My ranking of players I would like to see remain on the Dubs roster this season, based entirely on how fun they are to watch and root for:
1. Steph
2. GP2
3. Podziemski
4. Draymond
5. Looney
6. Kuminga
I think Moody and Wiggins are fine, sometimes even good, and I would love to see more of the monster dunk artist version of Wiggins we saw in '22, but I would not feel nearly as sad to see them go as I would feel about Young Glove or Loondawg.
Unfortunately, I'm almost guaranteed to be disappointed if we do any more trades.
It's not the trades that worry me. It's the coaching. Kerr employs a 'force to fit' style of his system on players instead of letting them play free and innovating. The new guys can bring a different energy and look to the team. Replacing catch and shoot Klay with Hield should not be the major focus. We have other players who should impact the game like Podz, Melton, and Anderson, plus Moody and JK.
Another worry I have is Post getting left in the gleague. I believe this guy has what it takes to play in the NBA. He brings a different dimension to the team. Rim protection and stretching the floor. TJD cannot do this and neither can Looney. I would hate to see him not being used on the team as he's done with many big men. We need a new look.
Gui was on the first draft of my list, but I trimmed it down to be a bit less greedy. I haven't watched him play enough to get as attached as I have to the other guys. But I'd gladly take him over most vet-min free agents.
EDIT: P.S. I am also looking forward to seeing how well SloMo fits into the team. Not as sure about Hield (I'm afraid I'm going to be annoyed at his defense almost as often as I enjoy his offense) and I don't really know what Melton's game is like yet.
Apparently the best odds of Markkanens team to start next season are the Jazz and Warriors at +250. Updated a few hours ago… I’m not familiar with gambling but I have heard Vegas tends to know things before they happen.
I'm starting to believe that Ainge never had any intention of making a trade and was just trying to see if he could fleece the Ws or someone else. I hope Dunleavy won't bite. An overpay may be defensible, but let's not pretend this guy is the final piece to a championship squad. Love to have Markannen, but a bad trade is a bad trade.
I’ve really liked Markkanen the handful of times I’ve seen him play but I don’t feel like I can really judge his D. Can anyone make a case for why/how he is much better than Saric?
This is the time of the year when I usually rant about Nico Mannion, but for a welcome change I won't. I tell you only that he's not mad at Podz for copying his hairstyle (he now looks like a tiny Valanciunas), that he plays for Pallacanestro Varese (ugliest city in Italy), and that he does 20.3 pts, 6.6 ast and 37% threes. And he still loves you all.
points.I do think at certain points in his career he ascended above his reputation and was a legit good player.
But the last two years the Bulls have had a decent roster. One year Lavine was healthy, one year he was not. Didn’t matter. They were basically the same team either way. If a 43M player can be out 3/4 of a season and a team doesn’t notice, what is he?
If the Warriors got him there’s a chance it could work out and he could help. But evidence would suggest a cap on the ceiling and a decent downside.
It’s just a really tough bet to make and that’s the math the whole league is doing. He limits what other moves you can do due to his salary, and you might be stuck if it doesn’t work because he’s so hard to trade.
The Warriors CANT bet on Lavine without getting enough picks to open up other options.
4 years ago his stats were amazing! Steady decline since. Interesting to question if he was allowed to be a pure scorer whether he could bring it back.
Lavine quickly went from derided to slightly underrated with some of these FA/Trades/Proposed Trades (Shoutout Markkanen) going on right now. Again my preference would still be to keep Wiggins but if they absolutely have to make a trade, I’d go for a distressed asset like Lavine rather than completely hamstrunging ourselves for the next 8 years in terms of giving up valuable draft capital
The Pelicans have dangled forward Brandon Ingram in trade talks, and the former No. 2 overall pick has drawn some interest, including from the Sacramento Kings. However, there was a growing sense heading into the weekend that Sacramento would pivot and try to acquire DeMar DeRozan via a sign-and-trade agreement with the Chicago Bulls, league sources told HoopsHype, and as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported.
It’s worth noting Wendell Carter Jr. is among several center targets the Pelicans are eying, as previously reported on HoopsHype. Free agent Daniel Theis has also been linked to New Orleans as a cheaper alternative.
-Mavs wanted Malik Beasley before they got Klay. Pistons want Beasley, but for now, they in the middle of trade discussions with other teams to act as a salary dump destination for draft pick compensation. Pelicans are also interested in Beasley.
-Before joining the Warriors, Buddy Hield received interest from the Pistons, Nuggets, Heat, and the Lakers.
-76ers have expressed interest in various free agents like Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith, Reggie Bullock, and Lester Quinones.
-Cavs and 76ers are interested in getting Dorian Finney-Smith from the Nets.
-Mavs are considering getting back Dinwiddie and Dennis Smith Jr.. They are also interested in Malachi Flynn.
I'm still as high on BI as I am on LM, just because he has taken on so much responsibility for play making in NOP. I think his shooting numbers may have dipped do to this. But play making from a guy his size is a really nice thing to have and it helps free up Curry more than LM would. But I realize his relationship with Kerr may be fractured. Oh well.
Not trying to get anyone hot under the collar about Steve Kerr. I’d just like to bring a few statistical receipts to make an observation which I find pretty revealing.
I took GSW Stats from 2014-15 to 2023-24 (10 seasons) and League Stats from 2014-15 and 2023-24 to see if there was any change over time. I asked a simple question:
How many Power Forwards or Centers on each team scored (a) 10-14.9 pts p/gm, (b) 15-19.9 pts p/gm and (c) 20+ pts p/gm. Straightforward enough.
League, 2014-15
(a)10+14.9 pts p/gm 1.45 dudes per team
(b)15-19.9 pts p/gm 0.5 dudes per team
(c)20+ pts p/gm 0.17 dudes per team (only 5 players: Blake, Bosch, AD, Boogie & Aldridge, 5 All-Stars and 4 All-NBA)
Total 2.17 Power Forwards or Centers scoring 10+ pts p/gm per team.
NO TEAM had zero players on this list.
Only 5 teams had only one player that fit this criteria.
League, 2023-24
(a)10+14.9 pts p/gm 1.31 no change
(b)15-19.9 pts p/gm 0.52 no change
(c)20+ pts p/gm 0.76 BIG CHANGE!!
We go from 5 ‘Bigs’ in the whole league scoring 20+ to 21 players (+ Sabonis just missing the cut), including 12 All-Stars and 7 All-NBA.
ZERO teams had less than 2 ‘Bigs’ on their team that scored 10+ pts p/gm.
You have to admit, this is a substantial change. Basically a 400% increase in the number of impact ‘Bigs’.
GSW
2014-15 Dray (11.7) Mo Buckets (10.4)
2015-16 Dray (14)
2016-17 Dray (10.2)
2017-18 Dray (11)
2018-19 Boogie (16.3)
2019-20 Paschall (14)
2020-21 Wiseman (11.5)
2021-22 ZERO
2022-23 ZERO
2023-24 JK (16.1)
Averages
(a)10+14.9 pts p/gm 7 times in 10 years
(b)15-19.9 pts p/gm 2 times in 10 years
(c)20+ pts p/gm 0 times in 10 years
Total = less than 1 Big per season scoring min 10 pts
I could even throw out 2 of these. Boogie was a ring chasing vet who fell into our lap and whose personality and offensive game were so big he could score 16 a game no matter what system he was playing in. And Paschall scored 14 as a rookie in the everyone-was-injured season. I mean, someone had to score. Based on the personnel in these seasons, had Boogie and Paschall not been present, it was unlikely any other Big would have eclipsed 10+ pts.
I am merely trying to point out that the Warriors’ stats vs the league’s stats are an outlier, that they are statistically unlikely and begging for an explanation.
