It all evens out in the end (with a mild advantage for the good teams, who don’t have to play themselves; and a mild disadvantage for the bad teams, who don’t get to play themselves).
In any case, SOS is a fairly blunt measure this early in the season. You’d really need to adjust it for the specifics of each team’s schedule (injuries, opponent injuries, segababas, opponent segababas e.g.) for it to be meaningful. And even then … we’re talking a very small sample of games.
Not true, there is some schedule imbalance baked in e.g. we played the 67 win Spurs twice away and only once at home. Or you might play a team not in your division two times and another team in that division three times.
I mean, yes, “it evens out” is shorthand for “I’m too lazy to parse through the Warriors’ and Clippers’ full 82-game schedules to figure out which might be marginally more difficult in terms of B2Bs, opponent B2Bs, 3-game v 4-game Conference opponents, etc. — so let’s just assume they’re substantially similar.”
The first 13 games of this season marked the very worst stretch of 13 games in Andrew Wiggins' entire NBA career as measured by Box Plus/Minus: https://stathead.com/tiny/HHOuh
On a related note, Klay's last 11 games mark the 16th worst 11 game stretch of his entire NBA career as measured by Box Plus minus: https://stathead.com/tiny/eipF8
On the positive side of the coin, Klay played even worse than this at the start of last season then managed to bounce back.
To me, most of the Warriors' woes so far this season can be traced to Thompson's and Wiggins' coincident struggles.
But that is not all the bad news:
Chris Paul's field goal percentage so far this season is also the 22nd worst 15 game stretch over his entire NBA career: https://stathead.com/tiny/9Xgpl
It's also the very worst stretch of his entire NBA career as measured by Hollinger's Game Score: https://stathead.com/tiny/apbaJ
Finally, Jonathan Kuminga's 26.8% usage so far this season is far too high for his 51% true shooting percentage: https://stathead.com/tiny/FKmnT
On the bright side, however, things could have been even worse were Poole still around.
Podz, Moody, and TJD all need to get more offensive opportunities because they are the only players other than Curry, Looney, and Draymond whose scoring efficiency so far this season is at or above league average.
Podz in particular has been killing it with the 15th highest true shooting percentage among all NBA players with the same or higher usage and the same or higher three point attempt rate: https://stathead.com/tiny/bqgec
OT: When you're watching the game at home, which musical staple do you most enjoy hearing on the in-arena speakers? (I say 'watching at home' because the music always seems intrusive and overstimulating to me when I've been in person; so setting that objection aside...) And let's exclude 'Levels' since that one means the team won :)
For me it's the obvious, 'I Got 5 On It.' But honorable mention to 'Nas Is Like,' which always feels novel somehow.
For road arenas, I love how Minnesota starts ever game with 'When Doves Cry.' Not the most obvious choice, thematically—you'd think 'Let's Go Crazy' or 'Housequake' or something—but it sounds awesome.
Well, I still get pumped up thinking I'm gonna see MJ and Scottie run out when I hear the Bulls PA play Sirius. Too bad they just have Zach and an aging Demar to offer us
Gary Payton II remains out tonight in Phoenix with a foot strain. Third straight missed game. Had been listed as questionable. Steve Kerr said a return is near.
Pretty much tells us what we already know. He needs to take fewer tough shots and make a higher percentage of the easy ones. A lot like … last season at this point. And many of his peak seasons.
shot making will come and go, but what is becoming more consistent are his errors during ball handling and passing. That seems to have increased this season, at least from looking at him play!
Isn’t playing armchair GM or coach the whole idea of discussions we have here? I think it might be a dereliction of duty not to have opinions and thoughts on Klay’s value going forward.
If you’re finished beating up on those straw men, I’ll just point out that I don’t really disagree with any of your points about Klay. And I definitely agree with your last paragraph.
Couldn't get into the site to read the article. Have to sign up. It's cheap enough but don't want to become a sports junkie. Already a political junkie.
Article from Monday. Most likely before the game. I saw a different Klay that night. My only concern were a few real obvious passes that were picked off in the OKC game. Tonight against Suns is only one game but kinda important for Klay IMO. Consistency matters. It's what a player/ team builds on. Let's hope he drops 28 pts on 50/50/90. Of course LeBron will still be the lead story (even if he doesn't play) but I'll take it.
