The hardest part about being a parent, for me, is knowing that you can only do so much for your kids. You can teach them about morals and doing unto others and working hard, etc, etc... But at some point you have to let go an allow them to make decisions on their own....
I feel as a coach your responsibility is to teach your players how to play the game the right way, you can run plays that get them open, but at some point it is up to them to get the shot in the basket. Kerr can't make the shot for this team he can only get them in the right positions. For this reason I think "Kerrball" is absolutely beautiful art. Sometimes the shots go in, sometimes they don't.
We are missing our on-court-conductor so it's no wonder things have gone a bit awry. Please, for all those clamoring to trade Draymond for some statistical sugar cube, remember this stretch. Draymond is makes this team beautiful. He makes Steph Steph, Klay Klay and the Warriors the team we have come to know and appreciate.
Maybe a key to helping Steph and Klay is more Otto. Wondering how many more minutes he can play. I know he's had some fragile years but he's seemed robust this year. And he's playing very well. He's only playing 21 minutes per game and in that time is shooting 47% FG 40% from three. He plays better defense than I thought he would, gets rebounds, makes the pass. And I'd say one of his best assets is he's appropriately confident on offense. If he's open, he shoots. If it's covered, he moves it along crisply. Sets intelligent picks. I think that more Otto as opposed to, say, Iguodala, would open things up for Steph more, (with a cost on defense). With a healthy Draymond, maybe our optimal small-ball lineup is Draymond Otto Klay Steph Wiggins. Maybe?
I don’t think the issue with Kerr’s offense is necessarily predicated around whether or not Curry should get more isolation or PnR touches. The issue is that Kerrball absolutely requires that, on average, you have at least one great 3p shooter on the court. Second, said shooter can’t be in a slump. Without those two ingredients, Kerrball, in its present iteration and on average, is seemingly mediocre. This is what I think KD meant when he said Kerr’s system was limited. KD also stated that’s one of the reasons he bounced to Jersey.
These predications are a problem when, as mentioned, Curry and/or Klay are slumping, or if one is injured and the other is slumping. It is also problematic in regards to the bench, either when Curry is not on the court during a game or simply not in the game. Running the same system without the same elite level of talent is asking too much of the rest of the team. That Jupiter-level gravity is essential in order for the rest of the system to function.
This is why imo Kerr’s teams rarely keep on trucking without Curry, unlike the teams of Spoelstra and Popovich. Even Memphis won 10 games without Ja.
I think Kerr needs to evolve/amend the offense for when those scenarios inevitably present themselves. This probably means running a more traditional style of offense.
Fascinating article, thank you. ‘Which one of these teams is not like the others’ is a powerful salute to Kerr’s courage and an indictment of the rest of the league’s cowardice. It can’t be that the “Pro” style is ideal for all combinations of players. And yet the other teams predominantly use that? Crazy.
I’m really curious about how and whether Kerr will evolve in 5+ years, after Curry has retired. With different players/different skills, will he find a new way to transform that talent into victories? Or will he be stuck trying to find a Curry v2?
Jan 23, 2022·edited Jan 23, 2022Liked by punk basketball
Steph's "Spot Up" has traditionally been elite. Last season: 1.29 PPP... better than his Isolation PPP this season (and in fact, every prior season with data his "Spot Up" has always been way better than his Isolation PPP). In '15-16 he was at 1.5 PPP for Spot Up.
OT, Can anyone confirm/noticed if GPII's nonchalant post dunk celebration is the head scratch? We all saw it bait Bitadze into a head butt but then I noticed him do it on this dunk too
Play Wiggins more with the bench and less next to curry and klay, get him being aggressive next to Poole and kuminga. Sub in GP2 and Otto to play next to curry and klay and let Poole gp2 iggy Wiggins and kuminga be the second unit, feel like the offense will be more balanced
Felt like the Warriors had the tiebreaker all but locked up after that win in Utah, but Draymond's injury certainly changed things. Win this one and they'll probably still have it. Hopefully Gobert is out.
IIRC, the Dubs did change their offense a bit in the '17 and '18 playoffs, and featured much more Durant/Curry PNR and Durant isos. I think Kerr once again is playing the long game and will keep some of the tricks in his bag until the games really count. If we can stave off any serious injuries to our key guys, WGBC.
