If the Warriors do actually sign all these vets and JK the roster is very, very deep. All 13 are legit proven players.
I believe this leaves Kerr with a mad scientist role. He will mix and max to his heart’s content according to matchups and hot hands. He will have a lot of leeway in resting guys and would be smart to limit the old guy’s minutes at every opportunity. I don’t see really consistent minutes.
I think almost everyone has a a really flexible range depending on different factors, but the guys like MM and Podz will play at least x amount every competitive game.
Guys, especially certain guys need to know they are playing a decent amount of minutes every game.
It is a blessing and a curse and Kerr will need to do the best coaching job of his career if we are to be legit contenders.
This team has so many big IF’s it is nuts. This might be the all time IF team. This could also be one of the most fun and interesting teams they have had.
The combined salaries of Steph, Draymond, and Jimmy represent about 82% of the total team salary. That's the reason why there's not much left for everyone else, and the reason why it's hard for the Warriors to find enough to fit what even they might otherwise be willing to pay Kuminga.
We can say that those Big Three players are worth it, they are great players, great legacy, and so on. I'm not here to fight about that.
But do you think that they will be responsible for 82% of the winning this year? Surely the other 11-12 players, *whoever starts or is traded* will contribute a combined effort worth more than 18%.
It's just a part of how things have shaken out. It's the way of NBA contracts and the Warrior dynasty's timing.
I don't blame anyone for maxing Steph, and if they hadn't paid the other two what they paid them, they probably wouldn't be here. But those three earn a ton of salary. We can't just ignore that and get mad at the guys who want some of what's left. It's not reasonable to ignore the largest expenditures in any budget.
I think there is merit to this, but I also think (this is more parallel than a rebuttal):
1. In the NBA you always want a single dollar rather than 4 quarters.
2. With Steph, Jimmy, Dray you KNOW you have a shot at a ring. So from one narrow perspective, everyone else needs to justify their added value above a minimum replacement player, I.e. a gui santos or Pat Spencer from the G-League. Or maybe less theoretically, above a Seth Curry, DeAnthony Melton or GP2.
3. I think the discussion around JK would be a little different if any other team were offering significantly more money. But now it feels like JK’s leverage is that because of the cap he is in position to hurt the team. That feels more extortionish than if his leverage was that the team really wants him.
But, hey it’s all a legit negotiation and most teams screw over their players so…. I’m mostly trying to avoid getting worked up about the dance and hoping this lands in a good place.
It could drag to Oct 1, but training camp starts Sep 30. So in theory, JK has the ability to disrupt the start of camp. In practice, I imagine the disruption will be as much or as little as people have incentive to make it.
Dray's paid around what Kuminga is being offered, so I don't think including him in this convo makes much sense. It's really Steph and Butler. And yes, it's the NBA, and it is what it is.
The Dubs' entire payroll was $71M in 2013 compared to ~$200M last season. Loosely adjusting for inflation, the 2025-equivalent annual numbers would be $33M for Steph, $23M for Klay, $22M for Dray.
The Dray 6th man lineups. Only works if JK and Dray can play together. Bench 2 lineup spacing might suck. Minutes at the bottom are the target regardless of the rotation.
Starters:
Steph/Podz/Butler/Moody/Horford
Bench 1
Steph/Hield/JK/Draymond/Post
Bench 2
Butler/Melton/JK/Draymond/Post
Closing:
Steph/Podz/Butler/Dray/Horford (Could also replace Horford with Moody, run back the lineup that was so good last year)
Minutes, ideally
Curry - 30
Butler - 30
Draymond - 28
Podz - 28
JK - 24
Horford - 24
Post - 24
Moody - 20 (can be more if Dray closes at the 5)
Hield - 16
Melton - 16
But I think GP2 will get threaded in there as well, especially as Melton recovers. TJD, Gui, Seth Curry DNP when the full team is available.
Jimmy, Steph and Draymond are not playing substantially more minutes than they have played the last few years. They are only getting older and need to be more preserved.
I mean we know that eventually he'll start at the 5 lol. Let's deal with reality. We're lucky if Horford can stay healthy enough to hold up for a full season. We also know that Draymond will inevitably start playing more 5 when they need to chase wins. That has always been his best position.
