks for reading and appreciating! I do hope the Warriors bring in someone besides Zaza to work with Wiseman. Like a KG or even Bosh - someone that played a hybrid big man game and can help him find his strengths
Kinda crazy to think the only 5s he can practice against are Looney and Draymond. He never gets practice against full sized centers outside of games. That's gotta be tough, especially when he never even played against college centers. Feels like the Warriors should hire an actual 7 foot center to travel with the team just for Wiseman's development, maybe someone just out of the league like Dedmon.
This year, with a Klay-sized hole at the 2 guard, LaMelo would undoubtedly be better than Wiseman. (Note that had we drafted LaMelo, we would have signed a center instead of trading for Oubre.) This year's Dubs would definitely have been a better team with LaMelo.
But it would have created a future controversy at the 2-guard. Would LaMelo permanently take Klay's job?
I don't recall that there were a lot of good choices among free agent centers this year that we could have signs. Some over the hill guys, some mediocrities. So which center are you saying we could have signed that would have been a difference maker? At any rate, the draft pick was mostly not about this year anyway, much as we'd like to get some help this year.
LaMelo would probably take Shaun Livingston's job, I think.
And FWIW, G&B, I was trying to walk the line there to say that LaMelo was a "miss" but Wiseman could still be a "hit" so it's not as clear cut as folks would like it to be. Especially when you factor in playing time and role, Wiseman seems to be doing ok here. LaMelo is good right now though, which would definitely help this season's team
Passing is this team’s weakness and LaMelo’s strength so it would have been very helpful in that regard.
However, a bad shot taker that doesn’t put in effort on D isn’t the profile you’d draft in a guard if you just got off seeing DLo and Curry get smashed before Curry broke his hand.
So they took a taller bad shot taker who does put in effort on D instead.
So you use the box score to determine if I watch the games? Interesting concept.
Green and Curry make plus passes to set guys up. The rest are a range of trying and improving (D.Lee, JTA, and Loon) to late and risky. Don’t mistake the system for the players vision and skills.
Wiseman is much squarer to the basket on his free throws than his jumper, it drives me crazy that no one’s told him to angle his body like he does when jump shooting.
Interesting comment. I get frustrated when we are in such a hurry to get back on defense that we don't even try to get an offensive rebound. (I yell at my TV but it doesn't care.) If we can get the offensive rebound, we don't all need to rush back on defense. But I'm old school; maybe the days are past when you were taught to follow your shot and to watch a teammate's shot and be in position for the rebound. That said, sometimes I see Our Guy Juan stay back to rebound, and I bless him.
It was not a super well crafted sentence, but hey, like 1,900 words or something, I'm still Curry from the free throw line if I only screw up a few sentences here and there lol
LaMelo's far, far above Shaun Livingston's level. You gotta admit that. As a rookie. LaMelo's long-term upside is a Klay-level shooter and defender *plus* Curry-level rebounding and playmaking.
And Wiseman's upside is really good too, but he just has a much longer road to get there.
I think you and I are in total agreement. *This season*, the Dubs would have been way better off with LaMelo. In the long-term, it's still an open question.
LaMelo's long-term upside is "Klay-level shooter"? Are you kidding? That is an incredibly wrong statement. Klay is arguably the 2nd or 3rd best shooter the NBA has ever seen.
Curry-level rebounding is pretty good for someone Steph's height. Nothing to brag on for Lamelo. And while Lamelo is elite at passing, I'm not comfortable pegging his feel for the game, and thus playmaking ability, at Curry level in the future.
Ha totally agree with the overall concept of LaMelo’s upside while simply shaking my head at how ridiculous the comparison to Klay’s skillset is. They have almost completely opposite skillsets!
> LaMelo's far, far above Shaun Livingston's level. You gotta admit that.
I do not.
