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Warriors more than survive Killer Eight Game Stretch. Can GSW avoid the Play-In?
Get ready for the mother of all season-level random endings
FYI


GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors (38-36) at Philadelphia 76ers (49-23)
WHEN: Fri Mar 24 2023 // 7:00pm (ish) PST
WATCH: NBCSBA, NBA TV
How did the Warriors do in the Killer Eight?
In “Things will get worse before they get better: The Killer Eight”. I wrote:
This is a rough stretch, even if Steph is back at a high level. 5 game road trip sandwiched by three home games against serious contenders. They should beat ATL and HOU. The other teams are better, but if they can steal just one game, that makes them 3-5 and 37-38 by the end of this. That should be right in the middle of the scrum for the play-in.
The current tally is:
Target: (3-5)
Sat, Mar 11 vsMilwaukee - win
Mon, Mar 13 vsPhoenix - win
Wed, Mar 15 at LA Clips - loss
Fri, Mar 17 at Atlanta - loss
Sat, Mar 18 at Memphis - loss
Mon, Mar 20 at Houston- win
Wed, Mar 22 at Dallas - win
Fri, Mar 24 vsPhiladelphia
Every loss felt like a boneheaded season ender, and every win felt like a corner-turning renaissance. But in the end, the Warriors are 4-3 over this killer stretch, so they are guaranteed to overperform the target.
The amazing logjam standings
GSW is right now the #6 seed at 38-36. Then follows an unbelievable SIX teams with 37 losses. So losing two games could in theory drop GSW from #6 all the way to #12. (By the way, winning 2 games could in theory vault GSW to the #4 seed.) I’ve never seen such a close playoff race. We’re headed for the biggest season-level random ending in history.
How many wins will avoid the Play-In?
Obviously, very hard to tell. A too simple approach is to say assume the collective group will play about .500, so since the #6 seed is currently 2 games above .500, the eventual #6 seed probably will be similarly 2 games over, at 42-40.
Amusingly enough, if you take a complex approach that involves simulating the exact schedule like at Basketball-Reference, you get… the #6 seed will likely have a record of 42-40. (Teams will likely need a 41-41 record to make the Play-In!!)
The home stretch
With 8 games to go, GSW will likely need to go 4-4 to make the target wins to get the #6 seed.
Target: (4-4)
Fri, Mar 24 vsPhiladelphia - likely loss, PHI possibly resting players
Sun, Mar 26 vsMinnesota - ???
Tue, Mar 28 vsNew Orleans - ???
Fri, Mar 31 vsSan Antonio - likely win
Sun, Apr 2 at Denver - likely loss
Tue, Apr 4 vsOklahoma City - ??? OKC possibly tanking at this point
Fri, Apr 7 at Sacramento - ??? SAC possibly resting players
Sun, Apr 9 at Portland - likely win, POR probably tanking
I count two likely wins and a 5 toss-up games. GSW will have a very good shot to make 4 wins and even go beyond.
The computer says…
In case you’re wondering what Bball-Ref says, the GSW odds of season outcomes are:
#3 seed 0.1%
#4 9.8
#5 18.7
#6 22.0 (thus 50.6% collective odds of staying out of the Play-In)
#7 15.5
#8 12.6
#9 8.6
#10 7.0
Out of Play-in and Playoffs 5.7%
Warriors more than survive Killer Eight Game Stretch. Can GSW avoid the Play-In?
Free throw merchants booted out of Chase Center. Postgame party thread is ready: https://dubnationhq.com/p/postgame-party-thread-golden-state
It's SO WEIRD that the Lakers are playing better since they traded Westbrook. Who (besides the entire internet) could have seen that coming?