Al Horford, an APRIBOT scouting report
The widely anticipated free agent signing
APRIBOT is our friend
I have been working on a new version of APRIBOT. As you may recall, APRIBOT is software I wrote to find comparisons for college players. This is particularly interesting for draft prospects.
Anyway, I’ve retooled her to produce rudimentary scouting reports and find NBA player comparisons. I’ve also added more safety measures to prevent the unfortunate bot extortion incidents of last year.
Al Horford is (probably) our friend
…if the Warriors will pay him enough money to keep him from retiring.
As we know, free agency is on hold while the Jonathan Kuminga contract situation is resolved. The rumored GSW free agency signings are Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II.
Today, we let APRIBOT review Horford’s performance.
As promised, Al Horford 2025 is a very high volume 3P specialist with above average 3P%. What’s less expected is that he is also still an above average defender. He is above average at blocks, rebounding and overall Defensive BPM.
He also happens to be a deadeye FT shooter and above average at finishing, but these are less important as he also rarely takes twos or free throws. His usage is very low, which means he’s used to sitting in the corner and spacing the floor and getting occasional shots.
Similar players are the older 3-and-D Nicolas Batum and Channing Frye who was a key vet stretch big for the Dynasty-era Cavaliers.
The numbers are: standard deviations above/below mean (raw number, league percentile). Basketball-Reference glossary.
Scouting Report for Al Horford (2025) - Overall
**Very Good:**
- 3P: +1.75 (114, 92nd)
- 3PA: +1.81 (314, 93rd)
- 3PAr: +1.82 (.681, 96th)
- FT%: +1.24 (.895, 95th)
**Above Average:**
- 2P%: +0.77 (.551, 86th)
- 3P%: +0.60 (.363, 73rd)
- BLK: +0.67 (51, 85th)
- BLK%: +0.68 (2.8, 82nd)
- BPM: +0.56 (1.2, 81st)
- DBPM: +0.73 (1.1, 84th)
- DRB: +0.86 (290, 83rd)
- DRB%: +0.67 (18.9, 77th)
- DWS: +0.88 (2.4, 83rd)
- eFG%: +0.71 (.547, 84th)
- GS: +0.54 (42, 70th)
- TOV%: +0.77 (8.8, 86th)
- TRB: +0.56 (369, 78th)
- TS%: +0.61 (.563, 78th)
- VORP: +0.53 (1.3, 81st)
- WS: +0.57 (4.4, 78th)
- WS/48: +0.55 (.129, 79th)
**Below Average:**
- 2P: -0.54 (81, 39th)
- 2PA: -0.61 (147, 36th)
- FT: -0.65 (34, 33rd)
- FTA: -0.72 (38, 28th)
- USG%: -0.87 (13.8, 18th)
**Bad:**
- FTr: -1.06 (.082, 6th)
**Very Bad:**
- Age: -2.92 (38, 1st)
Top Similar Players to Al Horford (2025) - Overall:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Nicolas Batum 2021 LAC 0.8790
Channing Frye 2016 2TM 0.8765
Nicolas Batum 2023 LAC 0.8723
Channing Frye 2017 CLE 0.8458
Nicolas Batum 2022 LAC 0.8416
Matt Barnes 2014 LAC 0.8396
Jrue Holiday 2025 BOS 0.8307
Dirk Nowitzki 2018 DAL 0.8241
Mike Dunleavy 2015 CHI 0.8237
Marvin Williams 2019 CHO 0.8228If you restrict the comparison group to just Centers, similar strengths emerge, but it brings out that with Horford you’ll get a lot more 3P shooting, accuracy and ball care than a normal center. But also way less 2P and FTs. And offensive rebounding percentage is very low as one might expect from someone stationed on the perimeter on offense. And subtly, Horford’s defense no longer becomes standout compared to other centers. But it’s a good sign that it’s not a negative either.
The closest comps get more Stretch-5-ish.
