WARNING: Rambling DNHQ Slack transcript ahead
Call me crazy, but I think they win it all.
I like Ivan's points.
And the clear reference to Ricki Lee Jones' "Juke Box Fury" in the title. Great song off an underrated album.
Not that high on the offseason right now, personally. Will wait for the season to start before fully assessing it though.
Cleveland is acquiring Chicago restricted free agent F Lauri Markkanen on a four-year, $67M deal in a sign-and-trade, sources tell ESPN.
POR gets Nance Jr and CLE gets Derrick Jones Jr + picks
So when is Dame leaving? That roster is hopeless and is destined for a 2nd round exit at best. They need to admit they screwed up with trying to surround Dame with actual winning players. It's time to blow it up Sam Presti style and rebuild from scratch. They're just wasting everyone's time by keeping Dame around with that team and getting bounced early every year.
Imagine a death lineup of
Steph, Klay, Wiggs, Porter Jr. and Dray
If they're healthy that is just...scary
Not too worried about the grade. The Warriors are contenders next year if Klay is in form by playoff time. They have much better depth and lineup flexibility then last year.
Not enough credit given to OPJ and Bjelica signings. Injury factor is real, but upside of OPJ is HUGE. A difference maker. Bjelica has been an underrated player and fits perfectly with the current front court.
Key for the Warriors wa, IMO, Kerr/Myers getting a chance -- during the tail end of last year -- to see what a post-KD team should look like for the remainder of the Curry era. Thta allows them to craft a team around that vision.
Frankly, blessed with that vision earlier I don't think they take Wiseman, who can fit the new paradigm but isn't ideal. I must say, the 2020 draft choices weren't great for the Dubs. LaMelo was clearly the best player available, and the Warriors said as much leading to the draft, but he needs the ball in his hand and that really reduces Dray's role on offense. Since, as the Dubs stated at the time, Ball didn't fit with Dray, the better move might have been a trade down for another 2021 first while drafting Haliburton.
On Oubre, they were never going to resign a guy with limited fit for the new style for a big contract. He's a defender first and foremost who should never be more than a secondary offensive option on a team with a lot of shooters.
On the 2021 draft, both players fit the new paradigm and have tremendous long-term potential given their skill set and ages. I don't expect much from them for 2-3 seasons, but I could easily see Kuminga & Moody (along with Poole) becoming rotational pieces by the '23 season. Wiseman should be developed along the same timeline, through his value may ultimately come on the trade market.
FA, has to be taken with a massive grain of salt. As a hangover from 5 years of championship play (a price I'm fully prepared to pay), the Warriors have precisely zero flexibility in the FA market -- none. So, they got nothing last year. The W's did a lot better this year and may have hit some home runs if the OG's can stay healthy.
I think the staff additions are excellent.
Really really hard to grade this offseason as the evaluation is mostly based on what moves weren't made and what information fans do not have. For example:
- Was a Siakam or a Beal available? If so, at what price? This team's achilles heel might be their lack of shot creation sans Steph, especially against teams like the Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, Nets and Bucks who have multiple high-level shot creators.
- Evaluating the draft is always hard, but from an asset perspective they ended up doing pretty well. Still, I'd love to know whether they knew Moody was sliding at 14 or not. Would they have picked Kuminga at 7 if they didn't know that? They didn't pick Sengun or Garuba which hurt my soul though. They also weren't able to buy a second to get someone like Butler or Sharife at 40/48 which is nitpicking but should still be done. Imagine if we could have Butler or Cooper on a two-way rather than Chiozza, especially Butler as he might contribute as much as Chiozza this season.
- A++ for the coaching changes. It's pretty evident they failed on development last year, so definitely a positive step in recognizing that and filling the roles with top tier guys like Atkinson and Jama.
- FA was pretty disappointing for us, though I can't fault the FO too much for that. We went after the right guys in Batum, Mills and Gay but they just didn't choose us for various reasons. OPJ was a great get, I really like Bjelica as a stretch 5 and Andre is a good guy to have around the team. The big problems were not even getting a TPE for Oubre (that sort of flexibility would be incredibly useful for future trades) and not getting Bazemore to resign. They did offer Baze the money though, so not really their fault, it was just unfortunate. It does leave us short of POA defense though, unless Klay remains Klay defensively too which is a big burden to put on a guy coming off those injuries.
