With all this talent and potential in this draft I dont see why they would trade the picks, moody seems about as perfect as a pick possible for the warriors at 7 and has high upside the help the franchise for years. Wiseman was the pick they should have traded especially knowing they had Minnesota's pick coming
They probably won't trade the picks unless they can swing a deal that they can't pass up.
JW will probably develop slowly, but maybe with a little luck, they can accelerate this. Just think about the possibility of him doing more than he showed last season. It's not too much to hope for and with his skillset and athleticism, can help the team a lot even if he is relegated to the bench. He is a valuable asset and they will not lose on this pick. He can be traded if needs be, but there is no reason to do so unless a team offers something very tangible for the 'win-now' mindset. The Warriors are not in desparation mode.
Yeah, I don't eat the Warriors PR often, but I really believe them when they say they'd prefer to trade the picks for an established vet that can help right away. But knowing that deal is super unlikely, gimme a couple of high ceiling development players that can develop over the next couple seasons
Is this draft so great though? I don't know, I see significant holes in all the prospects.
Barnes: Cannot shoot. Cannot score at all, period. Will probably be a significant offensive drain to high-level teams in the playoffs.
Kuminga: Everything? I just don't see what he does really well right now. I guess he's got an NBA body and the tools to be good but I just don't see his basketball skill. I think Sleepy said this about Oubre but I think it applies - he's an athlete, not a basketball player.
Sengun: Really poor footspeed, no scheme versatility, unproven shooting (though I'd be shocked if he didn't turn into a shooter). If his 60th/70th percentile outcome is Sabonis, how useful is that to a championship calibre team? With Sengun, you're pretty much chasing outliers and betting that IQ and skill will make up for athletic deficiencies (which is definitely possible). He is an outlier based on his production up till now, but is he gonna continue that trend in the NBA?
Moody: One of the best options. The 2 big concerns - not much of a playmaker, and lack of athleticism really hurts him. He's slow - I don't know how valuable a slow perimeter defender can be considering the demands most switching (and scrambling schemes) place on today's defenders. His pullup shooting and FTr is really encouraging though.
Mitchell: Oooh boy, loads here. Shooting is a concern, length and height is a concern. Age is a concern. Don't see the upside at all. If his shooting isn't real, he's a terrible bust. If his shooting is real, I don't know how valuable a 6 ft guard can be defensively anyway.
Bouknight: Oubre like tunnel vision offensively means he'll never be a lead primary initiator on a good team. I think he profiles much better as a role-player who moves off ball, provides spacing and makes good defensive decisions rather than an on-ball playmaking phenom. Still, he has tangible limitations - no playmaking, shooting is sketchy.
Wagner: One of the best options - he doesn't have too many holes. He's like Nic Batum, and don't get me wrong, Batum's a really good player. But is that really the outcome you're hoping for from a #7 (or even #14) pick? Seems pretty un-sexy. He does bring PNR creation though which might hint at hidden upside.
Giddey: Can't shoot, can't really defend, athleticism is sub-par.
Jalen Johnson: Can't shoot, attitude concerns.
Keon Johnson: Athlete not player. Don't really know what sort of skills he brings to the table.
Ziaire Williams: Height and measurables are all well and good, but this is still nearly a 20 year old guy who averaged 14, 6 and 3 (per 36) on 47% TS in college. At some point, basketball skill has to come into it, right?
Kispert/Murphy/Duarte: They'll be solid NBA pros and useful rotation players in the regular season (and maybe the playoffs too). But that's probably it for these guys. Can't justify that at #7 probably.
Garuba: He's this year's Okongwu. Pretty much certain to be a really good, switchable defender. Not much more than that though. Offense is a pretty big concern, though his shot's definitely not hopeless. Not a bad pick for #14 though.
Did I cover all of it? I like Sharife Cooper (now he is a guy who has high-level upside) but we're almost certainly not in for him (plus it's a low probability bet anyway).
My own personal philosophy is draft high-skill guys over high-athleticism guys so 2 of Sengun/Moody/Barnes/Wagner/Kispert/Duarte/Garuba is a pretty good draft (bonus if we're able to grab a shooter like Hauser by buying a second rounder) imo. But I don't see a reasonably high-star potential for any of those guys (close to none in the case of Kispert and Duarte) which is what I'm looking for in lottery picks.
To be fair, it's hard to get high-potential guys at #7 or #14. Hopefully Myers pulls a rabbit out of the hat.
We're on the same page regarding Moody and Wagner being the top two targets for the Warriors, hope they work Wagner out. I'd say that Moody's 7'1 wingspan will help him a lot on the perimeter, he can give guys more room to prevent against their drives and still challenge their shots. Regarding Wagner, one source of upside I don't see people mentioning is his potential to play some 5.
Also, I think you covered the candidates for the #7 pick well but at #14 I think they could easily pick a guy who the mocks don't have in that range. That's what they did when they drafted Poole and he worked out which will probably embolden them. But maybe I'm just saying that because I want to believe Christopher and Springer are in the mix at #14.
To me the key is what does “worth it at #7” mean? If you can’t get something good in trade for #7, then by definition, it’s worth making the pick, and SOMEBODY has to go #7. So if we make the pick, I don’t worry much about what’s worth a #7 pick. I’d be deliriously happy if we got Nic Batum at #7. Pretty much if we get a player who can someday become a starter someday, that’s a big win for me.
