Some of the bolded rankings of the above players may help to explain the Warriors' decision-making to date this offseason.
Using these rankings as a guide, the Warriors are far better off keeping Kuminga than accepting any offer made for him to date and should do their best fill their remaining roster spots with GPII, Horford, Melton, and Burks. After that, the pickings appear slim, but Knox and Rowe grade out surprising well according to this one metric.
I get it... but why does it always feel like Amir Coffee comes in and makes a bunch of critical shots, while playing really solid wing defense every time we play against him?
OT: Thinking Basketball (Ben Taylor) has been running an off-season series as they tend to do, this time it's the top 25 players of the 21st century, looking at one-year results informed by surrounding years. Also as usual, there is a ranking, but ranges are really the better way to think about this kind of thing. So far we have:
25 Jaxon Kidd
24 Jayson Tatum
23 Dwight Howard
22 Draymond Green
21 Manu Ginobli
20 James Harden
19 Tracy McGrady
18 Luka Doncic
I'm too lazy to track down the ranges right now but maybe I'll fill it in later...
I thought you said 20th century. Those are all 21st century players except McGrady (for his first two or three seasons) and Kidd (for his first half-dozen seasons).
Way OT, but a cautionary tale for the post-Curry, post-Kerr Warriors:
Grimsby Town 2, Manchester United 0 30'
Edit: What exactly is that cautionary tale? A few weakness can ruin an entire team? Don't keep changing coaches/philosophies every other year? Don't try to force square pegs into a round hole tactically? Sell high on young players unless they're clearly stars? Only sign players that go all-out all the time and have a great feel for the game? I have no idea (maybe all of them?)
Wow. I lived in Grimsby briefly back in the 80s. This would have been as unbelievable then as picking Pahrump Valley Little League to beat the NY Yankees.
Quick Question: who's the best 'athlete' who's played for the dubs who's used their athleticism to succeed and help the team within the Kerrball system?
Wiggs has the 'Cism but didn't really feel he used as much of it.
GPII comes to mind.
I'm just looking for examples of how well they fit in and flourish in the Dubs system and could that be the blueprint for JK to be successful?
That's the first person that came to mind. If you watch some of the highlights from his 76ers days, you'll see incredible athleticism. Pairing that athleticism with BBIQ, along with four rings and seven NBA Finals appearances keeps Andre in the HOF discussion
Even if you (understandably) feel there was someone more deserving of FMVP that series, the fact that Andre was the one who received it should tell you something about how impressive his play was.
Personal opinion: neither. Unless you're talking Wilt-level superiority, elite athleticism is not by itself a trait that contributes nearly as much to winning as BBIQ and skill. IMO Kerr is simply obeying and prioritizing the math of modern basketball.
I wonder then how much Kerr has played or not played certain players who he might have disagreed with fitting into his high BBIQ system as an FU to the FO?
I wonder if Horford is still agile enough that the Warriors could use him as a small forward in a Curry, Podziemski, Butler, Horford, Post lineup. That's an awful lot of spacing and shooting.
Great article and comps (praise be to APRIBOT and EA)
I've wanted Horford on the team for so long (although we had no shot of getting him in his prime without giving up some serious assets). He's sort of the anti-JK: not much athleticism left, but makes up for it with veteran savvy and shooting. If his defense starts to decline of the season, Dray might be able to cover enough to make it work (although it might be increasingly difficult to play him alone or with JK if he declines too much). I think he'll be good for the entire season, though (including good enough on defense). Very excited to watch Al in Dubs uniform (probably the most excited I've been for a signing since OPJ).
OT, but speaking of JK, if we do make a trade, maybe we should try to get Dallas involved to throw in Olivier-Maxence Prosper (for a protected 2nd swap or whatever, they're dumping him I think) as a designated Young Player Who's Athletic And Has Good Defensive Potential But Probably Can't Shoot (TM) (or maybe just make the trade anyway to balance out the guard-forward ratio of the roster)
My guess is that he's just going to hold out until the Dubs have to put 14 on the roster. At that point, they lose their leverage, since they have to sign players to meet league rules. If they use the MLE, then that caps the offer they can make JK, and some other team can outbid us.
The thing I'm puzzled about, is what team does he think is going to sign him for $25 mil a year? His agent has to have been sounding teams out.
Training camp is going to be really important even for the new potential high IQ vets. I imagine they want to get everyone in the building by the time camp rolls around
What is the significance of the QO expiring, though?
Dubs would still be able to match, correct?
Otherwise, he's just be a UFA, which doesn't make a ton of sense (if that were true, RFA players would just hold out until Oct. 1, and then sign the deal of their choice).
So, I'm guessing that Oct. 21 is the decision day (unless there is some nuance that has gone whizzing by me).
