"The Warriors are ready to offer a “whole lot” for Giannis Antetokounmpo and consider Steph Curry the only untouchable player on the roster, per @MontePooleNBCS"
While I do think the Warriors are a leader, maybe THE leader, to get Giannis if they trade him before the deadline, I am having a hard time seeing why they would do that when their options could be so much more dynamic come the offseason. As such, I am mostly resigned at this point to not getting him, which is a comfortable place to be as a seasoned Giants fan and also as someone who doesn't necessarily want to deal with the dark side of where this could all go if we give up everything and then Giannis gets badly injured.
> and also as someone who doesn't necessarily want to deal with the dark side of where this could all go if we give up everything and then Giannis gets badly injured.
I definitely understand this concern, only thing I'd say is that I don't think the Warriors have any good options, everything has a substantial dark side at this point including standing pat.
Two potential reasons to trade Giannis before the deadline:
1) He demands this because he and Curry only have so many seasons to try to win another Championship together and he wants to be supermaxxed ASAP, and/or
2) the Bucks think that their trade options will diminish come the summer because at that point Giannis will zero in on whichever team or teams he prefers and declare his intention not sign with any other team willing to give up the store for him.
If neither of these two reasons exist, I agree that the Bucks will probably wait.
There are 3 major reasons why the Bucks might prefer trading him now: 1) Giannis might prefer having a shot this year and they might want to oblige him 2) if there's no guarantee of extension, 1.5 years of Giannis is a lot more valuable than 1. Giannis can use that threat to choose where to go. And 3) if there's any risk of reinjury with this calf strain, you pass that risk now before something drastic happens.
That said, I share skepticism that the Warriors can get this done.
I’ve been trying to tell you all but you all are letting a hypothetical trade that will never happen get your hopes up when the real answered prayer will be having his name called up in this upcoming draft. Won’t cost us much other than not making any major moves this trade deadline. #CAREENFORKARIM!
Monster game from projected 2026 lottery pick Karim Lopez: new career-high 32 points (11/13 FG, 1/2 3PT, 9/12 FT) + 8 rebounds in the NZ Breakers’ win over MEL.
The 18-year-old had 19 points in the 4th Q, scoring at all three levels against one of the best defences in the NBL.
@OlgunUluc
3h
Lopez took over in the 4th Q for an extremely undermanned New Zealand Breakers side to keep their play-in hopes well and truly alive. Unbelievably impressive stuff, and with Golden State Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy sitting courtside.
You're probably right that our Ws aren't getting Giannis (85-90% per Vegas?) but as long as you're telling everyone it's 100%, can I assume you've also called your bookie and bet the house and farm accordingly? 😉
Idk I think this team standing pat at the deadline is still probably the 8 seed in the west. I don’t expect our pick to get that high unless steph gets hurt for the rest of the season too, or they ship out Melton and Horford.
Yeah I'm still very skeptical about this Giannis trade. I don't think we've ever really heard that Giannis has interest in playing in the Bay Area, the interest has always felt one-sided on Lacob's part.
If this scenario was happening 5-10 years ago I'm guessing Giannis would be convinced, but I expect the draw of playing with Curry has diminished greatly given his age. Last deadline we saw that the Warriors were the second choice for Butler (and that KD didn't want to come although there was baggage there that was probably Curry-independent).
If I'm Giannis I'd want to go to a team with Edwards or Wembanyama, not a team led by a 38 year old. I also think that he'd prefer to stay in the East based on us only ever hearing about interest in like the Knicks and Heat, although I did see some alleged interest in the Wolves yesterday too.
> I expect the draw of playing with Curry has diminished greatly given his age
Steph's been a lot healthier than Giannis over the last few years and other than his minutes going down slightly he's playing as well as he ever has - 31.2/36 while carrying an average (with Butler) to mediocre (without him) team.
I think it's more about not wanting to be in the West where almost all of the good teams are rather than not wanting to play for the Warriors or Steph specifically. Who cares if it only lasts another couple of years, he could ask for a trade and go somewhere else, which is way easier to do a second time than doing it the first time with the team that drafted you.
> Steph's been a lot healthier than Giannis over the last few years and other than his minutes going down slightly he's playing as well as he ever has - 31.2/36 while carrying an average (with Butler) to mediocre (without him) team.
We aren't comparing Curry with Giannis though, we are comparing Curry with the other players Giannis could team up with. None of this is really relevant to Giannis' choice imo.
> Who cares if it only lasts another couple of years, he could ask for a trade and go somewhere else
Well, doesn't it seem like Giannis cares? If he was the type to hop around, would it have taken him this long to request the trade? Not clear he is interested in hopping around, he might want this next team to be his last team.
> We aren't comparing Curry with Giannis though, we are comparing Curry with the other players Giannis could team up with
Fair enough.