As off the reservation as these stats are, the first 5 years have a perfectly reasonable explanation: the trio of Steph-Klay-Dray + Kerr’s revolutionary offensive scheme built on top of that trio with the monster talent of KD thrown on top like a 2-ton cherry. The Warriors brought so much damn firepower from the PG-SG-SF positions that they made scoring from the ‘Big’ positions practically irrelevant. Conclusion: stats from first 5 years vs. league were outliers but were derived from real action on the court and from Kerr’s clipboard. It was a revolution, and it was beautiful.
HOWEVER, when you remove KD, and remove Klay due to injury, and add years onto Steph & Dray, you remove the ‘real action’ that had been the root cause of the outlier stats. Last year, no NBA team had less than 2 players score 10+ pts p/gm. In two of the last three years, GSW has had ZERO. If the players on the court are no longer the reason for the outlier stats (ie, we no longer have the overwhelming firepower from the PG-SG-SF positions that we once had), then we are left with Kerr’s clipboard.
My conclusion is that Kerr’s genius was deriving an offensive scheme from a once-in-a-lifetime grouping of players and that he is still trying in so many ways to replicate the action on the court.
Fact: Kerr said JK needs to learn how to play the 3 more if he wants more time on the court. Is that because JK can’t play power forward or because the offense isn’t schemed to allow for the power forward (or a center) to be a 20+ scorer? I know saying “Jonathon Kuminga” is like shouting “Atkins Diet” in a crowded conference of Dieticians and Heart Surgeons, but the evidence seems fairly clear. You can bet all the free agent Power Forwards and Centers around the league the last 5 years know this. If you’re playing for Kerr, and you’re a PF or C, leave your expectations about scoring in the locker room.
Sorry, I love Kerr. But until I see evidence otherwise, evidence that bears itself out statistically, I will continue to believe that Kerr/Curry/Green are banking on the old playbook, that they will (schematically) continue to accentuate scoring from the PG-SG-SF at the expense of scoring from the bigs. We will continue to finesse the basket rather than attack the basket. And we will continue to believe that a Dray/Looney lineup can compete with the 20 or so next generation of bigs that score 20+ points on a nightly basis.
Well, those are my receipts. Go ahead and throw me on the BBQ. I’m used to it. :-) LOL
It is strange that the Warriors play such a Moreyball way now. In Kerr’s first two amazing years the warriors were 9 & 7 at points in the paint. Durant truly made them the jump shooting team Charles mistook them for. They’ve been bottom ten since Durant left. However, TJD changed that downward trend a bit so we’ll need to see what happens next with Kenny leaving.
Who are the scoring big men that Kerr has been holding back from scoring? Feels like a personnel issue not coaching.
This year, Kerr had Saric and TJD and featured both of them in actions added/emphasized in the playbook (pick and pop, and a lot more PNR, respectively). He’s changed his offense in exactly the way you would want. They both scored 17 pts/36 min
the roster/coaching to big to unpack here, but a couple thoughts.
In 2022-23, JK was a 17 pt per 36. But when you only play 20 min per gm., your under 10. If JK plays 2 more minutes a game in his first two seasons, he gets over 10 per/gm. The question is: what made another guard's 2 min per game that much more valuable than JK's, Dario's or TJD's? I'm not saying Kerr is intentionally suppressing scoring from those bigs. I am saying that the system, the philosophy, the style of game he is most comfortable with is like a wet heavy wool blanket on the minutes played and sets/actions within games for those bigs who CAN score.
For example, Kerr likes a backdoor cut to an open basket. Who doesn't? But I don't think he is as fond of a guy like JK just bulldozing his way in the lane for a bucket or trip to the line. We are in the bottom of the league in getting to the line. That's the statistical way of saying we don't put pressure on the rim. I believe Kerr likes the game to be free-flowing and not get bogged down in stoppage for free throws. I DO, TOO! It's not always pretty, but sometimes slowing the game down and getting dirty inside is what you need, especially when your stars are older and might enjoy a breath.
The point is that there is a beautiful game of basketball inside Kerr's head, and without making conscious and intentional changes, he is prone to default to managing the style of game that he loves. He isn't ever going to default to "give it to the big guy and let him work inside, then do it again." Why did a rookie in Podz play more minutes per game than 3rd year JK? Because Podz plays the game Steve sees in his head. Podz plays the style that Steve FEELS comfortable with.
It's not about smarts. It's about what is in Steve's gut. And the only way to counter that is for Steve to INTENTIONALLY allow the players to play in ways that might make him uncomfortable. I would go so far as to say the more Steve feels uncomfortable in game, the better we'll do. So when he wants to yank JK for Buddy, he thinks twice. When he wants to yank TJD for Podz, he hesitates.
It's like that Curry crazy dribble stupid 3-point shot against the Clippers. Kerr had his arms up in the air like, "What the H are you doing???" Then saw the ball go in, sat down, and embraced that he was living in a new world. Today, he needs to see JK go one on three, dunk over all three, get fouled and sink the free throw. Sit down and smile and not yank him because he didn't hit an open De'Anthony Melton with a skip pass.
My issue with Kerr is that he is human like the rest of us. He is one of the great coaches. I think his coaching in the playoffs may be underrated. But we all have our comfort zones and after a decade, it's not like any of us don't know how Steve Kerr likes to play. And it's not like any of us can't see how the league has changed. But we are on the outside looking in now.
Kerr has said two things. 1. JK needs to play the 3 better so he can get in more rotations. 2. That he needs to "simplify" his read-and-react game for the young guys. This makes me nervous. It says that JK needs to play the 3 if he is going to be a 20+ pt p/gm scorer because the system doesn't allow that from a big position. And two, that the system is fine as is, it's the players that can't keep up with it and we'll just dumb down the system to accommodate those players. Sorry, that seems like the same old story. And until that changes, bigs are going to have to get their buckets like Salmon swimming upstream to spawn. "Don't worry, it's just an immense steady wall of water in your way. You can do it, boys."
Kerr needs another Curry-Clipper A HA moment, a religious-level epiphany. But if TJD's dunk over Wemby wasn't enough, what is?
I think Kerr would happily shut up and sit back down if Kuminga goes 1 on 3 and dunks it through contact. If big men across the league are scoring a lot of points per game, that doesn't mean that "let Kuminga iso more" makes for a great offense. It could mean teams have more star bigs across the league (that the warriors don't have), it probably means they run more pick and rolls, it could mean they're better at having 4-out or 5-out lineups that open up space at the rim, etc. Where are those increased points across the league coming from; open dunks, bullyball post-ups, or modern shooting centers?
For the Warriors to play Kuminga as "a big" center, they probably need Kuminga to be able to guard a big center, and need the 4 other smaller players on the court to be able to guard 1-4, and shoot well enough for Kuminga to have a free lane. The Warriors don't have the personnel for that, especially not when their best lineups have involved a non-shooter in Draymond (and *especially* when their other big wings like Klay & Wiggins took huge steps back).
This just seems like a less effective path for Kuminga to succeed than him becoming an effective wing scorer with enough of a perimeter game to have the defense play him honestly at the 3 and open up more driving lanes for him. He's already mostly there, just needs to get more consistent at what he's shown!
Should have qualified: that have shown the ability to play high level BB. I am rooting for James, but after 4 years he hasn't shown much to make me think that the problem was Steve holding him back. But, who knows, alternate realities are hard to predict, maybe Steve sends him to SC instead of starting him, he gets slowly introduced by the end of the year, has built up skills and confidence, doesn't get hurt, and figures it out while still a Warrior.
Seems like strong evidence was accentuating the strengths of the personnel he had. In the rare times a scoring C was on the roster, they scored.
Can’t remember who it was but some poster yesterday was saying that’s what they really wanted to see from Kerr. That whole optimizing the roster thing.
Warriors have had the two best shooters that ever lived on the team in all of those years, and a top 10 scoring SF for a few of those years to boot. The offense should be built around them, and not a PF. Now that we only have one of the best shooters that ever lived, the offense needs to be built different. We’ll see. If they’d decided to trade Klay for Love back in the day, these stats would be different, as would the number of trophies Kerr has earned.
