Trade or no trade, Warriors gotta get serious and make Looney their starting center imo. They spent half a season playing a clearly worse TJD over him, they are running a starting lineup with Curry and Hield which is begging for Looney's elite screen setting skills, just make the obvious move for starters please.
Not to mention, favor Anderson as the backup center imo, they can keep giving Post some looks in the right matchups but we don't need to see pity minutes for TJD.
I think this is much more matchup-dependent than you're making it sound. TJD is most certainly not "clearly worse." He can roll fast and score, he can block shots, let's not let one good Looney game distract us from the fact that Loon has had trouble with those things.
I also think Post is an interesting option. He sucked last night, but the night before was tremendous. Kerr shouldn't be thinking "Do I want red sauce or cheese or dough when I make this pizza?"
TJD is averaging 1.4 blocks per 36, Looney is averaging 1.0 blocks per 36, when you add in steals Looney is averaging more per 36. Of course with Looney you also get excellent positional defense and improved switchability. Things that probably matter more but don't pop as much as blocked shots, like how some guys get called good defenders because of their 1 on 1 defense even though most of defense happens outside of that.
> let's not let one good Looney game
It's been over half a season of TJD at center, let's not let some theoretical attributes override what we've actually seen.
Loon’s also an elite screener and passer, with a consistently Iguodala-like ast/tov ratio (5.2 ast to 1.7 tov per 100 possessions this season, which is par for the course for him). And: he’s literally the best rebounder in the NBA on a per minute basis.
TJD is well behind on him on all those counts AND defense (as you note) so I’ll co-sign “clearly worse” or at least “clearly not as awesome.”
Yeah, I really like TJD a lot but think the most logical depth chart is Looney, then a combination of Post and TJD based on matchups. This team really hurts when it's missing Looney.
Right, the above positive things about Looney are true, but we have become accustomed to accepting a center who can't run in transition, can't create for himself, can't dribble drive in under five minutes. TJD can do those things. Looney can't hit a three ever, Post can hit them. This seems not like Looney slander, but simple acknowledgement of reality. He has glaring deficiencies and it's because not in spite of watching him for a decade that I am well aware of them. Frankly, I don't know why this is controversial. When he and Draymond are on the floor together, that's some really challenging offensive spacing. The other centers make it a much more multi-dimensional offense.
If you look at CraftedOPM, CraftedDPM, CraftedPM, ODARKO, DDARKO, DARKO, ODRIP, DDRIP, DRIP, OLEBRON, DLEBRON, and LEBRON, Looney grades out higher across the board.
He's behind TJD only in Box Plus/Minus, but that doesn't even try to measure his effect on team success.
Post sucked last night? He didn’t look like he was causing the team to shoot like hot garbage in the 1st. Nor was it his doing that Looney turned in an all-time effort.
I guess I could go back and watch again, but I remember the defense basically being Post playing drop coverage and recovering hard to Hartenstein to avoid the easy dunk. SGA made 5-6 midrange shots. Seems like other people were sucking too, or else SGA had it rolling(he did).
Well, if Oost hadn't sucked as much, Loon would've had less PT, so they're sort of related, but maybe that would've worked out in it's own way ...
(btw I'm a Loon guy. I don't understand how 1 bad season last year outweighs all the good he's done for the team over the years in some peoiple's minds)
I know everybody's riding high from the win, but I think the Dubs are in the same situation as last week. And that means trading for Butler isn't such a terrible idea on a couple conditions: he needs to give up on the idea of a long-term contract and it needs to not be for any picks.
If you have a motivated Butler on a 2-year deal, you get a guy that EPM still pegs as ~30th best in the league playing for his last contract. I like Andrew Wiggins, but he's just not that guy. Even in 2022, he merely was a key cog not a driving force to the title. Butler can literally win you a round. Butler is not likely to both be healthy and outperform Steph in a playoff series, but he's a high enough variance player that he could. He also tends to show out when he wants something, and trying to play well enough to get a max? Well, that's a lot of motivation for half a year (but more likely 1.5 years).
And more importantly, Butler's deal ends one year sooner than Wiggins. If the Warriors continue status quo, Steph/Wiggins/Dray make up 70-75% of the cap the next 3 years. That's just not that much flexibility to chase a FA (probably nobody worth it, but being basically the only team able to sign a Hartenstein level player is huge), sign Kuminga (terrible idea IMO, but YMMV), or swing a blockbuster (salary flexibility can mean you're the only possible destination).
But it all comes down to this: behind the scenes, would Butler play ball or sulk? If he believes he should get a 3-year extension and will sit out until he gets it, the deal is dead. If he's willing to use 1.5 years to show he's still Jimmy Buckets, well sign me up for Wiggins+ for Butler. And I know I'm the minority.
He's probably insisting on an extension as a part of the trade (that's why he's behaving the way he is).
Once he signs that extension, the team has very little leverage. If he gives even perfunctory effort, he gets paid. It's his last big contract and he knows it. He may or may not decide to play out the string when he's 38, but I wouldn't be betting the farm on him doing much other than cashing paychecks.
Also, minor point: he can't sign a 3 year deal. He's limited to 2 years because of the over-38 clause, or such is my understanding.
> trying to play well enough to get a max? Well, that's a lot of motivation for half a year
He could've just done that this season with the Heat, no? Heat are doing better than the Dubs, especially since they're in the East so it's not about winning. He's just disgruntled for who knows what reason...
He definitely burned his bridges nice and good over the last year plus in Miami. But after doing this, he might have seen the market for his services isn't as ample as he hoped and have to face reality. But yeah, the behind-the-scenes is hard to gauge for us in the public.
Trading for Butler is an atrocious idea. He's a prima donna, he'd be too expensive to acquire because of salary matching, he's on a huge salary and wants a big extension that could hamstring the Dubs' ability to fill out the roster, if he doesn't get the extension he's a 1.5-year rental, and he's old and increasingly injury-prone, although not washed. I'd way rather have Wiggins, any day and every day.
