Nice E1P, Apricot (as usual). It is so elegant, sometimes I think you just make it up 🙂.
BTW, have you tried opening the video in Vimeo app on Android (clicking 'vimeo' logo in the video opens up the app")? App can't handle it and tells me to use the webpage. And on the webpage, ability to use Chromecast to stream it on TV is not there. Workaround is of course Chromecasting the phone screen. Any idea why I am not able to open it in app?
While we're on the topic of suggestions (and I don't even know if it's possible with Vimeo): is there a way to enable those little thumbnail previews as you hover over the playback timeline/bar that YouTube has?
New E1P music! Nice changeup, feels a lot more mellow/fun (appropriate for this point in preseason I guess).
Some of the transitions between plays are a bit rough, with the source video cutting to a different angle mid cross-fade. I'm guessing that's to make the video easier to produce but it's a bit jarring.
Love the observation about the shot-clock. That's one of the things I probably wouldn't have even noticed even watching the games closely, because to my mind anything more than about 14 seconds is all the time in the world. (Incidentally: the changes have been subtle, but I appreciate the recent NBA rule change to reset the shot clock to 14 on an offensive rebound. Props to foreign leagues for pioneering that one.)
And yeah, I wonder if it's an evolution in Kerr's own basketball philosophy, to break down some of these bigger plays into "mid-size" interchangeable parts like "split cut", "stagger screen" etc. Then you can master each individual piece in practice, and build up bigger and more complex actions just by mastering the transitions between them and improvising from there.
I remember people making comparisons between peak dynasty Warriors basketball and jazz music, and I like the analogy. You take various basic actions (licks/motifs) and combine them in a kind of free-form way, reading and reacting to the defense (or audience), and occasionally making slight changes, resulting in beautiful new creations that are made of familiar parts but add up to something more.
Thanks for the encouragement, it makes it all worthwhile!
Yes, I agree some of the transitions were clunky but I opted to just fire the video out rather than spend a lot of time smoothing it out. Trying to overcome my perfectionism to just release something interesting out for viewing
The password is in bold at the end of that article. It's the same password for all of us, and currently the same one as the last few subs-only E1P videos.
Everyone sees those sub buttons at the end of the article. As long as you can read the subscriber-only article (also bookmarked on the front page on the right=hand side column) you should be able to get the password and view the full version of the video.
"Lakers guard Talen Horton-Tucker will undergo surgery to repair torn ligaments in his right thumb, sources told ESPN on Monday. [...] It is the second significant injury to hit the Lakers before the regular season has even opened up, after Trevor Ariza required surgery on his right ankle last week. The surgery is expected to sideline him for approximately two months."
One of the few bright spots in the Lakers' preaseason and puts more pressure (along with Ariza being out for an extended period due to injury) on the geriatrics to win enough while staying healthy.
I should make a revised version of my western conference predictions list that puts the Leakers in like 14th place or something because at this rate their injured reserve list is going to be larger than their active roster.
"Simmons could soon speak with team officials, something he hasn't done directly since a late August meeting in Los Angeles when he reiterated his desire to be traded, sources told ESPN. He has become more open to the possibility of ending his time away from the team and reporting to Philadelphia, sources said."
If you've already got 100+ million in earnings, is the 30 million really going to make a difference in your life? If you're seriously unhappy in Philly, wouldn't you just take the hit?
Especially after some wise soul told him, "Dude -- you can report and still force their hand. Didn't you learn anything from Harden last year? Show up, collect your money, and play in a way that makes them wish they had already traded you."
Anyone else feel like the vibes here are more relaxed and fun than it has been in years to start the season? Between the new vets, rookies, and Klay, it feels like the community has realistic expectations with tons of reasons for optimism. Maybe this means playing with joy is back!
I wonder how big the disconnect is between players and fans perception of optimism is to start a season.
Hope so. I'm getting vibes of 2014-2015 Warriors again, barring any additional (re-)njuries:
-Feels like we've got depth on the bench
-Poole's going to step into that sixth man role nicely
-The rookies look promising
-Dre's back
-Steph has shown he still needs to be feared by the league,
-Reports of Draymond's demise we're slightly exaggerated
Klay's had about the same time off as KD to recover and is coming along nicely
The big man spot is the wild card. I don't think Wiseman will be who we need him to be (yet), and I think we still need another big, but lordy are we set on the wings and at the point.
If I remember right we were pegged 6th seed that first championship season, and boy did we surprise people. It's a little different this time around but we have enough ball handling, passing, and SHOOTING to terrorize people this season.
I think our floor is conference semis, with a legitimate shot this year to take the Larry O'Brien. Our guys know it could be a special year too and you can see it the way they've been playing and practice with each other.
Two years ago we were coming off of a dispiriting Finals loss, losing KD, and losing Klay to an ACL injury. We also lost Iggy & Livingston. Then Curry broke his hand a few games in and missed most of the season.
Last year we were coming off the pandemic-shortened season and a frankly really terrible Warriors season with very little to get excited about. The day we draft our shiny new #2 pick is the day Klay Thompson blows his Achilles. We have almost no training camp or preseason and look absolutely terrible to start the season.
This year we're coming off Steph Curry's amazing MVP caliber season, we drafted two exciting players and didn't blow up the team chasing some dumb trade for a superstar, Poole is emerging as a legitimate partner to and successor for Steph Curry, Klay Thompson's return is looming, and our two "risky" free agent signings are looking like two of the best off-season acquisitions in the NBA.
Let's just say things right now look A LOT better than the last couple of years and leave it at that.
There were zero superstars available for trade. Not even a superstar that didn't fit well. There were some stars available, and some teams (cough... Philly) asking for crazy returns. The FO was rightfully chasing trades for superstars and stars, and didn't find a trade they liked.
I expect the Warriors to hang around .500 until Thompson suits up on Jan 13 against the Bucks followed by 4 "pre-season" games for him against the Bulls, T-Wolves, Pistons, Pacers, and Rockets and then they turn on the afterburners and wind up with the 5th seed. The Suns, Jazz, and Lakers are clearly better and while I'm not sore sure about anybody else, some team will probably slip in ahead. I don't know how realistic it is, but it *could* happen.
