This is the contending version of the team finally being forced to play real minutes. They did what contenders should do over the last few games. What would the narrative have been around this team if they had been playing these lineups as often as they were available from the beginning of the season?
Well, I predicted they could decimate the Thunder if the good version of the team showed up, but I underestimated how bad OKC was. They do have some cool, promising players, but their defense was not remotely ready for Stephen Curry.
Draymond had easy drives to the basket all night. Mulder, Lee, and Poole got easy looks from 3 to put the team up big. Even Looney got some easy lobs. Wiggins left so many layups on the iron, if this one had been close we'd be mad at him for it.
GPII certainly made a case for extending his 10-day contract, at least.
I love how JTA brings an insane level of fierceness to every minute. He sure made sure the players from Oklahoma City will not forget him. Can you believe this guy is technically signed to Santa Cruz? He carries the Oakland with him wherever he goes.
The extended garbage time group (Smiley, Mannion, Poole, Payton, Mulder) did not look good. Some of that is the position tangle, but that was a solid 10 minutes I wish could've gone to guys like JW, EP, or even Quese over a project like the Serbian kid. Seeing Mulder dunk again was cool, but it was actually kind of painful how much difficulty Poole and Mannion had at breaking down the defense and getting quality looks. But, eh, this one was over at halftime and that group had never played together, so it's hard to be too upset. Still can't believe they couldn't score a single 3 in over 7 minutes of game time.
At this point I'm officially worried about what'll happen when Oubre comes back. He's individually good enough that he probably has to play big minutes, but he detracts from the squad surprisingly much when he's out there.
Still, I'm relieved we face the Thunder twice more before the season is over.
It's obviously dumb to ignore the fact that injuries are a major danger this season and Kerr and Steph are making the right choice, but it is kind of true that on a team where they let the star player play for stats, Steph and Klay would both probably have at least one 70 point game, and the 3 point record would likely look a lot more unbreakable.
“And that means that if they go on a hot streak, they might actually catch DAL, which is #10 in the league overall (and #7 in the West). DAL is 29-24, so GSW is only 3 games behind them. If that happens, GSW will lose their 1st round draft pick this year.”
1. We’re going to have to watch conference standing and the standings at talkathon.com.
2. We’ll REALLY want to root for Atlanta, Boston and New York to stay hot and all get into the top 10 to help us stay out of it.
3. Is moving from 9 or 10 seed to 7 or 8 (and only having to win one play-in game) worth losing our own 1st rounder? Probably depends on whether one sees them as a likely 1st round exit or a team with a puncher’s chance.
4. Is moving into 7 seed or better (and thereby avoiding the play-in tournament and into a better 1st round matchup) worth giving up our 1st rounder? That’s definitely an easier pill to swallow and I’d be happy with that outcome, especially if the team is playing like they have been.
Obviously, I hope they move up in the standing as much as possible AND keep the pick, but it’s going to be a tough needle to thread. Go Hawks! Knicks! Celtics!
Bradly Beal has scored 34 and 31 points in his last two games, which slightly bolsters his chance of winning the scoring title. On the other hand, the Wizards have defeated Utah (which doesn't really help us I guess) and Sacramento (which does) in those two games so....
I’m normally not obsessed with scoring titles, but I really want Steph to get this. If Joker is the leading MVP candidate, he seems catchable, especially if Steph keeps going nuts down the stretch...and it appears he’ll have every reason to with so many seeds likely in play until the very end.
My low-key favorite highlight; Fitz and Kelenna talking about how annoying Steph is off the ball the entire time Steph dribbles up the court, through the entire Thunder team, and nails a three. They're not wrong but the juxtaposition is pretty hilarious.
But I think it makes a really strong point; as great as he is with the ball, you expect a tough time trying to stay with any elite scoring ball handler, but then kind of expect them to give you a break when the ball is in someone else’s hands. Curry puts guys on skates all the time, but his off-ball movement makes him an absolutely insane cover. Klay’s a tough assignment off-ball, but you really don’t have to worry about him with the ball.