> Well, doesn't it seem like Giannis cares? If he was the type to hop around, would it have taken him this long to request the trade?
I already addressed that; once you leave that first team, I don't think it's as big a deal. His family is already back in Greece so that's (probably) not a factor. "Not clear he is interested" sure but it's also not unclear, to me, at least that he's fixated on being traded only once for the rest of his career.
Lopez is currently #20 on Tankathon's big board, so as JZ alludes to, if we basically stand pat and don't cough up our pick, maybe right in our range, even if he rises a bit?
Thats what im counting on but wouldnt be surprised if he goes top 11 which in that case obviously im not hoping we crash and burn to end up with a top 10 pick
If this is on the table, and Giannis will extend, you have to do this. You can't let 2 role players stop you from getting a top-5 player to pair with Steph.
On the one hand, yes... on the other hand, you don't have a lot of years left, and after the trade you'll have nothing left to trade to improve the team. This year's team would be: Steph, Giannis (after he comes back from injury), Dray, Moses, Melton, Horford, Kuzma, Post, Gui, Buddy. Is that competing for a championship? This year? Hard to see it with a tough road to even get to the playoffs, and then have to go through all the top seeds.
Next year, we lose Melton, and Kuzma is eating cap so we can't sign anybody, and then we don't have any trade assets either. And after that, I think we start to see real Steph decline... and we don't have any young palyers or trade assets coming until we trade Giannis and start the tanking efforts.
However, if we keep Podz & Will, we've got a much better team this year and next that could actually compete. So, I don't really see the future of this team with Giannis unless we're able to keep good young role players.
No, certainly. Do you really think I am suggesting that, or are you just making dolls out of dry hay for argument's sake?
Cousin Nick put it quite well on the radio a few days back when this all started: If you trade everything for Giannis, then you've got Giannis, Steph, and Dray, which is certainly better than what they've got now... but does it put you close to the "championship contender" tier with OKC, DEN, SAS? No way. So, if that's the only path to get Giannis, it fails to achieve the objective of making a championship contender while also destroying the future outlook of the team, which is madness.
Now, if you can keep Podz and/or Richard, you've got a real back end of the rotation, and that's a risk I'd take. Maybe if Giannis were perfectly healthy RIGHT NOW, and not dealing with repeated calf injuries, maybe my math changes... but he's also injured on top of the other risks.
No, I must be misreading what you said, then? "However, if we keep Podz & Will, we've got a much better team this year and next that could actually compete."
Mostly agree. If we could keep one of either Podz or Will, there would be no holes (assuming health) and I’d like our chances this season. The problem is that Melton is increasingly important (second best on a Jimmy-less team) and if any trade can’t somehow make room to re-sign him next year, I could see us sliding fast.
All that said - a team with two of the best ten players in the NBA (as complementary as one could imagine) will attract FAs and I think I’d swallow hard and do it.
In order to attract those FAs, we have to have $$ to sign them. If we're sending Jimmy, JK, Podz, and Richard out, and bringing back Giannis, Kuzma, and Thanasis, we'll have ~$199M committed to 8 players, assuming Horford picks up his option, Melton doesn't, and they keep Buddy. The first apron shows up at $210M and the second apron at $223M. We need to sign 6 players, assuming one cheap-o rookie and 5 $2M vet mins, and you've got $210M committed. This is going to be a pretty set in stone and limited roster, without anything to help with trades.
Steph, Giannis, Dray, Kuzma, Moody, Buddy, Horford, TJD + 5 vet min + cheap-o rookie. I suppose we could get one high end vet min by offering a starting role, but that's a pretty bad roster for 26/27, imo. I don't really see it.
I'm out. Dude could pop his achilles at any time, and the team would be supremely screwed for a long time to come. If he were, like, four years younger, then it'd be worth it. Not now, though, that he's on the wrong side of 30 with a skillset that relies heavily on athleticism.
I think practically that’s about the most MIL will get out of a deal, but I’d think they would hold out for more (and may not get it).
They would get picks — which every deal needs just to get in the door — plus, if I may be brutally honest about players I like a lot: injured filler, a DNP who feuds with one of the best loved coaches in the league, connector role player, and ~10th best player in the draft with upside. Just not enough on the player side… none of those guys is even in the core closing lineup. We’re making up some with draft pick volume. If Giannis stays, all those draft picks will be probably out of the lottery. They also get off the Kuzma contract I guess.
Thought experiment: if Steph 2020 forced a trade, would you have been happy with this return? No way. You want a young star.
As for whether I would do that trade as GSW: yes. Get Giannis and Steph together, worry about the details later.
>As for whether I would do that trade as GSW: yes. Get Giannis and Steph together, worry about the details later.