Prima donna Butler is a hard sell. Being intentionally late to miss a team flight and walking out of a practice are pretty hard to ignore. Plus he's on the expensive and old age side with a lot of mileage that would be prone to injuries.
He would have to have buy-in for those 1.5 years for sure because without it, he's a non-starter. Thankfully, I would expect Steph and Dray to have a better understanding of whether he would continue to play these shenanigans before any trade.
Butler isn't happening if Curry doesn't want him tbh:
> "My league sources say Stephen Curry specifically has concerns about Jimmy Butler's fit in the Warriors' locker room, and Steve Kerr shares those feelings." —
He's shown he has a honeymoon period with a new team before it all going bad. He immediately took MIN to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. PHI almost went to the ECF. MIA made the Finals twice and missed by an open three once. Our window is the next couple years. I can live with a honeymoon and a divorce.
Kevin O’Connor: ”My league sources say Stephen Curry specifically has concerns about Jimmy Butler’s fit in the Warrior’s locker room and Steve Kerr shares those feelings.”
Well, I'm gonna walk this out of the corn field, so hope you have some salt and butter.
What do the Dubs need more than anything? I would say it is a back court running mate for Steph to finish out his career with. Every game, Steve Kerr does his best imitation of McGyver and has to stitch up a back court partner out of duct tape and bubble gum. Melton, Schroder, Moody, Waters, GP2, Wiggs, Podz, Spenser ... am I missing anyone? Oh, shit, Hield!
A lot of the time, it takes 2 of these players at the same time to accomplish the task of providing both defensive cover for Curry as well as adding at least one other useful NBA skill to the back court, thus the multitude of 3-guard lineups and downstream effects that impact other positions. I can assure you, every lineup that Steve Kerr makes starts with this question: "Who's next to Steph?" And because we don't have the right player with the right skill set on the team (although Melton may have come very close), we get 28 different starting lineups and that's not getting the team anywhere.
So, I think all the trade talk is hogwash, because if it doesn't address our central problem, knowing exactly who is starting next to Steph every night AND feeling good about it, then it's not going to accomplish a thing. The hole next to Steph is just too big.
What does Steph need? He needs a ++poa defender, someone who is not undersized, high IQ (natural guard instincts), a good passer, and someone who, offensively, can at least keep a defense honest.
Forget Butler, LaVine, Vuc, Fox, BI, Zion. I'm going black-ops, under the radar, buying low, out of the corn field. Lonzo Ball. I understand the injuries, but he's only 27. And just forget about the rest of the team and think of the pair, Steph and Lonzo, together. Think of them for the next 3 years as we get Lonzo on a decent contract. No more turnstile of players next to Steph. He the defender we need. He is the high IQ passer. He's not undersized. And he can score enough. He has a +6.5 ON per 100 and a +13 On/Off for a crappy team.
If we are still building around Steph, he needs a running mate first. The rest of the team doesn't matter because as long as we have the "Help Wanted" sign hanging for Steph's back court partner, we're not going anywhere.
If not Lonzo, I am open to suggestions, but it has to be someone get-able. But I think Lonzo is the prototype and I would love to see him next to Steph. THEN we can all worry about the rest of the roster.
Lonzo is in theory a perfect backcourt complement to Curry but his lack of 2 point shots this season coming back from injury is a huge red flag, it'd be a big gamble.
Right. All he is doing is spotting up from three. He's averaging just 1 two point field goal attempt and 0.6 free throw attempts per game played so far this season. What is up with this?
Deals can always get done if both parties are interested. Lonzo was just a suggestion to address the biggest issue on the roster, which in my mind, is going to sleep at night knowing who is starting with Curry.
They'd have to buy out his option year to cut him. We're talking $52.4M. Ouch!!! He surely would not give them a friendly buyout price.
If he won't agree to a significant discount on the buy-out, they might be wiser to let him opt in, and if he refuses to play, apply to the league to void his deal. If he plays and half-asses it, suspend him, but the Players Association might have something to say about that. Tough situation.
It seems more likely that they will find a taker but it will cost them picks, and they'll take back filler and expiring deals.
I think they are hot for Coby, who isn't. That hair!
Tx, Run. I'm just seeing Curry night in and night out going to the bar without a wing man. And I do think Lonzo and Curry would be really fun ... and good.
If your argument is that Brandin seems to be serving the role that Lonzo would, then you are carrying my water in this argument. I believe that Brandin should be starting with Curry.
One player in house, under contract and has room to grow. The other is making 7 times as much, would require giving up assets to acquire and might be damaged goods.
I liked Lonzo but I'm not convinced he's the same player post-injury. Podz is five years younger, has not had a major injury, and has room to grow. And he's already here on a cheaper deal.
Mostly I've just never liked him lol. My judgment is admittedly way clouded. Pertains to Lamelo too, but at least with him I can kind of see a decent player.
Always a 30+ prior to injuries. Bulls added Giddy and they want to tank. Having Ball on the floor with his positive On/Off numbers ain't helping. I think he'll be a 30+ min guy again next season.
With the obvious caveat that both the competition and the other players who share the court with you are not adjusted for (so these are by no means apple to apple comparisons), here are the Warriors' current on-court minus off-court net ratings for this season to date:
+8.4 Santos (293 minutes)
+7.8 Podz (822 minutes)
+6.1 Green (946 minutes)
+5.8 GPII (492 minutes)
+5.2 Curry (1206 minutes)
+3.1 Looney (665 minutes)
+1.4 Moody (717 minutes)
+0.8 Kuminga (833 minutes)
-2.8 Waters (650 minutes)
-3.2 Post (108 minutes)
-4.8 Wiggins (1230 minutes)
-5.5 Hield (1092 minutes)
-6.3 TJD (890 minutes)
-7.0 Slomo (530 minutes)
-11.2 Schröder (589 minutes)
Note that the team's improvement with Santos on the floor is due to improved offensive efficiency and rebounding with Santos on the court, not better defense. Draymond's +6.1 and Curry's +5.2 are also exclusively due to better team offensive efficiency, while Podz's +7.8 and Looney's +3.1 are exclusively due to better team defensive efficiency with them on the court. For Payton, it is about 50/50 offensive/defensive improvement.
