I've been a paying member of this site from Day 1 and am a huge fan of Mr. Apricot, Duby, and Daniel. All three are spectacularly good writers and it is a privilege to wake up to their musings, plus the extremely welcome occasional contributions of others like Joe Viray.
I have been a Warriors fan as long as you have. I cherish my memories of the Patrick O'Bryant/Todd Fuller/Choke That Coach era and $10 seats at Oracle. I have been a man of many handles here, but digging the BP2 thing so far. (I assume given your bio, you'd dig it if I used the verb "dig.") I have zero emotional attachment to the rookie, although I took a semester of Polish in college and can actually pronounce his name correctly, which is cool. If he turns out to be Something, I will proudly serve as governor of Podz Island and get anyone who wants it property there, as long as you Respect My Authority. If he doesn't, I'll drop the BP2 thing like a hot potato and ask my Yet Another Handle Handler (YAHH)(TM) software to come up with something new.
My dad advised me to refuse sedation for the must-see-TV of the colo-cam. I checked the box on the form, the receptionist gave me a "nice knowin-ya" look. Then on the table the Asian doc sternly related how other folks who refused had had to quit and reschedule due to the agony, yadda, yadda. I stood firm, and then the doc broke into smile and said "in my country nobody gets sedation for this". I proceeded to enjoy the show without any pain at all. It reminded me of that old flick Fantastic Voyage (well, except no Raquel Welch).
Does a good job comparing and contrasting MM & JK; Moody’s game is a better fit with what the Warriors typically do offensively, but Kuminga brings a whole ‘nother dimension. He goes on to talk about JFK has been working his ass off and his preseason numbers, and what he needs to do to keep himself on the floor.
Closing: “No matter what, it plainly visible to everyone the kid is going to be a star. It’s just a matter of when? The tools are too insane and the leaps that he’s taking season by season…you can’t deny it. It might take another 4 or 5 years, but Jonathan Kuminga has All Star in his future.”
All-Stars are starters. When will JK crack the starting rotation?
It looks like all signs point to Klay re-signing. If that's the case, when could JK start? If that's the case, the earliest a starting spot would open up is 26-'27, if Wiggs or Dray decline their option. If they both pick up the option, all starting spots are filled until '27-28.
Imo the fundamental tension facing the Warriors this season is that the Curry/CP3/Klay trio is likely not good enough defensively against the top teams. Curry isn't going anywhere, so this means that either CP3 or Klay will probably need to be benched depending on what the situation calls for. I'm thinking Kerr will have to play sub-optimal lineups in the regular season to keep spirits up. But it will come to a head in the playoffs. If I'm Klay I might be kinda annoyed with getting benched because if CP3 was someone like Jrue Holiday (no I'm not saying that this trade was available to the Warriors, just using a hypothetical), playing together to close games would be very seamless and it's more a function of CP3 than my own ability. Curry/CP3/Wiggins/Thompson/Green can resolve that tension against lineups where they can get away with Klay playing the 4 defensively, but there are probably matchups where it won't work.
I think the Warriors have the tools to win, but it's going to require a serious coaching job from Kerr to keep everyone happy about it. That is, unless this is a repeat of 2015-2016 where the closing lineup barely matters because the game is over by the end of the third quarter lol.
I think the tension around starting will go away, and that's really only an issue for the closing lineup. Eventually I expect CP3 to take a backseat there, but that's up to Klay to be effective and someone else to grab a spot.
Klay's the only guy I really worry about an ego issue this year.
Dray would not like going to the bench, but I think he'd do it. Plus, it's incredibly unlikely, given his symbiotic relationship with Steph. Paul is a realist. Looney will do what the team needs. Wiggs, hard to say, but so far, he's been a model team player.
The other way this could come up is that Kuminga just forces his way onto the first unit. Klay or Wiggs are the obvious guys to go to the bench in that case, and I don't know if Klay would take that well at all.
If JK could take the leap and play in starting lineup that might make it work out, both klay and Paul in the 2nd unit then neither have to worry about who was demoted first lol.
Some funky window stuff and couldn't keep typing. Anyway 2 athletic guys w curry and dray/looney would be quite interesting. Might need some overlap w 2nd unit otherwise it might be too slower? W klay and Chris but maybe they just switch it up and might work w saric and whoever else
Unless Draymond is physically not optimal, why would he be relegated to the bench? Draymond is the sparkplug for the core, its energy source. We need a QB for the bench mob and Paul is the natural choice. Klay will get his points but he also opens up the floor for the Kerr system to work.
Was Draymond going to be re-evaluated today? Or was that tomorrow? Not that I expect much news until he is actually on the court, but would be nice to know he is "ramping up" on schedule.
Loved seeing Moody, JK, Podz, LQ and TJD play the full OT. Kerr giving the young guns some run and a test of exhaustion/pressure. And they came through. Hitting all their OT FTs.
IMO Kerr has a bad habit of running the same closing lineup throughout overtime and just letting them struggle with being exhausted. I know it's tough to warm guys back up if they thought their night was over, but our subpar OT record over the past few years suggests a change in approach is warranted.
Javonte Green has been a solid player when healthy. Not too far off from a Bruce Brown type when he's healthy.
Here's my stab at a rotation plan based on what we've seen so far.
Starters: Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Dray and Looney.
