Gosh I'm trapped at work, delivering deliverables and fake smiling at these mid Halloween Costumes. How I long for the green rolling hills and warm shores of the fortified land that is DNHQ.
What's a topic you'd like me to delve into in the next DNHQ After Dark?
Since Goofus already requested what I would like to know as well query how about this - Would JKs game thus far be considered a leap or a natural progression from last season? If its a leap, what caused it?
How about a comparison of this year's iteration of the Dubs with the last chip-winning team of recent basketball dynasties like the Spurs, Bulls, or Showtime Lakers?
Throwing out the terrible Portland game (because I feel like it), the Warriors' average offensive rating in their 4 victories so far this season is 121.3.
Comparing this to season long ratings for last season, this would put the Warriors' second in the NBA behind just Cleveland's 121.7.
The Warriors' average defensive rating in their 4 victories so far this season is 108.9.
Comparing this to season long ratings for last season, this would put the Warriors' second in the NBA behind just OKC's 107.5.
And the net rating of +12.4 would place just behind OKC's record setting +12.8.
So in 4 of 5 games so far this season (all against projected playoff teams in the big bad West), the Warriors have so far performed at a Championship level.
Comparison doesn't work unless you calculate the prior season's league averages throwing out each team's 16 worst games, for whatever definition of worst you want to use. dubs aren't the only team fucked by the league's game biasing scheduling.
While Jimmy Butler's 32.6 minutes per game currently leads the Warriors, he is just 54th in the NBA in minutes per game so far this season, despite the Warriors' having played an overtime game and 2 other clutch games.
32.6 Butler (54th in NBA)
30.4 Curry (87th in NBA)
30.2 Kuminga (90th in NBA)
29.6 Podz (95th in the NBA)
28.2 Green (112th in NBA)
23.3 Horford (173rd in minutes per game, but has played in just 3 of 5 games)
21.7 Moody (189th in minutes per game, but has played in just 3 of 5 games)
17.0 Hield (242th in minutes per game)
14.2 Richard (has played in all 5 games)
13.4 Post (has played in all 5 games)
9.2 GPII (has played in all 5 games)
8.7 TJD (has played in 3 of 5 games)
6.3 Santos (has played in 4 of 5 games)
5.0 Spencer (has played in 3 of 5 games)
Very small sample size box plus/minus numbers so far this season:
+10.1 Curry
+4.3 Butler
+1.5 Green
+0.7 Richard
-0.9 Post
-1.4 Kuminga
-1.4 Podz
-1.7 Moody
-3.4 TJD
-4.9 GPII
-6.5 Hield
-7.0 Horford
-9.1 Spencer
-10.3 Santos
Very small sample player efficiency rating numbers so far this season:
29.1 Curry
24.0 Butler
17.5 Kuminga
15.2 Richard
13.5 Green
13.3 Podz
12.6 Moody
12.5 TJD
11.7 GPII
11.1 Post
9.8 Hield
7.2 Spencer
6.5 Horford
0.9 Santos
Very small sample win shares per 48 minutes played so far this season:
.269 Butler
.265 Curry
.157 Richard
.139 Kuminga
.121 TJD
.114 Green
.099 Podz
.074 Post
.056 GPII
.041 Moody
.020 Hield
Negative: Horford, Spencer, and Santos
Very small sample Player Impact Estimate so far this season:
17.3 Curry
15.6 Butler
10.9 Kuminga
20.0 Green
8.9 Richard
8.8 Podz
8.8 Moody
8.6 Post
7.4 TJD
6.0 GPII
5.8 Hield
5.2 Spencer
4.2 Horford
-1.9 Santos
Very small sample true shooting so far this season:
72.0% Richard
70.9% Butler
68.9% Curry
64.0% Kuminga
62.2% Moody
61.9% Green
60.0% Santos
56.1% Podz
55.9% Post
53.3% GPII
52.6% Horford
51.5% TJD
50.5% Hield
33.3% Spencer
Very small sample size raw plus/minus so far this season (even more noisy for players who have not played in all 5 game or who played more/less during the dominant 2nd half stretch last night or the terrible 1st half stretch against Portland):
+65 Green
+46 Butler
+36 Curry
+29 Post
+25 Kuminga
+22 Podz
+13 Hield
+3 Moody
-9 TJD
-10 Santos
-14 Spencer
-15 GPII
-16 Horford
-35 Richard
Note that in all available stats that try to account for a player's value in single metric (at least among all of these that I can find updated for last night's game), Will Richard is among top 5 Warriors, as shown above. However, he has the worst raw plus/minus, which at least to some degree illustrates the pitfalls of this statistic, especially for small sample sizes.