No, I know, which is why I said they were right. It was just funny hearing them wax poetically about it while he was tearing them up with his ON ball skills :).
It's a really unusual combo of elite off-ball skills AND on-ball skills in the same person that make Steph so unique. Oh, and that shooting. And his underrated passing. And....
My eyes don't seem to be deceiving me. 3 game win streak and the new starting lineup looks like the real deal. Baze is doing all the little things to add value and Loon has impressed me more than he ever has. This lineup works, and it actually looks like they have chemistry!
I also like the way they've subbing. Kerr has found a groove. Still not sold on the consistency of the bench but they did a heck of a job in OKC. I'm too stoked to complain, though. If Poole continues to score in double figures and our 3 point backups continue to put it the basket, we could be a big problem in the playoffs. Draymond actually scoring is one of the keys.
GPII came ready to play. Made some of us look at Mannion with many question marks. Is Jessup a PG or an SG, or a combo? Mannion has energy but reminds me of Ky Bowman. GPII is an immediate defensive upgrade like his dad. He's got the DNA and I remember the battles between Hardaway and GP. It was always something to get excited about. GPII doesn't look to be the scorer that his dad was, but I need to see him much more to get a real evaluation. This was just a taste...............Let's put Cleveland to rest early tomorrow.
That lineup has been consistently good all year. Nice to see them get some run time. D.Lee should have taken up soccer, but he adds a plus player to the reserve unit that’s really helpful.
I agree, but plenty of guys have already pushed the envelope and shown the NBA doesn't really have a system for cracking down on that stuff. There can be a lot of highlights of a guy flopping, even a non superstar like Marcus Smart, and for whatever reason the refs don't seem to wise up over the years... except maybe in the playoffs.
Bowman was on a rookie two-way contract last season and they moved on from him after one year. Mannion is also on a rookie two-way contract.
Are they more invested in Mannion because he was a #48 pick so that they will give him another year? I don't really think he's shown more than Bowman did, personally. Is the difference between #48 pick and undrafted that big? Maybe Mannion is a lights out shooter in practice or something, I don't know.
Especially if they are going to draft 1-2 guys in the top 20, I'm thinking they should use the two-way spots next season on guys in their mid to late 20s (like they did with Lee and JTA) who are more ready to contribute.
Bowman played a lot more, more than twice as many games and almost twice as many minutes per game. Despite being an amazing athlete and doing some incredible things early in the season, he usually looked pretty overmatched when it came to doing anything in the half court offensively. There were so many possessions where he'd dribble around the perimeter a bit, not be able to get an advantage on his defender, and then pass the ball of for someone else to chuck up a contested shot. He was also 2-3 years older than Mannion this year.
I think there’s a consensus that Mannion has a higher ceiling, especially with his court vision and passing. He was considered one of the top high school recruits in the nation before his somewhat-disappointing year at Arizona, so that gives him somewhat of a pedigree.
To me, the question is whether Poole can be enough of ball handler/initiator (especially on the PnR) to be the de facto backup point guard and allow them to have more length and shooting on the floor with him.
Right now: Dubs - 27/53, Mavs - 30/54. So if we win tonight, we will only be two games behind Mavs. From eye check, Mavs havea bit softer schedule than us going forward. So Mavs @ Dubs game on 27th becomes a critical game. Good news for us - it will be SEGABABA for Mavs and we would have been back home from a long road six days ago.
Here is to hoping Kings give Mavs all they can on 26th.
Dream of 7th seed is still alive. It means more rest (during play-ins) - I am looking at you 2-way Wiggs (and Dray and grampa Loon).
ESPN’s RPM may be largely bunk, but as long we’re following Steph’s late season leaderboard assaults, it’s worth noting that he’s closing in on LeBron at #1. No one else in the league is even close. The current top 5:
Last note from me (I promise ;) ); the 20-21 NBA player projection for Steph https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/stephen-curry/ forecast him has "borderline all-star" and an 8.0 WAR (albeit with large error bars). That metric is cumulative so it should be a decent amount higher by the time the season ends.
