The likely new guys: Seth Curry, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, De'Anthony Melton: an APRIBOT scout
APRIBOT is coming to town
Table of Contents
APRIBOT is our friend
I have been working on a new version of APRIBOT, software to scout current NBA players. I’ve been tweaking her to produce more human readable reports and this is the current version.1 I also added guardrails to reduce some of the touchy temper and megalomania.
As we know, free agency is on hold while the Jonathan Kuminga contract situation is resolved. The rumored GSW free agency signings are Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II and Seth Curry.
In this article I will scout Seth Curry, then I’ll circle back to re-scout the others in the series, updated with the new format scouting report. I’ve consolidated all the scouting reports here.
Original scouting reports versions:
APRIBOT Scouting Reports
Seth Curry
For emotional and sentimental reasons, I would be delighted to have Seth Curry back.
On the court, he has literally the #1 highest three-point percentages in the league and as a team we desperately need more shooting for better spacing.
However, I think he would be very vulnerable to being attacked on defense and Kerr has been focusing the last couple years on having two way players. I think the league has been trending towards more attacking “weak links“.
Finally, most analytics do not think Seth Curry 2025 was a particularly positive player either on defense (no surprise) or even offense (surprise!).
For these reasons, I do not think GSW will try to sign Seth, unless it is with a minimum salary and no guarantee of playing time. And that may not sound that appetizing to Seth if he has any other options.
Having said that, let’s see what APRIBOT has to say about Seth. It matches my above eye test pretty well. The 3P% is elite, but the volume is meh, and the defensive statistical impact is negative. Digging into the analytics (not that advanced, it is what Basketball-Reference has), Seth is at best slightly positive.
Seth Curry (Positional vs Year)
PPG 6.5, APG 0.9, RPG 1.7 FG% 0.478, 3P% 0.456, FT% 0.846
PG:22% SG:72% SF:6%
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=== Summary by Subcategory ===
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Impact
✅✅✅✅✅ At Rim
❌❌❌❌❌ Dunking
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Midrange Accuracy
✅✅✅✅✅ 3-Point Accuracy
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ 3-Point Volume
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Free Throw Accuracy
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Free Throw Volume
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Scoring
❌❌❌❌▫️ Passing
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Ball Security
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Usage
❌❌❌❌▫️ Perimeter Defense
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Interior Defense
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Team Defense
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Rebounding (Off)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Rebounding (Def)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Fouls
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Playing Games
Seth should be more useful on GSW than other teams that have more shooting. GSW should be able to get him shooting on the move. Imagining him playing the Duncan Robinson role on a second unit led by Jimmy Butler.
It will be interesting to see if he can play in a team defensive concept well enough to outshoot what he gives up. After all, he spent most of the last two seasons in CHA, a team that was hopelessly tanking. Maybe being on a team with a mission will reinvigorate him.
The gory details
=== Overall Impact ===
--- Impact ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ BPM: -1.700 (40th, -0.31)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ VORP: 0.100 (44th, -0.41)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ WS: 1.800 (48th, -0.36)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ WS/48: 0.080 (50th, -0.03)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_On-Off: 0.800 (61st, +0.24)
❌❌❌❌▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_OnCourt: -8.800 (16th, -1.16)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ PER: 12.200 (51st, -0.30)
=== Shooting ===
--- At Rim ---
✅✅✅✅✅ FG% by Distance_0-3: 0.826 (97th, +2.03)
✅✅✅✅✅ Misc._Blkd: 7.000 (7th, -1.04)
--- Dunking ---
❌❌❌❌❌ Dunks_#: 0.000 (7th, -0.82)
❌❌❌❌❌ Dunks_%FGA: 0.000 (6th, -0.97)
--- Midrange Accuracy ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ FG% by Distance_3-10: 0.350 (11th, -1.10)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_10-16: 0.429 (49th, +0.14)
✅✅✅✅▫️ FG% by Distance_16-3P: 0.536 (89th, +1.03)
--- 3-Point Accuracy ---
✅✅✅✅✅ 3P%: 0.456 (100th, +2.24)
--- 3-Point Volume ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ 3PA: 182.000 (39th, -0.49)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ 3PA_per36: 6.169 (43rd, -0.14)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ 3PAr: 0.531 (61st, +0.23)
