Perks with a G-League update, including the welcome news that SCW acquired Marques Bolden.
@gswcba.bsky.social: [[ Santa Cruz Warriors acquired the rights to Marques Bolden yesterday, who participated in the past two Summer Leagues with GSW and has made a great impression on their staff.
He spent all of last season rehabbing a torn Achilles.
Bolden projects as their Opening Night center.
Warriors do not need to sign him for training camp since they already have his GL rights, but don't be surprised if he gets shuffled in and out of their training camp roster on an Exhibit 10 to make him eligible for the bonus.
He also has one year of two-way eligibility left.
Warriors were previously reported to have reached E10 agreements with LJ Cryer (G), Chance McMillian (G), and Coleman Hawkins (C).
Those three with Moni would take up SCW's four affiliate spots and build out half their roster, along with returning rights player, Marques Bolden.
The Warriors are bringing in 6'10 C Jacksen Moni to Santa Cruz on what should be an Exhibit 10.
Moni, a floor-spacing & facilitating big man, played for the Spurs in Summer League after going undrafted.
Last season at NDSU, he posted: 20.6ppg, 5.6rpg, 3.7apg on .508/.408/.837.
Jacksen Moni at 22-years-old is an interesting developmental prospect and great system fit with his outside range (37% on 657 3PA in college) and ability to find cutters and open shooters.
Santa Cruz projects with a very versatile frontcourt in Moni, Hawkins, Bolden, and Toohey.
[[ The math is a little too convoluted to make it realistic.
Acquiring an FA in a S&T hard caps a team at the first apron, so both get hardcapped and the Warriors would have to send out additional salary (Hield or Moody) to fit the roster together.
Plus double BYC makes trade matching more difficult. ]]
Fascinating that so much has happened for the past 2+ months with the Valks, while the Warriors haven't signed anyone. Hopefully JK makes a decision so we can break the Dubs summer boredom.
Was Podz at the game last night? I didn't see him on the league pass coverage.
I wonder how this situation is going to play out the closer it gets to training camp. Yes, they still have some time left and they already have handshake deals but it's going to be important to make it official so they can the new guys like Horford and even Melton in the building
Without knowing much I would be concerned if the team tried to reduce Draymond's defensive role. That is his biggest asset and contribution to the team.
Yes, he does help facilitate the offense and sometimes can be a very effective rebounder, but I think his overall team defense is something that can not be duplicated by others, including Horford.
Less minutes and more rest games as Sleepy mentioned below could be very important, if coaching can coordinate that with the team's overall play to ensure victories. That has been very difficult to do over the years from my observations. Hope for the best!
That whole piece sounds vaguely like it was written by ChatGPT, right down to the fact that there’s a related article titled “Warriors have made their stance on Pat Spencer crystal clear.”
Are we sure “G.C. Bellchamber” is an actual person?
If you’ve ever seen the clips of Payton mic’d up during a game, it’s quite appropriate. Dude is nonstop with whoever’s nearby; be it teammates, opponents, officials, coaches and fans. He’s hilarious.
Top 5 Steph plays: 1. Nets mid court turnaround fadeaway 2. Phoenix behind the back floater with the KD dap. 3. Stupid step back against Jalen Green, game 1 of the playoffs. 4. Dagger against Lively in the home NBA Cup with the far too early Night Night. 5. Insta release 3 over outstretched LeBron from the right wing to tie or take lead against the Lakers.
Steph's drive against Jovic of the Heat where he completely turned him around before making the layup was a classic.
For important plays, how about either Steph's crazy behind-the-head pass against the Rockets in Game 7 for a Buddy corner three, or a few minutes later in the same game, Buddy's halfcourt buzzer beater to end the first quarter.
Listening to The Ringer Group Chat podcast, and Mahoney is advocating Malik Monk just to give the Dubs some scoring depth to survive the regular season.
>>> 2. Have done some work in the offseason that makes him better.
I’d have more faith in this theory if we’d seen more of it in past offseasons. His handles, 3-ball and rebounding haven’t improved all that much despite all the workout clips.
I have definitely been critical of JK many times but he has improved his skill level a lot.
He was so raw when he was drafted and it certainly looked like to me at least, that he had not had the benefit of great coaching.
It takes time and he is still very young.
It will be interesting to see how hard he worked this offseason to improve.
I also believe people don’t like his I want to be Kobe stuff and unfairly downgrade most of what he does.
His passing has improved. He is not a bad rebounder but obviously could be better. His handle and mid range have gotten much better from his rookie year.
I remember when guys like MJ could actually play 3 or 4 years in college vs very good competition and develop their skills and understanding of the game vs being thrust into playing for an NBA championship long before they have any reasonable chance to be ready, magnified here by the unique Curry ball.