Scouting Report for Al Horford (2025) - Among Cs
**Elite:**
- 3P: +5.13 (114, 99th)
- 3PA: +5.16 (314, 99th)
- 3PAr: +4.20 (.681, 100th)
**Very Good:**
- FT%: +1.60 (.895, 98th)
**Above Average:**
- 3P%: +0.95 (.363, 85th)
- AST: +0.71 (128, 82nd)
- BPM: +0.58 (1.2, 79th)
- DWS: +0.53 (2.4, 77th)
- GS: +0.52 (42, 69th)
- OBPM: +0.51 (0.1, 75th)
- PF: +0.65 (81, 68th)
- TOV%: +0.94 (8.8, 92nd)
- VORP: +0.56 (1.3, 82nd)
**Below Average:**
- 2P: -0.55 (81, 39th)
- 2PA: -0.58 (147, 37th)
- FG%: -0.56 (.423, 21st)
- FT: -0.61 (34, 34th)
- FTA: -0.70 (38, 28th)
- TRB%: -0.83 (12.1, 16th)
- USG%: -0.62 (13.8, 27th)
**Bad:**
- FTr: -1.19 (.082, 3rd)
- ORB%: -1.05 (5.2, 8th)
**Very Bad:**
- Age: -2.62 (38, 1st)
Top Similar Players to Al Horford (2025) - Among Cs:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Channing Frye 2016 2TM 0.9550
Channing Frye 2017 CLE 0.9461
Dirk Nowitzki 2018 DAL 0.9228
Kelly Olynyk 2020 MIA 0.9158
Rasheed Wallace 2009 DET 0.9074
Mike Muscala 2023 2TM 0.9005
Brook Lopez 2019 MIL 0.8926
Duop Reath 2024 POR 0.8906
Brook Lopez 2025 MIL 0.8902
Brook Lopez 2024 MIL 0.8900
I can’t help throwing in the comps for Al Horford (2024). Now these are comps of destiny! Yes, you have old Batum and Frye again, but you also have old P.J. Tucker, one of the great 3-and-D players, the holy Otto Porter Jr from the 2022 championship, old Andre Iguodala from the 2017 championship, and Mike Dunleavy Jr!
I hope it’s not too symbolic… that Al Horford is 1 year too old to be a championship role player.
Top Similar Players to Al Horford (2024) - Overall:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Nicolas Batum 2021 LAC 0.9172
Nicolas Batum 2022 LAC 0.8525
P.J. Tucker 2022 MIA 0.8323
Otto Porter Jr. 2022 GSW 0.8319
Mike Dunleavy 2011 IND 0.8314
Matt Barnes 2012 LAL 0.8307
Andre Iguodala 2017 GSW 0.8290
Nicolas Batum 2023 LAC 0.8199
Shane Battier 2011 2TM 0.8160
Channing Frye 2016 2TM 0.8134
I wonder if Horford is still agile enough that the Warriors could use him as a small forward in a Curry, Podziemski, Butler, Horford, Post lineup. That's an awful lot of spacing and shooting.
Great article and comps (praise be to APRIBOT and EA)
I've wanted Horford on the team for so long (although we had no shot of getting him in his prime without giving up some serious assets). He's sort of the anti-JK: not much athleticism left, but makes up for it with veteran savvy and shooting. If his defense starts to decline of the season, Dray might be able to cover enough to make it work (although it might be increasingly difficult to play him alone or with JK if he declines too much). I think he'll be good for the entire season, though (including good enough on defense). Very excited to watch Al in Dubs uniform (probably the most excited I've been for a signing since OPJ).
OT, but speaking of JK, if we do make a trade, maybe we should try to get Dallas involved to throw in Olivier-Maxence Prosper (for a protected 2nd swap or whatever, they're dumping him I think) as a designated Young Player Who's Athletic And Has Good Defensive Potential But Probably Can't Shoot (TM) (or maybe just make the trade anyway to balance out the guard-forward ratio of the roster)