DNHQ Draft Tourney Group A: Hunter Sallis, Dillon Jones, Jaedon LeDee, Anton Watson; plus open thread

You learn, you vote

Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.

Our Draft Tournament

Yes, we are having our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns.

The draft will happen on Jun 26-27 2024 and for the first time, it will be a two-day affair. The first round will be Day 1, the second round will be Day 2. This makes the days very uneven, since there are 5 minutes per 1st round pick and 2 minutes per second round pick, but whatever. There’s also the unknown of how many of us draft maniacs will actually watch Day 2.

If the Warriors end up trading the pick, I’ll end the draft tournament early. If the Warriors somehow trade up, I’ll somehow re-fashion the Tourney.

Don’t be a party pooper and say the Warriors should trade the pick.

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Hunter Sallis

• Guard, 6-5, 175lb

• Basketball Reference

• Bart Torvik’s Advanced Stats

• BPM #125

• PRPG #35

• SI 5-16 #43

• The Ringer 5-9 #42

• TheAthletic 4-19 #28

• Wasserman 4-23 #53

• Yahoo 4-9 #37

Why does BPM love him?

• His True Shooting and Offensive Rating are above average, putting his PRPG statistic quite high.

• BPM is warm but not scorching towards Sallis. He doesn’t foul much, nor commit turnovers. He shoots well (78.3% FT, 40.5% 3P).

Why isn’t he in the first round?

• He’s a third-year player who just transferred to Wake Forest after two blah years at Gonzaga.

Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps

This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.

• Jeremy Lamb 2012

• Jerome Robinson 2018

• Erick Green 2013

• Terrico White 2010

• Jordan McRae 2013

• C.J. Wilcox 2013

• Allen Crabbe 2013

Sorry, I just could not massage my program into giving exciting statistical comps for him, despite positive draft scouting reports.

Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer

SHADES OF

Mitch Richmond, Jalen Williams

• Hustle

• Float Game

• Pull-up Threat

• On-Ball Defense

PLUSES

• Slippery ball handler who is quick but also knows how to deceive opponents with head and ball fakes. He can decelerate, stop on a dime for pull-ups in the paint, or use half spins to get to the rim. He always looks like he’s in control.

• Gorgeous paint scorer with soft touch from any angle off either foot. He can dunk when given space to elevate but primarily uses his finesse to score around the rim. Even when facing lengthy defenders, he’s shown the ability to hang in the air and absorb contact to still score.

• Possesses go-to scoring potential and the ability to drain dribble jumpers from anywhere on the floor. His feel, body control, and touch are all elite.

• Selfless passer who makes quick decisions with the ball. Coming off handoffs, he’ll read the floor and then put velocity on the ball to a roller. He loves to throw lobs. He’s also comfortable throwing crosscourt bull’s-eye passes. You can’t help but wonder whether he could become a primary playmaker running a large number of pick-and-rolls per game.

• He’s active off the ball, with the awareness to fill space in transition, cut to the basket in the half-court, and relocate for open 3s.

• Smooth shooter off the catch who’s capable of launching with a hand in his face or off an errant pass. He can do it from NBA range, too.

• Super active on-ball defender who shows good footwork, fighting around screens and staying in front of opponents. His strong hand-eye coordination allows him to consistently swipe at balls and contest shots.

• Comes from a basketball family. His mom played college basketball at San Diego State. He’s also James Harden’s second cousin.

MINUSES

• Lacks experience shooting 3s off screens and handoffs. If he doesn’t become a primary ball handler, he needs to develop these skills to be effective in the half-court. This may require him to speed up his jumper, as he tends to have a slow release off the catch.

• How real is his jumper? He made only 25 percent of his 3s over his first two seasons at Gonzaga before exploding as a junior with Wake Forest. In high school, he made 35 percent of his 3s and 76 percent of his free throws. So perhaps his real level is somewhere in the middle.

• Needs to get stronger to improve his defensive floor. As it is, he’ll get overpowered by some of the heavier elite athletes in the league.