And while Santos has come up dead last statistically so far this season, this is because he has 4 turnovers and 5 fouls in his 24 minutes of (mostly garbage-time) play versus just 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 steals. In addition, TJD has played just 26 minutes, GPII just 46, Horford and Moody have played in only three games, and Post had played only spot minutes until last night. So obviously, the sample sizes for these players are even smaller than for they are for the top 7 players in the rotation.
However, with all of those caveats, based strictly on their on court performances so far this very young season, Hield's (and perhaps GPII's) minutes should be reduced in favor of Richard's (and perhaps Moody's) while Horford's should be reduced in favor of Post's (and perhaps TJD's).
The best news to me is that the Warriors have managed go 4-1 while facing two back to backs even though:
1) Hield and GPII have so far hit just 6-24 threes,
2) GPII has missed all 4 of his three point attempts,
3) Horford has not yet hit his stride on offense, and best of all
4) other than in the one overtime game against Denver (in which Butler played 39 minutes, Steph played 37, and Kuminga 36), no Warrior has played over 35 minutes in any game to date, and Curry has not played more than 32 minutes in any other game: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/FKdUe
I didn't see the last part of the 3rd/4th on (Did Not Finish - Old), so I'm rewatching it now.
Butler just eviscerated the Clippers in the late third/early fourth. If he wasn't in there, it would definitely have been single digits.
The Clips horrible offensive stretch was about equal parts good defense and just missing shots, but I'll take it. Clearly our peak defense can win us a few games.
I was able to attend the game last night, so please forgive me for this deep dive into some of the more arcane statistical aspects of this game that stood out to me most.
The Warriors' +21.4 net rating last night is the 7th highest in NBA history for any team that attempted 4 or fewer free throws (and 2nd highest in NBA history in any game in which the opposing team also hit 5 or more three point shots): https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/ybxzk
The Warriors' +21.4 net rating last night is the 3rd highest in NBA history for any team that allowed 24 or more while scoring 13 or fewer second quarter points: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/2nSbw
The 79 points the Warriors allowed is tied for the 3rd least points that the Warriors have allowed in any NBA game since the start of the 2004-05 season in which the opposing team scored 25 or more first quarter points: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/vUs65
The 79 points the Warriors allowed is the 5th least points that they have allowed in any NBA game since the start of the 2004-05 season in which the opposing team scored 24 or more second quarter points: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/YZmVb
(Unfortunately, the tool I am using doesn't let me search for halftime scores and margins.)
These stats are all good but what was the atmosphere like in Chase? Were there any interesting interactions on and off the court that we TV viewers would not have been able to see?
It was Pride Night. Everything was feel good, but the crowd was pretty laid back. They did one of these, especially for Pride Night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hsU6gjP7FY
From the 9:00 mark of the third quarter to the 3:15 mark of the 4th quarter (a span of 17:45 game time, which is 37% of 48 minutes), the Warriors outscored the Clippers 42-14. That equates to a score of 114-38 over 48 minutes. But the biggest story of this stretch of defensive dominance to me was really *how* the Clippers scored their 14 points. During this 17:45 minutes stretch, here were the Clippers only points scored from the field:
1) With 5:15 left in the third, Zubac gets an offensive rebound and follows up a well-contested Harden miss to end a Clippers' scoring drought that lasted 4:55 and included one shot clock violation, three additional turnovers, 3 missed two point attempts (all by Harden or Leonard), and one missed three point attempt.
