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Wild Draft Day: Chris Paul for Poole and Rollins, drafting Podziemski, trading Patrick Baldwin Jr for Trayce Jackson-Davis
the rise of Win Now and Analytics Drafting
So, to recap
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
2030 1st round (top 20 protected)
2027 2nd round
Javan Johnson (likely exhibit 10 contract)
Mike Dunleavy Jr. Press Conference on the Draft
Slater in a bunch of tweets:
Mike Dunleavy on Warriors entering free agency
I think we're in a good spot with roster spots first and foremost. I think you always gotta be mindful of those and maybe heading into this week, there was some concern about not enough or overloading.
So I always want to have a few bullets in free agency. All we're gonna be able to have is minimums, so we gotta work with that. We're looking to add veteran players that can fit into our rotation. I think I mentioned the other day: shooting. Shooting is always a premium. Two-way play always a premium.
I think it's obvious that we need to add some size. So some size and skill specifically shooting would go a long way and compliment our front court.
Brandon Podziemski at the 19th pick. A guy we've targeted for quite some time. He was much higher than that on our board. And so anytime I think you come away with a player that's eight, nine spots on your board ahead of where you picked, you feel great about it. And so we picked up a player that we think fits the way we play.
We like his skillset, his ability to shoot, his ability to pass, play-make, tremendous rebounder. And maybe more than anything, a competitor. He takes it to another level as a competitor.
Why take Podz over Whitmore?
As far as Whitmore goes, we had our board, and we took the highest available guy on our board and that was Brandin. We’re really happy with the pick. A lot of talented guys went throughout, some slid, some went higher than expected. That's kind of the draft. But I think we ended up with a guy we wanted. We're really comfortable in 19.
Addressing size problem?
As far as addressing size, you know, being realistic this organization has never had any huge players. We've relied on toughness and skill and whether that's Draymond, that's Looney.
Trayce fits a little bit in that regard. He's 6-8, but he plays a lot bigger than he is. We're always looking for size, but I think we prioritize skill more so.
Mike Dunleavy said the plan is to have Trayce Jackson-Davis on the 15-man roster. “We’re not overly loaded in the frontcourt.” Said he had TJD much higher on their board.
Jason Dumas adds: Interesting comments from Mike Dunleavy Jr. when asked if he thinks Brandin Podziemski will be able to contribute next season. Went on to say Brandin is a competitor and he expects him to try and prove him wrong.
I’ve been around the league a long time and take it for personal experience. I would never draft anybody expecting them to play right away. I just think coming in as a rookie in the NBA, there's too many challenges. There's too much going on. If you can find a way to play great, it's gravy on top, but I don't care if you're 19, 21, 25, there's an amazing adjustment that that has to take place.
Everybody does it at their own speed, so we're gonna bring these guys along, we're gonna develop 'em. If they can play right away, great. But as far as we're concerned, no expectation in year one. It's just unrealistic. And, you know, if they do end up playing well, then it's a bonus.
Mike Dunleavy called it a very successful day for the organization.
Bob Myers was not in the building today. Seems he had no role in the draft process. He is technically under contract until the 30th. Mike said they did speak today.
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The Live Reaction Threads
For maximum entertainment, read all the live comments in
Brandin Podziemski drafted at #19 by Warriors! Update: GSW drafts Trayce Jackson-Davis at #57; Patrick Baldwin Jr traded to Wizards. This also has a bunch of video and text scouting reports on the new Warriors.
I’m going to append all my commentary as the day unfolded.
Rare Apricot Draft Board Success
First, I feel very good about my Draft Tourney which was rather hard to put together. In early May, I took 11 players from mock drafts as being in our range. But then I added five Wild Card entrants who were at the time mocked as being too low to take:
Brandin Podziemski (our actual pick)
Trayce Jackson-Davis (our actual pick)
Bilal Coulibaly (#7)
Noah Clowney (#21)
Sidy Cissoko (#44)
So if you followed our Draft Tourney, you were fully caught up on who these weird draft picks were.
I will also add that my big board at void’s ended up having my Top 8 be 5 lottery picks, 1 other out of reach and one second rounder and… TADA our two picks. After a streak of three years where GSW drafted my last choice (this year it would have been G.G. Jackson and Cam Whitmore), this was the rare time my board is in tune with both our team and the NBA.
