Bobby Marks on how the Warriors can (and can't) improve the roster
Starting to think about the future
I thought this was a surprisingly good interview on Willard & Dibs on 95.7 with Bobby Marks, with great questions and answers. Bobby Marks is a past GM with the Nets, and he is a good representative of the NBA conventional wisdom.
I include extended quotes below.
Q. How viable are the Warriors in terms of acquiring a big name should he become available?
This is different than years before. This is different than combining two salaries and going out and get a $45 million player or a $50 million player. Where they are right now, it's not viable. Where they are right now, from now until June 30th, it's not viable. You're basically in a frozen transaction period where you ended the season with your finances, these new apron rules that started on Monday, the inability to take back more money, the inability to aggregate contracts, meaning combining salaries.
So if you wanted to go out and get a $48 million player, you wouldn't be able to combine Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, for example. So for now, you're kind of in a holding pattern until you figure out what you're gonna do with Chris Paul and what the price tag, if the goal is to bring back Klay Thompson. And then you can start figuring out as far as where your salaries are. Some of the restrictions that are really strict right now start to loosen in everything right now.
[from later] So July 1st is when basically the clock resets as far as where you are financially. July 1st is a date to circle. Chris's contract gets guaranteed on June 28th. So you'll know by the end of June, as far as where Golden State will be going into free agency as far as from a flexibility standpoint.
From a draft equity standpoint, you can trade your first round pick starting the night of the draft. So you can move 2025 and 2027 or 2026 and 2028. You can also move that pick that's owed to the Wizards that you can move it if it's in the top 20 here. So from an equity standpoint, you've got pieces. It's just a matter of loosening some of those restrictions.
And I think that's a big reason why Joe Lacob has been on the record saying that there basically has to be some type of budget here.
Q. How much does the Chris Paul contract play into that? Is there a way that that contract could be used as a resource in a trade by guaranteeing it and finding somebody to take it on?
That's what happened last year with Phoenix when they wind up moving Chris, his contract at the time was only partially guaranteed and they wind up getting Bradley Beal in the deal. You could do that. I think it's just a matter of is ownership in the front office willing to absorb more salary. If you're moving $30 million, are you willing to take back a $30 million guy that's guaranteed? I think that's the kind of the unknown right now, because if you just waive Chris, yeah, you have the ability to get under the luxury tax or get under either apron, even if you bring back Klay.
Q. Bobby, how much is Klay Thompson worth on the open market?
I heard somebody say the non-tax mid-level and I was like, wait a minute. Like I know he was bad the other night in Sacramento. But I thought he had been really good up into that point, kind of since the All-star break here, I still think he's a $25 - $30 million player. I really do. For three years? Probably not.
I'm going to just give an example. If the Magic fall short and they need shooting desperately, would you pay Klay two for $62M, for $50M somewhere in that range. I think he's a North of $20 million guy.
Q. Can the Warriors afford him at that price point that you're laying out, if it's two and $50M, can Joe Lacob afford to bring him in and still stay below either apron, let alone the tax number.
Yes, they can. Because if you take Chris off, that gets you down to about $141M [payroll]. You add 25 million there, I could see a $166M, the aprons like $177M. You could still add a couple of minimum guys here. Some of those restrictions that you have right now begin to get lifted and it gives you the more flexibility to go out and do another deal if you want it to.
Q. When you look at assets they possibly could package at that point, how is Andrew Wiggins viewed around the league at $26.2M next year?
Yeah, it's a little bit of a rich contract. there were moments when he was pretty good. And then there was moments like the Sacramento games. And there were probably more moments like that this season, three years at 75 million dollars… is a rich number. But it's a matter of what else is coming back with it? Is there another player? Is there a young player? Is there a draft pick here? Every team needs a 20 to 25 million dollar player to put in a deal if the goal is to get a thirty five, forty million dollar guy. It's a trade component that a team could use. The value of it as far as on the court is probably not where it was, certainly from two years ago.
Q. If the Warriors get to a spot where they can get into a conversation about a big name player, do they have the assets that another team would want without including Jonathan Kuminga?
Yes, you got Podziemski, you've got Moody, and you've got draft picks and Trayce Jackson-Davis, right? Take Kuminga out of the equation. Draft equity and then that big contract there. So I certainly think so. I think that from the young players perspective, you do. I don't think you have to put Kuminga in, it's just a matter of kind of who that player is who's available.
Q. When you look at the various aprons, and Joe Lacob has been very adamant about trying to get out of that second apron, what's the big punishment that lies in the future for Golden State if they continue to be a second apron violator?
What will happen is if you finish next season over the second apron, your first round pick in 2032 gets frozen, okay? So what that means is that you won't be able to use that in a trade. If you're in the apron, basically three years in a row, so you're starting with the '24-'25 season, your draft pick in the seventh year will get moved from wherever it is to the back of the first round. So let's say, seven or eight years from now, Golden State's got the first pick in the draft. Well, that all of a sudden becomes the 30th pick in the draft because you've been over the apron for three years in a row.