Liv was one of the league's most versatile defenders, hardly turned the ball over, and was a damn near auto bucket from the elbows. He also played at a high level on championship teams for years. LaMelo is putting up good numbers on a crappy team as a rooke. He could just as well be Tyreke Evans as far as I know
This all the way. Livingston was an absolute hero in the second unit and an underrated part of how the Warriors set a new record for wins in a single season
I agree although in fairness Klay's defense wasn't all that in his rookie year. He developed as a defender over time. Conceivably LaMelo could become a good defender if he wants to put in the work.
I don't know, I can be pretty patient. At the very least I'd rather wait until Thompson comes back before making any major moves unless the Warriors can somehow turn Wiseman, draft picks, and matching salaries for a current superstar with 2+ years left on their contract. Let's say, for example that if Wiggins+Wiseman+picks == James Harden, (as much as I dislike his style) then sure, the Warriors would have done it, but there are rarely players like Harden on the market.
Regarding passing on LaMelo, of every player available he was the one I rejected the most because of his idiot dad, whom I thought would be too big a burden to bear. Significantly, I don't think I've seen a single word out of Lavar to this point. Had I known that prior to the draft...I wonder how much that figured into them passing on him.
Obviously you'd have to get Myers to talk honestly about it but I figured it was two things: 1. They really liked Wiseman that much; and 2. LaMelo's shot looked pretty ugly.
3D, I would say that the size is there and the tools need developing. But, I'm always thinking that the big man is really an afterthought in Kerr's system and it won't change this season. Next season? I think there is reason to feel there may not be one in GoldenState for JW. I think teams will try to go for him in the off season and there may be a very worthwhile trade waiting to happen. I really don't feel the Dubs are committed to him at this point if he can bring a player(s) that fits into our system better. Things could be worse than keeping him. He's a project and who knows what the future will bring. It's a good problem to have, I think.
So... high volume scorer meaning he takes a lot of shots, right? But what if he becomes a high-efficiency scorer? We can remember games when KD didn't take all that many shots but he scored plenty because he rarely missed a shot the whole game.
>Bogut said Wiseman would never be a high volume scorer in Kerr's system
I mean, *Bogut* would never be a high volume scorer in Kerr's system. (Caveat: who knows what pre-injury Bogut might have looked like in Kerr's system?)
Wiseman is, I think, a different kettle of fish. Likely he will never be the passer Bogut was. But I think his ceiling is very high scoring the ball.
Not in a motion offense like Kerr's. He will not touch the ball as often unless he can develop a screen and roll game. He like to shoot but he needs to develop an NBA game which comprises so much more than scoring.
True regarding the first point but Kerr will need to change the system as Curry/Klay/Dray start to slow down (hopefully not for another 4 years). So much of this system works because Steph running off ball and creating chaos. By that time, Wiseman will be inching towards his prime. I think it will work out.
Same, I still think Wiseman can work out here. He'll need to get a lot better in order to become a franchise corner stone, but that's the point of picking a 19 year old - he's got room to improve
This is also assuming he just plays the center role. The idealized version of him, and the one that he might reach because he does have those guard-like tendencies, is a less ball-dominant mix of KD and Anthony Davis that has the frame to comfortably defend centers and the ability to shoot efficiently, score both from the perimeter and inside with one or two dribbles, and hit an open teammate.
I briefly scanned the headline and thought this was merely a discussion of what nickname we should use for Wiseman, so was late to the party. Holy shit was I wrong. Great work 3D; you crunched a lot of data into meaningful analysis and this was really well-written. I hope the W’s data people are doing similar work and coming to the same conclusion.
thanks for the kind words Goofus!
What I'd really love to do is to get an interview with one of their analytics staff, show them this article, and ask them what important stuff I'm missing.
I'm 100% sure they have better data, and more insightful takeaways, but it's always fun for me to poke around and get a sense of what's actually happening out there.
Oh noooo
> @anthonyVslater
James Wiseman missed a test during the All-Star break, so wasn't available to practice for the Warriors tonight in Los Angeles. Steve Kerr said he "doesn't know" what that means for Wiseman's availability vs Clippers tomorrow
Somebody send him a recurring calendar invite with SMS and email notifications on plz.
This is for sure a Big Jim move
Practice??? We talking practice???
Will he still be starting?