Certainly, healthy OPJ is probably a big drop-in improvement over Bazemore, and Bjelica adds some nice additional options. And if you figure Mulder's still available then Iguodala, Moody, and Kuminga are basically just gravy. So, this year's team should definitely be better than the team that ended last season.
The question is, how good was the team that ended last season, really?
That 15-5 included a nice 6-game home-stand (all wins), facing the Thunder 3 times, the Pels 3 times, etc. Sure, we beat both the Jazz and the Suns, who were still jockeying for seeding, but they weren't exactly "must-win" games for those teams. So I think it's good to take any stats from that stretch with a grain of salt. The fact that we lost to the injured Lakers (on a miraculous buzzer-beater, but still) and lost the must-win game against the Grizz is also important data. The 5 losses included a 30-point walloping by the Mavericks, split games against the Pels, and a stinker against Minnesota too.
No doubt this season will include some head-scratching losses, and I think it's most realistic to assume that the Warriors aren't the #1 seed basically at any point in the season. (Boy that'll be awesome if they do though.)
The issue at the end what not how good the team was but how deep it was (or wasn't). They just ran out of gas in those last two games, which is what one might predict after playing 8 guys for a month. Damion Lee is no worldbeater, but had he been available, I think it would have made a world of difference. Likewise with Oubre.
Why, oh why didn't Steve Kerr unleash let loose the kraken that is Alen Smailagic? ;-)
IIRC they weren't (meaningfully) injured that game; AD played a great game and they would not have won without him. And I don't think he was meaningfully impacted that game. AD and LeBron had to play massive minutes to beat us. The fact he later re-injured himself doesn't have a bearing here.
> That 15-5 included a nice 6-game home-stand (all wins), facing the Thunder 3 times, the Pels 3 times, etc.
If you take away all of the wins over shitty teams most of the League would have losing records. The fact is we weren't consistently beating those teams earlier. We also beat the Sixers (without Simmons) and lost a heartbreaker to Boston with Tatum going bananas, both on the road.
I don't really find your arguments underselling the strong close by the team convincing.
I concur. I do think they caught lightening in a bottle (including winning back to back games against Utah/Phoenix) to go 15-5, but I can't see them struggling to win games with a similar core. I think they'll be ~0.500 against playoff teams and ~0.750 against lottery teams until Klay is ready to be a starter... unless injuries bite hard.
They may have caught some lighting but those wins in that 15-5 run were hard-fought against good playoff teams with something to play for in terms of seeding. Not arguing your prediction necessarily, just saying that the way they ended the season last year is a lot more indicative to me of future performance than the way they started.
I'll keep saying it Westbrook just has no feel for the game. He's a flashy player that's capable of racking up pretty looking assists but isn't very good at doing the little things that doesn't show up on that stat sheet but contributes to winning. His basketball philosophy is very straight forward and relies on brute force/pure effort. He's a guy that can probably carry a team to a low playoff seed like the OKC/WAS days but asking him to play smart basketball (which is required to win titles) on a contender? Don't know. Never seen it and doubt it'll happen. He will most likely bounce back and help the Lakers a lot during the regular season but I have a feeling Lebron will strangle his ass in the playoffs when he shoots a contested pull up midrange to kill all of their momentum.
That point has been brought up a few times and I think it makes the most sense as to why Russ was acquired; I don't think Lebron is that worried about the playoffs if him and AD are both 100%. He is probably far more concerned about making it through a full season of basketball and I bet he takes a step back this year to let Russ run the show so he can bide his strength and preserve his health.
I think it's more like Harden and CP3 thinking they could work together (they couldn't) and then Harden and Westbrook thinking they could work together (they couldn't). Of course that first team was pretty successful and could have had a Chip if not for our very own Dubs. But I'm thinking this year's Lakers experiment is going to look more like Harden and Westbrook due to one of the players being, you know, Westbrook.
Yeah that is very likely and I don't expect Westbrook to suddenly change. My comment was more to agree with Jack as to Lebron's reasoning/plan for the Russ acquisition rather than what I expect to actually happen. I think it will be a rocky road for the LAkers this year, between the injuries and the "figuring out how to fit Russ in" process.
I think some of y'all are focusing on Westbrook entirely, where I actually think Melo is gonna be pretty solid in his role hitting open threes and posting up for only moderately below average half-court offense when LeBron and AD are resting (or out).
He might be a slightly positive offensive player, but not incredibly so due to his insistence on hijacking the offense and taking long 2s (54.7% TS last year which is atrocious for an offense only role-player). Defensively, he might be one of the worst players in the league.
At this point, Melo is one of the least valuable players in the league (due to a combination of him being bad and still receiving legacy minutes which other bad players don't receive) and any minute that Melo is playing will make the opposition really happy.
I mostly agree with you, except that there are a ton of far worse players with similar minutes (mostly rookies), and 55% TS isn't necessarily atrocious -- there are some good offensive players with worse, though they're usually self-creators, e.g. Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson, & Ja Morant.
Fair points. He's one of the worst non-young players in the league (obviously Poku and Wiseman provided worse value last year).
As for terrible efficiency, I was calling it atrocious for a supporting offensive player (not a PI so doesn't really bring playmaking value) who brings absolutely nothing defensively. 55 is only a little below league average and would be fine for a guy who does a lot of other stuff.
totally -- he's mediocre at best, and getting to the age where it all comes crashing down, and like you said, has that ex-star cachet that will make it hard to bench him -- I'm not at all upset that he's on the lakers 😇
I think Westbrook will make a much bigger impact during the regular season. Melo I'd be somewhat more optimistic has like a few solid playoff moments. Maybe hits a big shot or two.
The Lakers have a team that can absolutely rule the boards, and Westbrook is certainly part of that, but his game seems to be particularly suited for a drive-and-kick offense. Problem is, many of those same players making the Lakers a terror inside are not good kick-out targets / spot-up shooters, which is going to make things awkward.
