Dub Nation HQ Comments of Week, plus open thread
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Dub Nation HQ Comments of Week, plus open thread
Kuminga at FIBA, 538 projections, Wiggins, odd man out of the core?
Helpful hint: Every commenter’s name is a link that leads back to the original comment.
Warriors Dynasty Drafting: Jonathan Kuminga
JFK
Sleepy Freud (9 ♡):
Being “conservative” with the minutes of an 18-19 year-old may have nothing to do with how that player is handled going forward.
I personally found very little about last season “frustrating.” JK played 1185 minutes and was #4 on the team (tied with Klay) in points scored, and #1 among all lotto picks in scoring efficiency (a nice round .600 TS). In the playoffs he played 138 minutes, including a couple of somewhat high-lev situations; but as the stakes rose, in situations where his inexperience could have killed us, he mostly rode pine in favor of experienced guys like Otto and GP2 And … the Warriors won the whole damn thing.
Now Kuminga is a ripe old 19. (turning 20 in October). What are we supposed to be frustrated about, again?
Sleepy Freud (7 ♡):
Per minute, he scored at the highest efficiency *and* highest volume among the 14 lottery picks.
Second highest efficiency: Moses Moody.
Sleepy Freud (7 ♡):
I file these under “good problems to have.”
belilaugh (7 ♡):
I would have preferred Moody at #7 but obviously that was dumb since they got him at #14. I would have also preferred Wagner at #7 and I still feel pretty strongly about that. I still think both of those guys have more potential than Kuminga as of right now, am willing to reassess after this season.
But if Kuminga ends up a top 10 player in the class which I think is possible, it'd be hard to get too mad at the pick unless one of the guys drafted right behind him like Wagner, Mitchell, Williams, or Bouknight really ascend to superstardom. Warriors drafted Klay over Kawhi but no one really cares because Klay is really good.
Alas Phood Fight (6 ♡):
Can I add how irritating all the pundits who were talking Davion Mitchell for the Warriors at 7. Holy Cow. Such a reprehensible ill-advised take.
belilaugh (6 ♡):
For both Moody and Kuminga I am curious how much they can really add to their game in such a short offseason. I remember Draymond once explaining how he never got a chance to add to his games in those short offseasons that resulted from 5 straight Finals appearances because he was mostly focused on recovery from such a long season and prepping to be able to physically get through the following season which he expected to be another deep run. Then again Draymond wasn't 19 or 20 years old during those runs. Still, how much can you really add in like 2 months? I think it's possible that championship experience is invaluable for getting rookies to focus on the right things, but a detriment in terms of them actually being able to work on those things early in their career. But I don't really know, will be curious to see.
Eric Apricot (5 ♡):
hey you selectively edited my text! It said
> this year being a particularly neurotic and whiny year on Dub Nation **Twitter**
DNHQ comment section has been the most level-headed on Dub Nation Internet, relatively speaking
belilaugh (5 ♡):
Certainly I think one of the biggest question marks I have for him is whether he is willing to play a team game versus an individual one. He has the skillset to be Shawn Marion, but does he want that?
Hashemite Kingdom (5 ♡):
I haven't decided about Kuminga yet. He could either go down as an all-time great or "potential unrealized." The talent is there, and it was cool to see flashes of it last year. I think it all comes down to his work ethic. If he works hard, he could be huge.
I am very, very happy with Moses Moody. I'm hoping he and Poole will push Kuminga.
Alas Phood Fight (4 ♡):
I fell in love with Scottie Barnes early in the draft, when it actually seemed like we had a shot at him. And I had Josh Giddy right behind him. After them, I was about even on Wagner & Moody. The closer we got to the draft, the higher Scottie shot up the boards and rightfully so. I saw him as the heir to Draymond, a perfect fit. There goes OKC, and Presti was giddy for Giddy. At this point, I have Wagner and Mu-moe-moo-moo-Moody on my board, and it never occurred to me that JFK would be on the board. I hadn't watched a minute of Kuminga pre-draft because I didn't think we would even see him. So I had to scramble post-draft to get an idea of who he was.
Ahhh, I see the potential. I see the holes. But the G-League is the G League and I postponed any judgement until I saw him in the big leagues. And let's remind ourselves that his first year in the NBA should have been his first year in college.
DAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
If the Warriors ranked 26th in overall athleticism in the league (is that too high?), JFK single-handedly pushed them up to 15. I am having trouble coming up with comparisons to his combination of power & speed. Westbrook? Whoever it is, it is a one-handed list that he is on.