Having seen EPM numbers recently, aren't those way more useful than these raw +/- numbers that short-change players like Wiggins, who play with bad lineups an inordinate amount of time?
>>>Hopefully you recall our Jan. 22 report about Johnson and Sacramento and how the Kings — after weeks without active discussions with the Nets on the in-demand sharpshooter — had moved on to the pursuit of new trade targets. One of those targets, league sources say now, was Utah’s John Collins … but it is unclear how far the teams actually got in those talks before news of the Kings’ willingness to field offers for De’Aaron Fox inevitably became the most pressing trade matter in Sacramento.
The Kings have been actively exploring ways to improve their roster, shifting their focus to new trade targets after initial interest in Cam Johnson faded. John Collins emerged as one potential option, though the extent of those discussions remains uncertain. However, any potential moves took a backseat once reports surfaced about Sacramento’s openness to listening to offers for De’Aaron Fox. With the trade deadline approaching, it will be interesting to see how the Kings navigate their options and whether any significant deals materialize.<<<
>>>The Pacers’ phones are undeniably ringing with interest in Myles Turner. That was inevitable with Turner just months away from unrestricted free agency now. Yet the prevailing leaguewide sense, one week out from the trade buzzer, is that the Pacers do not want to trade Turner.
Turner has been a key part of Indiana’s success, providing elite rim protection and floor spacing. With free agency approaching, teams are naturally exploring the possibility of acquiring him, but the Pacers seem intent on keeping him for their playoff push. His importance to the team’s system makes him a tough player to move, especially without a clear replacement. Unless something changes, Indiana appears committed to holding onto Turner for the rest of the season.<<<
Will be interesting, but it sounds like the messaging has shifted. The last few weeks, it seems like it's been coming from teams/agents that are pushing for moves, but the messaging now seems to be coming from the other side of the negotiating table.
I'm intrigued to learn how much the absorption of the new CBA will impact the trade deadline, as it has CERTAINLY impacted how teams view these bigger contracts. There seems to have been a higher value placed on draft picks, a most discerning approach to deciding whether somebody gets a max contract... which says: Teams are being much more careful about where they spend their money. I think there will be fewer trades, especially at the deadline.
Kevin O’Connor: ”My league sources say Stephen Curry specifically has concerns about Jimmy Butler’s fit in the Warrior’s locker room and Steve Kerr shares those feelings.”
As measured by Box Plus/Minus, the last 10 games have marked the best 10 game stretch of Podz's short NBA career: https://stathead.com/tiny/KHOgd
Over that stretch, he has hit 65% of two point field goals, 46% of his three point attempts, and 92% of his free throws. And he has 42 rebounds, 31 assists, and 14 steals against just 5 turnovers and 9 fouls!
Note that his average Box Plus/Minus of +7.1 over his last 10 games is the highest for any 10 game stretch of any Warrior not named Curry over the Warriors' last two and half seasons: https://stathead.com/tiny/e8aqT
LFG! This is the guy our FO held out of trades, and talked up as a potential future all star. Not that dizzy bum chaotically running around for the first month of the season.
Tweet reads: "At least I was in on it today. Got lucky that I was fed some inside info that Rozier was leaving in the 1st or 2nd quarter (depending on game flow and live lines) so that his under would hit".
This has to be fake.
taking notes on a criminal f****** conspiracy? #StringerBell
But clearly everyone but Looney was expecting to run something different.
There seems to be a bunch of variations to Scissors (eg. sometimes the player throwing the entry pass will set an immediate ball screen, sometimes they'll flare out) but I can't tell why/when they run the variations.
Good idea, maybe Loon thought he was screening on the other elbow.
There must be some extra signal they have to distinguish between the HORNS plays. They use “scissors” for both what I internally was calling HORNS Stagger (the main one in the OKC video) and HORNS Follow (the other variant from the other video). I haven’t looked for the playcall yet for the HORNS Flare version (which I haven’t talked about on video yet but expect to in the future) but I would personally find it weird if it was also Scissors.
Do you know how they decide on which elbow to set the initial screen? There's an example of Loon setting the screen on the right elbow with Steph receiving the ball on the right wing. But then there's another example of Loon on setting the screen on the left elbow but Steph ends up with the ball on the right wing anyway.
"[Wall Street Journal] Federal prosecutors have been investigating whether NBA player Terry Rozier manipulated his performance as part of an illegal sports betting scheme."
"[Chiang] The Heat learned about the federal investigation into Rozier on Wednesday night. The expectation is that Rozier will continue to play for the Heat during the government’s investigation."
Jan 29 vs Cavaliers: 33 mins, 22 pts, 8-13 FG
There's "contract year Wiggins", and then there's "pending federal indictment Rozier"
Edit: Apparently the investigation stemmed from some games in 2023 (with the Hornets)
Was that SGA's gameplan, or Kerr's? Kerr has a history of defending superstars like this tbh, even though Fitz was idiotically whining about Kerr not sending doubles late into the third quarter as the Warriors were miraculously tied with the vastly superior Thunder lol.
from the article: "For the second time in seven days, OKC Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was found dropping 50+ points Wednesday night against the Golden State Warriors, ..."
Which is weird weird because I know it's been a tough season but I really don't remember Shai dropping 50+ against us last Wednesday ...