--- Free Throw Accuracy ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ FT%: 0.846 (69th, +0.64)
--- Free Throw Volume ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FT: 33.000 (25th, -0.70)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FTA: 39.000 (23rd, -0.76)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FT_per36: 1.119 (19th, -0.83)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FTA_per36: 1.322 (17th, -0.93)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Misc._And1: 6.000 (39th, -0.52)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FTr: 0.114 (18th, -1.05)
--- Scoring ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ TS%: 0.616 (90th, +1.18)
✅✅✅✅✅ eFG%: 0.599 (91st, +1.47)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OBPM: -0.800 (54th, -0.07)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OWS: 1.300 (59th, -0.05)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ PTS_per36: 15.051 (47th, -0.26)
=== Playmaking ===
--- Passing ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ AST%: 8.800 (22nd, -1.16)
❌❌❌❌▫️ Misc._PGA: 149.000 (16th, -0.91)
--- Ball Security ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ TOV: 32.000 (22nd, -0.87)
✅✅✅✅▫️ TOV%: 8.200 (14th, -1.14)
✅✅✅✅▫️ TOV_per36: 1.085 (16th, -1.14)
✅✅✅✅▫️ Turnovers_BadPass: 16.000 (17th, -0.88)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Turnovers_LostBall: 13.000 (37th, -0.57)
--- Usage ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ USG%: 15.700 (31st, -0.69)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FGA: 343.000 (38th, -0.59)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ FGA_per36: 11.627 (42nd, -0.46)
❌❌❌❌▫️ AST: 60.000 (15th, -0.92)
❌❌❌❌▫️ AST_per36: 2.034 (12th, -1.36)
=== Defense & Rebounding ===
--- Perimeter Defense ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ STL: 27.000 (22nd, -0.84)
❌❌❌❌▫️ STL%: 1.300 (19th, -0.83)
❌❌❌❌▫️ STL_per36: 0.915 (16th, -0.94)
--- Interior Defense ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ BLK: 7.000 (25th, -0.74)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ BLK%: 0.600 (27th, -0.80)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ BLK_per36: 0.237 (29th, -0.77)
--- Team Defense ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DBPM: -0.900 (30th, -0.55)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DWS: 0.500 (22nd, -0.82)
--- Rebounding (Off) ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ ORB: 24.000 (32nd, -0.57)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ ORB%: 2.400 (36th, -0.42)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ ORB_per36: 0.814 (41st, -0.38)
--- Rebounding (Def) ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DRB: 89.000 (29th, -0.69)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DRB%: 9.100 (26th, -0.73)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DRB_per36: 3.017 (24th, -0.70)
--- Fouls ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ Fouls Committed_Shoot: 26.000 (14th, -1.04)
❌❌❌❌▫️ Fouls Drawn_Shoot: 16.000 (19th, -0.77)
✅✅✅✅▫️ Fouls Committed_Off.: 1.000 (12th, -1.03)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Fouls Drawn_Off.: 5.000 (42nd, -0.48)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ PF: 59.000 (23rd, -0.93)
✅✅✅✅▫️ PF_per36: 2.000 (17th, -0.95)
=== Availability ===
--- Playing Games ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ G: 68.000 (67th, +0.65)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ MP: 1062.000 (41st, -0.54)
=== Role ===
--- Shooting Profile ---
❌❌❌❌❌ % of FGA by Distance_0-3: 0.067 (8th, -1.26)
❌❌❌❌▫️ % of FGA by Distance_3-10: 0.117 (19th, -0.89)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_10-16: 0.122 (78th, +0.67)
✅✅✅✅✅ % of FGA by Distance_16-3P: 0.163 (99th, +2.92)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_2P: 0.469 (40th, -0.23)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_3P: 0.531 (61st, +0.23)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Corner 3s_%3PA: 0.297 (61st, +0.28)
✅✅✅✅✅ Corner 3s_3P%: 0.537 (96th, +1.87)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Dist.: 18.800 (78th, +0.86)
Al Horford
It’s a bit tricky to evaluate Stretch 5s. Here, we restrict the comparison group to just PFs and Centers. This brings out how special his 3 point shooting is — for a big. With Horford you’ll get a lot more 3P shooting, accuracy and ball care than a normal center. But also way fewer 2P and FTs. And offensive rebounding percentage is very low as one might expect from someone stationed on the perimeter on offense.
And Horford’s defense becomes somewhat negative compared to other centers. But it’s a good sign that it’s not THAT negative given how much you unlock on offense and in lineup diversity.
He also happens to be a deadeye FT shooter and above average at finishing, but these are less important as he also rarely takes twos or free throws. His usage is very low, which means he’s used to sitting in the corner and spacing the floor and getting occasional shots.
