So I’m a big fan of GPII, mainly because I like defenders that pick up full court and also because I like small guys that dunk on big guys. But he won’t be a major piece on this team if he can’t shoot the three. Looking at his G league stats and his previous NBA stats it appears he is a sub 30% 3 pt shooter. But in the Warriors games last year and this year he has put down a couple shots with confidence. Any chance he’s learned how to shoot and he can be an impactful player at the perimeter? Any shot mechanics gurus with an opinion on this?
I was wondering this, too. Because sometimes they look great going in and I think "Start him!" But then, yeah, not all of them go in. I'm no shot guru but as far as I can tell, when he makes them, the shot looks basically smooth. It's not like watching some guy with a tortured shot like vintage Shawn Marion or Lonzo Ball. Maybe it's also a question of which looks he takes. And confidence.
I was at a social event in the Santa Cruz foothills and there was a distant occasional roar someone said "What is all that noise? Is there a beach concert?" And I only realized later: no, that's Moody hitting a three somewhere in the distance at the arena downtown.
We had a thread in the game thread regarding turnovers. The topic was the challenge of telling a team to constantly keep the ball moving, and to play fast, yet not commit turnovers. I think it was mduo13 who made what I think is a very valid and useful distinction: some turnovers are "The cost of doing business" and some are just lack of focus, Draymond's 8 second violation.
I can't imagine that the cost-of-doing-business ones are going to go down much unless we change style of play -- or personnel. You can't whip the ball around the perimeter, have actions off of two screens and sudden back-cuts, and never have the opponent shoot the gap on a pass or intercept a pass. It also drives everyone crazy when a player steps backward and out of bounds to shoot a 3.
Klay never does that, so among a million other reasons we want him back instantly is that he doesn't turn it over much, both because of his style of play and skill set. When the first thing you do after catching the ball is shoot it, not a lot of error creeps in. But this brings up the question of personnel. The Warriors want to integrate young players, but Poole is definitely destined to make poor decisions for a while to come. And the announcement that Kuminga might play does not make me think "Oh good we won't have turnovers." But it's not just young guys, it's also integrating new guys. Bjelly, Porter and Iggy are all about as reliable as anyone you could bring in, but they don't always have the timing down.
Still what seems to be the biggest problem involves the way Warriors often start plays: a throw ahead off a miss, or a Curry/Green action of some kind. Both of these lead to lethal outcomes, but are predicated on high skill levels. Chuck it ahead a bit off and it gets picked off. And failing to set the second or third screen just right can mean Steph isn't there yet, or is double teamed into trouble. That last bit is also very common. Steph doesn't just turn the ball over randomly. He gets pressured a ton. He also reaps the benefit of sudden one-handed no-look hook passes, or behind the back -- when those work they are great at surprising the offense, when they get picked off it's a massive groan.
So if I were Kerr I'd isolate only 5-8 turnovers from the Memphis game and break down what went wrong, and then show 5 more and go "Hey, cost of doing business, we're going to keep running that type of risk."
I don't remember who/when, but the "cost of doing business" re: turnovers in the Warriors system was originally coined by someone else.
Also, if you really want to understand the problem, breaking it down play-by-play is the ultimate way. stopnpop did a great breakdown of Steph & Dray's turnovers here and concluded that the defense's non-fear of Draymond's 3-point shot was a major factor allowing more guys to pick on Curry. Actually, it's really cool how the box scores on nba.com link to video highlights of each said moment, so you can see, for example, that a couple of Memphis's steals were probably uncalled fouls from hitting guys on the wrist/forearm.
Rewatching them, my take is that at least 5 of the turnovers were Memphis playing good defense; guys jumping passing lanes, keeping up in transition, etc. Honestly I have to give Memphis props for playing like that down the stretch of a road b2b. Some of those turnovers could have been avoided by guys being a little more careful with their passes, but being too careful leads to being stiff and would probably cancel out some sweet assists, so those are the ones I'm OK with. (Even Jordan Poole's one-handed attempted touchdown pass to Wiggins—that one was almost a sick highlight and it was pretty close to target despite being fired off super-suddenly.)
A few more of the turnovers came on miscommunications. Like, Bjeli screened for Poole then stepped like he was about to roll, and stopped, but Poole let off the pass to where he would've been, with a clear lane to the basket; that's something they need to get more experience playing together.