That's all I'm saying!!! haha We HAD those players and Kerr schemed things up beautifully. We just don't have those players anymore, and no amount of Buddy Hields, Euro Bigs, Chris Pauls, B Podz or free agents coming off injury riddled seasons is gonna bring that back. Not even a 7' Fin (although he would be fun). We can no longer 'skill & finesse & IQ' our way through a bigger, longer, faster, and much more skilled and much smarter league. Gotta face the future and its standing right behind us. ;-)
So you want to get bigger, more skilled and somehow going after Markkanen isn't a good fit?
Also, Kuminga is smallish for a 4, but would have great size for a 3. So Kerr calling on him to improve his shooting and passing so he can be a big skilled 3...what's the problem here?
What are you upset about? Kerr just brought in two new coaches and is clearly looking to change things up. And if your point is we need more scoring from our bigs, why would you write "Not even a 7' Fin" when Lauri's whole appeal is that he's a scoring big? Having a hard time taking you seriously here.
Also, our team is very long, very skilled, and very smart. Perhaps the league in general is bigger and I don't know maybe faster but in total your generalization doesn't stick.
Interesting points, but is this on Steve or on Bob and now Mike for the roster? Put another way, who were the high scoring bigs we had that Steve didn't play or his system didn't feature?
Is *what* on Steve or Bob/Mike? To me, 4 championships are on the whole organization. The last 10 years have been an unqualified success, including a championship just 2 years ago. Now the roster is different, the coaches are different, and the team will undoubtedly play differently. Trying to act like there's a big systemic problem that needs to be fixed seems silly in light of all that.
Wow, it seems so unlike the Warriors, but the past 2 seasons had so many different sources of really bad team vibes - Poole punch, sad Wiseman, Draymond drama, Klay struggling, Wiggins gone awol, Deki's death, CP3 in the building, JK/Moody confusing minutes.) I just want more weaponized joy from our boys.
I was unsure I would be able to cheer for him (still smarting from him kicking Steph off the court in Houston), but he converted me this year with his maturity and mentorship. I wouldn't have paid him $30+m this year, but I wouldn't have been mad if we kept him for the $11m he's getting from SA.
League sources confirm that Kings and Bulls have discussed a potential sign and trade for DeMar DeRozan. Trade requires a third team, which is lined up, but there is competition for DeRozan's services.
My insignificant hypothetical take ahead of Summer League is that if the Warriors never traded the #14 pick, they would have taken Dalton Knecht (a major reason being his age). Instead he'll be on the Lakers this weekend playing against the Warriors after being taken 17th.
I like Brook, but if the Bucks are making him available for trade, it seems likely to me that he’s fallen off a cliff. Why else would a contender give up a stretch 5 with solid defense?
In the Jrue trade they at least thought they were upgrading, dumping Brook for a pick makes 0 sense unless you either want to win less or he’s no longer able to compete.
O/T: Just watched the finale of Season 3 of The Bear. This season was my favorite. It's so much about connection, and it just knows how to pull at my heart strings. As an entrepreneur who shepherded an incredibly tough business into existence, flourishing, and death, there are just so many emotions this show awakens and re-awakens in me. One of my favorite TV shows of all-time.
Ooh, I’ve been seeing commercials for it and it looked good, but I wasn’t sure if I wanted to make it my summer binge. Now I’ll have something to watch until Olympic basketball starts!
I’m on S3 E4 next. I thought S1 was a masterpiece, S2 was up and down — Cousin Ritchie’s trip and Xmas were highlights — and still easing my way into S3
LOL. Actually watching the scene in labor and delivery now. Not one of the best episodes, IMO, but the whole thing IS really good. I lived in Chicago for four years (school). I’ve never seen anything on screen since that made the city look so good. You fall in love with the characters too.
I haven't seen Season 3. And while I mostly liked the first two seasons (and thought the Ritchie and Amsterdam episodes were great) - it is a whole lot of yelling=drama, which can get grating. I get why it's not for everyone.
so glad to see him mention the part about being happy that it happened vs ending - hopefully that shows that part of his mental well being is in a better place
After reading the umpteenth article or post calling (as if it were universally accepted) that Lauri Markannen is a “top 10-20 player”, a “budding superstar”, a “franchise player”, etc, etc, I’m here to say “NO! NOT EVEN CLOSE”.
Markannen might be able to sustain his RECENT scoring improvement, after joining a tanking Utah team. In the 5 preceding years of play, with better teams, he scored much less. But, he will always have some glaring deficiencies that lower his overall value.
I looked at 4 composite rating systems, 2 of them free/public and two of the pay-for analytics variety, and Markannen ranks in the 45th to 60th best player in the NBA in all of them. (All of them underrepresent defense, which further helps Markannen).
Let’s talk about his defense and interior play. Historically, his best offensive position is SF, but his lateral movement is poor so he can’t guard opposing SF’s. Although 7’, Markannen doesn’t block shots and he’s an under-average rebounder. In his career, he’s averaged 7.2 rebounds per 32 minutes.
Markannen had a reputation in Chicago and Cleveland as SOFT. He’s the ultimate “Euro” stereotype. A man with a center’s body that plays like a guard.
Markannen has also been among the “least available” NBA starters in his 7 years, missing an average of 24 games. There are virtually no examples in NBA history where young players with persistent injury histories become more available with age.
Markannen was a disappointment after 4 seasons in Chicago and 1 in Cleveland. Ironically, Utah didn’t want him in the Donovan Mitchell trade (he was needed for salary matching), but weren’t able to flip him in the run-up to the 2022-23 season. It was in the early part of that season, only 18 months ago, when Markannen significantly elevated his offensive play.
Markannen’s timing is great (for him). As a top 50 player at 27 years old, the contract he receives this year will be in the $45M to $50M range, ~ $30M more than he’d get in this 1st year with the Dubs. But we’d need to clear $30M of our current roster to accommodate him.
I don’t believe Markannen’s recent improved offensive performance for 2 seasons on a tanking team, where he became the #1 offensive option, reliably translates to the Warriors fans’ expectations. But if they do, the Warriors would still see a huge drop-off defensively at any position Markannen plays.
Probabilistically, as a #2 offensive option behind Steph, Markannen probably does 23 ppg, 8 rpg, and shoots 39% from deep, and he’ll miss 24 games. He’ll draw a near-max salary that, assuming we can still fit in Kuminga’s rookie extension, prevents us from keeping our depth or adding new valuable players.
I’d take Lauri Markannen at $38M per year, and for no more than 2 first round picks and either Moody or Podziemski. Otherwise this deal could prevent us from being competitive for 5 years.
But what position will he play for us? Gotta be the 5, right? So he’s going to have trouble with big centers on defense. He’s a good shooter, but with Hield, does that now solve our biggest problem? And aren’t we already a good rebounding team?
I haven't wanted to dig into Lauri's numbers because I don't want to get my hopes up...
But if you could guarantee me Markkanen put up every year "23 ppg, 8 rpg, and shoots 39% from deep, and he’ll miss 24 games", I would be pretty happy as long as he's available for the playoffs. My injury worry is more like, "LM misses whole seasons and is never above-average again".
I mean, how many #2 options in the league do that? Quick spot check of the 2024 Conference Finalists... I genuinely don't know the answer...
* Jaylen Brown. 23.0 / 5.5 / 3.6 / 35.4% 3P, last 5 years averaged 64 games a season.
The exercise of comparing Markannen to the best players on Championship teams is bit strange given that, after 7 seasons, on 3 teams, Markannen has yet to play a playoff game. In Chicago and Cleveland, for 5 years, Lauri contributed to mediocrity.
And, with respect to his "championship mettle", his stats from the last 2 seasons come with the caveat that his team was tanking, where the opposing team is often resting their best.