For myself, I am not so sure. Let's say we do the trade as defined above and we don't get much help from a Kuminga trade (or keep Kuminga and he's not much help). Kuzma is a waste of a roster spot and Thanasis is required dead weight. Looking at the roster we have now, I have a hard time seeing it stay afloat in the West without Podz and Richard. It would be ANOTHER epic carry job by Steph and put a ton of wear and tear on him at a time when we need to be not doing that.
Giannis comes back in let's say five weeks, but when he comes back he's on a huge minutes restriction and not playing back-to-backs because of course you're going to be as careful as you can. Under those conditions it seems unlikely we make any kind of a push to get out of the play-in. So I think there's a decent chance we miss the playoffs (likely a play-in elimination since I don't think falling out of the play-in is likely).
Meanwhile we're essentially giving up FIVE first round picks AND two of our three most promising young players. Talk about mortgaging the future. For me, if we're giving up that much draft capital we have to be able to hang on to Podz OR Richard, either of who will help stabilize things this year and also be a cost-controlled young talent for the future. If not, I walk.
I can see that, but I’d be willing to write off this season (I consider us toast anyway) to take a shot with Giannis and Steph next season and have a decent chance to reload around Giannis elongating/revitalizing Steph’s career tail. As the #1 Richard fan, I can’t let any one or two role players stop the re-shaping of the franchise.
And sure, I’ll eat a Kyle Kuzma or two. If we were trading FOR Steph Curry 2020, would we say no thanks, we don’t want an overpaid player? I’m trading the farm for a franchise changer and potential Steph saver. I don’t think any other plans are nearly as good. There’s always the “ride this out and try to get Giannis in free agency in 2 years”, but my money is on Giannis extending. Then if he wants a trade, no problem, let the rebuild begin with that.
And how do you propose doing that when we have almost no young talent and no picks? I'm not sure drafting wherever in the second round is going to help us "reload". Not trying to be obstinate here, I just don't really understand this plan.
> hen if he wants a trade, no problem, let the rebuild begin with that.
I guess in this scenario you're hoping to restock the fridge with 1st round picks, but I'm not sure he's commanding the princely sum mentioned above after two years in Golden State.
I don't think you're being obstinate, this is exactly the kind of thing that planners should worry about!
But the specific trade discussed would leave a team of
Steph Curry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Kyle Kuzma
Quinten Post*
Moses Moody*
Gary Payton II
Buddy Hield
Draymond Green
Gui Santos*
Trayce Jackson-Davis*
Pat Spencer*
Al Horford
De’Anthony Melton
Malevy Leons*
LJ Cryer*
Seth Curry
with the * players in the realm of "young talent".
The young players we lose are
* Kuminga - DNP & does not seem tradable for good young player
* Richard - we just drafted him at the bottom of the 2nd round and we've had a great run of doing so
* Podziemski
So that leaves Quinten, Moses, Gui, Trayce, Pat and long shots. In some ways these players may have been held back from too much competition with other young players.
So anyway, are they future stars? Maybe not, but this doesn't look to me like an empty cupboard.
And Giannis's trade value will surely go down, but as long as he doesn't leave GSW outright in free agency (I agree that is a worry), GSW can get something back.
- Steph has to sign for an old man discount - say $25-$35 million?, so a large portion of his salary is off the books
- Dray has to sign for a small contract or retire or sign somewhere else
At that point I guess you have a lot of salary off the books and can get way under the cap and sign actual good free agents and rebuild that way. No drafting (no good picks) except for late 2nd round fliers, no trades as you have no draft compensation to trade... but I guess there is a potential here. It's hard to imagine actually being able to sign players competitively with how long the Warriors have been over the cap/1st apron.
Small aside on the subject of Milwaukee's temptation to wait this out:
In addition to the possibility of new teams entering the bidding this summer, there are also two young all-stars who will be newly available to trade: Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams.
Obviously the odds aren’t super high that they’ll be offered either one of those guys, but it’s well within the range of realistic possibilities. And unless they can find a way to re-acquire their own picks, I could see them favoring a package of, say, 2 FRPs plus Banchero or J-Dub over anything else that’s been floated. No immediate incentive to tank, and sets them up for additional trade(s) down the line (a la Durant-for-Bridges/Johnson-for-picks/MPJ...)
It would be nice to extort Milwaukee and keep a draft pick or Richard, but yes, you pretty much have to take this deal if you're the Warriors - bench players+picks+distressed assets for a top 5 player in the league. The alternative is to keep on doing nothing and draft players not on Steph's timeline, as if he's going to be playing when he's 50.
Even if Steph has 3 more incredible years, Giannis is looking a lot like he’ll be playing sub 50% of games by then at who knows what movement level, that still leaves 2 fantastic draft picks and a swap over those last 3 years. Those could be the most valuable picks in the league in that span.
