2020 Draft Pick Tournament: Final Results and Conventional Wisdom Draft Rankings

The end of a journey they started a long time ago / the arc of a love affair (with the future)

This is it, the end of a journey we started about a month ago.

My goal with this series was to learn more about the draft candidates and to compile a reference of scouting reports for us all to use in our arguments between now until the NBA Draft and, frankly, beyond that until the draft class establishes pro reputations.

• The master 2020 Draft Pick Tournament index. With details on how these prospects were selected and seeded, video and written scouting reports, and the results from every round of voting. Also lots of great comments to read as well.

I’ve loved reading all the LGW comments along the way. Really well-considered decision-making. We all have incomplete information, but your thoughtful notes have overall expanded my thinking about drafting, evaluation, and The Future of GSW.

The Winner

• 8. Tyrese Haliburton vs 6. Onyeka Okongwu. (55.1%-44.9%) Twitter leaned Okongwu, but LGW decisively broke for Haliburton.

The Real Winner: Trade This Pick

People desperately want GSW to trade out of the Top 5 draft spots. The draft is full of promising late lottery picks, and people definitely would rather take a flyer on someone late and add another player or pick. I’ll look carefully at this possibility in the future. But keep in mind that basically every other team feels the same way and also wants to trade down.

Our Voting: LGW versus Twitter

You might find it a bit suspicious that my favorite two prospects in the draft should just happen to be in the finals. I tried to not give my own opinions on the matchup until the voting was over. And you can follow the seeding and voting process from start to finish and see that these are really the collective favorites of LGW and Twitter and there have been times that the voters have disagreed with my votes.

I noticed some distinct patterns too. I posted the poll on my own personal Twitter feed @EricApricot early on article post day. Then I’d retweet from the big @LetsGoWarriors account. Separately, LGW comment votes would roll in steadily over two days.

The LGW comment votes and my personal Twitter follower votes tracked closely. Probably because there’s a lot of overlap between the groups… I’ll just call this voting bloc “LGW”. And the Twitter voters had their own distinct voting profile. The big disagreements were:

• 4. Obi Toppin vs 13. Saddiq Bey* (56.9% - 43.1%). Twitter for Obi, but massive support for Bey at LGW made this a close one. 

• 5. James Wiseman vs 12. Aaron Nesmith*. (67.2% - 32.8%) Massive LGW support for Nesmith cannot overcome Twitter support for Wiseman.

• 8. Tyrese Haliburton* vs 9. Deni Avdija (71.9% - 28.1%). A close vote on Twitter, a landslide for Haliburton on LGW.

• 1. Anthony Edwards vs 8. Tyrese Haliburton* (46.7% - 53.3%). Massive LGW voting for Haliburton pulls it out.

• 2. LaMelo Ball vs 10. Devin Vassell* (32.6% - 67.4%) A close vote on Twitter, not close at LGW for Vassell.

• 8. Tyrese Haliburton* vs 5. James Wiseman (50.1%-49.9%) Insanely close, a single Twitter vote margin. LGW support pulls it out at the last second.

Roughly speaking:

LGW prefers

• proven track records

• excellent three point shooting

• more likely to contribute now

Twitter prefers:

• speed, potential, driving

• sparkling high ceilings and low floors

• to optimistically view international performance

Twitter’s opinion tracks more closely with the conventional wisdom, as you can tell by how often they voted for the favored seed.

The exception has been James Wiseman. LGW still is suspicious of him, but he is the one “project” that has any traction at LGW, probably because his dimensions and athleticism suggest a floor of JaVale McGee, a useful contributor.

Current Conventional Wisdom Draft Rankings

So what precisely IS the conventional wisdom? I made a handy super overview spreadsheet of expert draft rankings. Since this series started, the average rankings have shifted, as experts change their minds, and as I’ve added a couple of new sources. The number is the player’s average rank.

• 1.8. Anthony Edwards

• 2.6. LaMelo Ball

• 4.8. James Wiseman

• 5.2. Onyeka Okongwu

• 5.8. Killian Hayes

• 6.0. Obi Toppin

• 6.5. Isaac Okoro

• 7.2. Deni Avdija

• 8.6. Tyrese Haliburton

• 10.3. Devin Vassell

• 13.0. Cole Anthony

• 13.9. Aaron Nesmith

• 15.4. Patrick Williams

• 17.6. Saddiq Bey

• 17.9. R.J. Hampton

• 17.9. Tyrese Maxey

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