Lauri would be, at best, the 6th best ALL-AROUND player on Boston (defense included), and none of those players made more than $36M this year.
Kyrie and Haliburton are PROVEN multi-faceted offensive players that bring way more overall value.
For 2023 Champion Denver, Lauri would be a 3rd option offensively, a la Michael Porter Jr
I'd say Lauri wins the Dubs 3-4 more games, about 2 spots in the standings. Paul George would have won us 5-7 more games.
Markannen was 9th amongst all PF’s in Total Rebound % and 35th in the league overall. He’s an above average rebounder.
It’s a part of his value. Yeah he’s a classic stretch 4. He’s not long so he doesn’t block shots. But he’s still really athletic and bouncy. He’s taller than Gallo, much more athletic, better defender, better rebounder, and a better shooter. And Gallo when he was healthy was a very good player who helped quite a few teams punch above their weight.
But it’s standing reach that matters the most for shot-blocking and rebounding. 9’ is considered the magic number. Players of that height are taught not to jump if possible to block shots. Below 9’, jumping is essential. Hand length can also figure.
6'11’ is a LONG wingspan no matter how tall you are. Being 7’ tall and having a 6’11” wingspan translates to, in Markannen’s case, a 9’1” standing reach.
Looney and Draymond each have freakishly long arms, which put them over 9’ standing reach, also. You will often see them block shots without leaving their feet. TJD, because he’s shorter has only an 8’10” standing reach, which is why you will never see him block a shot without jumping.
Markannen blocks fewer shots than his standing reach because of lesser mobility and intensity.
Did you just call TJD shorter than Looney and Draymond? He and Looney are similar, but Draymond is a few inches shorter than both of them. Where are you getting your standing reach numbers?
As someone who was against Love for Klay from day 1, I share the defensive concerns, and the phrase "The man they call the next Danilo Gallinari” is shear brilliance. It sounds like the DubNation consensus is that we'd like-to-love to have him, with many (most, including me) not willing to part with Kuminga to make it happen and with many (probably even more irrationally (also including me) who will mourn the loss of Podz if he goes for Markkennen (using the new unity spelling).
Reality check #2: by EPM (probably the most respected overall impact metric out there, with DPM) Markkanen rated as the #10 player 26 or under in the league last year, after Shai, Luka, Haliburton, Hartenstein, Tatum, Fox, Ant, Wemby, and Jalen Williams. That’s … decent company. (#28 overall, fwiw — which metrics are you looking at?)
(No major disagreements with any individual point, but I think you’re overplaying the negatives and underplaying the positives, particularly on the Warriors as constructed).
Haha, the last two paragraphs were quite a wild twist ending after 10 paragraphs slamming Lauri.
> There are virtually no examples in NBA history where young players with persistent injury histories become more available with age.
I agree injury history is a worry, but on our own team there are the examples of Steph Curry and Kevon Looney. So I’d want to see some research of the general correlation between games missed early in a career and games missed after that, or some refinement of that thesis.
Eric, if I hit a nerve, I apologize. I believe you’ve mischaracterized what I said Markannen has been injured in ALL 7 of his seasons. He’s never played more than 68 games, and last season he played 55. It's unreasonable to expect a significant change without identifying exactly why.
Respectfully, your account of Steph’s injury history and contract are inaccurate. Outside of his third season, when he had the ankle injury & surgery, in Steps's first 9 seasons he missed an average of 3 games per season, making him the league's most available player in those years. In his first 2 seasons, he missed 8 games.
The Warriors may have gotten a discount on offering him an extension while injured, but it was simply good business, as it was not a major surgery and Steph was young with no prior injury history (unlike Markannen).
Just under 26 hours until the Dubs Summer League games kick off, and we can talk about something other than Danny Ainge for a bit.
My understanding of the schedule so far for balls being put into basket rings:
GS vs. Heat - 7/6 at 3:30
GS vs. The Bronnys - 7/7 at 3:30
GS vs. Sac - 7/11 at 7:00
GS vs. PHX - 7/14 at 8 PM
GS vs. CHI - 7/15 at 7 PM
GS vs. CLE - 7/ 18 at 7 PM
GS vs. OKC - 7/20 at 7:30 PM
Playoff/consolation games - to be scheduled
Also, USA BB (Mens) has some tune up games in July as well, and the group games are 7/28, 7/31, and 8/3, and Womens games are 7/29, 8/1, and 8/4. Most of these are morning or noon games, so get your VCR ready!
Oh, and Buddy and Gui both play in semi-final games tomorrow morning for the Olympic Qualifying Tourneys, if you are the type to watch a mid level international team because they have a Warrior on the team.
Looking forward to watching something more dynamic than Perk's salary spreadsheet and Eric's FA tracker soon (not that those aren't great resources)!
My ranking of players I would like to see remain on the Dubs roster this season, based entirely on how fun they are to watch and root for:
1. Steph
2. GP2
3. Podziemski
4. Draymond
5. Looney
6. Kuminga
I think Moody and Wiggins are fine, sometimes even good, and I would love to see more of the monster dunk artist version of Wiggins we saw in '22, but I would not feel nearly as sad to see them go as I would feel about Young Glove or Loondawg.
Unfortunately, I'm almost guaranteed to be disappointed if we do any more trades.
It's not the trades that worry me. It's the coaching. Kerr employs a 'force to fit' style of his system on players instead of letting them play free and innovating. The new guys can bring a different energy and look to the team. Replacing catch and shoot Klay with Hield should not be the major focus. We have other players who should impact the game like Podz, Melton, and Anderson, plus Moody and JK.
Another worry I have is Post getting left in the gleague. I believe this guy has what it takes to play in the NBA. He brings a different dimension to the team. Rim protection and stretching the floor. TJD cannot do this and neither can Looney. I would hate to see him not being used on the team as he's done with many big men. We need a new look.
My list is similar, but with Gui in there as my irrational love to watch guy.
I think Melton and Anderson are going to be loads of fun, as well as Buddy’s sniping.
Gui was on the first draft of my list, but I trimmed it down to be a bit less greedy. I haven't watched him play enough to get as attached as I have to the other guys. But I'd gladly take him over most vet-min free agents.
EDIT: P.S. I am also looking forward to seeing how well SloMo fits into the team. Not as sure about Hield (I'm afraid I'm going to be annoyed at his defense almost as often as I enjoy his offense) and I don't really know what Melton's game is like yet.
Yes, it will give a different look to the tired Warrior 'system' providing Kerr doesn't force the fit onto these new players.
Apparently the best odds of Markkanens team to start next season are the Jazz and Warriors at +250. Updated a few hours ago… I’m not familiar with gambling but I have heard Vegas tends to know things before they happen.
I'm starting to believe that Ainge never had any intention of making a trade and was just trying to see if he could fleece the Ws or someone else. I hope Dunleavy won't bite. An overpay may be defensible, but let's not pretend this guy is the final piece to a championship squad. Love to have Markannen, but a bad trade is a bad trade.
I’ve really liked Markkanen the handful of times I’ve seen him play but I don’t feel like I can really judge his D. Can anyone make a case for why/how he is much better than Saric?
Thx
This is the time of the year when I usually rant about Nico Mannion, but for a welcome change I won't. I tell you only that he's not mad at Podz for copying his hairstyle (he now looks like a tiny Valanciunas), that he plays for Pallacanestro Varese (ugliest city in Italy), and that he does 20.3 pts, 6.6 ast and 37% threes. And he still loves you all.
tx for update. i'm happy for Nico and I'll take an ugly city in Italy vs. a ..., well, you know.
I just read an absolutely fascinating article about Zach Lavine which has me viewing him in a very positive way.
https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2024/06/zach-lavine-the-wages-of-perception/
It’s a good article with some fair
points.I do think at certain points in his career he ascended above his reputation and was a legit good player.