- One thing I really like is that there seems to be an understanding of how smallball is the way the Warriors win. Rather than getting 3-4 plodding Cs who take up roster space, we've decided to embrace our smallball identity which I love. Could use 1 big for the regular season though, but it's not really something to be concerned about until Looney picks up an injury and then we can simply sign Jordan Bell (or equivalent) on a two-way or a 10 day contract to fill up the minutes.
- Another huge positive is that they have finally finally emphasized shooting again. For so long, it seemed the Warriors had stopped valuing shooting in tertiary players because they had Steph, Klay and KD. Thankfully, they've rectified that this offseason. Now, the next hurdle they gotta clear is shot-creation.
Overall, a pretty solid offseason. I'd say a B or a B+ is fair.
This is a GREAT conversation. Big ups to all of the participants!
It's all just in fun anyway. None of us knows what was actually possible, beyond trading Wiggins, Wiseman, #7, #14, and future 1sts for Ben 'Playoff' Simmons. I think we're all glad /that/ didn't happen.
Beyond that, projecting how good these moves are feels very contingent. Will Porter be out of shape and injury-prone or be this year's Wiggins -- motivated, rejuvenated, and better than anyone expected? Will Wiseman suddenly make the Jordan Poole leap and look like an NBA player or continue to flash tantalizing potential while hurting the team on both ends? Will the rookies progress faster than expected -- or languish in the G-league because they just don't belong with the big club?
Given the limitations, I give the FO a B+. They signed Steph (the must-have), seem to have drafted well (critical for the future, as we hope they won't be in the lottery again soon), and got intriguing picks from the bargain bin. They struck out on the mid-level with the guys (Mills, Batum) they felt could make a difference, which for me would have pushed them into A-/A territory, but they still have it if an opportunity arises (better making a move just to make one).
Bazemore leaving felt light a slap in the face, given that he left more years for the chance to 'pursue a title' with the Lakers, but I don't harbor any ill will (other than that I hope the Warriors annihilate the Lakers and Wiseman and Kuminga dunk hard on Baze's head). But I don't blame the FO for that one. He may start this whole season in LA, and that (hopefully) wouldn't have happened here.
The fresh coaching blood coincides with the acquisition of the talented youngsters, so that looks like a sensible plan. I wouldn't have minded if they had the chance to trade #14 or even #7 to move down and pick up a veteran wing, if one were available. But who knows?
Bottom line, I thought they did fine but didn't wow me. You can't sign Durant every off-season.
Today's show was brought to you by the letter "A" and the number "30". -- Count Dracula.
You can't just judge this off season in isolation. Despite minor issues with FO that have been blown out of proportion recently, Durant put his body on the line for the team and in free agency did the Warriors a solid by agreeing to the sign & trade for Russel who turned into Wiggins & Kuminga. Hell, you could go back to the FO outsmarting the league by clearing the path to snatch KD in free agency after Player's Union chose not to smooth out the giant spike in Payroll over 3 years as proposed by the league. At this juncture, after resigning Curry, the Warriors greatest need is restocking the empty pantry and fridge. You can't cook without ingredients and the Warriors cupboards have been bare of internal, controllable depth.
Now I get it. You can only have 5 guys on the floor at the end of the game. But neither can you play 5 guys 48 minutes a game. So the play, in my mind, is build the depth across the roster, build the chemistry, and hope one or more of the young guys can move into the 4-8 slots in the overall depth chart. And this doesn't need to be done in year one.
OPJ, Belly & Andre all on minimums? C'mon. That's solid.
Not using the TPMLE? Save that card for later. Smart move.
Losing Traded Player Exception for Oubre? That old salary slot is no longer needed as we now have 3 lottery pick salary rates to eat up those dollars on the roster.
"The Varriors vill vin the vest." - Count Dracula. (His opinion, not mine.)