I don't think this is a given. With Jimmy on the roster, the playmaking is covered, and I can see Kerr thinking a 4 out or 5 out lineup is the best way to maximize Steph and keep Dray's minutes down.
In the playoffs ... well, you're probably right. Dray will start unless Horford is just destroying teams with his outside shooting.
Let’s say you’re correct. Whose minutes are you changing from what I had? More for Horford and less for JK? It kind of has to be the result right? Draymond isn’t playing much less than 30 in any scenario where he’s healthy.
That's more work than I want to do. I don't think it's a given Draymond plays the kind of minutes he has. I think there are signs of decline in his defensive game ... more guys are able to beat him.
I've said this before ... I'd be surprised if Draymond isn't on a minutes management plan.
A declining Draymond is still our best defender by far. Unfortunately minutes is a zero sum game. If you want one guy to play less then another guy has to play more. You may not want to answer that question but believe me it’s all Kerr thinks about.
Butler and Green together last season were a fantastic defensive combo who also anchored the best non-Curry unit the Warriors had all season (Podz/Moody/Butler/Green/Post), I don't see the team looking to break that combo up unless it goes very differently this season.
"... If Not Washed" appears far too many times in the proposed lineups for my comfort.
You are putting me in a perilous position.
I am forced to either face the truth or unsubscribe.
PS: Fun fact: If you take Horford, Steph, Draymond, and Jimmy Butler, and ask ChatGPT to add their ages and divide by four to give you an average, it hallucinates
"Two years from now, if you want to keep him, you'll have his Bird rights [even if you give him a player option]," Turner said. "You treat him good and you show him the plan, then maybe you keep him. [The player option contract] is not perfect, but I don't think anybody can get everything they really want. If you ask JK, he wants Jalen Green's deal. He's not getting that. He wants Jalen Johnson's deal. You're not getting that."
The Warriors' front office sweetened the deal so that Kuminga and his agent would faced with leaving $35+ million guaranteed on the table if they took the qualifying offer. If Kuminga wants three years guaranteed, he needs to come down to less than $20 million per season. If he wants two years plus a player option, then he needs to come down to less than $18 million a year. None of the teams that wanted him (but were not willing to give up anything to get him) were willing to give him two years plus a player option at $25 million a year. So why is he demanding higher than market value?
The qualifying offer is not in play, IMHO. If Kuminga leaves $35+ million on the table to take it, his agent should be sued for malpractice.
Jalen Green signed a three year $106 million contract with a player option in the third year. I don't recall exactly what was on the table for Kuminga, but it wasn't that.
Jalen Johnson signed a fully guaranteed 5 year $150 million contract. It wasn't that either.
Honestly, if he could just play a role like Toumani Camara it would be better not only for the team, but arguably for his career earnings. I’m not mad at him for wanting something different, but I do wish he could pursue it on a different team.
Those saying Moody should get more than 10 min a game, you are right. But your comment is more useful if you give an alternative. My sheet gives you a way to try to actually make the numbers work. Which free agent vet that you just recruited are you going to bench?
Without it, saying Moody should play more than 10 min per game is like saying a snubbed player is an All-Star without saying who should be demoted.
One common issue with the mpg distribution exercise is that it needs to take into account games off — an especially relevant consideration with our aging Dubs. Like, none of Steph, Jimmy, Dray, and Big Al should really be playing more than like 65 games. That’s a full 20% of the season’s worth of minutes to distribute, x 4.
So if we look at it as total minutes played divided by 82 (rather than “mpg”) I’d go something like this as a baseline:
This is very very true, but we shouldn’t let it be an escape from the reality that each individual game is a difficult minutes number puzzle.
For instance, before I did the exercise for myself, I didn’t realize I would have to completely bench TJD in order to play Kuminga.
So then to get to 8 MPG, that could mean jerking TJD between DNPs and occasional 16 MPGs. But that means DNPing someone else for those games, and now a lot of people are pissed and not in rhythm. And then people (rightfully) will complain how hard it is for a player to go between those states. Etc.
Gui ends up getting DNPed for the entire season which probably isn't going to happen. Figure in at least 25% of the games there will at least be some garbage time which is the part of the puzzle that nobody really cares about except for the guys trying to prove that they deserve more minutes. Gui actually played 762 minutes last season which is around 9m/game over the 82 game season. It gets even harder when you assume JK will be traded in December for a player that is a better fit unless he goes nuclear.