Eh, that's sports-speak for "We lost, even though I had a good game"... The Warriors defended how they defended, he took the opportunities he was presented, and the shots fell or didn't. SGA did generate open looks for his teammates, the shots just didn't fall. They unexpectedly won the rebounding battle, and got up way more shot attempts, but the shots just didn't fall. Calling this "scathing" or "clashing" is just hyperbole, imo
I agree that "scathing" is hyperbole but this was the point:
> "It sucks. Me personally, I play to win. Winning comes first and foremost. If I don't win, I'm not satisfied. So maybe my 52 points tonight wasn't in the best interest of the team," Gilgeous-Alexander said.
...
> Gilgeous-Alexander stressed during his presser that, considering the way Wednesday's game played out, his scoring accomplishment means very little to him. Instead, in response to the loss, he plans to "watch the game over" to see if he can pinpoint areas of his play that could have been better and, in turn, may have helped lead Oklahoma City to a win.
Yeah, that’s the sports-speak, haha… he’s a fine player, very talented. Especially talented at understanding how much he can get away with in terms of pushing off and jumping into people. JK can learn a lot…
Yes, but I kinda hope he doesn't. Part of what makes me love so many current and former Warriors is that they didn't rely a whole lot on this less-than-savory (to me anyway) part of the game.
Yeah, I seem to recall you and I having this discussion before. I suppose it would help the Dubs to have someone who can play this way, and Kuminga is a really good candidate. Still, it just takes away from the beauty of the game. I watch first to be entertained. Winning is secondary in the sense that yes, I will always celebrate a hard-earned win, but ultimately I want to feel the tension and the drive of it all. I guess I'm just an old-fashioned "play the game the right way" kind of fan.
https://dubnationhq.com/p/warriors-stun-the-1-seeded-thunder new joy being weaponized for those interested
Steph Curry & Warriors STUN Thunder, SGA drops 52, OKC's biggest WEAKNESS costs them | Hoops Tonight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AegApU5_vgI
Interesting segment at 11:20, Timpf talks about the Warrior's elite record against elite opponents and what it means.
Thanks.
That had more meat to it than I'm used to from Timpf (not saying he's bad).
Trade or no trade, Warriors gotta get serious and make Looney their starting center imo. They spent half a season playing a clearly worse TJD over him, they are running a starting lineup with Curry and Hield which is begging for Looney's elite screen setting skills, just make the obvious move for starters please.
Not to mention, favor Anderson as the backup center imo, they can keep giving Post some looks in the right matchups but we don't need to see pity minutes for TJD.
I think this is much more matchup-dependent than you're making it sound. TJD is most certainly not "clearly worse." He can roll fast and score, he can block shots, let's not let one good Looney game distract us from the fact that Loon has had trouble with those things.
I also think Post is an interesting option. He sucked last night, but the night before was tremendous. Kerr shouldn't be thinking "Do I want red sauce or cheese or dough when I make this pizza?"
> He can roll fast and score
TJD's finishing has been ass this season
> he can block shots
TJD is averaging 1.4 blocks per 36, Looney is averaging 1.0 blocks per 36, when you add in steals Looney is averaging more per 36. Of course with Looney you also get excellent positional defense and improved switchability. Things that probably matter more but don't pop as much as blocked shots, like how some guys get called good defenders because of their 1 on 1 defense even though most of defense happens outside of that.
> let's not let one good Looney game
It's been over half a season of TJD at center, let's not let some theoretical attributes override what we've actually seen.
Loon’s also an elite screener and passer, with a consistently Iguodala-like ast/tov ratio (5.2 ast to 1.7 tov per 100 possessions this season, which is par for the course for him). And: he’s literally the best rebounder in the NBA on a per minute basis.
TJD is well behind on him on all those counts AND defense (as you note) so I’ll co-sign “clearly worse” or at least “clearly not as awesome.”
Yeah, I really like TJD a lot but think the most logical depth chart is Looney, then a combination of Post and TJD based on matchups. This team really hurts when it's missing Looney.
Last night, I thought that Looney's defense made all the difference.
Right, the above positive things about Looney are true, but we have become accustomed to accepting a center who can't run in transition, can't create for himself, can't dribble drive in under five minutes. TJD can do those things. Looney can't hit a three ever, Post can hit them. This seems not like Looney slander, but simple acknowledgement of reality. He has glaring deficiencies and it's because not in spite of watching him for a decade that I am well aware of them. Frankly, I don't know why this is controversial. When he and Draymond are on the floor together, that's some really challenging offensive spacing. The other centers make it a much more multi-dimensional offense.
Yes, but by every advanced measurement that tries to measure a player's offensive and defensive impact on the Warriors' team play, Looney grades out higher than TJD so far this season: https://craftednba.com/players/comparison?player1=kevon-looney&player2=trayce-jackson-davis
Click on PLUS MINUS
If you look at CraftedOPM, CraftedDPM, CraftedPM, ODARKO, DDARKO, DARKO, ODRIP, DDRIP, DRIP, OLEBRON, DLEBRON, and LEBRON, Looney grades out higher across the board.
He's behind TJD only in Box Plus/Minus, but that doesn't even try to measure his effect on team success.
Post sucked last night? He didn’t look like he was causing the team to shoot like hot garbage in the 1st. Nor was it his doing that Looney turned in an all-time effort.
One thing isn't correlated to the other. All three things are true at the same time.
1. Post sucked, and
2. The team shot like hot garbage, and
3. Looney turned in an all-time effort.
Post didn't cause the other two things to happen, but he did suck.
I guess I could go back and watch again, but I remember the defense basically being Post playing drop coverage and recovering hard to Hartenstein to avoid the easy dunk. SGA made 5-6 midrange shots. Seems like other people were sucking too, or else SGA had it rolling(he did).
Well, if Oost hadn't sucked as much, Loon would've had less PT, so they're sort of related, but maybe that would've worked out in it's own way ...
