I was asked the other day what I thought of Wagner as a Michigan alum and the first comp that came to mind was Mike Dunleavy, Jr.
Interestingly, what stands out to me is watching Dunleavy play against Michigan in college — he was EVERYWHERE. He was great playing team defense, almost never made mistakes, and was a well-rounded player. My two big questions with him were similar to those with Wagner: 1) how will he handle the physicality of the NBA? and 2) is he assertive enough?
Obviously, saying that a draft prospect compares favorably to Dunleavy isn’t going to excite any Warriors fans … but he had a 15-year career and was clearly a top 10 prospect in that draft even in retrospect, and had a skill set that would fit pretty well with this current group. Wagner is the better on-ball (college) defender and stands to be a similar shooter over time… so yeah, I can talk myself into him being a solid pick at 7. But I also bring up Dunleavy to temper (my own) expectations— the similarity in watching the two in college is way too stark for me to ignore and, for that reason, I am sort of skeptical that he’ll be a Day 1 contributor in the way some people are thinking …
Man, your keen insights have been sorely missed over the past year or so! And your thoughts on your fellow Wolverines are especially welcome. I can only go by the stats and the few clips I’ve seen, but the one statistical area where the otherwise apt Wagner/Dunleavy comp breaks down is FT shooting: Wagner shot 83% and 84% in his two college seasons —extremely impressive for a 18-19 year old — where Dunleavy shot in the high 60s all three years at Duke.
That should have been a red flag to us about his NBA shooting, which was ultimately I think the one of biggest reasons we let him go: after a decent start to his career (35-37-39% in his first three seasons), he dropped down to 29% and 31% in seasons four and five, and was shipped off in the middle of season 5.
He somehow discovered a ~40% three point stroke after leaving us (of course, because Warriors) but it took him 6-7 seasons to get there. The hope with Wagner is that the 84% college FT presages a more consistent and reliable three point stroke, even if his college 3fg number (34%) was not that impressive. I think there’s also some concern about the lowness of his release point, though it doesn’t look that bad to me in clips. And thoughts on his shooting potential from a regular observer?
Yeah, the FT% observation is really just something we missed with Dunleavy… and, again, I do think Wagner’s a MUCH better (college) on-ball defender.
My concern with his shooting is that it always looks like he’s straining when he’s shooting from deep off the catch/dribble — the video above sort of shows that when discussing areas of improvement with the “shooting consistency” point with a lot of those shots from deep just coming up short.
The bigger thing is it can feel sometimes like he’s blending into the mix of things so well that he just disappears for stretches, which goes to the assertiveness point in the video.
I dunno … even in typing everything out I’ve kinda talked myself into him now lol he clearly has a ton of assets, but I just won’t be getting overly excited.
It might also be a scheme and era issue. Kerr utilizes the Dunleavy skillset much more than other coaches. And most NBA teams made off ball cutting and passing virtually useless during that era. If your name didn’t start with an R you weren’t getting utilized. Reggie, Ray, Rip, etc.
Doesn’t knock down 40% of his threes … yet? I see 34% last season, unless I’m reading wrong. But as noted above, the killer FT shooting is real cause for hope.
Very good rebounder, too: 8.3 boards for 40, or 1.5 more than Scottie Barnes averaged.
Wagner, obviously. I like the IQ, passing, and confidence when driving to the basket. Don't like the low release point on his shot, and I think he'll get put on a leash trying to defend good ball handlers, at least at first. But I think he's got a higher floor than lots of guys outside the top 4. Value-wise, I'd prefer him in the 9-13 range if a trade down were possible, and there are a few others I'd get more excited about. But if he's the pick at 7, I'll just be happy that he's not Mitchell.
I’m hoping Nico lighting it up for Team Italia in the Olympic qualifiers will help quietly push them away from seriously considering Mitchell at #7. They’re similar players, only Nico is three years younger. And one of them basically precludes the other.