JFK is a walking time out. Kerr: "JK, we need a time out." JK: "Okay coach." Next play, drive and a foul, JK to the line, y'all get what we call a free-throw-time-out. If he can shoot 80% at the free throw line, he will average anywhere from 7-9 points a game on free throws alone. Even at 75%, he becomes another team's nightmare. And this is something the Warriors Desperately Seeking Susan needs.
The tools are there. He is surrounded by the best basketball minds in the business. He is immersed in the best bball culture since Duncan-Parker-Ginobili. The sky is the limit with this kid.
What we need to do as DubNation, is visualize what JK needs to do if he wants to be JFK (yes, you heard it here first, Jonathon "Freakin" Kuminga). JK will be a really really good NBA player. But if he wants to ascend into the level currently occupied by the Core, he has to let go of that which he loves most. The basketball.
We all know JK loves to break rims. It's his greatest love. When the ball is in his hands, he can turn into Smeagol (or Gollam), holding his basketball like the precious ring that controlled them all. He calls for it, he cradles it, he caresses it and calls it his "Precious." But if this guy can embrace the Warriors Way, he will become unstoppable. In the Warriors World, the player without the ball is more dangerous. If JK learns this, the Warriors will be unstoppable. The second the ball leaves his hands, en route to another player, is the second that the Red Sea parts and a hole to the rim is created.
The Warriors are the 7-Up of basketball. They are the Un-Cola. The Un-NBA. The Un-Basketball. "Give and ye shall receive" is the Word. Give up the ball and you will get it back!!!!!!!!!
Free throws. Open set 3s. And Give & Gos. I am not going to be worried about defense. That takes longer, we all know once a player has settled into a reliable offensive game his D can improve.
If JK can do this, if he can elevate his handle to JFK, then ho-be-Jesus, we are going to be a nightmare. Scottie Barnes and Giddy were picked before him, so if his only competition was Wagner, Moody, and Sengun, I think Bob had another par for the course awesome Bob Meyers draft.
belilaugh (4 ♡):
> One thing I've noticed is that he seems to play to the level of challenge.
That game against the Lakers where he was matched up against LeBron, I think in February, was really impressive in this regard.
Nom De Sab (4 ♡):
Something to keep in mind though...JK isn't the only player on the team whose development can benefit from more minutes. It's a tough situation all around.
Goldarn Staid Worrier (4 ♡):
Another good summary and utterly fair evaluation of JK.
I was delighted when we picked him (though I would have been happy with Wagner as well) and even more thrilled to have Moody fall to us at 14. And I’m perfectly satisfied with the progress of the rookies. My expectations were low both for their ability to contribute to Kerrball and the likelihood that they’d get anything other than garbage time on the court. So my expectations were far surpassed. And they were fun!! to watch. I bet this grade for Kuminga goes up steadily the next few years.
Open thread: GSW-MEM Game 4 rewatch
A close one
Sleepy Freud (12 ♡):
They’re pretty close, imo. Obviously Mitchell has the more decorated résumé, but I think Poole’s apprenticeship under Steph and Kerr for his entire young career will ultimately make him the better player.
I wouldn’t trade Poole for Mitchell, if anyone’s offering.
Nom De Sab (8 ♡):
Dr. Nirav Pandya, M.D.
@DrNiravPandya
·
4m
The Golden State Warriors play basketball this month. #DubNation 💪🏾
Captain Jack (7 ♡):
Didn't gut their core at all. Garland, Mitchell, Love and Mobley. Solid crew
Mr Teal (5 ♡):
Crap. Someone got banned. I didn't see what happened, but anecdotal evidence suggests they probably misspelled "you're" a few times and then called someone else an idiot for not understanding basketball.
Dilly (5 ♡):
With luck, neither of the Cavs' remaining bigs piss off Spida [like Gobert did] or they'll never see the ball from him again.
Asher B. (5 ♡):
Kendrick Perkins thinking a thing automatically reduces its likelihood for me; yet I do think Cleveland made a good move and has an intriguing roster. It might have cost them too many picks, we shall see, but for this year they look pretty OK.
Their backcourt was suspect and their frontcourt was crowded and they sort-of-sort-of-not addressed both problems. A backcourt of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell with Rubio coming off the bench ain't too shabby. A frontcourt of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley ain't too shabby. Caris LaVert in there somewhere, some other OK pieces .... they gonna win some games.
belilaugh (5 ♡):
He must mean blunt rolling paper
Sleepy Freud (5 ♡):
He’s speaking bluntly.