Yes, QO expires, GSW can match, but now JK has no leverage since he can’t threaten to take the QO to make GSW sign-and-trade him. Without the sign-and-trade, he can only field offer sheets from teams with cap.
Also, realistically, how many teams are going to be able to sign him Oct 20? No one wants to tie up their cap space like that for a long shot to sign JK.
Like back in the day, GSW waived Jeremy Lin and I think others to clear space to make a hopeless offer sheet to DeAndre Jordan which was instantly matched. That was early in the off-season and was still disruptive.
Ah ... OK. I forgot that he'd need the Dubs to get the money he wants in an S&T trade.
But, yeah, JK playing games with the Oct. 20 deadline only makes sense if there is some white knight team out there prepared to get him if he can get clear of the RFA. Doesn't seem like anyone can, really.
While I would rather have Kevon Looney, I am at least hopefully that Horford can be a good mentor for the young bigs on the team and provide a different perspective that may be helpful to Trayce and Quinten.
I would rather have both :). Losing Loon was a real blow. It makes signing Horford even more important...
I think you are also vastly underestimating Horford's potential as an actual direct contributor on the team, if we're just getting Andre '22 than it's going to be a big disappointment.
Celebrini's gonna have his hands full this year with Horford, GP2, Melton, Steph, Dray, and JB (plus Podz and Moody coming back from off-season surgeries).
Here are the season ending actual EPM marks for the 2024-25 NBA season for selected NBA players: https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual
6. Curry
15. Butler
75. Green
76. GPII
88. Horford
91. Podz
109. Wiggins
111. Looney
134. Moody
146. Poole
148. Klay
150. Melton
151. Burks
152. George
155. Hyland
166. Post
184. Monk
187. Santos
195. Kuminga
207. Time Lord
217. TJD
251. Grayson Allen
254. Kevin Knox
255. Hield
260. Beal
262. Slomo
280. Westbrook
286. Jackson Rowe
291. Ben Simmons
295. Brogdon
328. Seth Curry
365. Lindy Waters III
369. Precious Achiuwa
370. Amir Coffey
374. Mason Plumlee
391. Ayo Dosunmu
395. Nick Richards
418. Pat Spencer
422. Corey Kispert
442. Kyle Kuzma
454. Patrick Williams
456. Bruce Brown
471. Dario Saric
511. Bronny James
Some of the bolded rankings of the above players may help to explain the Warriors' decision-making to date this offseason.
Using these rankings as a guide, the Warriors are far better off keeping Kuminga than accepting any offer made for him to date and should do their best fill their remaining roster spots with GPII, Horford, Melton, and Burks. After that, the pickings appear slim, but Knox and Rowe grade out surprising well according to this one metric.
I get it... but why does it always feel like Amir Coffee comes in and makes a bunch of critical shots, while playing really solid wing defense every time we play against him?
You had me at “and above average at finishing”
OT: Thinking Basketball (Ben Taylor) has been running an off-season series as they tend to do, this time it's the top 25 players of the 21st century, looking at one-year results informed by surrounding years. Also as usual, there is a ranking, but ranges are really the better way to think about this kind of thing. So far we have:
25 Jaxon Kidd
24 Jayson Tatum
23 Dwight Howard
22 Draymond Green
21 Manu Ginobli
20 James Harden
19 Tracy McGrady
18 Luka Doncic
I'm too lazy to track down the ranges right now but maybe I'll fill it in later...
I thought you said 20th century. Those are all 21st century players except McGrady (for his first two or three seasons) and Kidd (for his first half-dozen seasons).
Fixed
Way OT, but a cautionary tale for the post-Curry, post-Kerr Warriors:
Grimsby Town 2, Manchester United 0 30'
Edit: What exactly is that cautionary tale? A few weakness can ruin an entire team? Don't keep changing coaches/philosophies every other year? Don't try to force square pegs into a round hole tactically? Sell high on young players unless they're clearly stars? Only sign players that go all-out all the time and have a great feel for the game? I have no idea (maybe all of them?)
Wow. I lived in Grimsby briefly back in the 80s. This would have been as unbelievable then as picking Pahrump Valley Little League to beat the NY Yankees.
Haha, what a coincidence!
Grimsby Town's payroll is apparently £36,550/wk lol (for the entire team combined)
12-11 PKs....
Thanks Onana
Quick Question: who's the best 'athlete' who's played for the dubs who's used their athleticism to succeed and help the team within the Kerrball system?
Wiggs has the 'Cism but didn't really feel he used as much of it.
GPII comes to mind.
I'm just looking for examples of how well they fit in and flourish in the Dubs system and could that be the blueprint for JK to be successful?