Yeah, it is tough! And one of the reasons it's hard to be an NBA coach and easy as a fan to criticize.
Like, if the average fan looked individually at the minutes of *every single guy* on my sample list above, they'd likely say, "WTF, these minutes are WAY too low, #FireKerr!!!" And yet, that is literally all the minutes Kerr has to distribute (19,680 total, plus the occasional OT).
The bigger surprise for me was Melton at 0 minutes. (Assuming he's recovered, I'd play him over Seth every chance.) But you did say this was all very rough
Yep, I couldn’t fit Melton in and I justified it to myself by saying he needs to work himself back from injury. But it’s not socially practical either so… maybe Kerr goes 13 deep? But Kerr himself said it’s hard to go more than 10 or players can’t get warm in the game.
It’s amazing how many handwavy lineup plans go out the window when you have to actually pin down the rotations.
I tried to come up with something based on an 11 man rotation with Seth, Gui, and TJD as the deep bench guys who play only in garbage time, rest days, and when injuries strike.
I went unrealistically light on Steph and Dray minutes. I used the same assumed starters as you and put a cheat in the closers of saying that only Jimmy, Steph, and Dray are guaranteed minutes and the other two could come from almost any rotation player (I thought about dq'ing Post and GP2 as one way players). That leaves me with 10 unassigned closing minutes per game.
Result is: Jimmy Steph and Dray 30 minutes (includes closing)
Yay, some healthy GSW rosterbation is what I need in my life right now. Just dropped this in the other thread:
Steph, Podz, Jimmy, JK, Horford
Melton, Buddy, Moody, Dray, QP
Seth, GP2, Gui, Knox, TJD
Richard, Two-Way Toohey
I like that roster, overall.
(Edit: in answer to the specific question in the OP, the closing lineup in a close game is the starting lineup with Dray instead of JK).
Not sure we really need Knox if we have JK and Gui, or if the Ws even have any thought of bringing him back, but I threw him in cos I still like his combo of length and athleticism, and think he could be useful insurance if/when we trade JK.
In the other thread I also noted that I *still* have my candle burning for a TJD-for-GOGA swap. We'd presumably need to throw in a protected pick of some kind to make it happen. We get the much better player — a young guy who can legitimately start against NBA behemoths, and whose toughness and rebounding we really need with Loon gone. Orlando gets needed relief from tax hell. This recent Magic Daily piece suggests that when Mo Wagner returns, a Goga trade makes a lot of sense:
TLDR: much as Orlando loves Goga, he becomes an extremely expensive third string center when Mo returns. On Zach Lowe's latest show he also posited that Orlando should/will experiment more with Paolo at the 5 if they ever want to jumpstart their perennially moribund offense. That makes four guys they can play at C (WCJ, Mo Wagner, Isaac, Banchero), or five if you count TJD. Seems like a pretty solid move for them when you factor in the tens of millions in luxury tax they'd be saving.
Moody should get much more than 10 mins, people are way over indexing on his struggles in the playoffs where he was obviously injured. Hopefully he can play the 3/4 this year as we're seemingly only signing guards (I still don't understand what the point of Seth Curry is on this team where we have Steph, Podz, Buddy, Moody, Melton (presumed), GP2 (presumed) and maybe other guys I'm forgetting) so we need wing depth.
I would give Moody like 30 minutes a night tbh, I think he projects to be one of the top 5-6 players on the team and I think we are well past the point where it is a "who would you play him over" discussion. He averaged 28 minutes a game after Butler joined (regular season), I don't see why that should go down given how great the fit is. He and Podz need to get lots of minutes in the regular season.
There is a case for Melton being very good (if he signs) but there's a better case for Melton needing load management given everything we've seen, I would probably treat him like OPJ and have him closer to 20 MPG max with off nights. Moody should definitely be playing over GP2 (if he signs), Hield, Seth, and I'm sorry but he should be playing over Kuminga as well as he's just a better fit for the team.
I actually think the Warriors should consider a Curry/Moody/Butler/Green/Horford starting lineup and then also play Moody more at the wing spot after they presumably downsize when the subs come in. I think this time last season it was tough to envision Moody starting at the 2 because the team lacked ballhandling/playmaking that Melton and Podz did a better job providing but with Butler on board I don't think it's as much of an issue.
