Warriors more than survive Killer Eight Game Stretch. Can GSW avoid the Play-In?

Get ready for the mother of all season-level random endings

FYI

Dalton Johnson @DaltonJ_Johnson

Gary Payton II is expected to practice Saturday and could return to the Warriors on Sunday against the Timberwolves. After missing 19 games, plus Friday night's game vs. the 76ers, GP2 is about to be back

nbcsports.comGP2 to practice Saturday, could play Sunday vs. WolvesThe Warriors announced Gary Payton II has intensified his on-court workouts over the past week, and is expected to practice with the team on Saturday.

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GAME DETAILS

• WHO: Golden State Warriors (38-36) at Philadelphia 76ers (49-23)

• WHEN: Fri Mar 24 2023 // 7:00pm (ish) PST

• WATCH: NBCSBA, NBA TV

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How did the Warriors do in the Killer Eight?

In “Things will get worse before they get better: The Killer Eight”. I wrote:

This is a rough stretch, even if Steph is back at a high level. 5 game road trip sandwiched by three home games against serious contenders. They should beat ATL and HOU. The other teams are better, but if they can steal just one game, that makes them 3-5 and 37-38 by the end of this. That should be right in the middle of the scrum for the play-in.

The current tally is:

Target: (3-5)

• Sat, Mar 11 vsMilwaukee - win

• Mon, Mar 13 vsPhoenix - win

• Wed, Mar 15 at LA Clips - loss

• Fri, Mar 17 at Atlanta - loss

• Sat, Mar 18 at Memphis - loss

• Mon, Mar 20 at Houston- win

• Wed, Mar 22 at Dallas - win

• Fri, Mar 24 vsPhiladelphia

Every loss felt like a boneheaded season ender, and every win felt like a corner-turning renaissance. But in the end, the Warriors are 4-3 over this killer stretch, so they are guaranteed to overperform the target.

The amazing logjam standings

GSW is right now the #6 seed at 38-36. Then follows an unbelievable SIX teams with 37 losses. So losing two games could in theory drop GSW from #6 all the way to #12. (By the way, winning 2 games could in theory vault GSW to the #4 seed.) I’ve never seen such a close playoff race. We’re headed for the biggest season-level random ending in history.

How many wins will avoid the Play-In?

Obviously, very hard to tell. A too simple approach is to say assume the collective group will play about .500, so since the #6 seed is currently 2 games above .500, the eventual #6 seed probably will be similarly 2 games over, at 42-40.

Amusingly enough, if you take a complex approach that involves simulating the exact schedule like at Basketball-Reference, you get… the #6 seed will likely have a record of 42-40. (Teams will likely need a 41-41 record to make the Play-In!!)

The home stretch

With 8 games to go, GSW will likely need to go 4-4 to make the target wins to get the #6 seed.

Target: (4-4)

• Fri, Mar 24 vsPhiladelphia - likely loss, PHI possibly resting players

• Sun, Mar 26 vsMinnesota - ???

• Tue, Mar 28 vsNew Orleans - ???

• Fri, Mar 31 vsSan Antonio - likely win

• Sun, Apr 2 at Denver - likely loss

• Tue, Apr 4 vsOklahoma City - ??? OKC possibly tanking at this point

• Fri, Apr 7 at Sacramento - ??? SAC possibly resting players

• Sun, Apr 9 at Portland - likely win, POR probably tanking

I count two likely wins and a 5 toss-up games. GSW will have a very good shot to make 4 wins and even go beyond.

The computer says…

In case you’re wondering what Bball-Ref says, the GSW odds of season outcomes are:

• #3 seed 0.1%

• #4 9.8

• #5 18.7

• #6 22.0 (thus 50.6% collective odds of staying out of the Play-In)

• #7 15.5

• #8 12.6

• #9 8.6

• #10 7.0

• Out of Play-in and Playoffs 5.7%