Guys trying to force it to Looney in traffic with Steven Adams on top of him? Those need to stop. (There were two similar ones.) The 8-second violation? Unbelievably dumb especially if Dray was aware of the fact that the Lakers lost on the same thing the night before. Poole failing to get the inbounds over Melton? Please, do better.
There's no way tonight's game has so many turnovers because that embarrassment will be fresh in the guys' minds, but also: OKC doesn't have the same team identity and coordination on defense. Dort is amazing but he's one guy. Memphis has smart, talented defenders up and down the roster.
Trying to pass to Loon when he doesn't have perfect post position is one of the Warriors' most consistent turnovers. Love the detail and thanks for sharing your thoughts after rewatching! We're in an exciting moment to watch this team, with so many things taking shape or trying to take shape all at once early in a season with a lot of new guys and new roles.
I wish I had something useful to add but this is so well put together that I don't. Excellent points all. I didn't know about the nba.com links, gonna check that out. thanks!
While I don't blame Steph for his TOs because he's often blitzed hard, it still feels like an issue for me because it shows how much the other team can get away with playing 4v5. I would really like to see Steph off-ball more often but that means Dray as the primary hub... which is great but, imo, also has it's issues right now since he's not an outside threat and he happens to set great screens for Steph but can't do it if he's the one with the ball looking to make plays.
There were a lot of bad turnovers this game… it happens. On to the next. Even the best teams in the league will piss away a dozen games a season. It happens.
Agreed that there’s an important distinction between the cost of doing business in a motion/ball movement offense and careless turnovers. Trying to get the ball over guys heads in transition or threading the needle on a back-cut, I can live with those passes getting thrown out of bounds or picked. But when we’re throwing the ball away on lazy passes in the half court, passes that if completed would make no difference to the probability of success of the possession but that turn into opponent breaks because guys are mailing it in, those are the things that are killing us and there were tons of them against both OKC and Memphis.
PS Playing small also leads to risk. It's easier for bigger opponents with longer reach to crowd your space, get in your passing lane or block your shot. So this, too, is a cost of coach's choice of how we play.
Site suggestion - provide a "proof-reading" response channel ("proof@dubnationhq.com?") outside normal comments. I feel like a dick pointing out errors that are likely speed/auto-correct related. Plus, I guess most readers could care less (it's what I get for being old and raised in Minnesota, where language counted - at least in the 1950s and 60s).
It does seem like the right time to get Moody and GP2 more minutes not to mention OPJ and Bjelli. I see no reason not to slow it all down a bit, not halfcourt plays, but just better planned playmaking and execution. Bjelli can score both inside and out. Let's see more of this! Frantic ball movement looks pretty but I'm more concerned with shots going in and we do need to get Poole going in the right direction not to mention Curry's shooting % back on track.
Would be lovely to see Kuminga out there but I think they have no reason to rush him if he's not close to 100%.
OPJ should definitely be playing more especially if JTA is out and they should be finding ways to get him more shots. He is hitting 40% of his 3s and that's why they signed him. Maybe they should just whisper in Poole's ear that he should try to find OPJ in the corner when the defense collapses instead of driving into traffic.
Tonight would be a great night for Poole to score like he did in preseason....
So I’m a big fan of GPII, mainly because I like defenders that pick up full court and also because I like small guys that dunk on big guys. But he won’t be a major piece on this team if he can’t shoot the three. Looking at his G league stats and his previous NBA stats it appears he is a sub 30% 3 pt shooter. But in the Warriors games last year and this year he has put down a couple shots with confidence. Any chance he’s learned how to shoot and he can be an impactful player at the perimeter? Any shot mechanics gurus with an opinion on this?
I was wondering this, too. Because sometimes they look great going in and I think "Start him!" But then, yeah, not all of them go in. I'm no shot guru but as far as I can tell, when he makes them, the shot looks basically smooth. It's not like watching some guy with a tortured shot like vintage Shawn Marion or Lonzo Ball. Maybe it's also a question of which looks he takes. And confidence.
Does anybody have a link to highlights for Moodys G League game?
I was at a social event in the Santa Cruz foothills and there was a distant occasional roar someone said "What is all that noise? Is there a beach concert?" And I only realized later: no, that's Moody hitting a three somewhere in the distance at the arena downtown.
That's awesome :)
It wasn't televised anywhere so we're betting on some fan footage, I think.
We had a thread in the game thread regarding turnovers. The topic was the challenge of telling a team to constantly keep the ball moving, and to play fast, yet not commit turnovers. I think it was mduo13 who made what I think is a very valid and useful distinction: some turnovers are "The cost of doing business" and some are just lack of focus, Draymond's 8 second violation.