There isn't much wrong with Westbrook that couldn't be cured by not allowing him to ever take a jump shot and if anybody can do that, it would be LeBron. The Lakers have guys that can shoot, cut, and dunk, and if all Westbrook has to do is drive the lane and find them, he will be fine. He will be a liability on defense, but LeBron and AD can cover up a multitude of sins on that end of the court. The real question mark for the Lakers isn't Westbrook, it is whether or not LeBron and AD can stay healthy and on the court for an entire season.
Last couple years have been the same deal for him. New team, he stinks to start season and team struggles. They tweak things to fit him better, and he plays great while team takes a run. Then he's bad in the postseason.
Seems like a decent bet on what might happen this season too.
I think they really have to ride him. Basically let him run the show during the regular season and spot up LeBron off the ball the majority of the time. That's the only way the spacing works and it saves LeBron a lot of work.
Then you almost totally mothball him as much as you can come playoff time. LeBron takes over the show and if you're the Lakers you hope the saved work during the regular season has him fresh for a heavy playoff workload.
Posted pretty much the same thing in a reply to Jack upthread before I saw this. I don't think Russ gets cut out of the playoff rotation entirely as I think he would have earned enough equity with Lebron to play, though not at his regular season minutes averages.
Yes, he'd play. He should. LeBron can't play all 48, and Russ's playmaking would still be valuable when he sits.
But in the last four minutes of a close playoff game...would they have the guts to sit him for a Talen Horton Tucker, Wayne Ellington or Malik Monk? The final minutes should be Lebron, AD, and the best combo of shooting and defense they can muster. He provides neither.
That doesn't work in the real world, more of a fantasy sports kinda thing. You don't spend a whole season molding habits and building your offense and defense just to completely throw that out and reinvent yourself in the playoffs.
I think it could sort of work? Just assume Lebron plays Westbrook's role in the playoffs while some other spot-up shooter gets more minutes in the role that Lebron moved from. On offense at least, that doesn't require a change in habits for anyone besides Lebron, who of all people can probably handle that.
You're right in general, but LeBron would be the guy who I'd believe could make it work.
I thought trading for Westbrook was a mistake. He is what he is. I don't see a way to change him and build habits that work for the playoffs. I'd just use him for what he's good at in the regular season, and then use him a lot less in the playoffs.
It's just preseason! And LeBron wasn't even playing. Westbrook is going to get his turnovers down to like 6 per game when LeBron comes back. Totally manageable ;-)
Of course one wonders how well it will work with Wiseman back on the court who was the primary problem before. Presumably he has had a lot of time work work on court positioning during set plays even if he hasn't been able to run them at full speed with contact. I'm guessing it might be a challenge for Kuminga as well. It should work well for Moody since he would presumably be hanging out in the corner waiting for a pass.
I am expecting Wiseman's role to be much more focused on developing and exploiting his strengths that can immediately help the team. Last year was much more of developing him into a well-rounded player who can do it all. Kerr has already said that this year will be different when being questioned about the role of the new rookies ("they will have to earn minutes, we have really good veterans") and I expect that to be true for Wiseman as well.
I don't think they even know what they're going to get and will go off how he plays. Andre is sitting next to him and will be in his ear though, so I am pretty damn hopeful Wiseman will figure out defense
Right, Wiseman has a "skill" (size) that we don't have and to some extent that will earn him minutes. Moody has multiple players in front of him with similar skill-sets and bodies that he has to earn minutes over. Kuminga is a little more of an in-between where he has a skill due to his strength that we don't really have a lot of, even though his height isn't directly a differentiator. I do think Wiseman is going to need to prove he can be on the floor successfully, but yes I think he'll get that opportunity when he's ready to go, where Moody and Kuminga will need to earn it in practice/garbage time/limited minutes a little bit more.
According to a ClutchPoints article, Kerr also said:
"He’s doing really well, I think James is really kind of coming out of his shell. You can really see the maturity, he’s speaking up in meetings, feels much more confident, I can see it, and then the drill work he is doing, he is really picking things up quickly."
So, he's doing stuff, just not playing in games or jumping. We'll see... I just can't wait till he starts playing in games the fans watch, so I can stop listening to the hand wringers worried about the same Wiseman from last year showing up and ruining everything, and we can all re-baseline against his current level of play.
Yeah, I agree. I see all the signs of a player with the intelligence, motivation and physique to be successful. As Jordan Poole has shown, if you put in the work, it will bear fruit.
Jordan Poole is not just a worker, though... I hate the trope of "you can do anything if you work hard enough". Nope, you gotta have the talent and mental make up for what you want to do, and then you gotta work your @#$@# off to maximize yourself. And if you're not self aware enough to work on the right things, you're going to be "hard working" yourself without seeing improvements.
To be fair, the first and most obvious thing Wiseman had to work on was filling out some more muscle, and it's visible that he did that.
We'll see when he can get some more action on the court whether any of his other work is paying off, but what signals we've been able to pick up on those things so far are also all pointing in the right direction.
That said, there's a huge step between mastering something in practice and being able to apply it in high-pressure game situations, so JW will certainly still look pretty raw his first game back, but I think we'll see him rapidly step it up from there as he starts to unlock stuff he's been studying.
Wish he could work on his lower body strength and live game situations. He's probably learned as much as anyone watching film and running through reps in practice. It's actually playing that would help.
Oct 11, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball, Daniel Hardee
Excellent E1P, so helpful. I especially enjoyed how many different players participated in various forms of H2 (the new Horns). It’s fascinating to see how the team develops a new play for everyone, not just one player.
On Oubre: If he was able to shoot his previous-season average from 3 to start the season, that wide-open shot would be the correct choice. One of my big open questions is whether Oubre was shooting fine in practice during that glacial stretch, and if he felt OK about his shot. One possibility is that there was nothing fundamentally wrong and he just got a bad roll of the dice (which then gave him nerves and became self-reinforcing). Another is that he might have been able to sense/feel the signs that something was wrong with his shot, but he kept hoisting anyway for some reason.