Agree on Seth Curry, not a fan of that presumed signing, can't understand the basketball logic for them choosing him over Brogdon (unless the reports about Warrior interest weren't real with Brogdon), but if Steph insisted on playing with his brother for what is possibly his brother's last season in the NBA, I guess you gotta chalk it up to the Curry Tax.
Yeah, Moody's absolutely a forward on this team — especially if we get Seth, but even without him. GP's effectively a forward in our system as well.
One nice thing about Seth (beyond the obvious sentimental value and elite 3 pt. shooting) is that while he's nobody's idea of a true PG, he can at least handle the ball and pass at an NBA level. I think the general idea is that between him, Steph, Podz, Dray, Jimmy, Horford, Melton, and GP — even though none of them is a "true PG" — we'd have enough steady ballhandling and high-IQ decision-making not to need a pointless backup PG scrub in the grand tradition of Cory Joseph, Chris Chiozza, Brad Wanamaker, et al.
These latest comments by Kuminga's agents are infuriating and almost insulting. At this point I kinda want us to pull the qualifying offer and let him go, this much wasted time for such a thoroughly mediocre player is so unwarranted lol.
Give GP2 the money (10-15 mil, however much we can while staying below the relevant aprons) on a 1 year deal, have him agree to remove the NTC and you have a walking trade exception. It's not like Kuminga has much value anyway (a negative contract in Monk + a lotto protected first is the best offer we got) so we're not losing much. More importantly, we get players who are committed rather than a guy who obviously is not (and really is not nearly good enough to be dictating anything).
IMHO, the Warriors already made Kuminga an offer that he cannot refuse. If he leaves $35+ on the table to take the qualifying offer, his financial IQ is far worse than his basketball IQ.
True, but that works both ways. Michael Corleone was all alone at the end. I find myself wondering how close JK is pushing to Lacob's sunk cost red line.
Ah, but are we saying that Kuminga is Michael, the composed killer?
Maybe Dunleavy is MIchael. Well, he is A Michael, but not that Michael.
And when you say he's alone at the end, are you including the third movie because no way.
...
I've just confused myself thoroughly.
Burned right through to the bottom of the metaphor.
My real thought on all that I posted about yesterday is that the Kuminga-Warrior negotiations seem entirely logical from each side's position. It would be foolish of the Warriors to offer a lot of money, foolish of Kuminga's team to settle for little money, and the point of negotiation is to use one's leverage to find that middle. And wanting to be a featured player is not some foaming-at-the-mouth derangement of Kuminga's, just as the Warriors saying, "we're not sure how well you fit" isn't deranged, either. So, a negotiation. It's not personal. It's business.
JK is Fredo. Wanted to be in charge but was rightfully passed over because he was wholly unfit for the job. I hope Kerr checks the curtains every night!
Aaron Turner's background for his interview with 95.7 is.... JK working out.
That’s almost as funny as the background on Jon Stewart’s latest segment.
Sounds about right.
If the Warriors do actually sign all these vets and JK the roster is very, very deep. All 13 are legit proven players.
I believe this leaves Kerr with a mad scientist role. He will mix and max to his heart’s content according to matchups and hot hands. He will have a lot of leeway in resting guys and would be smart to limit the old guy’s minutes at every opportunity. I don’t see really consistent minutes.
I think almost everyone has a a really flexible range depending on different factors, but the guys like MM and Podz will play at least x amount every competitive game.
Guys, especially certain guys need to know they are playing a decent amount of minutes every game.
It is a blessing and a curse and Kerr will need to do the best coaching job of his career if we are to be legit contenders.
This team has so many big IF’s it is nuts. This might be the all time IF team. This could also be one of the most fun and interesting teams they have had.
The combined salaries of Steph, Draymond, and Jimmy represent about 82% of the total team salary. That's the reason why there's not much left for everyone else, and the reason why it's hard for the Warriors to find enough to fit what even they might otherwise be willing to pay Kuminga.
We can say that those Big Three players are worth it, they are great players, great legacy, and so on. I'm not here to fight about that.
But do you think that they will be responsible for 82% of the winning this year? Surely the other 11-12 players, *whoever starts or is traded* will contribute a combined effort worth more than 18%.
It's just a part of how things have shaken out. It's the way of NBA contracts and the Warrior dynasty's timing.