I think his handle is considerably better. Not where it needs to be, but he's far from being the guy who used to dribble it twice and then stop when any defender was close.
“Shot creation” has limited value when you’re well below league average efficiency, as Monk has been his last two seasons (.564 and .549 TS).
Career scoring per 36: JK 20.5 pts on .583 TS, Monk 19.5 pts on .555 TS.
Throw in Monk’s cruddy D and the fact that another 6-3 wing (on top of Steph, Podz, Melton, GP, and maybe Seth?) would make the whole rotation unsustainably small, and I’d much rather take my chances with our 6’-7” super-athlete making the leap at age 23, flawed and disgruntled as he may be.
Kuminga and many other Warriors have benefitted from the Curry Boost though, for his career he is at 56% TS with Curry off the floor (60% with Curry on the floor). Last season which I would assume people would agree was the most Kuminga has been featured offensively, he was at 50% TS with Curry off the floor because I think it's tough to scale up as a scorer if you have issues with dribbling/passing/shooting. If Monk was on the Warriors, he and his TS% would also benefit from the Curry Boost.
Not that I think the trade makes sense for the Warriors. They'd either have to attach an asset to get off Hield's contract or get rid of Moody, plus they'd be taking on longer term money which they don't seem interested in.
Totally reasonable. I’m sort of agnostic about this (or, I would be if it didn’t mean losing Buddy—that detail probably makes it a ’no’ for me too), but just playing Devil’s advocate:
One slightly different way to frame the “shot creation” thing would be in terms of ‘dependent' vs. ‘independent' offensive players. JK (barring a massive improvement in his handle) is a far more dependent offensive player than Monk. He’s a mouth to feed, and the only two guys on the current roster who can reliably feed him are Steph and Jimmy—the precise players from whom we’re wanting to relieve some offensive burden. Monk has major downside, but the upside is something approaching 2022 Jordan Poole: a hedge against that late-season Curry injury, and a key part of getting him to Games 4, 5, and 6 of the Finals in peak condition.
Edit: Or, a starker way to think of it: Getting any relief for Steph is almost inevitably going to make the Warriors slightly worse, since even an overburdened Curry is better than anyone we can acquire to take up the slack. So the question to ask about a trade of this kind might not be, “Does this make us better?” but “Is this an adequate hedge against late-season exhaustion and injury.” Not sure what the answer is here, but it’s arguably in the ballpark.
That's pretty similar to what Rob Mahoney was saying on the podcast - the Warriors just don't have anyone who can put up 20 points on their own who isn't hella old.
Haha, okay, he is overrated by some. But not wildly so, imo.
Like, popular opinion seems to be that he doesn’t rebound, can’t shoot, and doesn’t pass, when he’s actually a pretty good rebounder (6.6 per 36, career) and efficient scorer (.583 TS on high volume) with decent passing skills for a guy of his age and position (2.9 ast/36).
yeah it's tough to say cause he could either be a breakout star next year or he could regress even further... Schrodinger's superstar -- he's somehow both overrated and underrated simultaneously.
Yeah, I don't necessarily endorse this take, but I had been thinking more about the playoffs than about regular season survival in the west when considering JK trades.
“We’ve played together for 10-plus years,” Fournier said about France’s cohesive team dynamic leading up to its matchup against Team USA with gold on the line.
And Durant responded, “That chemistry going to help you when you got to guard Steph?”
Watching KD and LeBron defer to Steph in crunch time speaks volumes about his reputation among the game's elites
A lot of players and coaches have commented on how fun it was to be on Steph's side for once. Always fun to see an (otherwise) opposing player fanning just like us.
I also love how players in these discussions just accept that he’s special…in a world where idiots in comments sections still want to say he’s overrated.
I’ve been trying to avoid talking about JK unless directly asked, but I can’t resist this. Monte Poole’s latest calls JK “a terrific scoring soloist” and many other think pieces about JK take for granted a similar idea that JK is a great iso player but Kerr hates iso.
I can’t predict if JK will *become* a terrific isolation player, but if he was terrific now, then there would be no problem and he’d be paid and get minutes.
Let’s look at his stats from his most shining moment, these playoffs — when he was allowed to play. The NBA tracks how many points per possession you score on isolation.
JK is #34 out of 44 qualifying players. On GSW alone he is behind
#5 Steph
#17 Buddy(?!)
#28 Jimmy
One statistic is not a proof. But I have not seen evidence (statistical or close film watch) that JK is terrific at isolation yet. At this point, the burden is on the claimer to prove that JK is a plus isolation player.
Maybe and maybe. That’s two of the last three years that JK was below average at iso (including last year WAY below average), so that returns to my point that as of right now, he’s not good at isolation.
Here are two responses, the second nuanced and the first not:
1. I can't remember ever thinking something coming from Monte Poole was insightful; probably correct on occasion, but then so is a broken clock.