But the last two years the Bulls have had a decent roster. One year Lavine was healthy, one year he was not. Didn’t matter. They were basically the same team either way. If a 43M player can be out 3/4 of a season and a team doesn’t notice, what is he?
If the Warriors got him there’s a chance it could work out and he could help. But evidence would suggest a cap on the ceiling and a decent downside.
It’s just a really tough bet to make and that’s the math the whole league is doing. He limits what other moves you can do due to his salary, and you might be stuck if it doesn’t work because he’s so hard to trade.
The Warriors CANT bet on Lavine without getting enough picks to open up other options.
4 years ago his stats were amazing! Steady decline since. Interesting to question if he was allowed to be a pure scorer whether he could bring it back.
If they gave us 2 1sts w/ him for Wiggins, we could re route them for Lauri and pray he gets healthy… need to cut salary somewhere though.
Lavine quickly went from derided to slightly underrated with some of these FA/Trades/Proposed Trades (Shoutout Markkanen) going on right now. Again my preference would still be to keep Wiggins but if they absolutely have to make a trade, I’d go for a distressed asset like Lavine rather than completely hamstrunging ourselves for the next 8 years in terms of giving up valuable draft capital
LaVine's contract was bad before, but the new CBA has made it absolutely toxic. New NBA free agency is starting to look like a game of Hot Potato.
Then it’ll go back to just bad when the new TV money comes in.
The Pelicans have dangled forward Brandon Ingram in trade talks, and the former No. 2 overall pick has drawn some interest, including from the Sacramento Kings. However, there was a growing sense heading into the weekend that Sacramento would pivot and try to acquire DeMar DeRozan via a sign-and-trade agreement with the Chicago Bulls, league sources told HoopsHype, and as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported.
It’s worth noting Wendell Carter Jr. is among several center targets the Pelicans are eying, as previously reported on HoopsHype. Free agent Daniel Theis has also been linked to New Orleans as a cheaper alternative.
https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-rumors-demar-derozan-brandon-ingram-buddy-hield-malik-beasley-free-agency-trades/
Additional details:
-Mavs wanted Malik Beasley before they got Klay. Pistons want Beasley, but for now, they in the middle of trade discussions with other teams to act as a salary dump destination for draft pick compensation. Pelicans are also interested in Beasley.
-Before joining the Warriors, Buddy Hield received interest from the Pistons, Nuggets, Heat, and the Lakers.
-76ers have expressed interest in various free agents like Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith, Reggie Bullock, and Lester Quinones.
-Cavs and 76ers are interested in getting Dorian Finney-Smith from the Nets.
-Mavs are considering getting back Dinwiddie and Dennis Smith Jr.. They are also interested in Malachi Flynn.
-Suns are trying to get back Josh Okogie.
Hell yeah LQ get paid man
I'm still as high on BI as I am on LM, just because he has taken on so much responsibility for play making in NOP. I think his shooting numbers may have dipped do to this. But play making from a guy his size is a really nice thing to have and it helps free up Curry more than LM would. But I realize his relationship with Kerr may be fractured. Oh well.
Not trying to get anyone hot under the collar about Steve Kerr. I’d just like to bring a few statistical receipts to make an observation which I find pretty revealing.
I took GSW Stats from 2014-15 to 2023-24 (10 seasons) and League Stats from 2014-15 and 2023-24 to see if there was any change over time. I asked a simple question:
How many Power Forwards or Centers on each team scored (a) 10-14.9 pts p/gm, (b) 15-19.9 pts p/gm and (c) 20+ pts p/gm. Straightforward enough.
League, 2014-15
(a)10+14.9 pts p/gm 1.45 dudes per team
(b)15-19.9 pts p/gm 0.5 dudes per team
(c)20+ pts p/gm 0.17 dudes per team (only 5 players: Blake, Bosch, AD, Boogie & Aldridge, 5 All-Stars and 4 All-NBA)
Total 2.17 Power Forwards or Centers scoring 10+ pts p/gm per team.
NO TEAM had zero players on this list.
Only 5 teams had only one player that fit this criteria.
League, 2023-24
(a)10+14.9 pts p/gm 1.31 no change
(b)15-19.9 pts p/gm 0.52 no change
(c)20+ pts p/gm 0.76 BIG CHANGE!!
We go from 5 ‘Bigs’ in the whole league scoring 20+ to 21 players (+ Sabonis just missing the cut), including 12 All-Stars and 7 All-NBA.
ZERO teams had less than 2 ‘Bigs’ on their team that scored 10+ pts p/gm.
You have to admit, this is a substantial change. Basically a 400% increase in the number of impact ‘Bigs’.
GSW
2014-15 Dray (11.7) Mo Buckets (10.4)
2015-16 Dray (14)
2016-17 Dray (10.2)
2017-18 Dray (11)
2018-19 Boogie (16.3)
2019-20 Paschall (14)
2020-21 Wiseman (11.5)
2021-22 ZERO
2022-23 ZERO
2023-24 JK (16.1)
Averages
(a)10+14.9 pts p/gm 7 times in 10 years
(b)15-19.9 pts p/gm 2 times in 10 years
(c)20+ pts p/gm 0 times in 10 years
Total = less than 1 Big per season scoring min 10 pts
I could even throw out 2 of these. Boogie was a ring chasing vet who fell into our lap and whose personality and offensive game were so big he could score 16 a game no matter what system he was playing in. And Paschall scored 14 as a rookie in the everyone-was-injured season. I mean, someone had to score. Based on the personnel in these seasons, had Boogie and Paschall not been present, it was unlikely any other Big would have eclipsed 10+ pts.
I am merely trying to point out that the Warriors’ stats vs the league’s stats are an outlier, that they are statistically unlikely and begging for an explanation.
As off the reservation as these stats are, the first 5 years have a perfectly reasonable explanation: the trio of Steph-Klay-Dray + Kerr’s revolutionary offensive scheme built on top of that trio with the monster talent of KD thrown on top like a 2-ton cherry. The Warriors brought so much damn firepower from the PG-SG-SF positions that they made scoring from the ‘Big’ positions practically irrelevant. Conclusion: stats from first 5 years vs. league were outliers but were derived from real action on the court and from Kerr’s clipboard. It was a revolution, and it was beautiful.
HOWEVER, when you remove KD, and remove Klay due to injury, and add years onto Steph & Dray, you remove the ‘real action’ that had been the root cause of the outlier stats. Last year, no NBA team had less than 2 players score 10+ pts p/gm. In two of the last three years, GSW has had ZERO. If the players on the court are no longer the reason for the outlier stats (ie, we no longer have the overwhelming firepower from the PG-SG-SF positions that we once had), then we are left with Kerr’s clipboard.
My conclusion is that Kerr’s genius was deriving an offensive scheme from a once-in-a-lifetime grouping of players and that he is still trying in so many ways to replicate the action on the court.
Fact: Kerr said JK needs to learn how to play the 3 more if he wants more time on the court. Is that because JK can’t play power forward or because the offense isn’t schemed to allow for the power forward (or a center) to be a 20+ scorer? I know saying “Jonathon Kuminga” is like shouting “Atkins Diet” in a crowded conference of Dieticians and Heart Surgeons, but the evidence seems fairly clear. You can bet all the free agent Power Forwards and Centers around the league the last 5 years know this. If you’re playing for Kerr, and you’re a PF or C, leave your expectations about scoring in the locker room.
Sorry, I love Kerr. But until I see evidence otherwise, evidence that bears itself out statistically, I will continue to believe that Kerr/Curry/Green are banking on the old playbook, that they will (schematically) continue to accentuate scoring from the PG-SG-SF at the expense of scoring from the bigs. We will continue to finesse the basket rather than attack the basket. And we will continue to believe that a Dray/Looney lineup can compete with the 20 or so next generation of bigs that score 20+ points on a nightly basis.
