259 Comments

Oh goodie, Stan Van Gundy

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Jan 5Liked by Eric Apricot

Such a useful E1P. I watched the game a second time to follow TJD, but did not know enough to see what was going on. NowI understand why TJD was sometimes out of position and also why he didn’t seem to be rebounding some of the shots. Now I understand the concern about JK playing with TJ D.

BTW Hooker-Bitzade is definitely not welcome on TJD Atoll at this time.

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Concerning the breaking news about Dray's return, I have seek an expert's point of view, a friend of mine who studied psychology. She said that there is NO CHANCE that an anger control problem, like the one that Draymond Green has had all of his sportsman's life, can be solved with one month's counseling. The subject is lucky if he ever really solve it in YEARS. I'm open to discussion and to assessments from people more expert than her, but anyway, I have a very ugly foreboding about this situation. I have the impression that the pressure upon Dray will be higher instead of lower, so will be his self-charged responsibility, therefore it will be even easier to fall again into violence spiral. The fact is, this time I'm afraid he will pull down with him half of the team.

I really hope to be wrong. Cheers

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Here is my schtick about psychological counseling and Draymond. A doctor I went to who treats the Warriors described his experience in the treatment area at one time. When he was finished doing his work, he told me that the psychologists walked in. That’s psychologists….Plural. I find it hard to believe that Draymond has not been counseled by various professionals for a long time. And so I don’t think it’s just suddenly he is being given counseling for a month after the incidents this fall. Or last year. Or 2016. End of schtick.

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My guess here is that if people are walking in, that they are sports psychologists, hired for the purpose of improving focus and performance and so on. As a therapist, I don't walk in. That violates confidentiality right there. If Draymond wants to talk to an actual psychologist for his own reasons, it would not occur in the locker room, if the professional has an ounce of ethicalality. Ethicalism? Ethicalishness.

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So true, but we do not know if they then moved into another room. And I take your point about there being specialized psychologists.

But I still believe that Draymond has had counseling way before now. Even some people’s cats get counseling these days. My cat does not, but I’m all for people getting help when they need it.

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Who the heck is even going to decide that he can return? Is the League going to give him a test that he needs to pass? Maybe, he can be placed under probation. I don’t know. Is there a precedent for this?

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There are decades where nothing happens and weeks when decades happen.

The only people who know at this point where Draymond is in his healing process are himself, maybe some close loved ones and maybe whoever he's been talking to.

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Nice! I'm going to use "There are decades where nothing happens and weeks when decades happen. "

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Jan 5·edited Jan 5

Sounds like you and your friend are assuming Draymond is not continuing in therapy; I don’t know if that’s the case, but hopefully it isn’t as that would be terribly dumb.

Assuming he is continuing in therapy, is the expectation that he must be “fixed” or the problem “fully resolved” for him to return to play? That doesn’t make sense to me either?

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It's meaningless, as you suggest. People don't "fully resolve." He might make progress, but declaring total victory would be silly.

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Vecchio mio tu non hai capito: ce lo teniamo fino alla fine. Volenti o nolenti. Ma chi se lo prende lui lì....

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😆 Thank goodness for Google Translate!

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It was an easy italian line to translate. The argument was pretty easy to understand too. I really hope to be wrong but I would split the core right in this moment

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Yeah I'll take this with a huge grain of salt unless said "expert" has actually talked with him.

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Not interested in the armchair psychoanalysis, huh? Me neither...

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I don't know what will happen with Draymond. I don't know that he even has a diagnosable mental health concern.

That said, it is usually the case that mental health concerns do not improve in one month. But also: it could happen. A person can do a 180 in one session, or even on their own. We are not in the land of certainties. I have helped people pivot a great deal in a month, and not because I'm so amazing but because they were so ready.

Truckeeman is correct that the most likely indicator of success is motivation to change.

Signed,

Your Friendly Neighborhood Therapist

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I will be pleasantly surprised if he makes it through the season without getting another lengthy suspension.

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I am not sure I agree. There may some underlying physiological elements that are taking Draymond past a line that he mostly didn't cross before. And/or psychological/behavioral contributors......the better question is whether Draymond is motivated to change or whether he likes this level of intimidation/violence.