Wasserman, NBA.com

Previous mock draft spot: No. 48

Team: Wake Forest

Position: SG

Size: 6-foot-5, 185 lbs

Age: 21, Junior

Nationality: American

Pro comparison: Malaki Branham

A breakout season with Wake Forest reignited interest around Hunter Sallis’ three-level scoring. His team couldn’t survive Georgia in the NIT with Sallis missing the game with an ankle injury. He’ll presumably now start the predraft process after averaging an efficient 18.0 points on 40.5% shooting from 3-point range. Sallis is viewed more safely as a second-rounder due to limited playmaking for a 185-pound guard. But he flashed enough creation, shotmaking and athleticism to sell scouts on his scoring, and he’ll likely be advised to try to improve his stock further during NBA combine scrimmages.

Kyle Boone, CBS

(I’ve found his opinions to be out of step from both NBA insiders and analytics-heavy writers).

Hunter Sallis | SG | Wake Forest: Sallis curiously ducked out of participating in the scrimmages at the combine after doing just OK in the shooting drills. He's down in a range of the draft where he may or may not be in line to earn a guaranteed contract in the early to middle of the second round. Returning to school where he could likely cash in big as a potential All-American might be best, and another stellar year could further boost his stock to a place closer to the first round.

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Dillon Jones

• Forward, 6-6, 235lb

• Basketball Reference

• Bart Torvik’s Advanced Stats

• BPM #69

• PRPG #24

• SI 5-16 #35

• The Ringer 5-9 #58

• TheAthletic 4-19 #67

• Wasserman 4-23 #34

• Yahoo 4-9 #28

• Worked out for the Warriors on May 9

Why does BPM love him?

• Sky-high Assist Rate and Defensive Rebounding Rate, lots of Steals, 84.5% FT% lead to an above-average TS% on heavy usage.

Why isn’t he in the first round?

• He’s a four-year player who plays in a minor NCAA conference.

Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps

This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.

• Evan Turner 2010

• Ayo Dosunmu 2021

• Draymond Green 2012

Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer

SHADES OF

Grant Williams Crossed With Julius Randle

• Clutch Gene

• Tank

• Float Game

• Rebounding

PLUSES

• At 6-foot-6 and over 230 pounds, Jones doesn’t look like a typical primary shot creator, but he’s shifty and has a tight handle and good passing vision. He’s decisive off the bounce, finding cutters and spot-up shooters with speedy bull’s-eye passes.

• Creative ball handler who uses his body to his advantage. He primarily scores at the rim and is a relentless downhill attacker who blends power and finesse to finish through contact with a soft touch. He also likes to lean into defenders to create space for effortless midrange pull-ups, and he possesses the touch and confidence to make them even when they’re heavily contested.

• Overpowers smaller players on post-ups. He could be a mismatch killer at the next level, particularly in on-ball screening actions since he can short roll and score, make plays, or go into a post-up.

• There are encouraging signs that he’ll be able to figure it out as a spot-up shooter. He is an 80-plus percent shooter from the line in his college career and has a feathery-soft touch from floater range.

• Excellent rebounder with a nose for the ball. With his handling ability, he can turn defensive boards into instant offense. He makes a similar defensive impact in the passing lanes, looking for deflections and steals.

MINUSES

• Sluggish on-ball defender who needs to improve his lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker guards and wings.

• Below-the-rim athlete who rarely dunks or blocks shots at the rim, which hurts his chances of operating as a small-ball center.

• Looks uncomfortable as a shooter from deeper ranges, as if he’s not generating enough power from his lower body and instead has to hoist the ball with his arms. Changes to his shot mechanics, and possibly losing weight, will be necessary to help him extend his range.

Wasserman, NBA.com

Previous mock draft spot: No. 34

• Team: Weber State

• Position: SF

• Size: 6-foot-6, 235 lbs

• Age/Year: 22, Junior

• Nationality: American

• Pro comparison: Tosan Evbuomwan

The only NCAA player on record to average at least 20 points, nine rebounds, five assists and a 3-pointer, Dillon Jones has scouts divided on his historic production and unusual fit/position for the NBA. Teams are asking whether he’ll be a useful creator on the ball and if he offers any value playing off it.

There figures to be one team willing to take a chance earlier than others. At 6’6″, 235 pounds, his ball-handling, live-dribble passing, finishing, improving touch and capable shot ultimately create tempting versatility.

