644 Comments

Starting lineup was +12 in about 18 minutes. They continue to overwhelm opponents.

Also the new bench unit Poole/Moody/Wiggins/JMG/Looney so far has a +5.9 net rating in 8 minutes. 8 minutes is nothing, but still off to a better start than basically every other second unit they've tried.

Expand full comment

Morning quiz:

What do these three people have in common?

Chasson Randle

Zach Norvell

Jeremy Pargo

If you get it without looking, you get the thanks of a grateful nation (DubNationHQ).

Expand full comment

Based on last night’s rotations, it looks like Kerr really wanted his team to start off on their first long road trip with a winning record.

Expand full comment

For those who care, 548 latest projections https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/ have us 6th (5th in the West), ahead of every East team other than the Celtics (1st). Which... feels pretty fair right about now?

They're RAPTOR player rating page is now updated for the new season: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/. Steph is in 4th place (2nd offensively). Warriors players overall are hurt in these rankings due to low defensive ratings which... again, seems pretty fair right now.

Expand full comment

OK, so we need 2 wins out of this road trip to be at .500 after 10 games (my own personal target, based on many seconds of analysis).

Charlotte, Detroit (SEGABABA), Miami, Orlando, NO (SEGABABA).

If Zion and Ingram are still out, I like our chances in NO, and even if they play, it's a possible win.

So, win at Charlotte and Orlando, and hope for the best at the others, I guess. If Kerr stays with these tighter rotations, then we will probably do better than I expected.

Expand full comment

I think Steph’s gonna tie Klay with 14 threes in a game this year.

Expand full comment
Oct 28, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Wise has graduated from not knowing what he’s doing out there on defense to understanding the instruction. Unfortunately, his opponents know exactly what he’s trying to do, so they can comfortably get to their spots. And he’s probably too focused on his own responsibilities to communicate effectively. He’s getting better, but slowly.

Expand full comment
Oct 28, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Moody does the little stuff that doesn't show up in the box score like a vet. Curry isn't getting this three off without Butler being slightly thrown off of his path:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=460&GameID=0022200068&Season=2022-23&flag=1&title=Curry%2024%27%203PT%20Jump%20Shot%20(23%20PTS)%20(Poole%205%20AST)

Expand full comment
Oct 28, 2022Liked by punk basketball

We got the magic 30 assists. (Thanks SoL, I had overlooked that stat until you posted.) When we do that, we usually win.

Expand full comment

Is it just me, or did Moody turn it up a notch on D?

Expand full comment

Bonus stats:

Martin: (-1)

8 points, 3/10 FGs, 2/4 threes

1 rebound (1 off.), 1 assist, 1 turnover, 1 steal

Herro: (-10)

7 points, 3/12 FGs, 1/5 threes

4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers

Robinson: (-3)

3 points, 1/7 FGs, 1/5 threes

1 rebound, 1 assist

Thompson: (+7)

19 points, 6/19 FGs, 5/14 threes, 2/2 FTs

2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover

Wiseman: (+2)

10 points, 5/8 FGs

6 rebounds (3 off.), 2 turnovers

Poole: (-1)

11 points, 4/7 FGs, 1/4 threes, 2/2 FTs

1 rebound, 7 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal

Expand full comment

Notable stats:

Heat:

Butler: (-8)

27 points, 8/13 FGs, 4/7 threes, 7/7 FTs

6 rebounds (1 off.), 8 assists, 2 turnovers, 6 steals

Adebayo: (-12)

26 points, 10/13 FGs, 6/8 FTs

8 rebounds (4 off.), 1 assist, 5 turnovers, 4 steals, 3 blocks

Strus: (-16)

14 points, 5/11 FGs, 3/8 threes, 1/2 FTs

5 rebounds (1 off.), 2 blocks

Lowry: (-9)

12 points, 4/10 FGs, 2/8 threes, 2/2 FTs

5 rebounds (1 off.), 8 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 steals

Vincent: (-3)

9 points, 3/8 FGs, 1/4 threes, 2/3 FTs

1 rebound, 3 assists, 1 steal

Warriors:

Curry: (+13)

33 points, 13/22 FGs, 7/14 threes

7 rebounds (1 off.), 9 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 steal

Wiggins: (+17)

18 points, 5/10 FGs, 2/5 threes, 6/6 FTs

10 rebounds (3 off.), 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal, 1 block

Looney: (+12)

7 points, 3/5 FGs, 1/2 FTs

7 rebounds (2 off.), 4 assists, 1 turnover

Draymond Green: (+9)

10 points, 5/10 FGs, 0/1 three, 0/1 FT

7 rebounds (2 off.), 4 assists, 5 turnovers

JaMychal Green: (+4)

6 points, 2/3 FGs, 0/1 three, 2/2 FTs

5 rebounds (4 off.), 2 assists, 1 turnover, 1 steal, 1 block

Expand full comment
Oct 28, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Final stats:

Heat:

44.3% shooting (39/88 FGs)

14/43 threes

31 rebounds (8 off.)

25 assists

12 turnovers

16 steals

5 blocks

Warriors:

50.0% shooting (46/92 FGs)

18/46 threes

13/15 FTs

50 rebounds (16 off.)

30 assists

21 turnovers

4 steals

2 blocks

Points in paint:

Heat: 34

Warriors: 48

Fastbreak points:

Heat: 19

Warriors: 12

Points off turnovers:

Heat: 15

Warriors: 18

Bench points:

Heat: 30

Warriors: 36

https://derpicdn.net/img/2016/10/20/1277386/small.gif

Expand full comment

Wiseman first off the bench is a lock for the year. Loon should always sub out first because he is a 20-24 minute guy (and early fouls on bigs is an NBA tradition). That means Wise will likely get 3-4 minutes with the starters every game 1st qtr before Poole and/or Moody make an appearance. That's perfect. Wise should get his fair share of minutes with starters and subs. We just gotta stop forcing passes to him. Hopefully, if we can get Wiseman's stock up, we can trade him, JK, Moody, Poole and 3 future 1st round picks for Beale.

Expand full comment