Well, those are my receipts. Go ahead and throw me on the BBQ. I’m used to it. :-) LOL
It is strange that the Warriors play such a Moreyball way now. In Kerr’s first two amazing years the warriors were 9 & 7 at points in the paint. Durant truly made them the jump shooting team Charles mistook them for. They’ve been bottom ten since Durant left. However, TJD changed that downward trend a bit so we’ll need to see what happens next with Kenny leaving.
Who are the scoring big men that Kerr has been holding back from scoring? Feels like a personnel issue not coaching.
This year, Kerr had Saric and TJD and featured both of them in actions added/emphasized in the playbook (pick and pop, and a lot more PNR, respectively). He’s changed his offense in exactly the way you would want. They both scored 17 pts/36 min
the roster/coaching to big to unpack here, but a couple thoughts.
In 2022-23, JK was a 17 pt per 36. But when you only play 20 min per gm., your under 10. If JK plays 2 more minutes a game in his first two seasons, he gets over 10 per/gm. The question is: what made another guard's 2 min per game that much more valuable than JK's, Dario's or TJD's? I'm not saying Kerr is intentionally suppressing scoring from those bigs. I am saying that the system, the philosophy, the style of game he is most comfortable with is like a wet heavy wool blanket on the minutes played and sets/actions within games for those bigs who CAN score.
For example, Kerr likes a backdoor cut to an open basket. Who doesn't? But I don't think he is as fond of a guy like JK just bulldozing his way in the lane for a bucket or trip to the line. We are in the bottom of the league in getting to the line. That's the statistical way of saying we don't put pressure on the rim. I believe Kerr likes the game to be free-flowing and not get bogged down in stoppage for free throws. I DO, TOO! It's not always pretty, but sometimes slowing the game down and getting dirty inside is what you need, especially when your stars are older and might enjoy a breath.
The point is that there is a beautiful game of basketball inside Kerr's head, and without making conscious and intentional changes, he is prone to default to managing the style of game that he loves. He isn't ever going to default to "give it to the big guy and let him work inside, then do it again." Why did a rookie in Podz play more minutes per game than 3rd year JK? Because Podz plays the game Steve sees in his head. Podz plays the style that Steve FEELS comfortable with.
It's not about smarts. It's about what is in Steve's gut. And the only way to counter that is for Steve to INTENTIONALLY allow the players to play in ways that might make him uncomfortable. I would go so far as to say the more Steve feels uncomfortable in game, the better we'll do. So when he wants to yank JK for Buddy, he thinks twice. When he wants to yank TJD for Podz, he hesitates.
It's like that Curry crazy dribble stupid 3-point shot against the Clippers. Kerr had his arms up in the air like, "What the H are you doing???" Then saw the ball go in, sat down, and embraced that he was living in a new world. Today, he needs to see JK go one on three, dunk over all three, get fouled and sink the free throw. Sit down and smile and not yank him because he didn't hit an open De'Anthony Melton with a skip pass.
My issue with Kerr is that he is human like the rest of us. He is one of the great coaches. I think his coaching in the playoffs may be underrated. But we all have our comfort zones and after a decade, it's not like any of us don't know how Steve Kerr likes to play. And it's not like any of us can't see how the league has changed. But we are on the outside looking in now.
Kerr has said two things. 1. JK needs to play the 3 better so he can get in more rotations. 2. That he needs to "simplify" his read-and-react game for the young guys. This makes me nervous. It says that JK needs to play the 3 if he is going to be a 20+ pt p/gm scorer because the system doesn't allow that from a big position. And two, that the system is fine as is, it's the players that can't keep up with it and we'll just dumb down the system to accommodate those players. Sorry, that seems like the same old story. And until that changes, bigs are going to have to get their buckets like Salmon swimming upstream to spawn. "Don't worry, it's just an immense steady wall of water in your way. You can do it, boys."
Kerr needs another Curry-Clipper A HA moment, a religious-level epiphany. But if TJD's dunk over Wemby wasn't enough, what is?
I think Kerr would happily shut up and sit back down if Kuminga goes 1 on 3 and dunks it through contact. If big men across the league are scoring a lot of points per game, that doesn't mean that "let Kuminga iso more" makes for a great offense. It could mean teams have more star bigs across the league (that the warriors don't have), it probably means they run more pick and rolls, it could mean they're better at having 4-out or 5-out lineups that open up space at the rim, etc. Where are those increased points across the league coming from; open dunks, bullyball post-ups, or modern shooting centers?
For the Warriors to play Kuminga as "a big" center, they probably need Kuminga to be able to guard a big center, and need the 4 other smaller players on the court to be able to guard 1-4, and shoot well enough for Kuminga to have a free lane. The Warriors don't have the personnel for that, especially not when their best lineups have involved a non-shooter in Draymond (and *especially* when their other big wings like Klay & Wiggins took huge steps back).
This just seems like a less effective path for Kuminga to succeed than him becoming an effective wing scorer with enough of a perimeter game to have the defense play him honestly at the 3 and open up more driving lanes for him. He's already mostly there, just needs to get more consistent at what he's shown!
Not like he kept Bogut or Zaza on the bench.
Should have qualified: that have shown the ability to play high level BB. I am rooting for James, but after 4 years he hasn't shown much to make me think that the problem was Steve holding him back. But, who knows, alternate realities are hard to predict, maybe Steve sends him to SC instead of starting him, he gets slowly introduced by the end of the year, has built up skills and confidence, doesn't get hurt, and figures it out while still a Warrior.
Please don't use "off the reservation"
Lot of nice stat work.
I would say JK is not a power forward which is why Kerr wants him playing a 3.
Other than that, I agree with what DFIB said.
So you’re saying get Markannen? Jk good post, I appreciate the effort
Seems like strong evidence was accentuating the strengths of the personnel he had. In the rare times a scoring C was on the roster, they scored.
Can’t remember who it was but some poster yesterday was saying that’s what they really wanted to see from Kerr. That whole optimizing the roster thing.
Warriors have had the two best shooters that ever lived on the team in all of those years, and a top 10 scoring SF for a few of those years to boot. The offense should be built around them, and not a PF. Now that we only have one of the best shooters that ever lived, the offense needs to be built different. We’ll see. If they’d decided to trade Klay for Love back in the day, these stats would be different, as would the number of trophies Kerr has earned.
That's all I'm saying!!! haha We HAD those players and Kerr schemed things up beautifully. We just don't have those players anymore, and no amount of Buddy Hields, Euro Bigs, Chris Pauls, B Podz or free agents coming off injury riddled seasons is gonna bring that back. Not even a 7' Fin (although he would be fun). We can no longer 'skill & finesse & IQ' our way through a bigger, longer, faster, and much more skilled and much smarter league. Gotta face the future and its standing right behind us. ;-)
So you want to get bigger, more skilled and somehow going after Markkanen isn't a good fit?
Also, Kuminga is smallish for a 4, but would have great size for a 3. So Kerr calling on him to improve his shooting and passing so he can be a big skilled 3...what's the problem here?
Not a lot of consistency in your thoughts.
What are you upset about? Kerr just brought in two new coaches and is clearly looking to change things up. And if your point is we need more scoring from our bigs, why would you write "Not even a 7' Fin" when Lauri's whole appeal is that he's a scoring big? Having a hard time taking you seriously here.
Also, our team is very long, very skilled, and very smart. Perhaps the league in general is bigger and I don't know maybe faster but in total your generalization doesn't stick.
Interesting points, but is this on Steve or on Bob and now Mike for the roster? Put another way, who were the high scoring bigs we had that Steve didn't play or his system didn't feature?
Is *what* on Steve or Bob/Mike? To me, 4 championships are on the whole organization. The last 10 years have been an unqualified success, including a championship just 2 years ago. Now the roster is different, the coaches are different, and the team will undoubtedly play differently. Trying to act like there's a big systemic problem that needs to be fixed seems silly in light of all that.