(May 21 Update)

• May 12 Mock Draft Spot: No. 34

• School/Team: Weber State

• Position: SF

• Age/Year: 22, Junior

• Size: 6'5", 237 lbs

• Nationality: American

• Pro comparison: David Roddy

Ball-dominant at Weber State, Dillon Jones had trouble standing out in a different role at the NBA combine. On the bright side, he improved his athletic-test results across the board since last year, specifically his foot-speed times and vertical jumps.

The first round feels farfetched, but he should get looks in the 30s and 40s from teams drawn to his unique versatility as a 237-pound playmaker, excellent rebounder and improved shooter.

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Jaedon LeDee

• Forward, 6-9, 240lb

• Basketball Reference

• Bart Torvik’s Advanced Stats

• BPM #16

• PRPG #5

Why does BPM love him?

• Pours in points on high usage, drawing a ton of Free Throws, good True Shooting. Good rebounder.

Why isn’t he in the first round?

• He’s a five-year player who plays in a minor NCAA conference.

Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps

This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.

• Jared Sullinger 2012

• Cameron Bairstow 2014

• Marcus Morris 2011

• Bobby Portis 2015

• Grant Williams 2019

Rafael Barlowe:

Jaedon LeDee is one of the more unique prospects in the country, as he has a rare blend of size, skill, and versatility. Listed at 6'9" and a chiseled 240 pounds, LeDee has the frame of an old-school bruiser and the game of a modern-day toolsy forward who can handle the ball, make plays for teammates, and knock down open jumpers. 

This season, LeDee has been a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches, averaging 20.9 points and 8.4 rebounds while shooting 56.9% from the field and 41.2% from long range. 

When you dig deeper into his numbers, LeDee is having one of the best statistical seasons in college basketball, according to Synergy Sports Technology.

LeDee is rated as excellent in the following categories according to Synergy: 

• Transition scoring - 81.5 FG% - 1.412 Points per Possession

• Half-court scoring - 56.2 FG% - 1.117 Points per Possession

• Post Ups - 58.5 FG% - 1.146 Points per Possession

• Isolation scoring - 52.7 FG% - 1.114 Points per Possession

• P&R Roll Man scoring - 61.8 FG% - 1.425 Points per Possession

• Guarded Catch & Shoot jumpers - 52% FG - 1.28 Points per Possession

• Dribble jumpers - 53.1% FG - 1.06 Points per Possession

• Finishing at the rim - 67.5% FG - 1.35 Points per Possession

LeDee's success this season can be attributed to his versatility. He has the strength to bully and overpower smaller defenders near the rim, but he also poses a scoring threat from the mid-post with his face-up game and pull-up shooting. Additionally, his ball-handling skills allow him to effectively attack from the perimeter, often drawing fouls and earning trips to the free-throw line.

An impressive statistic highlighting LeDee's impact is his 8.3 free throw attempts per game, which ranks him 7th in the nation. This ability to get to the charity stripe frequently underscores his aggressive playing style and offensive impact.

LeDee has recently displayed an unexpected proficiency from beyond the arc, shooting 41% on 34 attempts. This marked improvement in his three-point shooting has caught the attention of scouts, which is particularly noteworthy as he had not made a single three-pointer in his career prior to this season.

As LeDee's ball-handling and passing instincts have flourished in his expanded role, the foundation of his court vision can be traced back to his experience as a point guard before transitioning to the frontcourt due to a growth spurt.

LeDee's initial commitment our of high school to Ohio State over other prominent programs was based on the expectation of playing as a face-up four, with opportunities to showcase his three-point shooting and perimeter attacking skills. However, he never found his niche at Ohio State and TCU, and he ultimately found the stage to showcase his game at San Diego State, where he has blossomed into a legitimate NBA prospect.

His breakout season has elevated him to the top of the Mountain West conference in scoring, averaging 20.8 points per game. He also ranks as the conference's third-best rebounder, averaging 8.5 rebounds per game. On a national level, LeDee ranks in the top 20 in free throw attempts, free throws made, double-doubles, points per game, and offensive rebounds.

While LeDee's age may be held against him in terms of draft position, as he will be 25 at the start of the NBA season, his experience and maturity could benefit a team early on. Additionally, from a financial standpoint, teams would acquire a player nearing his prime years while on a rookie deal.

