Incredibly informative video. Sympathetic Air Dunking (SAD) is something that has been a mystery to me for decades. The insight given into this kind of esoteric technical basketball knowledge is what keeps me glued to DNHQ. Love your work EA.
In my humble opinion, I see no reason why they need 4 guys standing around watching JK and making it so easy for the defense to help.
They get in trouble when they stop moving.
They need to attack in transition and keep their motion going. They are deep and playing a lot of guys so they can also wear down the defense by not letting them stand around and also create better offensive rebounding possibilities by constantly moving.
They are the smallest team in the NBA and they need to be different.
I think there are some opportunities to have some weak side actions, like a hammer screen, to take advantage of the weak side defender's early rotation and focus.
If you've got JK in the post, a strong side split cut keeps 2 strong side defenders occupied, and it's the goalie and one other weak side defender guarding half the floor. Can/should easily be able to get a good shooter an open 3pt shot on the wing or even the corner.
Another option is to go for the full 5-out experience with Dray at the top of the key, Moody in the strong corner, Podz in the weak corner, and Steph on the weak wing.
One of your best E1Ps! And it addressed a question I have been musing about lately. I could see the defenses were adapting because JK was having trouble getting those "easy" (for him) paths to the rim, but I didn't have a clear picture of why until now. Huge thanks, EA!
Excellent analysis. The defensive changes were most obvious from Charlotte (Warriors really need to hire defensive coach Steve Clifford) which really junked up the Warriors offense. We will surely see this in New York tonight. Why don't the Warriors use it against powerful drivers such as Kuzma, or even (cough) Lebron. Might keep Podz from putting his health at risk taking charges ?
Great E1P. The mid-range fall-away is really falling nicely for JK, and great to see how he's learning to pass when defenses are keyed on him. Still, I think he needs another counter - a sneaky scoop shot or pump fake when the open pass out isn't there.
So far in his career, his efficiency is always better when he gets actual minutes (see tweet). Which makes sense, despite the Warriors constantly messaging that Moody's whole thing is that they can throw him into any situation cold and he'll be ready (as if that would actually be the case for a 21 year old).
I haven't really seen that apply to Moody. There's also the info we've gotten this year where we've had reports multiple times where Kerr will tell a player they're not going to play in a game. I think Kerr knows ahead of time if Moody will play a decent chunk of minutes or not.
Loved this E1P, best of the year so far! Really great to see that even though Kuminga has made the scouting report it hasn't slowed him down too much, that shows a lot of growth!
Really great job, EA! Are these solutions similar to how Milwaukee responded to the Giannis wall?
I have an idea for what I think would be a great (and timely) video: Can Moses fill Wiggs’ shoes? It would interesting to compare their strengths/weaknesses and see MM in the Wiggins role in offensive sets.
Moses can easily fill Wiggins "pre-not-sucking" minutes. He's going to be a discount version of "actually good" Wiggins minutes. But I think this is his natural fit and it's going to give him an opportunity to do what Kuminga did last year when Wiggins was out for an extended period. (If he is; I'm still holding out hope this won't be a long-term thing like last year, because ugh).
That's a great breakdown. My view in past couple of years is that Warriors could take better advantage of Kuminga's ability to score, but I never claimed he was Charles Barkley as a passer out of the post. When he makes the right read at right pace it looks great, but it's definitely a work in progress. The mad-dash downcourt can yield dramatic benefits but is also risky. Going one on three and missing with no offensive rebound available is an all or nothing proposition. To be used with care.
Didn’t really want to mention it prior bc I’ve seen no further evidence to support but since it’s come up… I’m assuming the Reddit person heard it from one of the Locked On Warrior podcasters who swears it to be true. (Was stated a few weeks ago.)
This is a great video. Definitely explains why his points are down. He's averaging 3.8 assists the past 10 games (career 1.6) and 4.5 the last 6 games. So he's adjusting and still being productive.
Honestly, I'm kind of excited for the change, for a couple of reasons:
1. His passing is getting better, and more importantly, he's starting to recognize when passing is a better option.
2. He isn't pouting or hanging his head *at all*, despite the fact it's much harder for him to score in the halfcourt now.