Q. Bobby, let's talk about Chris Paul specifically for a second because I know this one is a little bit intricate. Can you explain to our audience what exactly the Warriors can do with that contract, other than, as you said, obviously just waiving him?
Yeah. I mean, in any other probably season, I think it's a trade asset here. What you can't do is, because it's not guaranteed, you can't trade Chris Paul out right now and take back a $30 million player because you're basically sending out zero as far as in salary because there's no protection to it here. How much is ownership willing to absorb if there is a player out there that they can go get? If it's not Andrew Wiggins, if it's Chris Paul and now you're adding draft picks and now you're adding your young players here, that's a big trade asset here. But there's certainly a big cost to guaranteeing that.
There's a cost to running back the same group. And I said that before the Sacramento game, I thought you could have made an argument that, hey, based on how they played at the end of the year, 10-2 and 27-12 in the last 39, really good on the road. Now who's going to be the odd man out? And I do think it's going to be Chris unless, as I said, ownership is willing to take back more money and take back more money means another player. Also bring back Klay Thompson.
Q. From a practical standpoint, is there even a suitor out there that would want Chris Paul at 30 million to give up their $30 million asset?
Probably not unless you're getting something back, something good. I mean we saw it last year, there was the likelihood that Chris was going to get waived in Phoenix. And then all of a sudden Bradley Beal becomes available. But the difference was last year you were able to combine salaries. This year, you're not. So that makes it a little bit more challenging. So if there was a $50 million guy out there to go out and get, put him and Wiggins together, the likelihood is that you still exceed that second apron and that won't be allowed.
Can they afford Klay Thompson [at $24-$25M] and also find a way to trade for a younger big name player?
No, they can't. … You're basically right at the luxury tax. You sign Klay and you move Chris and you take back a $30 million player. The likelihood is that you're going to be deep in the tax. You're going to be in the apron and that's something ownership has pretty much said no to unless, hey, things change! I mean, things are pretty fluid. We don't know who that next disgruntled player will be, but the challenge is basically you got to go dollar for dollar on every trade.
Q. So then let's take the Warriors at their word, because they've all said in the last 48 hours they want to keep Klay. When you hear them say that, what does that mean to you as far as their roster reconstruction?
I think what it says is that they want to keep him, but there's a price to keep him at, and they're probably not willing to go back over that price. You've got Moody and Brandin as kind of fallbacks if things don't work. You've got Curry on two more years and Green's got three more years. Eventually, you're probably going to have to rip the bandaid off this. And if he's step one to doing that, the challenge comes with: if Curry was in the last year of his deal, then you could say, well, maybe you do it one more, run it back one more year. Steph's got two more years left. And you still want to put a competitive roster, and it's a matter of kind of having faith in those two young players that you can do it. As I said, if the price is too steep to bring him back.
Q. When you talk about ripping the bandaid off, when that actually happens and Jonathan Kuminga is still here, what does that extension look like? He's going into his last year of a team option at 7.6. If he gets extended this offseason, how much do you think he gets and for how long?
Well, rookie extensions are the most challenging ones out there because, Kuminga and his agent aren't competing against anybody. There's nobody with cap space. It's really just the day before the regular season starts. Basically, Golden State's got all the leverage. next off season. My good friend, Brian Windhorst, always says, it's kind of like the fun extensions, right? Like you're basically buying upside. It's a stock you're hoping that that player can take two steps and he can become an all-star. I think his number is probably in that, in that 5 for $130M range. I don't think he's a max player, which would be 5 for 225. But I do think he's probably a 25 to 30 million player. Because I do think the upside is there to be a top starter / all-star type player in the league.
[Omitted stuff about Markkanen, LeBron and other possible trade targets.]
Q. Bobby, this is all great stuff. What if we just pull back from these specifics and ask you this, with the finances as they are and the names as they are, in your opinion, what are the chances that the Warriors find a way to compete at a high level next year?
Well, here's the thing, 46 wins, I know that by Golden State standards and not by their own fan standards, but it's basically like you're #3 or #4. You’re a Draymond Green suspension away from being the fourth seed. I mean, that's the reality of it, or the three seed, because how good they were on the road and how good they were in the second half, I think that's the struggle you have, right? Like there is, you're not like a rip it down and build it back up. You're 46 wins. I mean, tomorrow night, New Orleans wins 49 games and could be sitting home, second most wins in franchise history, with Golden State. So the West is brutal, taking two steps back in the West will set you back for a long term. So I don't think this is a teardown thing. I do think you can compete in the Western Conference, but it's going to make some hard financial decisions and probably a big step in development with your young players.
"Jamal Murray made a shot"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyfNY09TtYg
#WastingAD'sPrime
Fun night of basketball. Knicks - 76ers was close and competitive, and not too thuggish. I ended up rooting for Donte and his team, though didn’t care much either way. Light entertainment.
OTOH when Denver was down 20 I calmly asserted that LA would run out of gas and Denver would be in it at the end. Jokic is such a pleasure to watch, thank you sir for making me seem a savant. And that Murray buzzer beater was awesome. Great fun!