Night Night (4 ♡):
Has the league shifted to prioritize draft picks, over the hyper-inflated trade market?
Seems like Gobert ruined the entire trade market, and Mitchell too. The asking price for those two good (but not great, imo) players destroyed KD's trade request, and it'll do the same for other good/great players. If you have to give up 5 picks and 5 players for Gobert?? Good luck trying to trade for players of a similar or better caliber. The trade prices are way out of control. So, a team's best bet to get rid of a star player for a ton of draft picks, tank the team, rebuild through the draft capital gained in the trade, and with the draft picks to come after the team tanks. Kinda sounds like a league-wide version of 'the process'.
Plus, we've seen the superstar teams fail and fail and fail. Lakers, Nets, Clippers, etc. Teams are realizing (or remembering) that team chemistry and continuity is the special sauce. The Dubs, of course, are par exemplar. But this also puts increased emphasis on draft picks, rather than the trade market.
Yeah, drafting has always been very important, but this is perhaps a moment where trade market inflation makes it the only viable option.
Anyway, just some random thoughts amidst this Mitchell trade. Wonder who will pick up Bogdonovic, Clarkson, and Conley? Don't really care what happens to Whiteside.
Wiggins will be the odd man out - Alas Phood…
By popular demand, elevating this comment
Truckeeman (16 ♡):
That's a solid analysis, if a little too realistic for my taste.
Here's how I see it: Wiseman improves significantly on both ends, Kuminga watches a lot of film of Kawhi Leonard and starts to play like him. Moses Moody becomes a better 3-point shooting Iguodala. Baldwin adds some muscle and figures out how to play against great competition. Wiggins takes his "16 game" game into the regular season. Poole focuses on defense and becomes a shut-down player against shooting guards. Klay, Draymond and Steph play reduced minutes, although Klay has 80 points in a game, Draymond wins DPOY and Steph hits 500 3s in the season.
The League restructures the CBA so that there is no luxury tax for home-drafted and developed talent, so the Dubs' payroll drops significantly. Myers and Lacob keep everybody, and offer tickets (and pay-per-view) to team scrimmages of old guys versus young guys. That offsets what little luxury tax there is.
In thirty years, Warriors' fans marvel at the fact that they thought the Warriors were done after Steph, Klay and Draymond, only to find that the Wiseman, Poole, Kuminga, Moody and Baldwin were a more successful and entertaining squad.
fotd (9 ♡):
As Apricot suggests, one year at a time. At their ages, you can’t be sure the core stays the same. If any go down with a serious injury (lumbar discs are notoriously unstable in big physical players), the dynamic changes quickly. They will keep everyone to win one more and then reassess, IMO.
TwoRingTest (8 ♡):
I'm finding the whole "we've got to part with one or two of our core players because of money" thing too depressing to think about any more.
So, I've decided not to. If and when Wiggs is traded, I'll sign up for electroshock therapy, and hope for some resulting memory loss.
The Bratch (7 ♡):
Great points all around, though I still hate this entire conversation.
My heart wants Lacob to keep the team together as long as the total balance sheet on each season is at least $1 into the black, but my mind knows this isn't entirely--or even remotely--realistic. I'm so glad I'm not Bob Meyers. I truly don't know how he does it.
I do hope Abaddon is right and Wigs keeps defending and rebounding like a savage the way he did in the playoffs. And I hope the reports of Kuminga having a lax work ethic are overblown, and that Poole is spending the entire off-season becoming a lockdown defender. Because ultimately, I am all about getting more reasons to eat celebratory ice cream.
DFiB (6 ♡):
I have to think they'll be making these decisions in the coming offseason with the long term in mind. There's new CBA, new TV deal, new contracts for everybody except Steph & PBJ over the next 3 years, youngsters growing in their role, oldsters fading bit by bit... Lacob has said he'd pay to keep a champion together, whatever that means... Bob has said $400M is kind of a limit, but they've stayed below $350M thus far.
There's way too many moving parts to make sense of what's going to happen next offseason, so just enjoy this season and hope the team stays cohesive and doesn't fracture from competing interests...