Eyy hearts are back!
Something I didn't notice but is true:
After that Miami game where he rested, Draymond shot (6/16=)38% from three over the next 7 games. Only around 2 attempts per game, but an excellent percentage for him.
Are we 100% sure he can't get back to being a 30+% three point shooter in the second half of the season? It's been three seasons since he hit that mark.
I would personally be shocked, but in a good way.
His trends make that one good shooting year look a whole lot more like a blip rather than a baseline, but there's no reason he couldn't. He's only taking wide open ones and I'm sure he shoots well over 30% in warmups
Given our lack of scoring punch, Draymond should have the most motivation ever to develop a decent 3pt shot and a motivated Draymond is always a good thing... so I think it's possible. Even with his "backpack", it's never felt like a mechanical thing to me... so I wouldn't bet against him getting back to a decent shooting percentage.
The caveat is that this has been true for years. Dray has known that defenses were sagging off of him and that they would keep doing so until he makes them pay consistently. He seems a hard enough worker, yet this key aspect of his game hasn't improved. It's mystifying to me. The guy seems like a brilliant basketball mind. Surely he has a shooting coach with whom he works on this stuff DAILY. I don't get it.
Yea, I was mostly just trying to give off optimistic vibes in hopes that it will come into existence lol.
But... I will say, Green's 3p% kept increasing up until it peaked in 2016 and coincidentally dropped off a cliff once KD joined... in my head, I assume, Dray decided "eff it, I dont need to practice this anymore".
What difference would that make? Defenses already don't give a crap if Draymond has the ball at the 3pt line.
All we need is for him to make the wide open 3
BRs latest gem - Warriors to be aggressive w/Trades.
By ‘aggressive’ I can only imagine they mean waiving Brad, fluke a signing of a veteran BU PG who can have an immediate impact (not sure that’s possible), and call the Bucks to see if Giannis available
The only real aggressive move I could see is waiving Paschall around and seeing who bites.
I’m hoping they do that.
Good pun 👍🏻
Thanks D-Cubed, good article and liked the metrics.
Do you think moving JW to the second unit and lack of play making within this unit has impacted his ability to get efficient shots? I guess at this early stage he can only play within the environment he is placed into?
hmm, I'll have to look into it by the relevant dates.
My guess is no, Wiseman is all over the place with his game and there's so much noise that I definitely didn't see any clear trends in his efficiency or anything
Kerr just needs to use wiseman more effecienctly.
More pick n rolls, pick n pops, less post ups, let him spot up and bring the big out the paint, let's have him develop a pump fake drive to the rim for closing out bigs
He's been better in pick n roll situations then the many post ups we have given him is what I'm saying
The problem with any evaluation right now is that he is a 19 years old who missed almost of year of playing in a team environment. He has so much room to grow but of course it's going to take time. He is playing against skilled grown men for the first time but he has the tools. It will come down to work ethic which the team believes he has a great deal of combined with his gifted athletic ability. This isn't just about Curry's and Klay's prime years but also about having a player to build around after them. The hope of course is that they can take advantage of both with Wiseman. This offseason is going to be huge in answering that question because that is when players improve and develop their game. He appears to be mature, smart and driven to do so.
Still struggling with the developing Wiseman mindset being a useful one to the development of winning basketball habits in Wiseman. If Kobe had to earn his playing time but Wiggins and KAT didn’t, is it wise to just play start a minus player to “develop” him? Does it actually lead to future winning habits? I propose that history across sports indicates working to earn your starting spot by adding value to winshares is a far more effective development method than starting a young player over better alternatives. And playing Green and Looney at the 5 are clearly both better alternatives towards playing winning basketball right now.
But we gotta be real we have no shot at the chip this year with the nets super team and it'll be very tough next year as well
Let's see the Nets get out of the Eastern Conference first before we put them as a threat on par with the Lakers.
It’s always tough. Just ask David West!
Winning teams compete to the best of their ability every year. The championship is a great cap to a successful year but not the only sign of success. And did the raptors have a shot against the stacked KD Warriors team?