You should definitely subscribe to the Athletic. It’s cheap and great. Makes ESPN look like trash. The Shams/Harper piece is a few days old now, so here’s a relevant excerpt:
===
Klay Washed? Should the Warriors do something?
I don’t know exactly what the Warriors offered the 33-year-old Thompson during extension negotiations that seemingly went nowhere, but the future Hall of Famer decided to bet on himself. Typically, that has been smart for him to do. He’s one of his era’s best competitors, an all-time great shooter and an undeniable winner. But, as Las Vegas’ bright lights can attest to, you sometimes lose these bets.
Thompson has had an abysmal start to the season. Through 13 games:
• Thompson’s 14 points per game would mark his fewest since his rookie season in 2011-12 (12.5). His overall shooting (40 percent) and 3-point efficiency (33) are on pace for career lows.
• Along with the worst true shooting percentage of his career (52) Thompson also has the worst turnover rate of his career (12.9 percent), the first time he’s had a double-digit mark.
• During the Warriors’ six-game losing streak, he’s averaging 11 points on 30.9 percent from the field and 28.2 percent on 3s.
• And, despite Thompson doing his best to compete, his defense isn’t close to what it once was. At his peak, his two-way impact is what made him so special. This season, the Warriors are better without him on the court, though it’s a marginal difference due to the early-season sample size.
Is a Warriors change fathomable? Probably not. The idea of them trading Thompson seems reactionary at best. There are also plenty of ways he can turn it around. Thompon is currently making 50 percent of his wide-open 3-pointers compared to just 19.4 percent of his open 3s. Going forward, I’d guess he can shoot 20 percent on open 3s with his weak hand.
Is it simply a matter of Thompson just making shots and everything snowballing from there? This season’s struggles would be easier to weather if not for him making over $40 million. If Thompson’s salary comes down to the $20-25 million range in his next deal, slow starts become easier to deal with.
The Warriors flat-out can’t compete for a title without a massive bounce back from Thompson.
Thanks. Good article. Another 10-15 games will determine the Thompson conundrum. My 1st thought was 6th man or hired gun. Good 3 pt shooters seem to extend their careers with that skill set. But not at $40 mill per.
It's almost as if Warriors (as a team) and Klay have the same problem. I got the feeling it's gonna get ugly soon. A strong win tonight will leave all guessing.
1. Is moody better than klay - possibly not at spot up or catch-and-shoot shot making, but currently making fewer mistakes with the ball, better at getting to the rack, and better on defense
2. Kerr still believes the OGs are better then any of the YGs, so despite what Klay's numbers say, he will refer to past history. I guess, this is where the real issue is for the team - when do they realize the Klays role needs to change and will he accept it?
Only semi-related, Caitlin Clark is averaging 14 3PA per 40 minutes right now, which is basically peak Steph Curry volume. Her percentage is down in the early going, so we'll see whether that stabilizes, but for comparison's sake: Sabrina Ionescu attempted about 10 threes per 40 last year. Same for supreme gunners Arike Ogunbowale and Jewel Loyd. If Caitlin comes in taking 40% more than they do, that'll be wild to see in a league where the balance of power between bigs and guards seems to be within sight of a tipping point.
At the same time, I'm not sure I'd totally agree with the tweet's premise that it's a "missing piece" this season. I can pretty easily see Moses, Jon, and/or Dario providing everything we see in that clip. Though granted, it was nice to have Otto's size, consistent shooting, rebounding, high IQ play, and solid D all in one player.
Maybe worth noting that last season Kuminga put up the same 3FG (.370) and significantly better TS (.597 to .581) than Otto in his one season as a Warrior?
I agree ... I think people think Otto was some magical player.
He was good, and a necessary player for that year (no way we get a title without him), but we got lucky. He's not irreplaceable by any means.
I'd rather have 70% of Otto with Kuminga, and know he's going to play 75 games. And, it's very likely Kuminga will get better as the season progresses.