In terms of value, I agree with you (especially someone like Wagner who can feasibly play playoff minutes very soon). It's just unglamorous lol. The consensus has been that it's an incredible draft for so long, but now that I'm examining the draft myself I really don't see it (at the top or in the middle).
For sure the top 4 is rare. Cade, Green, Mobley, and Suggs is just a very high floor group of guys with high upside. Most drafts do not have the GM's and fans of those teams feeling this good.
Barnes and Kuminga are rare physical tools wings even though they have the very not rare thing of "can they shoot"?
So I think the top is great. Where we are at 7-14 isn't "great", but I think it's good. You can take a safe swing on some guys projecting to be very good starters or it's pretty thick with guys "who could be stars if...". There's a path to doing extremely well.
I don't think the top 4 is that great. Cade I understand (and even he isn't exactly a Zion/Ja/Luka level prospect going back to 2019 or 2018), but all of Suggs, Green and Mobley have question marks too.
I had expected something like 2018 with Luka/Trae and JJJ (I still believe lol) being at the top of the draft and SGA/MPJ being in the mid-lottery.
I don't have any questions on Green, Mobley, and Suggs. They're studs. Pretty sure the GM's and fans of teams sitting 1-4 are feeling absolutely great.
2018 is hard to compare to because Luka should've been the easy and clear #1 both then and now, and MPJ was this other potential #1 pick who had back injury. So those two caveats aside, I think the top 15 is very similar. 2021 probably won't work out as good but it could.
2019 is an easier comp. Zion would be #1 in either draft, but 2021 has a better 2-6. Even including Ja. I think I'd take at least Green and Mobley over him at the time. Most drafts you have to take a DeAndre Hunter at 4 for high floor/fit. Or take a swing at #5 with Darius Garland having played 5 games (swing looks good!). Or talk yourself into Jarrett Culver at 6.
It’s a good point. There are a whole bunch of guys I think of as “okay at #14, not so much at #7,” so maybe I should just be happy with one of them at #7.
And the one nominal top five guy who could potentially slide to #7 is Kuminga, whom I don’t really want, so…
This is what Kawakami said yesterday in a tweet. Basically whoever we take at 7 will feel like a reach, and whoever we take at 14 will feel like a steal.
I agree that it’s real interesting how there’s pretty big question marks on all the guys. It’s just all about how you weight the upside vs downside and belief in the player to answer the question.
Fair point. I think last year there was a lot more unknown in the top prospects. Ball playing 12ish games in Australia. 3 games of Wiseman. Edwards was a rare athlete with flashes. It wasn't really a skill question more like "He can shoot. Can he figure out even somewhat reasonable shot selection and learn winning basketball?" I actually had no questions on Okongwu, or Vassell skills-wise. That was a question on upside.
This year there's a couple of those guys Moody and Wagner who I think most people feel fine about, but question the upside.
But most of the guys in the debate have a pretty defined skill hole question. Can Giddey or Mitchell shoot? Can Bouknight learn to pass? Can Sengun's size/athleticism translate? Because if the answer is no on any of these, it's fairly limiting.
So you're right, there's always questions. It just feels like this year's are pretty specific.
“Can Moody learn to pass?” Is another question I have. After getting wildly overhyped about the signing of Oubre, I don’t want to underestimate the importance of wing passing in Kerr-ball.
Our only wing who is allowed to be a mediocre/unwilling passer is Klay. :-)
Moody played with Cade, Barnes and Day'Ron Sharpe at Montverde in high school. (Had to have been one of the great high school squads ever). Cade and Barnes obviously well known as very high IQ passing prospects. Sharpe is this big bruising C, who's main feature is that he's a really good passer.
Doesn't necessarily mean anything. But seems good he played with all these really great passers.
Personally not that worried about it for Moody or Bouknight. Both seem to have a good feel for the game and are very decisive. They've just been decisive in getting to their shot as lead scorer. They can learn the reads.
Both have averaged more assists than Oubre has in 8 seasons of college and pro basketball.
Good thoughts. Maybe a bit heavy on the "cons," but I share many of your concerns and preferences.
I recently opined on another board that I'd be happy — perhaps not *thrilled* but happy — with a draft haul of Wagner + Duarte. Neither jumps off the page/screen, but they're probably the two most bulletproof players in the draft (after #4) in that both can shoot, shoot FTs, pass, rebound, and defend multiple positions at a high level; and both have reps as uber high-character, high IQ dudes who will work their asses off to improve and fit in Kerr-Adams' system. And Wagner is still super-young (a month younger than Scottie Barnes, despite spending an extra year in college) so there could easily be some upside with him. Much better rebounder than Barnes, too.
As an added bonus in the Sleepy household... two of my closest friends at the office, who always hang out together, are named Wagner and Duarte. Would be fun to email them that post-draft headline. :-)
Shooting is the name of the game in today's NBA; and lack thereof is the single biggest reason the Warriors plummeted from an all-time great offense to worst in the league two years ago, and #19 last season. Thompson + Mills + Love + (two of Wagner, Moody, Duarte) gets us back on top of the shooting heap.
Yeah! Why spend time providing detailed, fact-based analysis when he can regale the board with keen insights like “they probably won't trade the picks unless they can swing a deal that they can't pass up.” ;-P
With all of the popular sports critics and writers out there, is anyone keeping track of the accuracy of these sites comparing their mock drafts with the actual outcomes?
“Remember that some draft analysts make their picks based on who they feel teams should pick, while many base their picks on who teams are learning towards picking based on intel from agents, scouts and front office executives.”