2. Kuminga has had a lot of ups and downs. Again Minn. he did a very good job as an ISO scorer (but not good enough). He is frequently horrible in the first half and effective in the second. He frequently is less effective when coming back from injury (physical or emotional from Kerr benching). So I think there are stretches where he is (and is not) effective. Another example is that his midrange was 'on' two years ago but horrible at the start last year and then improved to middling. Finally, I think his numbers are also affected by who he plays with and those non-scorers giving him the ball with <7 seconds on the clock.
As you said, single stat doesn't tell it all, and as others have also said, Monte Poole rarely tells us anything of value.
I think the eye test supports this. His isolation scoring is not all that impressive. Maybe he’ll get there one day, but a lot has to happen before he does.
Totally agree on this. I keep wanting JK to be a terrific iso player. I see the tools - the elite footspeed and athleticism. He should be a good iso player. He can elevate and shoot mid-range jumpers anytime he wants. His problems are: his mid-range jump-shot accuracy is average. It's not like SGA or Jalen Williams or Kawhi, where the mid-range jumper off the bounce has great accuracy.
JK can draw fouls, but his free throw accuracy is mediocre. When he drives, his handles are shaky and help-defenders can poke the ball away. There are also times when he forces drives seeking fouls instead of just trying to finish at the rim. When the refs don't call it, he's slow to get back on D, and it's a 5 on 4 on the other end.
In the big picture = so far, JK's iso's haven't been very efficient. But he's still very young. There's a chance his mid-range jumper and FT accuracy improves.
It reminds me of that scene in Moneyball where all the scouts are talking about how a player has a great looking swing despite not actually being a good hitter. JK looks like a traditionally good ISO scorer with how he plays, but that doesnt mean you are one
More interesting to me is that Butler ranks so low.
Admittedly, he was hurt, but yikes. $50+ mil for a guy who can't get an iso bucket is a bit much.
It's probably too small a sample size to say much, but something to watch for next season. I was always skeptical of the Jimmy Buckets stuff (not that it happened, just that he's too old to be that guy now).
Butler is a great isolation player, 86th percentile this past season for the Warriors on 2.5 possessions a game, and 76th percentile this past season for the Heat on 1.8 possessions a game. And he is doing it with a second unit that is built almost entirely around him isolating, not just opportunistically hunting mismatches.
The playoffs come down to whether you believe he wasn't compromised by the back injury that had him visibly runing incorrectly after he came back and whether you believe anyone other than like Steph Curry could have succeeded in the conditions he was in against Minnesota (going against McDaniels with Gobert on the inside with multiple non-shooters/non-scorers surrounding him at all times). Because up until the exact moment where he got hurt, including the Clipper game and play-in game and Game 1 of the playoffs, he was dominating.
To me JB looked to pass too much and looked reluctant to score too often.
The end of season stats after getting JB are a bit misleading because the Warriors were in full out desperation playoff mode and they played an easy schedule.
I think we will be much better if we have 2 stretch 5’s and a healthy Melton.
Butler’s playoff stats are a concern. However, he was quite injured and probably should not have played. Looking at a larger sample, during the regular season Jimmy was #37 of 277 and JK was #235 in ISO points per possession.
I am intentionally ignoring the issue of passing, since the original investigation was whether JK is a terrific iso scorer.
However, last season Butler averaged 6.5 AST/36 , JK averaged 3.3 AST/36. I think it’s obvious that as a straight swap, JB isolations are much better for GSW than JK isolations.
None of this is to dispute JK’s potential, it’s to dispute how much potential has already been achieved.
The passing is already priced into your effectiveness as a scorer, no? If you cant consistently beat help defenders, you're presumably turning it over more and/or taking worse shots, which would reduce your PPP in isolation
It’s an interesting thesis. The second sentence makes sense, but I don’t see how that implies anything about your ability to pass well and read the defense, so I also don’t see how it implies the first sentence…?
I was just going with the idea that passing and scoring is so intertwined these days that Kuminga's effectiveness as an isolation scorer will always involve his passing limitations (in reference to you noting you were looking to look past his passing and focus solely on investigating his iso scoring).
Maybe could have worded my last post a little clearer
The 'built around Steph without Steph' is not going to change. He's supposed to be the guy if Steph can't go.
I actually think the 'grinding schedule' thing is just the way it is, TBH. We're not a top-half-of-the-bracket team anymore. Given the core's age, it's not being overly negative to predict plenty of lost RS games from the core. Plus, he didn't play a quarter of the season due to the holdout (23 games). So, I'm not sure you can predict a bounce-back due to that, either.
If Steph really can't go as in can't play at all we're screwed anyway. If you're talking filling in for some absences here or there in the regular season, sure, but that's again a different thing.