I think the second one is more likely, and if it is that case, then it's on both him and the team's coaching/training/health staff for not recognizing that something was *wrong*. Given how his season ended after it came out that he had apparently been playing through injury towards the end there, I wonder if maybe the lines of communication between Oubre and the team staff were screwed up for whatever reason. There are lots ways I can envision that happening. With the pressure of a contract year on a new team, it's probably hard to be honest with yourself that you're not at 100% yet, if you're even that self-aware. (Look at Otto Porter's troubles with compensating for his hip injury in previous seasons—it's super common for people to be completely unaware of how they're compensating for stuff, including things that have healed already so they shouldn't need to.)
You can also say it's part of the staff's job to notice these things when the players don't, but I'm sure there are a lot of very personal issues that go into that, like communication styles and trust, and everyone disagrees on those things. The NBA is rife with tales like that, from Kawhi forcing his way out of the Spurs down to Patrick McCaw refusing to re-sign with the Warriors. I can't say one side is in the right and the other is in the wrong on these things, but when it's obvious that things aren't working out it's often best for everyone if the player and the team go their separate ways and they get an opportunity to reset elsewhere.
Which is why I'm still glad that Oubre is not on the Dubs anymore.
Oct 11, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball
Second, I think in the case of the double-team of Looney when Poole has drawn the double-team, the intent is likely for the second defender (who has a lot of length and is very close to Looney at this point) to cut off Looney's passing lane to OPJ, who is the real threat in this scenario. That leaves Andre open at the three point line, but they are willing (eager?) to concede that shot at this point in Andre's career. Andre can swing the ball to the open OPJ, and does so very rapidly, but it takes long enough for the defenders to close and shut down the shot. The second double indicates they really don't care what Andre is doing and consider OPJ the real threat here. Andre does have enough room to drive but not to get to the rim, and everyone else is covered, so Andre takes and bricks the open three. This seems like good intentional defense to me, even if it is a little weird looking.
Oct 11, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball
First, I think there's a little bit of narrative bias regarding the first play from Oubre.
I can see why you'd think Oubre is calling for the ball in the initial Horns set from last year. However, I think it's more likely he's pointing like everyone else. If you look at where everyone is pointing you can see everyone is pointing to the same locus. "But Abaddon, Wiseman is turned around and can't see him, so he can't be pointing, he's clearly calling for the ball!" As noted in the video, you can see Lee pointing too, and he's in the far corner and also behind Wiseman. Oubre had his flaws but I don't think he was unfamiliar with Horns, an extremely common set in the NBA. Finally, he's not even looking at Steph! You generally don't call for the ball when you're not looking at the ball-handler. You can see once he realizes the play is busted is when he moves and sets himself up for receiving the pass from Steph.
Once he gets the ball he is, frankly, wide open, and he takes the shot. He should be taking that shot. Yeah, he shot (historically!) terribly from three to open the season, but he shot a respectable 35% from three the previous year. I think a lot of people forget he missed the end of the previous season with a meniscus injury in his knee, and legs are an important component of the three ball. Regardless, it was actually a good look and the right play to take that shot.
There are a lot of legit criticisms of Oubre in his brief tenure with the Warriors, I just don't really think these are good ones.
Thanks so much Eric. Really appreciate the breakdown. Will watch for this tomorrow
Nice E1P, Apricot (as usual). It is so elegant, sometimes I think you just make it up 🙂.
BTW, have you tried opening the video in Vimeo app on Android (clicking 'vimeo' logo in the video opens up the app")? App can't handle it and tells me to use the webpage. And on the webpage, ability to use Chromecast to stream it on TV is not there. Workaround is of course Chromecasting the phone screen. Any idea why I am not able to open it in app?
While we're on the topic of suggestions (and I don't even know if it's possible with Vimeo): is there a way to enable those little thumbnail previews as you hover over the playback timeline/bar that YouTube has?
I don't know... it shows thumbnails when I scrub the timeline in edit mode so... maybe?
Thanks… and I definitely am shooting from the hip and not working with a script…
You have now far surpassed my knowledge of Vimeo… it’s possible I haven’t set something correctly to allow these advanced playback techniques…
Advanced Explain One Plays require Advanced playback techniques. So you have essentially created more work for yourself 🙂.
No hurry. Whenever you get time. Till then, I have a workaround.
New E1P music! Nice changeup, feels a lot more mellow/fun (appropriate for this point in preseason I guess).
Some of the transitions between plays are a bit rough, with the source video cutting to a different angle mid cross-fade. I'm guessing that's to make the video easier to produce but it's a bit jarring.
Love the observation about the shot-clock. That's one of the things I probably wouldn't have even noticed even watching the games closely, because to my mind anything more than about 14 seconds is all the time in the world. (Incidentally: the changes have been subtle, but I appreciate the recent NBA rule change to reset the shot clock to 14 on an offensive rebound. Props to foreign leagues for pioneering that one.)
And yeah, I wonder if it's an evolution in Kerr's own basketball philosophy, to break down some of these bigger plays into "mid-size" interchangeable parts like "split cut", "stagger screen" etc. Then you can master each individual piece in practice, and build up bigger and more complex actions just by mastering the transitions between them and improvising from there.
I remember people making comparisons between peak dynasty Warriors basketball and jazz music, and I like the analogy. You take various basic actions (licks/motifs) and combine them in a kind of free-form way, reading and reacting to the defense (or audience), and occasionally making slight changes, resulting in beautiful new creations that are made of familiar parts but add up to something more.
Thanks for the encouragement, it makes it all worthwhile!
Yes, I agree some of the transitions were clunky but I opted to just fire the video out rather than spend a lot of time smoothing it out. Trying to overcome my perfectionism to just release something interesting out for viewing
I like when you shoot from the hip and let it fly. Perfection always seems too sterile to me.
Given how much work these must be already to produce, I'm all for a little less effort on polish in lieu of more effort on content. Keep it coming!
Where does one get the password? My subscriber password (one I use to login to the site) is not working to watch the video.
Before today, I didn't had enter password for subscriber only videos.
Help!