Josh Christopher film session with Schmitz came out today. Currently my favorite for the #14 pick assuming guys like Wagner and Giddey are gone, although it changes every week lol. Watching this interview, not only does he kinda play like Anthony Edwards, but he seems to have a fun-loving personality like Edwards as well.
End of this Draymond Green soundbite on the Warriors' upcoming offseason decisions: "There's definitely some really good talent in this draft...There's also some good talent in this league. So we'll see what happens."
“The Warriors are definitely open to trading out of the draft, and with picks 7 and 14, they may be able to get what they covet in return: a youngish starter who can help the team compete right away.”
[Lotourneau]According to a league source, the Warriors’ “Plan A” is to package the Nos. 7 and 14 selections for a starting-caliber player in his prime.
Hollinger posted an article on the Athletic, estimating what his analytics suggest players should get as FAs this year per season. Notably it suggested Danny Green the 8th most valuable at $19 M. Patty Mills, Otto Porter, Nic Batum, Doug McDermott, and notably, Kelly Oubre did not make the top 25 players and are valued at less than $11.5M. The dream is still alive for those players.
Love these. Beyond the fabulously detailed and clear writing, you always seem to arrive at the same top choices I have. Patty Mills and Otto Porter have been atop my list forever. Which of the two I would pick with my one MLE is a tougher call.
One quibble: I’m not sure Otto Porter and a few others on this list are any more or less “wing” than Nic Batum. There are so many guys who skirt the ephemeral line between 3 and 4 (LeBron, KD, Kawhi, PG, Siakam, Porter, Batum, etc. etc.) that It might be simpler just to call them all “big wings,” while calling the 2-3 types — basically the guys 6’-6” and under — “small wings.”
But I know the grey areas are unavoidable when grouping guys by position…
I'm also impressed with Perks. While I've also loved Mills/Porter (particularly Mills, who would be a fantastic fit), I've also been pounding the table for Sterling Brown.
To put it simply, he's an absolutely fantastic multi positional defender (led the league in defensive rating) who shot over 40% from three last year.
Nepotism aside, DLee was fantastic last year, too.
Still feel like we *might* have beaten Toronto in 2019 if Mr. Sydel hadn’t been foolishly left off the postseason roster. We went into the playoffs with literally no backup SG. Which of course made total sense because Klay was an indestructible iron man. :,-(
I know you’ve been a Lee a supporter forever, and I maintain it would have been a different story if Lee had been available when they were running that 7-man rotation down the stretch. (I’d have him above Bazemore on my depth chart.)
I’d always thought of him as a finesse guy, but last season he seemed more bad ass on defense. He even picked up a couple of flagrants.
I actually still owe this site a Lee season review...
He was shockingly impactful, but the way Poole came on at the end may have made Lee's good season mostly a moot point. I think they've got to bring him back, just as a non-disaster affordable contract player that knows the system and can shoot a bit
I agree with you Goofus. I love Bazemore and I think his impact is arguably as high or higher than some of those guys, but you also get reliable negative effects with him that you don't with Lee, Poole and JTA.
Eh, there are negatives that Poole and JTA give you that you don't get with Bazemore. Also Poole is more of a guard and JTA is more of a big imo.
Lee and Bazemore are definitely competing for minutes but I dunno, I think both guys are good players and this team needs as many good players as they can get right now.
We need lots of wings though. We don't know when Klay comes back, but it is for sure not at the beginning of the season.
Just doing the basic depth chart, I think we have a solid 10 or 11 player rotation as a starting point. The question for me in the FA market for any new wing player is if they can outplay Baze/Lee/Klay
Any 2/3 of Bazemore/Green/OPJ/Hood/Bullock would be really nice. Can never have too many wings. Hood might also bring some shot-creation which our bench units could really use.
How about we sign him to a contract, have him show up for practice and the entire DNHQ crew will come out of nowhere to undercut him on his first layup attempt. If that doesn't work we can just break his kneecap like Sleepy suggested too. Either is fine. Worth all of the money in the world.
While we're at it, how about a nice round of nad kicks for our beloved ABC crew who spent 30 minutes talking about how that first injury was Klay's fault?
This is a much more exciting list than the guards, especially since it doesn't even include Batum.
Porter if attainable would be awesome. I think he could look at the Warriors on a one year deal and think he could rebuild some value.
Bullock if attainable, also awesome. I think he's one of the more underrated players in the league. He's got nice size, decent defender and can shoot 3's at volume over 40%.
Lastly, Hood would be a perfect fit on the roster. He'd actually be close to ideal because he's a pretty skilled ballhandler. He could be a co-focal point with Poole on that 2nd unit offense and fit in lineups with pretty much anyone on the roster.
Mostly pipe dreams regarding Porter. DLee is as good as Bullock or Hood if he was given the playing time. Plug in a draft pick who adds scoring and use the MLE for a big. Wings are a dime a dozen. Look at all we had and it came to naught. Poole and DLee can be difference makers. Add a couple of bigs to them + GP2 and we've got a bench that can play D.
As a side note - Leave Jessup another year in Australia. No rush. Let him spend another year building up his body, working on athleticism and building out a more well-rounded game amongst adult pro's. Win-Win. Think it's better for his development and better for Warriors to save the roster spot.
Especially because Jessup can't be put on a two-way contract. Once I learned that, I figured he was out of the picture until 2022-2023 at earliest. And honestly, he needs to show more than 34% from three in the NBL.
