138 Comments

50/40/90 watch. I know, I know, it's not a perfect measure of player value and it really should be 2p%/3p%/FT instead of FG%. But round numbers are fun, so stop being a spoilsport (FG%>.475, 3P%>.385, FT%>.850):

Steph .485/.426/.915 31.5 PPG

KD .546/.479/.875 28.3 PPG (NASTY...but 26 G)

Tobias Harris .520/.401/.891 19.7 PPG

Kyrie .500/.385/.922 27 PPG

CP3 .494/.388/.935 16.3 PPG

Jokic .564/.409/.860 26.3 PPG

Kawhi .516/.397/.881 25.3 PPG

Middleton .475/.425/.894 20.4 PPG

Jamal Murray 0.477/0.408/0.869 21.2 PPG

Norman Powell 0.482/0.411/0.866 18.7 PPG

KAT 0.487/0.394/0.862 24.8 PPG

11 players make the cut. None seem particularly likely to actually reach the magic round numbers, but it's definitely becoming more common than the 1-2 players who would get there each decade. If Kyrie gets hot or Tobias hits his FTs, they're the only ones who could make the club this year.

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Wow Wiggins!

r/Warriors @GSWreddit

On criticism of Wiggins not caring:

“A couple weeks ago his girlfriend was going into labor, he had her delay inducing labor so that he can play a regular season game for the Warriors and then immediately after the game was over he said yep time to induce labor, I’ll be there.”

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Holy crap.

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Is is a bad sign that I read the labor inducing drug Pitocin as a new form of blockchain crypto currency?

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yeah, the phrase "going into labor" probably shouldn't have been used, as it makes it sound unforced, in which case this would be pretty unsane.

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That’s what I was thinking, don’t they normally schedule inducement around office hours and the doctor’s golf game?

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Lol..you’re not wrong though

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Lately the stats I've been most fascinated by have been per 100 min ORtg and DRtg. I have noticed though that certain players seem to be far better than these stats make them out to be, and one is Andrew Wiggins. Can anyone explain to me why these stats seem to indicate that he is poor at both offense and defense, while so many other things indicate the opposite?

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ORtg and DRtg are dangerous stats to follow because they depend so heavily on when you play your minutes. Wiggins plays about 10 minutes per game with the 2nd unit to start the 2nd and and 4th quarters, while Steph and Draymond are resting.

Not every team rests their starters in the same pattern, so Wiggins may end up playing with backups against starters.

Note that Wiggins' DRPM, which does take into account who is on the floor at the same time, its a sensational 2.56, which puts him at #23 in the entire league.

Offensively Wiggins' ORPM is rather mediocre, probably because he does not have great floor vision and is a volume shooter but lacks the gravity of Steph or Klay.

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I'd mostly stay away from the all-in-one metrics, personally.

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It's a bad metric? Any stat that doesn't accurately account for the other players on the court is going to be misleading and that is hard to do. Wiggins is spending a far amount of time with the bench unit and that's going to make him look worse than he really is. I prefer to look at the per 36 metrics, eFG and TS which still don't account for the effect of the other 4 players but at least lets you know what Wiggins himself actually did. By those metrics he has been a somewhat better than average NBA player which pretty much aligns with the eye test. The only real black mark that I see is that his FT% really ought to be better for a wing. That's something he can presumably work on.

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Per 36 numbers, TS and EFG also din’t do justice to the fact that he’s one of the best and most versatile defenders in the league.

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Is there anyone to compare Wiggins’ efficiency when’s with Steph vs. without Steph. To my eye, he ends up taking a lot more tough shots (deep 2’s and contested 3’s) when he’s “the guy” on offense vs the good looks Curry’s gravity creates for him.

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https://www.fantasylabs.com/nba/on-off/

This says 55.5 efg when steph is with him vs 52.1 when he's off

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*is there any way?

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His FT% has steadily gone up lately though, if I'm not mistaken.

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67% pre-all star break, 76% after. His percentages have been better in the 2nd half across the board.

