"In every season since his rookie campaign, Green has taken at least 32 percent of his shots from 3-point range—until this season, when he’s cut his rate by more than half, to just 15 percent. Put another way: Ever since his rookie season, Green has averaged at least two 3-pointers per game—until this season, when he’s down below one per game.
[...]
Instead of 3s, Green is taking a career-high percentage of shots at the rim this season, leading to his highest effective field goal percentage since 2015-16. He’s also just as creative a playmaker for others as ever. With the Warriors offense humming along, there’s no reason for Green to venture back out beyond the arc at the same rate he used to—especially once Klay Thompson returns and adds another knockdown shooter to the rotation."
Last night the Clippers beat the Heat, and the Warriors SoS from BBallRef.... got worse?
The other teams in action were the Pacers, Jazz, Raptors, and Sixers, none of whom the Warriors have played.
I know it's early yet and the stats likely aren't "connected" as not all teams have played one another, but there are some really fishy second-order effects here if a team the Warriors played has a win against a Heat team the BBallRef algorithm still has ranked second (!) behind us in SRS and our SOS gets worse.
According to BBallRef SRS, our sole quality win is against the #6 Clippers; the rest of our opponents starting at #21 in order are the Kings, Hornets, Lakers, Grizzlies, Hawks, [Mavericks], Thunder x2, T'Wolves, Rockets, [Magic], [Pistons], Pelicans. Bulls are #4, Nets are #10, and Cleveland is #12 looking at some future opponents.
We're also #1 in SRS so there's that. SOS alone seems to take into account only the team records whereas SRS factors in the point differential. If we're a good team and we just happened to have an easy schedule, there's a huge difference in being 10-1 with an average margin of victory being +1 vs. +13.
Was that the least violent triple ejection in NBA history? They just kind of pushed each other for a bit, then coaches and refs swarmed the court. Meanwhile the incredibly awful refs could have avoided the whole thing BY CALLING GOBERT FOR A REGULAR FOUL WHEN HE CLEARLY PULLED TURNER OUT OF BOUNDS BY HIS SHORTS. Nearly pulled his shorts off, lol.
I apparently think this is more serious than some. Because of the changes in the rules, play has been more physical. I think that's fine, but they need to make sure they keep a lid on it, with very clear boundaries for what they'll allow. In addition to Gobert and Turner, any of the guys who touched a ref should be fined/suspended.
I probably missed the ref pushing in the giant swirl of coaches and other bodies on the court. So maybe not the least violent. And agreed they should stop this kind of stuff from happening!
Sorry, quadruple ejection. And sorry for the caps... just find it shocking someone can reach out with their long Go Go Gadget Gobert arms and pull someone completely out of bounds, pulling them down to the ground to keep them out of a play, and the refs don't even see it. If they can't cover that happening right under the basket, that's the clearest case I've ever heard they need another ref on the crew.
Eh, the ref was probably just not looking at that as the rest of the action had moved down the court. Not fair to blame him/them. Also ingles came in and pushed Ed Malloy (who is a great ref) very hard. I’d have to think he’s going to be suspended, you can’t do that.
I mean, fully extending your arm and reaching out to pull someone down by their shorts to keep them out of a 5 on 4 probably shouldn't be "oh, we can't really catch stuff like that that." It kind of affects the whole play. And not the type of vet move you want to incentivize by not watching for it.
They called Otto Porter for boxing out last night, Andre for being near a shooter, and Andrew for stepping around a defender… refs make a lot of mistakes, in part based on the viewing angles they have.
Yeah, I guess the more I look the more I find the calls around rebounding/under the basket shockingly bad. I have no idea what over the back is any more.
Shit like that happens all the time. Rebounders getting pushed in the back. Hooking arms so someone else can’t jump, tugging their shorts, stepping on their feet.
The rebounders getting pushed in the back often seems so obvious, even on the broadcast camera, I don't get why they let those go so much. Though the flopping people do does add an extra layer for the refs to sort out.
The other moves are vet moves because they're hard to see... which I'd argue isn't a good description of reaching out and pulling someone to the ground with you.
