GSW pick Yaxel Lendeborg at #11, the most-ready, best-fitting big man available
Yaxel was the DNHQ Draft Tourney runner up behind Kingston Flemings!
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Draft Pick Analysis: Yaxel was inevitable
The Warriors selected Yaxel Lendeborg with the number 11 pick! If you wanted to pick a player that was most likely to help GSW in 2026-27, Yaxel would be the one. Yaxel in fact was the runner-up in our Draft Tourney behind Flemings, who was not available to pick. Therefore, Yaxel is the choice of DNHQ as well!
This pick has felt inevitable for over a year. I was tracking him carefully in the 2025 draft because he was an under-the-radar big whose statistical numbers absolutely popped. BPM loved him, and he was playing for a lower-tier team, so it seemed possible that he might slip to the Warriors.
As his 2024-25 season continued, his profile got higher and higher, and then he produced a stupendous statistical game in the National Invitational Tournament, which put him well out of reach of the second round and had him dreaming about the first round. A huge pot of Name, Image, and Likeness money was waiting for him at the University of Michigan, and so he went back to school and led that team all the way to the national championship a few weeks ago.
That made me hope that Yaxel would fall to the Warriors when they picked somewhere in the #15-#20 range.
But as the injuries piled up, GSW rocketed to the #11 spot. At this point, Dub Nation dared to dream a bigger dream than having Yaxel fall to them. At #11 there would be real prospects that you could dream about (and also choose disastrously as they lobby for more playing time and a bigger contract).
In the end, GSW couldn’t find a trade-down deal they liked and just grabbed Yaxel.
Yaxel eye test
Yaxel was a very good college defender and was able to switch onto smalls as well as bigs. He showed good hands. His height is 6-9, but his wingspan is a whopping 7-3. He shot a very respectable 37% from three this year and 36% last year, and shot 82% on free throws this year and 76% the previous year. He played hurt through the end of the year and through the NCAA Tournament because the team needed him.
I’ve included a lot of video and scouts from the Draft Tourney below.
Yaxel stats test
Have I mentioned that he’s a statistical god? RAPM loves him and ranks him in the 99th percentile of all players in college. BPM loves him and ranks him 12th out of 2,284 qualifying players. Even in 2025, he was already ranked #26.
I need to pause and remind us how much BPM has predicted Dunleavy’s draft picks.
Mike Dunleavy Jr has so far valued analytics much higher than Bob Myers. MDJ’s picks have been extremely highly ranked in BPM (out of all 5,000+ college players who played 40% of possible minutes):
#1 Trayce Jackson-Davis (#3 CHAW)
#11 Brandin Podziemski (#15 CHAW)
#31 Quinten Post (#12 CHAW)
#35 Will Richard (#284 CHAW)
and now… #12 Yaxel Lendeborg (#22 CHAW)
And the pattern holds even if you include undrafted free agents signed on draft night,
#39 Reese Beekman (#8 CHAW)
#70 LJ Cryer (#77 CHAW)
#79 Chance McMillian (#136 CHAW)
The one pick that doesn’t fit this pattern was Alex Toohey who had no NCAA track record so therefore no NCAA BPM. And we all saw what a miss that pick was.
Yaxel qualms
So after all that, why was my pre-draft vibe for Yaxel “Cautiously open minded”?
The famous issue is that Yaxel is 23.7 years old. For a simple comparison, #10 Brayden Burries is 20.8 yo and #12 Aday Mara is 21.2 yo. #1 pick Dybantsa is 19.4 yo.
That may not feel like a big age difference, but it’s quite large developmentally. The age difference has two big implications: projectability and upside.
Projectability concerns are that a 23 year old has a mature, built body playing against still-developing 19 and 20 year olds. Thus one has to take care in projecting their performance in the NBA compared to typical high-end rookies.
Upside concerns are that a 19 year old would have a whole four more years of improvement time, both for incremental progress and for the rare leaps in development that make a prospect into a star. On a smaller scale, you can consider the case of Moses Moody vs Chris Duarte in 2021. They were regarded as similar at draft time, but Duarte was around 24 yo. and Moses was 19 yo. Duarte was definitely more ready for the NBA, making the second-team All-Rookie team. But by 2024 Duarte was out of the league, and we know that Moody was continuing to improve as a borderline starter for GSW before his catastrophic injury.