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Hakeem Olajuwon punched a bunch of players in his career and he turned out fine. So its possible to have self restraint at some point.

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I didn't realize Hakeen had punched players. Yikes! I would not want that big fella that level of angry at me, even if I were NBA-sized.

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I am in agreement with her and you that it will not change. Would be absolutely wonderful to be wrong of course.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

It won't. We're just hoping he can fight the urge as much as he can. I believe it would also help if he can join Klay in accepting their roles on this year's team as the two timelines has officially collided. I feel like him and Klay felt the responsibility of carrying the heavy load alongside Steph and felt frustrated when it wasn't leading to good results. They can relax now. The kids are growing up. That's just my opinion though. I hope he puts the team first when he comes back because without him playing at peak form we ain't winning jack shit past April.

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And here I thought the two timeliness was always about helping the vets off into the sunset playing less minuets and making life easier.

Turns out it was always about letting them know it's OK to step down through these trying times 😂

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Klay sure was playing like he wasn't ready to hand over the torch up until now TBH. Let's see if he keeps it up

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Jan 5·edited Jan 5

Seems like Draymond is not playing minuets, but the 1812 Overture.

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Can we talk defense? All the klay, jk, moody benching trading etc talk. I’d love to hear some defense analysis. It’s actually my favorite part of basketball. So what’s up with the warriors d, and can it get better without draymond? And can you play wiggs, tjd, jk, podz with steph? Arent some teams built as: get stops and then run?

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Watch this: https://youtu.be/P4yvBwyogBU?si=EPu0v8PO06FtVUiW.

No, really, it’s excellent, and despite the video name is more defensive analysis than anything else.

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From some brief perusing of team defensive stats on nba.com, it seems like the problem is the Warriors allow relatively high frequency of efficient modes of scoring: they have the highest opponent frequency scoring off cuts, the sixth highest off screens, the fifth highest in transition, and so on. Inefficient modes of scoring like isolation or spot-ups are relatively uncommon against the Dubs. Basically, offenses seem to be getting the types of shots they want against them.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Draymond hasn’t been part of a good D lineup yet this year.

It seems the D needs to communicate to succeed. The lineup you brought up looks like it could be great at D if they learn how to communicate better. Wiggs and Kuminga don’t seem to communicate well enough yet and so they need a CP talker helping them and don’t do as well as one would hope when on D together.

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He’s shared a bunch of time with trash Wiggs and trash Klay messing up rotations and bad offense… I expect Dray’s and Loon’s defensive stats look better with that stuff cleaned up a bit.

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Loon was part of the issue too

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Jan 5·edited Jan 5

Loon is most effected by trash Wiggs/trash Klay. He’s slow and unable to recover to the rim when the F up ICEing a screen or giving up a back door, or getting back in transition…

He looked waayyy better to my eye last game because his teammates weren’t f-ing up their assignments, so he had help where he expected, and stuff

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Moody seems to be a key to unlocking Curry lineups Defensively. And down at the 10 min threshold Draymond shows up with Curry and Moody.

The only Curry lineup with a D rtg under 100 is with Moody, Podz, Looney and Wiggs in very limited minutes.

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The CP, TJD, Podz trio can play nasty D combined with any of the following players:

Saric, Moody, GP2, Kuminga

And the combo of Wiggs+Saric

And when the D rtg. is sub 100 the offense is generally great as well.

Guesses as to why:

The lineups seem to have good paint protection with TJD + disruptive perimeter D with Podz, Kuminga and GP2 and good size + spacing with Saric at the 4.

They also have played primarily against backups.

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Of the 4 lineups Kerr has played over 50 minutes this year only 1 has a defensive rating under 110: the CP, Curry, Klay, Wiggs, Loon lineup has a defensive rating if 106.5 and a net rating of +18.2 in 93 minutes together. It also happens to be the only positive 5 man lineup that has played together more than 50 minutes this year.

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That’s fascinating. That’s basically last year’s starters except CP as primary ball handler over Dray.