Small sample size but we did see the team struggle with Jimmy and without Steph in the regular season those few games Steph had to sit out. I expect that will be a focus of the coaching staff to leverage the full offseason and preseason to work on better exploiting Jimmy rather than just throwing him in on the fly without a practice as happened last year.
> I actually think the 'grinding schedule' thing is just the way it is, TBH. We're not a top-half-of-the-bracket team anymore.
The post-Jimmy acquisition performance would say otherwise.
Again we have to take these stats in context, these iso plays in the playoffs, who was he on the court with? We had lineups of pods gp2 jk green looney and shit out there. The fact he wasn’t dead last is impressive
Context is important. Someone with more time than me could lookup the exact performance of the lineups that JK was in and contrast with the lineups of the other Warriors listed who likely also had the same cruddy spacing.
I also think “he wasn’t last so he was impressive” fails the burden-of-proof that I mention. That’s just dismissing contrary data. A proper investigation would, for instance, explain why HOU had three players way better than JK at isolation ppp despite that team having similar or worse spacing issues than GSW.
I liked Pat. He was always a bubble player, but I liked him anyway. He was decisive, could dribble, and pushed back when people tried to bully him. We could work with that.
OMG... when do we get to watch basketball again... frigging October 8th?!?!? THAT'S STILL 2 MONTHS AWAY!!!
Watching this Raider's preseason game is just pissing me off so I'll just post a link to the latest podcast featuring our very own Moses Moody
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsIxDle_0L4
Perks with a G-League update, including the welcome news that SCW acquired Marques Bolden.
@gswcba.bsky.social: [[ Santa Cruz Warriors acquired the rights to Marques Bolden yesterday, who participated in the past two Summer Leagues with GSW and has made a great impression on their staff.
He spent all of last season rehabbing a torn Achilles.
Bolden projects as their Opening Night center.
Warriors do not need to sign him for training camp since they already have his GL rights, but don't be surprised if he gets shuffled in and out of their training camp roster on an Exhibit 10 to make him eligible for the bonus.
He also has one year of two-way eligibility left.
Warriors were previously reported to have reached E10 agreements with LJ Cryer (G), Chance McMillian (G), and Coleman Hawkins (C).
Those three with Moni would take up SCW's four affiliate spots and build out half their roster, along with returning rights player, Marques Bolden.
The Warriors are bringing in 6'10 C Jacksen Moni to Santa Cruz on what should be an Exhibit 10.
Moni, a floor-spacing & facilitating big man, played for the Spurs in Summer League after going undrafted.
Last season at NDSU, he posted: 20.6ppg, 5.6rpg, 3.7apg on .508/.408/.837.
Jacksen Moni at 22-years-old is an interesting developmental prospect and great system fit with his outside range (37% on 657 3PA in college) and ability to find cutters and open shooters.
Santa Cruz projects with a very versatile frontcourt in Moni, Hawkins, Bolden, and Toohey.
]]
Latest player to join the "interested in" list for us: Josh Giddey
according to Jake Fischer
Not impossible, I think a giddey jk sign and trade would work cap wise?
But it would hard cap both teams at the first apron, which would make team roster filling rough and lose us Horford.
Perks concurs:
[[ The math is a little too convoluted to make it realistic.
Acquiring an FA in a S&T hard caps a team at the first apron, so both get hardcapped and the Warriors would have to send out additional salary (Hield or Moody) to fit the roster together.
Plus double BYC makes trade matching more difficult. ]]
Giddey's good when he has the basketball, but his weakness is his inability to figure out where he needs to be off-ball.
That sounds familiar
The Valkyries appear to be getting ready to hatch a mascot (probably) while the Warriors are still out in the cold and mascotless.
Fascinating that so much has happened for the past 2+ months with the Valks, while the Warriors haven't signed anyone. Hopefully JK makes a decision so we can break the Dubs summer boredom.
Was Podz at the game last night? I didn't see him on the league pass coverage.
Lacob was (and Sergio Romo!), didn’t see Podz in seats or featured on jumbotron. That may be why they lost.
Ahhh that's why we lost! We need Podz energy to rev up Ballhalla!
The bromance we never saw coming:
https://www.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1mkd84x/jimmy_wearing_a_buddy_mask/
I wonder how this situation is going to play out the closer it gets to training camp. Yes, they still have some time left and they already have handshake deals but it's going to be important to make it official so they can the new guys like Horford and even Melton in the building
I’m sure they have a plan. And a plan B and C and…
Random reading around the interwebz....what does the team look like with Draymond in a reduced defensive role? What does that even mean?
Without knowing much I would be concerned if the team tried to reduce Draymond's defensive role. That is his biggest asset and contribution to the team.
Yes, he does help facilitate the offense and sometimes can be a very effective rebounder, but I think his overall team defense is something that can not be duplicated by others, including Horford.