So, the NBL season ends in the spring right? If Jessup balls out next season is there any technical hurdle to bringing him in as a late season roster addition?
Also nice article, obviously Otto Porter is the dream but I think realistically it's bringing back Baze + a guy from the T2-3 range that'll end up happening. Ariza would be a nice add for bench depth.
We only have two legit big men, JW & Looney. Really only one developed big man. I think we need to sign a big FA, or bring up Kaleb Wesson from the gleague. That guy is at least serviceable and will give us some assurance in the paint. Or, Henry Ellenson, one of the top big men in the gleague for Toronto. Affordable and absolute insurance for injury of either our incumbent bigs. I'm tired of these re-tread guards. We've got shooters in DLee and Poole and we'll get some more scoring from the draft picks and hopefully JW.
Was there ever any FO comments about him specifically? Seems like a perfect player to bring in at the end of the season. I know all the reasons they stated for sitting on their hands, but did GRIII really fall off so fast that he couldn't crack that end of season 8-man rotation?
Don't think they ever commented. There was this though in response to a question about if Burks or GRIII would return right after they got traded:
> I doubt Alec Burks comes back, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Glenn Robinson III returns. I was told that the Warriors were more upset about losing Robinson than they were any of the five other players traded before the deadline. That speaks to the respect he commanded throughout that locker room as a leader and role player.
> Robinson told me about a month ago that, if necessary, he’d be willing to return to the Warriors on a minimum contract this summer. He appreciated Golden State for believing in him at a time when few teams did, and he wanted to be around to see this season’s adversity hopefully give way to legitimate contention next season.
I'm sure that will be taken care of. In the meantime you can NEVER have enough shooters. We pretty much only have 8 guys guaranteed to make the roster in Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Wiseman, Draymond, Looney, JTA and Poole. That leaves 7 spots to fill out. The 2 draftees would consume 2 and ideally we come out of FA with another wing shooter, ball handler and backup big. The remaining 2 roster spots can be used to retain Bazemore and keeping Damion on board.
I like Chriss, but I think a 4th big would be nice as insurance in that case.
Though, I guess could fulfill that by buying one of the Thunder or Pelican's many 2nd round picks and grabbing JT Thor or Charles Bassey on a two-way deal.
**** Danny Green. Bullock or Otto would be nice and I'd take on GRlll to replace Baze if he doesn't come back. I forget GRlll is still young because I keep on thinking of him as a vet on the tail end of his career.
With all this talent and potential in this draft I dont see why they would trade the picks, moody seems about as perfect as a pick possible for the warriors at 7 and has high upside the help the franchise for years. Wiseman was the pick they should have traded especially knowing they had Minnesota's pick coming
There weren't a lot of teams looking to move up in last year's draft. The offers were meh.
They probably won't trade the picks unless they can swing a deal that they can't pass up.
JW will probably develop slowly, but maybe with a little luck, they can accelerate this. Just think about the possibility of him doing more than he showed last season. It's not too much to hope for and with his skillset and athleticism, can help the team a lot even if he is relegated to the bench. He is a valuable asset and they will not lose on this pick. He can be traded if needs be, but there is no reason to do so unless a team offers something very tangible for the 'win-now' mindset. The Warriors are not in desparation mode.
Yeah, I don't eat the Warriors PR often, but I really believe them when they say they'd prefer to trade the picks for an established vet that can help right away. But knowing that deal is super unlikely, gimme a couple of high ceiling development players that can develop over the next couple seasons
Is this draft so great though? I don't know, I see significant holes in all the prospects.
Barnes: Cannot shoot. Cannot score at all, period. Will probably be a significant offensive drain to high-level teams in the playoffs.
Kuminga: Everything? I just don't see what he does really well right now. I guess he's got an NBA body and the tools to be good but I just don't see his basketball skill. I think Sleepy said this about Oubre but I think it applies - he's an athlete, not a basketball player.
Sengun: Really poor footspeed, no scheme versatility, unproven shooting (though I'd be shocked if he didn't turn into a shooter). If his 60th/70th percentile outcome is Sabonis, how useful is that to a championship calibre team? With Sengun, you're pretty much chasing outliers and betting that IQ and skill will make up for athletic deficiencies (which is definitely possible). He is an outlier based on his production up till now, but is he gonna continue that trend in the NBA?
Moody: One of the best options. The 2 big concerns - not much of a playmaker, and lack of athleticism really hurts him. He's slow - I don't know how valuable a slow perimeter defender can be considering the demands most switching (and scrambling schemes) place on today's defenders. His pullup shooting and FTr is really encouraging though.
Mitchell: Oooh boy, loads here. Shooting is a concern, length and height is a concern. Age is a concern. Don't see the upside at all. If his shooting isn't real, he's a terrible bust. If his shooting is real, I don't know how valuable a 6 ft guard can be defensively anyway.
Bouknight: Oubre like tunnel vision offensively means he'll never be a lead primary initiator on a good team. I think he profiles much better as a role-player who moves off ball, provides spacing and makes good defensive decisions rather than an on-ball playmaking phenom. Still, he has tangible limitations - no playmaking, shooting is sketchy.
Wagner: One of the best options - he doesn't have too many holes. He's like Nic Batum, and don't get me wrong, Batum's a really good player. But is that really the outcome you're hoping for from a #7 (or even #14) pick? Seems pretty un-sexy. He does bring PNR creation though which might hint at hidden upside.
Giddey: Can't shoot, can't really defend, athleticism is sub-par.