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Klay's old buddy/rival Kevin Love on transitioning to a smaller late-career role. Wonder if those two have ever talked about this. I'm guessing not, but maybe they ought to.

“Embrace it. It starts by leading by example and using my voice because I’ve seen a lot and done a lot in this league... A lot of people would say it’s a lesser role. But it’s not less important. Everybody gets to write a verse in this. I’m in here trying to write mine, and have it be an important role.”

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Was this a previous quote, or about Klay specifically?

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It's recent, but he's talking about himself, not Klay. Seems like the change of scenery, the Heat's success, and Spoelstra's coaching had a lot to do with his ability to make the transition, because things were not as easy in Cleveland as I recall. But surely it also involved a good deal of introspection and personal development. I admire Love a lot because he came into the league as a very talented, very cocky all-star, and has gone through a couple of pretty public metamorphoses en route to this latest phase as sage veteran on the league's most mature team.

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Made Haslem expendable?

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The account I read about Haslem was that he wanted to retire a year ago, but the Heat asked him to come back (a la Iggy).

Haslem was a 20 year vet. I'm sure he had plenty of reasons to retire.

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OT: Ricky Rubio ends NBA career; Cavs agree to buyout, sources say | ESPN: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39240801/sources-ricky-rubio-cavaliers-agree-contract-buyout

Sad to see; a really unique and fun player, who didn't ever quite manage to have the impact in the NBA that he seemed destined for. Glad to hear he is taking care of his own health and well-being though, as that is more important.

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Wonder how much steph played a role

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Golden State Warriors Player Profile | Brandin Podziemski | Golden State Warriors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxOaMxyaoPM

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Well I didn't mean to, but I have apparently set up camp on Dray hill and it appears to be the hill I am going to die on.

For people who want Dray traded, do you also like the lineups with Steph and CP0? 'Cause I hate them, but without Dray, that's what we're going to see.

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I get it that Green is integral to this team but it still remains to be seen if and when he will be able to play as effectively while keeping his emotions and aggressive behavior in check. That is a big IF. Meanwhile, the team is starting to gel and win(some) without him. I would hate to see that disrupted.

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My other handle is wastindadaysprime

I’ll die in that hill with you my friend :)

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New Steph and Dray lineup when Steph comes back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7hVuVwvT8w&t=123s

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

That was fun (a couple of those lineups had Jokovich and Steph on the same team. I'd like to see that in real (non-allstar) competition).

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I honestly feel our success is tied directly to an effective and engaged Draymond. I am not sure what effect this latest suspension will have on him. Will he channel his anger into a positive? Will he become a target for other teams to see if they can get him ejected? It could be tough. Draymond's got a tough road ahead of him, one that he brought on himself. But, I just don't feel we go anywhere without him. The one thing I do feel for sure is this is his last shot with the Warriors. This is it. It's going to get interesting. Ramp up.

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>Will he become a target for other teams to see if they can get him ejected?

Definitely. They're gonna try to get on his nerves in every possession when he's out there.

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I do wonder whether the NBA will choose to do anything about it... for instance, if Dray gently body slams a guy and gets in his face, will they review prior plays to determine if he was instigated (See: Mitchell, Donovan)? Or will they just throw up their hand and say "Draymond" in an exasperated voice, while suspending him for 5 games?

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Definitely the second thing, because Joe Dumars is a sadistic hypocrite, although I think it's quaint to think the next suspension will be only 5 games.

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The league is going to be in an interesting place if they suspend Dray for the rest of the year for "aggressively chest bumping Rui Hachimura after Hachimura dragged Draymond to the ground on a rebound"... Dray should just retire, go on TNT, and they can do a segment every night called "Dray would get suspended for this @#%@" to replace "Ernie's neat-o stat of the night".

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Draymond got himself into this. So if Rui drags him to the ground, wisdom would dictate no more than brief verbal sparring (mostly for the ref's benefit), and then Draymond should walk away. It's going to be like that for awhile, maybe a long while. If he doesn't like walking away, he shouldn't have elbowed Nurkic in the head, punched Poole, or headlocked and dragged Gobert, not to mention earlier nut punches and such. (Let's remember that he did not just put Gobert in a headlock, he then dragged him by the neck.)