Wow, it seems so unlike the Warriors, but the past 2 seasons had so many different sources of really bad team vibes - Poole punch, sad Wiseman, Draymond drama, Klay struggling, Wiggins gone awol, Deki's death, CP3 in the building, JK/Moody confusing minutes.) I just want more weaponized joy from our boys.
CP3 in the building? We would have died without him.
I was unsure I would be able to cheer for him (still smarting from him kicking Steph off the court in Houston), but he converted me this year with his maturity and mentorship. I wouldn't have paid him $30+m this year, but I wouldn't have been mad if we kept him for the $11m he's getting from SA.
The young guys really appreciated CP3. Podz especially has said a lot of great things about playing with him.
My recollection may be wrong, but I remember them riding a wave of inspired play following Deki's passing. Otherwise in agreement.
Hard to keep the good vibes forever. Even Tony Parker was acting like a little biotch on the way out of San Antonio. We'll be back.
Only 319 comments. Thats how I knew we hadn’t traded for anyone today.
Hahahah 100%
League sources confirm that Kings and Bulls have discussed a potential sign and trade for DeMar DeRozan. Trade requires a third team, which is lined up, but there is competition for DeRozan's services.
https://x.com/James_HamNBA/status/1809395329944702977
Oh my I hope they win this battle. That will NOT move the needle for them, and it takes them out of the Lauttery (yes I stole that from this board)
Not sure it changes much since chances are still that Jazz keeps him.
Who do you think the Kings will have to trade away if the trade goes through? My guess is: Barnes, Lyles OR Duarte, and a pick or two.
Does Barnes really have much left in the tank?
My insignificant hypothetical take ahead of Summer League is that if the Warriors never traded the #14 pick, they would have taken Dalton Knecht (a major reason being his age). Instead he'll be on the Lakers this weekend playing against the Warriors after being taken 17th.
Hmmm….thats interesting. Kel’el Ware would’ve been hard to pass on.
Knecht as a scorer w size would’ve been high up there too
If ainge keeps asking for too much could we pivot for B Lopez instead with just loon, gp2 and filler?
I like Brook, but if the Bucks are making him available for trade, it seems likely to me that he’s fallen off a cliff. Why else would a contender give up a stretch 5 with solid defense?
In the Jrue trade they at least thought they were upgrading, dumping Brook for a pick makes 0 sense unless you either want to win less or he’s no longer able to compete.
Okay, then what's the basketball reason beyond assuming they're bad at their job?
O/T: Just watched the finale of Season 3 of The Bear. This season was my favorite. It's so much about connection, and it just knows how to pull at my heart strings. As an entrepreneur who shepherded an incredibly tough business into existence, flourishing, and death, there are just so many emotions this show awakens and re-awakens in me. One of my favorite TV shows of all-time.
Sort of related but not really: I was 20 yards away from wild Alaskan grizzly bears yesterday. Pretty amazing experience
I've never heard 'amazing' as a synonym for 'terrifying' before.
Glad you weren't on the menu yesterday. :)
That is too close for me! Tell me you had some kind of protection like a car or something around you.
Also that is way awesome.
Ooh, I’ve been seeing commercials for it and it looked good, but I wasn’t sure if I wanted to make it my summer binge. Now I’ll have something to watch until Olympic basketball starts!
I'm not exaggerating when I say every episode of Season 3 made me cry.
I’m on S3 E4 next. I thought S1 was a masterpiece, S2 was up and down — Cousin Ritchie’s trip and Xmas were highlights — and still easing my way into S3
If Season 3 were an NBA game, I'd say it has a Curry flurry in a hot 3rd quarter.
every second counts
LOL. Actually watching the scene in labor and delivery now. Not one of the best episodes, IMO, but the whole thing IS really good. I lived in Chicago for four years (school). I’ve never seen anything on screen since that made the city look so good. You fall in love with the characters too.
Good to hear after reading mixed reviews. Though some of those sites also trashed season 2 which I loved.
This show is crazy consistent. I really don't get the bad (audience) reviews. People are weird.
I haven't seen Season 3. And while I mostly liked the first two seasons (and thought the Ritchie and Amsterdam episodes were great) - it is a whole lot of yelling=drama, which can get grating. I get why it's not for everyone.
Totally understood!
Klay’s instagram farewell to the Bay: https://www.threads.net/@edcrisostomo/post/C9DpiR0x2YR?xmt=AQGzl244nQ_3SRQVl_WbCZM8jkTYENSgIa_oTqSuZKn49A
Classy
No pics with Kerr or any front office (besides a Myers cameo in a background) 👀
so glad to see him mention the part about being happy that it happened vs ending - hopefully that shows that part of his mental well being is in a better place
Im sure he’ll be pretty happy. Could be worse. He’s worth 250m + and seems to have a good family life.
Remaining free agents and who to watch: https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1dw7id5/remaining_free_agents_and_who_to_watch/
MARKANNEN REALITY CHECK
Or “The man they call the next Danilo Gallinari”
After reading the umpteenth article or post calling (as if it were universally accepted) that Lauri Markannen is a “top 10-20 player”, a “budding superstar”, a “franchise player”, etc, etc, I’m here to say “NO! NOT EVEN CLOSE”.
Markannen might be able to sustain his RECENT scoring improvement, after joining a tanking Utah team. In the 5 preceding years of play, with better teams, he scored much less. But, he will always have some glaring deficiencies that lower his overall value.
I looked at 4 composite rating systems, 2 of them free/public and two of the pay-for analytics variety, and Markannen ranks in the 45th to 60th best player in the NBA in all of them. (All of them underrepresent defense, which further helps Markannen).
Let’s talk about his defense and interior play. Historically, his best offensive position is SF, but his lateral movement is poor so he can’t guard opposing SF’s. Although 7’, Markannen doesn’t block shots and he’s an under-average rebounder. In his career, he’s averaged 7.2 rebounds per 32 minutes.
Markannen had a reputation in Chicago and Cleveland as SOFT. He’s the ultimate “Euro” stereotype. A man with a center’s body that plays like a guard.
Markannen has also been among the “least available” NBA starters in his 7 years, missing an average of 24 games. There are virtually no examples in NBA history where young players with persistent injury histories become more available with age.
Markannen was a disappointment after 4 seasons in Chicago and 1 in Cleveland. Ironically, Utah didn’t want him in the Donovan Mitchell trade (he was needed for salary matching), but weren’t able to flip him in the run-up to the 2022-23 season. It was in the early part of that season, only 18 months ago, when Markannen significantly elevated his offensive play.
Markannen’s timing is great (for him). As a top 50 player at 27 years old, the contract he receives this year will be in the $45M to $50M range, ~ $30M more than he’d get in this 1st year with the Dubs. But we’d need to clear $30M of our current roster to accommodate him.
I don’t believe Markannen’s recent improved offensive performance for 2 seasons on a tanking team, where he became the #1 offensive option, reliably translates to the Warriors fans’ expectations. But if they do, the Warriors would still see a huge drop-off defensively at any position Markannen plays.
Probabilistically, as a #2 offensive option behind Steph, Markannen probably does 23 ppg, 8 rpg, and shoots 39% from deep, and he’ll miss 24 games. He’ll draw a near-max salary that, assuming we can still fit in Kuminga’s rookie extension, prevents us from keeping our depth or adding new valuable players.
I’d take Lauri Markannen at $38M per year, and for no more than 2 first round picks and either Moody or Podziemski. Otherwise this deal could prevent us from being competitive for 5 years.
But what position will he play for us? Gotta be the 5, right? So he’s going to have trouble with big centers on defense. He’s a good shooter, but with Hield, does that now solve our biggest problem? And aren’t we already a good rebounding team?