And hey it’s a far better return than the Mavs got for Luka.
"And hey it’s a far better return than the Mavs got for Luka." Yep, after which Nico Harrison got fired for that trade (albeit he was probably following orders and got scapegoated).
Ew... we're giving up 3 young players with real upside, and 4 picks (presumably with minimal protection), and a swap?
Remaining rotation is: Steph, Giannis (after he comes back from injury), Dray, Moses, Melton, Horford, Kuzma, Post, Gui, Buddy? I don't really like it... so it passes the ARTM test... blech
Suns are going to beat the Pistons tonight - tomorrow is going to be hard. We have two things going for is - Steph and our ability to make steals - Pistons with Cade handling seem to turn it over a lot!!!
He was in the top 75 just last season, so according to EPM his value on the scoreboard has dropped off quite a bit so far this season.
But note that these rankings can change quickly. The last time I looked, GPII was ranked in the top 120, Moody was somewhere around 100, and Podz was not in the top 200, for example.
Thanks. Really thought Dubs were doing something special in the steals department and the data confirm it. Hard to imagine no team has done something similar in the last 28 years.
Nice showing for the Original Glove. Sonics have the third to twelfth most recent steals 4 game streaks
Man that is a funny list. The '75 Championship Warriors had four such spans in the month of January over the course of twelve games, totaling 177 steals. There were two games in the middle where they "fell off" and only got 10 and 8 steals. You can also look at it as two spans of five games with at least 77 steals.
preview is up: https://dubnationhq.com/p/trade-chatter-aside-the-warriors
"The Warriors are ready to offer a “whole lot” for Giannis Antetokounmpo and consider Steph Curry the only untouchable player on the roster, per @MontePooleNBCS"
https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/giannis-antetokounmpo-trade-pursuit-steph-curry/1911372/
Cmon MDJ - make it happen!
While I do think the Warriors are a leader, maybe THE leader, to get Giannis if they trade him before the deadline, I am having a hard time seeing why they would do that when their options could be so much more dynamic come the offseason. As such, I am mostly resigned at this point to not getting him, which is a comfortable place to be as a seasoned Giants fan and also as someone who doesn't necessarily want to deal with the dark side of where this could all go if we give up everything and then Giannis gets badly injured.
> and also as someone who doesn't necessarily want to deal with the dark side of where this could all go if we give up everything and then Giannis gets badly injured.
I definitely understand this concern, only thing I'd say is that I don't think the Warriors have any good options, everything has a substantial dark side at this point including standing pat.
Two potential reasons to trade Giannis before the deadline:
1) He demands this because he and Curry only have so many seasons to try to win another Championship together and he wants to be supermaxxed ASAP, and/or
2) the Bucks think that their trade options will diminish come the summer because at that point Giannis will zero in on whichever team or teams he prefers and declare his intention not sign with any other team willing to give up the store for him.
If neither of these two reasons exist, I agree that the Bucks will probably wait.
There are 3 major reasons why the Bucks might prefer trading him now: 1) Giannis might prefer having a shot this year and they might want to oblige him 2) if there's no guarantee of extension, 1.5 years of Giannis is a lot more valuable than 1. Giannis can use that threat to choose where to go. And 3) if there's any risk of reinjury with this calf strain, you pass that risk now before something drastic happens.
That said, I share skepticism that the Warriors can get this done.
Preview will be up in about an hour or so , giving this one some time in the sunshine
I’ve been trying to tell you all but you all are letting a hypothetical trade that will never happen get your hopes up when the real answered prayer will be having his name called up in this upcoming draft. Won’t cost us much other than not making any major moves this trade deadline. #CAREENFORKARIM!
https://xcancel.com/OlgunUluc/status/2017158614134497505#m
@OlgunUluc
3h
Monster game from projected 2026 lottery pick Karim Lopez: new career-high 32 points (11/13 FG, 1/2 3PT, 9/12 FT) + 8 rebounds in the NZ Breakers’ win over MEL.
The 18-year-old had 19 points in the 4th Q, scoring at all three levels against one of the best defences in the NBL.
@OlgunUluc
3h
Lopez took over in the 4th Q for an extremely undermanned New Zealand Breakers side to keep their play-in hopes well and truly alive. Unbelievably impressive stuff, and with Golden State Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy sitting courtside.
You're probably right that our Ws aren't getting Giannis (85-90% per Vegas?) but as long as you're telling everyone it's 100%, can I assume you've also called your bookie and bet the house and farm accordingly? 😉
Idk I think this team standing pat at the deadline is still probably the 8 seed in the west. I don’t expect our pick to get that high unless steph gets hurt for the rest of the season too, or they ship out Melton and Horford.
Warch, they do nothing and finally Kuminga is free to make as many mistakes as needed to get better.
