Warriors-Rockets playoff roundtable: 5 burning questions

LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE, H-TOWN!

The Warriors are headed into their first playoff matchup with the Rockets since 2019, but this time without Klay Thompson for the first time in the Steph Curry era. Let's dive into the crucial questions for this spicy Western Conference showdown!

1. The Rockets are claiming "this ain't that team" anymore. How much truth is there to FVV's confident dismissal of the Warriors' historical dominance?

Daniel: Fred VanVleet's blunt message that "This ain't that team" is pure psychological warfare. While he's technically correct that the roster has dramatically changed, what he's conveniently ignoring is the Warriors' recent transformation. Since the Jimmy Butler trade, they've gone an impressive 24-7 with Butler in the lineup and a ridiculous 23-5 when Butler, Curry, and Green share the floor. That's a 67-win pace, folks.

The Rockets have absolutely improved, going from a 22-60 disaster two seasons ago to a formidable 52-30 team that earned the second seed. Under Ime Udoka, they've become a physically imposing team that finished fourth in defensive efficiency. But let's get real - they're facing warriors of the postseason in Curry and Green, who have faced down far more intimidating opponents.

VanVleet would be wise to remember that the ghosts of 27 missed threes still haunt Houston basketball, whether he was there for it or not.

Patrick: Ah, the 2025 version of the infamous “they ain’t even that good” comment. How did that work out for the Houston Rockets?

There is a grain of truth though in that the iterations of the Warriors dynasty the previous versions of the Rockets repeatedly lost to had nothing like Jimmy Butler on them. That’s not to say this version is better than the KD-Warriors or even the original fresh cut, but they now have a stylistic counter and very different second option that changes things markedly.

One could go on an extended essay about what truly makes a dynasty a dynasty, focusing on that tangible quality of multiple iterations around the same core but let’s save that for June. Or Dillon Brooks’ fevered nightmares?

Ivan: My blood runs gold, but my heart is honest: this ain’t that team. This iteration hasn’t been around long enough to instill fear and awe equal to that of the peak dynasty juggernaut, and it’s easy to look at their record and their age and convince yourself that they are far from unstoppable. Frankly it would be shameful for a 2 seed to quake in their boots about a first round matchup – and yet the Dubs are favored in the betting odds. I wouldn’t want to bend the knee if I were FVV, either.

All that said: this team is so much better than their record, with playoff experience emanating from their bodies. Jimmy Butler alone has the potential to muck their gameplan and make them look foolish as they commit their legions to do bodily harm against Steph Curry. The Dubs have the two best players in the series, they have tenfold the experience, and their bball IQ is lightyears beyond the young Rockets. I hope VanVleet underestimates this team, because there are few teams in the NBA I enjoy getting rocked more than Houston.

Splash Fro: While these aren’t the Mike D’Antoni “Defense is a suggestion” Houston Rockets, the only Dubs from the 4-0 playoff bouncing team are Curry, Green and Looney. Doubt we’ll see another record-breaking brickfest in Houston and they’re much better defensively under Coach Ime Udoka. I like how there’s not a lot of tape for this iteration of the Warriors. With all the Jonathan Kuminga slander going around, it’d be poetic justice for JK to have a break out series. Like Ivan said, we’re much better than the record and 7th seed suggests.

Apricot: By the way, some of D’Antoni’s teams were defense-optional, but the 2018 HOU team was an outstanding team on both ends. They designed a great switching defense specifically to beat GSW and would have won the championship if Steph doesn’t go nuts in Game 7 and of course they don’t shoot 27 bricks.

And yes, this HOU team is clearly completely different and a worthy boss fight for GSW to challenge.

2. Is Amen Thompson really the "Curry Stopper" that Houston media is making him out to be?

Daniel: Thompson absolutely gave Curry fits in their April 6 matchup, where Steph scored just three points on 1-for-10 shooting. The young defensive demon is a guy I’m rooting for, as he and his twin brother Ausar are from Oakland. He’s been waiting his entire life to guard Steph Curry, I’m sure of it.

However, the playoffs are a different beast young brotha. Steve Kerr is a chess master at playoff adjustments, and Curry can serve as a screener to free teammates and force different defensive matchups if Thompson is glued to him. Remember when the Cavaliers thought they had "figured out" Curry after Game 3 in the 2015 Finals? We know how that ended.

Let's appreciate Thompson's defensive prowess but save the "stopper" title until he's proven it consistently against the greatest shooter in NBA history across a seven-game series.

Patrick: As Daniel said such titles are earned in the postseason, or more accurately have not been earned in the 9 postseasons Steph Curry has laid waste to. In pretty much every one of those postseasons someone has tried the goon approach to stopping Curry and the Warriors have sprung him free to devastating effect.

What’s more to pull off a “foul ‘em so many times they can’t call them all” approach requires a level of focus and discipline not usually found in first-time playoff teams.

The worst news for the Rockets is that this iteration of the Warriors employs someone who is all-time level at drawing free throws. So much so he even gets foul calls when he doesn’t appear to get fouled! How do you like them apples, Houston?