(btw I'm a Loon guy. I don't understand how 1 bad season last year outweighs all the good he's done for the team over the years in some peoiple's minds)
I know everybody's riding high from the win, but I think the Dubs are in the same situation as last week. And that means trading for Butler isn't such a terrible idea on a couple conditions: he needs to give up on the idea of a long-term contract and it needs to not be for any picks.
If you have a motivated Butler on a 2-year deal, you get a guy that EPM still pegs as ~30th best in the league playing for his last contract. I like Andrew Wiggins, but he's just not that guy. Even in 2022, he merely was a key cog not a driving force to the title. Butler can literally win you a round. Butler is not likely to both be healthy and outperform Steph in a playoff series, but he's a high enough variance player that he could. He also tends to show out when he wants something, and trying to play well enough to get a max? Well, that's a lot of motivation for half a year (but more likely 1.5 years).
And more importantly, Butler's deal ends one year sooner than Wiggins. If the Warriors continue status quo, Steph/Wiggins/Dray make up 70-75% of the cap the next 3 years. That's just not that much flexibility to chase a FA (probably nobody worth it, but being basically the only team able to sign a Hartenstein level player is huge), sign Kuminga (terrible idea IMO, but YMMV), or swing a blockbuster (salary flexibility can mean you're the only possible destination).
But it all comes down to this: behind the scenes, would Butler play ball or sulk? If he believes he should get a 3-year extension and will sit out until he gets it, the deal is dead. If he's willing to use 1.5 years to show he's still Jimmy Buckets, well sign me up for Wiggins+ for Butler. And I know I'm the minority.
Why on earth would you get a motivated Butler?
He's probably insisting on an extension as a part of the trade (that's why he's behaving the way he is).
Once he signs that extension, the team has very little leverage. If he gives even perfunctory effort, he gets paid. It's his last big contract and he knows it. He may or may not decide to play out the string when he's 38, but I wouldn't be betting the farm on him doing much other than cashing paychecks.
Also, minor point: he can't sign a 3 year deal. He's limited to 2 years because of the over-38 clause, or such is my understanding.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/43277039/jimmy-butler-miami-heat-suspension-possible-trade
Wiggs is probably within 10% as good as Butler right now, with far fewer headaches, and very good effort.
> trying to play well enough to get a max? Well, that's a lot of motivation for half a year
He could've just done that this season with the Heat, no? Heat are doing better than the Dubs, especially since they're in the East so it's not about winning. He's just disgruntled for who knows what reason...
He definitely burned his bridges nice and good over the last year plus in Miami. But after doing this, he might have seen the market for his services isn't as ample as he hoped and have to face reality. But yeah, the behind-the-scenes is hard to gauge for us in the public.
If it were just Miami, we could be more optimistic about his attitude. But he has a pattern of burning bridges.
Trading for Butler is an atrocious idea. He's a prima donna, he'd be too expensive to acquire because of salary matching, he's on a huge salary and wants a big extension that could hamstring the Dubs' ability to fill out the roster, if he doesn't get the extension he's a 1.5-year rental, and he's old and increasingly injury-prone, although not washed. I'd way rather have Wiggins, any day and every day.
> trading for Butler isn't such a terrible idea
Yeah, just can't get on this train.
Prima donna Butler is a hard sell. Being intentionally late to miss a team flight and walking out of a practice are pretty hard to ignore. Plus he's on the expensive and old age side with a lot of mileage that would be prone to injuries.
He would have to have buy-in for those 1.5 years for sure because without it, he's a non-starter. Thankfully, I would expect Steph and Dray to have a better understanding of whether he would continue to play these shenanigans before any trade.
Butler isn't happening if Curry doesn't want him tbh:
> "My league sources say Stephen Curry specifically has concerns about Jimmy Butler's fit in the Warriors' locker room, and Steve Kerr shares those feelings." —
@KevinOConnorNBA
https://x.com/YahooSports/status/1885080535573070280
EDIT: I agree with you though that Butler is really good, I think some of the downplaying of him as a player is pretty silly.
EDIT2: My bad this was the first comment I saw, hadn't scrolled down to see it posted yet.
When someone shows you who they are, believe them
He's shown he has a honeymoon period with a new team before it all going bad. He immediately took MIN to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. PHI almost went to the ECF. MIA made the Finals twice and missed by an open three once. Our window is the next couple years. I can live with a honeymoon and a divorce.
Hallelujah. Disaster averted.
r/nba
35 min. ago
lopea182
Kevin O’Connor: ”My league sources say Stephen Curry specifically has concerns about Jimmy Butler’s fit in the Warrior’s locker room and Steve Kerr shares those feelings.”
Edited to add source: https://sports.yahoo.com/stephen-curry-steve-kerr-have-concerns-about-jimmy-butler-joining-the-warriors-sources-201709782.html
That sounds good and all, but I'm not sure if Kevin O'Connor is a legit source.
KoC has a lot of contacts and is legit as anyone else.
Front page of Yahoo news for what that's worth.
Also, I'm seeing O'Connor's name popping up a lot as "a source".
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Yes, thank you Steph and Coach Kerr!
BTW. If Fox gets traded, Schroder moving over to Sac would be a no-brainer, just in case FO wants to move him.
Just as he's starting to settle in?!?! But what are the Kings sending back that's worthwhile?
That's up to them. Just saying Sac has the need.
Well, I'm gonna walk this out of the corn field, so hope you have some salt and butter.
What do the Dubs need more than anything? I would say it is a back court running mate for Steph to finish out his career with. Every game, Steve Kerr does his best imitation of McGyver and has to stitch up a back court partner out of duct tape and bubble gum. Melton, Schroder, Moody, Waters, GP2, Wiggs, Podz, Spenser ... am I missing anyone? Oh, shit, Hield!