Less minutes and more rest games as Sleepy mentioned below could be very important, if coaching can coordinate that with the team's overall play to ensure victories. That has been very difficult to do over the years from my observations. Hope for the best!
Without knowing the context, I’d guess: slightly fewer minutes (like 20 mpg), more games off, and minimal time against full-size starting centers?
https://bluemanhoop.com/warriors-have-made-their-stance-draymond-green-crystal-clear
That whole piece sounds vaguely like it was written by ChatGPT, right down to the fact that there’s a related article titled “Warriors have made their stance on Pat Spencer crystal clear.”
Are we sure “G.C. Bellchamber” is an actual person?
Is Chat"GP2" intentional? I love it
LOL.
lol whoops
A new nickname is born? He is quite chatty…
If you’ve ever seen the clips of Payton mic’d up during a game, it’s quite appropriate. Dude is nonstop with whoever’s nearby; be it teammates, opponents, officials, coaches and fans. He’s hilarious.
Play of the year - the Podz behind the back pass flying out of bounds to JK for the dunk
I think a Play of Year contest could be fun. Any other nominees?
Top 5 Steph plays: 1. Nets mid court turnaround fadeaway 2. Phoenix behind the back floater with the KD dap. 3. Stupid step back against Jalen Green, game 1 of the playoffs. 4. Dagger against Lively in the home NBA Cup with the far too early Night Night. 5. Insta release 3 over outstretched LeBron from the right wing to tie or take lead against the Lakers.
We need two categories: Steph plays and non-Steph plays.
Steph's crazy double-teamed fadeaway 3PA from the logo against the Nets at the end of the half. Just an absolutely disgusting shot.
Also, Steph's crazy "Geometrically, that should not have happened" 3PA against the Rockets.
(But for the record I would vote on fzwinter's nominee).
Steph's drive against Jovic of the Heat where he completely turned him around before making the layup was a classic.
For important plays, how about either Steph's crazy behind-the-head pass against the Rockets in Game 7 for a Buddy corner three, or a few minutes later in the same game, Buddy's halfcourt buzzer beater to end the first quarter.
One of my favorites is from the Play-In tournament. Steph runs around the entire floor, gets the 3 and the foul
I also give it bonus points bc you can see Jimmy very clearly yelling ‘That’s a bad mother*****r’ after the play, which I think is hilarious
Link: https://youtu.be/e5XNUeQDeVk?si=Dk6ztY4TwcUJhNyh
Despite the ending, a very entertaining season (especially post-Butler) and of course very entertaining DNHQ articles!
It was and the articles were.
But what I would have given for the Ws to stay healthy throughout their playoff run...
Listening to The Ringer Group Chat podcast, and Mahoney is advocating Malik Monk just to give the Dubs some scoring depth to survive the regular season.
I just don't see how that's a win.
The only way it is if you think JK just won't play for the Dubs, period.
JK may not be the best player in the world, but I have a lot more faith than most that he will:
1. bounce back from the injury.
2. Have done some work in the offseason that makes him better.
3. If we turn him loose on the 2nd unit, score a bunch of points (efficiency ... TBD).
And, if we have to include Buddy or Moses for salary matching purposes, that trade is a slam-dunk for Sac, unprotected first or no.
>>> 2. Have done some work in the offseason that makes him better.
I’d have more faith in this theory if we’d seen more of it in past offseasons. His handles, 3-ball and rebounding haven’t improved all that much despite all the workout clips.
I have definitely been critical of JK many times but he has improved his skill level a lot.
He was so raw when he was drafted and it certainly looked like to me at least, that he had not had the benefit of great coaching.
It takes time and he is still very young.
It will be interesting to see how hard he worked this offseason to improve.
I also believe people don’t like his I want to be Kobe stuff and unfairly downgrade most of what he does.
His passing has improved. He is not a bad rebounder but obviously could be better. His handle and mid range have gotten much better from his rookie year.
I remember when guys like MJ could actually play 3 or 4 years in college vs very good competition and develop their skills and understanding of the game vs being thrust into playing for an NBA championship long before they have any reasonable chance to be ready, magnified here by the unique Curry ball.
I think his handle is considerably better. Not where it needs to be, but he's far from being the guy who used to dribble it twice and then stop when any defender was close.
Hate giving up JK and Buddy/Moses to get him, though. He's not that kind of guy. For Giannis? Sure; send a boatload of guys. But Monk?
Agreed.
That’s what Kuminga would do. And he’s not 6’-3” and wildly overrated.
Monk is on another level from Kuminga at shot creation, especially from the perimeter. Kuminga is a one trick pony
“Shot creation” has limited value when you’re well below league average efficiency, as Monk has been his last two seasons (.564 and .549 TS).