He's staying engaged, and his energy level is very high. Bodes well for him continuing to grow into a team game, rather than a primarily one-on-one game.
Ironic that you would call it a "free" roster spot; I don't know the details off-hand, but we're looking at a 5-6x multiplier. At $6.3 million, that's a big multiplier! Presumably we'd only get taxed on the prorated amount, so let's say 30%, that gives us around $11 million. (Disclaimer: I don't really know what I am doing, so I might be way off).
For the 15th spot on the roster without an expectation of a lot of minutes? I’d take a chance on OPJ over anyone else who’d take that deal, assuming he even would to begin with.
More likely we're not interested, I think. Though at this point in the schedule, it wouldn't cost much to add him. The only question is whether they want to leave roster spot 15 open for a late injury replacement, should one happen.
I think he's the only buyout guy they'd have a chance on, but I also kinda doubt their his first choice given their place in the standings and rotational logjam. You could argue for OPJ to take all of Saric's minutes now that Saric is exclusively a 4 but I also don't know if the Warriors want to set that precedent with how it could affect future negotiations asking guys to take paycuts to join in free agency.
Are we sure that there's that much value in that reputational hit? It's not like the Lakers were hurting for buyout guys and they certainly didn't treat them royally. Even really in demand min guys like Yuta going to PHX and then getting sent out midseason doesn't feel like it will affect PHX long term.
Eh, it's late enough in the season... Saric is struggling lately... we all hope that CP3 coming back will help him get his mojo back. But Saric is already only playing ~10mpg, so there's not much there there for OPJ. Much better to go to a Phoenix or something where he'll have a much clearer role... heck, Denver is probably the best landing spot for him. He'd immediately be their best bench big wing that can defend 4s and make 3s.
Also, I doubt OPJ is the difference between the warriors flaming out in the PS and winning a title this year. If he alone is insufficient to substantially improve their playoff ceiling, I doubt the disruption in the rotation would be worth it imo. I still want OPJ on the team, but that's because I'm sentimental
I hear you but I disagree. The Heat didn't think about their odds to win it all when they added Love and then they rose from the play-in to the Finals. Same with the Lakers and their midseason trade while deep in the standings and they got to the WCF. The Warriors already committed to trying to win this season when they didn't make any future-oriented trades at the deadline (like trading Saric himself), so give Curry and Green the best roster possible and see what happens imo.
Also the other thing about the Heat adding Love is that it looks like it gave them the inside track to sign him again in the offseason. Could be the same thing with OPJ.
FYI game thread scheduled for 3pm Pacific.
It’s 7:30 ET, so 4:30 PT.
"...calculated." ❤️
Dubs now closer to the #5 spot (3.5 games) than they are to the #11 spot (4 games).
Incredibly informative video. Sympathetic Air Dunking (SAD) is something that has been a mystery to me for decades. The insight given into this kind of esoteric technical basketball knowledge is what keeps me glued to DNHQ. Love your work EA.
Nice video.
In my humble opinion, I see no reason why they need 4 guys standing around watching JK and making it so easy for the defense to help.
They get in trouble when they stop moving.
They need to attack in transition and keep their motion going. They are deep and playing a lot of guys so they can also wear down the defense by not letting them stand around and also create better offensive rebounding possibilities by constantly moving.
They are the smallest team in the NBA and they need to be different.
I think there are some opportunities to have some weak side actions, like a hammer screen, to take advantage of the weak side defender's early rotation and focus.
If you've got JK in the post, a strong side split cut keeps 2 strong side defenders occupied, and it's the goalie and one other weak side defender guarding half the floor. Can/should easily be able to get a good shooter an open 3pt shot on the wing or even the corner.
Another option is to go for the full 5-out experience with Dray at the top of the key, Moody in the strong corner, Podz in the weak corner, and Steph on the weak wing.
The 5-out option only works in the first half when Dray is capable of making an open 3 :)
This is complete fire!
One of your best E1Ps! And it addressed a question I have been musing about lately. I could see the defenses were adapting because JK was having trouble getting those "easy" (for him) paths to the rim, but I didn't have a clear picture of why until now. Huge thanks, EA!