Yaxel alternatives
Also available at the spot were Labaron Philon (fell all the way to #22) and Cameron Carr (#24). The next picks, if you want to wallow in FOMO, were
12. Oklahoma City Thunder draft Aday Mara (Michigan)
13. Miami Heat draft Nate Ament (Tennessee) (Traded to Milwaukee)
14. Charlotte Hornets draft Hannes Steinbach (Washington)
15. Chicago Bulls draft Dailyn Swain (Texas)
16. Memphis Grizzlies from Bennett Stirtz (Iowa) (Traded to Oklahoma City)
17. Oklahoma City Thunder draft Ebuka Okorie (Stanford) (Traded to Detroit via Memphis)
18. Charlotte Hornets draft Christian Anderson (Texas Tech)
19. Toronto Raptors draft Allen Graves (Santa Clara)
20. San Antonio Spurs draft Jayden Quaintance
21. Detroit Pistons draft Karim López (New Zealand Breakers) (Traded to Memphis)
22. Philadelphia 76ers draft Labaron Philon Jr. (Alabama)
23. Atlanta Hawks draft Zuby Ejiofor (St. John’s)
24. New York Knicks draft Cameron Carr (Baylor) (Reportedly traded to Los Angeles Lakers)
Yaxel conclusions
In the case of the Warriors, the team has definitely reached a crossroads where they have to decide whether to maximize the last two years of Steph Curry or maximize the possible stardom of a draft pick.
GSW clearly picked Steph-Curry-maxxing. The vast vast majority of rookies are negative contributors in their rookie year.
For a quick verification: there are 59 rookies of the 2025 NBA Draft. 6 of them had positive BPM. One of them was the older 23.5 year old big Ryan Kalkbrenner.
But since Yaxel is fairly mature, he has the best chance of being ready to contribute starting this season. Yaxel’s game doesn’t seem to rely on superior athleticism, so projectability might be less of an issue.
And upside is just not important when maxing Steph compared to being NBA-ready. By the way, we shouldn’t say that Yaxel is without any upside. Every player can bloom late and Yaxel also was a very late starter in the game of basketball. He only really played one year of top level college basketball. There are plausible reasons to think Yaxel may have more upside than his age.
But in the end, the Warriors could use a skilled defender who can guard bigs and smalls, pass some and maybe a shoot some 3s. Indeed it’s in the DNA of the Warriors that we are perpetually searching for a big man star and perpetually falling short. And this is very likely the best draft pick for Steph Curry’s success in the next two years.
Yaxel Lendeborg Scouting Report
Avg: 12.43 | Range: 12–14 | Draftballr | B-Ref
Height: 6-9 | Position: SF/PF | College: Michigan | PPG: 15.1 | RPG: 6.8 | APG: 3.2
Bleacher Report Pick 13
NBA teams won’t put much stock into Yaxel Lendeborg’s NBA combine performance or workouts. There is enough tape of his versatility and gradual improvement as a shooter and defender, and there is clearly enough evidence of high-impact minutes after his national championship run at Michigan.
ESPN Pick 12
The Thunder have a roster crunch to solve for this offseason, holding team options on Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and Kenrich Williams, as well as two first-round picks (they also have No. 17). Picking up all three would put them at 15 players, barring another consolidation trade. The Thunder figure to make at least one of those selections, adding cost-controlled young depth to their 64-win team.
Where Lendeborg hears his name called will be a fascinating case study of how NBA teams choose to factor in his age: Although he will be a 24-year-old rookie, he is a rare talent, given his center-sized dimensions, perimeter skill, and ability to guard all five positions. His trajectory as a late-blooming player who arguably has just begun to scratch the surface of his ability is another part of the evaluation. He will be in play inside the top 10 as an NBA-ready option, and might not make it out of the lottery.
The Athletic Pick 12
Even though Lendeborg gutted through an ankle injury in the Final Four, he led Michigan to a title and transformed his game. His counting numbers were down from his heights at UAB, but he averaged 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists while playing aggressive defense. He showcased serious switchability, often picking up lead ballhandlers at the point of attack as well as playing against power forwards when Mara or Morez Johnson Jr. would leave the court. He’s also an active help defender with excellent hands.
He drilled 37.4 percent of his 3s for the season, thanks to a hot streak at the end of the year in which he made 48.1 percent over his final 16 games — and that includes a 0-of-5 mark when he was clearly hobbled against UConn in the title game. Lendeborg tracks for Oklahoma City as a long, physical player with two-way acumen, something the Thunder are always on the lookout for. Don’t be surprised to see Oklahoma City try to consolidate some pick capital and move up in this class, either.