That would be wild
Yeah I'm still very skeptical about this Giannis trade. I don't think we've ever really heard that Giannis has interest in playing in the Bay Area, the interest has always felt one-sided on Lacob's part.
If this scenario was happening 5-10 years ago I'm guessing Giannis would be convinced, but I expect the draw of playing with Curry has diminished greatly given his age. Last deadline we saw that the Warriors were the second choice for Butler (and that KD didn't want to come although there was baggage there that was probably Curry-independent).
If I'm Giannis I'd want to go to a team with Edwards or Wembanyama, not a team led by a 38 year old. I also think that he'd prefer to stay in the East based on us only ever hearing about interest in like the Knicks and Heat, although I did see some alleged interest in the Wolves yesterday too.
Each way, Minny is about 3 to 4 hours closer to Athens than SF on a private jet. Not insignificant.
> I expect the draw of playing with Curry has diminished greatly given his age
Steph's been a lot healthier than Giannis over the last few years and other than his minutes going down slightly he's playing as well as he ever has - 31.2/36 while carrying an average (with Butler) to mediocre (without him) team.
I think it's more about not wanting to be in the West where almost all of the good teams are rather than not wanting to play for the Warriors or Steph specifically. Who cares if it only lasts another couple of years, he could ask for a trade and go somewhere else, which is way easier to do a second time than doing it the first time with the team that drafted you.
> Steph's been a lot healthier than Giannis over the last few years and other than his minutes going down slightly he's playing as well as he ever has - 31.2/36 while carrying an average (with Butler) to mediocre (without him) team.
We aren't comparing Curry with Giannis though, we are comparing Curry with the other players Giannis could team up with. None of this is really relevant to Giannis' choice imo.
> Who cares if it only lasts another couple of years, he could ask for a trade and go somewhere else
Well, doesn't it seem like Giannis cares? If he was the type to hop around, would it have taken him this long to request the trade? Not clear he is interested in hopping around, he might want this next team to be his last team.
> We aren't comparing Curry with Giannis though, we are comparing Curry with the other players Giannis could team up with
Fair enough.
> Well, doesn't it seem like Giannis cares? If he was the type to hop around, would it have taken him this long to request the trade?
I already addressed that; once you leave that first team, I don't think it's as big a deal. His family is already back in Greece so that's (probably) not a factor. "Not clear he is interested" sure but it's also not unclear, to me, at least that he's fixated on being traded only once for the rest of his career.
The way his trade request was put seems to support that he doesn’t want to hop around. Said he was ready for a new “home.”
I didn't see that, so if he did in fact say that, it would change what I wrote above and make the Warriors seem like less of an option.
Lopez is currently #20 on Tankathon's big board, so as JZ alludes to, if we basically stand pat and don't cough up our pick, maybe right in our range, even if he rises a bit?
https://www.tankathon.com/big_board
Karim is famous for rising to the top
(Sorry. I’ll see myself out.)
Thats what im counting on but wouldnt be surprised if he goes top 11 which in that case obviously im not hoping we crash and burn to end up with a top 10 pick
Bad standings results for the Dubs tonight - Wolves beat Thunder, Suns beat Pistons, Nuggets beat Nets, Rockets beat Hawks - i.e. nothing went our way. Gotta win tomorrow!
Potential framework suggested by Evan Sidery
Bucks: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, 2026 1st, 2028 1st, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st
Warriors: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Geez. I looked at that and didn’t choke until I saw Will Richard. What is wrong with me?
Evan Sidery doesn't suggest anything, he steals other people's suggestions
With this kind of stuff, it’s pretty easy to come up with that based on names that have come out and knowing how to play with the Trade Machine.
I’ve come up with a couple but didn’t share them because I figured they’d already been shared by someone else.
If this is on the table, and Giannis will extend, you have to do this. You can't let 2 role players stop you from getting a top-5 player to pair with Steph.
On the one hand, yes... on the other hand, you don't have a lot of years left, and after the trade you'll have nothing left to trade to improve the team. This year's team would be: Steph, Giannis (after he comes back from injury), Dray, Moses, Melton, Horford, Kuzma, Post, Gui, Buddy. Is that competing for a championship? This year? Hard to see it with a tough road to even get to the playoffs, and then have to go through all the top seeds.
Next year, we lose Melton, and Kuzma is eating cap so we can't sign anybody, and then we don't have any trade assets either. And after that, I think we start to see real Steph decline... and we don't have any young palyers or trade assets coming until we trade Giannis and start the tanking efforts.
However, if we keep Podz & Will, we've got a much better team this year and next that could actually compete. So, I don't really see the future of this team with Giannis unless we're able to keep good young role players.
Is your argument that Podz and Will Richard are better than Giannis? A much better team this year and next year?
I'll have to strongly disagree with that.
