Dub Nation HQ Draft Tourney Rd 2: #2 Franz Wagner vs #7 Moses Moody
Versatile defender/playmaker vs long three-and-D man
The whole tournament is at 2021 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament.
Your mission is to decide which of these two you would prefer the Warriors draft at #7 this year. I’ll bring the scouting reports, you bring the vote.
And if you don’t want either one at #7? Yeah yeah I get it. You can still help us choose between them or just let the rest of us pick.
How The Candidates Got Here
Dub Nation Speaks
Mycroft (6 ♡):
As an Arkansas fan who watched Moody in pretty much every game he played, I have one major concern - his "secondary motor." Virtually all the highlights you are going to see are off primary offensive sets. That's because, except for the three 28 point games at the end of the season in which it was really notable that some significant effort had been made by the coaches to laser-focus on the issue, he had a maddeningly predictable tendency to drift toward the half-court corners after the primary set broke down instead of looking to relocate. I suspect this is also partially why you also don't see a lot of at-the-rim finishes.
Certainly this is something that can be corrected, but Eric Musselman is pretty good at motivating players to move, and I have a hard time visualizing him not being all over Moody about it in practice. Despite that, Moody really did only for those three games (and frankly, dominated them) and then reverted almost completely to prior form in the NCAA tournament. I don't see this as a knock on his character or anything like that - I see it more as a product of having played on a full NBA-talented roster at IMG where he deferred to someone (Cade Cunningham) running solo offense after breakdowns - and he certainly works hard enough to be able to fix it. But it is a tendency he's going to have to correct to be effective, and based on last year, its probably going to take more than another year to fix.
The Sword Of The Morning (6 ♡):
Another crazy thing about Moses Moody (which is a crucial component of his efficiency): he had a .482 FTr in college. FTr of other notable guys in college:
- Zion: .467
- Trae: .443
- Harden: .600(!)
- Steph: .293 (.365 his junior year)
I cannot think of a single 3 and D guy who gets to the FT line this much.
CNB (5 ♡):
MOODYMOODYMOODY...MOOOOO-DY! (*higher pitch* mooo-dy!)
Not just for this particular matchup, but for the whole thing. Love the length, love the way he shoots on the way up, love how smooth he plays, love his youth. He might be the most well-rounded option at 7, and for that even to be possible at 18 years old is pretty incredible. I don't care if his athleticism doesn't jump out, I think he has the talent to be more than just a 3 and D guy, and even if that's all he is, that's not bad. But to me, to say that an 18 year-old has a low ceiling is insane, because you can't predict how they'll continue to learn the game beyond how high they can jump. Then there's this:
“He’s going to be different from a lot of rookies because he has such a deep understanding of the game. He comes in early, watches a lot of film, and takes care of his body. He’d be an asset for any NBA team and great for the Warriors because of his feel for the game and his ability to stretch the floor without dominating the ball.”-Razorbacks coach Eric Musselman by phone to NBC Sports Bay Area
It would be great to get someone that mature, too, and I think he'd fit great with Poole/Wiseman/whoever the 2nd team PG ends up being (if Nico has really taken a step or two forward, awesome). I don't want anyone who's not going to fit well with Poole, and I worry about guys like Bouknight in that capacity.
As for Kispert, I wouldn't mind him, but I'd prefer Duarte for the defense. Moody + Duarte/Garuba/Wagner(/Sengun/Cooper) would be a fun draft.
Nate P (2 ♡):
I was asked the other day what I thought of Wagner as a Michigan alum and the first comp that came to mind was Mike Dunleavy, Jr.
Interestingly, what stands out to me is watching Dunleavy play against Michigan in college — he was EVERYWHERE. He was great playing team defense, almost never made mistakes, and was a well-rounded player. My two big questions with him were similar to those with Wagner: 1) how will he handle the physicality of the NBA? and 2) is he assertive enough?
