Curious where you would rate my "Over 40- Under 6 foot Co-ed Rec League experience"? I averaged a solid 3.2/0/4 one season. That's got to be on par with at least a "Christmas Day/Late Game between two underachieving teams" type of intensity right?
There’s been discussion about them being really impressed with just about every one of the top prospects. Most of these are probably smoke screens. They want teams to worry that the Warriors might take “their guy”, so have to consider trading with them.
They were reportedly impressed by Edwards and Wiseman too and I could see them picking either of those guys with the 2nd pick, but if they really have an interest in Avdija, it's because they think they can get him by trading down.
Trading down is probably the best option. We could then pick up another asset from our trading partner ala Mitch Robinson, plus the pick. But the trade down would only happen if there were more than 1 choice that the Warriors had settled on as there would be no guarantee that any of them would still be on the board by the time they picked. Realistically, Ball & Wiseman should be gone after the 4th pick. There are still some very good choices that could be waiting for us. I think it would be a well chosen gamble unless the 'guy' they really want would only be at or near the top.
I think the way this usually works is you pick the guy you think is most coveted and make a draft day trade if somebody has a lower pick and another asset that you like. Worst case, there is no good trade to be had and you have a guy that you thought was the best available player.
So this means you now have "adjustment factor" formulas to convert season stats for any league to the expected equivalent stats for any other league, right? ;)
That low ranking for the ABL is what I don't get about all the Ball hype. Even within the context of a generally softer field of competition, his numbers weren't that great. Some people who have looked a lot closer than I have don't seem very concerned by it though so I wonder what I'm missing here.
yep it's the NBL, not ABL, but it's a pretty good standard, often underestimated. Many solid NBA players have had stints in the league, even in their prime. Joe Ingles for example had 3 or 4 seasons averaging only 13ppg. Still a pretty decent NBA player.
I only see stats for Ingles in Liga/Euroleague/Olympics, and while he did only average 12.5ppg he did it w/ solid efficiency (.563/.351/.739) vs Ball (.458/.250/.723)
Ball is a work in progress. If they feel his potential is high, it wouldn't ultimately matter what league he is playing in. Fit, athleticism, and skill, cannot be measured with any of these stats.
> Fit, athleticism, and skill, cannot be measured...
What? Athleticism and skill are extremely measurable.
But end of day, I'm fully trusting whatever the front office does. Lots of uncertainty in any draft, and moreso this year than any other. I do not envy the decision makers right now! There's so much pressure to get this offseason right
How about the rest of the sentence that qualifies the statement. 'with any of these stats'. What is the stat that shows how a player 'fits' into a lineup? Where is the measurement stat for athleticism? Where is the stat for skill?
I think Ball's 7.9 assists w/ 2.7 ast/TO ratio shows that he's a skilled passer, and his .250 3P% on 6.7 attempts per game show that he's not a skilled shooter...
exactly, I don't know if he/she is trolling, or legitimately doesn't agree that stats are reflections of things like skill and athleticism. Fit can be predicted based off strengths and weaknesses of players and the team that they are going to land with... Sure, it's not a box score level analysis, but there is definitely useful information in the stats.
We get combine measurements and there are speed stats widely available.
But the broader point is that you can for sure infer something off of statistical data, it's the reason why people even care to look at those numbers - it's meaningful.
I agree, but few prospects are at their peak and the really good ones will have upside. Upside is the gamble, no? His brother improved his shooting a lot after he left the Lakers. So much is synergistic with players. The up tempo Warrior style that relies on passing and movement allows a player like Ball to help a team a lot. Because there is no consensus #1, it is harder to judge the potential upside in many players. This is why I'd like the Warriors to trade down and maximize the assets they will get. It really makes sense in this case. Can't wait to see what deals will be offered. Draft can't happen soon enough as my Dodgers won't be playing for months and I will need some entertainment in the meantime!
I can sympathize with your desire to find something meaningful here but the intangibles still are very influential when it comes to players fitting in with others. Synergistics are an important element in a basketball team. Chemistry is not measured. It is a result of things not known exactly. We can surmise. I think you are trying a bit too hard to make your formula work. But that is what people tend to do.
Fascinating analysis. Love that NBA Playoffs numbers are separate from, and more predictive of higher numbers in the NBA regular season, than NBA regular season numbers themselves. That's good to know.
I also wonder how the comparisons will change over time. Presumably, the NCAA's ranking may change when the NBA rules allow draftees right out of high school again, since fewer top young prospects are spending an extra year in college just because they have to.
Yeah, my folk explanation for the NBA Playoffs thing is that it accounts for the theorized "empty numbers on bad teams" problem.