No, certainly. Do you really think I am suggesting that, or are you just making dolls out of dry hay for argument's sake?
Cousin Nick put it quite well on the radio a few days back when this all started: If you trade everything for Giannis, then you've got Giannis, Steph, and Dray, which is certainly better than what they've got now... but does it put you close to the "championship contender" tier with OKC, DEN, SAS? No way. So, if that's the only path to get Giannis, it fails to achieve the objective of making a championship contender while also destroying the future outlook of the team, which is madness.
Now, if you can keep Podz and/or Richard, you've got a real back end of the rotation, and that's a risk I'd take. Maybe if Giannis were perfectly healthy RIGHT NOW, and not dealing with repeated calf injuries, maybe my math changes... but he's also injured on top of the other risks.
No, I must be misreading what you said, then? "However, if we keep Podz & Will, we've got a much better team this year and next that could actually compete."
I meant “If we keep them from leaving in the Giannis trade.”
Mostly agree. If we could keep one of either Podz or Will, there would be no holes (assuming health) and I’d like our chances this season. The problem is that Melton is increasingly important (second best on a Jimmy-less team) and if any trade can’t somehow make room to re-sign him next year, I could see us sliding fast.
All that said - a team with two of the best ten players in the NBA (as complementary as one could imagine) will attract FAs and I think I’d swallow hard and do it.
In order to attract those FAs, we have to have $$ to sign them. If we're sending Jimmy, JK, Podz, and Richard out, and bringing back Giannis, Kuzma, and Thanasis, we'll have ~$199M committed to 8 players, assuming Horford picks up his option, Melton doesn't, and they keep Buddy. The first apron shows up at $210M and the second apron at $223M. We need to sign 6 players, assuming one cheap-o rookie and 5 $2M vet mins, and you've got $210M committed. This is going to be a pretty set in stone and limited roster, without anything to help with trades.
Steph, Giannis, Dray, Kuzma, Moody, Buddy, Horford, TJD + 5 vet min + cheap-o rookie. I suppose we could get one high end vet min by offering a starting role, but that's a pretty bad roster for 26/27, imo. I don't really see it.
No. Not taking Kuzma.
No, thanks.
A little too Rich for my blood. I'd be ok if we at least get Ryan Rollins back.
I'm out. Dude could pop his achilles at any time, and the team would be supremely screwed for a long time to come. If he were, like, four years younger, then it'd be worth it. Not now, though, that he's on the wrong side of 30 with a skillset that relies heavily on athleticism.
I think practically that’s about the most MIL will get out of a deal, but I’d think they would hold out for more (and may not get it).
They would get picks — which every deal needs just to get in the door — plus, if I may be brutally honest about players I like a lot: injured filler, a DNP who feuds with one of the best loved coaches in the league, connector role player, and ~10th best player in the draft with upside. Just not enough on the player side… none of those guys is even in the core closing lineup. We’re making up some with draft pick volume. If Giannis stays, all those draft picks will be probably out of the lottery. They also get off the Kuzma contract I guess.
Thought experiment: if Steph 2020 forced a trade, would you have been happy with this return? No way. You want a young star.
As for whether I would do that trade as GSW: yes. Get Giannis and Steph together, worry about the details later.
>As for whether I would do that trade as GSW: yes. Get Giannis and Steph together, worry about the details later.
For myself, I am not so sure. Let's say we do the trade as defined above and we don't get much help from a Kuminga trade (or keep Kuminga and he's not much help). Kuzma is a waste of a roster spot and Thanasis is required dead weight. Looking at the roster we have now, I have a hard time seeing it stay afloat in the West without Podz and Richard. It would be ANOTHER epic carry job by Steph and put a ton of wear and tear on him at a time when we need to be not doing that.
Giannis comes back in let's say five weeks, but when he comes back he's on a huge minutes restriction and not playing back-to-backs because of course you're going to be as careful as you can. Under those conditions it seems unlikely we make any kind of a push to get out of the play-in. So I think there's a decent chance we miss the playoffs (likely a play-in elimination since I don't think falling out of the play-in is likely).
Meanwhile we're essentially giving up FIVE first round picks AND two of our three most promising young players. Talk about mortgaging the future. For me, if we're giving up that much draft capital we have to be able to hang on to Podz OR Richard, either of who will help stabilize things this year and also be a cost-controlled young talent for the future. If not, I walk.
Just my two cents.
I can see that, but I’d be willing to write off this season (I consider us toast anyway) to take a shot with Giannis and Steph next season and have a decent chance to reload around Giannis elongating/revitalizing Steph’s career tail. As the #1 Richard fan, I can’t let any one or two role players stop the re-shaping of the franchise.