Interesting analysis on the different types of offenses. If accurate, then the fact that Warriors play a different style means they should win some games on unfamiliarity alone, much like a left-handed tennis player. OTOH, after so many years successfully playing this style, there are well-scouted counters - at this point, doubling and pressuring Steph, preparing to jump passing lanes, playing quick, long-armed defenders (yeah, if you have them!).
2 suggestions: (1) regularly put Curry in one of those isolation/sensory deprivation chambers he was reported to use a few years ago - he needs some quiet time; and (2) have Brown and Atkinson assume head coaching duties for a couple of games in a row, or have the players coach themselves (perhaps less obviously than in that game against Phoenix a couple of years ago). This latter suggestion is in keeping with Kerr's insistence on "role players" getting some attention and can offer some nuance to what Kerr is doing.
Nice article. I have always been a big believer in the Warriors philosophy on both sides of the ball. To sum up both, I see Kerr as a card counter. All things being equal (possessions), if your offensive FG% is higher and your opponents FG% is lower, you will likely win. Thus, make a bad shot a good shot and a good shot a great shot and the reverse against one's opponent. HOW they go about that is what it is, but both styles, offensive and defensive, are geared to accomplish the card counting goal = better percentages.
While I would love to wax poetic about the Warrior's offense (and defense), I will stick to the topic of the article: criticism of Kerr. My own criticism is mostly held for rotations and situational personnel. Kerr likes his vets. He's not a 'developmental' coach and he would probably be the first person to tell you. The Dubs addressed this as an organization by shoring up the coaching staff with high end player development coaches. But in game, he will always default to the less skilled veteran who is playing hard and know what they are doing vs. the young talent who will blow an assignment one play, but then win on the next play due to their higher end talent. Either way, you have to take the good with the bad. D Lee's game against Houston was filled with 'you're just not that talented' plays AND 'damn, way to hustle, nice shot' plays. It's good and bad. I tend to believe that someone like Moody could have just as many good & bad plays as D Lee, they would just be different. Blow assignments (bad) and winning plays on talent (good). IN Kerr's world, he would much rather live with "my guy got beat on talent" than "my guy blew his assignment".
My criticism in this area is that it is very hard for young players to get consistent minutes (even if short) in which they are allowed to make a few mistakes without feeling like one mistake will have them DNPed for the next 2 weeks. We could all see at the end of Poole's first year that he improved with the ball in his hands more. Yet we had to put up Wannamaker and even Mannion as Kerr was reluctant to give Poole a little leash.
If the Warriors are going to win a Chip, I feel like JK and Moody should be jumping JTA & Lee in the pecking order. But it's hard to see them getting there based on Kerr's taking 3 years to have any trust in a player.
I have some other minor complaints, but they are all just nitpicking. The Warriors are the only team in the League to play the way they play with 29 other teams all playing a different way. Does anyone know how hard that is, what brass balls it takes to NOT do what everyone else is doing? So yeah, as fans we can always find something to complain about. But big picture, Kerr is the man. He unleashed a system with Steph-Klay-Dray that damn near broke the NBA and is still giving them fits today. How many other coaches in the league would have been willing to go ALL IN on a philosophy that threw out the traditional NBA playbook? Few. Very few.
Yes, I will keep complaining about rotations, situational decisions, a lack of an offensive game plan when their style gets stuck in the mud. That's my God given right as a fan. But at the end of the day, Steve is my guy. I wouldn't want anyone else coaching this team.
The hardest part about being a parent, for me, is knowing that you can only do so much for your kids. You can teach them about morals and doing unto others and working hard, etc, etc... But at some point you have to let go an allow them to make decisions on their own....
I feel as a coach your responsibility is to teach your players how to play the game the right way, you can run plays that get them open, but at some point it is up to them to get the shot in the basket. Kerr can't make the shot for this team he can only get them in the right positions. For this reason I think "Kerrball" is absolutely beautiful art. Sometimes the shots go in, sometimes they don't.
We are missing our on-court-conductor so it's no wonder things have gone a bit awry. Please, for all those clamoring to trade Draymond for some statistical sugar cube, remember this stretch. Draymond is makes this team beautiful. He makes Steph Steph, Klay Klay and the Warriors the team we have come to know and appreciate.