Obviously, saying that a draft prospect compares favorably to Dunleavy isn’t going to excite any Warriors fans … but he had a 15-year career and was clearly a top 10 prospect in that draft even in retrospect, and had a skill set that would fit pretty well with this current group. Wagner is the better on-ball (college) defender and stands to be a similar shooter over time… so yeah, I can talk myself into him being a solid pick at 7. But I also bring up Dunleavy to temper (my own) expectations— the similarity in watching the two in college is way too stark for me to ignore and, for that reason, I am sort of skeptical that he’ll be a Day 1 contributor in the way some people are thinking …
Sleepy Freud (5 ♡):
.833 and .835 from the stripe his two years in college, which normally correlates to sustainable 3FG% in the pros better than college 3FG%. He’s also young for his class (still just 19), and a by all accounts a super high character guy who (like his fellow Wolverine JP) will work his ass off the get better in all facets. He has already apparently built up his body a lot over the last year. 6’-9”, excellent rebounder, solid passer and shooter, and great, versatile wing defender? I’m sold.
vignette17 (4 ♡):
Franz Wagner top comp statistically is Jordan Poole, except he's 6'9 and a defense first guy? Sounds like a perfect fit to me.
Profile from Sports-Reference.com
Per 40. Jordan Poole, Tyler Herro, Brandon Boston Jr., Tyler Lydon, D.J. Wilson, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Donovan Mitchell, Gary Trent Jr., Zhaire Smith
Advanced. Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole, Chuma Okeke, Marcus Bagley, Omari Spellman, Zhaire Smith, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, D.J. Wilson, Devin Vassell.
NBA Draft Room Comp: Tyler Honeycutt, Mike Dunleavy Jr. Damn that is cold-blooded.
Jon Chepkevich: Statistical best comparisons are
Otto Porter Jr.
There is quite the array of rangy, multi-faceted, defensively-oriented wings here. This mold of player is highly sought after in the modern NBA, because it unlocks invaluable rotational/lineup flexibility. These guys can guard multiple positions, stay on the court in high-leverage moments, and ultimately catalyze winning basketball.
Kyle Boone, CBS Sports: Wagner can be an instant impact addition at that position, as he thrived for Michigan as a defensive specialist who can knock down 3s and provide support for the team's top dogs.
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: Wagner has skyrocketed up draft boards in 2021. Why? His fit in the modern NBA is about as pristine as it gets. He’s a good shooter from distance with clean mechanics and strong percentages, having hit 39 percent from 3 this year. He’s also a smart cutter who really knows how to get free from his opponent and an overall good mover without the ball. And on defense, he’s absolutely terrific. His exclusion from the Big Ten’s All-Defense team was baffling, as he has absolutely tremendous off-ball instincts that allow him to make an impact rotationally all over the court. He uses his length and anticipation of what’s going to happen exceptionally well. And it’s not a situation where the stats don’t tell the story, either, as he averages over a steal and a block per game. The idea here is something similar to what Robert Covington provides.
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: Wagner is an interesting 3-and-D prospect with real size at 6-9. His movement is terrific, with great lateral quickness. He can guard a variety of perimeter players on the ball, but his off-ball instincts are absolutely spectacular. He knows exactly where to be positionally, and his reactivity to get deflections is outstanding. The big question revolves around his shot, which comes and goes far too often. Sometimes, he looks like a legit 40 percent 3-point shooter in the future. Other times, he looks like a 30 percent guy and totally non-confident in the jumper mechanics. Whichever one he is will determine his career. If he becomes that high-level shooter, he’ll be a very high-level role player. If he doesn’t, he’s more in the vein of his brother, Moritz, as an end-of-the-rotation guy.
What they said: “They play man and then they’ll sneak in some 2-3 zone, and Wagner is great in both,” one Big Ten assistant said. “They play him in the corner of that zone, and you always have to account for him on the back side. It’s really tough to beat him cross-corner because he’s so solid with his technique closing out to shooters. And his length makes it tough to beat him off the dribble because he can move his feet. Then in their man-to-man, it’s the same deal. They use him on both scoring guards and on wings. And he doesn’t really get beat against those guys either. Part of why they’re so good on defense is that they give you different looks in terms of matchups and scheme.”
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer: SHADES OF Lamar Odom, Danilo Gallinari, Xavier Tillman
Impactful as a versatile defender and an offensive weapon who can be utilized in a wide range of roles.