A lot of the time, it takes 2 of these players at the same time to accomplish the task of providing both defensive cover for Curry as well as adding at least one other useful NBA skill to the back court, thus the multitude of 3-guard lineups and downstream effects that impact other positions. I can assure you, every lineup that Steve Kerr makes starts with this question: "Who's next to Steph?" And because we don't have the right player with the right skill set on the team (although Melton may have come very close), we get 28 different starting lineups and that's not getting the team anywhere.
So, I think all the trade talk is hogwash, because if it doesn't address our central problem, knowing exactly who is starting next to Steph every night AND feeling good about it, then it's not going to accomplish a thing. The hole next to Steph is just too big.
What does Steph need? He needs a ++poa defender, someone who is not undersized, high IQ (natural guard instincts), a good passer, and someone who, offensively, can at least keep a defense honest.
Forget Butler, LaVine, Vuc, Fox, BI, Zion. I'm going black-ops, under the radar, buying low, out of the corn field. Lonzo Ball. I understand the injuries, but he's only 27. And just forget about the rest of the team and think of the pair, Steph and Lonzo, together. Think of them for the next 3 years as we get Lonzo on a decent contract. No more turnstile of players next to Steph. He the defender we need. He is the high IQ passer. He's not undersized. And he can score enough. He has a +6.5 ON per 100 and a +13 On/Off for a crappy team.
If we are still building around Steph, he needs a running mate first. The rest of the team doesn't matter because as long as we have the "Help Wanted" sign hanging for Steph's back court partner, we're not going anywhere.
If not Lonzo, I am open to suggestions, but it has to be someone get-able. But I think Lonzo is the prototype and I would love to see him next to Steph. THEN we can all worry about the rest of the roster.
Why not Fox? He fills all your requirements, including the critical one of “keeping the D honest,” which Lonzo doesn’t do at all.
Lonzo is in theory a perfect backcourt complement to Curry but his lack of 2 point shots this season coming back from injury is a huge red flag, it'd be a big gamble.
Right. All he is doing is spotting up from three. He's averaging just 1 two point field goal attempt and 0.6 free throw attempts per game played so far this season. What is up with this?
Lonzo is makign 21.4M this season so who are we trading?
Draymond is probably the only 1:1 trade we can do. Schroder + GP2 might (?) give us enough room under the hard cap to sign a minimum.
Or I guess you meant sign him in the off-season on a cheap deal?
Deals can always get done if both parties are interested. Lonzo was just a suggestion to address the biggest issue on the roster, which in my mind, is going to sleep at night knowing who is starting with Curry.
>>> Deals can always get done if both parties are interested.
I might have agreed previously, but I think the new CBA and so many teams in cap-related handcuffs, is shutting down countless deals.
I won’t be surprised if The Heat can’t move Jimmy and wonder if they end up having to cut him.
They'd have to buy out his option year to cut him. We're talking $52.4M. Ouch!!! He surely would not give them a friendly buyout price.
If he won't agree to a significant discount on the buy-out, they might be wiser to let him opt in, and if he refuses to play, apply to the league to void his deal. If he plays and half-asses it, suspend him, but the Players Association might have something to say about that. Tough situation.
It seems more likely that they will find a taker but it will cost them picks, and they'll take back filler and expiring deals.
I can't believe I'm about to type this, but I think I agree.
(Edit: although actually I want Coby White)
I think they are hot for Coby, who isn't. That hair!
Tx, Run. I'm just seeing Curry night in and night out going to the bar without a wing man. And I do think Lonzo and Curry would be really fun ... and good.
12 pts/36. Lame haircut. Annoying dad. Bleh.
To be fair, many Warrior fans seem to be advocating for 13 pts/36 Brandin Podziemski to be the starting SG
If your argument is that Brandin seems to be serving the role that Lonzo would, then you are carrying my water in this argument. I believe that Brandin should be starting with Curry.
More that if it's a knock against trading for Lonzo, it's a knock against Podziemski starting as well
False equivalency.
One player in house, under contract and has room to grow. The other is making 7 times as much, would require giving up assets to acquire and might be damaged goods.
I liked Lonzo but I'm not convinced he's the same player post-injury. Podz is five years younger, has not had a major injury, and has room to grow. And he's already here on a cheaper deal.
I guess I would counter that the things people like about Lonzo, I like about Brandin as well, and he is much cheaper.
12/36: I'm assuming he will get better as gets further form his injury. He used to be pretty good.
Annoying dad: yes, but he's pretty much vanished form relevance, no?
Lame haircut: oh, good point! never mind, then.
Now that I take that into consideration ...
Mostly I've just never liked him lol. My judgment is admittedly way clouded. Pertains to Lamelo too, but at least with him I can kind of see a decent player.
p.s. - you want a Bulls benchwarmer to be the running mate for Steph?!
Always a 30+ prior to injuries. Bulls added Giddy and they want to tank. Having Ball on the floor with his positive On/Off numbers ain't helping. I think he'll be a 30+ min guy again next season.
With the obvious caveat that both the competition and the other players who share the court with you are not adjusted for (so these are by no means apple to apple comparisons), here are the Warriors' current on-court minus off-court net ratings for this season to date:
+8.4 Santos (293 minutes)
+7.8 Podz (822 minutes)
+6.1 Green (946 minutes)
+5.8 GPII (492 minutes)
+5.2 Curry (1206 minutes)
+3.1 Looney (665 minutes)
+1.4 Moody (717 minutes)
+0.8 Kuminga (833 minutes)
-2.8 Waters (650 minutes)
-3.2 Post (108 minutes)
-4.8 Wiggins (1230 minutes)
-5.5 Hield (1092 minutes)
-6.3 TJD (890 minutes)
-7.0 Slomo (530 minutes)
-11.2 Schröder (589 minutes)
Note that the team's improvement with Santos on the floor is due to improved offensive efficiency and rebounding with Santos on the court, not better defense. Draymond's +6.1 and Curry's +5.2 are also exclusively due to better team offensive efficiency, while Podz's +7.8 and Looney's +3.1 are exclusively due to better team defensive efficiency with them on the court. For Payton, it is about 50/50 offensive/defensive improvement.