I don't blame anyone for maxing Steph, and if they hadn't paid the other two what they paid them, they probably wouldn't be here. But those three earn a ton of salary. We can't just ignore that and get mad at the guys who want some of what's left. It's not reasonable to ignore the largest expenditures in any budget.
I think there is merit to this, but I also think (this is more parallel than a rebuttal):
1. In the NBA you always want a single dollar rather than 4 quarters.
2. With Steph, Jimmy, Dray you KNOW you have a shot at a ring. So from one narrow perspective, everyone else needs to justify their added value above a minimum replacement player, I.e. a gui santos or Pat Spencer from the G-League. Or maybe less theoretically, above a Seth Curry, DeAnthony Melton or GP2.
3. I think the discussion around JK would be a little different if any other team were offering significantly more money. But now it feels like JK’s leverage is that because of the cap he is in position to hurt the team. That feels more extortionish than if his leverage was that the team really wants him.
But, hey it’s all a legit negotiation and most teams screw over their players so…. I’m mostly trying to avoid getting worked up about the dance and hoping this lands in a good place.
Less than two weeks till this dance ends, at least… right?
It could drag to Oct 1, but training camp starts Sep 30. So in theory, JK has the ability to disrupt the start of camp. In practice, I imagine the disruption will be as much or as little as people have incentive to make it.
Dray's paid around what Kuminga is being offered, so I don't think including him in this convo makes much sense. It's really Steph and Butler. And yes, it's the NBA, and it is what it is.
Aaron Turner's Latest Counter Offer --
Jonathan Kuminga 40
Stephen Curry 30
Jimmy Butler III 25
Draymond Green 20
Moses Moody 20
Buddy Hield 20
Brandin Podziemski 20
Al Horford 20
Quinten Post 20
Seth Curry 10
De'Anthony Melton 10
Gary Payton II 5
Steph Curry was paid 11 million per year for his rookie extension in 2013.
Klay was paid 17 million per year for his rookie extension in 2015
Draymond was paid 5/82 for his second contract with the Warriors in 2015.
I don't think the Warriors are going to budge on the JK offer.
The Dubs' entire payroll was $71M in 2013 compared to ~$200M last season. Loosely adjusting for inflation, the 2025-equivalent annual numbers would be $33M for Steph, $23M for Klay, $22M for Dray.
Yeah that makes sense.
The Dray 6th man lineups. Only works if JK and Dray can play together. Bench 2 lineup spacing might suck. Minutes at the bottom are the target regardless of the rotation.
Starters:
Steph/Podz/Butler/Moody/Horford
Bench 1
Steph/Hield/JK/Draymond/Post
Bench 2
Butler/Melton/JK/Draymond/Post
Closing:
Steph/Podz/Butler/Dray/Horford (Could also replace Horford with Moody, run back the lineup that was so good last year)
Minutes, ideally
Curry - 30
Butler - 30
Draymond - 28
Podz - 28
JK - 24
Horford - 24
Post - 24
Moody - 20 (can be more if Dray closes at the 5)
Hield - 16
Melton - 16
But I think GP2 will get threaded in there as well, especially as Melton recovers. TJD, Gui, Seth Curry DNP when the full team is available.
I feel like Aaron Turner has been a bad influence on JK.
He is also Kevin Knox II agent.
This is 239 minutes but close enough:
Jimmy 33
Steph 32
Podz 30
Draymond 29
Moody 25
Horford 20
Buddy 20
Melton 15
JK 15
Post 10
GPII 10
Jimmy, Steph and Draymond are not playing substantially more minutes than they have played the last few years. They are only getting older and need to be more preserved.
This leaves 18 mpg with Dray at the 5. Feels too much.
I mean we know that eventually he'll start at the 5 lol. Let's deal with reality. We're lucky if Horford can stay healthy enough to hold up for a full season. We also know that Draymond will inevitably start playing more 5 when they need to chase wins. That has always been his best position.
I don't think this is a given. With Jimmy on the roster, the playmaking is covered, and I can see Kerr thinking a 4 out or 5 out lineup is the best way to maximize Steph and keep Dray's minutes down.
In the playoffs ... well, you're probably right. Dray will start unless Horford is just destroying teams with his outside shooting.