As far as Steph goes, his box score Raptor component is -2.0, but his on/off component is +1.7. Which makes sense to me, given a lot of the stuff he excels at on defense doesn't show up in the box score.
I'd argue the difference between LeBron and Steph is entirely due to their relative supporting casts. The Lakers are at least competitive without either James or Davis playing. We've seen what happens to the Warriors when Steph doesn't play.
RPM rates Steph as MUCH better offensively. Than anyone else, including LBJ. LBJ is ahead because RPM rates Steph as somewhat negative on defense and LBJ as top 15 (which seems a little dubious to me, but whatever).
It undersells Curry by quite a bit. Curry does a pretty darn good job staying in front of his guy and does a pretty good job of switching, but when he ends up switched onto a big, there is only so much he can do due to the size differential. However, it's never for lack of effort.
If you're watching carefully, Curry also has lapses off-ball. Those definitely count against him. Draymond was subtly encouraging him a little while back when he had a game where he was more attentive, but he still over-helps occasionally.
It's normal for guys to have those sorts of weaknesses sometimes, so he's still a moderately plus defender, but the really elite defenders have fewer of them than Steph.
Holy cow didn’t realize how good across the board everyone is getting at shooting the three in the NBA now. I know Steph is maintaining this at essentially double most people’s volume and with worse spacing, but many of these other top 30 3P% players are no slouch, having made >125 3’s this season so far. Shooting better than 40% is no longer that rare anymore. Imagine if we had more of these floor spacers!
Yeah! Let's try to go find one of those floor spacers for next season! I'm thinking ~6'7", shoots ~42%, good on ball defender. Would also be good if he's chill, and maybe a little goofy, you know a good cultural fit.
yeah i was chekin and there is at least 50 guys with 40. and no other warriors in the top 100!! we havent had good shooters for a while now other than steph and klay....
Hmm the Thunder G-League roster was a nice warmup session. The Warriors took care of business and Steph put on a show for all the paying fans. Tomorrow will show how good the Warriors really are.
Keep the roll going and maybe they can catch the Lakers? They do just as well with second rounders anyway.
Cleveland is hard core. They’re announcing all of the things that will get you ejected and or arrested.
This is the contending version of the team finally being forced to play real minutes. They did what contenders should do over the last few games. What would the narrative have been around this team if they had been playing these lineups as often as they were available from the beginning of the season?
Well, I predicted they could decimate the Thunder if the good version of the team showed up, but I underestimated how bad OKC was. They do have some cool, promising players, but their defense was not remotely ready for Stephen Curry.
Draymond had easy drives to the basket all night. Mulder, Lee, and Poole got easy looks from 3 to put the team up big. Even Looney got some easy lobs. Wiggins left so many layups on the iron, if this one had been close we'd be mad at him for it.
GPII certainly made a case for extending his 10-day contract, at least.
I love how JTA brings an insane level of fierceness to every minute. He sure made sure the players from Oklahoma City will not forget him. Can you believe this guy is technically signed to Santa Cruz? He carries the Oakland with him wherever he goes.
The extended garbage time group (Smiley, Mannion, Poole, Payton, Mulder) did not look good. Some of that is the position tangle, but that was a solid 10 minutes I wish could've gone to guys like JW, EP, or even Quese over a project like the Serbian kid. Seeing Mulder dunk again was cool, but it was actually kind of painful how much difficulty Poole and Mannion had at breaking down the defense and getting quality looks. But, eh, this one was over at halftime and that group had never played together, so it's hard to be too upset. Still can't believe they couldn't score a single 3 in over 7 minutes of game time.
At this point I'm officially worried about what'll happen when Oubre comes back. He's individually good enough that he probably has to play big minutes, but he detracts from the squad surprisingly much when he's out there.
Still, I'm relieved we face the Thunder twice more before the season is over.