Al Horford (Positional vs Year)
PPG 9.0, APG 2.1, RPG 6.2 FG% 0.423, 3P% 0.363, FT% 0.895
PF:60% C:40%
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=== Summary by Subcategory ===
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Impact
✅✅✅▫️▫️ At Rim
❌❌❌❌❌ Dunking
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Midrange Accuracy
✅✅✅▫️▫️ 3-Point Accuracy
✅✅✅✅✅ 3-Point Volume
✅✅✅✅✅ Free Throw Accuracy
❌❌❌❌❌ Free Throw Volume
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Scoring
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Passing
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Ball Security
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Usage
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Perimeter Defense
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Interior Defense
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Team Defense
❌❌❌❌▫️ Rebounding (Off)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Rebounding (Def)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Fouls
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Durability
The gory details
=== Overall Impact ===
--- Impact ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ BPM: 1.200 (63rd, +0.32)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ VORP: 1.300 (68th, +0.28)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ WS: 4.400 (66th, +0.41)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ WS/48: 0.129 (43rd, +0.21)
✅✅✅✅▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_On-Off: 5.200 (81st, +0.68)
✅✅✅✅✅ +/- Per 100 Poss_OnCourt: 12.100 (96th, +1.67)
❌❌❌❌▫️ PER: 12.900 (10th, -0.75)
=== Shooting ===
--- At Rim ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_0-3: 0.745 (62nd, +0.55)
✅✅✅✅✅ Misc._Blkd: 8.000 (6th, -1.13)
--- Dunking ---
❌❌❌❌❌ Dunks_#: 8.000 (5th, -0.86)
❌❌❌❌❌ Dunks_%FGA: 0.017 (6th, -1.05)
--- Midrange Accuracy ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_3-10: 0.467 (39th, +0.03)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_10-16: 0.429 (58th, +0.20)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_16-3P: 0.200 (31st, -0.60)
--- 3-Point Accuracy ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ 3P%: 0.363 (72nd, +0.46)
--- 3-Point Volume ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ 3PA: 314.000 (89th, +1.19)
✅✅✅✅✅ 3PA_per36: 6.814 (92nd, +1.07)
✅✅✅✅✅ 3PAr: 0.681 (99th, +1.83)
--- Free Throw Accuracy ---
✅✅✅✅✅ FT%: 0.895 (99th, +1.68)
--- Free Throw Volume ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ FT: 34.000 (10th, -0.80)
❌❌❌❌❌ FTA: 38.000 (6th, -0.89)
❌❌❌❌❌ FT_per36: 0.738 (4th, -1.23)
❌❌❌❌❌ FTA_per36: 0.825 (3rd, -1.41)
❌❌❌❌❌ Misc._And1: 2.000 (6th, -0.95)
❌❌❌❌❌ FTr: 0.082 (1st, -1.73)
--- Scoring ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ TS%: 0.563 (18th, -0.56)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ eFG%: 0.547 (25th, -0.28)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OBPM: 0.100 (53rd, +0.05)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OWS: 2.000 (58th, +0.11)
❌❌❌❌▫️ PTS_per36: 11.675 (16th, -0.89)
=== Playmaking ===
--- Passing ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST%: 10.400 (41st, -0.38)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Misc._PGA: 341.000 (73rd, +0.18)
--- Ball Security ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ TOV: 46.000 (32nd, -0.59)
✅✅✅✅✅ TOV%: 8.800 (7th, -0.99)
✅✅✅✅✅ TOV_per36: 0.998 (3rd, -1.32)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Turnovers_BadPass: 30.000 (68th, -0.06)
✅✅✅✅✅ Turnovers_LostBall: 6.000 (8th, -0.99)
--- Usage ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ USG%: 13.800 (23rd, -0.85)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ FGA: 461.000 (62nd, -0.08)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FGA_per36: 10.004 (34th, -0.62)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ AST: 128.000 (66th, +0.06)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST_per36: 2.778 (47th, -0.25)
=== Defense & Rebounding ===
--- Perimeter Defense ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ STL: 36.000 (54th, -0.22)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ STL%: 1.100 (26th, -0.74)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ STL_per36: 0.781 (24th, -0.84)
--- Interior Defense ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ BLK: 51.000 (54th, +0.53)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ BLK%: 2.800 (27th, +0.07)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ BLK_per36: 1.107 (28th, +0.12)
--- Team Defense ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ DBPM: 1.100 (71st, +0.69)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ DWS: 2.400 (71st, +0.82)
--- Rebounding (Off) ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ ORB: 79.000 (27th, -0.15)