First subs: Saric/Kuminga in for Dray or Looney for shooting. GP2 in for Klay for defense.
New lineup: Steph, GP2, Wiggins, Saric/Kuminga and Looney/Dray
This gets GP2 minutes, and having Saric or Kuminga out there instead of one of the other starting bigs should hopefully help for spacing.
Bench unit: CP3, Klay, Moody, Kuminga and Saric
That's your top 10. CoJo, TJD, and Podz all have a chance to play 60-70 games and 10-15 mpg.
The roster has some 2014 Spurs vibes where they could really spread out the rotation. No one on that Spurs team averaged over 30 mpg. Play 9-10 guys about 65-70 games and 22-30 mpg. That's your core rotation.
Then you have another 2 or 3 guys who can play 60-70 games for about 10-15 mpg. Those are the guys who fill in the rotation during a lot of rest and injury time. (a 22 year old Cory Joseph played 68 games and 14 mpg. He might do the exact same thing again at age 32!).
The reason that was able to work so well is that you had a Tony Parker, Tim Duncan led starting unit that rolled teams.
But they ALSO had a Manu and Boris Diaw led bench unit that destroyed teams. Manu at 36 was the backup PG plus Diaw as a big who can space the floor but was also a good playmaker. That's what CP3 could bring with Saric.
Would you consider bringing in Saric AND JFK for Looney AND Draymond? I’d think Saric’ (Saric’s?) ability to both space and pass would help unlock Kuminga.
Also, was leaving GP2 off your “Bench unit:” an oversight or am I missing something.
I think when Steph plays you usually want one of Draymond or Looney out there to set screens for him. Also Kuminga should get some time in lineups with Steph, Wiggins, and one of Draymond/Looney because he needs those reps if he's ever gonna break into the closing lineup.
RE GP2 - Bench unit. I think GP2 is by far at his best playing off Steph. Two years ago they were the most effective duo on the team. So I think mostly GP2 will play with Steph and 2-3 other starters. Not as much on the CP3 led bench units.
CP3 has been one of the best defenders among NBA guards year in and year out. 7x All Defensive 1st team, 2x All Defensive 2nd team. Yeah, not the past few years but he's still very good.
I'm sure they'll try it and it could be good. CP3 is an easy guy to build different lineups around. I just particularly like the looks of CP3, Klay, Moses, Kuminga and Saric.
Kuminga gets crazy spacing around him and CP3 directing the show. This can be his space each game to really be aggressive.
Likewise, Klay gets to be the 1A or 1B in this lineup and get lots of shots, but should be efficient, curated shots from CP3. So Klay gets his shots too, and should hopefully cut down on those times where he forces things.
I'll be very curious how they structure the rotation then. Because I think GP2 is just way better off playing off Steph. Both for the space Steph provides him, and because Gp2 creates turnovers that create Steph open 3's in transition. CP3 could be part of that lineup too, it just is very small.
That bench unit should be damn good. There are some defensive questions, but 4 floor spacers gives Kuminga room to drive, and CP3 room to get to his mid-range shot.
Yeah, it'll be good to have Moody and Kuminga both have to have major defensive responsibilities.
One thing about CP3 teams is they're usually very good defensive teams. One aspect is he's always been a solid smart defender. The other aspect is he grinds out halfcourt possessions, gets efficient shots and minimizes turnovers. So the other team isn't getting many transition opportunities on rebounds or turnovers.
New Warriors Plus Minus, mostly about JK. MTII said he has been hearing that JK is great in the practices, and his comment was "What he's doing is earning the right to play through his mistakes", which in my view would be great, because there are going to be mistakes but on balance I think he will help the team when they need more bounce.
They also had an interesting nugget, that the coaches have given JK the green light to crash the boards whenever he wants to, and not worry about when he is supposed to get back on D. The other guys with the similar guidance are Loon and Wiggs. Slater and MTII were guessing this would free JK up to not second guess what he should be doing when the shot goes up.
+/- is by far and away the best Dubs' pod out there. Like head and shoulders above the rest. MT/AS/TK always have amazing insight that we just don't get from other sources. The access they have as beat writers is better than casual fan pods like Light Years or Locked On, and they're not paid shills like Dubs Talk podcasters. So, they provide inside information and insight in an impartial way.
Yeah +/- is the best, then I’d say Light Years and the Oakland Warriors Podcast, and then the rest. Locked On Warriors is absolutely insufferable, between the infinite ads and the host.
JK needs probably 1-2 years of "green light for crashing the glass" before he can really internalize when to crash vs. when to not crash.
And the coaches probably learned that this approach may be helpful after talking with JK about what was happening in the fateful moment where he just stood in the corner against the Kangz...
I'm excited about what we are seeing from Podz. He has an advanced feel for the game, some nifty footwork, good passing instincts, and a degree of toughness that I don't think he was credited for pre-draft.
The dude led a D1 conference in rebounding as a 6’3” guard. That’s pretty much all the pre-draft reports needed to say on that topic, combined with the high-character notes.
He’s impressively solidly built for a 20 year old, too. In Athletic Alchemy’s scouting breakdown he praised his core strength, which I think is an underrated physical attribute on the both ends of the floor.
If his mid-range floater game is a threat against real defenses, he is going to be so good for us.