The text "you’ll need the subscriber password" takes you to here: https://dubnationhq.com/p/subs-central
The password is in bold at the end of that article. It's the same password for all of us, and currently the same one as the last few subs-only E1P videos.
Thanks.
I am already subscribed but it is still showing me "Subscribe Now" followed by "Give a gift subscription".
Hello, if you get stuck, email me at apricotan@gmail.com.
Everyone sees those sub buttons at the end of the article. As long as you can read the subscriber-only article (also bookmarked on the front page on the right=hand side column) you should be able to get the password and view the full version of the video.
Maybe it's the airport day beers, but hot damn I love this content!!
Gettin high on my own supply, but just wanted to publicly say thanks Eric, for such solid content
I love it here!
Mmmm... day beers
Is this some code for De Beers? Or maybe Da Bears? OR...
I've cracked the code: Duby is diamond shopping in Chicago!
Some bad news for the Lake Show:
"Lakers guard Talen Horton-Tucker will undergo surgery to repair torn ligaments in his right thumb, sources told ESPN on Monday. [...] It is the second significant injury to hit the Lakers before the regular season has even opened up, after Trevor Ariza required surgery on his right ankle last week. The surgery is expected to sideline him for approximately two months."
More at the link: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32381450/sources-los-angeles-lakers-guard-talen-horton-tucker-thumb-surgery-repair-torn-ligaments
One of the few bright spots in the Lakers' preaseason and puts more pressure (along with Ariza being out for an extended period due to injury) on the geriatrics to win enough while staying healthy.
That is certainly a blow for them, damn
I should make a revised version of my western conference predictions list that puts the Leakers in like 14th place or something because at this rate their injured reserve list is going to be larger than their active roster.
This is your sign. It ain't happening.
I am confused. Presumably a training camp deal only.
***
Warriors Sign Quinndary Weatherspoon
https://twitter.com/warriorspr/status/1447619684522594305?s=21
Another little guy!
I guess there was an open spot, but ... who?
They just waived Galloway yesterday (or the day before)
Sorry, I was unclear: I meant "who's this guy replacing Galloway", whose name I couldn't dredge up out of my old brain at the time.
Ah, not related. See sabrina above.
Looking like Simmons might blink first:
"Simmons could soon speak with team officials, something he hasn't done directly since a late August meeting in Los Angeles when he reiterated his desire to be traded, sources told ESPN. He has become more open to the possibility of ending his time away from the team and reporting to Philadelphia, sources said."
More at the link: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32380934/philadelphia-76ers-making-progress-talks-ben-simmons-return-sources-say
Easy to say you're willing to throw away millions of dollars, a little harder to actually do it.
If you've already got 100+ million in earnings, is the 30 million really going to make a difference in your life? If you're seriously unhappy in Philly, wouldn't you just take the hit?
I meant forfeiting the entire year (if that's what is required) which is ~33 million for him this year.
I’m pretty sure it hurts to give that up…
Especially after some wise soul told him, "Dude -- you can report and still force their hand. Didn't you learn anything from Harden last year? Show up, collect your money, and play in a way that makes them wish they had already traded you."
Also, get yourself a fat suit
Yeah this seems very likely. If Ben ends up playing, I'd be pretty surprised if he decided to actually "play".
It was a bold strategy... but in order for it to pay out, he's gotta avoid the fines.
*IF* he does play for Philly again, that first home game is going to be must see TV.
I'm assuming that's a rhetorical question?
Oh yea!!
I'm dead.
Anyone else feel like the vibes here are more relaxed and fun than it has been in years to start the season? Between the new vets, rookies, and Klay, it feels like the community has realistic expectations with tons of reasons for optimism. Maybe this means playing with joy is back!
I wonder how big the disconnect is between players and fans perception of optimism is to start a season.
Hope so. I'm getting vibes of 2014-2015 Warriors again, barring any additional (re-)njuries:
-Feels like we've got depth on the bench
-Poole's going to step into that sixth man role nicely
-The rookies look promising
-Dre's back
-Steph has shown he still needs to be feared by the league,
-Reports of Draymond's demise we're slightly exaggerated
Klay's had about the same time off as KD to recover and is coming along nicely
The big man spot is the wild card. I don't think Wiseman will be who we need him to be (yet), and I think we still need another big, but lordy are we set on the wings and at the point.
If I remember right we were pegged 6th seed that first championship season, and boy did we surprise people. It's a little different this time around but we have enough ball handling, passing, and SHOOTING to terrorize people this season.
I think our floor is conference semis, with a legitimate shot this year to take the Larry O'Brien. Our guys know it could be a special year too and you can see it the way they've been playing and practice with each other.
I'm honestly really excited for this season.
KD had ~18 months to recover. Klay will only get 12-13 months if the December return reports are true.
Two years ago we were coming off of a dispiriting Finals loss, losing KD, and losing Klay to an ACL injury. We also lost Iggy & Livingston. Then Curry broke his hand a few games in and missed most of the season.
Last year we were coming off the pandemic-shortened season and a frankly really terrible Warriors season with very little to get excited about. The day we draft our shiny new #2 pick is the day Klay Thompson blows his Achilles. We have almost no training camp or preseason and look absolutely terrible to start the season.
This year we're coming off Steph Curry's amazing MVP caliber season, we drafted two exciting players and didn't blow up the team chasing some dumb trade for a superstar, Poole is emerging as a legitimate partner to and successor for Steph Curry, Klay Thompson's return is looming, and our two "risky" free agent signings are looking like two of the best off-season acquisitions in the NBA.
Let's just say things right now look A LOT better than the last couple of years and leave it at that.
Agree 98%.
My one quibble:
There were zero superstars available for trade. Not even a superstar that didn't fit well. There were some stars available, and some teams (cough... Philly) asking for crazy returns. The FO was rightfully chasing trades for superstars and stars, and didn't find a trade they liked.
"realistic" "expectations".... I know what each word means separately, but what does that mean together
I expect the Warriors to hang around .500 until Thompson suits up on Jan 13 against the Bucks followed by 4 "pre-season" games for him against the Bulls, T-Wolves, Pistons, Pacers, and Rockets and then they turn on the afterburners and wind up with the 5th seed. The Suns, Jazz, and Lakers are clearly better and while I'm not sore sure about anybody else, some team will probably slip in ahead. I don't know how realistic it is, but it *could* happen.