He's not irreplaceable, but he's not replaceable by Kuminga who can't shoot or pass nearly as well as him. Saric helps replace him (more of a Bjelica replacement though) but what was helpful for those Warriors was having both OPJ and Bjelica, having another guy like that on this roster would really help unlock someone like GP2 for instance. Lineup versatility is important and the Warriors currently only have one frontcourt player who can shoot. I wouldn't trade Kuminga for OPJ given the health issues and expiring contract and the chance that he's waived later in the season anyway, but I do think the team would be playing better if they had healthy OPJ over healthy Kuminga. As someone who said you thought Kuminga would be better this season than Jrue Holiday, I'm sure you disagree, fair enough.
Also I'm really not trying to be the anti-Kuminga guy here, this part goes for Moody as well, but there's no guarantee at all of a "third year leap" just because they are young. We had a recent reminder of that with Wiseman.
It's more than I'm betting on improvement, than saying Kuminga is better (I did say 70%).
He's an additional scorer, and a workhorse. I'd still rather have Kuminga.
Sure, if you could wave a magic wand and say OPJ plays 70 games and is healthy through the playoffs, I would agree with you. But, with those conditions, there are probably about 2 dozen players I would also like.
I know this has already been discussed like 20 times on this site, but if Otto was waived would we be able to sign him? Or are we not allowed because of the new CBA?
I don't know of any reason we couldn't. If he's waived, then all we would pay is the minimum, and that's allowed, unless you are hard-capped, I believe (we are not).
I thought there was something about like not being able to sign someone to a minimum on the buyout market who wasnt previously on a min if you’re in the luxury tax? Or am i hallucinating lol
And here I thought GP2 ascending from 15th man to plus-minus monster was the most unlikely part. (Seriously, some metrics had him at like 15th best player IN THE LEAGUE at times.)
All-star Wiggins, Poole parties in the playoffs, and the healthy, effective return of Klay were also kind of surprising events.
Fully off topic, but wow has 538 been gutted. I used to enjoy laughing at their sports metrics, but I'm sad some of their features were turfed to make it just a political prop with some good prior press.
OT: new NBA video titled "Kevin Durant Drops Near DOUBLE-DOUBLE (31pts 9ast)". Really? We're now celebrating almost double-doubles? A near-double-double is no triple-single!
I was hoping you'd do the "51" play! It really stood out on the broadcast when CP was yelling "FIFTY-ONE! FIFTY-ONE!" when it cut to a closeup of him. Got a brief explanation on-thread (thanks those who responded) but getting a video breakdown is much appreciated.
FYI a new game thread will post at 5pm Pacific at https://dubnationhq.com/p/2023-24-game-16
Warriors are still #1 in strength of schedule played:
https://powerrankingsguru.com/nba/strength-of-schedule.php
Clippers have the easiest schedule to date, while the Suns have the 2nd easiest schedule.
Same division but somehow we got the hardest and they get the easiest
It all evens out in the end (with a mild advantage for the good teams, who don’t have to play themselves; and a mild disadvantage for the bad teams, who don’t get to play themselves).
In any case, SOS is a fairly blunt measure this early in the season. You’d really need to adjust it for the specifics of each team’s schedule (injuries, opponent injuries, segababas, opponent segababas e.g.) for it to be meaningful. And even then … we’re talking a very small sample of games.
> It all evens out in the end
Not true, there is some schedule imbalance baked in e.g. we played the 67 win Spurs twice away and only once at home. Or you might play a team not in your division two times and another team in that division three times.
I mean, yes, “it evens out” is shorthand for “I’m too lazy to parse through the Warriors’ and Clippers’ full 82-game schedules to figure out which might be marginally more difficult in terms of B2Bs, opponent B2Bs, 3-game v 4-game Conference opponents, etc. — so let’s just assume they’re substantially similar.”
Suns played: Spurs (x2), Jazz (x3), Pistons.
Clippers played: Blazers, Jazz, Spurs (x2), Grizzlies.
Woah yeah those are easy as hell schedules at least based off the season to date
No, this was not just our imagination.