I'm really pleased with both our draft picks this season. I think I've already seen both of them put on better performances than I ever saw from Rollins or Smailagić, to name two recent picks who got full roster spots.
I wonder of MDJ is content to let it hang there until he figures out whether CP3 is more valuable than Klay goin forward…or whether JK or Moody is ready to take over the starting role next season. As unpleasant as it is to imagine, in either of those scenarios, letting Klay walk makes it easier to get under the 2nd apron.
I guess I spoke too soon about the Klay contract things not becoming a distraction, but #11 himself has made things pretty clear that he's not worried about contract negotiations at the moment.
IMO the lack of progress comes from neither the team nor Klay having any urgency to resolve things. Especially after how Draymond's situation resolved itself this summer, I'm sure Klay can just point to that, say, "eh, we'll figure something out," and get back to thinking about stuff that's more important to him.
“Klay has made it clear that he’s not about contract negotiations…”
If we take him at his word. Not calling him a liar, but to me his comments could have been interpreted as just as much him trying to convince himself he’s not worried.
> Bob Myers: "Well this why I left first of all. A lot of times people will say it's just business. It's not a just business situation. There will be a statue of this guy outside of Chase Center. It's not just simple of money and years. This is why it was hard for me. Because you have relationships with these people especially if you succeeded with them and that core has been together for 12 years."
Context: He and everyone else laughed after the comment, so we really don’t know what he meant:
A. “I literally left because of Klay’s pending contract negotiations.”
B. “If I didn’t always have to negotiate contracts with guys I’m close to, I might have stayed longer. Klay and Steve are the latest examples.”
C. “Long hours, always having to take Lacob’s calls at all hours, having to deal with Draymond shit, having to deal with agents acting like Little League parents demanding more playing time for their kid, being away from my family, wanting to do something different, having to deal with Steve and Klay’s contracts are why I left.”
D. I’m kidding/mostly kidding. It’s a tough part of the job, but it was worth it.
1. As Abaddon mentions below, letting Klay get to FA isn't letting him walk.
2. An even older CP3 will not be worth more than Klay next year.
3. JK/Moody taking Klay's role will be monumentally surprising... especially given how complementary Klay is. If I squint really hard, I can see Klay's haters actually being right that his defense is falling off so bad as to be a liability in all areas other than a pure shooter. But if he's truly getting minutes stolen by the end of the year, that's gonna lower the cost of his next contract.
Klay's going into FA, fine. He'll get some market rate offers and then come back to the Warriors at a slight discount. There's no need to wrend garments over this, imo.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, but since they were talking about it on a national broadcast and the conversation included Myers, I think listening and speculating are natural. That’s what we do here.
GSW is going to want to extend Moody and Kuminga. JK, specifically, is in line for a nice payday (25+ milliion/year) if only because that 3/4 position is very, very hard to fill. I can't imagine him getting much less than the max in his next contract. Moody is unlikely to get max money but he will likely be worth something north of $15 milion/year. That's 40-45 million in year 5 between those 2 players.
Given current payroll, that means Klay isn't getting over 20 million/year (nor should he get that at this point) unless he has a really great season. IMO, CP3 isn't going to get big money to come back next year even if he has a really great season for us; there are too many mouths to feed and even with a growing cap I don't think this team is going to blow ALL of the payroll on guys on the wrong side of 35 (with the exception of Wiggins).
I’m not a cap wiz, but I thought they either have to exercise the option or try to re-sign him at the MLE or minimum. I didn’t think we have Chris Paul’s Bird rights to go over the cap.
Yes they can but then he's UFA and the question becomes what his value will be on the open market. If he has a solid season, stays healthy in the playoffs (yeah, I know...), and there are teams whose need he can fill, we'd have to bid on him. If he doesn't have a solid season or can't stay healthy, presumably the Dubs would decline and let him walk.
IMO, CP3 is a championship or bust (and clear JP off the books). I cannot imagine any scenario where we pick up the 30 million option short of him being finals MVP.
In 25/26, the super tax apron is projected to be $209M.
Between Steph, Dray, Wiggins, and Podz, they've committed - $117M, leaving ~$90M left for the remaining 10 players they plan to roster. Assume they'll try to keep Klay, Loon, JK, MM, and TJD, filling the remaining 5 spots with draft pick & min contracts, they'll have ~$75M to spend between Klay, Loon, JK, and MM. Give Klay & JK $25M each, MM $15M, and Loon $10M, which leaves ~$15M to split between TJD and the rookie/vet min characters. Very doable, imo... but, of course, if JK and/or MM really take #theleap, stay over the second apron to keep them.
Klay can certainly still play his way to $25million on a 3/4 year deal but GSW probably wants to pay him a little less. I don't see him getting more here or elsewhere unless he had a really great season... and we win another chip.
Seems like Loon deserves a better payday but it isn't my money or my decision.
> Seems like Loon deserves a better payday but it isn't my money or my decision.
We've said this on this blog going into his last two contracts... and then he hasn't got that big payday... I expect it'll get incrementally higher. Probably he's in the mold of playing the long game of "I'm appreciated here, I could get $2-3M/year more on the open market, but then they might change my expectations outside my core skills, and I might lose my spot in the league... better to stick with the Warriors and ensure I have a longer career"
I wonder if he’d leave if Milwaukee made him an offer. I know he’s big into the town, although “being proud of your Milwaukee roots” and “wanting to live in Milwaukee instead of the Bay” might not be the same thing.
