Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
What did the Warriors see in Klay Thompson when they drafted him?
As you know, I put together simple scouting reports for all the players in the Draft Tournament. I thought it would be fun to do the same process retrospectively on the Big 3.
I used Top 50 in BPM or PRPG as a threshold for getting into the 2024 Draft Tourney, and I was worried that I would have screened out the Big 3. This would obviously be a big weakness of this approach.
I am pleased to see that they graded out very well on BPM, which I have been using as a very simple blunt proxy for what should be a more sophisticated analytical approach. The advantage of BPM is that this data is readily available.
Anyway, here is my scouting report done in the same format as the other Draft Tourney reports.
Everything after the videos are the genuine scouting reports from the season he was drafted and before.
Klay Thompson 2011
Guard, 6-6, 200lb
BPM #27
PRPG #39
Why does BPM love him?
Above average TS% on sky-high Usage, above average shooting 83.8% FT and 39.8% 3P on very high 3PA volume.
Above average Assist Rate. [The irony - EA]
Above average Steal Rate. [The irony - EA]
Why isn’t he in the running for #1 pick?
He’s a third-year player.
He lacks NBA athleticism and is a below-the-rim player, Will he get bullied by more athletic players? Will he be able to hold his own on the defensive end?
He had a college scandal with marijuana possession which may cause concern among teams.
In the pros, he won’t have the green light to fire up as many threes as in college. In 2011, threes are still regarded as a complementary weapon but not something you can build a championship team around. It is well known in 2011 that you can’t win a trophy just shooting jump shots.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
D'Angelo Russell 2015
Klay Thompson 2010
Greivis Vasquez 2010
Cade Cunningham 2021
Aran Smith 2011-04-22
NBA Comparison: Marco Belinelli
Strengths: One of the top pure shooters on the college level … Prolific outside shooter with a defined role for the NBA level … Right hander who at 6’6 with long arms has good size for the NBA 2-guard position … Shows an excellent feel having been around the game his entire life. Understands his limitations and plays within his game well … Plays well off the ball. Stays active. Works hard to create scoring opportunities. Understands how to create shots for himself off the ball coming off screens … Very good spot up shooter … Comfortable handling the ball and can use the dribble to create shots … Can use his left hand effectively … Shows an advanced in between game with tear drops and the use of the glass … Effectively uses pump fakes to draw defenders off balance … Has perfect form on his shot and deep range. Squares to the basket. Quick, concise, fluid stroke with a high release … Gets his shot off quickly and can do so without needing much space … Exhibits prudent shot selection … Large wingspan allows him to play more athletic than he appears. Can dunk on his defenders if he catches opponents napping … Solid decision maker with a positive a/to ratio … 1.6 steals per game as a senior showed his progression as a defender / anticipation … Extremely level headed, doesn’t show a great deal of emotion or get rattled easily …
Weaknesses: An average athlete who plays below the rim … He’s a "momentum athlete" in the sense that he shows solid athleticism when he has momentum moving towards the rim … Much better in the half court than in the open floor. His lack of elite athleticism gets exposed in the transition game … Lacks great foot speed which inhibits his ability to take the ball off the dribble against quick defenders … Recevied a one game suspension due to a marijuana possession charge, but scouts don’t seem too concerned about that therefore it hasn’t affected his stock much … Long, athletic defenders can give him trouble …
Notes: Was among the top 10 scorers in the nation as a junior at 22.1 ppg … He’s the son of former #1 overall pick Mychal Thompson (1978) … Put up 43 points at Washington knocking down eight 3 point shots …
Joseph Treutlein, 2011-05-24
Klay Thompson is one of the most potent scorers in college while he made noticeable strides in multiple areas of his game this year, though he has some athletic limitations from an NBA perspective. What situation would he best be suited for in the NBA?
Establishing himself as a dynamic scorer early in his freshman season, Thompson continued to show flashes throughout his first two years at Washington State, but struggled with inconsistency and inefficiency often. As a junior, he took his scoring game to the next level while also making strides with his passing game, both of which gave his draft stock a considerable boost. Still, there are many questions surrounding Thompson's game and how it will transition to the next level, namely due to his lack of great athleticism and struggles on the defensive end.