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Ironically Joe Dumars, having played in Detroit, was a supporter of Draymond before Dray started going too far.

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I'd say that about sums it up. I wonder though, how upset the Team is with Dray. Like I bet Klay isn't mad about him putting Gobert in a headlock. And his previous suspension was pretty unfair considering the circumstances. Some possibility the team is upset with the league as much as with Dray.

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True, I forgot about that angle. I think there has been some clear frustration with Draymond for years, but (DISCLAIMER: I have never met Draymond, nor do I know much about his personal life) I feel that he is genuine about wanting to do what is best for the team. I think he has flaws that he recognizes, he has mentioned these in the past. But you bring up an important point about how the team, especially the young guys feel about his return. Like I said it will be interesting.

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I think the last clothesline of Nurkic probably put to bed any lingering "Dray is just being Dray and the League is being unfair" thoughts.

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The "I flail instead of flopping to sell the call" excuse was truly lame.

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As was the "I'm apologizing, which means it wasn't intentional"

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We need Draymond to bolster our defense. He's the only one who can defend guys like Jokic and other skilled bigs. However, if he does something incredibly dumb to get himself suspended multiple games again, then I want him off the team.

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I don't hate the lineups with Steph and CP, but I absolutely want Dray back, assuming he can get his head screwed on straight.

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I really like the "JK posts up a smaller defender" offense... run a split cut to get the defense focused on the perimeter, leaving their smaller defender on an island, and simplifying the passing/cutting lanes on the weak side... Option 1: if Steph/Klay springs open, on the strong side, get the open 3. Option 2: JK attacking a smaller defender in the post. Option 3: weakside screening/cutting action to get an open weakside corner 3 or a cutter/putback opportunity.

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I agree. That works well and I hope they go to it more.

One thing I have not seen that I hoped to see for both JK and Wiggs is an off ball screen for them so they can cut to the hoop off a pass from Steph or Klay with the ball. Usually at least one low defender will jump at them leaving 1 or 0 defenders under the hoop. With the off ball screen I have a lot of faith in either of them getting a bucket, foul, or both one on one with whomever is left (possible exceptions of course in players like Gobert, AD, Embiid, etc)

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https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1742981526319673674

Golden State’s Draymond Green — on an indefinite league suspension since Dec. 13 — is expected to return to the Warriors’ facility in the coming days to start ramping up to resume play again, sources tell ESPN.

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I'm setting the over/under on his next incident at 10 games from his return.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Define "incident"? Does it include only suspensions/ejections? Does it include honest F1 fouls? Or does it also include Dray getting instigated and then not ejected? Or does it include even somebody flopping to draw a flagrant foul review? What about Dray getting kicked in the groin (without even seeing a foul called)?

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Short answer: yes.

What is an "honest F1 foul" where Draymond is concerned? I don't think he's going to be allowed to get away with anything.

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Unnecessary contact (F1) does not have to be intentional. It is possible to accidentally draw an F1.

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Personally, I'm fine if the league calls his game extra-tight. He has long since used up any benefit of the doubt.

Start calling techs when he yells at the officials, too.

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As long as calling his game extra tight doesn't mean opponents get to beat him up with impunity.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

It will, tho… 😔

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

By "honest F1", I mean an actual F1, like when Franz Wagner smacked Steph in the head on Tuesday (not even reviewed, of course). Something that's a little excessive, probably not intended, but definitely a F1 by rule, and definitely not a F2 by rule. And yes, your point about the "Draymond escalation scale" is relevant.

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Unnecessary and excessive would be F2 though.

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Of course. Should I clarify something better?

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Kerr's recent comments confirmed as an effort to align with the NBA push for "good optics".

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Will the Golden State Warriors Do Something Drastic? | Kevin O'Connor | TheRinger: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/1/4/24025022/nba-trade-rumors-warriors-kings-thunder

Some nice recognition of the development of the young Warriors, followed by the usual "...but with Kuminga and Moses Moody, they have two tradable young guys to pair with their first-round picks from 2025 through 2029 at their disposal.", followed by a poo-poo platter of trade suggestions for Draymond.