Letting Klay test the market isn't necessarily a bad thing. Dray was a free agent before we signed him to what most think was a pretty fair but team-friendly deal.
*The polarizing one: are we sure this was a good game for JK? He had 5 turnovers, and maybe 3 more almost-turnovers that became OoB plays by the Dubs. He got a couple generous whistles where he flopped. He only had 1 assist. His TS% was only .549. He picked up 5 fouls with a couple frustration ones. And yet...28 points basically on ISOs, foul trouble on the Kings, fought for some tough rebounds and a team high +11. And 76% on FTs would be huge. Turn Kuminga into a near 80% FT guy and I'm a full-on believer.
*Wiggins looked great. His FT form looked solid including 3/3 in one trip and then he clanged his last two.
*Klay 2/6 on 2P%. He might need to learn that 3Ps and bunnies are his only quality shots these days.
*The offense was a slog throughout. Granted we were missing the top 3 PGs and Dray, but Steph is the only pure scorer of the bunch. We're missing a microwave scorer. That's really where we will miss good Poole. A Gallo type would be so nice.
*Moody is so invisible and yet he consistently has 15 on good shooting. Not sure if that's positive or negative.
*Speaking of invisible, how tf did LQ have 18/4/4?
*As for the opposite of invisible, I'm sure Jerome Robinson is a great guy, but I don't need to see him in a GSW uniform again.
*Sabonis does not like us and is gonna come out with a fire against GSW jerseys. He had something to prove even tonight.
Kuminga had a good game in the sense that he was active all over the court. It wasn’t super clean, but he leveraged his strengths and the passers rewarded his run outs.
The way Robinson played can be like a virus and instill summer league habits in places you definitely don’t want them to grow. Best he moves on soon.
GP2 is the rare breed that can dominate his time on the court without even touching the ball. That being said he should have had at least 10 points on open back cuts that we ignored for well covered dribble handoffs and perimeter play. Hopefully CP3 will help maximize GP2’s cutting.
It wasn't a complete game by JK but that's not what we are looking for in preseason necessarily. He's definitely made some improvements from last year in both shooting and rebounding. I'm sure he will keep getting better throughout the season, the kid just turned 21 like a week ago.
>>> Klay 2/6 on 2P%. He might need to learn that 3Ps and bunnies are his only quality shots these days.
As I mentioned yesterday, it flys under the radar, but Klay’s 2P% was essentially the worst on the team last season (ahead of only PBJ and RR, who don’t really count).
Got my answer: Kerr says Dray is questionable for opening night
www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/draymond-green-injury-update-
The prep wasn't too awful, and my colonoscopy came back clean. No polyps!
So everything came out OK in the end.
Thanks Dubs Nation for your support, and please take care of yourselves.
"So everything came out OK in the end." I see what you did there.
Out of curiosity, are you a “new” poster or did you change your handle? :)
I've been a paying member of this site from Day 1 and am a huge fan of Mr. Apricot, Duby, and Daniel. All three are spectacularly good writers and it is a privilege to wake up to their musings, plus the extremely welcome occasional contributions of others like Joe Viray.
I have been a Warriors fan as long as you have. I cherish my memories of the Patrick O'Bryant/Todd Fuller/Choke That Coach era and $10 seats at Oracle. I have been a man of many handles here, but digging the BP2 thing so far. (I assume given your bio, you'd dig it if I used the verb "dig.") I have zero emotional attachment to the rookie, although I took a semester of Polish in college and can actually pronounce his name correctly, which is cool. If he turns out to be Something, I will proudly serve as governor of Podz Island and get anyone who wants it property there, as long as you Respect My Authority. If he doesn't, I'll drop the BP2 thing like a hot potato and ask my Yet Another Handle Handler (YAHH)(TM) software to come up with something new.
I do dig it
Though I’m more likely to use the term “hella”
“Formerly Hashemite Kingdom” would have sufficed, but I did enjoy the bio :)
here's his bio:
"Let's see how the rook does. The account formerly known as Hashemite Kingdom, before my man Jordan got run out of town."
That was the short answer :)
My dad advised me to refuse sedation for the must-see-TV of the colo-cam. I checked the box on the form, the receptionist gave me a "nice knowin-ya" look. Then on the table the Asian doc sternly related how other folks who refused had had to quit and reschedule due to the agony, yadda, yadda. I stood firm, and then the doc broke into smile and said "in my country nobody gets sedation for this". I proceeded to enjoy the show without any pain at all. It reminded me of that old flick Fantastic Voyage (well, except no Raquel Welch).
New Jason Timpf video. “Why Jonathan Kuminga is going to be huge for the Steph and Warriors” https://youtu.be/VS83Ii8pI94?si=lfS5214dnf7ocsi1 (8 minutes of required listening)
Does a good job comparing and contrasting MM & JK; Moody’s game is a better fit with what the Warriors typically do offensively, but Kuminga brings a whole ‘nother dimension. He goes on to talk about JFK has been working his ass off and his preseason numbers, and what he needs to do to keep himself on the floor.
Closing: “No matter what, it plainly visible to everyone the kid is going to be a star. It’s just a matter of when? The tools are too insane and the leaps that he’s taking season by season…you can’t deny it. It might take another 4 or 5 years, but Jonathan Kuminga has All Star in his future.”