Jalen Johnson: Can't shoot, attitude concerns.
Keon Johnson: Athlete not player. Don't really know what sort of skills he brings to the table.
Ziaire Williams: Height and measurables are all well and good, but this is still nearly a 20 year old guy who averaged 14, 6 and 3 (per 36) on 47% TS in college. At some point, basketball skill has to come into it, right?
Kispert/Murphy/Duarte: They'll be solid NBA pros and useful rotation players in the regular season (and maybe the playoffs too). But that's probably it for these guys. Can't justify that at #7 probably.
Garuba: He's this year's Okongwu. Pretty much certain to be a really good, switchable defender. Not much more than that though. Offense is a pretty big concern, though his shot's definitely not hopeless. Not a bad pick for #14 though.
Did I cover all of it? I like Sharife Cooper (now he is a guy who has high-level upside) but we're almost certainly not in for him (plus it's a low probability bet anyway).
My own personal philosophy is draft high-skill guys over high-athleticism guys so 2 of Sengun/Moody/Barnes/Wagner/Kispert/Duarte/Garuba is a pretty good draft (bonus if we're able to grab a shooter like Hauser by buying a second rounder) imo. But I don't see a reasonably high-star potential for any of those guys (close to none in the case of Kispert and Duarte) which is what I'm looking for in lottery picks.
To be fair, it's hard to get high-potential guys at #7 or #14. Hopefully Myers pulls a rabbit out of the hat.
We're on the same page regarding Moody and Wagner being the top two targets for the Warriors, hope they work Wagner out. I'd say that Moody's 7'1 wingspan will help him a lot on the perimeter, he can give guys more room to prevent against their drives and still challenge their shots. Regarding Wagner, one source of upside I don't see people mentioning is his potential to play some 5.
Also, I think you covered the candidates for the #7 pick well but at #14 I think they could easily pick a guy who the mocks don't have in that range. That's what they did when they drafted Poole and he worked out which will probably embolden them. But maybe I'm just saying that because I want to believe Christopher and Springer are in the mix at #14.
I'm still a Sengun guy lol (he has incredible strengths). I just also know that he has significant flaws.
But yeah, after Sengun I have Wagner and Moody (in that order).
Oh word. Yeah I like Sengun, if he or Giddey are called at 7 I could live with it as well even though I'd have them a tier below the other two.
I'm firmly in "anybody but Mitchell" territory, although I'd be kinda disappointed if they took Bouknight too.
I could see Trey Murphy at #14 as well.
100%, they are working him out today. Another upperclassman they are working out today is Ayo Dosunmu (and the aforementioned Kispert and Duarte).
To me the key is what does “worth it at #7” mean? If you can’t get something good in trade for #7, then by definition, it’s worth making the pick, and SOMEBODY has to go #7. So if we make the pick, I don’t worry much about what’s worth a #7 pick. I’d be deliriously happy if we got Nic Batum at #7. Pretty much if we get a player who can someday become a starter someday, that’s a big win for me.
In terms of value, I agree with you (especially someone like Wagner who can feasibly play playoff minutes very soon). It's just unglamorous lol. The consensus has been that it's an incredible draft for so long, but now that I'm examining the draft myself I really don't see it (at the top or in the middle).
For sure the top 4 is rare. Cade, Green, Mobley, and Suggs is just a very high floor group of guys with high upside. Most drafts do not have the GM's and fans of those teams feeling this good.
Barnes and Kuminga are rare physical tools wings even though they have the very not rare thing of "can they shoot"?
So I think the top is great. Where we are at 7-14 isn't "great", but I think it's good. You can take a safe swing on some guys projecting to be very good starters or it's pretty thick with guys "who could be stars if...". There's a path to doing extremely well.
I don't think the top 4 is that great. Cade I understand (and even he isn't exactly a Zion/Ja/Luka level prospect going back to 2019 or 2018), but all of Suggs, Green and Mobley have question marks too.
I had expected something like 2018 with Luka/Trae and JJJ (I still believe lol) being at the top of the draft and SGA/MPJ being in the mid-lottery.
I don't have any questions on Green, Mobley, and Suggs. They're studs. Pretty sure the GM's and fans of teams sitting 1-4 are feeling absolutely great.
2018 is hard to compare to because Luka should've been the easy and clear #1 both then and now, and MPJ was this other potential #1 pick who had back injury. So those two caveats aside, I think the top 15 is very similar. 2021 probably won't work out as good but it could.
2019 is an easier comp. Zion would be #1 in either draft, but 2021 has a better 2-6. Even including Ja. I think I'd take at least Green and Mobley over him at the time. Most drafts you have to take a DeAndre Hunter at 4 for high floor/fit. Or take a swing at #5 with Darius Garland having played 5 games (swing looks good!). Or talk yourself into Jarrett Culver at 6.
I know, the draft got so much hype, but it’s no LeBron-Carmelo draft where you had two sure superstars
It’s a good point. There are a whole bunch of guys I think of as “okay at #14, not so much at #7,” so maybe I should just be happy with one of them at #7.
And the one nominal top five guy who could potentially slide to #7 is Kuminga, whom I don’t really want, so…
This is what Kawakami said yesterday in a tweet. Basically whoever we take at 7 will feel like a reach, and whoever we take at 14 will feel like a steal.
I agree that it’s real interesting how there’s pretty big question marks on all the guys. It’s just all about how you weight the upside vs downside and belief in the player to answer the question.