And sure, I’ll eat a Kyle Kuzma or two. If we were trading FOR Steph Curry 2020, would we say no thanks, we don’t want an overpaid player? I’m trading the farm for a franchise changer and potential Steph saver. I don’t think any other plans are nearly as good. There’s always the “ride this out and try to get Giannis in free agency in 2 years”, but my money is on Giannis extending. Then if he wants a trade, no problem, let the rebuild begin with that.
> have a decent chance to reload around Giannis
And how do you propose doing that when we have almost no young talent and no picks? I'm not sure drafting wherever in the second round is going to help us "reload". Not trying to be obstinate here, I just don't really understand this plan.
> hen if he wants a trade, no problem, let the rebuild begin with that.
I guess in this scenario you're hoping to restock the fridge with 1st round picks, but I'm not sure he's commanding the princely sum mentioned above after two years in Golden State.
I don't think you're being obstinate, this is exactly the kind of thing that planners should worry about!
But the specific trade discussed would leave a team of
Steph Curry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Kyle Kuzma
Quinten Post*
Moses Moody*
Gary Payton II
Buddy Hield
Draymond Green
Gui Santos*
Trayce Jackson-Davis*
Pat Spencer*
Al Horford
De’Anthony Melton
Malevy Leons*
LJ Cryer*
Seth Curry
with the * players in the realm of "young talent".
The young players we lose are
* Kuminga - DNP & does not seem tradable for good young player
* Richard - we just drafted him at the bottom of the 2nd round and we've had a great run of doing so
* Podziemski
So that leaves Quinten, Moses, Gui, Trayce, Pat and long shots. In some ways these players may have been held back from too much competition with other young players.
So anyway, are they future stars? Maybe not, but this doesn't look to me like an empty cupboard.
And Giannis's trade value will surely go down, but as long as he doesn't leave GSW outright in free agency (I agree that is a worry), GSW can get something back.
Thanks for the detailed response, will read through it when I have a little more time :)
I guess as far as the "reload" goes...
- Steph has to sign for an old man discount - say $25-$35 million?, so a large portion of his salary is off the books
- Dray has to sign for a small contract or retire or sign somewhere else
At that point I guess you have a lot of salary off the books and can get way under the cap and sign actual good free agents and rebuild that way. No drafting (no good picks) except for late 2nd round fliers, no trades as you have no draft compensation to trade... but I guess there is a potential here. It's hard to imagine actually being able to sign players competitively with how long the Warriors have been over the cap/1st apron.
Small aside on the subject of Milwaukee's temptation to wait this out:
In addition to the possibility of new teams entering the bidding this summer, there are also two young all-stars who will be newly available to trade: Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams.
Obviously the odds aren’t super high that they’ll be offered either one of those guys, but it’s well within the range of realistic possibilities. And unless they can find a way to re-acquire their own picks, I could see them favoring a package of, say, 2 FRPs plus Banchero or J-Dub over anything else that’s been floated. No immediate incentive to tank, and sets them up for additional trade(s) down the line (a la Durant-for-Bridges/Johnson-for-picks/MPJ...)
It would be nice to extort Milwaukee and keep a draft pick or Richard, but yes, you pretty much have to take this deal if you're the Warriors - bench players+picks+distressed assets for a top 5 player in the league. The alternative is to keep on doing nothing and draft players not on Steph's timeline, as if he's going to be playing when he's 50.
"Is DubNation worth one good man's life? We believed it once. Make us believe it again. He is a Warrior For Life. Honor him."
I hope someone can convince Milwaukee that:
Even if Steph has 3 more incredible years, Giannis is looking a lot like he’ll be playing sub 50% of games by then at who knows what movement level, that still leaves 2 fantastic draft picks and a swap over those last 3 years. Those could be the most valuable picks in the league in that span.
And hey it’s a far better return than the Mavs got for Luka.
"And hey it’s a far better return than the Mavs got for Luka." Yep, after which Nico Harrison got fired for that trade (albeit he was probably following orders and got scapegoated).
I just think all star trades should have a line comparing them to the Luka trade going forward.
Ew... we're giving up 3 young players with real upside, and 4 picks (presumably with minimal protection), and a swap?
Remaining rotation is: Steph, Giannis (after he comes back from injury), Dray, Moses, Melton, Horford, Kuzma, Post, Gui, Buddy? I don't really like it... so it passes the ARTM test... blech
For a Giannis that wants out and is out 4-6 weeks with a calf injury that has been a recurring issue over the last four-ish years…
Yeah, no thanks.
They better not be giving away this much… Keep Podz and Will, plz…
Minny beats OKC to give them their 11th loss.
-2
Bulls 2nd place record still protected.
I'm off the socials for the general strike tomorrow. Let's get that W!
will be at it too - stay safe - heard that some ahole in a maga car hit a kid in freemont today!!