The first 13 games of this season marked the very worst stretch of 13 games in Andrew Wiggins' entire NBA career as measured by Box Plus/Minus: https://stathead.com/tiny/HHOuh
or by Hollinger Game Score: https://stathead.com/tiny/KqdzI
On a related note, Klay's last 11 games mark the 16th worst 11 game stretch of his entire NBA career as measured by Box Plus minus: https://stathead.com/tiny/eipF8
On the positive side of the coin, Klay played even worse than this at the start of last season then managed to bounce back.
To me, most of the Warriors' woes so far this season can be traced to Thompson's and Wiggins' coincident struggles.
But that is not all the bad news:
Chris Paul's field goal percentage so far this season is also the 22nd worst 15 game stretch over his entire NBA career: https://stathead.com/tiny/9Xgpl
It's also the very worst stretch of his entire NBA career as measured by Hollinger's Game Score: https://stathead.com/tiny/apbaJ
Finally, Jonathan Kuminga's 26.8% usage so far this season is far too high for his 51% true shooting percentage: https://stathead.com/tiny/FKmnT
and his 101 offensive rating: https://stathead.com/tiny/qINBA
On the bright side, however, things could have been even worse were Poole still around.
Podz, Moody, and TJD all need to get more offensive opportunities because they are the only players other than Curry, Looney, and Draymond whose scoring efficiency so far this season is at or above league average.
Podz in particular has been killing it with the 15th highest true shooting percentage among all NBA players with the same or higher usage and the same or higher three point attempt rate: https://stathead.com/tiny/bqgec
Lonnie-Fucking-Walker at 7
OT: When you're watching the game at home, which musical staple do you most enjoy hearing on the in-arena speakers? (I say 'watching at home' because the music always seems intrusive and overstimulating to me when I've been in person; so setting that objection aside...) And let's exclude 'Levels' since that one means the team won :)
For me it's the obvious, 'I Got 5 On It.' But honorable mention to 'Nas Is Like,' which always feels novel somehow.
For road arenas, I love how Minnesota starts ever game with 'When Doves Cry.' Not the most obvious choice, thematically—you'd think 'Let's Go Crazy' or 'Housequake' or something—but it sounds awesome.
California Love!
Well, I still get pumped up thinking I'm gonna see MJ and Scottie run out when I hear the Bulls PA play Sirius. Too bad they just have Zach and an aging Demar to offer us
No Embiid for the 76ers in the @ Timberwolves game tonight.
https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1727401626196234496
No Reddish for the Lakers tonight in the vs. Mavs game tonight. Davis and Hood-Schifino are probable. Lebron is questionable.
https://twitter.com/jovanbuha/status/1727425448580370822
they have locked up IST so now the OGs can rest up
https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1727102213317906913
Gallo looks to be officially available soon.... but for trade apparently. No realistic way for us to get him that way.
To be fair they’ve been expected to move Gallo since they got him lol. The surprise is that it’s taken them so long to do it.
Gary Payton II remains out tonight in Phoenix with a foot strain. Third straight missed game. Had been listed as questionable. Steve Kerr said a return is near.
https://twitter.com/anthonyvslater/status/1727427231365144881
Boo
Is this the Pray for Klay thread?
Theathletic article today by Zach Harper + Shams Charania does not paint a very good picture:-(
Pretty much tells us what we already know. He needs to take fewer tough shots and make a higher percentage of the easy ones. A lot like … last season at this point. And many of his peak seasons.
shot making will come and go, but what is becoming more consistent are his errors during ball handling and passing. That seems to have increased this season, at least from looking at him play!
Isn’t playing armchair GM or coach the whole idea of discussions we have here? I think it might be a dereliction of duty not to have opinions and thoughts on Klay’s value going forward.
If you’re finished beating up on those straw men, I’ll just point out that I don’t really disagree with any of your points about Klay. And I definitely agree with your last paragraph.
Post injury Klay would NEVER lead the league in 3pt makes over a whole season! He’s just not the same player anymore.
But, yeah… Father Time is undefeated. And the talking heads proclaiming Klay “done” will eventually be right. We’ll see how it goes this year.
Couldn't get into the site to read the article. Have to sign up. It's cheap enough but don't want to become a sports junkie. Already a political junkie.