Good point about the NCAA and zero-and-done. This kind of study should probably be done properly every ten years or so anyway. On the other hand, it's a pretty rough comparison, which is why I went with Tiers
I suspect it's more about racking up the score *against* bad teams. The playoffs have very few bad teams and no meaningless games, so you'll have very few opportunities to pile up stats that don't really "matter" or just feast on terrible, tanking opponents. (I'm not sure how much garbage time playoff games get on average, but it can't be more than regular season games.)
Any player who gets good numbers against a good team in a win-or-go-home game/series is likely to be able to put up as good or better numbers against weaker competition in less important games.
The only exception I can think of is guys who've already reached the pinnacle and just don't care about getting big scores in meaningless games: guys who know they can and should coast in the regular season to preserve their form for when the games really count. That includes people like Iguodala, Draymond, Lebron, probably KD, Kawhi, etc. I bet those guys' playoff scores are less predictive of their regular season scores than most guys'. Fortunately for these purposes, almost by definition, none of those guys are going to be draft prospects.
Kwahi load manages half of the year. KD wasnt necessarily producing in the playoffs in okc. His efficiency declined during the playoffs while in okc. Im sure the okc media that named him MR Unreliable had a congent reason for that. Im surprised how after joining a great team he started producing awesome playoff performances and people forgot that he spent 9yrs in okc with just 1 finals appearance and a devastating 1-4 loss in that final..
Cosidering Deni some comparisons:
Mario Hezonja Barcelona Elite
Džanan Musa Cedevita Elite*
Alen Smail SC G-League
Chris Boucher Missasauga G-League
Džanan Musa Long Island G-League*
Cam Reddish Duke Top NCAA
DeAndre Hunter VA Top NCAA
Kevin Knox KY Top NCAA
Deyonta Davis MI State Top NCAA
This is so great, Eric.
I like to play variations on this game. Say Chino Hills vs Guangdong Southern Tigers. Santa Cruz Warriors vs Real Madrid.
Curious where you would rate my "Over 40- Under 6 foot Co-ed Rec League experience"? I averaged a solid 3.2/0/4 one season. That's got to be on par with at least a "Christmas Day/Late Game between two underachieving teams" type of intensity right?
This gets its own tier called Fun As Hell But Zero NBA Prospects Tier. Have fun in your FAHBZNP Tier!
FAHBZNP SMOY 2021!
This is what gives me qualms about Avdija; in the Euroleague, he wasn't especially good. If he is an elite prospect, it doesn't show up in the stats.
If we can believe anything that reports say, Avdija left a big impression on the Warrior staff who watched him workout for them.
There’s been discussion about them being really impressed with just about every one of the top prospects. Most of these are probably smoke screens. They want teams to worry that the Warriors might take “their guy”, so have to consider trading with them.
They were reportedly impressed by Edwards and Wiseman too and I could see them picking either of those guys with the 2nd pick, but if they really have an interest in Avdija, it's because they think they can get him by trading down.
Trading down is probably the best option. We could then pick up another asset from our trading partner ala Mitch Robinson, plus the pick. But the trade down would only happen if there were more than 1 choice that the Warriors had settled on as there would be no guarantee that any of them would still be on the board by the time they picked. Realistically, Ball & Wiseman should be gone after the 4th pick. There are still some very good choices that could be waiting for us. I think it would be a well chosen gamble unless the 'guy' they really want would only be at or near the top.
I think the way this usually works is you pick the guy you think is most coveted and make a draft day trade if somebody has a lower pick and another asset that you like. Worst case, there is no good trade to be had and you have a guy that you thought was the best available player.
So this means you now have "adjustment factor" formulas to convert season stats for any league to the expected equivalent stats for any other league, right? ;)
Sure, you just multiply every stat by 0.6. Easy peasy.
;)
"0.6, it's not just for converting kilometers to miles :)"
That low ranking for the ABL is what I don't get about all the Ball hype. Even within the context of a generally softer field of competition, his numbers weren't that great. Some people who have looked a lot closer than I have don't seem very concerned by it though so I wonder what I'm missing here.
yep it's the NBL, not ABL, but it's a pretty good standard, often underestimated. Many solid NBA players have had stints in the league, even in their prime. Joe Ingles for example had 3 or 4 seasons averaging only 13ppg. Still a pretty decent NBA player.
I only see stats for Ingles in Liga/Euroleague/Olympics, and while he did only average 12.5ppg he did it w/ solid efficiency (.563/.351/.739) vs Ball (.458/.250/.723)
Can't compare Olympic later-career Ingles with First year pro Lamelo.
My point was just highlighting that the NBL is a decent standard. It's physical and underrated.