2) With 4:03 left in the third, Zubac gets a layup off of a Leonard dump off after Horford had to help because Moody got burned by a wicked Leonard crossover.
3) With 1:43 left in the third, Lopez hits step back floater off of one leg from 12 feet out with Hield covering after he got away with a carry trying to handle the ball out on the perimeter beyond the three point line trying to shed Hield.
4) With 10:34 left in the 4th, Podz gets loose with ball trying to dribble behind his back, Paul picks his pocket, and Podz lets Collins waltz in for a fast break layup.
5) With 6:41 left in the game and a 20 point lead, a clear push/moving screen by Lopez walls off both Moody and Draymond, allowing Leonard to waltz in for layup.
Note that the 5 plays above account for *all* the Clippers' scoring from the field for more than a third of last night's game. Of the Clippers' 14 points over this 17:45 stretch of play, 4 were scored from the free throw line, 2 were scored on a Zubac put back, and 2 were scored off of a Podz ball handling miscue. That leaves just 3 more two point baskets that the Clippers scored against the Warriors' half-court defense over this entire stretch, and two of these three baskets should have been waved off, the first because of Lopez's clear carry and the second because of his clear shove of Draymond.
During this 17:45 stretch, the Warriors' defense forced three shot clock violations and 5 additional Clipper turnovers while holding the Clippers to 4-12 shooting from two point range and 0-8 shooting from beyond the arc.
The dominant third quarter Warriors typically supernova the other team into submission. Last night, the Warriors boa-constricted the Clippers into submission.
Warriors announce that De’Anthony Melton will be integrated into practice the next couple weeks, including some Santa Cruz practices. Re-evaluated again in another three weeks. In the late stages of ACL rehab. @anthonyVslater
Since there's no game today, I decided to mess around with a meaningless metric! (it actually probably already exists, I just don't know what it's name is)
- In the NBA, the home team wins a bit more than 60% of the time. So I decided to award 1 point for a home win, but 1.5 points for a road win. That multiplied by the losing team's wins is the winning team's score for that game. So the win last night earned the Dubs 2 points (one for a home win * the Clips' 2 total wins). But the Lakers win is worth 3 points, because it's a road win
- But the losing team loses points in a similar way: -1 per opponent loss for a road loss, but -1.5 per opponent loss for a home loss. So while the Warriors lose 2 points for the Blazers road loss, the Kings lose 4.5 points for losing at home to the Wizards
(results below - I only quickly did the Western Conference)
I think Timpf is mispronouncing Will's last name. Will is on our team; if the Warriors have been incorrectly pronouncing his last name, he would have told them by now, wouldn't he?
E1P coming at 3:30pm Pacific! It's actually more like a E9P but whatever
Gosh I'm trapped at work, delivering deliverables and fake smiling at these mid Halloween Costumes. How I long for the green rolling hills and warm shores of the fortified land that is DNHQ.
What's a topic you'd like me to delve into in the next DNHQ After Dark?
So youre clark kent, NOBODY at work knows your super hero alter ego?! Thats crazy.
fortified with eggnog, perhaps.
"delivering deliverables"
You mean edibles? 😁
Since Goofus already requested what I would like to know as well query how about this - Would JKs game thus far be considered a leap or a natural progression from last season? If its a leap, what caused it?
How about a comparison of this year's iteration of the Dubs with the last chip-winning team of recent basketball dynasties like the Spurs, Bulls, or Showtime Lakers?
Gonna be real awkward when one of those mid costumers reads this and learned Daniel's smile was fake all along
Lolol They will never find me here in the safe haven
Didn’t you say they discovered you were the GBK?
The kids are alright: How good could a future team built around the current youth be?
OT Sea Dubs training camp with few returning (non-two way) players? Any news why?
The new E1P is awesome.
Thanks for attending my TED Talk.
Throwing out the terrible Portland game (because I feel like it), the Warriors' average offensive rating in their 4 victories so far this season is 121.3.