Serious question:
The Warriors finished 15-5 with a rotation of Steph, Dray, Wiggins, Looney, JTA, Bazemore, Poole and Mulder.
If we take away Bazemore and Mulder, and add OPJ, Bjelica and Iggy (plus whatever they Bradley/Moody/Kuminga can give them), are they not better?
Certainly, healthy OPJ is probably a big drop-in improvement over Bazemore, and Bjelica adds some nice additional options. And if you figure Mulder's still available then Iguodala, Moody, and Kuminga are basically just gravy. So, this year's team should definitely be better than the team that ended last season.
The question is, how good was the team that ended last season, really?
That 15-5 included a nice 6-game home-stand (all wins), facing the Thunder 3 times, the Pels 3 times, etc. Sure, we beat both the Jazz and the Suns, who were still jockeying for seeding, but they weren't exactly "must-win" games for those teams. So I think it's good to take any stats from that stretch with a grain of salt. The fact that we lost to the injured Lakers (on a miraculous buzzer-beater, but still) and lost the must-win game against the Grizz is also important data. The 5 losses included a 30-point walloping by the Mavericks, split games against the Pels, and a stinker against Minnesota too.
No doubt this season will include some head-scratching losses, and I think it's most realistic to assume that the Warriors aren't the #1 seed basically at any point in the season. (Boy that'll be awesome if they do though.)
The issue at the end what not how good the team was but how deep it was (or wasn't). They just ran out of gas in those last two games, which is what one might predict after playing 8 guys for a month. Damion Lee is no worldbeater, but had he been available, I think it would have made a world of difference. Likewise with Oubre.
Why, oh why didn't Steve Kerr unleash let loose the kraken that is Alen Smailagic? ;-)
> The fact that we lost to the injured Lakers
IIRC they weren't (meaningfully) injured that game; AD played a great game and they would not have won without him. And I don't think he was meaningfully impacted that game. AD and LeBron had to play massive minutes to beat us. The fact he later re-injured himself doesn't have a bearing here.
> That 15-5 included a nice 6-game home-stand (all wins), facing the Thunder 3 times, the Pels 3 times, etc.
If you take away all of the wins over shitty teams most of the League would have losing records. The fact is we weren't consistently beating those teams earlier. We also beat the Sixers (without Simmons) and lost a heartbreaker to Boston with Tatum going bananas, both on the road.
I don't really find your arguments underselling the strong close by the team convincing.
I concur. I do think they caught lightening in a bottle (including winning back to back games against Utah/Phoenix) to go 15-5, but I can't see them struggling to win games with a similar core. I think they'll be ~0.500 against playoff teams and ~0.750 against lottery teams until Klay is ready to be a starter... unless injuries bite hard.
They may have caught some lighting but those wins in that 15-5 run were hard-fought against good playoff teams with something to play for in terms of seeding. Not arguing your prediction necessarily, just saying that the way they ended the season last year is a lot more indicative to me of future performance than the way they started.
Maybe "lightening in a bottle" was a bit strong, but let me put it this way: I don't see them anywhere near 60 wins.
Pre-Klay, they'll have stretches where they're 15-5 and stretches where they're 10-10 or 9-11.
We have to be real this year. 78-4 will do and 16-3 in the playoffs. Can't expect greatness every year.
Why the pessimism? It's preseason, and the sky is the limit. The Warriors are literally undefeated. I say 82-0 and 16-0 until proven otherwise... ;-)
Let's say 87-0 including preseason
I am seriously jonesing for some Warriors bball.
I know, we have a whole three days inbetween games and it seems like forever.
Also feels like forever since the Lakers have won a game, so hoping we make it 0-4 for the preseason tomorrow night.
Damian?
Ew
OT Hot Take: Carmelo is going to be a better addition to the Lakers than Westbrook.
(Maybe "warm" take right now with how badly Westbrook is playing).
Good timing on this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-carmelo-anthony-can-help-the-lakers/
I'll keep saying it Westbrook just has no feel for the game. He's a flashy player that's capable of racking up pretty looking assists but isn't very good at doing the little things that doesn't show up on that stat sheet but contributes to winning. His basketball philosophy is very straight forward and relies on brute force/pure effort. He's a guy that can probably carry a team to a low playoff seed like the OKC/WAS days but asking him to play smart basketball (which is required to win titles) on a contender? Don't know. Never seen it and doubt it'll happen. He will most likely bounce back and help the Lakers a lot during the regular season but I have a feeling Lebron will strangle his ass in the playoffs when he shoots a contested pull up midrange to kill all of their momentum.
That's probably Lebron's plan at this point. Carry AD&I to the 6th seed or something and stay the f out of my way.
That point has been brought up a few times and I think it makes the most sense as to why Russ was acquired; I don't think Lebron is that worried about the playoffs if him and AD are both 100%. He is probably far more concerned about making it through a full season of basketball and I bet he takes a step back this year to let Russ run the show so he can bide his strength and preserve his health.
I think it's more like Harden and CP3 thinking they could work together (they couldn't) and then Harden and Westbrook thinking they could work together (they couldn't). Of course that first team was pretty successful and could have had a Chip if not for our very own Dubs. But I'm thinking this year's Lakers experiment is going to look more like Harden and Westbrook due to one of the players being, you know, Westbrook.
Yeah that is very likely and I don't expect Westbrook to suddenly change. My comment was more to agree with Jack as to Lebron's reasoning/plan for the Russ acquisition rather than what I expect to actually happen. I think it will be a rocky road for the LAkers this year, between the injuries and the "figuring out how to fit Russ in" process.
I think some of y'all are focusing on Westbrook entirely, where I actually think Melo is gonna be pretty solid in his role hitting open threes and posting up for only moderately below average half-court offense when LeBron and AD are resting (or out).