A Look at the Warriors’ Playoff Picture - 4/15/21: https://www.nba.com/warriors/news-blogs/warriors-playoffs-positioning-20210415
So now the narrative out there is "Kerr had to stop Steph from chasing the 3pt record". I hate media sometimes.
Seems like more of a headline problem than the couple of articles I checked.
It's obviously dumb to ignore the fact that injuries are a major danger this season and Kerr and Steph are making the right choice, but it is kind of true that on a team where they let the star player play for stats, Steph and Klay would both probably have at least one 70 point game, and the 3 point record would likely look a lot more unbreakable.
Couple of thoughts about this:
“And that means that if they go on a hot streak, they might actually catch DAL, which is #10 in the league overall (and #7 in the West). DAL is 29-24, so GSW is only 3 games behind them. If that happens, GSW will lose their 1st round draft pick this year.”
1. We’re going to have to watch conference standing and the standings at talkathon.com.
2. We’ll REALLY want to root for Atlanta, Boston and New York to stay hot and all get into the top 10 to help us stay out of it.
3. Is moving from 9 or 10 seed to 7 or 8 (and only having to win one play-in game) worth losing our own 1st rounder? Probably depends on whether one sees them as a likely 1st round exit or a team with a puncher’s chance.
4. Is moving into 7 seed or better (and thereby avoiding the play-in tournament and into a better 1st round matchup) worth giving up our 1st rounder? That’s definitely an easier pill to swallow and I’d be happy with that outcome, especially if the team is playing like they have been.
It will be hilarious to see them going into the last game of the season with both playoff seeding and pick keeping on the line...
Obviously, I hope they move up in the standing as much as possible AND keep the pick, but it’s going to be a tough needle to thread. Go Hawks! Knicks! Celtics!
Bradly Beal has scored 34 and 31 points in his last two games, which slightly bolsters his chance of winning the scoring title. On the other hand, the Wizards have defeated Utah (which doesn't really help us I guess) and Sacramento (which does) in those two games so....
If he keeps scoring 34 and 31 and Steph keeps scoring 40+, Steph catches him handily. He’s only behind Beal by .3 PPG.
If Steph scores 48 or more tonight, he passes him. (47 exactly ties him.)
I’m normally not obsessed with scoring titles, but I really want Steph to get this. If Joker is the leading MVP candidate, he seems catchable, especially if Steph keeps going nuts down the stretch...and it appears he’ll have every reason to with so many seeds likely in play until the very end.
MVP won't happen, but a 2nd or 3rd place might. And a scoring title is its own thing.
I think taking the scoring lead makes it harder to ignore Steph from a media narrative standpoint.
My low-key favorite highlight; Fitz and Kelenna talking about how annoying Steph is off the ball the entire time Steph dribbles up the court, through the entire Thunder team, and nails a three. They're not wrong but the juxtaposition is pretty hilarious.
But I think it makes a really strong point; as great as he is with the ball, you expect a tough time trying to stay with any elite scoring ball handler, but then kind of expect them to give you a break when the ball is in someone else’s hands. Curry puts guys on skates all the time, but his off-ball movement makes him an absolutely insane cover. Klay’s a tough assignment off-ball, but you really don’t have to worry about him with the ball.
No, I know, which is why I said they were right. It was just funny hearing them wax poetically about it while he was tearing them up with his ON ball skills :).
It's a really unusual combo of elite off-ball skills AND on-ball skills in the same person that make Steph so unique. Oh, and that shooting. And his underrated passing. And....
...he’s such a likable guy?
My eyes don't seem to be deceiving me. 3 game win streak and the new starting lineup looks like the real deal. Baze is doing all the little things to add value and Loon has impressed me more than he ever has. This lineup works, and it actually looks like they have chemistry!
I also like the way they've subbing. Kerr has found a groove. Still not sold on the consistency of the bench but they did a heck of a job in OKC. I'm too stoked to complain, though. If Poole continues to score in double figures and our 3 point backups continue to put it the basket, we could be a big problem in the playoffs. Draymond actually scoring is one of the keys.