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> followed by the usual "...but with Kuminga and Moses Moody, they have two tradable young guys to pair with their first-round picks from 2025 through 2029 at their disposal."

This is the thing. Ever since the Warriors pulled off the perfect storm maneuver in landing Kevin Durant for nothing in Free Agency, people are envisioning the Warriors trading for "the star that just fits right"... when in reality, there's no available star that's going to just slot in perfectly. Like, maybe Markannen... but he's not all that available, and he's not nearly in the realm of "the star that guarantees contention" either. Siakam? He's fine, and more get-able, but no... I can squint and see Dray + Moody + picks for Siakam being possibly worthwhile... but there's no way Ujiri is even remotely interested in that, even if I were to convince myself that it's a good thing for the Warriors...

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"a poo-poo platter of trade suggestions" This cracked me up. Normally I would figure you meant "pu pu platter" but in this case "poo-poo platter" was spot on!

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Orlando's off. efficiency went up from #24 to 22 and their def. deficiency fell from #2 to 4 after the @Warriors and @Kings games.

Also, Celtics are currently #1 offense, #5 defense; 76ers are #4 offense, #2 defense.

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I was going to post a stats comparison of Wiggins vs. Kuminga but it's effectively even, more or less. One thing that stands out is that Wiggins can't hit a three at 30% but Kuminga really can't hit a three at 28%; whereas from 2pm Kuminga is effective at 50% and Wiggins is pretty low at 42%. I'd say if one goes from just this information, Kuminga's overall FG% argues for his starting over Wiggins, but it's not a ... slam dunk.

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I mean we're kind of all depending on Wiggs getting his 2 and 3% back up to where it's been that last couple years. This year's Wiggs is not as good as JK but the old one was better. Fingers crossed for both of them to keep making decisions difficult in a good way.

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It's a little cherry picked, but since 11/18, in 16 games, Wiggins has a 41% 3P% & 45% FG%... it's only manifested in a 57% TS%, but it's a bit of a sustained improvement...

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Yup. SSS but finger crossed.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Science is here to help. Moses Moody vs. Klay Thompson, this year, per 36 minutes.

Points: Moody 16.4, Klay 20; Rebounds Moody 6.4 Klay 4.4; Assists Moody 1.7 Klay 2.5; Steals Moody 1.4, Klay .6; FG% Moody 47% Klay 42% 3FG% Moody .330 Klay .377. FT% Moody 77% Klay 89%

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TS

Moody .589

Thompson .565

(As long we’re doing science, FG% tells us effectively nothing about a player’s scoring efficiency. Ditto FG%, 3FG%, and FT% taken together without the context of their relative volumes).

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Sure... but if Kerr is looking at the 5 on the floor and wanting to find somebody to pull defenders out of the paint to improve spacing when we're on offense, who's he going to pull off the bench? TJD (who leads the team in TS%) or Klay Thompson? TS% isn't telling the whole story either...

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

So, Klay is much more of a shooting threat. Moody's volume is much lower, so more susceptible to SSS variance... he really needs to be better than a 33% 3pt shooter to get on the floor. I wonder if some of that is due to indecision when he's receiving the ball at the 3pt line, some of which may be influenced by wanting to show the coaching staff that he's doing the right things/capable of doing more.

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He definitely hesitated on some open threes last time he saw the court. Stuff getting into his head. But he was still effective. He’s wiggins sub more than Klay’s at 70/30 and he’s good enough to fit next to Kuminga unlike Wiggins.

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Right, he's good enough to be on the floor either way.

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100%!

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He's been really emphasizing attacking the close out and going left... I think it's to show the coaching staff that he can be effectively attacking left, even without using his left hand to finish.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4Liked by Eric Apricot

Any chance the league makes those Bitzade plays to be flops? Why not challenge something like that?

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

284 lb Nikola Jokic getting pushed by Steph, flinging his head and arm back and stumbling backwards is an offensive foul against Steph. Steph, getting pushed in the back while in midair after making a layup and falling awkwardly is a flop.