Good point, which I would <3 on, but for some reason that ability isn't there for me right now.
> but can they cook the rawness out of his game in time to matter?
Alright, let's not eff-around guys, time to put Wiseman in the Instant Pot...
I'm excited to see what the next half of the season will look like, not just for Wiseman but the entire team. I think this is the only real practice time they've had since the start of the season, right?
And in related big-man development news, here's some Smiley GL playoff highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmwSBCRnYyE
I remember watching one preseason in like 2008 or 2009 and all of a sudden Biedrins looked huge.
Smiley looking like Jokic on amphetamines a year after looking way too raw. Clearly, Wiseman is being fed to the wolves in a way that Smiley has not, despite both being young, athletic projects. No doubt Alen will get some minutes with the big club soon and if the game slowing down for him translates at all, we should be pretty optimistic about Wiseman’s projection. I don’t think anyone doubts James would be eviscerating G-League guys.
Smiley's highlights look amazing, but you could make a film of recent lowlights that might be equally amazing. His toughest defender in his first few games back from the G League was "the rim," which was averaging about one laugh-out-loud block vs him per game.
He was coming back from injury and offseason though, and it looks like he played really well in the playoff games they just had, which coincided with his minutes restriction getting lifted. His passing has also showed some promise recently. I think you're right, they may give him a chance for at least garbage time minutes soon, now that the G League bubble is ending.
The rim can play defense against the best of them. Just look at Zion during the ASG.
One move that I remember being impressed by was this fake dribble handoff in the season opener against the Nets (https://youtu.be/7L8Wd6TMyeE?t=37 ). I think you want to get a guy like him into situations where he can take advantage of his elite speed for the center position.
But I also don't blame the Warriors for trying to station him closer to the rim. Quite frankly, he looks soft, and looks like he wants to be a guard. Perhaps the best way to beat that out of him is to force him to play like a big man. Eventually, you can expand his game toward the stuff he's good at, but right now he desperately needs to work on his rebounding, as Kerr mentioned before the break.
At the same time, they might want to run a few more Curry pick and rolls with him or with Draymond and him lurking around the basket to try to get him some easy points for the sake of his confidence, because he doesn't look like he's having a good time out there.
Agreed he has the "wants to be a guard" look to his game. But is it unusual for a 19 year old, particularly one coming straight in from high school, to look soft while adjusting to playing against 25 and 30 year olds? It seems clear from watching him that he actually lacks the strength to go up against most NBA centers. I think we've seen he's willing and capable of making aggressive moves and going at people, it just doesn't usually work right now. He just bounced off of Ayton over and over again against the Suns, and Ayton is far from the strongest center in the league.
I'm hoping the coaches let him get the ball facing up more instead of back to the basket, so he can try more of a speed+strength attack rather than the post moves and lobs they've settled into from him as the season has gone on.
That's a point we don't often discuss: At 19 he isn't physically mature yet. He is likely to get a lot stronger over the next couple of years.
I suspect a decent amount of the frustration watching Wiseman (which I also feel) comes from not just the 2nd overall pick expectations, but also the intuitive expectations that come from seeing him on the court with the frame of a 19-year-old-7-foot-god who occasionally moves like a guard. But it's important to note that frame does not equal muscle mass and focused strength training. Watching him in games shows pretty clearly that when he gets tied up with an opposing big, he almost always gets pushed wayyyy off his base, like almost as bad as a mismatch with a guard. If I'm right and he comes back a lot stronger in year 2, it's going to be fun to watch him start his revenge.
Just so he doesn't go Joe Smith on us. As a rookie Smith (the #1 pick) initially was willing to play low post - and then, if memory serves, he seemingly decided he wasn't willing to get inside and bang with the other bigs. He had a couple of good years with us and after that was just another nothin' special role player for a bunch of years.
Good point. I’m as high on JWise/JDub as anyone but I’m not sure I want him trying to be a young Kevin Garnett or Chris Bosh (his stated role models) any time soon. He may end up a Joe Smith instead. If he can’t primarily protect the rim, rotate and help on D, he won’t work with the current team. Gaining good hands and developing vision with an ability to pass out of trouble would be the next level I’d be looking for (to add to his screen plays). Then the outside set shot, to pull his man out, would make him the perfect Center for this team. He is fast and big and smart and could truly be that guy.