All star, yes. 4-5 years? I hope it happens long before that. 🙂
He's a wing... feels like there's a long roster of front court all stars in the west for the next few years...
All-Stars are starters. When will JK crack the starting rotation?
It looks like all signs point to Klay re-signing. If that's the case, when could JK start? If that's the case, the earliest a starting spot would open up is 26-'27, if Wiggs or Dray decline their option. If they both pick up the option, all starting spots are filled until '27-28.
I'm not sure why Klay or Wiggs or Dray would be guaranteed a starting spot, just based on them being on the roster.
Kerr is loyal, but there are limits. It's a meritocracy. If Kuminga is better, he needs to start (otherwise he walks in three years).
I think there's about a 30% chance Kuminga pushes himself onto the starting unit by the end of the season.
Loyal... he should be loyal to Kuminga as well :)
No argument here. I think the youth movement is now.
Or Klay goes full Manu.
Bob Myers explains why he left Warriors for ESPN gig: https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/10/16/bob-myers-explains-why-he-left-warriors-for-espn-gig/amp/
I don’t know if burnout is the proper word, it’s clearer now why he left management.
Imo the fundamental tension facing the Warriors this season is that the Curry/CP3/Klay trio is likely not good enough defensively against the top teams. Curry isn't going anywhere, so this means that either CP3 or Klay will probably need to be benched depending on what the situation calls for. I'm thinking Kerr will have to play sub-optimal lineups in the regular season to keep spirits up. But it will come to a head in the playoffs. If I'm Klay I might be kinda annoyed with getting benched because if CP3 was someone like Jrue Holiday (no I'm not saying that this trade was available to the Warriors, just using a hypothetical), playing together to close games would be very seamless and it's more a function of CP3 than my own ability. Curry/CP3/Wiggins/Thompson/Green can resolve that tension against lineups where they can get away with Klay playing the 4 defensively, but there are probably matchups where it won't work.
I think the Warriors have the tools to win, but it's going to require a serious coaching job from Kerr to keep everyone happy about it. That is, unless this is a repeat of 2015-2016 where the closing lineup barely matters because the game is over by the end of the third quarter lol.
I think the tension around starting will go away, and that's really only an issue for the closing lineup. Eventually I expect CP3 to take a backseat there, but that's up to Klay to be effective and someone else to grab a spot.
Klay's the only guy I really worry about an ego issue this year.
Dray would not like going to the bench, but I think he'd do it. Plus, it's incredibly unlikely, given his symbiotic relationship with Steph. Paul is a realist. Looney will do what the team needs. Wiggs, hard to say, but so far, he's been a model team player.
The other way this could come up is that Kuminga just forces his way onto the first unit. Klay or Wiggs are the obvious guys to go to the bench in that case, and I don't know if Klay would take that well at all.
If JK could take the leap and play in starting lineup that might make it work out, both klay and Paul in the 2nd unit then neither have to worry about who was demoted first lol.
Some funky window stuff and couldn't keep typing. Anyway 2 athletic guys w curry and dray/looney would be quite interesting. Might need some overlap w 2nd unit otherwise it might be too slower? W klay and Chris but maybe they just switch it up and might work w saric and whoever else
Unless Draymond is physically not optimal, why would he be relegated to the bench? Draymond is the sparkplug for the core, its energy source. We need a QB for the bench mob and Paul is the natural choice. Klay will get his points but he also opens up the floor for the Kerr system to work.
Plus if defense is a problem, Draymond's our best chance to help solve it.
Yes
I did say Draymond going to the bench was incredibly unlikely.
It was just a thought experiment about who would and would not be OK with moving to a bench role.
Yes, I just wanted to reiterate the point.😎
Re: Klay. He wouldn't happy in part because this is a contract year. No one wants fewer minutes when they're playing for their next deal.
Was Draymond going to be re-evaluated today? Or was that tomorrow? Not that I expect much news until he is actually on the court, but would be nice to know he is "ramping up" on schedule.
I believe it was supposed to be today. Based on the reporting, he might even be ahead of schedule. Being there opening day sounds like a slam dunk.
The Warriors waived their Johnson and it’s front page news here at DNHQ.
I didn't think they'd handle their Johnson this way...
At least they didn’t cut their Johnson
Seems a popular thing to do these days.
I also noticed that Eric said none of said Johnson’s dimensions impressed him.
I thought we dodged this bullet when Gradey was drafted before #19 but noooooo
Meanwhile, it looks like Toronto is still holding on to their... ok, never mind
I like Javonte Green.
I think the NBA likes him... before his injury. Just need to see if he's still productive afterward.
Loved seeing Moody, JK, Podz, LQ and TJD play the full OT. Kerr giving the young guns some run and a test of exhaustion/pressure. And they came through. Hitting all their OT FTs.
IMO Kerr has a bad habit of running the same closing lineup throughout overtime and just letting them struggle with being exhausted. I know it's tough to warm guys back up if they thought their night was over, but our subpar OT record over the past few years suggests a change in approach is warranted.
Impressive game from Moody last night. Wiggs. LQ, PODZ and TJD all showed they belong.
Wiggs is a complete sentence.
Moody doesn't do that much but if he keeps scoring the way he has, he'll help a lot.