Alas Phood Fight (5 ♡):
Yeah, Poole has a little Andre in him. But what I see is Poole talking on the court. He is not afraid to mix it up with anyone and he punked Marcus Smart in the Finals. He has even clapped back at Draymond. That's not easy. I've heard him mic'ed up in scrimmages, and he is very vocal, both with game talk and cheer-leading his teammates. And that's why I think he has a little Dray. Once Curry and Dray are gone, how are they to be replaced? Those are big shoes to fill. My preference for Poole over Wiggs comes down to this. His playing style (and work ethic) mimics Curry enough such that the Warriors could continue to play their off-ball motion offense. Poole can't replicate Draymond's defense, but he can carry the torch as the heart of the team because of his insane self-confidence and his fiery passion for competition and winning. Poole wants blood on his dagger at the end of the game. It might not be obvious. But watch him closely during games and you will see him F with other players and try to get under their skin. And every Championship team needs that guy. And I don't think most people see that in him yet, since Dray gets the lion share of Antagonist at Large.
Loonhands (5 ♡):
Defense wins chips. Been thinking about how defense is the biggest question mark on the roster for next year. I thinks this is big for Wiggs.
Over the summer, we lost GP2, OPJ, Bjeli, JTA, possibly Iggy. A year older for Dray, so bearing less of the physical load each night, but hopefully can turn up in playoffs. Klay will hopefully step up, he looked close to full form in the playoffs, but it seems unlikely he should take the hardest, most physical wing assignments most nights.
Of the new guys, Donte seems maybe a slight plus on D, but no GP2. JMG seems a slight negative on D, even before comparing to OPJ, Bjeli, and JTA's surprising toughness. PBJ and Rollins are unknowns in NBA defense, and end of bench.
In light of that, Wiggins' defense looks a lot harder to lose. If Klay steps up to prior D levels and toughness, or Kuminga, Moody, Poole, or Wiseman take unlikely huge steps forward on D, only then can I imagine Myers lets Wiggs walk.
Seems more likely to me we get enough shooting from an aging Steph & Klay plus more diverse scoring from our new guys, and we let Poole's rising price tag walk. Few better ways to keep our D at champ level than keep the ultra-switchable, ironman Wiggs. I'm not just saying this because he's my mom's favorite Warrior, but it's a factor.
Looking forward to a certain beaming smile after he shuts down Ja, Doncic, and Middleton to win our next chip.
Anybody have ideas for how our defense will rise this year to last year's "historic greatness"? Or, for those who think Poole is likely over Wiggs, any ideas for likely free agents/trades who could replace Wiggs on D and at least patch up the void he'd leave on offense?
Jonathan Kuminga at the FIBA World Cup…
for his home team Democratic Republic of Congo
Sleepy Freud (11 ♡):
18 straight series, and most of ‘em not that close:
4-0 over NOP
4-2 over MEM
4-1 over HOU
—
4-1 over HOU
4-1 over POR
4-3 over OKC
—
4-0 over POR
4-0 over UTA
4-0 over SA
—
4-1 over SA
4-1 over NOP
4-3 over HOU
—
4-2 over LAC
4-2 over HOU
4-0 over POR
—
4-1 over DEN
4-2 over MEM
4-1 over DAL
—
Totals:
5 sweeps
7 gentleman’s sweeps
4 six-gamers
2 seven-gamers
Bel (10 ♡):
Honestly, I prefer for the Warriors to be the underdogs.
Goofus (8 ♡):
I disagree that we’re relying on the youngsters any more than going into last season.
Take OPJ, GP2 and Bjelly off the opening day roster and replace them with JMG, DDV and Klay Thompson and that’s an upgrade.
Moody and Kuminga essentially just have to replace Lee and and JTA as role players, which they’d already done by the end of last season.
Wiseman is pretty much gravy.
It’d be great if the kids blossom into bigger roles, but it doesn’t seem essential.
belilaugh (7 ♡):
Working on the left hand
Chasing Rings... (7 ♡):
#PettyReceipts!
crusty quips (7 ♡):
Good, honestly. This team always plays the best when they feel like they are being disrespected or doubted. They are heirs to Jordan's legacy in that way, led by Steph who is a Jordan-level psychopath as far as his competitive spirit. Bring on all of the experts that say the Clips will win the West; not like Steph and Dray and Klay will take any of that personally, right?
Being (7 ♡):
Woohoo... I got my own thread again. *Does the Macarena*
Dilip Goswami (6 ♡):
If you predict a decline every year, eventually you will be right. Doesn’t mean you are any good at forecasting the future!
mDuo13 (6 ♡):
And he deserves it! That article does a great job of showcasing why Poole is fantastic:
- Excellent performance in the playoffs. Statistically as well or better than he did in the regular season!
- Stepped up in the regular season when Steph was injured. [Not mentioned, but important subtext: Most players perform a lot *worse* when not sharing the court with Steph.]
