Wiggins will be the odd man out - Alas Phood Fight speaks

By popular demand, elevating this comment

There has been a lot of conversation about what the Warriors will do at the end of the season, assuming that they cannot afford to sign all of the following to big contracts and hence have to trade one of them: Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole.

DubmanE @DubMnE

I think this is the closing 5. Steph Klay Poole Wiggins Dray #GoldBlooded #DubNation

This is not a conversation I particularly want to have, as I think the Warriors will wait and see what happens this year.

• Is GSW still a contender worth keeping together?

• How is each one playing?

• Is Poole progressing?

• Is Wiggins progressing?

• Does one of the rookies make a leap and make one of the starters expendable? Etc etc.

However, it clearly is a conversation many of YOU want to have. So I am highlighting this well-written comment by Alas Phood Fight (17 ♡) which covers a lot of ground.

Alas Phood Fight speaks

Wiggins will be the odd man out. Nothing personal, but after a couple weeks of serious hand-wringing this is what I came up with. I will make the points short, because there are a lot of them.

Why not Klay? If you had to ask this question, you missed the boat. Like Curry, expect Klay to retire a Warrior (playing his final year in the league with the Lakers as a tribute to his Dad & Kobe doesn’t count if he chooses to do so.). He got paid handsomely for 2.5 years of not playing, he loves it here, he will work something out with Bob. Klay scored over 30 pts in about 20% of his games in the regular season. He finished 2nd on the team in 3pt%, he logged more minutes in the playoffs than any other player including Wiggins. 8th in NBA Jersey sales and outside income (16m-18m annually). Thank you, Anta & Kaiser for bringing us “Healthy Sneakers Klay”. He’s a Splash Bros. And he is only going to get better. The Warriors wouldn’t dream of pushing Klay out, one of, if not the most liked figure in all sports.

Why not Dray? I tried. I am a devout Dray supporter and I tried for weeks to concoct a good enough argument for moving on from Dray. Then I re-watched Gm 6 vs Boston. And Gm 5 vs Dallas. And Game 6 vs Memphis. And Gm 5 vs Denver. Dray was a shoe-in for DPOY before he got hurt. Are his skills diminishing? Yes. But not overnight. Do the Dubs have a better chance of winning a Chip the next 3 years with Dray? Yes. Until the trio of Steph-Klay-Dray are actually beaten by another team in a series (when they suit up for all games), you can’t split them up, period. There is just something otherworldly about this trio and what happens on a basketball court when they are playing together. You don’t close the kitchen when you still have names on the waiting list. Those would be the names of more NBA players about to get served.

Why not Poole? Smallest projected contract of the 3, so losing him would help the least. Poole is a legitimate 1 or 2. As Steph and Klay naturally take more games off, the Dubs don’t skip a beat with Poole starting in either position. Poole has IT. He has that IT factor. He isn’t a follower, blending in and playing his pre-determined role. He made his role on this team. He is a leader, although he is taking a natural backseat to the core. He is an instigator. Watch him in these playoffs. He had Marcus Smart visibly frustrated and off his game pulling the same stunts on Smart that he has been pulling on other opponents his whole career. This in his 3rd year. Yes, we have JK, Wiseman & Moody. But which one of those is going to lead the charge, make things spicy, get in the face of opponents, be the fierce competitor? Imagine a team of Moody, Wiggins, JK & Wiseman. A lot of talent. But who is their emotional leader? Poole has the playing style of Curry and the emotional makeup of Dray. He is the son and heir.

Why Wiggins? This is not intended to denigrate Wiggins. He has been awesome. I love what he has brought to the team. Losing any of these 4 sucks, but someone has to draw the short straw.

Inertia: His recent play may have altered some assessments of his value, but losing Wiggs was always the plan. Retain the 4th Max player slot in the Durant-Russel trade. We got an additional draft pick in the Wiggs-Russell trade. Use both our draft picks on wings with projected defensive upside with the hope that one will pan out to take over for Wiggins at the end of his contract (or the trade everyone talked about). The Dubs would have a hard time maintaining that 4th Max slot beyond Wiggins’ contract because of the high starting salaries of their 3 new lottery picks, and that doesn’t even take into account Poole’s meteoric rise to stardom. Thus, since it has always been a thought that Wiggs might move on, by trade or some other means, it wouldn’t come as a shock to anyone if it finally happened.

Playoffs vs Regular Season: Wiggs showed up for the ‘Offs in a big way. Hat’s off. But I assert that it is an outlier (too short a sample size) and that his regular season should be what we look at. To Wiggs credit, he quickly learned how to be a tremendous complimentary player once he was on the court with a healthy core. He is a perfect fit. He is awesome. But that’s partly the problem. He is fitting into something else, and that something else is the Core. And the Core creates the kind of spacing that enhances the things that Wiggins does best. Wiggins has been sprinkled with Gold Dust, but we shouldn’t forget where that comes from. It the core. I think his regular season stats will be a much better predictor of his future play than his playoff stats.

Buy Low, Sell High: We got him when no-one in the world wanted him, so much so that someone had to give us Kuminga just to take him. He is now an All-Star starter, a Champion, and many pundits had him ranking as the 2nd best player in the playoffs. He is now a highly sought-after commodity, and a team will likely have to give up a player and a draft pick to get him. Imagine getting 2 lottery picks for Wiggins, one on his coming in, another on his going out? If ever there was a Buy Low, Sell High moment, it is fast upon us.

Replacement player: Klay split his time on the court between shooting guard and small forward 50/50, in the regular season and playoffs. I would expect this to be routine for the rest of his career. After that, we need 32 minutes at small forward. Currently, we have Moses Moody, JK & Patrick Baldwin in the wings. What minutes would be easier to replace? Jordan Poole’s? No. Draymond’s? No. You won’t get someone as good as Wiggins immediately, but you can get a lot closer to doing a good imitation of Wiggs than you could either Poole or Dray.

Player Value: Wiggins at his age would probably command the highest contract of these 4 players (Klay injury history being a potential issue). Therefore, moving off of his potential salary would have the biggest positive impact on the cap.

Intangibles: Wiggins is a robot. He is an iron man. He is Steady Eddy. He is a great complimentary player. But that’s just it. You may be out of mayo, but you will still eat your burger. If you don’t have any meat, you’re not gonna slap some mayo on a burger bun and go to town. Condiments enhance the burger. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some mayo. But not that much. As great as he is, he will always be a complimentary piece, and being the only one on this list is what makes him the odd man out.

Sorry Wiggs. Love that smile. I will always be a fan. I just don’t think it will be for the Dubs for too much longer.