❌❌❌❌❌ ORB%: 5.200 (8th, -0.78)
❌❌❌❌❌ ORB_per36: 1.714 (8th, -0.76)
--- Rebounding (Def) ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ DRB: 290.000 (56th, +0.40)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DRB%: 18.900 (20th, -0.10)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DRB_per36: 6.293 (24th, -0.07)
--- Fouls ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Fouls Committed_Shoot: 55.000 (35th, -0.25)
❌❌❌❌❌ Fouls Drawn_Shoot: 16.000 (7th, -0.91)
✅✅✅✅✅ Fouls Committed_Off.: 5.000 (6th, -0.84)
❌❌❌❌❌ Fouls Drawn_Off.: 0.000 (4th, -0.83)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ PF: 81.000 (27th, -0.68)
✅✅✅✅✅ PF_per36: 1.758 (1st, -1.64)
=== Availability ===
--- Durability ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ G: 60.000 (53rd, +0.22)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ MP: 1659.000 (71st, +0.48)
=== Role ===
--- Shooting Profile ---
❌❌❌❌❌ % of FGA by Distance_0-3: 0.119 (2nd, -1.38)
❌❌❌❌▫️ % of FGA by Distance_3-10: 0.163 (10th, -0.88)
❌❌❌❌▫️ % of FGA by Distance_10-16: 0.015 (15th, -1.00)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_16-3P: 0.022 (66th, -0.24)
❌❌❌❌❌ % of FGA by Distance_2P: 0.319 (3rd, -1.83)
✅✅✅✅✅ % of FGA by Distance_3P: 0.681 (99th, +1.83)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Corner 3s_%3PA: 0.318 (65th, -0.04)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Corner 3s_3P%: 0.390 (66th, +0.33)
✅✅✅✅✅ Dist.: 19.000 (100th, +1.66)
Gary Payton II
Well, as we know, Gary Payton II defies easy categorization to a single position. On defense, he defends guards and wings. On offense, he plays like a center. APRIBOT is not currently equipped to make that kind of comparison. Because of GP2, I did modify APRIBOT to try to handle hybrid positions, but this is only as good as the estimated position data. And in GP2’s case, he’s estimated as mostly a SG. Oh well. Here’s the report anyway.
Gary Payton II (Positional vs Year)
PPG 6.5, APG 1.3, RPG 3.0 FG% 0.574, 3P% 0.326, FT% 0.711
PG:26% SG:71% SF:4%
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=== Summary by Subcategory ===
✅✅✅✅▫️ Impact
✅✅✅▫️▫️ At Rim
✅✅✅✅✅ Dunking
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Midrange Accuracy
❌❌❌❌▫️ 3-Point Accuracy
❌❌❌❌▫️ 3-Point Volume
❌❌❌❌▫️ Free Throw Accuracy
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Free Throw Volume
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Scoring
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Passing
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Ball Security
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Usage
✅✅✅✅▫️ Perimeter Defense
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Interior Defense
✅✅✅✅▫️ Team Defense
✅✅✅✅✅ Rebounding (Off)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Rebounding (Def)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Fouls
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ DurabilityAPRIBOT still loves GP2 and his stats match the eye test. Gary is still well above average for finishing around the basket and an excellent defender by Defensive BPM. And he’s still excellent at steals.
He's got a low turnover rate, but that's probably more because he's a finisher and doesn't try to do too much. If he gets the ball, then ideally it will be two steps and a dunk.
His three-point percentage is above average in the sense that he's allowed to shoot it, but it's way below what you would want for an efficient part of an offensive diet.
His availability is below average, as is his free throw percentage. He doesn't get to the line much, and he's not Shaq-level bad, but he misses more than you'd like.
And overall, BPM rates him in the top 15% of the league for combo guards. That is a pretty great deal for a minimum contract to get an above-average player that is beloved in the locker room and willing to embrace a lesser role.
The gory details
=== Overall Impact ===
--- Impact ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ BPM: 1.400 (85th, +0.86)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ VORP: 0.800 (74th, +0.18)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ WS: 3.000 (67th, +0.16)
✅✅✅✅✅ WS/48: 0.155 (95th, +1.47)
✅✅✅✅▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_On-Off: 4.400 (87th, +0.94)
✅✅✅✅▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_OnCourt: 6.900 (85th, +1.10)
✅✅✅✅▫️ PER: 16.200 (83rd, +0.79)
=== Shooting ===
--- At Rim ---
✅✅✅✅✅ FG% by Distance_0-3: 0.845 (99th, +2.27)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Misc._Blkd: 20.000 (48th, -0.37)
--- Dunking ---
✅✅✅✅✅ Dunks_#: 32.000 (91st, +1.37)
✅✅✅✅✅ Dunks_%FGA: 0.128 (99th, +3.61)
--- Midrange Accuracy ---