Mike Dunleavy Jr. (who I think has some sway in the ultimate decision) also recently made a comment about the dangers of limiting yourself to guys perceived to be “NBA ready.” Was very relieved to hear that. Todd Fuller, Adonal Foyle, Ike Diogu, Ekpe Udoh and others say hi…
Wagner. In addition to the defense, this stood out: “ In some systems, he could be a major threat facilitating from the elbow areas, running dribble handoffs with shooters or serve as the ball handler or screener in the pick-and-roll.“ Gotta love playmaking.
As for Jackson, explosive rim runner, we can get Chris’s for cheap, no? It’s not clear that Jackson will be better than Chris’s anytime soon, so hard pass.
I’ll choose Wagner here, but I’m still trying to get myself sold on him. I didn’t realize he was 220; thought he was more of a bean pole. At 6’9” 220, that’s Looney-size. Does anyone know if he’s been officially measured? He isn’t on the combine list.
From my quick google searching, looks like last official wingspan measurement is from 2017 where he was 6'5" with a 6'8" wingspan.
Then in the 2019 U18 Euro Championship he was official listed as 6'7" 200lbs.
If he's really 6'9" 220lbs with a ~7 foot wingspan now, would certainly be plenty of opportunity for Wagner to get minutes on the Warriors as the backup 4.
I mean if by some miracle this is how the draft goes, Warriors take Mobley and don't think twice about it. Realistically though, one of these guys will be available when they pick.
Not really sure how I feel about him overall but I was just thinking if we also took Garuba at #14, we could have a lineup of Poole, Wiggins, Wagner, Garuba, Wiseman. That would seem pretty good on both ends of the floor... two defensive-minded, switchable 6'9" 230lb guys that can pass ... Poole, Wiggins, Wagner on the perimeter.
I don't get the excitement about Wagner, will he be able to defend wings in the NBA with the lack of athleticism? He was great in college but I don't trust his jumper or athleticism
Defense is more about attitude and willingness to work hard, and measurables (e.g. height and more importantly length). Defense in college is often a crapshoot and as long as you think the guy is willing to work hard at it there's no reason he can't be plus defender with those measurables.
He can be a good defender even with being slow but are we trusting a dude who shot 32% and 35% from 3 in college? If he can't shoot he will be worthless
Hmm... seems like taking the official list of FT leaders isn't the best idea. I thought it'd help with weeding out players with insignificant number of attempts... but that ignores guys like Bazemore who shot 69% from the line and 40% from 3P since he didn't have enough FTA...
If he won't be available, I'll do backflips... if Kuminga is BPA we can probably find a trade down partner pretty easily and get some more trade assets.
Normally I'd agree except there are at least 6 players in this draft already ahead of him. Hed be a good candidate to move down in the draft for if we can't get Barnes though
Wagner seems to be a tailor made fit for the Warriors.
I was asked the other day what I thought of Wagner as a Michigan alum and the first comp that came to mind was Mike Dunleavy, Jr.
Interestingly, what stands out to me is watching Dunleavy play against Michigan in college — he was EVERYWHERE. He was great playing team defense, almost never made mistakes, and was a well-rounded player. My two big questions with him were similar to those with Wagner: 1) how will he handle the physicality of the NBA? and 2) is he assertive enough?
Obviously, saying that a draft prospect compares favorably to Dunleavy isn’t going to excite any Warriors fans … but he had a 15-year career and was clearly a top 10 prospect in that draft even in retrospect, and had a skill set that would fit pretty well with this current group. Wagner is the better on-ball (college) defender and stands to be a similar shooter over time… so yeah, I can talk myself into him being a solid pick at 7. But I also bring up Dunleavy to temper (my own) expectations— the similarity in watching the two in college is way too stark for me to ignore and, for that reason, I am sort of skeptical that he’ll be a Day 1 contributor in the way some people are thinking …
Nate the great sighting!!
Man, your keen insights have been sorely missed over the past year or so! And your thoughts on your fellow Wolverines are especially welcome. I can only go by the stats and the few clips I’ve seen, but the one statistical area where the otherwise apt Wagner/Dunleavy comp breaks down is FT shooting: Wagner shot 83% and 84% in his two college seasons —extremely impressive for a 18-19 year old — where Dunleavy shot in the high 60s all three years at Duke.