Aren’t there always. Last year, there were big question marks with all the top prospects.
Fair point. I think last year there was a lot more unknown in the top prospects. Ball playing 12ish games in Australia. 3 games of Wiseman. Edwards was a rare athlete with flashes. It wasn't really a skill question more like "He can shoot. Can he figure out even somewhat reasonable shot selection and learn winning basketball?" I actually had no questions on Okongwu, or Vassell skills-wise. That was a question on upside.
This year there's a couple of those guys Moody and Wagner who I think most people feel fine about, but question the upside.
But most of the guys in the debate have a pretty defined skill hole question. Can Giddey or Mitchell shoot? Can Bouknight learn to pass? Can Sengun's size/athleticism translate? Because if the answer is no on any of these, it's fairly limiting.
So you're right, there's always questions. It just feels like this year's are pretty specific.
“Can Moody learn to pass?” Is another question I have. After getting wildly overhyped about the signing of Oubre, I don’t want to underestimate the importance of wing passing in Kerr-ball.
Our only wing who is allowed to be a mediocre/unwilling passer is Klay. :-)
Moody played with Cade, Barnes and Day'Ron Sharpe at Montverde in high school. (Had to have been one of the great high school squads ever). Cade and Barnes obviously well known as very high IQ passing prospects. Sharpe is this big bruising C, who's main feature is that he's a really good passer.
Doesn't necessarily mean anything. But seems good he played with all these really great passers.
Personally not that worried about it for Moody or Bouknight. Both seem to have a good feel for the game and are very decisive. They've just been decisive in getting to their shot as lead scorer. They can learn the reads.
Both have averaged more assists than Oubre has in 8 seasons of college and pro basketball.
Good thoughts. Maybe a bit heavy on the "cons," but I share many of your concerns and preferences.
I recently opined on another board that I'd be happy — perhaps not *thrilled* but happy — with a draft haul of Wagner + Duarte. Neither jumps off the page/screen, but they're probably the two most bulletproof players in the draft (after #4) in that both can shoot, shoot FTs, pass, rebound, and defend multiple positions at a high level; and both have reps as uber high-character, high IQ dudes who will work their asses off to improve and fit in Kerr-Adams' system. And Wagner is still super-young (a month younger than Scottie Barnes, despite spending an extra year in college) so there could easily be some upside with him. Much better rebounder than Barnes, too.
As an added bonus in the Sleepy household... two of my closest friends at the office, who always hang out together, are named Wagner and Duarte. Would be fun to email them that post-draft headline. :-)
...
PG: Curry, Mills, Poole
Wings: Thompson, Wiggins, JTA, Lee, Wagner, Duarte, Baze
Bigs: Green, Looney, Wiseman, Love, Chriss
...
Shooting is the name of the game in today's NBA; and lack thereof is the single biggest reason the Warriors plummeted from an all-time great offense to worst in the league two years ago, and #19 last season. Thompson + Mills + Love + (two of Wagner, Moody, Duarte) gets us back on top of the shooting heap.
You must have eaten something bad to write this up. You are smarter than this.
Yeah! Why spend time providing detailed, fact-based analysis when he can regale the board with keen insights like “they probably won't trade the picks unless they can swing a deal that they can't pass up.” ;-P
With all of the popular sports critics and writers out there, is anyone keeping track of the accuracy of these sites comparing their mock drafts with the actual outcomes?
I’ve not seen anything really comprehensive, but little comparisons from time to time, like https://hoopsdistillery.com/?p=2206
Thanks, Eric.
ESPN 8 out of 14!
Vecenie 7 out of 14
The others need to get a real job. lol
Mock drafts are not necessarily predictions, and needn’t be judged as such.
Then, what would you say they were?
“Remember that some draft analysts make their picks based on who they feel teams should pick, while many base their picks on who teams are learning towards picking based on intel from agents, scouts and front office executives.”
And, you don't call these predictions?
Mock drafts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtDGzJwUF_o
Josh Christopher film session with Schmitz came out today. Currently my favorite for the #14 pick assuming guys like Wagner and Giddey are gone, although it changes every week lol. Watching this interview, not only does he kinda play like Anthony Edwards, but he seems to have a fun-loving personality like Edwards as well.
OT: # of comments from the last four diaries:
DubNationHQ: 197, 145, 188, 75 (and counting)
LGW: 0, 4, 1, 1
Significantly less close than Sengun v. Mitchell. :-)
I’m just glad there’s such good discussion here at DNHQ. I don’t mind if other places have lively discussion or not…
You're a good man.
I hold the same general sentiment, except when stealing is involved in the formation of those other places
Haven't you read the Book of St Draymond, "don't look in another man's pockets"?
I'm constantly learning and growing. Thanks for the help :)
What off-season? #Nodaysoff
Anthony Slater
@anthonyVslater
·
2h
End of this Draymond Green soundbite on the Warriors' upcoming offseason decisions: "There's definitely some really good talent in this draft...There's also some good talent in this league. So we'll see what happens."
A great non-answer
Sorry about that, but i thought it was important what Draymond is saying (or trying to say)
Chad Ford
@chadfordinsider
·
2h
Golden State is thinking trade:
“The Warriors are definitely open to trading out of the draft, and with picks 7 and 14, they may be able to get what they covet in return: a youngish starter who can help the team compete right away.”
-- NBA Big Board
[Lotourneau]According to a league source, the Warriors’ “Plan A” is to package the Nos. 7 and 14 selections for a starting-caliber player in his prime.