Let’s say you’re correct. Whose minutes are you changing from what I had? More for Horford and less for JK? It kind of has to be the result right? Draymond isn’t playing much less than 30 in any scenario where he’s healthy.
That's more work than I want to do. I don't think it's a given Draymond plays the kind of minutes he has. I think there are signs of decline in his defensive game ... more guys are able to beat him.
I've said this before ... I'd be surprised if Draymond isn't on a minutes management plan.
A declining Draymond is still our best defender by far. Unfortunately minutes is a zero sum game. If you want one guy to play less then another guy has to play more. You may not want to answer that question but believe me it’s all Kerr thinks about.
Butler and Green together last season were a fantastic defensive combo who also anchored the best non-Curry unit the Warriors had all season (Podz/Moody/Butler/Green/Post), I don't see the team looking to break that combo up unless it goes very differently this season.
"... If Not Washed" appears far too many times in the proposed lineups for my comfort.
You are putting me in a perilous position.
I am forced to either face the truth or unsubscribe.
PS: Fun fact: If you take Horford, Steph, Draymond, and Jimmy Butler, and ask ChatGPT to add their ages and divide by four to give you an average, it hallucinates
"Two years from now, if you want to keep him, you'll have his Bird rights [even if you give him a player option]," Turner said. "You treat him good and you show him the plan, then maybe you keep him. [The player option contract] is not perfect, but I don't think anybody can get everything they really want. If you ask JK, he wants Jalen Green's deal. He's not getting that. He wants Jalen Johnson's deal. You're not getting that."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/46310583/agent-kuminga-wants-player-option-take-qualifying-offer
Bizarre public statement
The Warriors' front office sweetened the deal so that Kuminga and his agent would faced with leaving $35+ million guaranteed on the table if they took the qualifying offer. If Kuminga wants three years guaranteed, he needs to come down to less than $20 million per season. If he wants two years plus a player option, then he needs to come down to less than $18 million a year. None of the teams that wanted him (but were not willing to give up anything to get him) were willing to give him two years plus a player option at $25 million a year. So why is he demanding higher than market value?
The qualifying offer is not in play, IMHO. If Kuminga leaves $35+ million on the table to take it, his agent should be sued for malpractice.
This seems on par with what Klay signed for in his rookie extension deal. Klay's was 4/68 so a longer deal though. No player options.
Also, you dumbasses could have had a Jalen Green/Jalen Johnson type deal last summer but you were greedy.
Jalen Green signed a three year $106 million contract with a player option in the third year. I don't recall exactly what was on the table for Kuminga, but it wasn't that.
Jalen Johnson signed a fully guaranteed 5 year $150 million contract. It wasn't that either.
Media have mentioned 4-5 year deals with APV of 25-30 million. It's definitely in the same ballpark.
Haven’t seen anything over three years/$30 mil, link em if ya got em.
I wish JK were more of a Jalen Johnson type player (and less of a Jalen Green one). ☹️
Honestly, if he could just play a role like Toumani Camara it would be better not only for the team, but arguably for his career earnings. I’m not mad at him for wanting something different, but I do wish he could pursue it on a different team.
Those saying Moody should get more than 10 min a game, you are right. But your comment is more useful if you give an alternative. My sheet gives you a way to try to actually make the numbers work. Which free agent vet that you just recruited are you going to bench?
Without it, saying Moody should play more than 10 min per game is like saying a snubbed player is an All-Star without saying who should be demoted.
I would give him Seth's minutes probably
One common issue with the mpg distribution exercise is that it needs to take into account games off — an especially relevant consideration with our aging Dubs. Like, none of Steph, Jimmy, Dray, and Big Al should really be playing more than like 65 games. That’s a full 20% of the season’s worth of minutes to distribute, x 4.
So if we look at it as total minutes played divided by 82 (rather than “mpg”) I’d go something like this as a baseline:
Podz 28
Steph 25
Jimmy 25
Dray 20
Moody 20
Kuminga 20
Horford 16
Buddy 16
Post 16
Melton 14
Gui 8
Seth 8
Payton 8
TJD 8
Knox/Other 8
====
240, I think
This is very very true, but we shouldn’t let it be an escape from the reality that each individual game is a difficult minutes number puzzle.
For instance, before I did the exercise for myself, I didn’t realize I would have to completely bench TJD in order to play Kuminga.