Wiggs showed he belonged?
Note the punctuation: "Wiggs. LQ, PODZ and TJD all showed they belong." Two separate sentences.
Wiggs is his own sentence!
Showing promise!
Javonte Green has been a solid player when healthy. Not too far off from a Bruce Brown type when he's healthy.
Here's my stab at a rotation plan based on what we've seen so far.
Starters: Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Dray and Looney.
First subs: Saric/Kuminga in for Dray or Looney for shooting. GP2 in for Klay for defense.
New lineup: Steph, GP2, Wiggins, Saric/Kuminga and Looney/Dray
This gets GP2 minutes, and having Saric or Kuminga out there instead of one of the other starting bigs should hopefully help for spacing.
Bench unit: CP3, Klay, Moody, Kuminga and Saric
That's your top 10. CoJo, TJD, and Podz all have a chance to play 60-70 games and 10-15 mpg.
The roster has some 2014 Spurs vibes where they could really spread out the rotation. No one on that Spurs team averaged over 30 mpg. Play 9-10 guys about 65-70 games and 22-30 mpg. That's your core rotation.
Then you have another 2 or 3 guys who can play 60-70 games for about 10-15 mpg. Those are the guys who fill in the rotation during a lot of rest and injury time. (a 22 year old Cory Joseph played 68 games and 14 mpg. He might do the exact same thing again at age 32!).
The reason that was able to work so well is that you had a Tony Parker, Tim Duncan led starting unit that rolled teams.
But they ALSO had a Manu and Boris Diaw led bench unit that destroyed teams. Manu at 36 was the backup PG plus Diaw as a big who can space the floor but was also a good playmaker. That's what CP3 could bring with Saric.
Would you consider bringing in Saric AND JFK for Looney AND Draymond? I’d think Saric’ (Saric’s?) ability to both space and pass would help unlock Kuminga.
Also, was leaving GP2 off your “Bench unit:” an oversight or am I missing something.
I think when Steph plays you usually want one of Draymond or Looney out there to set screens for him. Also Kuminga should get some time in lineups with Steph, Wiggins, and one of Draymond/Looney because he needs those reps if he's ever gonna break into the closing lineup.
RE GP2 - Bench unit. I think GP2 is by far at his best playing off Steph. Two years ago they were the most effective duo on the team. So I think mostly GP2 will play with Steph and 2-3 other starters. Not as much on the CP3 led bench units.
I was thinking putting GP2 in with CP3 would offset CP3’s defensive limitations while being the both a screen setter, cutter and corner 3 guy.
CP3 has been one of the best defenders among NBA guards year in and year out. 7x All Defensive 1st team, 2x All Defensive 2nd team. Yeah, not the past few years but he's still very good.
I'm sure they'll try it and it could be good. CP3 is an easy guy to build different lineups around. I just particularly like the looks of CP3, Klay, Moses, Kuminga and Saric.
Kuminga gets crazy spacing around him and CP3 directing the show. This can be his space each game to really be aggressive.
Likewise, Klay gets to be the 1A or 1B in this lineup and get lots of shots, but should be efficient, curated shots from CP3. So Klay gets his shots too, and should hopefully cut down on those times where he forces things.
I think CP3 will be the first guy off of the bench as a "show of respect". I'd guess he'd enter for either Klay or Looney.
But he wouldn’t actually coming off the bench because he’s one of the 6 starters, so it’s ok.
Hmmm....yes, that could be true.
I'll be very curious how they structure the rotation then. Because I think GP2 is just way better off playing off Steph. Both for the space Steph provides him, and because Gp2 creates turnovers that create Steph open 3's in transition. CP3 could be part of that lineup too, it just is very small.
That bench unit should be damn good. There are some defensive questions, but 4 floor spacers gives Kuminga room to drive, and CP3 room to get to his mid-range shot.
Yeah, it'll be good to have Moody and Kuminga both have to have major defensive responsibilities.
One thing about CP3 teams is they're usually very good defensive teams. One aspect is he's always been a solid smart defender. The other aspect is he grinds out halfcourt possessions, gets efficient shots and minimizes turnovers. So the other team isn't getting many transition opportunities on rebounds or turnovers.
New Warriors Plus Minus, mostly about JK. MTII said he has been hearing that JK is great in the practices, and his comment was "What he's doing is earning the right to play through his mistakes", which in my view would be great, because there are going to be mistakes but on balance I think he will help the team when they need more bounce.
They also had an interesting nugget, that the coaches have given JK the green light to crash the boards whenever he wants to, and not worry about when he is supposed to get back on D. The other guys with the similar guidance are Loon and Wiggs. Slater and MTII were guessing this would free JK up to not second guess what he should be doing when the shot goes up.
Good listen. Thx. Not normally a podcast listener and they don’t seem to have a YT, so I’d appreciate sharing these going forward 👍🏼.
+/- is by far and away the best Dubs' pod out there. Like head and shoulders above the rest. MT/AS/TK always have amazing insight that we just don't get from other sources. The access they have as beat writers is better than casual fan pods like Light Years or Locked On, and they're not paid shills like Dubs Talk podcasters. So, they provide inside information and insight in an impartial way.
Yeah +/- is the best, then I’d say Light Years and the Oakland Warriors Podcast, and then the rest. Locked On Warriors is absolutely insufferable, between the infinite ads and the host.