Maybe a key to helping Steph and Klay is more Otto. Wondering how many more minutes he can play. I know he's had some fragile years but he's seemed robust this year. And he's playing very well. He's only playing 21 minutes per game and in that time is shooting 47% FG 40% from three. He plays better defense than I thought he would, gets rebounds, makes the pass. And I'd say one of his best assets is he's appropriately confident on offense. If he's open, he shoots. If it's covered, he moves it along crisply. Sets intelligent picks. I think that more Otto as opposed to, say, Iguodala, would open things up for Steph more, (with a cost on defense). With a healthy Draymond, maybe our optimal small-ball lineup is Draymond Otto Klay Steph Wiggins. Maybe?
I don’t think the issue with Kerr’s offense is necessarily predicated around whether or not Curry should get more isolation or PnR touches. The issue is that Kerrball absolutely requires that, on average, you have at least one great 3p shooter on the court. Second, said shooter can’t be in a slump. Without those two ingredients, Kerrball, in its present iteration and on average, is seemingly mediocre. This is what I think KD meant when he said Kerr’s system was limited. KD also stated that’s one of the reasons he bounced to Jersey.
These predications are a problem when, as mentioned, Curry and/or Klay are slumping, or if one is injured and the other is slumping. It is also problematic in regards to the bench, either when Curry is not on the court during a game or simply not in the game. Running the same system without the same elite level of talent is asking too much of the rest of the team. That Jupiter-level gravity is essential in order for the rest of the system to function.
This is why imo Kerr’s teams rarely keep on trucking without Curry, unlike the teams of Spoelstra and Popovich. Even Memphis won 10 games without Ja.
I think Kerr needs to evolve/amend the offense for when those scenarios inevitably present themselves. This probably means running a more traditional style of offense.
Fascinating article, thank you. ‘Which one of these teams is not like the others’ is a powerful salute to Kerr’s courage and an indictment of the rest of the league’s cowardice. It can’t be that the “Pro” style is ideal for all combinations of players. And yet the other teams predominantly use that? Crazy.
I’m really curious about how and whether Kerr will evolve in 5+ years, after Curry has retired. With different players/different skills, will he find a new way to transform that talent into victories? Or will he be stuck trying to find a Curry v2?
Steph's "Spot Up" has traditionally been elite. Last season: 1.29 PPP... better than his Isolation PPP this season (and in fact, every prior season with data his "Spot Up" has always been way better than his Isolation PPP). In '15-16 he was at 1.5 PPP for Spot Up.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/spot-up/?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Curry&SeasonYear=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season
This might also explain why I don't enjoy watching other teams play their Iso/PnR heavy styles as much. Not just because I'm a Dub fan!
OT, Can anyone confirm/noticed if GPII's nonchalant post dunk celebration is the head scratch? We all saw it bait Bitadze into a head butt but then I noticed him do it on this dunk too
https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1456843626483355649
https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mvp-nikola-jokic-giannis-stephen-curry-lebron-james/
Top 15 players by some type of amalgamation of advanced metrics. (I just looked at the pictures)
Play Wiggins more with the bench and less next to curry and klay, get him being aggressive next to Poole and kuminga. Sub in GP2 and Otto to play next to curry and klay and let Poole gp2 iggy Wiggins and kuminga be the second unit, feel like the offense will be more balanced
Jazz stats:
Offense:
1 in points scored!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (114.7)
7 in points in paint!!!!!!!! (48.7)
26 in fastbreak points (9.7)
1 in offensive efficiency!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2 in shooting % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (47.4%)
6 in three point % !!!!!!!!!! (36.3%)
1 in two point % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (57.4%)
8 in off. rebound % !!!!! (24.0%)
6 in def. rebound % !!!!!!!!! (78.6%)
2 in total rebound % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (52.4%)
3 in opponent blocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (4.1)
11 in opponent steals (7.4)
25 in assists (22.3)
19 in turnovers (14.2)
Defense:
12 in points allowed (107.4)
16 in opponent points in paint (46.6)
14 in opponent fastbreak points (11.8)
10 in defensive efficiency!!
