Warriors pull off victory in New Orleans, but mini-slump continues

Are the Dubs looking playoff ready to you?

One of the first pieces I wrote this season was in response to the short-lived elevation of Jonathan Kuminga to the starting lineup at Draymond Green’s expense. At the time, I thought it was a major storyline – even if that specific starting lineup combo didn’t last, it meant something that team leadership was making Kuminga the priority, treating him like a foundational player.

Well, like so many other times where it looked like it was Kuminga’s time, a coronation for the next young star – it didn’t last long. A quick injury to Andrew Wiggins made the dramatic lineup change moot and Draymond Green would come off the bench for exactly two games. So much for making a big deal out of that one. In retrospect… the Warriors were desperate, they were in the middle of an extended slump, and they were looking for anything that could shake things up. Kuminga was playing well, but the drama was the point.

And even coming off the bench as a super-sub, Kuminga was playing some of the best basketball of his career, so for a brief moment it seemed like everyone was happy. It’s nice to start, but playing 30 minutes per game as the offensive engine of the bench unit and slipping into closing lineups depending on matchups is satisfying to a young player too. The Warriors weren’t necessarily playing great during that moment of compromise, but I do remember being a little more hopeful about the state of the team and the season. But even that would be shortlived – nine games later, Kuminga suffered a brutal ankle sprain and the whole thing got scuffed again.

Like so much of Kuminga’s career, the season has been a series of stops and starts, fifteen pump fakes at a resolution. Everytime it looks like it’s settled, Kuminga plays his way back into plans, plays his way back out of them, or gets hurt at the perfect moment to make a lasting decision impossible.

Now, instead of Kuminga being one of the key structural elements of the team, as he was for the first half of the season, he’s stuck trying to awkwardly reintegrate himself into a humming engine. While he’s been out, the Warriors have found a rotation and a core group of players that have been blowing teams away. The role he played in that December to January stretch – star of the bench unit, wing on the closing lineups – has been taken by a legitimate All-Star. Jonathan Kuminga has missed three months and is now expected to fit into an entirely different team that needs something entirely different out of him. He’s got nine games to figure out how to do it.

I think it’s important to realize how tough an ask this is! Reintegrating into a successful offense is tough, and the team is entirely different now. Back in December, the Warriors needed the offense to go through Kuminga. There were no other consistent creators on the roster who could do it when Steph couldn’t. Even if he was inefficient and frustrating, he was the only other player who could be trusted to be on-ball and get a bucket at a reasonable rate.

Now, that job’s taken, and that’s great for the team, but it also means Kuminga’s job is narrowed and intensified – he needs to be a finisher, a rebounder, and a lockdown defender, and he needs to be good at it. Right now. Nine games.

I’m harping so much on Kuminga here because, when we look back on the end of this season, March through April, I think he is clearly the most important question and storyline on this team. There are other questions: what are the role players with no playoff experience, like Podz and Post, going to give you? Is Jimmy going to get his jump shot back? When can GP2 play again? But, as always, the ideal version of Kuminga is the real ceiling raiser. If this team is going to win a championship, I can only imagine it comes through his improvement.

Steph was able to return to play after missing two games with a tailbone contusion (ouch), but the Warriors still came out of the gate extremely slow, again. A depleted and tanking Pelicans team shot out to an early twelve point lead against the starting lineup, led by strong play from Bruce Brown (who looked awesome all game: a contending team could really use him, I have no idea why he didn’t get bought out of his contract) and rookie Yves Missi. It took a Moses Moody dunk-of-the-year candidate over Olynk and Missi to shake the Warriors out of their funk and get them playing with any intensity or urgency

I am willing to excuse some of that slow start due to the collective slump that’s happening to the Warriors over the past few games. Everyone’s been shooting terribly these days, and for most of it I think you can just chalk it up to random variance (and Curry being out making everything harder). Moody went 1-3 on three point attempts, putting him at 1-12 over his last thirteen attempts going back several games. Podz went 1-7. Jimmy went 1-6. Gui went 0-3. Kuminga went 0-2. Even Steph went 5-16, but it felt better in the moment because he missed his last five once the lead was comfortable. The Warriors haven’t been shooting well this whole roadtrip, but you assume that’s going to even out – Podz, Gui, and Moody especially were missing good, open shots.

The two players with slumping jumpshots I am starting to side eye are Jimmy Butler, and, of course, Kuminga. Kuminga came into the season with a markedly improved three point shot, one of the aspects of his game he'd clearly been emphasizing over the summer. It never looked elite, but he was able to ratchet up both the attempts and the efficiency. During the December/January stretch of improved play and a consistent role, he was shooting 42%. Since his return, he’s shot 3-14. A small sample, but something to keep an eye on.

Jimmy Butler has shot 21% on threes since he joined the Warriors, and I haven’t seen many midrange jumpers from him either. He’s always been a low volume three-point shooter in the regular season, and it seems like he’s just now starting to emphasize the jumpshot so he can be in rhythm for the playoffs (six 3PAs is a high for him as a Warrior). So maybe nothing to worry about. But it is very difficult to spin a 21% 3P% in a positive way!

After pushing back to tie the game early in the second quarter, the game was stagnant until the opening minutes of the fourth quarter. The Pelicans had been able to keep pace offensively with the Warriors until that point, but the Warriors defense tightened up drastically just as Quinten Post and Buddy Hield started making some shots.

I thought this was a really excellent Post game. He kept shooting past an early cold stretch to come back and deliver some very timely offense. He put up nine threes in 17 minutes! Post’s statlines are always insane. He also impressed me with some very competent defense and rebounding – given his shooting, that can be almost gravy, but a huge sign in favor of him being playable in meaningful games.

Kuminga closed the first half, but only guest star in the second half, ending with 23 minutes. He banged knees with Yves Missi in the third quarter, a collision that looked incredibly painful for both parties – Missi would leave the game briefly, Kuminga stayed in to shoot free throws, visibly limping and grimacing. So maybe that had something to do with the low minute count: they’re being delicate with the ankle still, didn’t want him to push through the pain quite yet. I get that!

But like so many of Kuminga’s games, he looked amazing one moment and frustrating the next. He did some of the role player stuff that the Warriors are asking of him, but also got lost on defense. He snatched some strong rebounds, but would also get tunnel vision coming back down.

He’d fly in for a hard rebound and find Steph for a fast break:

And then also get too enthusiastic on defense, reach, fall over, and foul needlessly:

The box score looks good – 16 points, 8 rebounds, only one turnover – but he was also the only Warriors player with a negative plus/minus. He’s being very active, and you can really see the effort coming through even if some of the things that he puts effort towards are misconceived. It’s a work in progress. We’ll see how it goes.

Stray Observations:

• Post continues to blow me away with his game-by-game improvement, and I think they need to start looking for ways to get his minutes up with the offense looking a little anemic at times. At this point I am fully comfortable with him as a slightly-below-average defender, which is all he needs to be when he’s… the best three-point shooting center in basketball, aside from Jokic, apparently? With Podz and Moody slumping, I think there’s some minutes to collect.

• Kuminga’s low minute count could also be chalked up to Gui Santos having a really excellent game. Even with the full squad, there’s going to be a spot for him – his energy and intensity always changes the complexion of the game when he comes in. He ended with a game-high +15.

• Podz was very clearly sunburnt after several days off in Miami. The training staff needs to educate him about skin cancer safety, melanomas are no joke.