Garnet and Bosh were more PFs and it will likely be too long before JDub develops that kind of multifaceted offensive game (if he ever does). I wouldn’t mind him trying to adopt Garnett’s defensive intensity sooner than later but I’d rather he simplify his offensive goals in his first years and learn to catch near the basket, fake and power it up (some of what Paschall does so well). He has spin moves he can perfect and possibly add a little of Jokic’s cleverness down low. His length would make him very hard to stop.
Probably was asked to do a lot on ball back in HS, needs to learn a new role. He's going to be soft, hesitant, unfamiliar, and comparatively weak. Needs time to adjust and grow. Will he get that time with us? Should he? That depends on trade packages available.
This was actually a knock on him in scouting reports though- that he wanted to play a guard-like role and that it might be tough to teach that out of him.
The non-traditional part of of JW at this point is that his 3 point shot is good enough that the defenders have to honor that shot, just like all of the top centers in the league not named Golbert.
Yes, he fouls too much but at least half of that is the rookie whistle. His post up game will improve to elite as everything slows down for him but that isn't going to happen this season. Like his issues catching the ball, it takes work.
Look for a bit more P&R in the second half, more time in the dunkers spot, a few blowout games for him to find rhythm and some post season experience.
When this season started I thought we needed to be 20-20 after 40 games to make a push for the 6th spot. This team has occasionally boosted those expectation but we are really a 5-6 place team in the west that can beat any of the top 4 teams in a series but not quite strong enough to make a run.
As much as we talk about Wiseman, our ability to get passed the 1st round this year is more about Wiggins improving his offensive efficiency, Oubre stepping up his leadership on the second team, Pascale's knee letting him elevated again and Poole/Manion pushing Wanamaker into the deep bench.
And that's one of the critical issues moving forward for Wiseman's development. They drafted him for some of the non-traditional stuff he can do - but right now, he's not effective enough at any of that to matter. The things he IS already good at subsumes the KD part of his game, and emphasizes the JaVale part.
There's an inherent priority conflict there that's largely symbolic of the questions the Warriors are trying to solve with Wiseman and the current state of the roster
IDK, we seems pretty efficient when JaVale played his 12-18 minutes/game.
Right, but that's the conflict right?
We didn't draft a Javale, they picked Wiseman because he does (or can do) a bunch of other stuff.
So the conundrum is how to get Wiseman better at all that other stuff, while ALSO trying to get him to not do it during games because he's not good at it yet
Sounds like off-season development for the future and do things that lead to winning right now to earn playing time would be the traditional method.
That doesn't seem like an impossible needle to thread. The other thing is that before the wrist injury, it seemed like Wiseman was getting better from quarter to quarter but since his (brief) return it didn't feel like he was in the flow of the game offensively.
OTOH, take away 3-4 absurd foul calls and his defense over the last few games was respectable, although not elite.
Yes, and thank you, again, for the amazing data! I’d love to see the Warriors help Wiseman develop. I think they can do better by him. Maybe hook him up with Bogut or another mentor so he can work one-on-one. Or is that Zara’s role.
That would be *Zaza not the women’s dress shop.
affordable men's dress clothes as well!
And Janet, thanks for reading and appreciating! I do hope the Warriors bring in someone besides Zaza to work with Wiseman. Like a KG or even Bosh - someone that played a hybrid big man game and can help him find his strengths
Kinda crazy to think the only 5s he can practice against are Looney and Draymond. He never gets practice against full sized centers outside of games. That's gotta be tough, especially when he never even played against college centers. Feels like the Warriors should hire an actual 7 foot center to travel with the team just for Wiseman's development, maybe someone just out of the league like Dedmon.
That's a really good idea!
And a really good point!
Personally, I don’t think it’s at all clear that Ball would have been a better pick, and I’m very glad we took Wiseman.