LOL - yeah I think Morris’s play was dirty and warranted the ejection, but it’d be pretty cold to suspend a guy for getting knocked down and hurting his neck
I noticed Iguodala showing “The Glove” a lot of love on the sidelines last night. He must have crossed paths on basketball courts with Payton Sr early in his career. Does anyone know of a personal connection there?
I don't know how close Andre is with Gary Sr. but him and GPII have had chemistry on and off the floor for much of the last couple of weeks. It's awesome to see because I see no better mentor for Payton on this team than Iguodala. Then again, I could say the same thing for both of our rookies, Damion, JTA, etc. Andre is dope.
I'm pretty sure FiveThirtyEight's player ratings are not reliable, but they currently have Iguodala as the best defender in the league with at least 150 min played. If you relax the conditions all the way down to 50 minutes played, the list is:
1. Josh Okogie (MIN) +14.3
2. Gary Payton II (GSW) +10.1
3. Ty Jerome (OKC) +8.2
4. Andre Iguodala (+8.2)
Actually Payton is up at *2nd overall in the league* for total RAPTOR, behind only Jokic.
If you look closely, the stats are kind of wack in a lot of ways but they do *sort of* capture a sense of how things have been going for guys lately. Which, for Young Glove, has been "very well".
bbref also has Payton at a ludicrous 95 DRtg/134 ORtg (39 NetRtg) with 129 minutes played, which is a decent number (271st out of 447 players with any minutes played)—more time than Rajon Rondo, Maxi Kleber, Austin Rivers, or Pascal Siakam for example.
Weirdly, there is one guy who has both more minutes and a higher NetRtg, Mitchell Robinson of NYK: 297 minutes played, ORtg 150 (!!!), DRtg 109.
More immediately, another super hot guy to look out for is Derrick Jones, Jr., who's been absolutely on fire, having played 114 minutes for Chicago across 7 games so far this season: ORtg 154, DRtg 102. Apparently his skillset includes switchable defense, blocks and rebounds, efficient low-volume scoring, and few turnovers. He sounds kind of like Looney but a better finisher and free-thrower.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Dubs have a lot of guys who are relatively high in the NetRtg charts including Otto (#11), Looney (#16), Bjelica (#17), and Curry (#34) considering how they've started the season. DLee and Iguodala both just outside top 50 as well. A big mixed bag of players have passed through Golden State in the last several years but we seem to have held onto and attracted the most efficient ones—and it's real gratifying to see the payout now.
It's not that ludicrous- if you look at Gary's bbref stats in recent years, he's actually been doing the same stuff (look at his steals per 36 as well as ORtg and DRtg). It's amazing to me how good his numbers actually look, and how little he was able to catch on with anyone.
Just doing some BBall reference research... Wiggins is taking 15% of his shots from mid-range and 38% of his shots from outside the arc, compared to 24% and 35% last year, and 34% and 24% for his career. If this carries over, it's a huge change in his shot profile... and if he can get his 3pt percentage in the 35-37% range, it's kind of a big deal tbh.
OT First time I've heard this about LeBron's injury.
>The report that LeBron James might miss up to eight weeks with his abdominal injury must be extremely concerning for the Lakers, whose net rating is 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court.
This was in a CBS Sports power ranking article that just came out earlier today, which I ran across after reading their article about GPII. Good article.
Yeah... if LeBron is out for 20-25 games already, they'll likely land somewhere in the play in... unless AD gets banged up or Carmelo stops hitting all the 3s.
(I’m bring this over from the other thread since this looks like it’s becoming THE thread.)
For discussion: If Dray needs a night off, who do we think gets the start? There are really a lot of options:
1. JTA seems like a good candidate to start. He’s familiar with playing that role and knows how to find Curry. He’s also had his minutes curtailed because of all the depth and it’s looked like he’s pressing trying to make things happen in short minutes. (The game Iggy sat and he got more minutes was a notable exception.) Kerr throwing him a bone and letting him start would send a message that he’s still important/appreciated and would seem like the Kerr thing to do.