Feel for the Game
Good spot-up 3-point shooter who can drain shots off one or two dribbles.
Unselfish playmaker who has great court vision for his size and the ability to deliver accurate passes straight off the dribble.
Rarely turns the ball over.
In some systems, he could be a major threat facilitating from the elbow areas, running dribble handoffs with shooters or serve as the ball handler or screener in the pick-and-roll.
Coordinated and decisive scorer who attacks with a plan the moment he receives a pass.
Glue-guy skills on offense: keeps the ball moving, relocates, screens, and has innate timing on his cuts.
Does an excellent job of sealing off smaller defenders on the post, which could be of great value against switching defenses.
Has a computer brain on defense. Reads plays instantly and disrupts actions by beating opponents to their spots. He will make a significant impact as an off-ball defender throughout his career.
Reliable on-ball defender who’s stout against players his size, with the lateral quickness to switch screens onto some smaller players. Agility improved dramatically after his freshman season and could be enhanced further in an NBA strength and conditioning program.
Brother of NBA player Moe Wagner.
Lacks shake-and-bake moves scoring off the dribble, which likely limits upside as a go-to option. Also reluctant to drive or finish with his left.
Improving his off-hand would help his finishing at the rim, though he does compensate some with his swooping runners in the lane.
Not an above-the-rim athlete.
Hollinger, The Athletic: The younger brother of Orlando center Moritz Wagner, Franz is a very different kind of player: He’s a huge wing with unusually nimble feet for his size, capable of checking guards on the perimeter and busting out in passing lanes for steals. Wagner stands 6-foot-9 but had one of the better steal rates in this draft class; he’s the classic switchable defender teams covet.
Offensively, he projects more as a role player than a star. Wagner can shoot but has a low release point on his shot and hasn’t shown the footwork or off-the-dribble sizzle to be a high-frequency bomber. He’s good in transition and can attack in straight lines in the half court, where his size and stride length give him an advantage even on basic dribble moves. He’s also a good passer with a strong feel for the game, and he rarely screws up, resulting in a better than 2:1 assist-to-turnover rate.
The other thing Wagner has going for him is his age. Although listed as a sophomore, he is actually younger than several of the freshman in this draft class, including Barnes, Mobley and Suggs. He doesn’t scream outrageous upside, but the youth, production and positional scarcity all point to Wagner as an underrated player in this draft.
Profile from Sports-Reference.com
Per 40. Malik Beasley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cameron Thomas, Josh Okogie, Bradley Beal, Terrence Shannon Jr., Bryant Stith, Harold Miner, Andrew Wiggins
Advanced. James Young, Kevon Looney, Aaron Gordon, Jerami Grant, Keldon Johnson, Kevin Knox, Malik Beasley, Kelly Oubre, Trey Lyles
Jon Chepkevich: Statistical best comparisons are
NBA Draft Room Comp: Allan Houston
Kyle Boone, CBS Sports: With Stephen Curry still playing at an MVP level and Klay Thompson set to return next season, the Warriors would do well to add a high-level role player who can maximize this roster. Moody fits the mold. He's a 3-and-D talent who shot 35.8% from 3-point range on high volume (162 attempts) and who would give the Warriors' current backcourt a real boost with his shooting and ability to make an impact off the ball.
Jeremy Woo, SI. While a bad run in the NCAA tournament shouldn’t impact Moody unfairly, it did bring to light some of the primary concerns scouts have held surrounding his athletic toolbox and overall readiness for the NBA. Granted, he’s 18, so some of this is to be expected, but Moody’s efficiency can vary wildly from game to game as a player who’s heavily reliant on shooting jumpers to be effective. He has a good frame and looks the part, but he lacks the explosiveness and struggles to finish regularly in traffic. There’s appealing upside here and Moody had a solid freshman year on the whole. But his range looks more likely to be late-lottery and onward than top 10 at this point.