Comparing this to season long ratings for last season, this would put the Warriors' second in the NBA behind just Cleveland's 121.7.
The Warriors' average defensive rating in their 4 victories so far this season is 108.9.
Comparing this to season long ratings for last season, this would put the Warriors' second in the NBA behind just OKC's 107.5.
And the net rating of +12.4 would place just behind OKC's record setting +12.8.
So in 4 of 5 games so far this season (all against projected playoff teams in the big bad West), the Warriors have so far performed at a Championship level.
Comparison doesn't work unless you calculate the prior season's league averages throwing out each team's 16 worst games, for whatever definition of worst you want to use. dubs aren't the only team fucked by the league's game biasing scheduling.
The comparison also doesn’t work because the Warriors have had no games against any bottom dwelling Eastern conference teams yet.
While Jimmy Butler's 32.6 minutes per game currently leads the Warriors, he is just 54th in the NBA in minutes per game so far this season, despite the Warriors' having played an overtime game and 2 other clutch games.
32.6 Butler (54th in NBA)
30.4 Curry (87th in NBA)
30.2 Kuminga (90th in NBA)
29.6 Podz (95th in the NBA)
28.2 Green (112th in NBA)
23.3 Horford (173rd in minutes per game, but has played in just 3 of 5 games)
21.7 Moody (189th in minutes per game, but has played in just 3 of 5 games)
17.0 Hield (242th in minutes per game)
14.2 Richard (has played in all 5 games)
13.4 Post (has played in all 5 games)
9.2 GPII (has played in all 5 games)
8.7 TJD (has played in 3 of 5 games)
6.3 Santos (has played in 4 of 5 games)
5.0 Spencer (has played in 3 of 5 games)
Very small sample size box plus/minus numbers so far this season:
+10.1 Curry
+4.3 Butler
+1.5 Green
+0.7 Richard
-0.9 Post
-1.4 Kuminga
-1.4 Podz
-1.7 Moody
-3.4 TJD
-4.9 GPII
-6.5 Hield
-7.0 Horford
-9.1 Spencer
-10.3 Santos
Very small sample player efficiency rating numbers so far this season:
29.1 Curry
24.0 Butler
17.5 Kuminga
15.2 Richard
13.5 Green
13.3 Podz
12.6 Moody
12.5 TJD
11.7 GPII
11.1 Post
9.8 Hield
7.2 Spencer
6.5 Horford
0.9 Santos
Very small sample win shares per 48 minutes played so far this season:
.269 Butler
.265 Curry
.157 Richard
.139 Kuminga
.121 TJD
.114 Green
.099 Podz
.074 Post
.056 GPII
.041 Moody
.020 Hield
Negative: Horford, Spencer, and Santos
Very small sample Player Impact Estimate so far this season:
17.3 Curry
15.6 Butler
10.9 Kuminga
20.0 Green
8.9 Richard
8.8 Podz
8.8 Moody
8.6 Post
7.4 TJD
6.0 GPII
5.8 Hield
5.2 Spencer
4.2 Horford
-1.9 Santos
Very small sample true shooting so far this season:
72.0% Richard
70.9% Butler
68.9% Curry
64.0% Kuminga
62.2% Moody
61.9% Green
60.0% Santos
56.1% Podz
55.9% Post
53.3% GPII
52.6% Horford
51.5% TJD
50.5% Hield
33.3% Spencer
Very small sample size raw plus/minus so far this season (even more noisy for players who have not played in all 5 game or who played more/less during the dominant 2nd half stretch last night or the terrible 1st half stretch against Portland):
+65 Green
+46 Butler
+36 Curry
+29 Post
+25 Kuminga
+22 Podz
+13 Hield
+3 Moody
-9 TJD
-10 Santos
-14 Spencer
-15 GPII
-16 Horford
-35 Richard
Note that in all available stats that try to account for a player's value in single metric (at least among all of these that I can find updated for last night's game), Will Richard is among top 5 Warriors, as shown above. However, he has the worst raw plus/minus, which at least to some degree illustrates the pitfalls of this statistic, especially for small sample sizes.