2. Iggy would give them playmaking and defense, but they probably don’t want to wear him down to start the game.
3. Bjelly would probably do well, but I’m guessing they want him as the only other 5.
4. I could also see OPJ starting in a sort of KD-esque PF role. He’s give them rebounding, but not a lot of playmaking, but they’d have to rely on Poole and Steph for the play-making.
5. Kuminga??!! Very probably not.
6. Something crazy like sliding Wiggins to PF and starting Lee or Moody at wing is possible, but not likely.
Chicago is pretty small without Vucevic, so if Dray can't go, you probably go smaller. It'll be interesting to see how Chicago tries to replace Vucevic's rebounding... he's their only player getting >11 minutes that's a good rebounder.
I have the same question. I'm leaning Beli, but wonder if Kerr will take a look at the rest of the Bulls roster and just decide to go without centers for a day
As a side note if you go to lineup data for this year you can then sort by the plus column. As in, +/- per 100 possessions. Fun to play around with when you're 10-1 with a lot of blowouts.
The top 5 lineups all have Bjelica and Iguodala in them. Iguodala is then in the 6th lineup without Bjelica, and Bjelica is in the 7th lineup without Iguodala.
Yea, if nothing else DrayTA seems like it'd be the easy one to plug in and not really affect the rest of the sub patterns (if there has been any consistent one at all).
Yeah, covid tests unfortunately a lot of times come back negative while a person was recently infected and will be contagious soon. So the league's best protocols could still result in players passing it on if the timing is just wrong...
I hope that there's a requirement for even vaccinated people to take daily (or twice daily) tests if they've been in contact with someone who's got a confirmed case...
"In every season since his rookie campaign, Green has taken at least 32 percent of his shots from 3-point range—until this season, when he’s cut his rate by more than half, to just 15 percent. Put another way: Ever since his rookie season, Green has averaged at least two 3-pointers per game—until this season, when he’s down below one per game.
[...]
Instead of 3s, Green is taking a career-high percentage of shots at the rim this season, leading to his highest effective field goal percentage since 2015-16. He’s also just as creative a playmaker for others as ever. With the Warriors offense humming along, there’s no reason for Green to venture back out beyond the arc at the same rate he used to—especially once Klay Thompson returns and adds another knockdown shooter to the rotation."
More at the link: "https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/11/12/22777235/shot-charts-takeaways-carmelo-anthony-trae-young-chris-paul
Last night the Clippers beat the Heat, and the Warriors SoS from BBallRef.... got worse?
The other teams in action were the Pacers, Jazz, Raptors, and Sixers, none of whom the Warriors have played.
I know it's early yet and the stats likely aren't "connected" as not all teams have played one another, but there are some really fishy second-order effects here if a team the Warriors played has a win against a Heat team the BBallRef algorithm still has ranked second (!) behind us in SRS and our SOS gets worse.
According to BBallRef SRS, our sole quality win is against the #6 Clippers; the rest of our opponents starting at #21 in order are the Kings, Hornets, Lakers, Grizzlies, Hawks, [Mavericks], Thunder x2, T'Wolves, Rockets, [Magic], [Pistons], Pelicans. Bulls are #4, Nets are #10, and Cleveland is #12 looking at some future opponents.
We're also #1 in SRS so there's that. SOS alone seems to take into account only the team records whereas SRS factors in the point differential. If we're a good team and we just happened to have an easy schedule, there's a huge difference in being 10-1 with an average margin of victory being +1 vs. +13.
I guess my comment was a bit tangential to your original point.
I'm going to guess that one of the losers of the other games were probably our opponents' opponents?
Eg. we beat ATL. But PHI lost last night and they also beat ATL... so us beating ATL means even less.
Just theorizing since I don't know what formula they're using for SOS.
Have to say it was nice of the nba to schedule a brawl and multiple ejections on the Warriors off night to keep things frosty
lol GP2 as "Dunk-o-matic 3000" (the new E1P on YT)
Loon (in a presser):. "....... Wiggs be acting old sometimes....". Coming from Loon, that's just pure gold. 😃
*Source: MTII article in TA
Gobert and Turner just got in a fight
Was that the least violent triple ejection in NBA history? They just kind of pushed each other for a bit, then coaches and refs swarmed the court. Meanwhile the incredibly awful refs could have avoided the whole thing BY CALLING GOBERT FOR A REGULAR FOUL WHEN HE CLEARLY PULLED TURNER OUT OF BOUNDS BY HIS SHORTS. Nearly pulled his shorts off, lol.