Suns are going to beat the Pistons tonight - tomorrow is going to be hard. We have two things going for is - Steph and our ability to make steals - Pistons with Cade handling seem to turn it over a lot!!!
Pistons have trouble scoring on a zone defense and the Warriors may be the team that plays the most zone.
Pistons let Brooks drop 40 on them.
well lets hope moody can emulate brooks tomorrow
Actual Estimated Plus/Minus (as of 1/29)
1. SGA
2. Jokic
3. Giannis
4. Wemby
5. Kawhi
6. Luka
7. Steph
8. Holmgran
9. Donovan Mitchell
10. Cade Cunningham
11. Kristas Porzingis
12. Tyrese Maxey
13. Jimmu Butler III
14. Zach Edey
15. Austin Reaves
16. Derrick White
17. Kevin Durant
18. Lauri Markkanen
19. LaMelo Ball
20. Jamal Murray
Select Warriors, ex-Warriors, and players of interest
25. Michael Porter, Jr.
29. Ajay Mitchell
30. Jalen Duren
31. Ant
32. Franz Wagner
33. Neemias Queta
34. Deni Avdija
43. Devin Booker
48. Paul George
50. Donte DeVincenzo
51. Moses Moody
57. Trey Murphy III
58. Kon Knueppel (first rookie)
59. Pascal Siakam
61. AD
62. Alperen Sengun
63. Donovan Clingan
64. Trae Young
65. Jarrett Allen
72. Jalen Johnson
73. Tyler Herro
84. Alex Caruso
87. Ryan Rollins
93. Cam Spencer
100. Coby White
105. Dillon Brooks
106. LeBron James
109. Josh Giddey
111. Zion Williamson
114. Cedric Coward (second rookie)
121. Paolo Banchero
123. Quinten Post
124. Miles Turner
126. Desmond Bane
127. Time Lord
131. VJ Edgecombe (third rookies)
136. Brandon Ingram
138. De'Anthony Melton
148. Podz
149. Nic Claxton
151. John Collins
154. Jerami Grant
169. Harrison Barnes
172. Andrew Wiggins
173. Will Richards (fourth rookie)
175. Colin Sexton
181. Asa Newell
183. Hugo Gonzales
188. TJD
198. Al Horford
201. Kel'el Ware
203. Egor Demin
204. CJ McCollum
208. Herb Jones
211. Deandra Ayton
213. Russell Westbrook
215. Klay Thompson
228. DeMar DeRozan
229. Draymond Green
232. Tyrese Proctor
236. Royce O'Neal
237. Zach LaVine
247. Gui Santos
254. Cooper Flagg
256. GPII
259. Lonzo Ball
261. Khris Middleton
268. Domantas Sabonis
278. Bobby Portis
279. Malik Monk
285. Rui Hachimura
289. Andre Drummund
297. Pat Spencer
309. Buddy Hield
310. Dennis Schroder
320. Derik Queen
324. Daniel Gafford
340. Kevon Looney
357. Keegan Murray
359. Kyle Filipowski
369. Chris Boucher
371. Jonathan Kuminga
372. Jordan Poole
377. Keon Ellis
378. Mike Conley
390. Walter Clayton, Jr.
392. Devin Carter
396. Bronny James
397. Ace Bailey
400. Slomo
414. Tyus Jones
421. Dalton Knecht
422. Cam Whitmore
425. Jeremiah Fears
444. Patrick Williams
455 (out of 462). Nick Richards
Draymond 229....
He was in the top 75 just last season, so according to EPM his value on the scoreboard has dropped off quite a bit so far this season.
But note that these rankings can change quickly. The last time I looked, GPII was ranked in the top 120, Moody was somewhere around 100, and Podz was not in the top 200, for example.
> 93. Cam Spencer
This was my guy in the 2024 draft tournament, would have been a perfect fit for the Warriors.
would you trade Post for him straight up right now?
Flagg at 254. Must not be that good.
LOL. The Q in Basketball IQ is the age adjustment quotient.
Nice list. Lots of Jazz players near the bottom.
Can you do a query of how many times a team had at least 63 steals in a four game stretch?
It has happened 39 times, but never before the Warriors' current streak since the 1997-98 season: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/pQhNM
Thanks. Really thought Dubs were doing something special in the steals department and the data confirm it. Hard to imagine no team has done something similar in the last 28 years.
Nice showing for the Original Glove. Sonics have the third to twelfth most recent steals 4 game streaks
Man that is a funny list. The '75 Championship Warriors had four such spans in the month of January over the course of twelve games, totaling 177 steals. There were two games in the middle where they "fell off" and only got 10 and 8 steals. You can also look at it as two spans of five games with at least 77 steals.
Oh, they went 7-5 during that stretch
Just turned 19. Crazy how good that young Mainer is gonna be.