So negative about a player who has made the same number of all star games and All-NBA teams as the legend Andrew Wiggins
I haven't wanted to dig into Lauri's numbers because I don't want to get my hopes up...
But if you could guarantee me Markkanen put up every year "23 ppg, 8 rpg, and shoots 39% from deep, and he’ll miss 24 games", I would be pretty happy as long as he's available for the playoffs. My injury worry is more like, "LM misses whole seasons and is never above-average again".
I mean, how many #2 options in the league do that? Quick spot check of the 2024 Conference Finalists... I genuinely don't know the answer...
* Jaylen Brown. 23.0 / 5.5 / 3.6 / 35.4% 3P, last 5 years averaged 64 games a season.
* Kyrie. 25.6 / 5.0 / 5.2 / 41.1% 3P, missed 24 games
* Haliburton. 20.1 / 3.9 / 10.9 / 36.4% 3P, missed 14 games.
* KAT. 21.8 / 8.3 / 3.0 / 41.6% 3P, missed 20 games.
So it seems to me that Probabilistic Lauri would be right up there with #2 options on championship level teams. It's not easy to hit those numbers.
One more spot check. 2022 GSW, take your pick which one is #2
* Poole. 18.5 / 3.4 / 4.0, 36.4% 3P. Missed 6 games.
* Klay. 20.4 / 3.9 / 2.8, 38.5% 3P. Missed 50 games.
Eric,
Ok, interesting questions.
The exercise of comparing Markannen to the best players on Championship teams is bit strange given that, after 7 seasons, on 3 teams, Markannen has yet to play a playoff game. In Chicago and Cleveland, for 5 years, Lauri contributed to mediocrity.
And, with respect to his "championship mettle", his stats from the last 2 seasons come with the caveat that his team was tanking, where the opposing team is often resting their best.
Lauri would be, at best, the 6th best ALL-AROUND player on Boston (defense included), and none of those players made more than $36M this year.
Kyrie and Haliburton are PROVEN multi-faceted offensive players that bring way more overall value.
For 2023 Champion Denver, Lauri would be a 3rd option offensively, a la Michael Porter Jr
I'd say Lauri wins the Dubs 3-4 more games, about 2 spots in the standings. Paul George would have won us 5-7 more games.
Also, someone pointed this out (sorry I forget whom and it's hard to look up) that Lauri missed a decent amount of games because tanking.
Markannen was 9th amongst all PF’s in Total Rebound % and 35th in the league overall. He’s an above average rebounder.
It’s a part of his value. Yeah he’s a classic stretch 4. He’s not long so he doesn’t block shots. But he’s still really athletic and bouncy. He’s taller than Gallo, much more athletic, better defender, better rebounder, and a better shooter. And Gallo when he was healthy was a very good player who helped quite a few teams punch above their weight.
Looks like for forwards, Lauri % of OREBs was 91st #-ile last year and 87th previous, %DREB 86th %-ile and 95th %-ile.
He's actually statistically one of the best rebounding forwards in the league.
Block % were 40th and 56th %-ile, so it's not a strength, but not completely absent.
Great. A really good stretch 4. But does he play alongside TJD?
His wingspan is only 6'11 (1" shorter than his height) so that makes sense. Quite a collection of Warriors with longer wingspans:
Looney 7'4 (!!!)
Slo Mo 7'3 (!!)
TJD 7'3 (!)
Post 7'2.5
Draymond 7'1 (!!)
Moody 7'1 (!)
Wiggs 7'0
Kuminga 7'0
Gui Santos 7'0
I think that covers it, but may have missed someone.
But it’s standing reach that matters the most for shot-blocking and rebounding. 9’ is considered the magic number. Players of that height are taught not to jump if possible to block shots. Below 9’, jumping is essential. Hand length can also figure.
6'11’ is a LONG wingspan no matter how tall you are. Being 7’ tall and having a 6’11” wingspan translates to, in Markannen’s case, a 9’1” standing reach.
Looney and Draymond each have freakishly long arms, which put them over 9’ standing reach, also. You will often see them block shots without leaving their feet. TJD, because he’s shorter has only an 8’10” standing reach, which is why you will never see him block a shot without jumping.
Markannen blocks fewer shots than his standing reach because of lesser mobility and intensity.
Wings
Did you just call TJD shorter than Looney and Draymond? He and Looney are similar, but Draymond is a few inches shorter than both of them. Where are you getting your standing reach numbers?
As someone who was against Love for Klay from day 1, I share the defensive concerns, and the phrase "The man they call the next Danilo Gallinari” is shear brilliance. It sounds like the DubNation consensus is that we'd like-to-love to have him, with many (most, including me) not willing to part with Kuminga to make it happen and with many (probably even more irrationally (also including me) who will mourn the loss of Podz if he goes for Markkennen (using the new unity spelling).
Markannen reality check #1: it’s Markkanen. 😊
Reality check #2: by EPM (probably the most respected overall impact metric out there, with DPM) Markkanen rated as the #10 player 26 or under in the league last year, after Shai, Luka, Haliburton, Hartenstein, Tatum, Fox, Ant, Wemby, and Jalen Williams. That’s … decent company. (#28 overall, fwiw — which metrics are you looking at?)
(No major disagreements with any individual point, but I think you’re overplaying the negatives and underplaying the positives, particularly on the Warriors as constructed).
Haha, the last two paragraphs were quite a wild twist ending after 10 paragraphs slamming Lauri.
> There are virtually no examples in NBA history where young players with persistent injury histories become more available with age.
I agree injury history is a worry, but on our own team there are the examples of Steph Curry and Kevon Looney. So I’d want to see some research of the general correlation between games missed early in a career and games missed after that, or some refinement of that thesis.
Eric, if I hit a nerve, I apologize. I believe you’ve mischaracterized what I said Markannen has been injured in ALL 7 of his seasons. He’s never played more than 68 games, and last season he played 55. It's unreasonable to expect a significant change without identifying exactly why.
Respectfully, your account of Steph’s injury history and contract are inaccurate. Outside of his third season, when he had the ankle injury & surgery, in Steps's first 9 seasons he missed an average of 3 games per season, making him the league's most available player in those years. In his first 2 seasons, he missed 8 games.
The Warriors may have gotten a discount on offering him an extension while injured, but it was simply good business, as it was not a major surgery and Steph was young with no prior injury history (unlike Markannen).
Just under 26 hours until the Dubs Summer League games kick off, and we can talk about something other than Danny Ainge for a bit.
My understanding of the schedule so far for balls being put into basket rings:
GS vs. Heat - 7/6 at 3:30
GS vs. The Bronnys - 7/7 at 3:30
GS vs. Sac - 7/11 at 7:00
GS vs. PHX - 7/14 at 8 PM
GS vs. CHI - 7/15 at 7 PM
GS vs. CLE - 7/ 18 at 7 PM
GS vs. OKC - 7/20 at 7:30 PM
Playoff/consolation games - to be scheduled
Also, USA BB (Mens) has some tune up games in July as well, and the group games are 7/28, 7/31, and 8/3, and Womens games are 7/29, 8/1, and 8/4. Most of these are morning or noon games, so get your VCR ready!
Oh, and Buddy and Gui both play in semi-final games tomorrow morning for the Olympic Qualifying Tourneys, if you are the type to watch a mid level international team because they have a Warrior on the team.
Looking forward to watching something more dynamic than Perk's salary spreadsheet and Eric's FA tracker soon (not that those aren't great resources)!
USA Basketball Showcase (tune up games) schedule; times converted to PDT for you dilettantes:
7/10 vs Canada 7:30pm (Vegas)
7/15 vs Australia 9am (Abu Dhabi)
7/17 vs Serbia 9am (Abu Dhabi)
7/20 vs South Sudan 12pm (London)
7/22 vs Germany 12pm (London)
Woo hoo!
I’ll be going to all the games this weekend. If Reece doesn’t throw down a monster dunk, I will demand everyone be fired!