I apparently think this is more serious than some. Because of the changes in the rules, play has been more physical. I think that's fine, but they need to make sure they keep a lid on it, with very clear boundaries for what they'll allow. In addition to Gobert and Turner, any of the guys who touched a ref should be fined/suspended.
Jingles will get suspended for sure, Mitchell probably too. Gobert won’t and Turner probably shouldn’t either.
Agree - Jingles will likely get the biggest suspension. He shoved the ref with two hands and then turned and whiffed on a swing at Turner.
I probably missed the ref pushing in the giant swirl of coaches and other bodies on the court. So maybe not the least violent. And agreed they should stop this kind of stuff from happening!
Sorry, quadruple ejection. And sorry for the caps... just find it shocking someone can reach out with their long Go Go Gadget Gobert arms and pull someone completely out of bounds, pulling them down to the ground to keep them out of a play, and the refs don't even see it. If they can't cover that happening right under the basket, that's the clearest case I've ever heard they need another ref on the crew.
Eh, the ref was probably just not looking at that as the rest of the action had moved down the court. Not fair to blame him/them. Also ingles came in and pushed Ed Malloy (who is a great ref) very hard. I’d have to think he’s going to be suspended, you can’t do that.
I mean, fully extending your arm and reaching out to pull someone down by their shorts to keep them out of a 5 on 4 probably shouldn't be "oh, we can't really catch stuff like that that." It kind of affects the whole play. And not the type of vet move you want to incentivize by not watching for it.
They called Otto Porter for boxing out last night, Andre for being near a shooter, and Andrew for stepping around a defender… refs make a lot of mistakes, in part based on the viewing angles they have.
And agreed, that Otto call was terrible.
Yeah, I guess the more I look the more I find the calls around rebounding/under the basket shockingly bad. I have no idea what over the back is any more.
Exactly. In this case Malloy was looking in the right direction, but probably couldn’t see the shorts tug from his position. NBA players are crafty….
Over the back is not a real foul. It’s not illegal to reach over someone or box them in.
Shit like that happens all the time. Rebounders getting pushed in the back. Hooking arms so someone else can’t jump, tugging their shorts, stepping on their feet.
The rebounders getting pushed in the back often seems so obvious, even on the broadcast camera, I don't get why they let those go so much. Though the flopping people do does add an extra layer for the refs to sort out.
The other moves are vet moves because they're hard to see... which I'd argue isn't a good description of reaching out and pulling someone to the ground with you.
When you have multiple camera angles to see it sure. When the rug is behind the player from your perspective, it’s impossible.
Game over, Pacers win
Between this one and the Jokic/Morris altercation, I think the league should address this clearly and sternly.
Seeing the replay, the actual fight was more of an angry hug… the escalation from others was where things went wrong.
Yeah, I was thinking of the whole conflagration.
This wasn’t as bad tbh. Mitchell and Ingles left the bench and got ejected as well. Mitchell might get fined or suspended for bumping Malloy
Mitchell & Ingles must have been on the court right? as I recall leaving the bench is one thing the NBA is very strict about
On rewatch, it looks like Ingles just completely slammed into Malloy at the beginning of the chaos. Malloy seemed to be smiling though.
I feel like they didn’t suspend Morris because he got injured and missed a game for that already…
LOL - yeah I think Morris’s play was dirty and warranted the ejection, but it’d be pretty cold to suspend a guy for getting knocked down and hurting his neck
Mass ejections; Gober, Turner, Ingles and Mitchell all ejected
Mitchell also bumped Ed Malloy, head ref
Turner blocked Gobert and Gobert pulled Turner down. Then they got in a fight.
Pacers leading Utah by eight going into the fourth. Utah not looking all that special….
Also the Pacers are on the back end of the brutal Denver/Utah back-to-back.