So then to get to 8 MPG, that could mean jerking TJD between DNPs and occasional 16 MPGs. But that means DNPing someone else for those games, and now a lot of people are pissed and not in rhythm. And then people (rightfully) will complain how hard it is for a player to go between those states. Etc.
So suddenly, the only 9 players on the roster Warriors' biggest problem is too MUCH depth!
Gui ends up getting DNPed for the entire season which probably isn't going to happen. Figure in at least 25% of the games there will at least be some garbage time which is the part of the puzzle that nobody really cares about except for the guys trying to prove that they deserve more minutes. Gui actually played 762 minutes last season which is around 9m/game over the 82 game season. It gets even harder when you assume JK will be traded in December for a player that is a better fit unless he goes nuclear.
Yeah, it is tough! And one of the reasons it's hard to be an NBA coach and easy as a fan to criticize.
Like, if the average fan looked individually at the minutes of *every single guy* on my sample list above, they'd likely say, "WTF, these minutes are WAY too low, #FireKerr!!!" And yet, that is literally all the minutes Kerr has to distribute (19,680 total, plus the occasional OT).
The bigger surprise for me was Melton at 0 minutes. (Assuming he's recovered, I'd play him over Seth every chance.) But you did say this was all very rough
Yep, I couldn’t fit Melton in and I justified it to myself by saying he needs to work himself back from injury. But it’s not socially practical either so… maybe Kerr goes 13 deep? But Kerr himself said it’s hard to go more than 10 or players can’t get warm in the game.
It’s amazing how many handwavy lineup plans go out the window when you have to actually pin down the rotations.
I tried to come up with something based on an 11 man rotation with Seth, Gui, and TJD as the deep bench guys who play only in garbage time, rest days, and when injuries strike.
I went unrealistically light on Steph and Dray minutes. I used the same assumed starters as you and put a cheat in the closers of saying that only Jimmy, Steph, and Dray are guaranteed minutes and the other two could come from almost any rotation player (I thought about dq'ing Post and GP2 as one way players). That leaves me with 10 unassigned closing minutes per game.
Result is: Jimmy Steph and Dray 30 minutes (includes closing)
JK and BP 22
Horford and Buddy 20
Moses, Melton, and Post 16
GP2 8
"What kind of lineups are you imagining for next season?"
Winning Ones! 😉😇🏀🏆
Yay, some healthy GSW rosterbation is what I need in my life right now. Just dropped this in the other thread:
Steph, Podz, Jimmy, JK, Horford
Melton, Buddy, Moody, Dray, QP
Seth, GP2, Gui, Knox, TJD
Richard, Two-Way Toohey
I like that roster, overall.
(Edit: in answer to the specific question in the OP, the closing lineup in a close game is the starting lineup with Dray instead of JK).
Not sure we really need Knox if we have JK and Gui, or if the Ws even have any thought of bringing him back, but I threw him in cos I still like his combo of length and athleticism, and think he could be useful insurance if/when we trade JK.
In the other thread I also noted that I *still* have my candle burning for a TJD-for-GOGA swap. We'd presumably need to throw in a protected pick of some kind to make it happen. We get the much better player — a young guy who can legitimately start against NBA behemoths, and whose toughness and rebounding we really need with Loon gone. Orlando gets needed relief from tax hell. This recent Magic Daily piece suggests that when Mo Wagner returns, a Goga trade makes a lot of sense:
https://orlandomagicdaily.com/goga-bitadzes-future-orlando-magic-crystal-clear
TLDR: much as Orlando loves Goga, he becomes an extremely expensive third string center when Mo returns. On Zach Lowe's latest show he also posited that Orlando should/will experiment more with Paolo at the 5 if they ever want to jumpstart their perennially moribund offense. That makes four guys they can play at C (WCJ, Mo Wagner, Isaac, Banchero), or five if you count TJD. Seems like a pretty solid move for them when you factor in the tens of millions in luxury tax they'd be saving.
Get Zaza on the case, MDJ!
Joga><Goga
Moody should get much more than 10 mins, people are way over indexing on his struggles in the playoffs where he was obviously injured. Hopefully he can play the 3/4 this year as we're seemingly only signing guards (I still don't understand what the point of Seth Curry is on this team where we have Steph, Podz, Buddy, Moody, Melton (presumed), GP2 (presumed) and maybe other guys I'm forgetting) so we need wing depth.