✅✅✅✅✅ FG% by Distance_3-10: 0.553 (94th, +1.45)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_10-16: 0.333 (25th, -0.57)
▫️▫️▫️▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_16-3P: n/a (n/a, n/a)
--- 3-Point Accuracy ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ 3P%: 0.326 (14th, -0.84)
--- 3-Point Volume ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ 3PA: 95.000 (12th, -1.01)
❌❌❌❌▫️ 3PA_per36: 3.689 (10th, -1.32)
❌❌❌❌❌ 3PAr: 0.319 (8th, -1.26)
--- Free Throw Accuracy ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ FT%: 0.711 (14th, -1.04)
--- Free Throw Volume ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ FT: 27.000 (14th, -0.77)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FTA: 38.000 (22nd, -0.76)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FT_per36: 1.049 (18th, -0.89)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FTA_per36: 1.476 (21st, -0.83)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Misc._And1: 10.000 (61st, -0.17)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FTr: 0.128 (22nd, -0.89)
--- Scoring ---
✅✅✅✅✅ TS%: 0.635 (96th, +1.63)
✅✅✅✅✅ eFG%: 0.626 (98th, +2.09)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OBPM: -0.500 (58th, +0.06)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ OWS: 1.500 (63rd, +0.07)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ PTS_per36: 15.534 (50th, -0.17)
=== Playmaking ===
--- Passing ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST%: 13.500 (50th, -0.54)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Misc._PGA: 206.000 (34th, -0.72)
--- Ball Security ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ TOV: 39.000 (32nd, -0.74)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ TOV%: 11.000 (47th, -0.26)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ TOV_per36: 1.515 (41st, -0.60)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Turnovers_BadPass: 19.000 (29th, -0.79)
✅✅✅✅✅ Turnovers_LostBall: 4.000 (8th, -1.04)
--- Usage ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ USG%: 16.100 (36th, -0.62)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FGA: 298.000 (34th, -0.72)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ FGA_per36: 11.573 (41st, -0.48)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ AST: 83.000 (33rd, -0.73)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST_per36: 3.223 (46th, -0.66)
=== Defense & Rebounding ===
--- Perimeter Defense ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ STL: 52.000 (58th, +0.01)
✅✅✅✅✅ STL%: 2.700 (93rd, +1.51)
✅✅✅✅✅ STL_per36: 2.019 (94th, +1.54)
--- Interior Defense ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ BLK: 17.000 (67th, -0.00)
✅✅✅✅▫️ BLK%: 1.700 (83rd, +0.81)
✅✅✅✅▫️ BLK_per36: 0.660 (86th, +0.86)
--- Team Defense ---
✅✅✅✅✅ DBPM: 2.000 (95th, +1.83)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ DWS: 1.500 (71st, +0.28)
--- Rebounding (Off) ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ ORB: 53.000 (76th, +0.67)
✅✅✅✅✅ ORB%: 6.000 (97th, +2.15)
✅✅✅✅✅ ORB_per36: 2.058 (97th, +2.33)
--- Rebounding (Def) ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ DRB: 132.000 (52nd, -0.19)
✅✅✅✅✅ DRB%: 15.800 (94th, +1.42)
✅✅✅✅✅ DRB_per36: 5.126 (93rd, +1.34)
--- Fouls ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Fouls Committed_Shoot: 38.000 (37th, -0.53)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Fouls Drawn_Shoot: 19.000 (26th, -0.70)
❌❌❌❌❌ Fouls Committed_Off.: 13.000 (95th, +1.77)
❌❌❌❌▫️ Fouls Drawn_Off.: 2.000 (15th, -0.81)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ PF: 108.000 (56th, +0.16)
❌❌❌❌❌ PF_per36: 4.194 (99th, +2.19)
=== Availability ===
--- Durability ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ G: 62.000 (51st, +0.31)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ MP: 927.000 (31st, -0.74)
=== Role ===
--- Shooting Profile ---
✅✅✅✅✅ % of FGA by Distance_0-3: 0.326 (91st, +1.59)
✅✅✅✅✅ % of FGA by Distance_3-10: 0.346 (98th, +2.33)
❌❌❌❌❌ % of FGA by Distance_10-16: 0.010 (3rd, -1.60)
❌❌❌❌❌ % of FGA by Distance_16-3P: 0.000 (3rd, -1.31)
✅✅✅✅✅ % of FGA by Distance_2P: 0.681 (93rd, +1.26)
❌❌❌❌❌ % of FGA by Distance_3P: 0.319 (8th, -1.26)
✅✅✅✅✅ Corner 3s_%3PA: 0.537 (94th, +2.16)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Corner 3s_3P%: 0.412 (56th, +0.20)
❌❌❌❌❌ Dist.: 10.100 (2nd, -2.00)
De’Anthony Melton
Everyone knows that his future performance is a mystery since he had ACL knee surgery on Dec 4 2024. If you believe in a recovery to pre-injury form, look at 2023. If you think he’ll be limited, look at 2024 (or worse).
How will Melton play? In short, no one knows anything.
My guess would be that his play would be comparable to his 2024 year when he was hampered by injuries. 2023 is a dream peak that we won’t see for at least a couple of years, if ever again.