Says an NBA scout:

LeDee will be someone I pitch hard as a guaranteed contract/priority 2-way guy; I absolutely love his game.

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Anton Watson

• Forward, 6-8, 225lb

• Basketball Reference

• Bart Torvik’s Advanced Stats

• BPM #30

• PRPG #50

• TheAthletic 4-19 #100

Why does BPM love him?

• Efficient True Shooting, though on average Usage. Doesn’t turn the ball over, steals the ball, good rebounder, good defender, even has some average rate blocking. An all-around stat sheet filler.

Why isn’t he in the first round?

• He’s a five-year player.

• He’s a role player on a good Gonzaga team and he hasn’t shown he can score at higher usage.

Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps

This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.

• Trevor Booker 2010

• Marcus Morris 2010

• Bobby Portis 2015

• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 2021

• Marcus Morris 2011

NBADraftRoom.com

Watson has a broad base, a thick frame and natural strength. He can score on the low block and hit from outside and he’s also a polished passer. The ball skills and overall skill level that he possesses are advanced for his age. He can handle in the open court, make plays for his teammates. And he’s a load to handle once he gets up a head of steam in the open court.

While not the fastest athlete Watson has enough lateral agility and foot-speed to guard in space. He also shows good defensive awareness and positioning and seems to understand the game at a high level. Watson doesn’t necessarily project as a great rim protector at the next level but he should be effective guarding in the paint due to his strength, size and smarts.

Comparisons

• A tougher Trey Lyles

No Ceilings

As a player, Gonzaga’s Anton Watson is so good at plugging into so many different roles and unlocking dimensions on offense and defense that it’s hard not to imagine him as a skeleton key, prying open various locks for his current and future team.

Before we slam the stats with Watson, let’s look back on his career at Gonzaga. After winning Mr. Basketball for Washington State, an honor he earned after tearing apart his high school league in Gonzaga’s backyard, Watson committed in his junior year to play for Mark Few and the Zags. 

Watson has always been a jittery, athletic bundle of controlled chaos as a player. He’s a menace on both ends of the court and is keen to fill the holes in a lineup that would otherwise tank its effectiveness. Offensively, Watson does most of his damage around the rim with savage dunks and slick finishes, although his passing and shooting have slowly improved. Defensively, Watson has the rare trio of length, strength, and foot speed to seamlessly switch, fight through screens, and harry opponents wherever they are on the floor.

Across five years with Gonzaga, Watson showed steady improvement in all facets of his game. He missed the back half of his freshman campaign with a shoulder injury, but since then, Watson has progressed from a key bench player to starting all the games in his senior and fifth year with the Zags. In his last year with the Zags, he finally stepped into a spotlight role and was rightfully named to the All-WCC First Team.

Each year he played, Watson improved at a different skill to round out his game. As a freshman, he averaged just 4.9 points a game; as a senior, Watson averaged 14.5 points per game. He was also remarkably efficient, shooting 60.7% on two-pointers and 41.2% on his threes, although his deep shots were on limited volume. 

Alongside his scoring improvements, Watson’s assists per game steadily rose in each of his years while his turnover percentage went down simultaneously. Conversely, Watson never had less than a 2.8% steal percentage and a 1.8% block percentage. That speaks to his rangy ability to impact the game on the defensive end, even though the film tells the whole story.

While the basic counting stats are nice, looking at the deeper end of Watson’s advanced statistics is more fun to understand his skeleton key nature. To fully encapsulate the wide-ranging effects of Watson’s impact on the game is a difficult query to pull on BartTorvik. It’s tempting to find every positive indicator and throw it in the mix, but that leads to an imperfect sample of what kind of player Watson can be.

Perhaps it's fitting that when running my “skeleton key” query (over 60% two-point percentage, sub 12% turnover percentage, 2.0% steal percentage, 2.0% block percentage, and 15% defensive rebounding rate) brings about a fascinating handful of both 2024 and all-time players, none of which can easily be pinned down in a specific mold or even successful historical archetype.

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Vote

You can vote here. You can also post a comment vote which counts as 10 votes. (Or both.) However, to officially count, the comment must be include exactly one hashtag out of #SALLIS, #JONES, #LEDEE, #WATSON.

Funny variations cause extra work for me.