Hollinger posted an article on the Athletic, estimating what his analytics suggest players should get as FAs this year per season. Notably it suggested Danny Green the 8th most valuable at $19 M. Patty Mills, Otto Porter, Nic Batum, Doug McDermott, and notably, Kelly Oubre did not make the top 25 players and are valued at less than $11.5M. The dream is still alive for those players.
Bravo, Perks!
Love these. Beyond the fabulously detailed and clear writing, you always seem to arrive at the same top choices I have. Patty Mills and Otto Porter have been atop my list forever. Which of the two I would pick with my one MLE is a tougher call.
One quibble: I’m not sure Otto Porter and a few others on this list are any more or less “wing” than Nic Batum. There are so many guys who skirt the ephemeral line between 3 and 4 (LeBron, KD, Kawhi, PG, Siakam, Porter, Batum, etc. etc.) that It might be simpler just to call them all “big wings,” while calling the 2-3 types — basically the guys 6’-6” and under — “small wings.”
But I know the grey areas are unavoidable when grouping guys by position…
I'm also impressed with Perks. While I've also loved Mills/Porter (particularly Mills, who would be a fantastic fit), I've also been pounding the table for Sterling Brown.
To put it simply, he's an absolutely fantastic multi positional defender (led the league in defensive rating) who shot over 40% from three last year.
Sterling Brown led the league in defensive rating? When? He might be a fine fit, but am I missing something?
Whatever Reddit is paying this guy in karma points, we should double it for him to come over…damn the luxury tax.
Just be happy Perks is still contributing to us before The Athletic gobbles him up
He can be a Karma Chameleon... he comes and goes, comes and goes...
Well done. Also, I hate you.
Yeah, that one is hard to get rid of once it's started.
"Do you really want to hurt me?" -Abaddon to crusty quips
“Given Lee's production and fit on this team relative to his value, it is likely he will be on the roster next season.”
The key term being “relative”. Gotta keep the MacCurry Clan happy.
Nepotism aside, DLee was fantastic last year, too.
Still feel like we *might* have beaten Toronto in 2019 if Mr. Sydel hadn’t been foolishly left off the postseason roster. We went into the playoffs with literally no backup SG. Which of course made total sense because Klay was an indestructible iron man. :,-(
I know you’ve been a Lee a supporter forever, and I maintain it would have been a different story if Lee had been available when they were running that 7-man rotation down the stretch. (I’d have him above Bazemore on my depth chart.)
I’d always thought of him as a finesse guy, but last season he seemed more bad ass on defense. He even picked up a couple of flagrants.
I actually still owe this site a Lee season review...
He was shockingly impactful, but the way Poole came on at the end may have made Lee's good season mostly a moot point. I think they've got to bring him back, just as a non-disaster affordable contract player that knows the system and can shoot a bit
I think Lee, Poole and JTA make Baze expendable, especially if we get a wing like Bouknight/Moody/Duarte/Kispert in the draft.
I’m rather have an extra roster spot to carry both Chriss and Love.
Agreed. A wing draft pick, and a wing free agent who'd be an upgrade on Baze. I like Lee better than Baze and they're redundant.
I agree with you Goofus. I love Bazemore and I think his impact is arguably as high or higher than some of those guys, but you also get reliable negative effects with him that you don't with Lee, Poole and JTA.
Eh, there are negatives that Poole and JTA give you that you don't get with Bazemore. Also Poole is more of a guard and JTA is more of a big imo.
Lee and Bazemore are definitely competing for minutes but I dunno, I think both guys are good players and this team needs as many good players as they can get right now.
We need lots of wings though. We don't know when Klay comes back, but it is for sure not at the beginning of the season.
Just doing the basic depth chart, I think we have a solid 10 or 11 player rotation as a starting point. The question for me in the FA market for any new wing player is if they can outplay Baze/Lee/Klay
Curry / Poole
Baze / Lee / [new wing] / Klay when he's back
Wiggs / [?]
Green / JTA
Loon / Chriss / Wiseman
And oh yeah, I’m really enjoying this series.
Any 2/3 of Bazemore/Green/OPJ/Hood/Bullock would be really nice. Can never have too many wings. Hood might also bring some shot-creation which our bench units could really use.
I feel a strong "Not Danny Green, never Danny Green" streak in me.
How about we sign him to a contract, have him show up for practice and the entire DNHQ crew will come out of nowhere to undercut him on his first layup attempt. If that doesn't work we can just break his kneecap like Sleepy suggested too. Either is fine. Worth all of the money in the world.
I think Sleepy was speaking metaphorically. I think.
Ha, I think so too?
I mean, if breaking his kneecap would bring back the two seasons he stole from Klay, that I would do.
But since it won’t, I’d probably settle for a swift kick to the ‘nads. :-)
Draymond used to know how to deliver swift kicks to the 'nads. Not intentionally though.
While we're at it, how about a nice round of nad kicks for our beloved ABC crew who spent 30 minutes talking about how that first injury was Klay's fault?
Wow, didn't know. I never watch those games with the sound on.
It's settled then! I'll give Bob a call and tell him to get the "contract" ready for Danny Green.
No man, you don't call Myers for that kind of contract. You call Luca Brasi.
This is a much more exciting list than the guards, especially since it doesn't even include Batum.
Porter if attainable would be awesome. I think he could look at the Warriors on a one year deal and think he could rebuild some value.