But… if Melton were guaranteed to have a 2023 year again, then he would have been signed for way way more than GSW can afford. It’s only the uncertainty that is giving GSW a chance to sign him for the minimum (or at least below the Taxpayer Midlevel Exception).
De’Anthony Melton (2024), the realistic hope
Wikipedia says: Melton sustained a back injury during the 2023–24 season that limited his play to 38 games.
Given that limited playing time, it’s astonishing that he hoisted as many threes as he did. Melton took a ton of threes and made them at an average-ish rate. He took care of the ball, which is important with Steph Curry on the team.
And despite the injury, he had a really good Defensive BPM and very high steal rate.
De'Anthony Melton 2024 (Positional)
PPG 11.1, APG 3.0, RPG 3.7 FG% 0.386, 3P% 0.360, FT% 0.835
PG:5%SG:90% SF:6%
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=== Summary by Subcategory ===
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Impact
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ At Rim
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Dunking
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Midrange Accuracy
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ 3-Point Accuracy
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ 3-Point Volume
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Free Throw Accuracy
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Free Throw Volume
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Scoring
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Passing
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Ball Security
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Usage
✅✅✅✅▫️ Perimeter Defense
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Interior Defense
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Team Defense
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Rebounding (Off)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Rebounding (Def)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Fouls
❌❌❌▫️▫️ DurabilityThe gory details
=== Overall Impact ===
--- Impact ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ BPM: 0.500 (74th, +0.61)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ VORP: 0.700 (65th, +0.13)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ WS: 2.100 (49th, -0.20)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ WS/48: 0.099 (68th, +0.53)
✅✅✅✅✅ +/- Per 100 Poss_On-Off: 9.000 (96th, +1.84)
✅✅✅✅✅ +/- Per 100 Poss_OnCourt: 9.600 (98th, +1.67)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ PER: 13.400 (58th, +0.14)
=== Shooting ===
--- At Rim ---
❌❌❌❌❌ FG% by Distance_0-3: 0.538 (9th, -1.46)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Misc._Blkd: 22.000 (45th, -0.41)
--- Dunking ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Dunks_#: 10.000 (52nd, -0.24)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Dunks_%FGA: 0.028 (59th, -0.13)
--- Midrange Accuracy ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_3-10: 0.345 (22nd, -0.80)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FG% by Distance_10-16: 0.273 (12th, -0.95)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_16-3P: 0.333 (27th, -0.25)
--- 3-Point Accuracy ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ 3P%: 0.360 (41st, -0.05)
--- 3-Point Volume ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ 3PA: 214.000 (46th, -0.32)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ 3PA_per36: 7.531 (67th, +0.54)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ 3PAr: 0.594 (77th, +0.67)
--- Free Throw Accuracy ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ FT%: 0.835 (63rd, +0.42)
--- Free Throw Volume ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ FT: 66.000 (47th, -0.35)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ FTA: 79.000 (46th, -0.38)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ FT_per36: 2.323 (61st, +0.10)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ FTA_per36: 2.780 (58th, +0.05)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Misc._And1: 7.000 (45th, -0.43)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ FTr: 0.219 (65th, +0.23)
--- Scoring ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ TS%: 0.533 (22nd, -0.72)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ eFG%: 0.493 (20th, -0.86)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OBPM: -0.700 (52nd, -0.00)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ OWS: 0.800 (40th, -0.34)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ PTS_per36: 14.815 (45th, -0.31)
=== Playmaking ===
--- Passing ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST%: 15.400 (59th, +0.01)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Misc._PGA: 261.000 (47th, -0.47)
--- Ball Security ---
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ TOV: 39.000 (32nd, -0.70)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ TOV%: 9.000 (34th, -0.64)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ TOV_per36: 1.372 (34th, -0.59)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Turnovers_BadPass: 21.000 (35th, -0.66)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Turnovers_LostBall: 8.000 (22nd, -0.76)
--- Usage ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ USG%: 18.300 (48th, -0.20)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FGA: 360.000 (35th, -0.58)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ FGA_per36: 12.669 (47th, -0.16)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST: 114.000 (49th, -0.42)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ AST_per36: 4.012 (65th, +0.12)
=== Defense & Rebounding ===
--- Perimeter Defense ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ STL: 60.000 (73rd, +0.54)
✅✅✅✅✅ STL%: 2.900 (98th, +2.46)
✅✅✅✅✅ STL_per36: 2.111 (98th, +2.39)
--- Interior Defense ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ BLK: 16.000 (51st, -0.26)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ BLK%: 1.400 (69th, +0.22)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ BLK_per36: 0.563 (70th, +0.23)
--- Team Defense ---
✅✅✅✅✅ DBPM: 1.200 (92nd, +1.38)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ DWS: 1.400 (66th, +0.20)
--- Rebounding (Off) ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ ORB: 28.000 (45th, -0.38)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ ORB%: 3.000 (66th, +0.00)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ ORB_per36: 0.985 (67th, +0.02)
--- Rebounding (Def) ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ DRB: 113.000 (41st, -0.45)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ DRB%: 12.400 (72nd, +0.31)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ DRB_per36: 3.977 (70th, +0.27)
--- Fouls ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ Fouls Committed_Shoot: 33.000 (20th, -0.86)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Fouls Drawn_Shoot: 30.000 (41st, -0.47)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Fouls Committed_Off.: 3.000 (30th, -0.71)
❌❌❌❌▫️ Fouls Drawn_Off.: 2.000 (13th, -0.83)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ PF: 84.000 (44th, -0.42)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ PF_per36: 2.956 (72nd, +0.36)
=== Availability ===
--- Durability ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ G: 38.000 (13th, -1.29)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ MP: 1023.000 (38th, -0.65)
De’Anthony Melton (2023), the dream
We were robbed of this low-key statistical god. Melton was in fine form in 2022-23. He was an elite ball stealer, shot even more threes at an even better 3P%. He got it done on defense with outstanding defensive analytics.