If you want to see more: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2025/on-off/
Typo for Slomo? Or, he must be really terrible
LOL. Yes. Now fixed. -70.0 would be off the charts.
Having seen EPM numbers recently, aren't those way more useful than these raw +/- numbers that short-change players like Wiggins, who play with bad lineups an inordinate amount of time?
Sure.
But that takes a lot of work for me because I don't have a subscription to Dunks & Threes.
Since you asked: https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual
+4.2 Curry (13th in NBA)
+1.2 Looney (81st in NBA)
+1.0 Wiggins (95th in NBA)
+0.7 GPII (107th in NBA)
+0.6 Santos (118th in NBA)
+0.4 Kuminga (127th in NBA)
+0.3 Green (138th in NBA)
+0.1 Podz (146th in NBA)
-0.2 Schröder (includes his far superior Nets minutes)
-0.3 TJD (181st in NBA)
-0.4 Post (196th in NBA)
-0.7 Moody (208th in NBA)
-1.0 Slomo (230th in NBA)
-1.3 Hield (245th in NBA)
-2.6 Waters (335th in NBA)
-2.9 Spencer (354th in the NBA)
Note that all Warriors are ahead of Jonas Valančiūnas, who is ranked 357th.
The most surprising (and in some cases non-surprising to me) other players (high and low) are:
5. Sabonis +5.0
12. Franz Wagner +4.3 (one ahead of Curry)
19. Zubac + 3.6
21. Van Fleet +3.4
24. Pritchard +3.3
27. Ty Jerome +3.1
40. Embiid +2.9
41. Vučević + 2.8
45. Lively +2.7
46. Hartenstein +2.7
47. Cam Johnson +2.5
48. Ant +2.4
51. Nembhard +2.2
53. Aldama +2.2
55. LaVine +2.1
61. Chris Paul +2.0
62. Sochan +1.7
69. Markkanen +1.5
70. LeBron James +1.5
78. Fox +1.3
80. Klay +1.3 (one ahead of Looney)
82. Boucher +1.2 (one behind Looney)
84. Kennard +1.2
88. Braun +1.1
91. Trae Young +1.1
93. Banchero +1.0 (two ahead of Wiggins)
102. Edey +0.8
105. Mo Wagner +0.8
109. CJ McCollum +0.7
111. Paul George +0.7
120. John Collins +0.4
133. Jordan Poole +0.3 (five ahead of Draymond)
142. Myles Turner +0.2
145. DeRozan +0.1
173. Brandon Ingram -0.2
187. Robert Williams III -0.4
212. Tyus Jones -0.7
225. Dejounte Murray -0.9
255. Beal -1.4
264. Giddey -1.6
308. Steven Adams -2.2
423. Kuzma -3.9
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.
Vuc and Lavine are pretty high
SMH. Klay still can't crack the Top 75
By the way, Happy Loonar New Year everybody
https://marcstein.substack.com/p/lots-more-nba-trade-talk?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=392205&post_id=156104802&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=10980&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
>>>Hopefully you recall our Jan. 22 report about Johnson and Sacramento and how the Kings — after weeks without active discussions with the Nets on the in-demand sharpshooter — had moved on to the pursuit of new trade targets. One of those targets, league sources say now, was Utah’s John Collins … but it is unclear how far the teams actually got in those talks before news of the Kings’ willingness to field offers for De’Aaron Fox inevitably became the most pressing trade matter in Sacramento.
The Kings have been actively exploring ways to improve their roster, shifting their focus to new trade targets after initial interest in Cam Johnson faded. John Collins emerged as one potential option, though the extent of those discussions remains uncertain. However, any potential moves took a backseat once reports surfaced about Sacramento’s openness to listening to offers for De’Aaron Fox. With the trade deadline approaching, it will be interesting to see how the Kings navigate their options and whether any significant deals materialize.<<<
>>>The Pacers’ phones are undeniably ringing with interest in Myles Turner. That was inevitable with Turner just months away from unrestricted free agency now. Yet the prevailing leaguewide sense, one week out from the trade buzzer, is that the Pacers do not want to trade Turner.
Turner has been a key part of Indiana’s success, providing elite rim protection and floor spacing. With free agency approaching, teams are naturally exploring the possibility of acquiring him, but the Pacers seem intent on keeping him for their playoff push. His importance to the team’s system makes him a tough player to move, especially without a clear replacement. Unless something changes, Indiana appears committed to holding onto Turner for the rest of the season.<<<
I assume that Indy has Turner's Bird Rights. If so, they can offer him the best deal if they want to, correct? I would think they'd want to.
Will be interesting, but it sounds like the messaging has shifted. The last few weeks, it seems like it's been coming from teams/agents that are pushing for moves, but the messaging now seems to be coming from the other side of the negotiating table.
I'm intrigued to learn how much the absorption of the new CBA will impact the trade deadline, as it has CERTAINLY impacted how teams view these bigger contracts. There seems to have been a higher value placed on draft picks, a most discerning approach to deciding whether somebody gets a max contract... which says: Teams are being much more careful about where they spend their money. I think there will be fewer trades, especially at the deadline.
Kevin O’Connor: ”My league sources say Stephen Curry specifically has concerns about Jimmy Butler’s fit in the Warrior’s locker room and Steve Kerr shares those feelings.”
https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1idwgt2/kevin_oconnor_my_league_sources_say_stephen_curry/
(from his podcast I think)
You love to see it...