GPII came ready to play. Made some of us look at Mannion with many question marks. Is Jessup a PG or an SG, or a combo? Mannion has energy but reminds me of Ky Bowman. GPII is an immediate defensive upgrade like his dad. He's got the DNA and I remember the battles between Hardaway and GP. It was always something to get excited about. GPII doesn't look to be the scorer that his dad was, but I need to see him much more to get a real evaluation. This was just a taste...............Let's put Cleveland to rest early tomorrow.
That lineup has been consistently good all year. Nice to see them get some run time. D.Lee should have taken up soccer, but he adds a plus player to the reserve unit that’s really helpful.
You mean on account of the flopping?
He’s gotta make sure he doesn’t end up in Neymar territory where it’s so bad he stops getting real calls.
I agree, but plenty of guys have already pushed the envelope and shown the NBA doesn't really have a system for cracking down on that stuff. There can be a lot of highlights of a guy flopping, even a non superstar like Marcus Smart, and for whatever reason the refs don't seem to wise up over the years... except maybe in the playoffs.
Bowman was on a rookie two-way contract last season and they moved on from him after one year. Mannion is also on a rookie two-way contract.
Are they more invested in Mannion because he was a #48 pick so that they will give him another year? I don't really think he's shown more than Bowman did, personally. Is the difference between #48 pick and undrafted that big? Maybe Mannion is a lights out shooter in practice or something, I don't know.
Especially if they are going to draft 1-2 guys in the top 20, I'm thinking they should use the two-way spots next season on guys in their mid to late 20s (like they did with Lee and JTA) who are more ready to contribute.
Mannion hasn't really gotten much burn. ISTR Bowman playing more? I could be wrong.
Bowman played a lot more, more than twice as many games and almost twice as many minutes per game. Despite being an amazing athlete and doing some incredible things early in the season, he usually looked pretty overmatched when it came to doing anything in the half court offensively. There were so many possessions where he'd dribble around the perimeter a bit, not be able to get an advantage on his defender, and then pass the ball of for someone else to chuck up a contested shot. He was also 2-3 years older than Mannion this year.
He was demoted Clippers’ G-League team then got hurt in February and was released.
I think there’s a consensus that Mannion has a higher ceiling, especially with his court vision and passing. He was considered one of the top high school recruits in the nation before his somewhat-disappointing year at Arizona, so that gives him somewhat of a pedigree.
To me, the question is whether Poole can be enough of ball handler/initiator (especially on the PnR) to be the de facto backup point guard and allow them to have more length and shooting on the floor with him.
Jessup’s a 6’-7” wing shooter.
Right now: Dubs - 27/53, Mavs - 30/54. So if we win tonight, we will only be two games behind Mavs. From eye check, Mavs havea bit softer schedule than us going forward. So Mavs @ Dubs game on 27th becomes a critical game. Good news for us - it will be SEGABABA for Mavs and we would have been back home from a long road six days ago.
Here is to hoping Kings give Mavs all they can on 26th.
Dream of 7th seed is still alive. It means more rest (during play-ins) - I am looking at you 2-way Wiggs (and Dray and grampa Loon).
7&8 have the same play in schedule. Does the extra rest come from not having to travel?
Yup.
ESPN’s RPM may be largely bunk, but as long we’re following Steph’s late season leaderboard assaults, it’s worth noting that he’s closing in on LeBron at #1. No one else in the league is even close. The current top 5:
+9.24 LeBron James
+8.81 Steph Curry
+6.81 Paul George
+6.70 Joel Embiid
+6.60 Giannis Antetokounmpo
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm
For comparison, here's RAPTOR, 538's metric: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/
+12.6 Jokic
+8.9 Rudy Gobert
+8.6 Stephen Curry
+8.5 Kawhi Leonard
+7.5 Paul George
Last note from me (I promise ;) ); the 20-21 NBA player projection for Steph https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/stephen-curry/ forecast him has "borderline all-star" and an 8.0 WAR (albeit with large error bars). That metric is cumulative so it should be a decent amount higher by the time the season ends.