11 in opponent shooting % (44.8%)
9 in opponent three point % !!!! (34.1%)
9 in opponent two point % !!!! (51.5%)
11 in blocks (5.0)
25 in steals (6.9)
8 in opponent assists!!!!! (23.1)
30 in opponent turnovers (11.9)
Felt like the Warriors had the tiebreaker all but locked up after that win in Utah, but Draymond's injury certainly changed things. Win this one and they'll probably still have it. Hopefully Gobert is out.
IIRC, the Dubs did change their offense a bit in the '17 and '18 playoffs, and featured much more Durant/Curry PNR and Durant isos. I think Kerr once again is playing the long game and will keep some of the tricks in his bag until the games really count. If we can stave off any serious injuries to our key guys, WGBC.
Hey, how about a DNHQ T-shirt?
Brilliant article and analysis. Thank you! I read most everything about the Warriors. You and the entire crew are the best in the business.
Interesting analysis on the different types of offenses. If accurate, then the fact that Warriors play a different style means they should win some games on unfamiliarity alone, much like a left-handed tennis player. OTOH, after so many years successfully playing this style, there are well-scouted counters - at this point, doubling and pressuring Steph, preparing to jump passing lanes, playing quick, long-armed defenders (yeah, if you have them!).
2 suggestions: (1) regularly put Curry in one of those isolation/sensory deprivation chambers he was reported to use a few years ago - he needs some quiet time; and (2) have Brown and Atkinson assume head coaching duties for a couple of games in a row, or have the players coach themselves (perhaps less obviously than in that game against Phoenix a couple of years ago). This latter suggestion is in keeping with Kerr's insistence on "role players" getting some attention and can offer some nuance to what Kerr is doing.
Nice article. I have always been a big believer in the Warriors philosophy on both sides of the ball. To sum up both, I see Kerr as a card counter. All things being equal (possessions), if your offensive FG% is higher and your opponents FG% is lower, you will likely win. Thus, make a bad shot a good shot and a good shot a great shot and the reverse against one's opponent. HOW they go about that is what it is, but both styles, offensive and defensive, are geared to accomplish the card counting goal = better percentages.
While I would love to wax poetic about the Warrior's offense (and defense), I will stick to the topic of the article: criticism of Kerr. My own criticism is mostly held for rotations and situational personnel. Kerr likes his vets. He's not a 'developmental' coach and he would probably be the first person to tell you. The Dubs addressed this as an organization by shoring up the coaching staff with high end player development coaches. But in game, he will always default to the less skilled veteran who is playing hard and know what they are doing vs. the young talent who will blow an assignment one play, but then win on the next play due to their higher end talent. Either way, you have to take the good with the bad. D Lee's game against Houston was filled with 'you're just not that talented' plays AND 'damn, way to hustle, nice shot' plays. It's good and bad. I tend to believe that someone like Moody could have just as many good & bad plays as D Lee, they would just be different. Blow assignments (bad) and winning plays on talent (good). IN Kerr's world, he would much rather live with "my guy got beat on talent" than "my guy blew his assignment".
My criticism in this area is that it is very hard for young players to get consistent minutes (even if short) in which they are allowed to make a few mistakes without feeling like one mistake will have them DNPed for the next 2 weeks. We could all see at the end of Poole's first year that he improved with the ball in his hands more. Yet we had to put up Wannamaker and even Mannion as Kerr was reluctant to give Poole a little leash.
If the Warriors are going to win a Chip, I feel like JK and Moody should be jumping JTA & Lee in the pecking order. But it's hard to see them getting there based on Kerr's taking 3 years to have any trust in a player.
I have some other minor complaints, but they are all just nitpicking. The Warriors are the only team in the League to play the way they play with 29 other teams all playing a different way. Does anyone know how hard that is, what brass balls it takes to NOT do what everyone else is doing? So yeah, as fans we can always find something to complain about. But big picture, Kerr is the man. He unleashed a system with Steph-Klay-Dray that damn near broke the NBA and is still giving them fits today. How many other coaches in the league would have been willing to go ALL IN on a philosophy that threw out the traditional NBA playbook? Few. Very few.
Yes, I will keep complaining about rotations, situational decisions, a lack of an offensive game plan when their style gets stuck in the mud. That's my God given right as a fan. But at the end of the day, Steve is my guy. I wouldn't want anyone else coaching this team.