As measured by Box Plus/Minus, the last 10 games have marked the best 10 game stretch of Podz's short NBA career: https://stathead.com/tiny/KHOgd
Over that stretch, he has hit 65% of two point field goals, 46% of his three point attempts, and 92% of his free throws. And he has 42 rebounds, 31 assists, and 14 steals against just 5 turnovers and 9 fouls!
Note that his average Box Plus/Minus of +7.1 over his last 10 games is the highest for any 10 game stretch of any Warrior not named Curry over the Warriors' last two and half seasons: https://stathead.com/tiny/e8aqT
LFG! This is the guy our FO held out of trades, and talked up as a potential future all star. Not that dizzy bum chaotically running around for the first month of the season.
https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1idts7r/march_23_2023_terry_rozier_leaves_game_after_10/
Tweet reads: "At least I was in on it today. Got lucky that I was fed some inside info that Rozier was leaving in the 1st or 2nd quarter (depending on game flow and live lines) so that his under would hit".
This has to be fake.
taking notes on a criminal f****** conspiracy? #StringerBell
It's a line from The Wire, about the stupidity of a guy taking notes at a meeting of drug dealers. Crazy story, though. Hopefully false.
Sorry, that was my comment/quote, not a quote from the tweet
Aha. Sorry, went right over my head.
Looney initially seemed like he knew what they were running. He didn't look like somebody that was confused... initially, anyway.
So I rewatched the other recent Scissors video and I think Looney was thinking they would run Scissors like this... the setup is nearly identical:
https://youtu.be/8C29kFzr3Ic?t=174
But clearly everyone but Looney was expecting to run something different.
There seems to be a bunch of variations to Scissors (eg. sometimes the player throwing the entry pass will set an immediate ball screen, sometimes they'll flare out) but I can't tell why/when they run the variations.
Good idea, maybe Loon thought he was screening on the other elbow.
There must be some extra signal they have to distinguish between the HORNS plays. They use “scissors” for both what I internally was calling HORNS Stagger (the main one in the OKC video) and HORNS Follow (the other variant from the other video). I haven’t looked for the playcall yet for the HORNS Flare version (which I haven’t talked about on video yet but expect to in the future) but I would personally find it weird if it was also Scissors.
Do you know how they decide on which elbow to set the initial screen? There's an example of Loon setting the screen on the right elbow with Steph receiving the ball on the right wing. But then there's another example of Loon on setting the screen on the left elbow but Steph ends up with the ball on the right wing anyway.
"[Wall Street Journal] Federal prosecutors have been investigating whether NBA player Terry Rozier manipulated his performance as part of an illegal sports betting scheme."
"[Chiang] The Heat learned about the federal investigation into Rozier on Wednesday night. The expectation is that Rozier will continue to play for the Heat during the government’s investigation."
Jan 29 vs Cavaliers: 33 mins, 22 pts, 8-13 FG
There's "contract year Wiggins", and then there's "pending federal indictment Rozier"
Edit: Apparently the investigation stemmed from some games in 2023 (with the Hornets)
The league knew the pitfalls of introducing gambling but MONEY is the only thing that matters. This will only get worse.
If true, this is plenty bad enough, and Rozier's career is over.
"Oh when will they ever learn?" — from "Where Have All the Flowers Gone"
Gambling has always been a thing in sports but it's so pathetic to me
Not that much of a surprise given that the NBA has made a 180 degree turn with respect to gambling.
Gives a new meaning to "Scary Terry"
Only a matter of time before we see refs getting indicted again
To his credit, SGA realizes his game plan may have clashed with the best interests of the team:
https://thunderousintentions.com/okc-thunder-shai-gilgeous-alexander-drops-scathing-take-loss-warriors
Was that SGA's gameplan, or Kerr's? Kerr has a history of defending superstars like this tbh, even though Fitz was idiotically whining about Kerr not sending doubles late into the third quarter as the Warriors were miraculously tied with the vastly superior Thunder lol.
from the article: "For the second time in seven days, OKC Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was found dropping 50+ points Wednesday night against the Golden State Warriors, ..."
Which is weird weird because I know it's been a tough season but I really don't remember Shai dropping 50+ against us last Wednesday ...
I wouldn't be surprised. There's been a LOT of flashy things lately!
Eh, that's sports-speak for "We lost, even though I had a good game"... The Warriors defended how they defended, he took the opportunities he was presented, and the shots fell or didn't. SGA did generate open looks for his teammates, the shots just didn't fall. They unexpectedly won the rebounding battle, and got up way more shot attempts, but the shots just didn't fall. Calling this "scathing" or "clashing" is just hyperbole, imo
I agree that "scathing" is hyperbole but this was the point:
> "It sucks. Me personally, I play to win. Winning comes first and foremost. If I don't win, I'm not satisfied. So maybe my 52 points tonight wasn't in the best interest of the team," Gilgeous-Alexander said.
...
> Gilgeous-Alexander stressed during his presser that, considering the way Wednesday's game played out, his scoring accomplishment means very little to him. Instead, in response to the loss, he plans to "watch the game over" to see if he can pinpoint areas of his play that could have been better and, in turn, may have helped lead Oklahoma City to a win.
Yeah, that’s the sports-speak, haha… he’s a fine player, very talented. Especially talented at understanding how much he can get away with in terms of pushing off and jumping into people. JK can learn a lot…
Yes, but I kinda hope he doesn't. Part of what makes me love so many current and former Warriors is that they didn't rely a whole lot on this less-than-savory (to me anyway) part of the game.
Hate the game if you want, it wins… in the regular season, at least, lol
Yeah, I seem to recall you and I having this discussion before. I suppose it would help the Dubs to have someone who can play this way, and Kuminga is a really good candidate. Still, it just takes away from the beauty of the game. I watch first to be entertained. Winning is secondary in the sense that yes, I will always celebrate a hard-earned win, but ultimately I want to feel the tension and the drive of it all. I guess I'm just an old-fashioned "play the game the right way" kind of fan.