Excellent analysis. The defensive changes were most obvious from Charlotte (Warriors really need to hire defensive coach Steve Clifford) which really junked up the Warriors offense. We will surely see this in New York tonight. Why don't the Warriors use it against powerful drivers such as Kuzma, or even (cough) Lebron. Might keep Podz from putting his health at risk taking charges ?
GSW has indeed historically used a goalie vs LeBron, but I don't remember consistent use of a middle wall.
I think Bron would pick this level of overloaded coverage apart with his passing vision
Great E1P. The mid-range fall-away is really falling nicely for JK, and great to see how he's learning to pass when defenses are keyed on him. Still, I think he needs another counter - a sneaky scoop shot or pump fake when the open pass out isn't there.
Apparently, Wiggins is out indefinitely for personal reasons. Saddle up Moody, it's time to see if you can scale up your production with more minutes.
Its time to nut up or shut up.
So far in his career, his efficiency is always better when he gets actual minutes (see tweet). Which makes sense, despite the Warriors constantly messaging that Moody's whole thing is that they can throw him into any situation cold and he'll be ready (as if that would actually be the case for a 21 year old).
https://twitter.com/BBall_Archives/status/1762666471170154821
I'm highly suspicious of these stats because Moody would get more minutes in instances where he's playing/shooting well.
I haven't really seen that apply to Moody. There's also the info we've gotten this year where we've had reports multiple times where Kerr will tell a player they're not going to play in a game. I think Kerr knows ahead of time if Moody will play a decent chunk of minutes or not.
He always does.
Moses 54 point MSG coming out party incoming…
Loved this E1P, best of the year so far! Really great to see that even though Kuminga has made the scouting report it hasn't slowed him down too much, that shows a lot of growth!
Really great job, EA! Are these solutions similar to how Milwaukee responded to the Giannis wall?
I have an idea for what I think would be a great (and timely) video: Can Moses fill Wiggs’ shoes? It would interesting to compare their strengths/weaknesses and see MM in the Wiggins role in offensive sets.
Moses can easily fill Wiggins "pre-not-sucking" minutes. He's going to be a discount version of "actually good" Wiggins minutes. But I think this is his natural fit and it's going to give him an opportunity to do what Kuminga did last year when Wiggins was out for an extended period. (If he is; I'm still holding out hope this won't be a long-term thing like last year, because ugh).
So you think Moody can replace 21-22 Wiggs, who was the 2nd best player on a championship team?
I’m skeptical.
That's a great breakdown. My view in past couple of years is that Warriors could take better advantage of Kuminga's ability to score, but I never claimed he was Charles Barkley as a passer out of the post. When he makes the right read at right pace it looks great, but it's definitely a work in progress. The mad-dash downcourt can yield dramatic benefits but is also risky. Going one on three and missing with no offensive rebound available is an all or nothing proposition. To be used with care.
Didn’t really want to mention it prior bc I’ve seen no further evidence to support but since it’s come up… I’m assuming the Reddit person heard it from one of the Locked On Warrior podcasters who swears it to be true. (Was stated a few weeks ago.)
This is a great video. Definitely explains why his points are down. He's averaging 3.8 assists the past 10 games (career 1.6) and 4.5 the last 6 games. So he's adjusting and still being productive.
Honestly, I'm kind of excited for the change, for a couple of reasons:
1. His passing is getting better, and more importantly, he's starting to recognize when passing is a better option.
2. He isn't pouting or hanging his head *at all*, despite the fact it's much harder for him to score in the halfcourt now.
He's staying engaged, and his energy level is very high. Bodes well for him continuing to grow into a team game, rather than a primarily one-on-one game.
He's also handling centers on switches better to my eye...
> Otto Porter Jr. is likely to agree on a buyout with the Jazz before the March 1 deadline.
> Porter has been away from Utah evaluating all his potential options, per @Tjonesonthenba (https://theathletic.com/5291197/2024/02/21/otto-porter-jr-jazz-future/).