Paschall just took the ball from Sabonis on a rebound and muscled it into the hoop over him. Memories…
Eric is 3-3 from the field. Wonder how he's doing on defense.
NBA efficiency landscape so far into the season from Kirk Goldsberry. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FD7KX_FXIAEuI9z?format=jpg&name=large
Wow. Memphis with #30 defense, and the dubs still lost to them
That's your biggest takeaway?
The Clippers are the only clearly positive team the Dubs have played. Lakers and Kings are on the line and the rest are below or even way below it.
But you have to wonder how much of that comes from the Warriors sending opponents to the shadow realm.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/draymond-green-jordan-poole-warriors-spat-healthy-bob-myers-says?amp
yikes
I noticed Iguodala showing “The Glove” a lot of love on the sidelines last night. He must have crossed paths on basketball courts with Payton Sr early in his career. Does anyone know of a personal connection there?
I don't know how close Andre is with Gary Sr. but him and GPII have had chemistry on and off the floor for much of the last couple of weeks. It's awesome to see because I see no better mentor for Payton on this team than Iguodala. Then again, I could say the same thing for both of our rookies, Damion, JTA, etc. Andre is dope.
I'm pretty sure FiveThirtyEight's player ratings are not reliable, but they currently have Iguodala as the best defender in the league with at least 150 min played. If you relax the conditions all the way down to 50 minutes played, the list is:
1. Josh Okogie (MIN) +14.3
2. Gary Payton II (GSW) +10.1
3. Ty Jerome (OKC) +8.2
4. Andre Iguodala (+8.2)
Actually Payton is up at *2nd overall in the league* for total RAPTOR, behind only Jokic.
If you look closely, the stats are kind of wack in a lot of ways but they do *sort of* capture a sense of how things have been going for guys lately. Which, for Young Glove, has been "very well".
bbref also has Payton at a ludicrous 95 DRtg/134 ORtg (39 NetRtg) with 129 minutes played, which is a decent number (271st out of 447 players with any minutes played)—more time than Rajon Rondo, Maxi Kleber, Austin Rivers, or Pascal Siakam for example.
Weirdly, there is one guy who has both more minutes and a higher NetRtg, Mitchell Robinson of NYK: 297 minutes played, ORtg 150 (!!!), DRtg 109.
More immediately, another super hot guy to look out for is Derrick Jones, Jr., who's been absolutely on fire, having played 114 minutes for Chicago across 7 games so far this season: ORtg 154, DRtg 102. Apparently his skillset includes switchable defense, blocks and rebounds, efficient low-volume scoring, and few turnovers. He sounds kind of like Looney but a better finisher and free-thrower.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Dubs have a lot of guys who are relatively high in the NetRtg charts including Otto (#11), Looney (#16), Bjelica (#17), and Curry (#34) considering how they've started the season. DLee and Iguodala both just outside top 50 as well. A big mixed bag of players have passed through Golden State in the last several years but we seem to have held onto and attracted the most efficient ones—and it's real gratifying to see the payout now.
It's not that ludicrous- if you look at Gary's bbref stats in recent years, he's actually been doing the same stuff (look at his steals per 36 as well as ORtg and DRtg). It's amazing to me how good his numbers actually look, and how little he was able to catch on with anyone.
Re: the DJJ/Loon comparison.
DJJ is pretty athletic so he's more like CHI's version of GP2 when it comes to play style.
Oh good, they've figured out that Draymond is a better defender than Poole. Still useless tho...
Just doing some BBall reference research... Wiggins is taking 15% of his shots from mid-range and 38% of his shots from outside the arc, compared to 24% and 35% last year, and 34% and 24% for his career. If this carries over, it's a huge change in his shot profile... and if he can get his 3pt percentage in the 35-37% range, it's kind of a big deal tbh.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wiggian01.html
Nice! Also more of his 3PA are coming from the corners as well.
Nice find! He does seem to be taking way less long and mid range 2s this year.
OT First time I've heard this about LeBron's injury.
>The report that LeBron James might miss up to eight weeks with his abdominal injury must be extremely concerning for the Lakers, whose net rating is 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court.