And while Santos has come up dead last statistically so far this season, this is because he has 4 turnovers and 5 fouls in his 24 minutes of (mostly garbage-time) play versus just 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 steals. In addition, TJD has played just 26 minutes, GPII just 46, Horford and Moody have played in only three games, and Post had played only spot minutes until last night. So obviously, the sample sizes for these players are even smaller than for they are for the top 7 players in the rotation.
However, with all of those caveats, based strictly on their on court performances so far this very young season, Hield's (and perhaps GPII's) minutes should be reduced in favor of Richard's (and perhaps Moody's) while Horford's should be reduced in favor of Post's (and perhaps TJD's).
The best news to me is that the Warriors have managed go 4-1 while facing two back to backs even though:
1) Hield and GPII have so far hit just 6-24 threes,
2) GPII has missed all 4 of his three point attempts,
3) Horford has not yet hit his stride on offense, and best of all
4) other than in the one overtime game against Denver (in which Butler played 39 minutes, Steph played 37, and Kuminga 36), no Warrior has played over 35 minutes in any game to date, and Curry has not played more than 32 minutes in any other game: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/FKdUe
I didn't see the last part of the 3rd/4th on (Did Not Finish - Old), so I'm rewatching it now.
Butler just eviscerated the Clippers in the late third/early fourth. If he wasn't in there, it would definitely have been single digits.
The Clips horrible offensive stretch was about equal parts good defense and just missing shots, but I'll take it. Clearly our peak defense can win us a few games.
Warriors Breakdown on why QP was a team high +34 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALfUp2Zs_Mk
why i voted him as ww
I was able to attend the game last night, so please forgive me for this deep dive into some of the more arcane statistical aspects of this game that stood out to me most.
The Warriors' +21.4 net rating last night is the highest in franchise history for any game in which the Warriors scored 13 or fewer points in any quarter: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/LiPKe
The Warriors' +21.4 net rating last night is the 7th highest in NBA history for any team that attempted 4 or fewer free throws (and 2nd highest in NBA history in any game in which the opposing team also hit 5 or more three point shots): https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/ybxzk
The Warriors' +21.4 net rating last night is the 3rd highest in NBA history for any team that allowed 24 or more while scoring 13 or fewer second quarter points: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/2nSbw
The 79 points the Warriors allowed is tied for the 3rd least points that the Warriors have allowed in any NBA game since the start of the 2004-05 season in which the opposing team scored 25 or more first quarter points: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/vUs65
The 79 points the Warriors allowed is the 5th least points that they have allowed in any NBA game since the start of the 2004-05 season in which the opposing team scored 24 or more second quarter points: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/YZmVb
(Unfortunately, the tool I am using doesn't let me search for halftime scores and margins.)
These stats are all good but what was the atmosphere like in Chase? Were there any interesting interactions on and off the court that we TV viewers would not have been able to see?
It was Pride Night. Everything was feel good, but the crowd was pretty laid back. They did one of these, especially for Pride Night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hsU6gjP7FY
From the 9:00 mark of the third quarter to the 3:15 mark of the 4th quarter (a span of 17:45 game time, which is 37% of 48 minutes), the Warriors outscored the Clippers 42-14. That equates to a score of 114-38 over 48 minutes. But the biggest story of this stretch of defensive dominance to me was really *how* the Clippers scored their 14 points. During this 17:45 minutes stretch, here were the Clippers only points scored from the field:
1) With 5:15 left in the third, Zubac gets an offensive rebound and follows up a well-contested Harden miss to end a Clippers' scoring drought that lasted 4:55 and included one shot clock violation, three additional turnovers, 3 missed two point attempts (all by Harden or Leonard), and one missed three point attempt.
2) With 4:03 left in the third, Zubac gets a layup off of a Leonard dump off after Horford had to help because Moody got burned by a wicked Leonard crossover.