Career scoring per 36: JK 20.5 pts on .583 TS, Monk 19.5 pts on .555 TS.
Throw in Monk’s cruddy D and the fact that another 6-3 wing (on top of Steph, Podz, Melton, GP, and maybe Seth?) would make the whole rotation unsustainably small, and I’d much rather take my chances with our 6’-7” super-athlete making the leap at age 23, flawed and disgruntled as he may be.
Kuminga and many other Warriors have benefitted from the Curry Boost though, for his career he is at 56% TS with Curry off the floor (60% with Curry on the floor). Last season which I would assume people would agree was the most Kuminga has been featured offensively, he was at 50% TS with Curry off the floor because I think it's tough to scale up as a scorer if you have issues with dribbling/passing/shooting. If Monk was on the Warriors, he and his TS% would also benefit from the Curry Boost.
Not that I think the trade makes sense for the Warriors. They'd either have to attach an asset to get off Hield's contract or get rid of Moody, plus they'd be taking on longer term money which they don't seem interested in.
+1 Much better put than my objections.
Totally reasonable. I’m sort of agnostic about this (or, I would be if it didn’t mean losing Buddy—that detail probably makes it a ’no’ for me too), but just playing Devil’s advocate:
One slightly different way to frame the “shot creation” thing would be in terms of ‘dependent' vs. ‘independent' offensive players. JK (barring a massive improvement in his handle) is a far more dependent offensive player than Monk. He’s a mouth to feed, and the only two guys on the current roster who can reliably feed him are Steph and Jimmy—the precise players from whom we’re wanting to relieve some offensive burden. Monk has major downside, but the upside is something approaching 2022 Jordan Poole: a hedge against that late-season Curry injury, and a key part of getting him to Games 4, 5, and 6 of the Finals in peak condition.
Edit: Or, a starker way to think of it: Getting any relief for Steph is almost inevitably going to make the Warriors slightly worse, since even an overburdened Curry is better than anyone we can acquire to take up the slack. So the question to ask about a trade of this kind might not be, “Does this make us better?” but “Is this an adequate hedge against late-season exhaustion and injury.” Not sure what the answer is here, but it’s arguably in the ballpark.
That's pretty similar to what Rob Mahoney was saying on the podcast - the Warriors just don't have anyone who can put up 20 points on their own who isn't hella old.
Except Kuminga, given the minutes.
Maybe a healthy Podz in the future but that's unproven and probably overoptimistic.
I agree with you that Kuminga is not 6'3"
Haha, okay, he is overrated by some. But not wildly so, imo.
Like, popular opinion seems to be that he doesn’t rebound, can’t shoot, and doesn’t pass, when he’s actually a pretty good rebounder (6.6 per 36, career) and efficient scorer (.583 TS on high volume) with decent passing skills for a guy of his age and position (2.9 ast/36).
yeah it's tough to say cause he could either be a breakout star next year or he could regress even further... Schrodinger's superstar -- he's somehow both overrated and underrated simultaneously.
Sleepy, you go back and forth whether he’s even better than Santos
That’s cos I like Santos!
I don’t want to trade Gui for Malik Monk, either. No more mighty mites, particularly if they don’t defend or score efficiently.
Monk had 2 good 3 pt seasons: 2020-21 (but in only 42 games with the Hornets) and 2021-22 with the Lakers.
Other than that, he hasn't shot better than Moody in any season. Or Wiggs for that matter (in his seasons with the Warriors).
He's also under contract for more than 2 years, and I'm not sure which 3rd team would be willing to take him.
Fair enough - but Monk might be more excited to be on the Warriors than Kuminga at this point. And Kerr might actually play him.
Maybe. And then you’re likely running out guys like Podz, Buddy, and GP2 at the 3 or 4.
Yeah, I don't necessarily endorse this take, but I had been thinking more about the playoffs than about regular season survival in the west when considering JK trades.
I would be on board if it didn't mean losing either Buddy or Moody
Monk > JK
Monk << JK AND Buddy or Moses
I’d go JK > Monk, Buddy > Monk, and Moses > Monk, so I definitely agree with the second part!
This. The Warriors are saying they don't want to part with either.
Derrick White Talks Steph Curry vs France! 🔥 | White Noise Podcast w/Derrick White: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg3WsGgV-iM
On Steph going crazy: “well I’ve seen it before… but I didn’t enjoy it in 2022”
Reminds me of the KD quote in Court of Gold:
“We’ve played together for 10-plus years,” Fournier said about France’s cohesive team dynamic leading up to its matchup against Team USA with gold on the line.
And Durant responded, “That chemistry going to help you when you got to guard Steph?”
Watching KD and LeBron defer to Steph in crunch time speaks volumes about his reputation among the game's elites
A lot of players and coaches have commented on how fun it was to be on Steph's side for once. Always fun to see an (otherwise) opposing player fanning just like us.