Abaddon shared Kevin O’Connor and Marcus Thompson podcast this earlier, but I’m sharing it again because, holy shit, it’s great and so relevant to this discussion!: https://www.theringer.com/2021/8/25/22641952/are-the-warriors-back-inside-the-title-race-and-potential-trades-with-marcus-thompson
A couple of points MT really underlines (that I think supports my A- grade):
- Steph and Dray are bought in. Steph wants a team that can compete during his entire contract, not just one swing. Draymond was all in on Kuminga and Moody. Klay was stoned out on his boat and couldn’t be reached.
- The core didn’t want to gut the team. MT said they liked the idea of getting another star player not not if it was going to leave them with just them. I think this speaks to the confidence they have to essentially say “We’re a championship core when we’re together. Give us a good surrounding cast and we’re good to go.”
- Last year, Steph and Dray had to be leaders on the court, the sidelines and in the locker room, which is a burden that’s easy to underestimate. With Klay and Iggy back, adding vets like OPJ and Bjelly and JTA emerging as a leader as the season progressed, there’s a lot more leadership to carry that load. (I’d add that we’re seeing examples of Looney and Lee becoming leaders in their own right.)
- They still have the flexibility to do a deal down the road, but standing pat looks pretty good as well. MT said there’s no way they’d include Kuminga and Wiseman in a trade and would be reluctant to trade either.
- A lot comes down to Wiseman and the team is high on him, but they’ll be asking less of him and he’ll be surrounded by more offense.
- They both like the pics and can see them getting run and contributing.
I ride with you, Daniel and Dr. Tom. And I am looking forward to you crowing towards the end of the season as some of our more negatively-inclined writers/contributors eat crow. Which I am sure they will do happily, but still.
I'm with Mr. Duby Dub Dubs, he said exactly what I think.
In other hand, i think Moses and John are ready to play, more ready than Wiseman (I would have liked to trade him for a more prepared center)
We still don't have any rebounders , of course they won't hire Rodman as coach, but a 1 hour video of Rodman playing, every day , can teach the team something 😅
OT: Can someone (*cough* Apricot *cough*) explain to me what WPA makes of Steph vs Poole in the following game: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox.php?season=2020&month=04&date=2021-04-14&gid=0022000836? I kinda understand that the "garbage time" component is large as the game got out of hand very quickly and I'm guessing Poole did most of his damage early and Steph did his later on. I'm having a harder time understanding some of the other numbers and most of all how they are assembled into the final WPA number. I have read the basic explanation of NBA WPA here: https://www.inpredictable.com/2013/06/nba-win-probability-added.html.
If nobody wants to bother that's fine too, just hoping someone has some insight they are willing to share, since I'm looking...
Regarding the Warriors’ supposed failure to add rebounding, Otto Porter Jr. boarded last season at a much better clip than (for example) Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap, and both Lopi. And Bjelly was right with those guys.
Reb per 36:
9.0 Porter Jr.
Also, fwiw: GP2 pulled 9.9 boards per 36 last season in the NBA — in a tiny sample, but he also averaged 9.1, 10.7, and 9.4 in his last three g-league seasons.
So do we grade your guys grades? 😁
I think we really should be grading Myers and what he built given the hand he was dealt by ownership (which are the exact parameters I would have given him if it was my team).:
- Highest payroll in the NBA, but a $400 million spending limit
- Preserve/build the future of the franchise unless there’s a “can’t miss” opportunity
- Keep the core happy
Now let’s look at Myers handling of the task:
-He started with a team that finished last season 15-5 with 8 players: Curry/Green/Wiggins/JTA/Looney/Poole/Mulder/Bazemore
- Subtract Bazemore and Mulder, but add returning players Klay, Lee, Wiseman*. Can we agree that’s an upgrade? (In my book it’s fair to look at the Warriors returning from injury/illness because those are real world factors in their decision process.)
- Now add veterans Iggy, OPJ and Bjelly. We’re now up to a 12-man rotation. That’s enough that guys can miss games for rest and occasional bumps and bruises and they can still field a good team, so Duby’s fear of relying on rookies seems misplaced.
- I think there’s general agreement that the draft was 👍🏼
So next year’s team could (should?) be much better, and they stayed within their (reasonable) payroll constraints, kept the core happy and have a future core of 25-and-under guys in Poole, Wiseman, Looney, Wiggins, Moody and Kuminga that gives us long-term Warriors’ fans a very bright potential future.
That’s an A- in my book.