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On 95.7 some blithering idiot on their morning show is saying Wiseman needs to be like Zion, as if anything about them were similar.

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If by more like Zion, they mean better at basketball, I agree.

Of course, there are a couple things Wiseman could do like Zion that would make him much better: going after every rebound and aggression instead of fadeaways on offense for two.

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Wiseman's rebounding on a per36 basis is (checks bbr) SIGNIFICANTLY better than Zion's.

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And yet, with Wiseman on the floor the Dubs get out-rebounded by 6.2%. With Zion, The Pelicans are a hugely fantastic rebounding team. They out rebound teams by 6.8%.

It's similar with On-Off stats. The Warriors are a better rebounding team when Wiseman is not on the floor. Part of that is Looney of course, but there's also a lot more smallball and Paschall at 5 which is a very tough rebounding group. The Pelicans are better at rebounding when Zion is out there. And they typically replace him with Steven Adams or Hayes.

Despite the per 36 numbers, I might take Zion as a rebounder. Though I will say, Wiseman occasionally had flashes of aggression on that end that seemed promising.

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I may be missing something, but it sounds like you are saying you’d take Zion as a rebounder because of the other rebounders around him.

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Is it the other rebounders around him or is he a team rebounder who may not get credit for rebounds in the boxscore, but positions himself well? I don't think rebounds are a solely individual stat. But by how much do I discount Westbrook? There's more synergies to explore there.

Partially, I dove deeper because it matches my eye test. And honestly the rebounding to me is weird. Wiseman is super long, Curry is an above average rebounder for a PG, Oubre's really good for a SG, Wiggins seems average for a SF, and Draymond seems average to slightly below at rebounding. So why is it that they are 30th in the league at rebounding?

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The passing would be nice

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I tried to keep it more realistic for now lol.

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🤣

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Significantly greater development aside, Zion is built like a mini Shaq, and Wiseman is more in the KD or KG mold. If he reaches his ceiling, it will involve a lot more finesse than the style that Zion plays with. This guy, a member of the 95.7 team, was saying that Wiseman should just be going thru people in the post the way Zion does. That's just ignorance- sure, he'll eventually get to the line more and have a higher fg% near the hoop, but that type of play should not be his goal. And Mr. 95.7 was also saying he needs to go for rebounds like Zion, which is hilarious, as JW was rebounding a couple more per 36 than Zion, and has room to grow in that area.

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LGW friend Patrick Murray completely nails it on the nuances of the Minny pick — making last week’s diaper-wetting by Slater and Strauss (both of whom I normally like) look foolish: https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmurray/2021/05/05/golden-state-warriors-face-rare-chance-to-improve-playoff-positioning-and-nba-draft-prospects/?sh=4c5f936fce13

TLDR: Minnesota rising a bit at this point is probably more good for us than bad. To that end: let’s crush OKC!!

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So we can root hard for Minnesota tonight without any conflicting feelings!

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If we end up with #4 and #14, could we package them and trade up to #1 to draft Obi Toppin?

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Followup, if the Warriors ended up with Scottie Barnes with the #5 pick, i wouldn't be unhappy even if his jump shot leaves something to be desired. In a perfect world, Corey Kispert's draft stock falls so low the Warriors can pick him with their own pick but that probably isn't going to happen.

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If they're not in the top 5 (and they keep the pick), Kispert is the easy pick to me with the Minny pick. The NBA is a shooting league these days, don't overthink it.

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Yeah, Kispert has Warriors written all over him with his shooting, selflessness and BBIQ

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#5 is the *one* draft slot that has gotten significantly less likely with Minnesota’s mild recent uptick. At this point (Minny at #28) we have only a 14.8% shot at #5, and if Minny rises to #26, that drops to 2%. Basically, say goodbye to #5.

On the bright side, as Patrick notes, it’s really more of a four-player draft that a five-player draft; and our shot at #4 barely changes barely at all whether Minny is #30 (12.0%) or #25 (10.1%).