But also on offense, he showed a good assist rate, effective shooting, and lots of minutes played, and I did not expect High Melton to be the High Priest of Rebounding. Just eye popping numbers.
De'Anthony Melton 2023 (Positional)
PPG 10.1, APG 2.6, RPG 4.1 FG% 0.425, 3P% 0.390, FT% 0.793
PG:22% SG:60% SF:18%
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=== Summary by Subcategory ===
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ Impact
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ At Rim
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Dunking
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Midrange Accuracy
✅✅✅▫️▫️ 3-Point Accuracy
✅✅✅▫️▫️ 3-Point Volume
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Free Throw Accuracy
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Free Throw Volume
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Scoring
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Passing
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Ball Security
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Usage
✅✅✅✅✅ Perimeter Defense
✅✅✅✅▫️ Interior Defense
✅✅✅✅✅ Team Defense
✅✅✅✅▫️ Rebounding (Off)
✅✅✅✅▫️ Rebounding (Def)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Fouls
✅✅✅✅▫️ DurabilityThe gory details
=== Overall Impact ===
--- Impact ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ BPM: 0.900 (84th, +0.71)
✅✅✅✅▫️ VORP: 1.600 (88th, +0.92)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ WS: 4.200 (80th, +0.74)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ WS/48: 0.095 (68th, +0.35)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_On-Off: -3.900 (23rd, -0.68)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ +/- Per 100 Poss_OnCourt: 2.900 (76th, +0.67)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ PER: 12.700 (54th, -0.12)
=== Shooting ===
--- At Rim ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FG% by Distance_0-3: 0.622 (24th, -0.57)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Misc._Blkd: 25.000 (58th, -0.12)
--- Dunking ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Dunks_#: 6.000 (44th, -0.40)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Dunks_%FGA: 0.011 (34th, -0.51)
--- Midrange Accuracy ---
❌❌❌❌▫️ FG% by Distance_3-10: 0.329 (12th, -1.10)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FG% by Distance_10-16: 0.292 (12th, -1.07)
✅✅✅✅▫️ FG% by Distance_16-3P: 0.529 (83rd, +0.75)
--- 3-Point Accuracy ---
✅✅✅▫️▫️ 3P%: 0.390 (74th, +0.57)
--- 3-Point Volume ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ 3PA: 403.000 (83rd, +0.98)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ 3PA_per36: 6.748 (56th, +0.23)
✅✅✅✅▫️ 3PAr: 0.619 (80th, +0.88)
--- Free Throw Accuracy ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ FT%: 0.793 (39th, -0.11)
--- Free Throw Volume ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ FT: 69.000 (52nd, -0.39)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ FTA: 87.000 (51st, -0.38)
❌❌❌❌▫️ FT_per36: 1.155 (19th, -0.86)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FTA_per36: 1.457 (21st, -0.88)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Misc._And1: 5.000 (30th, -0.69)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FTr: 0.134 (22nd, -0.89)
--- Scoring ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ TS%: 0.566 (46th, -0.00)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ eFG%: 0.546 (60th, +0.29)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OBPM: -0.700 (58th, -0.06)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ OWS: 1.100 (59th, -0.13)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ PTS_per36: 13.060 (22nd, -0.70)
=== Playmaking ===
--- Passing ---
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST%: 12.900 (46th, -0.42)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Misc._PGA: 492.000 (72nd, +0.38)
--- Ball Security ---