A go-to scorer at the college level who uses a good number of possessions, the biggest initial question for Thompson is how big of a transition he'll have to make in the NBA. The good news is that unlike many high-scoring college players, he isn't really a dominant ball-handler and already is used in multiple situations operating off the ball.
Relying heavily on his perimeter shot (308 jump shots compared to 123 shots around the basket in the half court this season according to Synergy), Thompson is constantly moving without the ball and coming around screens, showing a great knack for finding open areas of the floor and being multi-capable once the ball gets in his hands. Making quick decisions and showing good scoring instincts, Thompson doesn't usually have the ball for that long before it leaves his hands.
Thompson is at his most comfortable spotting up or coming around screens, showing excellent shooting mechanics with consistent balance and a high and quick release. He has cut down on bad tendencies over the course of his career and doesn't take many ill-advised shots anymore, being pretty efficient overall. He's absolutely deadly with his jumper when left open, scoring 1.46 points per shot on uncontested jumpers according to Synergy, and he should see many more of those in the NBA as he transitions to having much less defensive attention.
With many volume shooters entering the NBA, there is a large change in role in terms of how often the ball is in their hands or what types of shots they're getting, but if he lands in a good situation, Thompson's only adjustment will be the number of shots he takes, not the type. Any up-tempo team would be a good fit, though he could excel just as easily in a half court-oriented team with a lot of screening and ball movement.
Thompson's lack of great athletic tools is somewhat concerning, though his solid size at 6'7 combined with a high release and a shot that doesn't need much separation should somewhat mitigate the increased athleticism and length he'll see from defenders. Transitioning from a first to likely third or fourth option will also help, while his high motor, constant off-ball movement, and feel for getting open will likely be his biggest assets. If he continues to exhibit those traits with a smaller role, he can be a major asset for a well-run half court offense.
Thompson showed some improvements with his ability to attack off the dribble as a junior, though it is still not a great strength, as his first step is underwhelming and he lacks much in the lane of advanced ball-handling. He occasionally shows some toughness going to the rim and isn't afraid of contact, while he also has a nice floater in the lane, which he gets off easily at his size in spite of his lack of vertical explosiveness.
Thompson's biggest assets in his dribble-drive game are his decisiveness and off-ball motion, however, as he frequently gets a half step on his man before he even puts the ball on the floor due to the positions he catches the ball in. This, combined with his quick decision-making and good recognition of driving lanes make him dangerous with straight-line drives from the wing, which should at least be enough to keep NBA defenses honest.
He'll never likely be a great finisher at the rim, nor one to take his man consistently in isolation, but has the feel and skills to utilize the dribble-drive playing more off the ball, something that will likely be critical to separate him from being just a perimeter shooter.
Another area Thompson improved upon during his time in college is his passing game, something he'll likely need to continue doing at the pro level. He shows occasional prowess both on simple drive-and-dishes and operating pick-and-rolls, being a solid passer for a wing. Given his likely diminished scoring role in the pros, turning this area from adequate to a strength could definitely help him become a useful cog, and it would go well with his prowess moving off the ball.
While there are some concerns about Thompson's athleticism hurting his offensive game at the next level, the bigger concerns lie on the defensive end, where he is noticeably lacking in lateral quickness and is taken off the dribble often.
Thompson's effort level on the defensive end has improved during his time in college, and he shows solid awareness and makes good rotations off the ball, but his lack of quickness is certainly something that can be exploited. His problems can be hid somewhat on good defensive teams, and his apparent effort level and capacity for playing good team defense will certainly be useful, though he'd have a lot of work to do to even become an average NBA defender overall.
Thompson's defensive problems should be equally pronounced at either the shooting guard or small forward positions, and the questions for teams will be how much can they coach him up and whether his offensive strengths do enough to outweigh his defensive shortcomings. His progress as a junior and strong season overall definitely quell those concerns, at least somewhat.