So the chances are better that Houston’s goons foul out while Jimmy Butler hits 27 free throws than they employ the one player in league history who can stop Steph Curry.

Plus Looney (and sneakily Post) are perfectly capable of throwing a few hard screens their way to send a message. If you want to drag this into the mud, as ever with the Warriors, don’t get fooled by the flashy shooting. This is a top notch defensive squad who have some real toughness in their underbelly. They just also happen to be able to bury your asses in an avalanche of Steph Curry threes.

Ivan: You can’t stop Steph with one guy. That’s just not how the Warriors’ offense works. Hold him off ball all you want, but you will have to make it through a gauntlet of screens to stay with him, and eventually you’re gonna be late or have to switch. I’m not at all looking forward to the assault and battery that Steph will endure against Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Tari Eason, but it’s nothing Curry and Steve Kerr and Draymond Green haven’t all seen before. And Steph is a literal all-time great – you don’t get to that point if designated “stoppers” actually shut you down. No – Steph and Kerr will have answers.

Splash Fro: With the physical intensity ramping up for the playoffs, I fear the officials will swallow their whistles and let SC30 continue to be fouled, grabbed, clubbed and prison-shanked off the ball. I wish the NBA would develop conventions to officiate this like they did with hand checking. If straight arming or extending both hands constitutes a foul, then how about both hands around the waist? Just like hand-checking, make defenders use their feet. It’s not a legal guarding position if you’re reaching out beyond your entitled vertical space to hold Steph on the cut. I think Kerr & Company will dial up a way to counter.

Apricot: Amen is an outstanding defender. But it’s a 5-on-5 game and screens and offball movement mean that the whole HOU team will have to cooperate to, well, beat the crap out of Steph.

3. Has Butler's arrival transformed this into a legitimate title contender?

Daniel: "The Jimmy Butler trade saved their season, and maybe the twilight of the Steph-Draymond-Steve Kerr era." Full stop.

Before Butler, the Warriors were below .500 and struggling. Since his arrival, they've posted the third-best net rating in the league, outscoring opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions. Butler has been transformational, giving Kerr an offensive alternative to the Steph-centric motion offense while creating a high free-throw, low-turnover, chaos-creating defensive identity.

Most importantly, he's unlocked Curry, who's averaging 27.9 points and 5.7 assists per game on .644 true shooting since the trade. That's production very few players have ever sustained, especially at age 37.

This isn't just a sentimental playoff run - it's a legitimate title window that opened unexpectedly. With Curry, Green, and Butler firing on all cylinders, why not us?

Patrick: It has definitely reopened the window. Everything Daniel has said, plus they’ve had the third best record since the trade with only OKC and Boston posting better records.

The Warriors defense pre-trade wasn’t bad at 10th in defensive efficiency. But that trade has completely unlocked their wrecking style giving them two of the best guys ever to freelance in tandem and blow up opponents sets. And as we’ve seen in every Warriors championship iteration, defense wins championships.

But the biggest difference has been offensively, with Butler giving them a new dimension, and boosting everyone from Steph to Moody, Podz and Post.

It certainly feels like they’ve got a real shot at reaching the Western Conference Finals though to get there they’ll have to defeat two basketball supercomputers in LeBron and Luka, and one basketball supergrifter in Austin Reaves. It doesn’t feel impossible given the Lakers still feel incomplete with an interior defense reminiscent of the 2022 Dallas Mavericks whose only parade was a parade to the rim. Funny they both employed Luka eh? And while the trade was a clear cut case for a federal investigation, it’s AD who really gave the Warriors fits in that 2023 series. Perhaps there’s a measure of retribution for the way their title defense ended on the cards.

Once in the Final Four, if they clear that hurdle, it would come down to matchups and health as ever. But if the Warriors are firing on all cylinders with three proven playoff Warriors and a bunch of hard-nosed role players making the right play every damn time (the Jimmy effect) why not us indeed?

The elephant in the room is the one player Jimmy’s arrival hasn’t boosted - Jonathan Kuminga. I kind of feel they will need a locked in version to provide some perimeter on-ball defense and put pressure on the rim, even if it’s only 20-25 minutes a game. You can’t play Jimmy the full 48 every game. Does that version of Kuminga exist? We have definitely seen it in glimpses which makes this so difficult. But does Kuminga even want that version to exist at this point?

Whatever his long-term future may be the quickest way to a big contract is to contribute to a championship. Just ask Jordan Poole. Then you can take the bag and play a bigger role somewhere else if that’s what you want to do. Alternatively if you aren’t ready when your number is called, or the defensive effort and hustle isn’t there, that next pay check shrinks by the minute.

But back to the Warriors chances overall. I feel like they gave themselves a punchers shot with this trade. Let’s see how far they get. But it might be they are still one Kuminga-sized off-season trade (Cam Johnson anyone?) away from true contention.

Ivan: I think this Warriors team is better than their 2022 Championship squad. And nobody expected them to gain that steam all the way to the ring ceremony.