And even more importantly: our odds of the pick conveying at all rise significantly if Minnesota gets to #26 — from 59.9% to over 70%. Since Minny keeping their pick is really the nightmare scenario for us, give me that difference all day over the mild difference between a #5 pick and #6-8 pick.

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I agree with Patrick in that Kuminga's not necessarily a fit on these Warriors. However, you could always trade #5 for a pick a couple later and pick up an asset. Then it becomes how much you (and if it's traded, your trade partner) believe in Minnesota next year.

The biggest issue is while the Dubs might theoretically have enough assets to go all in for a superstar, there aren't any available. This Minny run made the dream of a KAT trade even more unlikely. And one of your assets in Wiseman is likely polarizing around the league.

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Cade, suggs, green, mobley, kuminga it's definitely a five player draft

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My impression is that Kuminga's stock dropped considerably since he can't shoot.

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100% agreed, I would not expect the unprotected pick next year to be an expected 6-8 pick. A bunch of teams in the east will be way below them, and a few in the west as well.

When you add the extra value of getting the pick a year sooner, so (whether they trade or develop a pick) it affects an extra year of Steph, Klay, and Dray's careers, it seems like an obvious no brainer.

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Especially considering that our own pick won't be that bad.

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That's more or less my take as well; the T-Wolves won't be good next year even if they keep their pick, but they won't be a basement dweller either as they showed by beating the Warriors and the Jazz twice. If the T-Wolves grab Jalen Green with a top 3 pick they might well be a playoff team despite not playing defense.

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It's really irritating that we won't sign another 10 day guy because this short rotation is going to exhaust the guys and get someone injured.

That's more what I'm concerned about. I don't even care about where we end up seeding wise because it'll most likely be a quick 1st round exit, but these guys have been basically been playing one-two series' worth of playoff rotations over the last two weeks. Someone is gonna get run into the ground pretty soon, and I have a feeling it's going to be one of Steph, Dray, or Wiggins.

If that happens and we're down a key player for next season, the front office has some 'splaining to do.

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Agree and particularly worried about Looney too.

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Washington has 7 more games to play; Dubs, 6. For Bradley Beal to beat Steph for the NBA scoring title, he has to score 96 more points in his remaining 7 games, than whatever Steph scores in his remaining 6, assuming they both play in all their teams' remaining games. Doable, yes, but, highly-unlikely....

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Steph could have basically salted it away if not for that 1-12 finish last night. :-(

I blame exhaustion (thanks Lacob-Myers!) plus maybe that stupid momentary blackout while he was in the middle of shooting.

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May 5, 2021Liked by Daniel Hardee

Hey, we got the must-have split; almost hit a home-run on a B2B in their court, while they are hitting their inside-outside stride. We know it is going to be tough; nothing more than a body-count, the rest of the way; as expected. The great news is Steph is in MVP form, Dray and Wigs are shining, and, what is left, is giving a max effort. Hope DRAY plays next one; sunk without him. LGW.

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Looking ahead, if Ingram is not out, we could be playing these Pels not once, but, twice, with the 2nd time being the 9-10 play-in game...

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Gosh, such a close game and so frustrating to lose another one with a 4th-quarter collapse like this. Don't know if we could have had another guy signed to a 10-day and clear health & safety protocols in time to actually play on the road trip. I'm guessing the front office thought not, so they didn't bother.

Thing is, almost every spot in the standings from 7-8 is one potential game with home court for the play-in. 9th gets to host 10; 8th either gets into the playoffs or hosts the winner of 9/10; 7th hosts 8th and if they lose, hosts the final play-in game. With the standings as crazy close as they are, this game could mean one less at Chase Center with fans... What do you think, with COVID-19 protocols, does that cost more or less than a 10-day?

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This loss was inevitable once the arena lights turned off while Steph was shooting and broke his calibration for the rest of the game...

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Warriors final six games are all at home:

5/6- vs. Thunder

5/8- vs. Thunder

5/10- vs. Jazz

5/11- vs. Suns

5/14- vs. Pelicans

5/16- vs. Grizzlies

I predict we go W, W, L, L, W, L over that span.