Article from Monday. Most likely before the game. I saw a different Klay that night. My only concern were a few real obvious passes that were picked off in the OKC game. Tonight against Suns is only one game but kinda important for Klay IMO. Consistency matters. It's what a player/ team builds on. Let's hope he drops 28 pts on 50/50/90. Of course LeBron will still be the lead story (even if he doesn't play) but I'll take it.
You should definitely subscribe to the Athletic. It’s cheap and great. Makes ESPN look like trash. The Shams/Harper piece is a few days old now, so here’s a relevant excerpt:
===
Klay Washed? Should the Warriors do something?
I don’t know exactly what the Warriors offered the 33-year-old Thompson during extension negotiations that seemingly went nowhere, but the future Hall of Famer decided to bet on himself. Typically, that has been smart for him to do. He’s one of his era’s best competitors, an all-time great shooter and an undeniable winner. But, as Las Vegas’ bright lights can attest to, you sometimes lose these bets.
Thompson has had an abysmal start to the season. Through 13 games:
• Thompson’s 14 points per game would mark his fewest since his rookie season in 2011-12 (12.5). His overall shooting (40 percent) and 3-point efficiency (33) are on pace for career lows.
• Along with the worst true shooting percentage of his career (52) Thompson also has the worst turnover rate of his career (12.9 percent), the first time he’s had a double-digit mark.
• During the Warriors’ six-game losing streak, he’s averaging 11 points on 30.9 percent from the field and 28.2 percent on 3s.
• And, despite Thompson doing his best to compete, his defense isn’t close to what it once was. At his peak, his two-way impact is what made him so special. This season, the Warriors are better without him on the court, though it’s a marginal difference due to the early-season sample size.
Is a Warriors change fathomable? Probably not. The idea of them trading Thompson seems reactionary at best. There are also plenty of ways he can turn it around. Thompon is currently making 50 percent of his wide-open 3-pointers compared to just 19.4 percent of his open 3s. Going forward, I’d guess he can shoot 20 percent on open 3s with his weak hand.
Is it simply a matter of Thompson just making shots and everything snowballing from there? This season’s struggles would be easier to weather if not for him making over $40 million. If Thompson’s salary comes down to the $20-25 million range in his next deal, slow starts become easier to deal with.
The Warriors flat-out can’t compete for a title without a massive bounce back from Thompson.
Thanks. Good article. Another 10-15 games will determine the Thompson conundrum. My 1st thought was 6th man or hired gun. Good 3 pt shooters seem to extend their careers with that skill set. But not at $40 mill per.
It's almost as if Warriors (as a team) and Klay have the same problem. I got the feeling it's gonna get ugly soon. A strong win tonight will leave all guessing.
And all the latest power rankings have us well out of contender range…
Why cant the warriors compete without klay? Isnt moody up and coming? I dont hnderstand
well.
1. Is moody better than klay - possibly not at spot up or catch-and-shoot shot making, but currently making fewer mistakes with the ball, better at getting to the rack, and better on defense
2. Kerr still believes the OGs are better then any of the YGs, so despite what Klay's numbers say, he will refer to past history. I guess, this is where the real issue is for the team - when do they realize the Klays role needs to change and will he accept it?
If Klay just sucks, WNGBC.
OT: Steph protégé Azzi Fudd will miss her junior year at UConn with another knee injury. that really sucks.
Uuuugh no :(
Only semi-related, Caitlin Clark is averaging 14 3PA per 40 minutes right now, which is basically peak Steph Curry volume. Her percentage is down in the early going, so we'll see whether that stabilizes, but for comparison's sake: Sabrina Ionescu attempted about 10 threes per 40 last year. Same for supreme gunners Arike Ogunbowale and Jewel Loyd. If Caitlin comes in taking 40% more than they do, that'll be wild to see in a league where the balance of power between bigs and guards seems to be within sight of a tipping point.
Yeah, not likely she'll stick around for one more year, but would be fun if they could have gotten Clark on the to-be-named Warriors x WNBA team
https://twitter.com/egoovo/status/1727228918787342759
Still doesn't feel real that we got this much production out of OPJ that season.
We got more games out of him than the 19/20/22 seasons COMBINED.