Looking forward, Thompson's scoring versatility and the diverse roles he's played at the college level make him a potentially good fit in a variety of offenses in the NBA. His lack of great athleticism will likely always limit him from becoming an offensive focal point, and being drafted by a young team lacking go-to scorers might give him opportunities, but would likely not help his long-term development.
Currently projected as a mid-first rounder, Thompson will likely have a chance to be drafted by a playoff-caliber team, where he could find early opportunities to be an offensive cog with his off-ball movement and spot shooting ability. Being equally capable from both mid and long range while not needing the ball in his hands to score, Thompson would fit well on a team with a balanced offense that also has the defenders to make up for his shortcomings. San Antonio, Denver, and Utah are three obvious examples, especially because they're all known for their history with spot-shooting wings, though he could also excel on an up-tempo team with a penchant for pushing the ball ahead for open shots.
With his highly developed perimeter skill set and feel for the game, Thompson could contribute early in his career, and probably doesn't have a significant upside beyond what he is now due to his physical limitations. There's no guarantee he seamlessly makes the role to being a lesser scoring option, however, and he will need to stay away from the bad habits he had earlier in his college career, something being drafted onto a winning team with strong coaching would definitely help avoid.
DraftExpress Staff, 2011-06-06
One of our stops along our 2011 west coast workout swing brought us to the University of Southern California to check in with four BDA clients preparing for the draft including Klay Thompson.
The part of the workout we saw included extensive skill development work and ended with competitive two-on-two play. The four BDA Sports clients worked for roughly two hours under the instruction of trainer Ross McMains, who gave us some background on how he developed the unique series of drills he had each prospect performing.
One of the top shooters in the 2011 draft class, Klay Thompson had a terrific three year career at Washington State. Emerging as an elite spot-up threat as a freshman, the California native was the top wing scorer on the west coast as a junior. Averaging 21.6 points per-game this season, Thompson earned All-Pac-10 First Team honors while solidifying himself as a first round prospect despite his team's inability to reach the NCAA Tournament.
Here at the Galen Center, Thompson has been working to adjust to the NBA three-point line, shore up his footwork, and diversify the range of moves he can use to score off the dribble. After warming up with some dynamic exercises and basic drills, Thompson got down to business in catch and shoot drills. Making roughly half of his open jumpers last season according to Synergy Sports Technology, Thompson's shot is a thing of beauty, and that becomes even more clear in a setting like this where you can see just how intense he is about his consistency and how his mechanics virtually never waver. Though he didn't knock down shots at a typical rate at the combine, scouts are fully aware of Thompson's ability to stretch the floor, and from what we saw, he looked comfortable out to NBA range.
After finishing the simple catch and shoot drills, Thompson worked on shooting coming off of all types of simulated screens, pulling up off the dribble, and a series of moves aimed at getting to the rim. His footwork looked incredibly smooth, and while he wasn't known for his quickness on the college level, he's looking to develop some ways to use the tools to he has to score inside the arc.
In competitive play, Thompson was guarded well by his brother Mychel for stretches, but had some nice moments too. Playing against his brother is a major challenge for Klay, since Mychel knows his tendencies inside and out and does not take it easy on his little brother. Obviously, a two-on-two game isn't reflective of what Thompson will be asked to do at the next level, but it was interesting to see him use some of the moves we was working on in drills in a competitive setting.
Amongst all the players we witnessed on our west coast workout swing, Thompson was amongst the most impressive. He's working on a diverse range of skills, and it will be interesting to see how those things translate to whatever system he lands in next season. His shooting will provide immediate value to the team that drafts him, and with time, he could become a very dangerous all-around scoring threat at the next level.
Can't tell if I should be excited that Podz/Trayce are playing tomorrow, or if I'll be rolling my eyes as Podz gets upset about some missed rotation in a summer league game...
Can we get a Melton, GP2, Moody, SloMo/Dray, TJD lineup playing together before making any trades?