I also love how players in these discussions just accept that he’s special…in a world where idiots in comments sections still want to say he’s overrated.
I’ve been trying to avoid talking about JK unless directly asked, but I can’t resist this. Monte Poole’s latest calls JK “a terrific scoring soloist” and many other think pieces about JK take for granted a similar idea that JK is a great iso player but Kerr hates iso.
I can’t predict if JK will *become* a terrific isolation player, but if he was terrific now, then there would be no problem and he’d be paid and get minutes.
Let’s look at his stats from his most shining moment, these playoffs — when he was allowed to play. The NBA tracks how many points per possession you score on isolation.
JK is #34 out of 44 qualifying players. On GSW alone he is behind
#5 Steph
#17 Buddy(?!)
#28 Jimmy
One statistic is not a proof. But I have not seen evidence (statistical or close film watch) that JK is terrific at isolation yet. At this point, the burden is on the claimer to prove that JK is a plus isolation player.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?dir=D&sort=PPP
He was 70th percentile in iso scoring in all of 2023
Could you give me a link? The nba says he was 157 out of 252 in 2023 by points per possession isolation.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&SeasonYear=2022-23&dir=D&sort=PPP
Sorry 23-24.
But with a decent spaced lineup he’s fine at iso and will only continue to get better
Maybe and maybe. That’s two of the last three years that JK was below average at iso (including last year WAY below average), so that returns to my point that as of right now, he’s not good at isolation.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Kuminga&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&SeasonYear=2023-24&dir=D&sort=PPP
Here are two responses, the second nuanced and the first not:
1. I can't remember ever thinking something coming from Monte Poole was insightful; probably correct on occasion, but then so is a broken clock.
2. Kuminga has had a lot of ups and downs. Again Minn. he did a very good job as an ISO scorer (but not good enough). He is frequently horrible in the first half and effective in the second. He frequently is less effective when coming back from injury (physical or emotional from Kerr benching). So I think there are stretches where he is (and is not) effective. Another example is that his midrange was 'on' two years ago but horrible at the start last year and then improved to middling. Finally, I think his numbers are also affected by who he plays with and those non-scorers giving him the ball with <7 seconds on the clock.
As you said, single stat doesn't tell it all, and as others have also said, Monte Poole rarely tells us anything of value.
It's been a long time since Monte Poole had good analysis (at least he still has some connections that give him some inside info).
I think the eye test supports this. His isolation scoring is not all that impressive. Maybe he’ll get there one day, but a lot has to happen before he does.
He can't dribble. That alone keeps him from being a premier ISO player imho
Kerr liked iso when he had KD. He will like JK in iso if he gets to maybe 75% of what KD could do.
It is pure fantasy to believe Kerr doesn’t like good iso guys because it is impossible to win without them.
JK has the talent to be one and is currently pretty good at it, but the young JK still has a lot to learn.
Even before KD - Kerr also let Livingston ISO pretty frequently when the Big 3 sat
How often was he stripped when driving to the basket?
Shaun? I dont think he turned the ball over a single time
Exactly.
Totally agree on this. I keep wanting JK to be a terrific iso player. I see the tools - the elite footspeed and athleticism. He should be a good iso player. He can elevate and shoot mid-range jumpers anytime he wants. His problems are: his mid-range jump-shot accuracy is average. It's not like SGA or Jalen Williams or Kawhi, where the mid-range jumper off the bounce has great accuracy.
JK can draw fouls, but his free throw accuracy is mediocre. When he drives, his handles are shaky and help-defenders can poke the ball away. There are also times when he forces drives seeking fouls instead of just trying to finish at the rim. When the refs don't call it, he's slow to get back on D, and it's a 5 on 4 on the other end.
In the big picture = so far, JK's iso's haven't been very efficient. But he's still very young. There's a chance his mid-range jumper and FT accuracy improves.
It reminds me of that scene in Moneyball where all the scouts are talking about how a player has a great looking swing despite not actually being a good hitter. JK looks like a traditionally good ISO scorer with how he plays, but that doesnt mean you are one
Solid post- agree on everything.
@Eric: Shush!
@Other 29 Teams: JK is a terrific isolation scorer!
I definitely do not want to shout it loud, since we really need some other team to overpay if JK does not evolve into his next form
More interesting to me is that Butler ranks so low.
Admittedly, he was hurt, but yikes. $50+ mil for a guy who can't get an iso bucket is a bit much.
It's probably too small a sample size to say much, but something to watch for next season. I was always skeptical of the Jimmy Buckets stuff (not that it happened, just that he's too old to be that guy now).
Butler is a great isolation player, 86th percentile this past season for the Warriors on 2.5 possessions a game, and 76th percentile this past season for the Heat on 1.8 possessions a game. And he is doing it with a second unit that is built almost entirely around him isolating, not just opportunistically hunting mismatches.