Ah my bad... I see on wikipedia he did play in the NBL.. wonder why it's not on bbref
46/31/75 were his first year splits in the NBL.
Not that diff to Lamelo
Yeh three seasons. All good.
Ball is a work in progress. If they feel his potential is high, it wouldn't ultimately matter what league he is playing in. Fit, athleticism, and skill, cannot be measured with any of these stats.
> Fit, athleticism, and skill, cannot be measured...
What? Athleticism and skill are extremely measurable.
But end of day, I'm fully trusting whatever the front office does. Lots of uncertainty in any draft, and moreso this year than any other. I do not envy the decision makers right now! There's so much pressure to get this offseason right
How about the rest of the sentence that qualifies the statement. 'with any of these stats'. What is the stat that shows how a player 'fits' into a lineup? Where is the measurement stat for athleticism? Where is the stat for skill?
I think Ball's 7.9 assists w/ 2.7 ast/TO ratio shows that he's a skilled passer, and his .250 3P% on 6.7 attempts per game show that he's not a skilled shooter...
exactly, I don't know if he/she is trolling, or legitimately doesn't agree that stats are reflections of things like skill and athleticism. Fit can be predicted based off strengths and weaknesses of players and the team that they are going to land with... Sure, it's not a box score level analysis, but there is definitely useful information in the stats.
We get combine measurements and there are speed stats widely available.
But the broader point is that you can for sure infer something off of statistical data, it's the reason why people even care to look at those numbers - it's meaningful.
Yes, stats are meaningful but not conclusive. Just look at DLO. He had all the stats and now he plays for the Wolves.
I agree, but few prospects are at their peak and the really good ones will have upside. Upside is the gamble, no? His brother improved his shooting a lot after he left the Lakers. So much is synergistic with players. The up tempo Warrior style that relies on passing and movement allows a player like Ball to help a team a lot. Because there is no consensus #1, it is harder to judge the potential upside in many players. This is why I'd like the Warriors to trade down and maximize the assets they will get. It really makes sense in this case. Can't wait to see what deals will be offered. Draft can't happen soon enough as my Dodgers won't be playing for months and I will need some entertainment in the meantime!
To me it means, imagine Ball is playing that way with those stats and that vision etc in the top NCAA conferences.
I can sympathize with your desire to find something meaningful here but the intangibles still are very influential when it comes to players fitting in with others. Synergistics are an important element in a basketball team. Chemistry is not measured. It is a result of things not known exactly. We can surmise. I think you are trying a bit too hard to make your formula work. But that is what people tend to do.
Fascinating analysis. Love that NBA Playoffs numbers are separate from, and more predictive of higher numbers in the NBA regular season, than NBA regular season numbers themselves. That's good to know.
I also wonder how the comparisons will change over time. Presumably, the NCAA's ranking may change when the NBA rules allow draftees right out of high school again, since fewer top young prospects are spending an extra year in college just because they have to.
Yeah, my folk explanation for the NBA Playoffs thing is that it accounts for the theorized "empty numbers on bad teams" problem.
Good point about the NCAA and zero-and-done. This kind of study should probably be done properly every ten years or so anyway. On the other hand, it's a pretty rough comparison, which is why I went with Tiers
Two other things that make the NBA playoffs better:
1. Shorter rotations mean better players always on the floor
2. Rookies have an entire season under their belt, so presumably have improved
I suspect it's more about racking up the score *against* bad teams. The playoffs have very few bad teams and no meaningless games, so you'll have very few opportunities to pile up stats that don't really "matter" or just feast on terrible, tanking opponents. (I'm not sure how much garbage time playoff games get on average, but it can't be more than regular season games.)
Any player who gets good numbers against a good team in a win-or-go-home game/series is likely to be able to put up as good or better numbers against weaker competition in less important games.
The only exception I can think of is guys who've already reached the pinnacle and just don't care about getting big scores in meaningless games: guys who know they can and should coast in the regular season to preserve their form for when the games really count. That includes people like Iguodala, Draymond, Lebron, probably KD, Kawhi, etc. I bet those guys' playoff scores are less predictive of their regular season scores than most guys'. Fortunately for these purposes, almost by definition, none of those guys are going to be draft prospects.
Lebron, KD, & Kawhi produce throughout the year and don't only get up for the playoffs.
Kwahi load manages half of the year. KD wasnt necessarily producing in the playoffs in okc. His efficiency declined during the playoffs while in okc. Im sure the okc media that named him MR Unreliable had a congent reason for that. Im surprised how after joining a great team he started producing awesome playoff performances and people forgot that he spent 9yrs in okc with just 1 finals appearance and a devastating 1-4 loss in that final..