2025 Free Agency Day 3: Time goes by so slowly; courting Lillard; Kuminga saga and Horford saga linger on
looney looney
The index for all DNHQ Free Agency Coverage is here.
Table of Contents
Small updates: Kuminga, Horford, Boucher
On Damian Lillard
On Kuminga
On Horford And Boucher
Frequently Asked Questions
When should I be sad about GSW not getting all the free agents?
When should I be MAD about GSW not getting free agents?
Where can I educate myself on various free agents that GSW should pursue?
What are the key dates in the 2024 NBA Free Agency season?
When will we hear news?
Small updates: Lillard, Kuminga, Horford, Boucher
On Damian Lillard
Day 2
Marc Spears on Kuminga and Dame: "I'm hearing the Warriors are still optimistic that they're gonna re-sign him, but if they re-sign him, maybe that's for a sign-and-trade" "Of the many teams that reached out to Damian Lillard, the Warriors were one of those teams"
On Kuminga
Day 2
Since JK struck out in the first round of free agency, his agent is waiting to see if any teams strike out in free agency and get desperate enough to make a bigger offer. If so, GSW threatens to match and tries to work out a sign and trade. If not, my hunch is that it will end up with JK taking $25m/y from GSW.
That gives JK a half season to audition that he can be the star of the future and play alongside Steph / Jimmy. Then GSW shops JK at the deadline.
My “rather” is that some team gives JK a great role and a bunch of money and GSW gets some player(s) who fits better, via a sign and trade this offseason.
Day 2
>>>Both the Warriors and Kuminga's representation were prepared for the 22-year-old forward's restricted free agency to develop slowly, given that the Brooklyn Nets were the only team that entered the market with ample salary cap space to make a bid.
On one hand, then, it is difficult to see where an offer sheet might come from, raising the possibility, league sources say, of Kuminga re-signing with the Warriors on a short-term deal.
On the other hand ... There are four primary teams, sources say, that have to be tracked thanks to varying levels of past and current sign-and-trade interest in Kuminga.
The Miami Heat are an oft-mentioned potential Kuminga suitor and do have a clear need on the wing between All-Star guard Tyler Herro and All-Defensive Team big man Bam Adebayo.
Kuminga would certainly represent a younger, higher-upside target for the Heat. The issue, of course, is the presumed $30 million-per-season price point. That is where Kuminga has been trying to land since the rookie-scale contract extension window that closed in October on the night before the regular season began.
Chicago, New Orleans and Sacramento are three more teams routinely suggested as possible landing spots for Kuminga, but pinpointing significant traction with any of them in these early stages of free agency has been difficult.
The Warriors, though, appear to have moved away from past trade interest they previously registered in veteran Bulls center Nikola Vučević, which might have helped spark something this summer.
I've confirmed that the Pelicans hold an interest in Kuminga, but various team salary cap experts have pointed out to me that New Orleans has no easy route to take Kuminga on its books at his desired contract range.
Sources say that Sacramento, meanwhile, would be interested in including Malik Monk in any outgoing trade package, but nothing substantial has materialized with the Warriors.<<<
Day 1
Anthony Slater: Despite a few conversations between the two sides, the Golden State Warriors have generated no real traction toward a deal with restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga in recent days and, as anticipated, he is expected to explore the market when it opens at 3 p.m. PT on Monday afternoon, league sources told The Athletic. The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls remain the two likeliest outside suitors, league sources said….
If the Warriors use the taxpayer midlevel exception (projected at around $5.7 million) on Horford or another free agent, they’ll be hard-capped at the second apron, currently projected at $207.8 million. The Warriors currently have nine players under contract at $170.5 million. Kuminga’s qualifying offer, extended over the weekend by the Warriors, is $7.9 million, but his cap hold is $22.9 million, further clogging the Warriors’ books if his situation drags deeper into July.
Apricot: I wouldn’t take any new anxiety from this. (Existing anxiety should continue.) JK definitely needs to explore the full FA market and try to get the biggest contract, then that team and GSW try to work out a sign-and-trade. The only way GSW could have avoided this is by offering him a massive extension. The max would have done it. Maaaaybe even a re-offer of the spurned $30m / yr would have done it? But GSW should not be offering anywhere close to that. They also need to have JK explore his market value, for a potential sign and trade.
As for as JK, he does have a certain urgency because the longer he waits, the less cap space teams have to spend and the fewer options there are to make sign-and-trades work. I’m hoping we’ll hear news in the next day or two.
Ramona Shelburne: "From what I understand, the Warriors are not going to give Kuminga up for assets that they don't like in return. They want to keep him unless they get something great back for him. (reddit)
On Horford
Day 2
ServantOfLuna shared: According to McMenamin:
1. Horford as of yesterday was leaning towards joining the Warriors.
2. Warriors appear to be making room for him by letting go of Looney.
3. McMenamin's opinion is that Horford won't go to the Lakers.
Ohm Youngmisuk - "It almost feels like we're in a little bit of a holding pattern. All league sources around the league are telling me they still hear Al Horford's name with the Warriors. They can do that before Kuminga"
Day 1
Anthony Slater: Team sources have identified a stretch center as a high priority. Many in the league continue to link Al Horford to the Warriors as a preferred target.