❌❌❌▫️▫️ TOV: 102.000 (76th, +0.41)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ TOV%: 12.900 (73rd, +0.40)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ TOV_per36: 1.708 (46th, -0.31)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Turnovers_BadPass: 56.000 (80th, +0.53)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Turnovers_LostBall: 26.000 (77th, +0.37)
--- Usage ---
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ USG%: 16.400 (34th, -0.59)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ FGA: 651.000 (70th, +0.25)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ FGA_per36: 10.900 (30th, -0.66)
✅✅▫️▫️▫️ AST: 197.000 (70th, +0.31)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ AST_per36: 3.299 (45th, -0.41)
=== Defense & Rebounding ===
--- Perimeter Defense ---
✅✅✅✅✅ STL: 126.000 (100th, +3.04)
✅✅✅✅✅ STL%: 2.900 (98th, +2.62)
✅✅✅✅✅ STL_per36: 2.110 (98th, +2.51)
--- Interior Defense ---
✅✅✅✅✅ BLK: 41.000 (96th, +1.93)
✅✅✅✅▫️ BLK%: 1.800 (89th, +1.36)
✅✅✅✅▫️ BLK_per36: 0.687 (85th, +1.19)
--- Team Defense ---
✅✅✅✅✅ DBPM: 1.600 (98th, +1.84)
✅✅✅✅✅ DWS: 3.100 (97th, +2.24)
--- Rebounding (Off) ---
✅✅✅✅✅ ORB: 69.000 (92nd, +1.53)
✅✅✅✅▫️ ORB%: 3.900 (87th, +0.95)
✅✅✅✅▫️ ORB_per36: 1.155 (84th, +0.70)
--- Rebounding (Def) ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ DRB: 243.000 (89th, +1.10)
✅✅✅✅▫️ DRB%: 13.100 (85th, +0.70)
✅✅✅✅▫️ DRB_per36: 4.069 (81st, +0.49)
--- Fouls ---
❌❌❌❌❌ Fouls Committed_Shoot: 94.000 (97th, +1.78)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Fouls Drawn_Shoot: 29.000 (41st, -0.53)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ Fouls Committed_Off.: 9.000 (72nd, +0.26)
❌▫️▫️▫️▫️ Fouls Drawn_Off.: 8.000 (46th, -0.44)
❌❌❌❌❌ PF: 191.000 (99th, +1.74)
❌❌❌❌▫️ PF_per36: 3.198 (84th, +0.77)
=== Availability ===
--- Durability ---
✅✅✅✅▫️ G: 77.000 (90th, +1.17)
✅✅✅✅▫️ MP: 2150.000 (81st, +1.04)
=== Role ===
--- Shooting Profile ---
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_0-3: 0.183 (58th, +0.01)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_3-10: 0.131 (30th, -0.59)
❌❌❌❌▫️ % of FGA by Distance_10-16: 0.037 (16th, -0.99)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_16-3P: 0.026 (23rd, -0.83)
❌❌❌▫️▫️ % of FGA by Distance_2P: 0.381 (21st, -0.88)
✅✅✅✅▫️ % of FGA by Distance_3P: 0.619 (80th, +0.88)
✅▫️▫️▫️▫️ Corner 3s_%3PA: 0.241 (60th, -0.04)
❌❌▫️▫️▫️ Corner 3s_3P%: 0.371 (35th, -0.31)
✅✅✅▫️▫️ Dist.: 17.800 (70th, +0.56)APRIBOT began as Clunky Comps, which I adapted for the NBA, but the comparisons just didn’t feel that informative, so I scrapped that part and I tweaked her into the current form.
The green boxes represent each decile (10 percentiles) of that stat. The comparison group is a distribution of players with listed positions, counted in proportion to the Basketball-Reference estimate position distribution of the scouted. This is because, for instance, Centers are supposed to get a lot of rebounds, so you want the stats (and z-scores) to reflect marginal improvements on a typical player in that position.
The categories and subcategories just came out of my head so I am open to suggestions.
This is an excellent analysis that suffers from subtlety and nuance. How are fans supposed to make uninformed bold statements if they have this analysis at their disposal?
However, only slightly touched upon are system effects. As you point out, Seth Curry with Charlotte was a bad defender, but what if he played with the inspirational defenders on the Dubs?
Surely, we can make stuff up about how our culture and coach will dredge the least bit of talent and motivation from a player and turn him into a valuable cog in a winning machine. Where's the hyperbole! Where are the improbable extrapolations from rare signs of brilliance? (And, no, I'm not thinking about my golf game - all of my putts will go in, just like that last one).
I'm going to admit that I only sort of understand the details of the analysis, but I find it very cool. As long as APRIBOT doesn't turn against us, this is awesome.