Dereck Lively (lottery, #12)
Jordan Hawkins (lottery, #14)
Bilal Coulibaly (lottery #7)
Trayce Jackson-Davis (our guy at #57)
Leonard Miller (don’t know how he slipped to #33)
Brandin Podziemski (our guy at #19)
Jett Howard (lottery #11)
Jalen Hood-Schifino (#17 out of reach)
Apricot’s Live Commentary
Chris Paul for Jordan Poole and Ryan Rollins trade
haha, welcome to the good part of the NBA! The bad part is when your team sucks, you hate all the players and the owner and management. The good part is when you have players you're invested in loving or hating, and all the pain that comes with it
This is a damned inconsiderate trade. Don't they know how long it will take to scrub everything I've ever written about CP3
[To ServantOfLuna on using the monkey’s paw to get Poole traded] That monkey is truly pawing the crap out of us with this trade
I'm still in the shock phase, but a distant rational voice in my head says that if you ignore 1. my feelings about Chris Paul, 2. my assumption that Poole could attract more in trade... (we really had to throw in picks?) then this trade rocks.
Poole was a dazzling overpaid Jamal Crawford who we couldn't play in the playoffs and who has a permanent grudge against Dray.
Ryan Rollins I've never been sold on.
CP3 is a (evil) basketball genius with an expiring (soon) contract. This move makes it much more possible financially and capwise to keep the championship core together.
But all the other parts of my brain are busy shoving that rational part into a closet, so I'm not at all well
In case you were wondering what happens next decade: Zach Lowe: The 2030 GSW first-round pick going to Washington is top-20 protected, sources tell ESPN.
Clippers and Lakers apparently really wanted Chris Paul. I assume GSW is working the phones with them to see what they’ll pony up.
** I'm told Chris Paul is playing for Golden State. This isn't a part of another deal. CP3 is a Warrior. - Marcus Thompson II destroying all hope
Never anything toxic about optimism. The alternative is agony about something you have no control over. I go for gallows humor myself while privately eating a whole box of popsicles
Can’t help reading a lot more now into Dunleavy’s seemingly gentle comments about fixing the chemistry “internally… or externally” as his “today we settle all family business”. Kuminga would be next…
Lacob (in a dark room): I don’t want anything to happen to them while Bob Myers is still with us.
I’m not going to believe it until I see CP3 show up at training camp
This trade was so shocking that I actually forgot the draft was happening in a few hours.
Pain not seen since HOU fans spent seasons trashing Russ in favor of Harden only to have to root for Russ.
Haha, Uncle Alchemy is SO PSYCHED that Poole is gone. It reminds me of when D-Lo was on the team…. I had negative motivation making videos about him.
Still emotionally grappling with CP3 news, but the scheme fit is ok. CP3 is best running the PNR, but Steph, Klay and Wiggs are all good off-ball. CP3 has decent career catch and shoot % on low volume. CP3 is also a (evil) bball genius. Now is he washed? Can he stay healthy?
hahaha CP3 was already voted Honorary Warriors Villain For Life. Will he be the first in history to achieve that *and* Honorary Warrior For Life?
The countdown towards #19
Scoot at #3. Will be interesting to see what happens next with Dame.
DRAFT SPOILERS ARE FINE HERE. YOU ARE NOW WARNED. I'm tracking the draft picks in relation to our Draft Tourney at a live updating Google Doc here
This live-document was pretty good. I’ll definitely do it again. Maybe for Free Agency Week I can do a similar free agent tracker.
I'm following Shams for the early scoop by the way. Amen to HOU at #4
YOOOOO the first wild pick. IND at #7 is picking Bilal Coulibaly. SACRE BLEU
And to think in May I had to add him to the Tourney as a special wild card entry as NOBODY had him drafted before #20
WAS swapped #8 + 2 second rounders for #7 to drink the Coulibaly Aid
Luckily LAL can only take one of our guys
Dallas is trading Davis Bertans and Cason Wallace at No. 10 to OKC, sources said.
I'm going to be pissed if Cam Whitmore is the one who falls out of the lottery to #19 [Narrator: he jinxed himself.]
YOOOOOOOOOOO. to all the Jett doubters, ORL takes him at #11.
GOODBYE LIVELY, THE DREAM IS OVER
In case you're having FOMO with Lively, here's Ben Collins on his team DAL drafting Lively: ** My team missed the playoffs on purpose to draft Willie Cauley Stein Jr.