This year, with a Klay-sized hole at the 2 guard, LaMelo would undoubtedly be better than Wiseman. (Note that had we drafted LaMelo, we would have signed a center instead of trading for Oubre.) This year's Dubs would definitely have been a better team with LaMelo.
But it would have created a future controversy at the 2-guard. Would LaMelo permanently take Klay's job?
I don't recall that there were a lot of good choices among free agent centers this year that we could have signs. Some over the hill guys, some mediocrities. So which center are you saying we could have signed that would have been a difference maker? At any rate, the draft pick was mostly not about this year anyway, much as we'd like to get some help this year.
*could have signed
Wasn’t Klay moving to the three when they had DLo?
It was PR. They never intended to keep DLO.
The FO really like the Splash Bro backcourt. Even with DLo, they were really hesitant to say Klay was going to be a 3 on the team when he came back
Peanut butter and Jelly! 100% with the FO on that!
LaMelo would probably take Shaun Livingston's job, I think.
And FWIW, G&B, I was trying to walk the line there to say that LaMelo was a "miss" but Wiseman could still be a "hit" so it's not as clear cut as folks would like it to be. Especially when you factor in playing time and role, Wiseman seems to be doing ok here. LaMelo is good right now though, which would definitely help this season's team
Passing is this team’s weakness and LaMelo’s strength so it would have been very helpful in that regard.
However, a bad shot taker that doesn’t put in effort on D isn’t the profile you’d draft in a guard if you just got off seeing DLo and Curry get smashed before Curry broke his hand.
So they took a taller bad shot taker who does put in effort on D instead.
> Passing is this team’s weakness
Alright, now I'm convinced you're a bot or don't watch the team. The Warriors are LITERALLY #1 in the NBA in assists.
So you use the box score to determine if I watch the games? Interesting concept.
Green and Curry make plus passes to set guys up. The rest are a range of trying and improving (D.Lee, JTA, and Loon) to late and risky. Don’t mistake the system for the players vision and skills.
At least Wiseman's shot mechanics seem pretty good so there's hope. That said, his free throw shooting is not where it needs to be.
Wiseman is much squarer to the basket on his free throws than his jumper, it drives me crazy that no one’s told him to angle his body like he does when jump shooting.
Feels like Wiggins seems to miss short or long, most often he’s on line. Maybe they should plan to always have him follow his shot for the rebound?
Hopefully, they are planning to trade him!
Interesting comment. I get frustrated when we are in such a hurry to get back on defense that we don't even try to get an offensive rebound. (I yell at my TV but it doesn't care.) If we can get the offensive rebound, we don't all need to rush back on defense. But I'm old school; maybe the days are past when you were taught to follow your shot and to watch a teammate's shot and be in position for the rebound. That said, sometimes I see Our Guy Juan stay back to rebound, and I bless him.
That makes sense. I just bristle because I'm already quite attached to J-Dub.
Bristle away good sir!
It was not a super well crafted sentence, but hey, like 1,900 words or something, I'm still Curry from the free throw line if I only screw up a few sentences here and there lol
LaMelo's far, far above Shaun Livingston's level. You gotta admit that. As a rookie. LaMelo's long-term upside is a Klay-level shooter and defender *plus* Curry-level rebounding and playmaking.
And Wiseman's upside is really good too, but he just has a much longer road to get there.
I think you and I are in total agreement. *This season*, the Dubs would have been way better off with LaMelo. In the long-term, it's still an open question.
LaMelo's long-term upside is "Klay-level shooter"? Are you kidding? That is an incredibly wrong statement. Klay is arguably the 2nd or 3rd best shooter the NBA has ever seen.
Curry-level rebounding is pretty good for someone Steph's height. Nothing to brag on for Lamelo. And while Lamelo is elite at passing, I'm not comfortable pegging his feel for the game, and thus playmaking ability, at Curry level in the future.
Ha totally agree with the overall concept of LaMelo’s upside while simply shaking my head at how ridiculous the comparison to Klay’s skillset is. They have almost completely opposite skillsets!