That should have been a red flag to us about his NBA shooting, which was ultimately I think the one of biggest reasons we let him go: after a decent start to his career (35-37-39% in his first three seasons), he dropped down to 29% and 31% in seasons four and five, and was shipped off in the middle of season 5.
He somehow discovered a ~40% three point stroke after leaving us (of course, because Warriors) but it took him 6-7 seasons to get there. The hope with Wagner is that the 84% college FT presages a more consistent and reliable three point stroke, even if his college 3fg number (34%) was not that impressive. I think there’s also some concern about the lowness of his release point, though it doesn’t look that bad to me in clips. And thoughts on his shooting potential from a regular observer?
Yeah, the FT% observation is really just something we missed with Dunleavy… and, again, I do think Wagner’s a MUCH better (college) on-ball defender.
My concern with his shooting is that it always looks like he’s straining when he’s shooting from deep off the catch/dribble — the video above sort of shows that when discussing areas of improvement with the “shooting consistency” point with a lot of those shots from deep just coming up short.
The bigger thing is it can feel sometimes like he’s blending into the mix of things so well that he just disappears for stretches, which goes to the assertiveness point in the video.
I dunno … even in typing everything out I’ve kinda talked myself into him now lol he clearly has a ton of assets, but I just won’t be getting overly excited.
It might also be a scheme and era issue. Kerr utilizes the Dunleavy skillset much more than other coaches. And most NBA teams made off ball cutting and passing virtually useless during that era. If your name didn’t start with an R you weren’t getting utilized. Reggie, Ray, Rip, etc.
There's just so much to love about Wagner.
Versatile defender with great court vision that knocks down 40% of three pointers?
And he's actually younger than many freshman?
Thankyou very much!
Doesn’t knock down 40% of his threes … yet? I see 34% last season, unless I’m reading wrong. But as noted above, the killer FT shooting is real cause for hope.
Very good rebounder, too: 8.3 boards for 40, or 1.5 more than Scottie Barnes averaged.
Not thrilled with either. Wagner ok at 14.
Wagner please. Good instincts, reads the play well and seems like the kind of player that would capitalize on the chaos generated by Steph.
Wagner, obviously. I like the IQ, passing, and confidence when driving to the basket. Don't like the low release point on his shot, and I think he'll get put on a leash trying to defend good ball handlers, at least at first. But I think he's got a higher floor than lots of guys outside the top 4. Value-wise, I'd prefer him in the 9-13 range if a trade down were possible, and there are a few others I'd get more excited about. But if he's the pick at 7, I'll just be happy that he's not Mitchell.
I’m hoping Nico lighting it up for Team Italia in the Olympic qualifiers will help quietly push them away from seriously considering Mitchell at #7. They’re similar players, only Nico is three years younger. And one of them basically precludes the other.
Mike Dunleavy Jr. (who I think has some sway in the ultimate decision) also recently made a comment about the dangers of limiting yourself to guys perceived to be “NBA ready.” Was very relieved to hear that. Todd Fuller, Adonal Foyle, Ike Diogu, Ekpe Udoh and others say hi…
Wagner. In addition to the defense, this stood out: “ In some systems, he could be a major threat facilitating from the elbow areas, running dribble handoffs with shooters or serve as the ball handler or screener in the pick-and-roll.“ Gotta love playmaking.
As for Jackson, explosive rim runner, we can get Chris’s for cheap, no? It’s not clear that Jackson will be better than Chris’s anytime soon, so hard pass.
I’ll choose Wagner here, but I’m still trying to get myself sold on him. I didn’t realize he was 220; thought he was more of a bean pole. At 6’9” 220, that’s Looney-size. Does anyone know if he’s been officially measured? He isn’t on the combine list.
From my quick google searching, looks like last official wingspan measurement is from 2017 where he was 6'5" with a 6'8" wingspan.
Then in the 2019 U18 Euro Championship he was official listed as 6'7" 200lbs.
If he's really 6'9" 220lbs with a ~7 foot wingspan now, would certainly be plenty of opportunity for Wagner to get minutes on the Warriors as the backup 4.