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: The excitement surrounding Moody has dampened a bit following an inefficient NCAA Tournament, but I think some people are overthinking it. Moody is a terrific 3-and-D wing option with real size at 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan. He is switchable on defense, with really good feet and a tough mindset. Offensively, he hits shots with a smooth stroke off the catch. He took a ton of contested shots this season as Arkansas’ go-to guy, which led to some of his inefficiencies. But he also showcased some difficult shotmaking ability, too, off the move. The big things to work on here are his passing ability and finishing — and he’s not a wild athlete by any stretch. But it’s tough to find teenagers who are this good at shooting and defending with a platform to improve his other aspects as well.
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer: SHADES OF Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Morris Peterson
Safe bet to be a productive player for years. His ceiling, however, is unknown.
Excellent physical dimensions. Uses his strong frame and long arms to alter shots as a help defender near the rim or harass opponents man-to-man on the perimeter.
Good stationary shooter, but needs to speed up his release on 3s off screens and handoffs.
Unselfish player who excelled in an off-ball role. Does a good job of reading the floor off the dribble to make simple passes using either hand. Has intriguing potential as a screener who can thrive on the short roll.
Capable of pulling up from midrange after one or two dribbles.
Anticipatory rebounder with a nose for the ball, especially on offense.
Versatile on-ball defender who invites contact from larger players and has the agility to contain smaller, quicker perimeter scorers.
Intelligent off-ball defender who always seems to be in the right position.
Struggled to generate open shots against better defenders. Doesn’t project as a primary scorer unless his handle dramatically improves, and lacks the fluidity of players who develop that skill.
Lacks a floater.
Draws a lot of fouls but doesn’t finish well inside. A below-the-rim finisher. Needs to add more touch on finishes.
Lives in the midrange off the dribble. Needs to extend his range to 3 to hit more one-dribble side-step shots like high-level role players can.
Hollinger, The Athletic: Watching Moody’s tape, the two things that immediately strike you are that 1) he has a really good chance of carving out a career as a plus 3-and-D guy, and 2) he has fairly little chance of popping as anything more than that.
Moody has good size and length at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan and a smooth outside shot. His 3-point rate wasn’t off the charts, however, as he didn’t show the kind of ability to run off screens and fire on the move that you’d want to see from a high-level gunner. He also rarely gets to the basket and doesn’t wow you with athleticism.
Where he did show well is on the defensive end. While he wasn’t disruptive off the ball, he gets in a stance, slides his feet and uses his length to distract shooters. He’s also young even for a freshman, and has some instincts as a scorer, so there’s a chance some untapped upside remains.
He shapes up as a high-floor, low-ceiling type in spite of his youth, one who makes for a good pick around this point in the draft.
Dub Nation Speaks
belilaugh on Jun 23:
A couple random Moody facts:
NBA combine was today and the official measurements were taken. Moody has a +8.5 wingspan compared to his height without shoes, truly has freakish arms. Below is his placement among other guys with freak wingspans (holy shit THT) although it should be noted that this had assumed he was +8.25 and not +8.5. Kelly Oubre also has a +8.5, and no matter what you think of him everyone agrees his arms are absurdly long and help him have defensive versatility.
Also at today's combine his hand length measured 9 inches and his hand width measured 10 inches, both tops among all players in the combine 6'6 or shorter (also had the highest standing reach of that pool). The guy has big hands.
Also, people call Moody a "3 and D" guy and low upside, but how many guys have this polished of a footwork game at age 18 in college? Was Klay doing this back then (perhaps he was, I didn't watch him in his freshman season at Washington State)?
Moody averaged 6 free throws a game as a freshman, that's not common for "3 and D" guys. Klay took 1 a game as a freshman (upped it in future seasons), Middleton around 2, Danny Green never got to the line too much, etc. I think Moody would be a pure 3 and D guy next season, but I think he has serious secondary scoring option potential down the line once as he works on some of his weaknesses (like finishing, shout out Klay).
Some of these 3 and D guys like Mikal Bridges are pretty stationary (although Bridges is obviously way more athletic), whereas Moody's film shows a guy who has high movement shooting potential imo.
Moody averaged 7 rebounds per 40 minutes, those arms of his help him get to a lot of loose balls. You can also find multiple incidents of him diving on the floor for them, he's a competitor.
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