> LaMelo's far, far above Shaun Livingston's level. You gotta admit that.
I do not.
Liv was one of the league's most versatile defenders, hardly turned the ball over, and was a damn near auto bucket from the elbows. He also played at a high level on championship teams for years. LaMelo is putting up good numbers on a crappy team as a rooke. He could just as well be Tyreke Evans as far as I know
This all the way. Livingston was an absolute hero in the second unit and an underrated part of how the Warriors set a new record for wins in a single season
LaMelo’s vision, passing and creativity are plus. I am not seeing LaMelo getting anywhere near Klay shooting or defense. Anything’s possible but...
I agree although in fairness Klay's defense wasn't all that in his rookie year. He developed as a defender over time. Conceivably LaMelo could become a good defender if he wants to put in the work.
I don't know, I can be pretty patient. At the very least I'd rather wait until Thompson comes back before making any major moves unless the Warriors can somehow turn Wiseman, draft picks, and matching salaries for a current superstar with 2+ years left on their contract. Let's say, for example that if Wiggins+Wiseman+picks == James Harden, (as much as I dislike his style) then sure, the Warriors would have done it, but there are rarely players like Harden on the market.
Ewwwww
Regarding passing on LaMelo, of every player available he was the one I rejected the most because of his idiot dad, whom I thought would be too big a burden to bear. Significantly, I don't think I've seen a single word out of Lavar to this point. Had I known that prior to the draft...I wonder how much that figured into them passing on him.
Obviously you'd have to get Myers to talk honestly about it but I figured it was two things: 1. They really liked Wiseman that much; and 2. LaMelo's shot looked pretty ugly.
DLo scars made them pass
3D, I would say that the size is there and the tools need developing. But, I'm always thinking that the big man is really an afterthought in Kerr's system and it won't change this season. Next season? I think there is reason to feel there may not be one in GoldenState for JW. I think teams will try to go for him in the off season and there may be a very worthwhile trade waiting to happen. I really don't feel the Dubs are committed to him at this point if he can bring a player(s) that fits into our system better. Things could be worse than keeping him. He's a project and who knows what the future will bring. It's a good problem to have, I think.
Wiggins and JW for KAT and Edwards? Sweet, lol.
You know one thing I didn't include was Bogut talking about Wiseman on his pod.
A couple of the main talking points:
-Bogut said Wiseman would never be a high volume scorer in Kerr's system
-said hands can be developed, admitted Wiseman had issues in that regard, and recommended specifically training to improve that
So... high volume scorer meaning he takes a lot of shots, right? But what if he becomes a high-efficiency scorer? We can remember games when KD didn't take all that many shots but he scored plenty because he rarely missed a shot the whole game.
>Bogut said Wiseman would never be a high volume scorer in Kerr's system
I mean, *Bogut* would never be a high volume scorer in Kerr's system. (Caveat: who knows what pre-injury Bogut might have looked like in Kerr's system?)
Wiseman is, I think, a different kettle of fish. Likely he will never be the passer Bogut was. But I think his ceiling is very high scoring the ball.
Not in a motion offense like Kerr's. He will not touch the ball as often unless he can develop a screen and roll game. He like to shoot but he needs to develop an NBA game which comprises so much more than scoring.
True regarding the first point but Kerr will need to change the system as Curry/Klay/Dray start to slow down (hopefully not for another 4 years). So much of this system works because Steph running off ball and creating chaos. By that time, Wiseman will be inching towards his prime. I think it will work out.
Same, I still think Wiseman can work out here. He'll need to get a lot better in order to become a franchise corner stone, but that's the point of picking a 19 year old - he's got room to improve
This is also assuming he just plays the center role. The idealized version of him, and the one that he might reach because he does have those guard-like tendencies, is a less ball-dominant mix of KD and Anthony Davis that has the frame to comfortably defend centers and the ability to shoot efficiently, score both from the perimeter and inside with one or two dribbles, and hit an open teammate.
That view really goes against the grain of what Kerr has been all about. But, who knows? Maybe he can change a bit.