[Why is TOR taking so much time?] Maybe trying to negotiate a deal? Maybe Shams doesn't have contacts in Canada
TOR TAKES #13 GRADEY D. Y'all will have to find new material
DOH, New Orleans gets Jordan Hawkins at #14
Now my personal Tourney Top 3 are off the board, which means I have great taste I guess
Now almost certain that a projected lottery pick will fall to GSW. One of Cam Whitmore Kobe Bufkin Keyonte George Nick Smith unless they all are taken consecutively #15-#18
NOOOOOOOOOO Bufkin gone to ATL at #15
UTA takes Keynote George at #16
[on impatient comments] settle down or I'll turn this draft around all the way back to Wembanyama
Lakers are selecting Jalen Hood-Schifino at No. 17.
Still on the board with #18 on the clock. Cam Whitmore Nick Smith Leonard Miller Brandin Podziemski Trayce Jackson-Davis Rayan Rupert Kris Murray Noah Clowney Colby Jones Sidy Cissoko Dariq Whitehead Brice Sensabaugh G.G. Jackson Jaime Jaquez (B) Julian Strawther (B)
I absolutely jinxed things by praying Whitmore did not fall to GSW. This is going to be 4 straight years GSW takes my last choice...
Right now... praying for a trade down
YOU'LL HAVE TO SIT DOWN FOR THIS... JAIME JAQUEZ TO THE HEAT at #18
Cam Whitmore has mystery medical issues.
TRADE DOWN clap clap TRADE DOWN clap clap
PODZ NATION ASSEMBLE at #19
I have the feeling I'm going to have irrational good feelings about Podz. I hope I can dig into some game video of him soon.
Haha people here are salty about this Podz pick. I am cautiously optimistic.
Okay, I'm going to run out and get some dinner. If there is some more trading, I'll try to update this article…
At this point [around pick 40] is it too much to hope that Trayce Jackson-Davis has a handshake deal to come to GSW as an undrafted free agent? [Narrator: he and Belilaugh spoke it into existence.]
desperate minds think alike
[on drafting TJD at #57 via trade to WAS] ooof I didn't want to give up PBJ though... oh well
[why trade PBJ for TJD??] TJD was one of the most productive players in college basketball. PBJ was a guy who was terrible in college, not good in the G-League, so-so in spot minutes with GSW occasionally showing no fear in gunning threes, but also could not guard a roller chair. I, like many, had high hopes for PBJ, so I didn't want him gone, but that's the case without sentiment.
I can easily imagine TJD passing out of the post to all the off-ball cutters and then making actual post moves to bail out the possession. I can imagine him being effective on the short roll. I can also imagine him being a rim protector. I don't know if he'll stick or be overwhelmed by game speed, but he's just perfect for what the Warriors want to do. He just might be too short to guard centers and too slow to stop getting picked on by guards.
Should I delete the last sentence? I thought I was doing a great job hyping up the second to last pick in the NBA Draft! :D
Dray is an all-time outlier in mid-sized players guarding bigs. Not fair to TJD to use Dray as a benchmark
I don't want to buzzkill -- I'm already on record as super psyched about getting TJD -- but for those stats [showing TJD is athletic] , 1st, that's just among centers in a weak center class, 2nd, TJD is an older player who should be crushing athletically. Third, if TJD was practically the most productive player in college and he was somehow the most athletic in every dimension, how could he practically go undrafted? Because people think he's too short to guard bigs and too slow to guard wings and not athletic enough to overwhelm on offense.
Overall on the draft
From a strict emotional perspective, I am lukewarm but cautiously optimistic on adding Podz and very excited we added TJD in the second round.
Warriors take TJD with #57 pick, trade PBJ to WAS. A big victory for the analytics department, as Trayce and Brandin (#19) are two of the most productive college players that look not athletic enough for the NBA.
Yes, TJD is athletic in the sense he can get up for lobs and block shots. It's fairer to say he's considered too short and too slow on the perimeter, plus bad jumper. I'm personally thrilled about the pick
I’m not saying that the analytics group has taken over or anything weird like that. The whole concept of Myers vs Dunleavy drafts is really jumping to conclusions. However, just to emphasize how much analytics models love these picks, you can look at this nice comparison graphic of multiple models.
Podz was rated the #9 prospect in aggregate by models, with one model rating him #2 and one rating him #3.
TJD was rated the #30 prospect with a couple of enthusiastic models rating him #2 and #9.
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