The playoffs come down to whether you believe he wasn't compromised by the back injury that had him visibly runing incorrectly after he came back and whether you believe anyone other than like Steph Curry could have succeeded in the conditions he was in against Minnesota (going against McDaniels with Gobert on the inside with multiple non-shooters/non-scorers surrounding him at all times). Because up until the exact moment where he got hurt, including the Clipper game and play-in game and Game 1 of the playoffs, he was dominating.
To me JB looked to pass too much and looked reluctant to score too often.
The end of season stats after getting JB are a bit misleading because the Warriors were in full out desperation playoff mode and they played an easy schedule.
I think we will be much better if we have 2 stretch 5’s and a healthy Melton.
I am curious to see what JB does this year.
Butler’s playoff stats are a concern. However, he was quite injured and probably should not have played. Looking at a larger sample, during the regular season Jimmy was #37 of 277 and JK was #235 in ISO points per possession.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=D&sort=PPP
(
I am intentionally ignoring the issue of passing, since the original investigation was whether JK is a terrific iso scorer.
However, last season Butler averaged 6.5 AST/36 , JK averaged 3.3 AST/36. I think it’s obvious that as a straight swap, JB isolations are much better for GSW than JK isolations.
None of this is to dispute JK’s potential, it’s to dispute how much potential has already been achieved.
)
Quinten Post got so many spoonfed three point looks off of Butler isolations, I think Butler is one of the best iso guys in the league.
The passing is already priced into your effectiveness as a scorer, no? If you cant consistently beat help defenders, you're presumably turning it over more and/or taking worse shots, which would reduce your PPP in isolation
It’s an interesting thesis. The second sentence makes sense, but I don’t see how that implies anything about your ability to pass well and read the defense, so I also don’t see how it implies the first sentence…?
I was just going with the idea that passing and scoring is so intertwined these days that Kuminga's effectiveness as an isolation scorer will always involve his passing limitations (in reference to you noting you were looking to look past his passing and focus solely on investigating his iso scoring).
Maybe could have worded my last post a little clearer
I'm certainly not arguing JB's value as a connector. He's incredible (and clearly that's the style he's more comfortable with).
I like the larger sample size number. That's much more encouraging.
Hurt and on a team built around Steph without Steph. Also worn down after playing a grinding schedule to end the season.
Don't think it's really that representative...
I mean, same applies to Kuminga, right?
True, and I hope you're right, but:
The 'built around Steph without Steph' is not going to change. He's supposed to be the guy if Steph can't go.
I actually think the 'grinding schedule' thing is just the way it is, TBH. We're not a top-half-of-the-bracket team anymore. Given the core's age, it's not being overly negative to predict plenty of lost RS games from the core. Plus, he didn't play a quarter of the season due to the holdout (23 games). So, I'm not sure you can predict a bounce-back due to that, either.
If Steph really can't go as in can't play at all we're screwed anyway. If you're talking filling in for some absences here or there in the regular season, sure, but that's again a different thing.
Small sample size but we did see the team struggle with Jimmy and without Steph in the regular season those few games Steph had to sit out. I expect that will be a focus of the coaching staff to leverage the full offseason and preseason to work on better exploiting Jimmy rather than just throwing him in on the fly without a practice as happened last year.
> I actually think the 'grinding schedule' thing is just the way it is, TBH. We're not a top-half-of-the-bracket team anymore.
The post-Jimmy acquisition performance would say otherwise.
Kobe is the clutchest!
Again we have to take these stats in context, these iso plays in the playoffs, who was he on the court with? We had lineups of pods gp2 jk green looney and shit out there. The fact he wasn’t dead last is impressive
Context is important. Someone with more time than me could lookup the exact performance of the lineups that JK was in and contrast with the lineups of the other Warriors listed who likely also had the same cruddy spacing.
I also think “he wasn’t last so he was impressive” fails the burden-of-proof that I mention. That’s just dismissing contrary data. A proper investigation would, for instance, explain why HOU had three players way better than JK at isolation ppp despite that team having similar or worse spacing issues than GSW.
He needs to improve at the line if he wants to consider himself an efficient iso player. And Kerr doesn't even like it when Steph goes iso.
And he could get to the line more often if he protected the ball when doing his fancy drives.
All these words and not one mention of lacrosse, which was clearly the most important thing of the season.
I can't remember, did the Warriors have a guy who played lacrosse? The announcers never mentioned it.
TV casters have that part thoroughly covered
If we lose LaCrosse a year after losing Kwenones, what are we going to dooo?!??!
I liked Pat. He was always a bubble player, but I liked him anyway. He was decisive, could dribble, and pushed back when people tried to bully him. We could work with that.