- Incredible improvement from rookie year through last season. It's nearly impossible that he'll make such big leaps again, but his proven work ethic is still a great sign for his ability to stay relevant in the future, especially as he commands more attention from rivals.
- High efficiency offense including a real passing game, and better defense than peers who are getting paid big bucks.
- [Not in the article, but relevant: High entertainment value with goofy faces and dramatic reactions to pain.]
Abaddon (6 ♡):
I've never really felt the Clippers have ever managed to be as good as the sum of their parts, but on paper, it's a championship roster.
Don't forget last year the consensus Finals picks pre-season were Lakers and Nets....
Goofus (6 ♡):
I wouldn’t expect one of the poorest, most war-torn countries in the world to have a top flight team?
Abaddon (5 ♡):
Bemused (5 ♡):
OT, FiveThirtyEight's 2022-23 NBA Player Projections are out. Steph is projected to decline from 12.0 last year (just below MVP Candidate level) to 9.7. I share the general disdain for 538's basketball predictions, and look forward to Steph crushing the over.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/stephen-curry/
Dilip Goswami (5 ♡):
I'll make a good faith effort to explain then. When you are extrapolating from limited data predicting based on statistical averages will always tend you to discount outliers. There are approaches that deal with it better - like support vector machines - but clearly 538 does not do that. So they will predict declines because they are matching data that is not predictive. Hence the poor forecasting ability - separate from the fact that data is so sparse and random in this field that the ability to forecast will be hampered regardless.
Abaddon (4 ♡):
Worth noting their confidence interval ranges from ~5 to ~14. I don't know if that's normal but that's a very wide range and it is predicated on Steph's age and the usual decline of an NBA player at his age. Steph is a MASSIVE outlier in that regard - arguably more-so than any player in NBA history other than LeBron - so it's not necessarily surprising to see the model shading a little lower than we would expect. And I'm gonna be honest... if you told me he'd have seasons like the last two five and six years after Unanimous, I'd have been highly skeptical. It's pretty unprecedented.
For comparison, LeBron, coming off an abbreviated but pretty spectacular season, is projected at 6.9 with a confidence interval ranging from ~2 to ~13. KD is projected to also be a 6.9 with an interval from ~4.5 to ~10.
Projections are insanely hard. Their model has flaws even categorizing the quality of a season (no shame in that, that is also very hard), projecting an upcoming season is an exercise in futility. Younger players with an established track record (a la Jokic) entering their physical prime are a much better bet historically to maintain that kind of production than a 34 year old player.
All of that said... with reasonable health (knock on wood) I too look forward to Steph once again showing the 538 model that it's missing the mark again.
Dub Nation HQ Comments of Week, plus open…
Helpful hint: Every commenter’s name is a link that leads back to the original comment.
Eric Apricot (6 ♡):
[On getting comment picture embeds] They have not said anything specific about it. It’s easy to guess the reason:
(1) Substack focuses completely on the model that there is A Great Author that readers consume (and pay). They don’t get the whole “build a community” that we’re doing here.
(2) it’s too easy for commenters to post offensive/illegal images.
(3) Even without (2), it’s too easy for commenters to post distracting / ugly / annoying images.
I enjoyed most of the comment images at GSOM, but speaking as one person, it turns out I don’t miss them too much here.
Five Alarm Freddy (5 ♡):
I have never been a link before. I am so honored.
TheseGuysAreF’ingGIANTS! (5 ♡):
I’m on team develop the young guys too. Like Poole over the last two years. He may have actually gotten worse over the course of his first year. But then he put the work in in the gym, did the full bubble of G-league and dominated, continued to put in the work, and then returned as a difference maker that year, in the off-season and, ever since. Let’s develop all the young guys like that (minus that first lost year.)
alicat (4 ♡):
Me too! I feel...verklempt!
Being (3 ♡):
The PBJ hype train is starting already?
Trysta Krick, 660AM talk show host hyping up PBJ. Mostly she quotes from the Dubs Talk Live interview that posted about a week ago (
). She quotes his love of watching film and talks about how unusual that is for college players. She quotes him saying how he watches guys like OPJ and MPJ to see what kind of role player he can be in the pros.
Dub Nation HQ Comments of Week, plus open thread
This has some nice x's and o's for all our E1P withdrawals...
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2022/9/3/23335432/warriors-eurobasket-steph-curry-nikola-jokic-giannis-antetokounmpo-luka-doncic-film-breakdown
I feel like we have hit the peak (or should I say valley?) off season lull.
Days till preseason tracker: 25