The top of the league is also stronger than in 2022, with some established contenders and some statistically historical entrants in those top seeds. There’s no obvious clear path, and the Dubs will need to catch a big wave to give themselves a chance. There’s also the factor of chance itself: there’s enough competition that whoever wins it all is going to need some luck catching their opponents at the right time with the right swing.

The Dubs can absolutely be one of those teams.

Apricot: Yes, but a fragile one. Another injury to Steph or Jimmy or possibly Draymond wouldend our serious hopes. No team outside of OKC/BOS/CLE can survive a serious injury, but even a nagging one to the Big 3 could derail a machine running at its limits.

4. How should the Warriors handle Houston's physical defense and size advantage?

Daniel: This matchup is fundamentally about contrasting styles: the Warriors want to downsize and put skill on the floor, spreading defenses with ball and body movement, while Houston loves smothering opponents with size and physicality.

The Warriors need to win the possession battle. The Rockets led the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage by a mile and generate tons of second-chance points (18.1 per game, second-most in the league). Since acquiring Butler, the Warriors have dramatically improved in this area, generating 5.5 more shooting opportunities per game than their opponents - identical to Houston's season-long mark.

Green must keep Sengun off the glass without getting into foul trouble, while our wings need to gang-rebound to finish possessions. This might actually be a series where Kuminga's athleticism could be critical, as he had the best net rating of any rotation Warrior against Houston this season.

Play fast, move the ball (Houston ranks dead last in ball movement), and make them chase our shooters until they're exhausted.

Patrick: Everything Daniel says but I also feel like the question should be can the Rockets score enough themselves to make this a series? They’re not a great shooting team and don’t have a real top-notch offensive threat. Moreover they are going against one of the top defenses in the league, with two absolute terrors with a track record of ramping up the intensity in the playoffs and all the little tricks over a decade of high stakes basketball teaches you.

Given the Rockets noted ball movement struggles and the Warriors elite proclivity to force turnovers those Houston kids could have a problem. As long as the Warriors can battle for those boards (by gawd is that Kevon Looney’s music ??) they should be fine. And if this descends into that mud fight I’ll take the team with Steph and Jimmy on it 100 times out of 100.

Ivan: This is probably going to be an ugly series. Big, physical defense against wisened, honed defense. Either way, scoring might come at a premium, and it’ll come down to one word: possessions.

And I think that’s how you beat them: don’t turn the ball over, scheme them into bad shots, fight like hell to secure the boards, keep it close till the last five minutes, and let Steph and Jimmy bring it home. The Dubs should have a marked advantage in crunch time. But they can’t let Houston get a downhill advantage, and that means winning or breaking even on the possessions battle.

Splash Fro: The early offense needs to pay off. Hit ‘em early before the defense gets set. But also stop settling for so many damn 3s or knock outs in the first half. The 2015-2019 Warriors could beat you if you went big or small. This squad needs to make Houston pay for going big. Run those bigs so they’re not playable. Oh and someone needs to change the date on Buddy Hield’s phone so he thinks it’s November.

Apricot: Minimize turnovers so HOU can’t run and reset their defense. For all of HOU’s deserved defensive rep, GSW has had the #1 defense with Jimmy. Without turnovers, HOU’s offense will have trouble getting separation from GSW.. On offense, wear them down with waves of Steph’s improvisational airbending, Kerr’s motion offense waterbending and Jimmy’s isolation earthbending.

5. Final prediction: Who takes this series and why?

Daniel: Despite the Rockets objectively ranking higher than the Warriors on both ends of the floor, the Warriors' championship DNA and road prowess will prevail. This will be a physically demanding, ugly series where patience and experience ultimately triumph over youthful energy.

Dan Devine at Yahoo Sports says "Warriors in six," and I think that's exactly right. The Rockets will make this a street fight with their physicality, but in the end, Golden State's offensive firepower and championship experience will be the difference.

The real question isn't whether the Warriors will win - it's whether they'll have enough left in the tank for the conference semifinals. But then again, when has betting against Steph Curry in the playoffs ever been the smart move?

Patrick: Warriors in 5. The games will be physical, some will be close, but the Warriors have the experience edge over a youthful team and I just can’t see how the Rockets manufacture enough points themselves to stand a real chance at a long series.

Get ready for night-night children!

Ivan: Warriors in 6. Each team takes an away game, but by game 5, they’ll have figured out the recipe. Houston’s athleticism and size and willingness to foul the shit out of anything that moves is going to make this look like a bloodbath, but the Rockets are young and inexperienced and ultimately won’t be able to execute the counters needed against a team with some of the smartest, wiliest players in the league. Frustration will eventually get the best of them.

Splash Fro: Steph Curry is better on the road. Three of the four championships were clinched on the road. Unanimous is so generous he seems to save these big moments for opponents’ arenas.. MSG 54. 2974 happened there too. Mike Breen’s double bang for Curry’s shot heard around the world was in OKC. And then there’s France. Heard somewhere he was a league best ppg on the road this season? I think the Warriors clinch in Houston so that’s games 5 or 7.