> Multiple title-contending teams are expected to pursue Porter Jr.
https://twitter.com/esidery/status/1763197559865057526
I like OPJ, but I'm skeptical about bringing back a player who has only played a total of 23 games in the past 1.5 seasons.
Perfectly fair, but considering we have a free roster spot it seems like a low risk high reward situation.
Ironic that you would call it a "free" roster spot; I don't know the details off-hand, but we're looking at a 5-6x multiplier. At $6.3 million, that's a big multiplier! Presumably we'd only get taxed on the prorated amount, so let's say 30%, that gives us around $11 million. (Disclaimer: I don't really know what I am doing, so I might be way off).
Free as in we don't have any other player occupying the spot. Obviously, if we fill in the spot its going to cost some salary.
If he gets bought out, I believe we would only pay the prorated vet min. But of course that's taxed too.
For the 15th spot on the roster without an expectation of a lot of minutes? I’d take a chance on OPJ over anyone else who’d take that deal, assuming he even would to begin with.
As much as I have fond memories of OPJ, look at his game log for the year and tell me why we'd want him: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/porteot01/gamelog/2024?
In the 15 games he did play:
G 15 MPG 11.6 FG 0.9 FGA 2.2 FG% 0.424 3P 0.5 3PA 1.5 3P% 0.348 FT 0.2 FTA 0.2 FT% 1.000 ORB 0.4 DRB 1.5 TRB 1.9 AST 0.5 STL 0.3 BLK 0.3
Pass.
Given the history, if we’re not his first choice I’d be surprised and a little hurt if we’re not his first choice.
We would have been his first choice if we looked like and had a record of a championship contending team. Most likely he goes somewhere else.
Are we sure we want him though? Another wing means more minutes crunch.
Feels like Saric minutes are where he’d be relevant or not.
More likely we're not interested, I think. Though at this point in the schedule, it wouldn't cost much to add him. The only question is whether they want to leave roster spot 15 open for a late injury replacement, should one happen.
I think he's the only buyout guy they'd have a chance on, but I also kinda doubt their his first choice given their place in the standings and rotational logjam. You could argue for OPJ to take all of Saric's minutes now that Saric is exclusively a 4 but I also don't know if the Warriors want to set that precedent with how it could affect future negotiations asking guys to take paycuts to join in free agency.
Are we sure that there's that much value in that reputational hit? It's not like the Lakers were hurting for buyout guys and they certainly didn't treat them royally. Even really in demand min guys like Yuta going to PHX and then getting sent out midseason doesn't feel like it will affect PHX long term.
Have no idea tbh. Personally, if OPJ wanted to come to the Warriors I'd bite the bullet and do it.
Eh, it's late enough in the season... Saric is struggling lately... we all hope that CP3 coming back will help him get his mojo back. But Saric is already only playing ~10mpg, so there's not much there there for OPJ. Much better to go to a Phoenix or something where he'll have a much clearer role... heck, Denver is probably the best landing spot for him. He'd immediately be their best bench big wing that can defend 4s and make 3s.
I could see OPJ cutting into more than just the Saric minutes given that he'd be the only non-Draymond 4 on the team who could both rebound and shoot.
Also, I doubt OPJ is the difference between the warriors flaming out in the PS and winning a title this year. If he alone is insufficient to substantially improve their playoff ceiling, I doubt the disruption in the rotation would be worth it imo. I still want OPJ on the team, but that's because I'm sentimental
I hear you but I disagree. The Heat didn't think about their odds to win it all when they added Love and then they rose from the play-in to the Finals. Same with the Lakers and their midseason trade while deep in the standings and they got to the WCF. The Warriors already committed to trying to win this season when they didn't make any future-oriented trades at the deadline (like trading Saric himself), so give Curry and Green the best roster possible and see what happens imo.
Also the other thing about the Heat adding Love is that it looks like it gave them the inside track to sign him again in the offseason. Could be the same thing with OPJ.
I'm still mad the Warriors didn't push super hard for Love last year (and this offseason). He's like exactly the type of bench big man they need.
It seems like he already had his sights set on Miami. No other team was ever really in the race