He might be a slightly positive offensive player, but not incredibly so due to his insistence on hijacking the offense and taking long 2s (54.7% TS last year which is atrocious for an offense only role-player). Defensively, he might be one of the worst players in the league.
At this point, Melo is one of the least valuable players in the league (due to a combination of him being bad and still receiving legacy minutes which other bad players don't receive) and any minute that Melo is playing will make the opposition really happy.
I mostly agree with you, except that there are a ton of far worse players with similar minutes (mostly rookies), and 55% TS isn't necessarily atrocious -- there are some good offensive players with worse, though they're usually self-creators, e.g. Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson, & Ja Morant.
Fair points. He's one of the worst non-young players in the league (obviously Poku and Wiseman provided worse value last year).
As for terrible efficiency, I was calling it atrocious for a supporting offensive player (not a PI so doesn't really bring playmaking value) who brings absolutely nothing defensively. 55 is only a little below league average and would be fine for a guy who does a lot of other stuff.
totally -- he's mediocre at best, and getting to the age where it all comes crashing down, and like you said, has that ex-star cachet that will make it hard to bench him -- I'm not at all upset that he's on the lakers 😇
I'm just going to completely disagree with you and leave it at that.
I think Westbrook will make a much bigger impact during the regular season. Melo I'd be somewhat more optimistic has like a few solid playoff moments. Maybe hits a big shot or two.
The Lakers have a team that can absolutely rule the boards, and Westbrook is certainly part of that, but his game seems to be particularly suited for a drive-and-kick offense. Problem is, many of those same players making the Lakers a terror inside are not good kick-out targets / spot-up shooters, which is going to make things awkward.
Which one of the bigs is Westbrook going to make give him rebounds?
Will he have the clout on this aged Lakers team?
Not if he keeps playing like crap.
> I think Westbrook will make a much bigger impact during the regular season
Positive? :)
(A lot of that comes down to "being willing to put the team first". I don't think Westbrook (or the Lakers) are there yet with Westbrook.
There isn't much wrong with Westbrook that couldn't be cured by not allowing him to ever take a jump shot and if anybody can do that, it would be LeBron. The Lakers have guys that can shoot, cut, and dunk, and if all Westbrook has to do is drive the lane and find them, he will be fine. He will be a liability on defense, but LeBron and AD can cover up a multitude of sins on that end of the court. The real question mark for the Lakers isn't Westbrook, it is whether or not LeBron and AD can stay healthy and on the court for an entire season.
Last couple years have been the same deal for him. New team, he stinks to start season and team struggles. They tweak things to fit him better, and he plays great while team takes a run. Then he's bad in the postseason.
Seems like a decent bet on what might happen this season too.
I think they really have to ride him. Basically let him run the show during the regular season and spot up LeBron off the ball the majority of the time. That's the only way the spacing works and it saves LeBron a lot of work.
Then you almost totally mothball him as much as you can come playoff time. LeBron takes over the show and if you're the Lakers you hope the saved work during the regular season has him fresh for a heavy playoff workload.
Posted pretty much the same thing in a reply to Jack upthread before I saw this. I don't think Russ gets cut out of the playoff rotation entirely as I think he would have earned enough equity with Lebron to play, though not at his regular season minutes averages.
Yes, he'd play. He should. LeBron can't play all 48, and Russ's playmaking would still be valuable when he sits.
But in the last four minutes of a close playoff game...would they have the guts to sit him for a Talen Horton Tucker, Wayne Ellington or Malik Monk? The final minutes should be Lebron, AD, and the best combo of shooting and defense they can muster. He provides neither.
That doesn't work in the real world, more of a fantasy sports kinda thing. You don't spend a whole season molding habits and building your offense and defense just to completely throw that out and reinvent yourself in the playoffs.
I think it could sort of work? Just assume Lebron plays Westbrook's role in the playoffs while some other spot-up shooter gets more minutes in the role that Lebron moved from. On offense at least, that doesn't require a change in habits for anyone besides Lebron, who of all people can probably handle that.
You're right in general, but LeBron would be the guy who I'd believe could make it work.
I thought trading for Westbrook was a mistake. He is what he is. I don't see a way to change him and build habits that work for the playoffs. I'd just use him for what he's good at in the regular season, and then use him a lot less in the playoffs.
I bet they settle on Westbrook leading the second unit and playing some with the first unit.
It's just preseason! And LeBron wasn't even playing. Westbrook is going to get his turnovers down to like 6 per game when LeBron comes back. Totally manageable ;-)
He had 6 or 7 turnovers when he played with LeBron against the Dubs.
You either gotta fit in or fit out, bro!
Great vid!
Of course one wonders how well it will work with Wiseman back on the court who was the primary problem before. Presumably he has had a lot of time work work on court positioning during set plays even if he hasn't been able to run them at full speed with contact. I'm guessing it might be a challenge for Kuminga as well. It should work well for Moody since he would presumably be hanging out in the corner waiting for a pass.
I am expecting Wiseman's role to be much more focused on developing and exploiting his strengths that can immediately help the team. Last year was much more of developing him into a well-rounded player who can do it all. Kerr has already said that this year will be different when being questioned about the role of the new rookies ("they will have to earn minutes, we have really good veterans") and I expect that to be true for Wiseman as well.
I don't know, the way they are talking about "we are pretty small before Wiseman gets back" it sounds like he's going to get minutes.
However I agree, I think (or hope) that they will run more pick and roll with Wiseman which is where he's at his best.
I don't think they even know what they're going to get and will go off how he plays. Andre is sitting next to him and will be in his ear though, so I am pretty damn hopeful Wiseman will figure out defense
We'll see, Iguodala was in Jordan Bell's ear too though when he was a rookie/sophomore.
I’m not getting the ‘chug a Hennessy bottle’ vibe from JW
Right, Wiseman has a "skill" (size) that we don't have and to some extent that will earn him minutes. Moody has multiple players in front of him with similar skill-sets and bodies that he has to earn minutes over. Kuminga is a little more of an in-between where he has a skill due to his strength that we don't really have a lot of, even though his height isn't directly a differentiator. I do think Wiseman is going to need to prove he can be on the floor successfully, but yes I think he'll get that opportunity when he's ready to go, where Moody and Kuminga will need to earn it in practice/garbage time/limited minutes a little bit more.