And, we got him a good contract ... which I think is great. Great dude, really unfortunate injury history.
It was really a minor miracle.
At the same time, I'm not sure I'd totally agree with the tweet's premise that it's a "missing piece" this season. I can pretty easily see Moses, Jon, and/or Dario providing everything we see in that clip. Though granted, it was nice to have Otto's size, consistent shooting, rebounding, high IQ play, and solid D all in one player.
Maybe worth noting that last season Kuminga put up the same 3FG (.370) and significantly better TS (.597 to .581) than Otto in his one season as a Warrior?
I agree ... I think people think Otto was some magical player.
He was good, and a necessary player for that year (no way we get a title without him), but we got lucky. He's not irreplaceable by any means.
I'd rather have 70% of Otto with Kuminga, and know he's going to play 75 games. And, it's very likely Kuminga will get better as the season progresses.
> He's not irreplaceable by any means.
He's not irreplaceable, but he's not replaceable by Kuminga who can't shoot or pass nearly as well as him. Saric helps replace him (more of a Bjelica replacement though) but what was helpful for those Warriors was having both OPJ and Bjelica, having another guy like that on this roster would really help unlock someone like GP2 for instance. Lineup versatility is important and the Warriors currently only have one frontcourt player who can shoot. I wouldn't trade Kuminga for OPJ given the health issues and expiring contract and the chance that he's waived later in the season anyway, but I do think the team would be playing better if they had healthy OPJ over healthy Kuminga. As someone who said you thought Kuminga would be better this season than Jrue Holiday, I'm sure you disagree, fair enough.
Also I'm really not trying to be the anti-Kuminga guy here, this part goes for Moody as well, but there's no guarantee at all of a "third year leap" just because they are young. We had a recent reminder of that with Wiseman.
It's more than I'm betting on improvement, than saying Kuminga is better (I did say 70%).
He's an additional scorer, and a workhorse. I'd still rather have Kuminga.
Sure, if you could wave a magic wand and say OPJ plays 70 games and is healthy through the playoffs, I would agree with you. But, with those conditions, there are probably about 2 dozen players I would also like.
I know this has already been discussed like 20 times on this site, but if Otto was waived would we be able to sign him? Or are we not allowed because of the new CBA?
I don't know of any reason we couldn't. If he's waived, then all we would pay is the minimum, and that's allowed, unless you are hard-capped, I believe (we are not).
I thought there was something about like not being able to sign someone to a minimum on the buyout market who wasnt previously on a min if you’re in the luxury tax? Or am i hallucinating lol
It was the most unlikely part of that magical run
And here I thought GP2 ascending from 15th man to plus-minus monster was the most unlikely part. (Seriously, some metrics had him at like 15th best player IN THE LEAGUE at times.)
All-star Wiggins, Poole parties in the playoffs, and the healthy, effective return of Klay were also kind of surprising events.
Tied with Jimmy Butler for #7 in the league by 538’s RAPTOR model:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/
Fully off topic, but wow has 538 been gutted. I used to enjoy laughing at their sports metrics, but I'm sad some of their features were turfed to make it just a political prop with some good prior press.
lol Jeff Teague:
https://twitter.com/DailyLoud/status/1726787934454796510
(I think he's speaking for the entire Eastern Conference from 2011 to 2018...)
Moody Motors has a ring to it. Who needs Tesla?
I’m assuming Kerr’s comments about GP2 indicate a likelihood that he’ll play, right?
Nevermind…
OT: new NBA video titled "Kevin Durant Drops Near DOUBLE-DOUBLE (31pts 9ast)". Really? We're now celebrating almost double-doubles? A near-double-double is no triple-single!
Why not, the whole "double double" thing is kind of silly to begin with.
🎉 celebrating your post that has almost sixty non-punctuation characters! 🎉
💥 💥 💥 💥 💥
AI FTW!
I was hoping you'd do the "51" play! It really stood out on the broadcast when CP was yelling "FIFTY-ONE! FIFTY-ONE!" when it cut to a closeup of him. Got a brief explanation on-thread (thanks those who responded) but getting a video breakdown is much appreciated.
It’s covered in both videos!
Joe Viray also covered it over at GSOM.