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So I finally got around to reading the Hollinger prediction article. Someone already posted his Predictions section a couple posts back, so I won't comment on that. He does make some interesting points elsewhere. Overall, he relies heavily on projections, and I'm skeptical of them.

I think that most projections are almost always focused on expected value. However, the dubs have quite a few players returning from injury, and projections typically have a hard time with injury recovery.

Nonetheless, here are some of the key VORP/100 predictions for you guys who understand VORP a bit better than me to chew on:

Steph: 4.74

Klay: 1.91

Wiggins 1.97

OPJ: 1.20

Green: 2.87

Poole: 0.68

D-Lee: 1.72(!!)

Iggy: 0.22

Wiseman: -1.35

Bjelly: 1.21

JTA: 0.85

Looney: -0.42

Klay/OPJ/Poole/Wiseman seem low to me. Three injury recovery candidates and one breakout season candidate. Bjelly may also see more of an uptick based on better system fit.

The other main point he makes is about the Dubs' cap situation:

Even if they cull the roster to 14 players and not make any further additions, the Warriors are looking at cutting a $180 million check to the league after the season. Let me try to put this staggering sum in some context: This isn’t their payroll; this is additional money they owe. But it happens to be more than the payroll of every other team in the league.

Finally, I had to share his paragraph on Smiley:

Finally, let us pour one out for Smailagic, a player the Warriors seemed to covet more for the subterfuge involved in obtaining him than any evidence of ability. After hiding him on their G League team for a year, surrendering cash and two seconds to get a pick and draft him (two spots ahead of Paschall!) and keeping him on the roster for two years, he was mercifully let go.

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All your questions, answered by someone who doesn't know much:

Q. Who should be the 15th guy? A. GP II. He plays better with a hernia than Galloway Cillozza or Bradley. I gave Mulder consideration given his proven ability to play in the system but he's redundant. GPII is a ball-hawking guard, which we don't have. Unless you count Bradley who *says* he's still a ball-hawking guard but ... no longer really seems to be. And Jordan Bell isn't .. how to say this? ... a very good basketball player. Hasn't improved his game at all. It's nice that he's tall but he's not even that tall. No nostalgia contract for you, sir, Iguodala already got that one.

Q. Can Jordan Poole play defense well enough to keep him and Steph on the floor at the same time? A. Kerr says he's worried about exactly that. Kerr isn't stupid.

Q. How many games will Otto survive to play this year? A. Vegas over-under is probably 13 with this guy. Which sucks because he's looking damn good.

Q. Who is slower on defense, Nemanja Bjelica or me? A. It's close, and I'm 56.

Q. When is Klay coming back? A. He just dunked in practice and a nation cringed.

Q. Are Kuminga, Moody and Wiseman going to get much playing time? A. Wiseman is lucky that Looney is the only guy ahead of him because he's just about as raw as the rookies. All three young guys will be familiar faces at the Hindquarter here in Santa Cruz (It's between their hotel and the arena and sells hefty portions)

Q. How many games will GSW win this year? Are they playoff bound? Could they actually contend for a championship? A. That's three questions.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by Daniel Hardee

That Jordan Poole rookie vid is striking; he was really slight back then. I'm swept up in all of the optimism, but I can't help but hope for great things for this guy. He's doing more than keeping Klay's seat warm...

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

Bradley trying to suck up lol

https://twitter.com/KerithBurke/status/1446204145539563532?s=20

Avery Bradley said "no offense" to the other NBA teams he's been with, but Golden State is "one of the best organizations in the NBA from top to bottom."

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author

KLAY THOMPSON DUNK ALERT!!

https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/status/1446202237395488768

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author

bummer

> @anthonyVslater

Jonathan Kuminga: Strained patella tendon in his right knee. He will be reevaluated in a week. Tough break for the Warriors rookie in his first preseason.

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https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/status/1446199740354347011?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Strained Patella Tendon for JFK. Not a good start to his career.

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For the 15th spot: GP2. If not him, then keeping it open in case we need a big body as insurance. I don't see an immediate need to fill the 15th spot just to fill it. If there's somebody that an obvious fit and need then sure, let's get him... but I don't imagine the quality of players available now and halfway through the season are going to change much (aside from possibly better players the buyout market).

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> Gary Payton II is on the court getting some full speed 3-on-3 work post practice. He’s been unavailable early in preseason, but looks near a return as he tries to get into the 15th roster spot competition.

https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/status/1446195396796051460

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I'm actually concerned that this team seems to not care about wanting another big. Does Kerr really think he can run small ball for an entire season and not kill the team? Wish we had someone like Javale, but maybe Wiseman will fill that void.

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I'm not as concerned about the defense as some people seem to be. Firstly, it's preseason, and no one plays D very hard in preseason due to a healthy fear of a pointless injury. Second, the rotation minutes for the first couple of games are in no way indicative of the minutes distribution in the regular season because... preseason is preseason. Third, older guys like Andre and Draymond will likely take a few weeks to round into full-season shape, and I don't think most were expecting those guys to come out of the gates being defensive dynamos on day 1. Finally, the new guys (although they already fit like a glove on offense) need to get more used to the defensive rotations. I expect Bjelica in particular to be noticeably better on that front as the regular season starts to take shape; he's not going to be a defensive destroyer but he's a smart player who had positive (though nothing special) defensive numbers at both Min and Sac. I don't think the Warriors will have a top-5 defense again but a top-10 defense is well within this team's realistic achievable goals.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

Ok, watching that first Poole lefty highlight, I’m still not sure whether he lost control of the ball for a moment or if it’s one of the coolest ball fakes ever. Watching live, I thought he almost lost, but now 🤷🏼‍♂️

Thoughts?

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author

omg

> @Tom_Winter

·

50m

The indictment says that former NBA player Terrence Williams “orchestrated” a plan to submit false claims to the NBA’s Health and Welfare Benefit Plan. Williams allegedly offered to supply false invoices from a group of former players in exchange for kickback payments to Williams

> 18 former NBA players arrested by federal authorities in alleged health care scam

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/18-former-nba-players-arrested-federal-authorities-alleged-health-care-n1281022

> The defendants include Terrence Williams, Alan Anderson, Anthony Allen, Desiree Allen, Shannon Brown, William Bynum, Ronald Glen "Big Baby" Davis, Christopher Douglas-Roberts, Melvin Ely, Jamario Moon, Darius Miles, Milton Palacio, Ruben Patterson, Eddie Robinson, Gregory Smith, Sebastian Telfair, Charles Watson Jr., Antoine Wright, and Anthony Wroten.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by Duby Dub Dubs

I'm on team "I think we need a legit big over a guard at this point and no it's not Jordan Bell". Let's just keep the spot open in case one appears in the wild.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by Daniel Hardee

Great write up. Love the optimism, and I’m an optimist. On the flip side, we had no answer for Jokic. Sure we can say our guys were playing preseason basketball, but so was he. And boy I hope Kuminga’s knee checks out ok. RE 15th roster spot - I think it goes to Avery Bradley on the basis of his veteran leadership, not his on ball defense. Not saying it’s right, or not right, just my prediction.

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TheRinger's NBA pre-season power rankings have released their third installment, from which we can deduce the Warriors are in their top eight(?) (article text would suggest top five but based on the team listings I think it's eight).

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