Andre?
That's the first person that came to mind. If you watch some of the highlights from his 76ers days, you'll see incredible athleticism. Pairing that athleticism with BBIQ, along with four rings and seven NBA Finals appearances keeps Andre in the HOF discussion
It's kind of nuts he has only one all star selection. His gold medals should push him to the HOF though. Maybe.
And the FMVP we don't talk about
Even if you (understandably) feel there was someone more deserving of FMVP that series, the fact that Andre was the one who received it should tell you something about how impressive his play was.
Steph is good with it though. He would rather have rings. True story.
GP2
Hmm..is that a kerr ball design issue or a failure to attract/draft good athletes?
Personal opinion: neither. Unless you're talking Wilt-level superiority, elite athleticism is not by itself a trait that contributes nearly as much to winning as BBIQ and skill. IMO Kerr is simply obeying and prioritizing the math of modern basketball.
I wonder then how much Kerr has played or not played certain players who he might have disagreed with fitting into his high BBIQ system as an FU to the FO?
I wonder if Horford is still agile enough that the Warriors could use him as a small forward in a Curry, Podziemski, Butler, Horford, Post lineup. That's an awful lot of spacing and shooting.
Great article and comps (praise be to APRIBOT and EA)
I've wanted Horford on the team for so long (although we had no shot of getting him in his prime without giving up some serious assets). He's sort of the anti-JK: not much athleticism left, but makes up for it with veteran savvy and shooting. If his defense starts to decline of the season, Dray might be able to cover enough to make it work (although it might be increasingly difficult to play him alone or with JK if he declines too much). I think he'll be good for the entire season, though (including good enough on defense). Very excited to watch Al in Dubs uniform (probably the most excited I've been for a signing since OPJ).
OT, but speaking of JK, if we do make a trade, maybe we should try to get Dallas involved to throw in Olivier-Maxence Prosper (for a protected 2nd swap or whatever, they're dumping him I think) as a designated Young Player Who's Athletic And Has Good Defensive Potential But Probably Can't Shoot (TM) (or maybe just make the trade anyway to balance out the guard-forward ratio of the roster)
I wonder if Cyrus is right and JK will drag this all the way to October...
My guess is that he's just going to hold out until the Dubs have to put 14 on the roster. At that point, they lose their leverage, since they have to sign players to meet league rules. If they use the MLE, then that caps the offer they can make JK, and some other team can outbid us.
The thing I'm puzzled about, is what team does he think is going to sign him for $25 mil a year? His agent has to have been sounding teams out.
The team needs to have 14 players at the start of the regular season, Oct 21. Qualifying offers expire on Oct 1.
Didn’t you say that a team in GSW’s position would tender a new QO the minute the old one expired? In order to maintain the rights?
I am lost once again…
Training camp is going to be really important even for the new potential high IQ vets. I imagine they want to get everyone in the building by the time camp rolls around
What is the significance of the QO expiring, though?
Dubs would still be able to match, correct?
Otherwise, he's just be a UFA, which doesn't make a ton of sense (if that were true, RFA players would just hold out until Oct. 1, and then sign the deal of their choice).
So, I'm guessing that Oct. 21 is the decision day (unless there is some nuance that has gone whizzing by me).
Yes, QO expires, GSW can match, but now JK has no leverage since he can’t threaten to take the QO to make GSW sign-and-trade him. Without the sign-and-trade, he can only field offer sheets from teams with cap.
Also, realistically, how many teams are going to be able to sign him Oct 20? No one wants to tie up their cap space like that for a long shot to sign JK.
Like back in the day, GSW waived Jeremy Lin and I think others to clear space to make a hopeless offer sheet to DeAndre Jordan which was instantly matched. That was early in the off-season and was still disruptive.
Ah ... OK. I forgot that he'd need the Dubs to get the money he wants in an S&T trade.
But, yeah, JK playing games with the Oct. 20 deadline only makes sense if there is some white knight team out there prepared to get him if he can get clear of the RFA. Doesn't seem like anyone can, really.
While I would rather have Kevon Looney, I am at least hopefully that Horford can be a good mentor for the young bigs on the team and provide a different perspective that may be helpful to Trayce and Quinten.
I would rather have both :). Losing Loon was a real blow. It makes signing Horford even more important...
I think you are also vastly underestimating Horford's potential as an actual direct contributor on the team, if we're just getting Andre '22 than it's going to be a big disappointment.
I figured his contributions directly as a player were more or less baked into expectations already
Celebrini's gonna have his hands full this year with Horford, GP2, Melton, Steph, Dray, and JB (plus Podz and Moody coming back from off-season surgeries).
Keep those guys reasonably healthy, and WGBC!