Wagner!!
Wagner. He's #4 on my big board.
Nice, I reluctantly put him at #6 above Barnes, what's the rest of your board look like?
1. Suggs.
2. Cunningham
3. Green
4. Wagner
5. Moody
6. Barnes
For the Warriors, these are my top picks.
And if all 6 of those guys are gone?
I mean if by some miracle this is how the draft goes, Warriors take Mobley and don't think twice about it. Realistically though, one of these guys will be available when they pick.
Nice. I've got
1. Cunningham
2. Suggs
3. Green
4. Mobley
5. Sengun
6. Wagner
7. Barnes
Other than the absence of Mobley, that's my top 7. Love it. Get Kuminga outta here.
Not in the same order, to be clear lol. Definitely got Cunningham #1.
Lol all good and understandable.
Haha, it's nice to see someone else irrationally excited about Suggs.
Was looking at slash lines and was surprised to see Suggs rebounded at a higher rate compared to Cade (7.4 vs 7.0 reb per 40).
I vote for Wagner
Not really sure how I feel about him overall but I was just thinking if we also took Garuba at #14, we could have a lineup of Poole, Wiggins, Wagner, Garuba, Wiseman. That would seem pretty good on both ends of the floor... two defensive-minded, switchable 6'9" 230lb guys that can pass ... Poole, Wiggins, Wagner on the perimeter.
I don't get the excitement about Wagner, will he be able to defend wings in the NBA with the lack of athleticism? He was great in college but I don't trust his jumper or athleticism
Defense is more about attitude and willingness to work hard, and measurables (e.g. height and more importantly length). Defense in college is often a crapshoot and as long as you think the guy is willing to work hard at it there's no reason he can't be plus defender with those measurables.
He can be a good defender even with being slow but are we trusting a dude who shot 32% and 35% from 3 in college? If he can't shoot he will be worthless
Well, Sleepy makes a compelling point about his FT% being high and consistent, which is apparently a better predictor.
Played with some data from this past regular season. I took the FT% leaders list and put them into two groups:
Group A: >= 80 FT% (61 players)
Group B: < 80 FT% (49 players)
Group A: Avg. 3P% = 37.4%, Mode 3P% = 39.1%
Group B: Avg. 3P% = 29.8%, Mode 3P% = 25.0%
I had a Group C for 70-80 FT% but it looked only slightly better than Group B.
Hmm... seems like taking the official list of FT leaders isn't the best idea. I thought it'd help with weeding out players with insignificant number of attempts... but that ignores guys like Bazemore who shot 69% from the line and 40% from 3P since he didn't have enough FTA...
Took the 3P% leaders list instead... it still shows better FT% -> better 3P% but the relationship isn't quite as strong.
https://ibb.co/1K3xp06
https://ibb.co/9yZPRL9
Are you sure you used the mode 3P% and not the median?
Yes, I used mode... kind of arbitrary I guess. Median could work too but I guess they're both kind of not intuitive for continuous variables.
I would ask how many people shooting over 80% from Ft arebad 3 point shooters compared to how many less then 80 are good shooters
Really good question. That was actually the first things I was wondering as well but was too lazy to check.
Out of Group A, 25 (out of 61) shot below 38%; 15 (out of 61) shot below 35%.
Group B: 33 (out of 49) shot below 35%.
Are these all NBA players? Rookies only?
I took the NBA FT% leaders list.
Which is bad news for Mitchell...
Excitement in general or you mean that everyone here is voting for Wagner?
No excitement in general, like possibly taking him at 7. Definitely taking Wagner over that bigman
Wagner
Since pretty much everyone here wants Wagner, I know he won't be available at #7 :p
If he’s not available, that increases the odds my Barnes is 👍🏼
If he won't be available, I'll do backflips... if Kuminga is BPA we can probably find a trade down partner pretty easily and get some more trade assets.
Normally I'd agree except there are at least 6 players in this draft already ahead of him. Hed be a good candidate to move down in the draft for if we can't get Barnes though
Mr Wagner in a walk
Wagner, duh