JK needs probably 1-2 years of "green light for crashing the glass" before he can really internalize when to crash vs. when to not crash.
And the coaches probably learned that this approach may be helpful after talking with JK about what was happening in the fateful moment where he just stood in the corner against the Kangz...
I'm excited about what we are seeing from Podz. He has an advanced feel for the game, some nifty footwork, good passing instincts, and a degree of toughness that I don't think he was credited for pre-draft.
Imo I do think we knew about all that stuff from him pre-draft.
The toughness? Don't remember reading about that on any pre-draft reports.
The dude led a D1 conference in rebounding as a 6’3” guard. That’s pretty much all the pre-draft reports needed to say on that topic, combined with the high-character notes.
He’s impressively solidly built for a 20 year old, too. In Athletic Alchemy’s scouting breakdown he praised his core strength, which I think is an underrated physical attribute on the both ends of the floor.
Are u excited about what we saw from Tim Tszyu this weekend?
I think Tszyu-Charlo would be a good one. I dunno if Tim is better than his dad though
If his mid-range floater game is a threat against real defenses, he is going to be so good for us.
I'm really pleased with both our draft picks this season. I think I've already seen both of them put on better performances than I ever saw from Rollins or Smailagić, to name two recent picks who got full roster spots.
Those are low bars...
Noooooooooo! Kendric. Nooooooooooo!
Has the the “no progress” on Klay talks clip with Woj and Myers been discussed yet? https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/klay-thompson-warriors-extension-not-close/1662996/
I wonder of MDJ is content to let it hang there until he figures out whether CP3 is more valuable than Klay goin forward…or whether JK or Moody is ready to take over the starting role next season. As unpleasant as it is to imagine, in either of those scenarios, letting Klay walk makes it easier to get under the 2nd apron.
I guess I spoke too soon about the Klay contract things not becoming a distraction, but #11 himself has made things pretty clear that he's not worried about contract negotiations at the moment.
IMO the lack of progress comes from neither the team nor Klay having any urgency to resolve things. Especially after how Draymond's situation resolved itself this summer, I'm sure Klay can just point to that, say, "eh, we'll figure something out," and get back to thinking about stuff that's more important to him.
“Klay has made it clear that he’s not about contract negotiations…”
If we take him at his word. Not calling him a liar, but to me his comments could have been interpreted as just as much him trying to convince himself he’s not worried.
Myers speaking on the situation:
> Bob Myers: "Well this why I left first of all. A lot of times people will say it's just business. It's not a just business situation. There will be a statue of this guy outside of Chase Center. It's not just simple of money and years. This is why it was hard for me. Because you have relationships with these people especially if you succeeded with them and that core has been together for 12 years."
Context: He and everyone else laughed after the comment, so we really don’t know what he meant:
A. “I literally left because of Klay’s pending contract negotiations.”
B. “If I didn’t always have to negotiate contracts with guys I’m close to, I might have stayed longer. Klay and Steve are the latest examples.”
C. “Long hours, always having to take Lacob’s calls at all hours, having to deal with Draymond shit, having to deal with agents acting like Little League parents demanding more playing time for their kid, being away from my family, wanting to do something different, having to deal with Steve and Klay’s contracts are why I left.”
D. I’m kidding/mostly kidding. It’s a tough part of the job, but it was worth it.
Barf at those two ideas. But:
1. As Abaddon mentions below, letting Klay get to FA isn't letting him walk.
2. An even older CP3 will not be worth more than Klay next year.
3. JK/Moody taking Klay's role will be monumentally surprising... especially given how complementary Klay is. If I squint really hard, I can see Klay's haters actually being right that his defense is falling off so bad as to be a liability in all areas other than a pure shooter. But if he's truly getting minutes stolen by the end of the year, that's gonna lower the cost of his next contract.
Klay's going into FA, fine. He'll get some market rate offers and then come back to the Warriors at a slight discount. There's no need to wrend garments over this, imo.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, but since they were talking about it on a national broadcast and the conversation included Myers, I think listening and speculating are natural. That’s what we do here.
GSW is going to want to extend Moody and Kuminga. JK, specifically, is in line for a nice payday (25+ milliion/year) if only because that 3/4 position is very, very hard to fill. I can't imagine him getting much less than the max in his next contract. Moody is unlikely to get max money but he will likely be worth something north of $15 milion/year. That's 40-45 million in year 5 between those 2 players.
Given current payroll, that means Klay isn't getting over 20 million/year (nor should he get that at this point) unless he has a really great season. IMO, CP3 isn't going to get big money to come back next year even if he has a really great season for us; there are too many mouths to feed and even with a growing cap I don't think this team is going to blow ALL of the payroll on guys on the wrong side of 35 (with the exception of Wiggins).
If CP3 comes back next year, he gets $30M. It's a club option, the amount is set although not guaranteed money.
I'm sure the team can decline the option, and then re-sign him, tho...
Can they?
I’m not a cap wiz, but I thought they either have to exercise the option or try to re-sign him at the MLE or minimum. I didn’t think we have Chris Paul’s Bird rights to go over the cap.
Bird rights get traded with the player. The Dubs have his bird rights.