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I think it will be W W L L W W.

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Even if we had won, a 33-year old Stephen Curry playing 37 minutes in the SEGABABA would make this an automatic L. Getting really bad Kobe vibes right now... I don't care about the seed, just let everyone stay healthy.

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May 5, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I wish I had a better explanation why GP2 or GR3 are not on ten days besides our FO mailing it in. Omari Spellman too. But I can’t see a rational alternate explanation. 10 days are like 100 grand. Ridiculous. I’m certainly not interested in paying $450 for a ticket to an FO who is not serious about fielding a team for every game.

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How much is the luxury tax on that $100,000?

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That's a lot of bread for a ticket. S.F. is also an inflated economy. It's been VC'd to death. I couldn't imagine living there anymore, personally.

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Hear hear

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Fitz is a jinx. Wish Kerr would've had Steph rest a little longer. FO still hanging my guys out to dry. Hoping D. Lee and EP are back very soon, if for nothing more than to take up some of these minutes.

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May 5, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I will grade A for Andrew Wiggins and B for Brandon Ingram.

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I think Wiggins has earned his spot on the team. So long, Oubre..............

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I think Oubre is going to look at this as a star crossed season and seek a reset elsewhere. Hopefully he wants to go somewhere that needs a sign and trade to get him.

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From what I understand about the cap and the Warrior financial woes, keeping Oubre will be a very expensive proposition and incur massive luxury tax. We've got 3 allstar players in Steph, Klay, Wiggs, + Green. Add a big up front who has a passing game and the starters are set. Fill the bench with much more wisely considered choices based on real stats and accomplishments, not hope. If Jessup is the real deal, that is one of them and same for GPII. Add JW, Looney, any draft pick, and 4 other support players. Mulder, DLee, Bazemore, Poole, Paschal, Mannion, and JTA must be sorted through. Who survives will determine how good the Warriors will be. Many underachievers in this group. Baze and JTA bring energy and IQ. Neither are perfect, though. Poole is very inconsistent although his scoring is what they are looking for. Would you put your money on Poole? I wouldn't. Paschal may deserve to be traded for his own happiness. He cannot get big minutes with Kerr. Mannion is another ? Forget Mulder and DLee. They are not enough to elevate us. NEW BLOOD NEEDED!

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I think you’re underselling JTA. There’s nothing to sort through with him; he belongs in the rotation next season.

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Where did I undersell him? I think you've misread what I wrote. I like him and he brings energy. He is one of the bench mob that deserves a shot. Warriors must sort out those who don't execute or fit into their system.

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I agree with the gist of your thought train. It’s a bit harsh on D. Lee but seems close enough for the rest. Paschall cost himself any chance at big minutes this season during the covid break by getting out of shape instead of transforming his body. Part of that may have been access.

I just hope they can convince a real passing big to come.

An aside about the true contenders: I’d be curious to see the number of player games lost to Covid protocol per team vs the playoff results.

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It's not necessarily either or. But if we salvaged Wiggins trade value, it's very possible Wiggins + no oubre is worse than trade wiggins + keep oubre. Though personally I don't want to trade him cause the man is so happy here

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I can't see them trading Wiggins. They've invested a lot in him and he has proved worthy. Oubre is the weak link here. He hasn't justified the money the Warriors have invested in him. He's got potential but he doesn't fit into Kerr's system. Why would they invest anymore in him? Move on. We've got options and we will be players in the next two markets. Warriors need to move forward.

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Definitely worse imo. And Wiggins is the guy they'd have to trade if they are trying to bring in a player on a big contract, so doing that after letting Oubre go would be a very bad move imo. Also Wiggins might be at his peak value this offseason (while Oubre might be at his lowest as far as being able to re-sign him for like 15 million a year).

We'll see though, can't make a trade this offseason if no one is available. Gotta find out who bombs in the play-ins/playoffs first.

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Between two I mean.

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I can't help but think a guy like GP2 would have been nice to throw at Lonzo Ball tonight

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