Apricot’s Live Commentary on Draft Night
Amick says GSW “did not see themselves as in the mix” for Trey Murphy III
Ok, we need 2 surprises to have one of the Top 9 drop to GSW. We should definitely want that, even if you don’t like the faller, because that will make #11 more attractive as trade to other teams.
The reported intel on the draft is
#1 WAS - Dybantsa
#2 UTA - Peterson
#3 MEM - Boozer, they are analytics-ish, remote controlled by Draft Twitter
#4 CHI - Caleb Wilson
#5 LAC - Wagler
#6 BRK - ???
#7 SAC - Acuff mutual interest between Acuff and the Kings
#8 ATL - ???
#9 DAL (hired U Mich coach) (Trying to trade down)
#10 MIL - ???
#11 GSW - ???
Let’s see how good the intel is.
[on my intel being right so far[ well, I won’t crack open the box of dog biscuits until the actual pick comes...
I switched to the Bleacher Report YT live stream with Wasserman
They say the draft doesn’t really start until someone makes a surprise pick. Maybe only I say that. Anyway, the draft hasn’t started.
√ #1 WAS - Dybantsa
√ #2 UTA - Peterson
√ #3 MEM - Boozer, they are analytics-ish, remote controlled by Draft Twitter
First moment of real uncertainty. Reports have been Wagler, but not nearly the lock that the Top 4 were.
#5 LAC - Wagler
#6 BRK - ???
#7 SAC - Acuff mutual interest between Acuff and the Kings
#8 ATL - ???
#9 DAL (hired U Mich coach) (Trying to trade down)
#10 MIL - ???
#11 GSW - ???
FYI Jake Fischer says LAC will NOT trade the pick.
On the BR stream, Wasserman pointed out that Boozer had 5” more vertical than Boogie Cousins, despite the worries about athleticism. Note this was right to Boogie’s face.
#6 BRK is the first real mystery. Feels like most rate Acuff as best available. Does BRK do something wild like extort SAC for an asset to move up and take their beloved Acuff?
OK BRK, we need you to do something wild... like last year, when the Nets drafted 4 big point guards.
Wooo Mikel Brown Jr. A small surprise.
#7 intel is SAC has romance with Acuff...
COME ON KANGZ, PICK ALLEN GRAVES YOU COWARDS, LIGHT THAT BEAM
#7 SAC is Acuff.
And Boogie says: I love this guy. Kings, please take care of the kid. We know how they [the Kings] are.
Conventional wisdom is Flemings is #8. But could see Burries. Praying #8 ATL goes with a Michigan big
#8 ATL, it’s Flemings... BOOOOO
(copium) this could be setting up a GSW Okorie pick
#9 probably Burries and I don’t think MIL will reach for Okorie...?
I’m okay with Philon too. I think Okorie’s stats are a little better.
#9 DAL... YO IT’S MOREZ. THE MICHIGAN COACH REALLY TOOK ONE OF HIS OWN.
(Hoping MIL will make a wild pick at #10)
FEAR THE DEER (PICK)
TAKE MARA YOU HORNED MAMMALS
BE BRAVE UNGULATE HERBIVORES
NOOOOOOOOOOOO
Burries goes to herbivores
Warriors on the clock.HERE WE GO, HUMANS.
Philon?
Yaxel?
Ament?
Carr?
Mara?
Okorie?
I forgot: TRADE DOWN?
NEVER TOO LATE TO PANIC
Jake Fischer says GSW is fielding trade offers
ALWAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO HURT™
btw even if there is a trade, we might not know about it until a few picks later
Yaxel. We don’t know if there’s a trade yet.
Brett Siegel says GSW wanted Burries or Yaxel.
Jonathan Wasserman says he heard this weekend that GSW wanted Yaxel because he was NBA ready.
I’m going to wait a couple of picks to wait for a possible trade to clear before I start emotionally adjusting to the Yaxel Era
OKC now going all in on Anti-Wemby technology: Mara
I’ve been predicting Yaxel since last draft, but it was interesting to see how the team dealt with a wide open choice
The debate is levels beyond age mattering as that’s the first thing anyone thinks of in the draft. It’s about team needs, projectability and upside.
Read this from Lendeborg a few months ago, more relevant now:
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/yaxel-lendeborg-ncaa-basketball-michigan
>>>Mike Dunleavy on his pre-pick interaction with Joe Lacob: “We got into it about the best golf course in San Francisco.” Later said there was some discussion about possible trades before they took Yaxel Lendeborg. <<<
https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1ue2rux/slater_mike_dunleavy_on_his_prepick_interaction/