If the Warriors miss out on Al Horford, who is being pursued by several big-name teams, keep a close eye on Chris Boucher as a cost-effective option. Dubs also still maintain interest in Gary Payton II and De'Anthony Melton. Sit back and relax on Jonathan Kuminga updates.
Frequently Asked Questions
When should I be sad about GSW not getting all the free agents?
Go ahead and be sad right now. It is the right of a fan to have wild feelings.
When should I be MAD about GSW not getting free agents?
GSW can sign free agents with the Taxpayer Midlevel Exception of $5,685,000. If you see a free agent signed by another team for less than that, then you can be mad that GSW didn’t grab them first.
Any free agent above that salary can only be added via sign-and-trade, which would
(1) cap GSW at the first apron so it is not done lightly,
(2) need to be agreed upon by the player (to sign) and both the teams, and
(3) fit the byzantine NBA salary matching rules.
So these deals take time and may not be possible.
If GSW lets one of its own free agents leave, you can stomp your feet since GSW probably were able to match that price. Although that would probably have restricted GSW’s ability to sign other free agents.
Where can I educate myself on various free agents that GSW should pursue?
Check out
What are the key dates in the 2024 NBA Free Agency season?
The Free Agency Moratorium starts June 30. This is supposed to be quiet time but in fact all the free agent signings get announced then.
Day After Last Game of NBA Finals: Each NBA team may begin negotiating with upcoming free agents who finished the just-completed season on its roster.
June 30: Each NBA team may begin negotiating with all other upcoming free agents (beginning at 6 p.m. ET).
July 6: Each NBA team may begin signing free agents to contracts (12:01 p.m. ET).
I always found this calendar to be extremely unhelpful, so let me give you context for how slowly or quickly we might hear by listing the titles of the DNHQ articles from last year. Keep in mind that this year could be different. Things may be unusually slow for GSW because if GSW and Kuminga may be slow to come to agreement and that could stop GSW from signing free agents.
When will we hear news?
Free agency signings will be announced starting Day 1 of the Moratorium period.
For context…
In 2024:
Day 1. We learned: GSW was exploring sign-and-trades for Klay, Chris Paul waived; Paul George was pursued but joins PHI
Day 2. Klay sign-and-trade with DAL confirmed; De’Anthony Melton signs
Day 3. Lauri Markkanen and Buddy Hield targeted; Kyle Anderson signed
Day 5. Buddy Hield signed. Klay sign-and-trade expanded. Markkanen still targeted.
In 2023:
Early on Day 1, Draymond’s re-signing news broke.
Around Day 3, Cory Joseph’s signing news broke.
Around Day 8, Dario Saric’s signing news broke.
In 2021:
Within the first few hours of Day 1, half the Warriors’ free agent targets had already been signed by the Lakers. (Excuse me while I smile and smile about this from the comfort of post 2022 Championship.)
Otto Porter Jr’s signing news came at 9pm of Day 1 (Aug 2 2021)
Nemanja Bjelica’s signing news came around 9:30am of Day 2
Andre Iguodala signing news came Aug 6, after the moratorium.
In THEORY and by rule, the key dates are :
Official start of league year and free agency moratorium when no agreements can be made. Teams can NOT start negotiating with players before. The moratorium gives all teams a chance to meet with any free agent, so it’s not a race.
Free agency moratorium ends. Teams officially can begin signing players and complete trades.
In reality, free agency negotiations are happening at all times, through intermediaries. The league turned a blind eye to this because of the difficulty of enforcement, but teams flouted the rules to ridiculous extents. Regularly, reports would come out on free agency agreements in the first minutes of the moratorium. The league finally had to crack down on MIL for announcing a sign-and-trade within minutes, and MIA and CHI for a complex three person sign-and-trade.
The practical result of this is to expect most free agency signings to be announced starting Day 1 of the moratorium.
These moratorium agreements are not binding of course, but it’s major news if someone backs out of the agreement (for instance the absurdly funny DeAndre Jordan situation in 2015, still my favorite NBA Twitter real-time saga).
Hollinger reminds us that Dame’s next contract is likely to be a minimum. The reason is that any money above the $2m 1-year-vet minimum will be set-off from the money MIL has to pay Dame for the next two years.
Dame for a 2-year minimum contract anyone?
https://bsky.app/profile/johnhollinger.bsky.social/post/3lszjhlzvyk23
I don’t think that trade is going to happen and I don’t particularly want that trade to happen, but I regret to tell you that Devin Carter had fantastic college stats and APRIBOT v1, roughly designed to predict 2024 Dunleavy drafting, thinks Carter was the #3 prospect of 2024. And Clunky Comps thinks Devin Carter is f’ing awesome. So there is a good chance that GSW does value him. Still feeling like that return would be a stunning anti-climax.