According to a ClutchPoints article, Kerr also said:
"He’s doing really well, I think James is really kind of coming out of his shell. You can really see the maturity, he’s speaking up in meetings, feels much more confident, I can see it, and then the drill work he is doing, he is really picking things up quickly."
So, he's doing stuff, just not playing in games or jumping. We'll see... I just can't wait till he starts playing in games the fans watch, so I can stop listening to the hand wringers worried about the same Wiseman from last year showing up and ruining everything, and we can all re-baseline against his current level of play.
Can’t wait to see JDub suited up. He’ll be fun to watch teamed up with JP in the 2nd unit
Yeah, I agree. I see all the signs of a player with the intelligence, motivation and physique to be successful. As Jordan Poole has shown, if you put in the work, it will bear fruit.
Jordan Poole is not just a worker, though... I hate the trope of "you can do anything if you work hard enough". Nope, you gotta have the talent and mental make up for what you want to do, and then you gotta work your @#$@# off to maximize yourself. And if you're not self aware enough to work on the right things, you're going to be "hard working" yourself without seeing improvements.
To be fair, the first and most obvious thing Wiseman had to work on was filling out some more muscle, and it's visible that he did that.
We'll see when he can get some more action on the court whether any of his other work is paying off, but what signals we've been able to pick up on those things so far are also all pointing in the right direction.
That said, there's a huge step between mastering something in practice and being able to apply it in high-pressure game situations, so JW will certainly still look pretty raw his first game back, but I think we'll see him rapidly step it up from there as he starts to unlock stuff he's been studying.
Wish he could work on his lower body strength and live game situations. He's probably learned as much as anyone watching film and running through reps in practice. It's actually playing that would help.
Get well soon, James!
Excellent E1P, so helpful. I especially enjoyed how many different players participated in various forms of H2 (the new Horns). It’s fascinating to see how the team develops a new play for everyone, not just one player.
I hadn't seen one of your E1Ps before. (Been living under the proverbial rock.) Very easy to understand. Thanks for the analysis.
Get some chips and a comfortable chair, you're going to be catching up on a lot of videos.
https://www.youtube.com/c/DubNationHQ
He's consolidated a lot of them here. Check the side bar on the main page for the archive and just poke around
Great video! Love seeing the difference between this year's and last year's offense. I have a couple of comments I'm going to split in two.
Agreed on both points.
On Oubre: If he was able to shoot his previous-season average from 3 to start the season, that wide-open shot would be the correct choice. One of my big open questions is whether Oubre was shooting fine in practice during that glacial stretch, and if he felt OK about his shot. One possibility is that there was nothing fundamentally wrong and he just got a bad roll of the dice (which then gave him nerves and became self-reinforcing). Another is that he might have been able to sense/feel the signs that something was wrong with his shot, but he kept hoisting anyway for some reason.
I think the second one is more likely, and if it is that case, then it's on both him and the team's coaching/training/health staff for not recognizing that something was *wrong*. Given how his season ended after it came out that he had apparently been playing through injury towards the end there, I wonder if maybe the lines of communication between Oubre and the team staff were screwed up for whatever reason. There are lots ways I can envision that happening. With the pressure of a contract year on a new team, it's probably hard to be honest with yourself that you're not at 100% yet, if you're even that self-aware. (Look at Otto Porter's troubles with compensating for his hip injury in previous seasons—it's super common for people to be completely unaware of how they're compensating for stuff, including things that have healed already so they shouldn't need to.)
You can also say it's part of the staff's job to notice these things when the players don't, but I'm sure there are a lot of very personal issues that go into that, like communication styles and trust, and everyone disagrees on those things. The NBA is rife with tales like that, from Kawhi forcing his way out of the Spurs down to Patrick McCaw refusing to re-sign with the Warriors. I can't say one side is in the right and the other is in the wrong on these things, but when it's obvious that things aren't working out it's often best for everyone if the player and the team go their separate ways and they get an opportunity to reset elsewhere.
Which is why I'm still glad that Oubre is not on the Dubs anymore.
Second, I think in the case of the double-team of Looney when Poole has drawn the double-team, the intent is likely for the second defender (who has a lot of length and is very close to Looney at this point) to cut off Looney's passing lane to OPJ, who is the real threat in this scenario. That leaves Andre open at the three point line, but they are willing (eager?) to concede that shot at this point in Andre's career. Andre can swing the ball to the open OPJ, and does so very rapidly, but it takes long enough for the defenders to close and shut down the shot. The second double indicates they really don't care what Andre is doing and consider OPJ the real threat here. Andre does have enough room to drive but not to get to the rim, and everyone else is covered, so Andre takes and bricks the open three. This seems like good intentional defense to me, even if it is a little weird looking.
First, I think there's a little bit of narrative bias regarding the first play from Oubre.
I can see why you'd think Oubre is calling for the ball in the initial Horns set from last year. However, I think it's more likely he's pointing like everyone else. If you look at where everyone is pointing you can see everyone is pointing to the same locus. "But Abaddon, Wiseman is turned around and can't see him, so he can't be pointing, he's clearly calling for the ball!" As noted in the video, you can see Lee pointing too, and he's in the far corner and also behind Wiseman. Oubre had his flaws but I don't think he was unfamiliar with Horns, an extremely common set in the NBA. Finally, he's not even looking at Steph! You generally don't call for the ball when you're not looking at the ball-handler. You can see once he realizes the play is busted is when he moves and sets himself up for receiving the pass from Steph.
Once he gets the ball he is, frankly, wide open, and he takes the shot. He should be taking that shot. Yeah, he shot (historically!) terribly from three to open the season, but he shot a respectable 35% from three the previous year. I think a lot of people forget he missed the end of the previous season with a meniscus injury in his knee, and legs are an important component of the three ball. Regardless, it was actually a good look and the right play to take that shot.
There are a lot of legit criticisms of Oubre in his brief tenure with the Warriors, I just don't really think these are good ones.