As far as Steph goes, his box score Raptor component is -2.0, but his on/off component is +1.7. Which makes sense to me, given a lot of the stuff he excels at on defense doesn't show up in the box score.
(These are WAR not Total Raptor but you can see all of that at the link)
I'd argue the difference between LeBron and Steph is entirely due to their relative supporting casts. The Lakers are at least competitive without either James or Davis playing. We've seen what happens to the Warriors when Steph doesn't play.
RPM rates Steph as MUCH better offensively. Than anyone else, including LBJ. LBJ is ahead because RPM rates Steph as somewhat negative on defense and LBJ as top 15 (which seems a little dubious to me, but whatever).
All defensive metrics are a little bit dubious.
Actually, RPM rates Steph as 459th defensively which seems a LITTLE underselling him on that end :p
It undersells Curry by quite a bit. Curry does a pretty darn good job staying in front of his guy and does a pretty good job of switching, but when he ends up switched onto a big, there is only so much he can do due to the size differential. However, it's never for lack of effort.
If you're watching carefully, Curry also has lapses off-ball. Those definitely count against him. Draymond was subtly encouraging him a little while back when he had a game where he was more attentive, but he still over-helps occasionally.
It's normal for guys to have those sorts of weaknesses sometimes, so he's still a moderately plus defender, but the really elite defenders have fewer of them than Steph.
Sorry, that was sarcasm. I think he's a slight plus defender.
Any system that rates James Harden, who as often as not can't be bothered, as a better defender than Curry has got some problems.
It rates Jokic ORPM as only 5.27..... yeah, it's bunk alright.
Wait, Steph's ORPM is just a smidge under a whopping FOUR POINTS better than #2 (Lillard). Okay... maybe there's something to this RPM after all ;)
Also Steph is #1 in win shares per RPM, by almost two points over LBJ.
After spending basically all season out of the top 20 in three point percentage,Steph showed up at 15th after tonight’s performance.
Holy cow didn’t realize how good across the board everyone is getting at shooting the three in the NBA now. I know Steph is maintaining this at essentially double most people’s volume and with worse spacing, but many of these other top 30 3P% players are no slouch, having made >125 3’s this season so far. Shooting better than 40% is no longer that rare anymore. Imagine if we had more of these floor spacers!
Yeah! Let's try to go find one of those floor spacers for next season! I'm thinking ~6'7", shoots ~42%, good on ball defender. Would also be good if he's chill, and maybe a little goofy, you know a good cultural fit.
Justinian Thompson!
yeah i was chekin and there is at least 50 guys with 40. and no other warriors in the top 100!! we havent had good shooters for a while now other than steph and klay....
Steph has closed to with .3 PPG of catching Beal for the scoring title. IIRC, he was like .9 behind just last week.
Steph is sooooo good, and always worth watching.
Draymond needs to learn to put more backspin on his heater bounce passes. But other than that is a perfect player.
Baze and Looney playing make this team soo good!
JTA needs to burn his extra adrenaline by going full court without hacking.
If Oubre can fit in upon his return, and the coaches don’t reduce Baze or Looney’s minutes too much, this is going to be an awesome stretch.
I’m ready to see them get on a roll!
Hmm the Thunder G-League roster was a nice warmup session. The Warriors took care of business and Steph put on a show for all the paying fans. Tomorrow will show how good the Warriors really are.
Keep the roll going and maybe they can catch the Lakers? They do just as well with second rounders anyway.
1] Jazz - 41-14 - W1
2] Suns - 39-15 - W3
3] Clippers - 39-18 - W7
4] Nuggets - 35-20 - W1
5] Lakers - 34-21 - W1
6] Blazers - 31-23 - L2
7] Mavs - 30-24 - W1
8] Grizzlies - 27-26 - L1 [1 game ahead of Dubs]
9] Dubs - 27-28 - W3
10] Spurs - 26-27 - L1 [even with Dubs]
11] Pelicans - 25-30 - L1 [2 games behind Dubs & Spurs]