True, they won’t have bird rights and would have to deal with cap ramifications to bring him back
Yes they can but then he's UFA and the question becomes what his value will be on the open market. If he has a solid season, stays healthy in the playoffs (yeah, I know...), and there are teams whose need he can fill, we'd have to bid on him. If he doesn't have a solid season or can't stay healthy, presumably the Dubs would decline and let him walk.
IMO, CP3 is a championship or bust (and clear JP off the books). I cannot imagine any scenario where we pick up the 30 million option short of him being finals MVP.
What about exercising the option and dealing his expiring for someone else?
In 25/26, the super tax apron is projected to be $209M.
Between Steph, Dray, Wiggins, and Podz, they've committed - $117M, leaving ~$90M left for the remaining 10 players they plan to roster. Assume they'll try to keep Klay, Loon, JK, MM, and TJD, filling the remaining 5 spots with draft pick & min contracts, they'll have ~$75M to spend between Klay, Loon, JK, and MM. Give Klay & JK $25M each, MM $15M, and Loon $10M, which leaves ~$15M to split between TJD and the rookie/vet min characters. Very doable, imo... but, of course, if JK and/or MM really take #theleap, stay over the second apron to keep them.
TJD's contract is known quantity. It has a team option of $2,406,205 for '25-26.
Cool, good to know. I haven't seen it updated on Basketball Reference, but basically falls where I'd expect it.
Klay can certainly still play his way to $25million on a 3/4 year deal but GSW probably wants to pay him a little less. I don't see him getting more here or elsewhere unless he had a really great season... and we win another chip.
Seems like Loon deserves a better payday but it isn't my money or my decision.
> Seems like Loon deserves a better payday but it isn't my money or my decision.
We've said this on this blog going into his last two contracts... and then he hasn't got that big payday... I expect it'll get incrementally higher. Probably he's in the mold of playing the long game of "I'm appreciated here, I could get $2-3M/year more on the open market, but then they might change my expectations outside my core skills, and I might lose my spot in the league... better to stick with the Warriors and ensure I have a longer career"
I wonder if he’d leave if Milwaukee made him an offer. I know he’s big into the town, although “being proud of your Milwaukee roots” and “wanting to live in Milwaukee instead of the Bay” might not be the same thing.
Maybe… but he’d be a horrible pairing with Giannis…
Letting Klay test the market isn't necessarily a bad thing. Dray was a free agent before we signed him to what most think was a pretty fair but team-friendly deal.
Not extending Klay != "letting Klay walk".
I didn’t mean to imply that’s what’s going to happen…it just prolongs the question that an extension would answer.
A couple thoughts from the game last night:
*The polarizing one: are we sure this was a good game for JK? He had 5 turnovers, and maybe 3 more almost-turnovers that became OoB plays by the Dubs. He got a couple generous whistles where he flopped. He only had 1 assist. His TS% was only .549. He picked up 5 fouls with a couple frustration ones. And yet...28 points basically on ISOs, foul trouble on the Kings, fought for some tough rebounds and a team high +11. And 76% on FTs would be huge. Turn Kuminga into a near 80% FT guy and I'm a full-on believer.
*Wiggins looked great. His FT form looked solid including 3/3 in one trip and then he clanged his last two.
*Klay 2/6 on 2P%. He might need to learn that 3Ps and bunnies are his only quality shots these days.
*The offense was a slog throughout. Granted we were missing the top 3 PGs and Dray, but Steph is the only pure scorer of the bunch. We're missing a microwave scorer. That's really where we will miss good Poole. A Gallo type would be so nice.
*Moody is so invisible and yet he consistently has 15 on good shooting. Not sure if that's positive or negative.
*Speaking of invisible, how tf did LQ have 18/4/4?
*As for the opposite of invisible, I'm sure Jerome Robinson is a great guy, but I don't need to see him in a GSW uniform again.
*Sabonis does not like us and is gonna come out with a fire against GSW jerseys. He had something to prove even tonight.
Seems like we watched the same game!
Kuminga had a good game in the sense that he was active all over the court. It wasn’t super clean, but he leveraged his strengths and the passers rewarded his run outs.
The way Robinson played can be like a virus and instill summer league habits in places you definitely don’t want them to grow. Best he moves on soon.
GP2 is the rare breed that can dominate his time on the court without even touching the ball. That being said he should have had at least 10 points on open back cuts that we ignored for well covered dribble handoffs and perimeter play. Hopefully CP3 will help maximize GP2’s cutting.
"Hopefully CP3 will help maximize GP2’s cutting." And Draymond. In '21-'22, Dray found GP2 with some great passes.
It wasn't a complete game by JK but that's not what we are looking for in preseason necessarily. He's definitely made some improvements from last year in both shooting and rebounding. I'm sure he will keep getting better throughout the season, the kid just turned 21 like a week ago.
> are we sure this was a good game for JK
Yes, in the sense that it was encouraging to see him able to grind and manufacture points when stuff wasn't easy.
Also, six rebounds is solid and he should be credited with boxing out multiple times to make easy rebounds for teammates.
He got at least three boards on the defensive end in traffic - very impressive
>>> Klay 2/6 on 2P%. He might need to learn that 3Ps and bunnies are his only quality shots these days.
As I mentioned yesterday, it flys under the radar, but Klay’s 2P% was essentially the worst on the team last season (ahead of only PBJ and RR, who don’t really count).