Bullock if attainable, also awesome. I think he's one of the more underrated players in the league. He's got nice size, decent defender and can shoot 3's at volume over 40%.
Lastly, Hood would be a perfect fit on the roster. He'd actually be close to ideal because he's a pretty skilled ballhandler. He could be a co-focal point with Poole on that 2nd unit offense and fit in lineups with pretty much anyone on the roster.
All these guys are starter level players.
Mostly pipe dreams regarding Porter. DLee is as good as Bullock or Hood if he was given the playing time. Plug in a draft pick who adds scoring and use the MLE for a big. Wings are a dime a dozen. Look at all we had and it came to naught. Poole and DLee can be difference makers. Add a couple of bigs to them + GP2 and we've got a bench that can play D.
As a side note - Leave Jessup another year in Australia. No rush. Let him spend another year building up his body, working on athleticism and building out a more well-rounded game amongst adult pro's. Win-Win. Think it's better for his development and better for Warriors to save the roster spot.
Especially because Jessup can't be put on a two-way contract. Once I learned that, I figured he was out of the picture until 2022-2023 at earliest. And honestly, he needs to show more than 34% from three in the NBL.
So, the NBL season ends in the spring right? If Jessup balls out next season is there any technical hurdle to bringing him in as a late season roster addition?
Is Rudy Gay not a wing ?
Also nice article, obviously Otto Porter is the dream but I think realistically it's bringing back Baze + a guy from the T2-3 range that'll end up happening. Ariza would be a nice add for bench depth.
*just read the author's note, ignore the question at the beginning 😅
Love this series, Perks! Also, the list actually has some players I'm interested in signing.
For me, Baze first. He's a vet with an outside shot, and he knows the systems here.
Between Baze return and another drafted wong, I'm probably saving MLE for a big, unless one of the stretch targets somehow falls into our price range
Unfortunately, Isaiah Wong withdrew from the draft and returned to Miami.
Wong is busy fighting the Abomination
har har... lol no edit button, so mr. Wong stays I guess
beli channeling his inner Goofus
If bad puns are wong, I don’t want to B. Wright
Please D. Lee that.
We only have two legit big men, JW & Looney. Really only one developed big man. I think we need to sign a big FA, or bring up Kaleb Wesson from the gleague. That guy is at least serviceable and will give us some assurance in the paint. Or, Henry Ellenson, one of the top big men in the gleague for Toronto. Affordable and absolute insurance for injury of either our incumbent bigs. I'm tired of these re-tread guards. We've got shooters in DLee and Poole and we'll get some more scoring from the draft picks and hopefully JW.
There’s this Draymond guy…
Dray, Loon, JDub, Chriss is a decent big man core. Could use at least one legit stretch big, which is where Love comes in, if he can secure a buyout…
I hate Love. lol. MLE for Henry Ellenson. No re-treads for me.
I hope the team is as certain as we are that Chriss will be on the roster ;-)
I hope Marquese feels that way. We did trade him, after all...
I very much expect they have a wink wink deal to bring Chriss back.
That's what people said about GRIII.
Was there ever any FO comments about him specifically? Seems like a perfect player to bring in at the end of the season. I know all the reasons they stated for sitting on their hands, but did GRIII really fall off so fast that he couldn't crack that end of season 8-man rotation?
Don't think they ever commented. There was this though in response to a question about if Burks or GRIII would return right after they got traded:
> I doubt Alec Burks comes back, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Glenn Robinson III returns. I was told that the Warriors were more upset about losing Robinson than they were any of the five other players traded before the deadline. That speaks to the respect he commanded throughout that locker room as a leader and role player.
> Robinson told me about a month ago that, if necessary, he’d be willing to return to the Warriors on a minimum contract this summer. He appreciated Golden State for believing in him at a time when few teams did, and he wanted to be around to see this season’s adversity hopefully give way to legitimate contention next season.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/Warriors-mailbag-Andrew-Wiggins-long-term-15041196.php
Also an interview with GRIII a month after the trade where he explicitly said the organization was great to him and he wouldn't rule out a return.
I'm sure that will be taken care of. In the meantime you can NEVER have enough shooters. We pretty much only have 8 guys guaranteed to make the roster in Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Wiseman, Draymond, Looney, JTA and Poole. That leaves 7 spots to fill out. The 2 draftees would consume 2 and ideally we come out of FA with another wing shooter, ball handler and backup big. The remaining 2 roster spots can be used to retain Bazemore and keeping Damion on board.
Bullock, Burks and Chriss/Love (if bought out in time) for the FA haul anyone?
I like Chriss, but I think a 4th big would be nice as insurance in that case.
Though, I guess could fulfill that by buying one of the Thunder or Pelican's many 2nd round picks and grabbing JT Thor or Charles Bassey on a two-way deal.
I'm not sold on bringing Chriss back, but regardless, I bet the Warriors could sign Aron Baynes to a minimum as the "insurance big".
But I guess we should save that discussion for Free Agent Targets 3.
I know a guy named Chris Love. I could see if he's available (2 for the price of 1).
Assuming guys like Batum, Porter and the big names chases $$ elsewhere.
I want Batum to chase it with the Dubs.
OT: Wasn't McGruder the one that Klay and Draymond bullied last year? Lol he's never coming here. That was just plain old mean.
**** Danny Green. Bullock or Otto would be nice and I'd take on GRlll to replace Baze if he doesn't come back. I forget GRlll is still young because I keep on thinking of him as a vet on the tail end of his career.
How am I the first person to like this?