So, no.

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Stop making me go to the bad place...

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Text me when you get here. We'll get a drink.

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First round is on me.

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I'm already too sloshed to find my wallet.

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Honestly I want that called as a flop on everyone when it's done. Even Draymond. Let's take the Olynyk out of basketball.

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I think now the league can fine for flops after the game, yes? I do NOT want constant interruptions of the game for yet more technical fouls, much as I hate flopping. I would rather the refs not call a foul (so the flop fails to achieve its purpose) and let the league decide later if a flop should be fined.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

I'd rather they called it a personal foul (so it counts toward the foul limit). And, if you hook and drag a guy to the ground, make that a flagrant 1 (that's what that move is, really ... it's definitely unnecessary contact).

The reason that move is so prevalent (Dray and Looney do it all the time) is that the refs have a hard time picking it up live. But, if it was a point of emphasis, and they stuck with it (they never really do), they could get that move out of the game.

Players adjust ... once it started getting called regularly, the frequency of that foul would be reduced.

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

I think hooking should be a personal foul for sure. The foul that was called on Looney instead of Bitzade (I think it was Bitzade), who was hooking Looney big time, was ridiculous. But old fashioned flopping... I'd rather see the player get a fine later just because too many Ts slow down the game, and we already have enough of that. But I don't want the flop to be effective in drawing a foul.

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You're right, the maneuver Bitzade pulled on TJD was way worse... I hate the dark arts...

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Jan 4·edited Jan 4

Honestly, what I'd really like to see is that there is some post-game review process where players can be assigned flagrant 1's and 2s for egregious fouls (of all kinds). Seeing that foul live is going to be tough, unless they add an official.

But, if players knew that someone would review the film, and they could be suspended for the next game, that would be a deterrent, I think. All the penalties in the world don't matter if the refs can't spot it, or won't call it live.

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Do players have to learn to scream bloody murder when they're grabbed? Do they have to jump awkwardly and scream at the same time?

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Teams already submit those things... doing most of the legwork of finding it. It shouldn't be too hard to find a solution involving warnings, fines, partial suspensions, etc. But I suspect part of the problem is the "fairness" of "he committed a foul, didn't get caught, and got his team 2 points in a game that went to OT, so they should have lost, and AFTERWARD you're admitting it was a foul, but not retroactively fixing it?!?!? I lost $3,000 on my under bet!"

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With how sparse challenges are you really need to save challenges for either getting yourself points or taking points away from your opponent. And even if it’s free-throws, if it’s for a non-shooter that might not qualify as taking enough points away unless it’s late in the game.

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If you can get an easy win, it’s worth it, imo

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Esp for the first one; I'd rather the team get an easy few point swing and have another challenge than save it to gamble on an iffy but "more important" call. Keep the final challenge safe, use the first one on an obvious call

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I'm not sure there is such a thing as an 'obvious' call anymore, seeing the travesties that have been upheld upon review recently. See Gobert holding down Dray who has inside position being upheld as a loose-ball foul on Dray, or that KAT charge the other day.

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Jan 4Liked by Eric Apricot

Hahahhah

So the e1p took so much time cause Eric had to track down the original frogger and got sucked into playing for two days!

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author
Jan 4·edited Jan 4Author

Heh heh… no, but if Steph ever yells Robotron 2084, that might be a problem

In reality, it took a while because I’m ill and I did a breakdown of the new starting lineup for all plays of the first seven minutes of Q3 and also was studying the “can JK and Wiggs work together” issue and then realized I had way too much material and just had to release *something* before the next game started

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Robotron was squarely in the too-hard category for me, right below Defender. Much more of a Galaga player.

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Jan 4Liked by Eric Apricot

Hope you are better soon. We are going to need you for a long run of E1P celebration audits. I can feel it.

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Jan 4Liked by Eric Apricot

Your commitment to the cause is noted and appreciated, comrade. Now please get well.

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Jan 4Liked by Eric Apricot

I hope you get better quickly Eric!

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