3) With 1:43 left in the third, Lopez hits step back floater off of one leg from 12 feet out with Hield covering after he got away with a carry trying to handle the ball out on the perimeter beyond the three point line trying to shed Hield.
4) With 10:34 left in the 4th, Podz gets loose with ball trying to dribble behind his back, Paul picks his pocket, and Podz lets Collins waltz in for a fast break layup.
5) With 6:41 left in the game and a 20 point lead, a clear push/moving screen by Lopez walls off both Moody and Draymond, allowing Leonard to waltz in for layup.
Note that the 5 plays above account for *all* the Clippers' scoring from the field for more than a third of last night's game. Of the Clippers' 14 points over this 17:45 stretch of play, 4 were scored from the free throw line, 2 were scored on a Zubac put back, and 2 were scored off of a Podz ball handling miscue. That leaves just 3 more two point baskets that the Clippers scored against the Warriors' half-court defense over this entire stretch, and two of these three baskets should have been waved off, the first because of Lopez's clear carry and the second because of his clear shove of Draymond.
During this 17:45 stretch, the Warriors' defense forced three shot clock violations and 5 additional Clipper turnovers while holding the Clippers to 4-12 shooting from two point range and 0-8 shooting from beyond the arc.
The dominant third quarter Warriors typically supernova the other team into submission. Last night, the Warriors boa-constricted the Clippers into submission.
Someone in the press said "exotic lineups with Gui" to SC and that brought out his silly side. 🤣
https://youtube.com/shorts/3al9AfMCfQ8?si=J-3rAAitphCh2iWu
This was sooo cute… that oooh… Ayesha is one lucky girl.
Rockets/Raptors starts in an hour and a half. Game was moved up due to WS.
Warriors announce that De’Anthony Melton will be integrated into practice the next couple weeks, including some Santa Cruz practices. Re-evaluated again in another three weeks. In the late stages of ACL rehab. @anthonyVslater
This way he can't get hurt in the first week of the season. Light-years.
ITS HAPPENING
Since there's no game today, I decided to mess around with a meaningless metric! (it actually probably already exists, I just don't know what it's name is)
- In the NBA, the home team wins a bit more than 60% of the time. So I decided to award 1 point for a home win, but 1.5 points for a road win. That multiplied by the losing team's wins is the winning team's score for that game. So the win last night earned the Dubs 2 points (one for a home win * the Clips' 2 total wins). But the Lakers win is worth 3 points, because it's a road win
- But the losing team loses points in a similar way: -1 per opponent loss for a road loss, but -1.5 per opponent loss for a home loss. So while the Warriors lose 2 points for the Blazers road loss, the Kings lose 4.5 points for losing at home to the Wizards
(results below - I only quickly did the Western Conference)
Top 6: GSW 7 OKC 5 DEN 3 SAS 2.5 POR 2 LAC 1
7-10: UTAH 0 MIN -.5 LAL -1
11-15: MEM -2.5 HOU -3 PHX -3 DAL -3.5 SAC -4 NOP -6.5
TLDR: I like the metric because it validates my NBA biases
Jason Timpf is VERY high on the Warriors, especially the defense https://youtu.be/a1f57m1mMn8?si=mU76b0mkGSXPccqF
Timpf makes pronunciation gaffes haha. He just fixes them quicker than Alch. It’s not sounded Rashard, we’ve been doing it correctly.
He is pronouncing Will Richard's last name as Rashard. Is that the correct pronunciation? I've been saying the normal Richard all this time.
His mispronouncing as an homage to Athletic Alchemy, who hilariously struggles with pronouncing names.
I heard Fitz say "Richards" at least once last night, and he obviously knows better.
I think Timpf is mispronouncing Will's last name. Will is on our team; if the Warriors have been incorrectly pronouncing his last name, he would have told them by now, wouldn't he?
Kwik Kwiz (No peeking):
who is leading the Warriors in blocks per game?
30
How is the co-op? From aaannnd1 now Refugium
Cohousing life is lovely, thanks for asking! I think I may be a lifer.