I would give Moody like 30 minutes a night tbh, I think he projects to be one of the top 5-6 players on the team and I think we are well past the point where it is a "who would you play him over" discussion. He averaged 28 minutes a game after Butler joined (regular season), I don't see why that should go down given how great the fit is. He and Podz need to get lots of minutes in the regular season.
There is a case for Melton being very good (if he signs) but there's a better case for Melton needing load management given everything we've seen, I would probably treat him like OPJ and have him closer to 20 MPG max with off nights. Moody should definitely be playing over GP2 (if he signs), Hield, Seth, and I'm sorry but he should be playing over Kuminga as well as he's just a better fit for the team.
I actually think the Warriors should consider a Curry/Moody/Butler/Green/Horford starting lineup and then also play Moody more at the wing spot after they presumably downsize when the subs come in. I think this time last season it was tough to envision Moody starting at the 2 because the team lacked ballhandling/playmaking that Melton and Podz did a better job providing but with Butler on board I don't think it's as much of an issue.
Agree on Seth Curry, not a fan of that presumed signing, can't understand the basketball logic for them choosing him over Brogdon (unless the reports about Warrior interest weren't real with Brogdon), but if Steph insisted on playing with his brother for what is possibly his brother's last season in the NBA, I guess you gotta chalk it up to the Curry Tax.
> Curry/Moody/Butler/Green/Horford
Gotta say, I really like this lineup on paper. Hope we get to see it in practice.
Yeah, Moody's absolutely a forward on this team — especially if we get Seth, but even without him. GP's effectively a forward in our system as well.
One nice thing about Seth (beyond the obvious sentimental value and elite 3 pt. shooting) is that while he's nobody's idea of a true PG, he can at least handle the ball and pass at an NBA level. I think the general idea is that between him, Steph, Podz, Dray, Jimmy, Horford, Melton, and GP — even though none of them is a "true PG" — we'd have enough steady ballhandling and high-IQ decision-making not to need a pointless backup PG scrub in the grand tradition of Cory Joseph, Chris Chiozza, Brad Wanamaker, et al.
But can he play lacrosse?
These latest comments by Kuminga's agents are infuriating and almost insulting. At this point I kinda want us to pull the qualifying offer and let him go, this much wasted time for such a thoroughly mediocre player is so unwarranted lol.
Give GP2 the money (10-15 mil, however much we can while staying below the relevant aprons) on a 1 year deal, have him agree to remove the NTC and you have a walking trade exception. It's not like Kuminga has much value anyway (a negative contract in Monk + a lotto protected first is the best offer we got) so we're not losing much. More importantly, we get players who are committed rather than a guy who obviously is not (and really is not nearly good enough to be dictating anything).
"It's not personal, Sonny. It's strictly business." -- Michael Corleone.
IMHO, the Warriors already made Kuminga an offer that he cannot refuse. If he leaves $35+ on the table to take the qualifying offer, his financial IQ is far worse than his basketball IQ.
True, but that works both ways. Michael Corleone was all alone at the end. I find myself wondering how close JK is pushing to Lacob's sunk cost red line.
Ah, but are we saying that Kuminga is Michael, the composed killer?
Maybe Dunleavy is MIchael. Well, he is A Michael, but not that Michael.
And when you say he's alone at the end, are you including the third movie because no way.
...
I've just confused myself thoroughly.
Burned right through to the bottom of the metaphor.
My real thought on all that I posted about yesterday is that the Kuminga-Warrior negotiations seem entirely logical from each side's position. It would be foolish of the Warriors to offer a lot of money, foolish of Kuminga's team to settle for little money, and the point of negotiation is to use one's leverage to find that middle. And wanting to be a featured player is not some foaming-at-the-mouth derangement of Kuminga's, just as the Warriors saying, "we're not sure how well you fit" isn't deranged, either. So, a negotiation. It's not personal. It's business.
JK is Fredo. Wanted to be in charge but was rightfully passed over because he was wholly unfit for the job. I hope Kerr checks the curtains every night!
We're all Fredo
I can handle things! I'm smart! Not like everybody says... like dumb... I'm smart and I want respect!
"Fredo, you're my brother and I love you, but If you ever take sides against the family in public again, I'll kill you."
You lost me at "based in reality,"