I can't imagine that the cost-of-doing-business ones are going to go down much unless we change style of play -- or personnel. You can't whip the ball around the perimeter, have actions off of two screens and sudden back-cuts, and never have the opponent shoot the gap on a pass or intercept a pass. It also drives everyone crazy when a player steps backward and out of bounds to shoot a 3.
Klay never does that, so among a million other reasons we want him back instantly is that he doesn't turn it over much, both because of his style of play and skill set. When the first thing you do after catching the ball is shoot it, not a lot of error creeps in. But this brings up the question of personnel. The Warriors want to integrate young players, but Poole is definitely destined to make poor decisions for a while to come. And the announcement that Kuminga might play does not make me think "Oh good we won't have turnovers." But it's not just young guys, it's also integrating new guys. Bjelly, Porter and Iggy are all about as reliable as anyone you could bring in, but they don't always have the timing down.
Still what seems to be the biggest problem involves the way Warriors often start plays: a throw ahead off a miss, or a Curry/Green action of some kind. Both of these lead to lethal outcomes, but are predicated on high skill levels. Chuck it ahead a bit off and it gets picked off. And failing to set the second or third screen just right can mean Steph isn't there yet, or is double teamed into trouble. That last bit is also very common. Steph doesn't just turn the ball over randomly. He gets pressured a ton. He also reaps the benefit of sudden one-handed no-look hook passes, or behind the back -- when those work they are great at surprising the offense, when they get picked off it's a massive groan.
So if I were Kerr I'd isolate only 5-8 turnovers from the Memphis game and break down what went wrong, and then show 5 more and go "Hey, cost of doing business, we're going to keep running that type of risk."
I don't remember who/when, but the "cost of doing business" re: turnovers in the Warriors system was originally coined by someone else.
Also, if you really want to understand the problem, breaking it down play-by-play is the ultimate way. stopnpop did a great breakdown of Steph & Dray's turnovers here and concluded that the defense's non-fear of Draymond's 3-point shot was a major factor allowing more guys to pick on Curry. Actually, it's really cool how the box scores on nba.com link to video highlights of each said moment, so you can see, for example, that a couple of Memphis's steals were probably uncalled fouls from hitting guys on the wrist/forearm.
https://dubnationhq.com/p/explain-one-play-stephen-currys-special/comment/3408288
Rewatching them, my take is that at least 5 of the turnovers were Memphis playing good defense; guys jumping passing lanes, keeping up in transition, etc. Honestly I have to give Memphis props for playing like that down the stretch of a road b2b. Some of those turnovers could have been avoided by guys being a little more careful with their passes, but being too careful leads to being stiff and would probably cancel out some sweet assists, so those are the ones I'm OK with. (Even Jordan Poole's one-handed attempted touchdown pass to Wiggins—that one was almost a sick highlight and it was pretty close to target despite being fired off super-suddenly.)
A few more of the turnovers came on miscommunications. Like, Bjeli screened for Poole then stepped like he was about to roll, and stopped, but Poole let off the pass to where he would've been, with a clear lane to the basket; that's something they need to get more experience playing together.
Guys trying to force it to Looney in traffic with Steven Adams on top of him? Those need to stop. (There were two similar ones.) The 8-second violation? Unbelievably dumb especially if Dray was aware of the fact that the Lakers lost on the same thing the night before. Poole failing to get the inbounds over Melton? Please, do better.
There's no way tonight's game has so many turnovers because that embarrassment will be fresh in the guys' minds, but also: OKC doesn't have the same team identity and coordination on defense. Dort is amazing but he's one guy. Memphis has smart, talented defenders up and down the roster.
PS Not sure you're right that "Dort is one guy." Seems like two, I swear to God if you look at his physique.
NBA.com interactive stats! THANK YOU!!! Crazy good resource. Hey friends, watch here if you want to feel sad about the Memphis game all over again!!
Draymond's TOs:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=TOV&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0022100070&PlayerID=203110&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612744&flag=1&sct=plot§ion=game
Curry's:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=TOV&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0022100070&PlayerID=201939&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612744&flag=1&sct=plot§ion=game
Yes! Those direct links from the box score are great
Trying to pass to Loon when he doesn't have perfect post position is one of the Warriors' most consistent turnovers. Love the detail and thanks for sharing your thoughts after rewatching! We're in an exciting moment to watch this team, with so many things taking shape or trying to take shape all at once early in a season with a lot of new guys and new roles.