This was in a CBS Sports power ranking article that just came out earlier today, which I ran across after reading their article about GPII. Good article.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/warriors-have-unlocked-a-monster-in-gary-payton-ii-whose-high-flying-highlights-are-becoming-must-see-tv/?fbclid=IwAR1B1WbMX__X-SYhtxgaqFwdO_ckGcg4ko7DBB_1QD403h6DuhRCNGbryEU
Yeah... if LeBron is out for 20-25 games already, they'll likely land somewhere in the play in... unless AD gets banged up or Carmelo stops hitting all the 3s.
I hope we don't get hit with covid after playing the bulls. Sixers causing a chain reaction
(I’m bring this over from the other thread since this looks like it’s becoming THE thread.)
For discussion: If Dray needs a night off, who do we think gets the start? There are really a lot of options:
1. JTA seems like a good candidate to start. He’s familiar with playing that role and knows how to find Curry. He’s also had his minutes curtailed because of all the depth and it’s looked like he’s pressing trying to make things happen in short minutes. (The game Iggy sat and he got more minutes was a notable exception.) Kerr throwing him a bone and letting him start would send a message that he’s still important/appreciated and would seem like the Kerr thing to do.
2. Iggy would give them playmaking and defense, but they probably don’t want to wear him down to start the game.
3. Bjelly would probably do well, but I’m guessing they want him as the only other 5.
4. I could also see OPJ starting in a sort of KD-esque PF role. He’s give them rebounding, but not a lot of playmaking, but they’d have to rely on Poole and Steph for the play-making.
5. Kuminga??!! Very probably not.
6. Something crazy like sliding Wiggins to PF and starting Lee or Moody at wing is possible, but not likely.
Any other ideas?
Kerr will suit up. It is the Bulls after all.
Kerr revenge game?!??!
Chicago is pretty small without Vucevic, so if Dray can't go, you probably go smaller. It'll be interesting to see how Chicago tries to replace Vucevic's rebounding... he's their only player getting >11 minutes that's a good rebounder.
I have the same question. I'm leaning Beli, but wonder if Kerr will take a look at the rest of the Bulls roster and just decide to go without centers for a day
Yeah, so many options.
I'd guess JTA or Porter. Probably JTA.
As a side note if you go to lineup data for this year you can then sort by the plus column. As in, +/- per 100 possessions. Fun to play around with when you're 10-1 with a lot of blowouts.
The top 5 lineups all have Bjelica and Iguodala in them. Iguodala is then in the 6th lineup without Bjelica, and Bjelica is in the 7th lineup without Iguodala.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2022/lineups/
The best 3 man combo has been Bjelica, Curry, and GP2.
The 2nd best has been Bjelica, Curry and Iguodala.
3rd best in a not insignificant sample size of 63 minutes is Bjelica, Porter and Iguodala. What better accolade could there be for the three min vets.
Start Kuminga cowards
Thank you, I read this in Arnold Schwarzenegger's voice and it made me laugh.
I didn’t, but then read your comment and tried it - it was 🔥
Green starts but is limited to 20-24 minutes
“If Dray needs a night off…”
JTA is the easy option for Dray understudy and that makes most sense to me.
We might see something like Steph-GP2-Lee-Iggy-JTA, which is small lineup, but all 5 guys punch above their weight-class.
I love this lineup.
Yea, if nothing else DrayTA seems like it'd be the easy one to plug in and not really affect the rest of the sub patterns (if there has been any consistent one at all).
Vucevic Out with covid. I would rest Dray now. And dam hope we don’t get any cases of the bulls have more
Regardless of opposition: Dray to play if he's ready, and sit if he's not.
Yeh .. I just think this makes the decision easier to rest or limit him
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ opponent player availability should not even enter the discussion
It definitely does. It’s a variable in the decision. I’m more worried about covid. the sixers played the bulls twice. Now we play bulls.
Yeah, covid tests unfortunately a lot of times come back negative while a person was recently infected and will be contagious soon. So the league's best protocols could still result in players passing it on if the timing is just wrong...
I hope that there's a requirement for even vaccinated people to take daily (or twice daily) tests if they've been in contact with someone who's got a confirmed case...