Pass into Loon TOs are SO annoying especially because it's not like passing into Loon is even that likely to lead to magical outcomes. Shaq he ain't.
Maybe passing to Loon is how they get shooters open
Agree… they’re not giving it to him so he can go 1-on-1. It’s leading to motion actions.
True but he's also not that suave as a post passer, let alone scorer.
I wish I had something useful to add but this is so well put together that I don't. Excellent points all. I didn't know about the nba.com links, gonna check that out. thanks!
While I don't blame Steph for his TOs because he's often blitzed hard, it still feels like an issue for me because it shows how much the other team can get away with playing 4v5. I would really like to see Steph off-ball more often but that means Dray as the primary hub... which is great but, imo, also has it's issues right now since he's not an outside threat and he happens to set great screens for Steph but can't do it if he's the one with the ball looking to make plays.
There were a lot of bad turnovers this game… it happens. On to the next. Even the best teams in the league will piss away a dozen games a season. It happens.
Agreed that there’s an important distinction between the cost of doing business in a motion/ball movement offense and careless turnovers. Trying to get the ball over guys heads in transition or threading the needle on a back-cut, I can live with those passes getting thrown out of bounds or picked. But when we’re throwing the ball away on lazy passes in the half court, passes that if completed would make no difference to the probability of success of the possession but that turn into opponent breaks because guys are mailing it in, those are the things that are killing us and there were tons of them against both OKC and Memphis.
PS Playing small also leads to risk. It's easier for bigger opponents with longer reach to crowd your space, get in your passing lane or block your shot. So this, too, is a cost of coach's choice of how we play.
"Exacerbate" not "exasperate". People get exasperated, while situations get exacerbated (made worse).
Memphis deserved credit for upping its defensive intensity and blocking shots. Stuff that worked in the first quarter didn't work as well after.
When you still have a fishing date after the breakup so you bring extra worms because you're not sure if your exacerbate.
Wow. That is really impressive, Ando. Took me 20 seconds. Worth the time, fellow Dub fans.
Thanks, that's a typo, I know what both those words mean. Just mangled the spelling and fell into the comforting embrace of auto correct
Site suggestion - provide a "proof-reading" response channel ("proof@dubnationhq.com?") outside normal comments. I feel like a dick pointing out errors that are likely speed/auto-correct related. Plus, I guess most readers could care less (it's what I get for being old and raised in Minnesota, where language counted - at least in the 1950s and 60s).
This is some hi brow sports site!
Lmao highbrow would be able to afford an editor!
Finally managed to edit though, so it's all fixed : )
19.6 assists per turnover.
Uhhhh....??
Oopsies wrong column. Will update soon. Apparently that is the "assist ratio" not ast:to
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=AST_RATIO&dir=-1
Yup - no worries.
19 assists and a turnover would be pretty close to a perfect half of basketball, no? (speaking, at least, for the defenseless clipboards....)
1.71 is the real number, which is near the top, but not the best
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=AST_PCT&dir=-1
Something weird at Substack because I cant edit on my phone. Will try to correct after watching my son dominate* this soccer game
*may or may not dominate
Beautiful day for it - enjoy!
It does seem like the right time to get Moody and GP2 more minutes not to mention OPJ and Bjelli. I see no reason not to slow it all down a bit, not halfcourt plays, but just better planned playmaking and execution. Bjelli can score both inside and out. Let's see more of this! Frantic ball movement looks pretty but I'm more concerned with shots going in and we do need to get Poole going in the right direction not to mention Curry's shooting % back on track.
Would be lovely to see Kuminga out there but I think they have no reason to rush him if he's not close to 100%.
OPJ should definitely be playing more especially if JTA is out and they should be finding ways to get him more shots. He is hitting 40% of his 3s and that's why they signed him. Maybe they should just whisper in Poole's ear that he should try to find OPJ in the corner when the defense collapses instead of driving into traffic.
SPARE THE AIR DAY
Stop the Steal!
The basketball, of course.
The ball… 17 times
Moses opened the Red Sea, it should be easy for our Moses to open Jordan “pool” 💪🏽
nah, we got a freshy for us here: https://dubnationhq.com/p/game-thread-damion-lee-out-vs-thunder
Swaggier than Swaggy P surely not
“He thinks he is” is different than “he is”.